Last week, we heard the official word that the New York Yankees had acquired negotiation rights to Japanese infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima. In order for teams to win rights to negotiate with players leaving Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league, they must participate in a silent auction called the posting system. The winning bid goes to the NPB team currently in control of the player’s rights, unless the team cannot sign a major or minor league contract in 30 days.

The Nakajima posting seemed to go by with little fanfare. The Yankees won the rights to negotiate with Nakajima, bidding a paltry $2.5M, and promptly announced their intentions to make him their second utility infielder.

To me, it seems pretty clear the Yankees had no expectations of actually winning the bid. Not only do they lack a position for Nakajima, they have already been rumored to be seeking a trade partner. On top of that, their bid was low. I mean: Seriously low:

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Jeff Keppinger considers the meaning of freedom from atop a rocky mount.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Non-Tenders: A Top-Five List
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League
3. Prospecting: John Sickels’ Top-20 List for Seattle

Non-Tenders: A Top-Five List
MLB Trade Rumors has complete lists of both the American and National League non-tenders. These are players with whom teams have decided not to enter aribitration, thus making said players free agents.

Here’s a list of the top-five players to become free agents (with their 2012 ages):

1. Jeff Keppinger, 2B, 32: Excellent contact skills, not-horrid glove. Is a league-average player if BABIP is above, like, .295 or .300.

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Well that didn’t take long. Mere hours after signing Aramis Ramirez to man the hot corner for the next three seasons, the Milwaukee Brewers traded former third baseman Casey McGehee to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Jose Veras. While McGehee exceeded expectations with the Brewers initially — he slumped badly last season — and was eventually replaced by Jerry Hairston Jr. Will a change of scenery resurrect the bat of “Mighty Casey?”

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Dwight Evans is one of the most beloved players in Red Sox history. Known for his class and dignity almost as much as for what he did on the field, the man affectionately known as “Dewey” played more games in a Red Sox uniform than anyone except Carl Yastrzemski. A member of the star-crossed 1975 and 1986 teams, he also played in some of Boston’s most-memorable games.

An underrated hitter throughout much of his career, Evans hit .272/.370/.470, with 385 home runs, and no player in baseball had more extra-base hits during the decade of the 1980s. Widely regarded as he best defensive right fielder of his era, he won eight Gold Gloves. Bill James has called him “one of the most-underrated players in baseball history.”

As good as he was between the lines — his numbers compare favorably to several players enshrined in Cooperstown — Dwight Evans has been an even better husband and father.

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The Red Sox seem keen on moving Daniel Bard to the rotation, a move that — despite his lackluster results as a Minor League starter — seems like a good decision. But, since Daisuke Matsuzaka will be unable to take the ball at the season’s outset, the Sox are still in need of a fifth starter. In house candidates such as Alfredo Aceves, Felix Doubront, Andrew Miller and Kyle Weiland abound, but since they all project as below-average options, rumors of external candidates continue to percolate, particularly via the trade market. One new(er) name is Wandy Rodriguez.

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Episode 113
While the Winter Meetings produced a number of high-profile deals — including, for example, the Albert Pujols signing by the Los Angeles Angels — some other notable transactions have occurred in the four or so days since then. In fact, Monday afternoon saw reports of third baseman Aramis Ramirez signing a three-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. Managing Editor Dave Cameron discusses that, Matt Moore’s long-term extension with the Tampa Bay Rays, Rafael Furcal, and more.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 24 min. play time.)

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Sometimes there seem to be two separate branches of saber-oriented blogging: one that uses sabermetric tools to analyze current events (player transactions, in-game strategic choices, etc.), and another which focuses on more theoretical issues (e.g., specific hitting and pitching metrics). Obviously, the latter is supposed to ground the former, but there still seems to be something of a disconnect between the two levels in popular perception. I say this because I was recently part of a discussion in which some were pointing out the superiority of linear weights run estimators for individual hitters to the approach of Bill James’ Runs Created. Someone then made a comment to the effect that this was simply a nit-picking preference for a “pet metric” that really did not make that much of a practical difference.

Sabermetrics is far from being a “complete” science in any area. Debates about how best to measure pitching and fielding are obvious examples of this. With respect to run estimators, there is a greater level of consensus. However, because of the progress (at least relative to pitching and hitting) that has been made with run estimators for offense, that also means there is less of a difference between the metrics. However, it does make a difference. Rather than arguing for one approach to run estimation over another, I want to simply look at a few different free agents from the current off-season to see what sort of difference using one simple run estimator rather than another would make on a practical level.

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Last season, it was a common point of view that Yuniesky Betancourt and the Brewers’ massive weakness at shortstop would be the doom for Milwaukee’s bid at competitiveness. As bad as Betancourt was, the real reason the Brewers needed a 22-3 stretch in August to overtake the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League Central crown was the struggles of Casey McGehee at third. McGehee put up an atrocious .223/.280/.346 line — a 68 wRC+ — and was eventually replaced by Jerry Hairston Jr. come the playoffs.

The Brewers moved earlier to fill their need at shortstop, signing Alex Gonzalez to a one-year deal with a vesting option. Today, the Brewers completed the left side of their 2012 infield, adding Aramis Ramirez on a three-year deal worth somewhere between $34 million and $37 million — that is, you the readers were pretty dang close.

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Former Chicago Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez will sign a three-year contract with the Milwaukee Brewers, reports Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago.

No terms have been released. Let’s try and guess.

FanGraphs readers projected something in the vicinity of a three-year, $36 million deal for Ramirez in the beginning of November.

FanGraphs readers have projected Ramirez to be a 2.8-win player in 2012. Assuming a 0.5 WAR decline each season and 5% inflation each season on $5 million per win, we’d expect this:

Year	WAR	$/Win	Salary
2012	2.8	5.00	$14.0
2013	2.3	5.25	$12.1	
2014	1.8	5.52	$9.9
Total	6.9	----	$36.0

So, in both caes, three years and $36 million — or an average annual value of $12 million — would appear to make sense.

UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal reports that the deal is in the $34M to $37M range.

On Saturday night, news broke that Ryan Braun failed a drug test during the playoffs, and unless he becomes the first player to successfully win an appeal, he’ll be suspended for the first 50 games of the 2012 season. Braun’s camp has issued a statement claiming he’ll be exonerated, saying:

“There are highly unusual circumstances surrounding this case which will support Ryan’s complete innocence and demonstrate there was absolutely no intentional violation of the program. While Ryan has impeccable character and no previous history, unfortunately, because of the process we have to maintain confidentiality and are not able to discuss it any further, but we are confident he will ultimately be exonerated.”

Since the news broke, we’ve heard reports that the failed drug test was for a banned substance, not a performance enhancing drug. We’ve also heard that his testosterone levels were “insanely high“, and that a second test showed that the extra testosterone in his system was synthetic, not natural.

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