Archive for December, 2011

Offseason Notes for December 21st


Casey Blake is thrilled to have his name in this edition of Offseason Notes.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Prospecting: John Sickels’ Top-20 List for Boston
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Miami Television

Assorted Headlines
Colorado Signs Third Baseman Blake
The Colorado Rockies have signed 38-year-old third baseman Casey Blake to a one-year, $2 million contract, reports MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. Provided he can stay healthy — and, really, even if he can’t — Blake is likely to be worth the money pretty quickly: he hasn’t been worth less than a win since 2002, in which season he tallied only 22 plate appearances. He compiled a 1.1 WAR in just 239 plate appearances last season with the Dodgers.

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Q&A: Justin Masterson, Rhapsodic Masterpiece

Bob Dylan wasn’t thinking of Justin Masterson when he wrote “When I Paint My Masterpiece” — the Indians right-hander wasn’t even born yet — but it’s fun to imagine. Dylan sings about how someday everything is going to be smooth like a rhapsody, and isn’t that how Masterson pitches? Or how he lives his life? To Masterson, the world is a rhapsody and that’s why he is one of baseball’s most engaging personalities.

——

David Laurila: Is pitching fun?

Justin Masterson: Absolutely. I feel like it’s one of the most fun things, simply because, in one respect, it’s you out there by yourself. You’ve got your catcher kind of giving you a hint of what he’d like you to throw, but it’s your final decision. You’re facing this hitter — maybe it’s a clutch situation — and it’s just mano-a-mano. Once a pitch has left your hand it becomes a team game — maybe you’ll get a ground ball — but up until that point it’s just you going after that hitter. That, to me, is a lot of fun.

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FanGraphs Audio: Tom Haberstroh, NBA Nerd

Episode 119
Sources close to FanGraphs Audio report that the 2011-12 NBA season is mere days away. To acquaint us with same, we bring in a kindred spirit: ESPN NBA analyst Tom Haberstroh. Topics discussed: the Chris Paul Situation, the Denver Nuggets and scoring efficiency, notable rookies.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 38 min. play time.)

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat


Mike Newman Prospects Chat – 12/20/11


Can WPA Explain How Teams Buy Relievers?

Over the last decade, much of team behavior has, sooner or later, matched up with new sabermetric discoveries. The Athletics’ “Moneyball” focus on on-base percentage is no longer a secret; teams have begun to quantify the value of defense and spend accordingly; arbitration-eligible players have become more valuable on the trade market. But there is one area in which sabermetric findings quite clearly do not mesh with team behavior, regardless of general managerial regime: spending on relief pitching. At least using Wins Above Replacement, it just doesn’t make much sense. Whereas every non-pitching position on the diamond — as well as starting pitchers — make roughly the same amount per WAR, relief pitchers are on another level, frequently making three to four times more per WAR than other players.

This only doesn’t make sense, however, if we think of teams as buyers of WAR. They aren’t. The teams with the most WAR, although typically in a very, very good spot, will not necessarily win the most games. Teams buy real wins, and the best way we have to measure real wins is with Win Probability Added.

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Making Sense of the Giants’ Off-Season Moves

I can’t. Make sense of the Giants’ off-season moves, that is.

Last season, the Giants were 28th in the majors in wOBA (.294), 29th in wRC+ (83) and 29th in runs scored (570). Yes, the Giants lost Buster Posey at the end of May and Freddy Sanchez in June to season-ending injuries, and they lost Pablo Sandoval — their most effective hitter — for six weeks in the early part of the season. But the Giants added Carlos Beltran at the end of July, and after a slow start due to a wrist injury, Beltran posted a .404 wOBA over his final 161 plate appearances. The Giants simply couldn’t overcome career-worst seasons from Aaron Rowand and Miguel Tejada, who were released at the end of August, and poor offensive performances from Aubrey Huff and Andres Torres.

The only other teams with sub-.300 wOBAs in 2011 were the Mariners, Padres, Twins and Pirates, all of whom ended the season with losing records. The Giants finished 86-76 on the strength of their pitching. Obviously. So heading into 2012, the Giants were sure to focus on significantly upgrading the offense, right?

Not really.

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Inefficiencies, Moral Hazards: The NPB Posting System

On Monday night, the Nippon Ham Fighters announced they would accept the Texas Rangers’ $51.7M bid for 25-year-old right hander Yu Darvish. The decision ended a months-long rumorfest concerning Japan’s best pitcher last season — and put on full display the oddity that is the Nippon Professional Baseball posting system.

Much digital ink has spilled in service to the tricky nature of the MLB-NPB player transfer process. It stinks of inefficiencies; it dances around yet-fully-realized moral hazards; and it is, quite possibly and quite rightly, nearing its demise.
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Offseason Notes for December 20th


Sean Burroughs and Jose Lopez are two peas in a weird, giant pod.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League
3. Time-Wasting Quiz: Sean Burroughs vs. Jose Lopez

Assorted Headlines
Baltimore Signs Richardson
The Baltimore Orioles have signed outfielder Antoan Richardson (along with three others) to minor-league deals, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. I mention it because I remember that Richardson, 28, used to have incredibly favorable fielding projections per CHONE, when that was still public. In the last available iteration of CHONE, released in August of 2010, Richardson was projected for +17 defensive runs in just 111 games/336 plate appearances.

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Who Will Play Center in St. Louis?

Does anyone want to go to St. Louis? After losing Albert Pujols to the Los Angeles Angels, it was unclear how the reigning champs would respond this off-season. Instead of going after the other marquee free-agents, the Cardinals appear to be shoring up their team through smaller moves. With the uncertainty surrounding Allen Craig — who had knee surgery in November — the Cardinals are looking to add outfielders. The Cardinals have been linked to both Coco Crisp and Carlos Beltran in recent days. Would signing either player be a good decision for the World Series champs?

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