2012 FAN Projections Now Open!
It’s the first day of December, which means it’s time to once again open the FAN Projection ballots!
Before you can project any players, you’ll have to select the team you follow most closely towards the top of the screen. If you really don’t follow a team, just pick one. You’ll only have to do this once.
After you’ve selected a team, there are 9 categories for pitchers and 10 categories for position players. Pick the values in the drop-down boxes closest to what you think the player will do in 2012, hit the submit button and you’re done! If you made a mistake, you can always go back and change your selection at any time.
Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.
That’s really all there is to it. You can filter players by team, or if you go to the player pages, you can project players individually. If you want to see all the players you’ve projected, you can click on the “My Rankings” button which will show you only what you specifically projected a player to do.
Fan Projections will show up on the player pages after there have been 15 ballots submitted.
If you do notice any issues, please let us know.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
On games played do you want us to consider games started, games appeared in, or just divide PA’s by 3.5 ?
Generally the end numbers work out more like games started. PA in the projection calculation are somewhat dependent on batting order too.
How can I forecast that a player will have a strikeout rate of 10.5%?
Basically, for this exercise you just don’t need to be as precise as 10.5%, so I wouldn’t stress over it too much. Just pick the range you think is most likely to happen.
The problem is that the ranges go from 8-10 and 11-13. If we think they will be in between 10 and 11, which one should we choose? Does it mean 8-10.999 and 11-13 or 8-10.499 and 10.5-13?
(P.S. I realize we’re not supposed to be super precise, but I think it could make a small difference in projections)
If it’s 10.4%, choose 10. If it’s 10.6%, choose 11.
In other words, look at the midpoint of the ranges: 8-10 means 9, and 11-13 means 12. So, 10.4 is closer to 9 and 10.6 is closer to 12.
If it’s 10.5%, flip a coin.
I’d say that the difference between 9% and 12% is somewhat substantial, especially if I want to pick 10.5%.
I’d like a slider bar with some range where the user could set the midpoint (10.5% +/- 1.5%)
In the My Rankings area is it possible to add a sorting functionality to the various columns?
For AA and AAA, I’m really interested to crowd source MLB play time. Will minor leaguers be opened up to projections, or are we limited to guys on the are currently listed?
Sorry, another little nitpick. Is there any reason why we can’t choose a below-2 ERA for pitchers? I’m not sure if this applies to anyone but Mariano Rivera, but it does seem to apply to him, considering he’s has an ERA below 2 in 8 of the past 9 years. Thanks.
Why is there no option to put saves in for closers? In the algorithm you guys use to determine saves, how do you predict a team’s save opportunities?
Also, is the raw data available, so that we can see what spot in the batting order everybody submitted? You can’t average that kind of thing so either all of the data or the two most popular predictions (and what % of the vote they got) would be extremely useful. It would also be useful to see how you project R/RBI.