2012 Trade Value: #25-#21
So, from the land of embarrassing mistakes comes this – I screwed up yesterday and copied the wrong part of the list in to the #30-#26 post and didn’t catch it until this morning. Kipnis, Moore, Upton, Moustakas, and Gio were actually 25-21, and for whatever reason, I simply grabbed those five when transposing the post into WordPress and didn’t notice that I had copied the wrong section. So, this post is actually presenting #30-#26 again. Feel free to call me an idiot in the comments. I certainly feel like one.
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26
Note: salaries are rounded estimates and include all team-controlled years. Rankings from the 2011 Trade Value series in parentheses.
30. (30) Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas – Signed through 2017 for $76 million.
The Rangers second baseman got a big contract extension over the winter and is having the worst offensive season of his career, but he remains in the same spot he occupied a year ago, as he was probably just a bit too low last year. At 30, he’s headed towards the downside of his career, but he’s still a highly productive middle infielder who can hit, field, and run the bases, and the extension he got pales in comparison to some of the recent big deals that similarly valuable players have received. While he might not still be a productive player by the end of the contract, he’s good enough now to make a big difference for many contenders, and the salary is low enough that he’s still producing surplus value for the next several seasons.
29. (NR) Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore – Under Team Control for 6+ Years
Yes, he’s a pitcher in A-ball. Yes, there are a ton of risks that go along with inexperienced teenage arms. Bundy is not your normal 19-year-old, however. The stuff is terrific, but he’s advanced beyond his years as a pitcher, and several team officials told me that they’d have him in their big league rotation right now. This is higher than I’m comfortable putting an A-ball pitching prospect, to be honest, but I was convinced to move him up by folks in the game who insist that he’s ready to get big league hitters out right now. Given the upside, there are a lot of teams that would love to take a risk on Dylan Bundy.
28. (NR) Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas – Under Team Control for 6+ Years
If you push a 19-year-old to Double-A, the hope is that they can just hold their own. Profar has gone beyond that and just dominated the league instead, posting a 140 wRC+ that makes him a top five hitter in the league, and the four guys ahead of him are legit power hitting prospects or minor league veterans. Profar makes contact, has power, draws walks, and might be a good enough shortstop to force Elvis Andrus out of the way, which is saying something indeed. He doesn’t have Mike Trout’s speed, and you shouldn’t expect any prospect to flourish the way Trout has this season, but it’s not crazy to say that Profar is a similar type of hitter, with the added ability to play shortstop as well.
27. (40) Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado – Signed through 2017 for $74 million
There’s no question that Gonzalez derives a large benefit from playing in Denver, and he wouldn’t hit as well if he was traded back to sea level. However, even after you adjust for his home park, he’s a 26-year-old running a 157 wRC+, showing that his 2010 season wasn’t a complete fluke. Gonzalez has developed into one of the game’s best offensive performers, and he’s one of the premier power/speed guys in the game today. His defense is still not fantastic, but for a team looking for a young hitter to build around, Gonzalez wouldn’t be a bad place to start. I will readily admit that I was wrong about the $80 million extension that the Rockies gave him last year, which looks like a pretty good deal in retrospect.
26. (7) Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati – Signed through 2023 for $246 million
With a 10 year, $225 million extension that doesn’t even kick in until 2014, Votto became one of the most expensive players in the sport. However, because he’s still just 28, the cost of the deal is deferred well into the future, and any team acquiring him would essentially be getting the best hitter in baseball at bargain rates for the next half decade or so. There’s a ton of value in the front of this contract, and so while the last few years are likely going to bring negative returns, large revenue franchises would love to have him even with his new sticker price. There might not be a large quantity of bidders, but several teams would pay a high price to add Votto to their line-up right now and deal with the financial consequences in 2020 and beyond when that gets here.
And, for those who missed the post yesterday afternoon, here is the real #25-#21, with their write-ups from the #26-#30 post.
25. (NR) Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland – Under Team Control through 2017
When the Indians drafted Kipnis out of Arizona State, he was seen as a tweener outfielder without the speed to play center or the power to play left. So, a few months after selecting him in the third round, the Indians moved him to second base, and are now being rewarded for their foresight. Kipnis has gotten a lot better at second in a hurry, and now profiles as an average to above average defender at an up-the-middle position, and provides the kind of offense (122 wRC+ over 541 MLB plate appearances) you don’t often get from a player at the keystone. Kinpis is a classic good-across-the-board guy, combining gap power with walks and improving contact rates while also being a highly efficient baserunner. In many ways, he profiles as the new Ian Kinsler, and as a 25-year-old with five more seasons of team control, the Indians will be able to get a lot of value from Kipnis without paying a high price to do so.
24. (NR) Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay – Signed through 2019 for $36 million
On the field, Moore has been a pretty big disappointment this year, struggling with command problems and showing that he wasn’t quite as polished as he looked down the stretch last year. However, he’s still a lefty with a mid-90s fastball who can miss bats, and teams haven’t forgotten how dominant he was in 2011, so a disappointing rookie season hasn’t shattered his value yet. And then, there’s the contract. In typical Rays fashion, they signed Moore extremely early in exchange for getting team options on his final arbitration year and his first two free agent years, so they’re only on the hook for about $15 million if he never develops. If he does, they’ve essentially got him locked up through age 30 at bargain rates (though there are a lot of incentives built into the deal, so knowing the precise amount ahead of time is impossible). He’s a higher risk guy without the performance track record of many others around him, but he also comes with extremely high reward due to the financial limitations he’s agreed to. If he does turn into an ace, he could end up near the very top of this list in a few years.
23. (5) Justin Upton, OF, Arizona – Signed through 2015 for $42 million.
This ranking is about to be put to the test, as everyone is aware that the Diamondbacks are currently shopping Upton around baseball and will likely trade him at some point in 2012. A year ago, it seemed hard to imagine the D’Backs giving up on their star right fielder, but another mediocre season has made Upton seem like an underachiever once again, so any team acquiring him would be making a bet on a big comeback after changing teams. The talent is certainly there, but he’s no longer all that cheap — the last three years of his contract total $39 million — and has a spotty record hitting away from Chase Field. There’s a lot of risk to be absorbed by any acquiring team, but potential franchise players aren’t moved in their mid-20s too often, especially when they’re not close to free agency. Whether Upton will command a star player’s return or will be shipped off for less than his talent would suggest remains to be seen, but we should have a better idea of how baseball views Upton later this year.
22. (NR) Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City – Under Team Control through 2017
Moustakas was awful during the early part of his rookie season last year, but found his power stroke late in the season and hasn’t slowed down in 2012. He’s still not a finished product, but he’s flashing a combination of above average offense and terrific defense at age 23, and has shown very good contact skills in prior years as well. If he can get back to those lower strikeout rates while sustaining his power output, he may very well may be the new Adrian Beltre, or at least a player of similar value. Because of when he was called up last season, Moustakas may end up as a Super Two, qualifying for arbitration four times and accelerating his pay schedule, but the Royals still control his rights for five more years and have a young star in place at third. Even if he doesn’t remain overly cheap for more than a year or two, he’s still a highly valuable commodity.
21. (NR) Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington – Signed through 2018 for $65 million
I wasn’t a big fan of the Gio Gonzalez trade for the Nationals, but kudos to Mike Rizzo and his staff for anticipating the breakout pitching star of 2012 and getting him while they still could. Gio’s velocity is up and he’s throwing first pitch strikes, which has led to a huge spike in strikeout rate and a reduction in walks, and the overall package has seen Gio pitch like a legitimate ace. His command is still not fantastic, and previous history suggests that he may not be able to keep this up forever, but Gonzalez looks like a better pitcher than I gave him credit for over the winter. To boot, the contract Washington signed him to now looks like a pretty big steal, as he would have been in for a hefty raise via arbitration, but is now looking at a salary of just $6 million in 2013 with manageable raises for the following three seasons, and then two team options at the end of that. There’s room for Gonzalez to regress and still be worth the contract, and if he keeps pitching like he is right now, he’ll be a huge steal for years to come.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Think i would take Profar over Moose tacos and bet most guys would too. I’m not even sure who is better right now and Profar is cheaper for longer. just my 2 cents
Ditto. Mous wasn’t as highly touted as a prospect and is only a year removed from the minors, I think Profar’s position and success at such a young age pushes him above Moustakas in my book. Not sure what happens in the middle to bridge the gap cause I like the other guys more than Profar, so I guess I’d probably have to say Mous is a bit higher than I’d list him.
he’s only a year removed from the minors…and kicking ass. Important detail.
I’d have Profar well above Bundy, however.
Dave, I am not going to call you an idiot. In fact, while we disagree on quite a few things, I’m going to say that you are absolutely one of the best analysts in all of sports, and if someone with the consistently fantastic level of analysis that you have doesn’t deserve a few mulligans now and then, no one does. Keep up the good work.
Agreed, and while I think your stubborness sometimes gets in the way of the truth your knowledge is beyond impressive; it’s frightening. And even though I think your ego gets in the way of the truth and scientific process sometimes now and then (we are all human) ego is important to being great. You are the greatest sabermetric mind of our generation. Your work on roster constuction is groundbreaking, and your understanding of player values is unparralelled. I would say that the next step in player evaluation is to add body types and existing injury history in along with age, skillset and production.
“You are the greatest sabermetric mind of our generation.” I just shot milk out of my nose, and I haven’t been drinking any milk.
There is a line between respect and ass-kissing.
What the hell?? Why are there now 2 sets of 26-30 and a list of 21-25 with a repeat of one of the 26-30 lists??!?! Get it together, Cameron.
Reading comprehension is not a talent of yours, I see.
Sarcasm is not a language you comprehend, I see
Pretty sure that’s not sarcasm, Joe.
Pretty sure it is, MDL.
……………………………..
it’s addressed in the first sentence…….
troll everdiso alert
that ain’t me.
Consider a name change, mate.
no joke. I’ve yet to post a response to any of this excellent top-50 trade value series until the last 15 minutes.
Don’t try and deflect blame fake-everdiso. I don’t know why your trying to put words in my mouth, but I meant what I said.
you’re a dummy and a weirdo.
c-c-c-c-c-c-combo breaker
Just speaking hypothetically. If I had a sudden impulse to start using the name “troll everdiso”, would that make me a bad person?
If there is really an everdiso troll, not a multiple personality or some kind of joke, why doesn’t the real everdiso just use a different pseudonym.
I find it hard to believe that a real person would have such an attachment to an obscure moniker.
For the record, I am convinced this post is a joke.
i dont know whats real anymore
Don’t believe this impostor. I actually believe it is real.
Fangraphs most likely (although I’m not sure on this) could get the IP address from the everdiso posts and tell us if they came from the same spot … that is if anyone actually cared.
yes, it would be fairly easy to do. if they cared.
But how would we know which IP address is which? And what if there are dozens of everdiso’s?
You may laugh, FWB-E, but I have seen a fake WB-E post before. My sympathy for real-everdiso is heightened as a result.
Its really just pathetic that some people have to come online and sully the reputation of one a website’s most revered and respected members just to gain some sort of minimal personal satisfaction.
heh. you are pretty good at this trolling, I’ll give you that. And the effort and talent you put to use is still very flattering.
“most revered and respected”
heh. that IS pretty funny.
But it’s true. My comments may get thumbs downed sometimes but it doesn’t mean I am not respected overall. I bring a lot to this site. You, however, just troll other names for a cheap laugh. Pathetic really.
you were on a good troll streak there but that last post messed it up. you can do better than that.
Now you’re trying too hard.
will both of you troll jerks shut up already? clearly the real everdiso is I.
I bet the fake everdiso is probably that same loser who posted all of those FireJoeMorgan-esque comments last year under different minor Seinfeld character names. Does anybody remember that guy? It was funny for about an hour or two, but then it was just pathetic.
doppelganger, obviously there are multiple fake everdisos just as there were multiple Seinfeld guys.
Yeah, in this post there are clearly multiple fake everdisos, but I’m pretty sure it’s been primarily the same person doing most of them every day for the last few weeks just like it was primarily the same person who did all the Seinfeld things last year. It had to be the same person most of the time because he kept on doing it for weeks after everyone was well past the point of being annoyed with it. Whatever, it ‘s actually very stupid for me to post this. I should just ignore it.
I am everdiso
I’m everdiso and so’s my wife!
I was blind, but now I can see!
LOL, Spartacus.
I have to agree with your concerns about Bundy. How many A ball pitchers have put up gaudy numbers? Furthermore, his numbers in A+ haven’t been all that spectacular. Yes, they’ve been excellent, but if you’re going to rank a 19 year old in A+ the 29th most trade valuable player in baseball, he better look like the second coming of Jesus Christ (like Bundy’s low A stats were).
One thing I’ve read about Bundy is that he’s shelved his cutter/slider in the interest of focusing on his other offspeed offerings. It’s supposedly his best pitch. Linkage, and I’ve read it elsewhere as well: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/scouting-dylan-bundy/
Hm, that’s interesting. I hadn’t heard that. That could explain the merely great numbers in high A. Thanks
Could Texas be any more stacked?
You mean Alexis Texas?
Alexis Texas; do you mean stacked or stuffed, or both.
We’ll find out in the next few weeks #uptonandhamelsplease
Yes.
If nothing else, it makes more sense to find (what I assume will be the only) two prospects in the lower 20s than the upper 20s.
Yes, I was honestly perplexed by the thought that Profar could be at the same level this year as Harper was last year, especially given the methodological adjustment. I still think the prospects listed here are all aggressively ranked.
I agree. Especially Bundy. You know what they say about pitching prospects…
I’m extremely shocked by Votto being on there and the justification is extraordinarily confusing with regards to the fact Adrian Gonzalez was left off the list entirely last year.
Votto is a phenomenal talent, but the back end of that deal has extreme albatross potential.
Comparing the two, I just see a massive disconnect on how Votto could make this year’s list while Gonzalez missed last year’s. Votto’s numbers are better this year than Gonzalez’s were last year, but not enough so that I could see any reasonable justification for ranking Votto in the top 25 while leaving Gonzalez off entirely last year.
Considering I recall Gonzalez’s long term deal being the primary justification for leaving him off, how can one justify putting Votto on here when Votto is contracted for (At minimum) over $100MM more than Gonzalez was at the time of last year’s rankings (Gonzalez will be 36 in the last year of his deal, sticking his team with maybe two years of decline phase, Votto’s team will be on the hook for five years of decline phase at $25MM per, that’s ridiculous).
Votto’s an elite player and probably the best 1B in the game right now, but I don’t see how that contract is remotely tradeable.
*Top 30, missed that blurb about the ordering screw up.
Re: Votto vs. Adrian Gonzalez from last year – they mentioned at the start of the series that their ranking methodology has been adjusted to better represent real-world MLB valuation. From the 2011 series recap: “The other changes with this year’s list are probably going to be more along the lines of a shift towards valuing production somewhat more strongly and slightly reducing the emphasis of low cost salaries.”
I fully agree. Dave has indicated that he is talking about trade value to somebody, not necessarily everybody. There are very rich teams who wouldn’t blink an eye at paying way too much for Votto’s later years in order to have him at a reasonable price today.
Well, Dave explained thoroughly that his opinion on contracts holding value down have changed. There’s basically a whole post on it, so I think the inconsistencies you have observed were to be expected.
Fair enough, missed that part.
That aside, I still probably wouldn’t have included Votto, at the least not this high. I really can’t imagine a real world situation where any other team would trade for him and his current contract. The only exception being MAYBE the Dodgers, but they might be hesitant considering they need to extend Kershaw and they just extended Kemp and Ethier.
I think you’re pretty significantly underestimating the market value of this kind of player. Prince Fielder can’t carry Joey Votto’s jock, and he got 9/214 last winter. You’re treating Votto’s contract like it’s some kind of albatross. In reality, had he been a free agent, he’d have probably gotten another $75 to $100 million.
I think it’s just a tad unrealistic to suggest that had Votto been a FA he’d get between $321 million and 346. That would be bigger than the A-rod contracts and Votto isn’t worth that, even if he is one of the best in baseball.
I get you’re suggesting he’d make more as a FA, which is fine, but there simply isn’t a chance anybody would spend $300M on Votto.
It’s a combination of a few factors.
1. Votto is a lot better than Adrian Gonzalez. It’s not a small difference. Votto’s career wRC+ is 155 – Gonzalez has only matched that in a single season once, back in 2010, when he put up a 156. Votto is currently performing at a level that Gonzalez has never gotten close to, and his track record is much stronger. Gonzalez is a good hitter, but he’s never been the best hitter in baseball.
2. On an AAV basis, their contracts are basically equal, with both making $22 million per year on average. Whether a team can afford a player is more often based on whether his salary fits into the team’s budget than on length of the deal. Any team that could afford Gonzalez could also afford Votto. The deal is longer, yes, but given that Votto is a better player (more surplus value up front) and a year younger, the contracts aren’t all that different.
3. I talked about this in the “What I Learned” post, but based on feedback from some folks in the game, I’ve adjusted the penalty applied to good players with big contracts. With the explosion of new revenue from TV deals, a lot of these contracts look better in a few years than they do when they get signed, which is why you see expensive other expensive guys like Carlos Gonzalez climbing the list and Kinsler not dropping even after he gets his $75 million deal.
Given the changes to the way the list is made and the fact that Votto is both younger and a lot better than Gonzalez, I’m okay with the difference.
When you add in defense the gap closes. Their WAR values are really close 09-11. Votto by a bit. 18.9-18.
GMs aren’t going to add in the defense. Or at least they’ll weight it a lot less.
In the prelude to the series, Dave’s already addressed the methodological changes he’s made to this year’s series based on the mistakes he felt he made in last year’s series. Here’s the link for your perusal:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-i-learned-from-the-2011-trade-value-series/
The point is that, in hindsight, perhaps Dave feels that Gonzalez should have made last year’s list. Read that post and perhaps that will remove all of your “shock” and “confusion” about Votto being on this year’s list and Gonzalez being absent from last year’s list.
Although he didn’t say so explicitly, I see Dave’s change mainly as finally resolving the ambiguity he has had in past incarnations of this list between the players’ real-word trade value and their should-be trade value. Last year’s list in particular was rife with waffling between the two.
Going either way would have been OK, but it is good that he chose one.
I also congratulate him on admitting mistakes. A very high percentage of writers will argue to the death before admitting that they were ever wrong.
As far as copying the wrong 5 goes, that is the kind of mistake all of us make sometimes (at least I certainly do). I’m glad he owned up to it.
I’m also a little surprised that he’s included. If he was put on waivers and a team could pick up his contract without giving up any players, how many teams would even put in a claim? I could be vastly underestimating him, but I would think most teams would pass because that contract looks like it can wreak havoc in a few years.
But Dave’s criteria is what some teams would do, not most teams.
29. Even the lowest revenue club would pick him up on waivers in a heartbeat.
We are generally measuring value in terms of ‘$ cost per WAR produced’ – a good way of doing so really but there are two things to consider when coming up with trade value.
Average $ cost per WAR the price teams are willing to pay ON AVERAGE. Some teams may be spending $4m per WAR, others 5, 6, 7, or 8.
WAR measures players performance in relation to a theoretical replacement level player. Teams look to acquire players based on the ACTUAL player that will be replaced.
Joey Votto might produce the exact amount of WAR over the life of the contract that he is paid to do, which would result in 0 surplus value. Even still he might have surplus value because he produces more WAAP (Wins Above Actual Player) than WAR for a team that is willing to spend a greater $ amount per WAR than average.
re: Votto, it’s mentioned that the back end of his deal is likely to bring negative returns.
I’ve seen analysts say this (or something close to it) about many players who sign huge long term deals (Votto, Prince, Pujols, etc.). I’m curious how much, if at all, this type of analysis accounts for the likely inflation of the cost per marginal win between now and 2020?
Generally, the accepted figure I’ve seen today is $5M per marginal win. If that number is 6, 6.5, or even higher in 2020, doesn’t that make the back end of this type of deal much more reasonable?
Potentially, however, we have to account for the fact that inflation doesn’t always occur in salaries.
Back in 2007, we were on track for massive salary inflation. Then the economy tanked and that salary inflation got curbed, by and large, with a few exceptions which have all generally been regarded as massive overpays.
Add in the wrinkle of the new CBA, which will likely act to even further prevent inflation considering even big market teams like the Yankees are trying to get below the luxury tax by 2014. Realistically, with the new CBA in place, I can’t imagine anyone giving even Votto much more than the $25MM annually he’s getting, particularly for his post peak years.
Yes, one could easily argue that there’s massive savings on the front end of the deal, but you’re only really getting those savings for four years at the expense of six years of, at best, market value (And at worst, outright albatross considering how specifically the massive raise coincides with his probable decline phase).
The extraordinarily minimal amount of MLB (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Phillies, Detroit) teams that could conceivably afford Votto’s back end years already have an expensive 1B locked up through the cheap years of Votto’s deal. The only team I could consider being able to afford him that doesn’t already have a 1B capable of producing maybe 75% of Votto’s production is the Dodgers.
Again, great player, but he has probably the third most immovable contract of a productive player in the MLB (Behind only Pujols and A-Rod, not counting guys like Crawford or Wells since they’re immovable due to poor production rather than just their contracts).
Teams that would answer the phone on Votto before the first ring finished: Texas, Miami, St. Louis, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Washington, Baltimore, Toronto, LA Dodgers, Seattle, NY Mets. There would be a market.
How dare you say Kinsler is having the worst offensive year of his career! That completely glosses over how terrible he’s been in the field, too.
So, I think this is a good opportunity to clear up some confusion that I and maybe some others have about the list.
Is this a descriptive list or a prescriptive list?
In other words, is Dave saying that if the Orioles made Dylan Bundy available right now, they would get a bigger return than if Texas did the same with Ian Kinsler?
Or, is Dave saying that, if all GMs in baseball were perfectly rational, than Bundy would get a bigger return, because he has more surplus value?
I’m guessing it’s the latter, because I just don’t see any way how Bundy would actually bring back more than Kinsler if they were both available right now. But then why call it a “trade value” list?
lol, hanging html tag. Makes me look super legit.
More of the former. There’s no assumption of rationality, which is actually why Bundy is ranked as highly as he is. I’d probably put him a bit lower, but MLB teams really covet “aces”, and Bundy is perceived as a future ace.
Fair enough, thanks for the response.
No, Dave explicitly says it was the former in his introductory post.
I think that we’re no longer following the plan to give more credit to MLB production with these. We’ve got 2 guys without and AAA experience in the top-30, and we’ve got Matt Moore’s horrible 2012 up there as well. I would NOT straight-up trade Castro for Profar.
Including Votto in the top-30 with that contract certainly doesn’t jive with what you’re saying. Personally I’d take Profar over Castro and I think there are a lot of teams who would do the same.
Likewise. As a fan of neither team involved, I’d give up more for Profar than I would for Castro.
Why? The trade off, is the projectability of a more patient hitter, better defense and longer control for established Major League success. We KNOW that Castro can hit .300 in MLB that’s more important than patience in AA. Profar gets us more excited, but I think it’s incredibly irrational to say that Profar would get a larger return.
Pretty empty .300 from Castro though, right? I mean, his OBP this season is .312, his first two seasons he was in the .340’s. His power’s minimal, and while I can’t speak to his fielding it sounds like it’s gone from ‘bad’ to ‘not bad’. This isn’t to say Castro isn’t as valuable, but I’m still taking the chance on the 5-tool beast who’s dominating AA at 19 years old.
My complaint is that it seems fans fall into the trap of overrating prospects that they have never seen play before, and undervalue players who have played in MLB for a couple years. The fact we know who Castro is, his shine has warn off. But he’s a 22 year old SS capable of putting up a .773 OPS. That’s insane. He would be a college senior this year, think if he was able to get drafted? There is no question he would go #1 overall. Most all players his age aren’t close to MLB yet, and he was a rookie at 20.
One thing I think people forget about Castro is that he is still projectable. He is still 5 years away from his peak age. People look at a guy who has had to develop in the Major Leagues and see his holes and forget about how impressive he actually is.
Profar is pure excitement. He hasn’t failed yet, but there is a good chance he does at some point. How will he adjust after that? We don’t know but it will have a profound impact on his perception.
How many people here have actually seen Profar play an extended amount? It just seems unreasonable for fans to be confidant that Profar is somehow better, or significantly more valuable.
I think you’re right, ppabich. Everyone thinks this super-hyped prospect is going to hit his ceiling. Some do (see Trout, Mike), but it’s pretty rare.
However, I think Dave’s point would be that GMs are just as susceptible to this fallacy, so sometimes prospects really are overvalued.
Castro hit 7 HR’s in more than 200 mL games and showed limited patience at the plate, with walk rates hovering between 5 and 8%. He was always young for his level, of course, and the contact and speed was obvious, but he didn’t show much else. That’s what we’re seeing in the majors: great contact, good speed, limited power and batting eye.
Profar has been similarly challenged–even moreso when you consider Castro started his age 19 season in A ball while Profar’s been in AA the whole time. Despite that he’s shown considerably more power potential (23 HR’s in 202 games the past 2 seasons), an above-average BB rate (12.6% last year, 11.1% this season), and similarly good speed. He apparently also has an above average glove, something Starlin didn’t (maybe doesn’t?) have.
So while I agree Starlin’s ceiling isn’t yet 100% defined I think he’s following the path scouts expected of him and he’ll be limited to a degree because of the lack of power and patience. With Profar you need to have a bit more patience but all the tools are there for him to be a 5-cat superstar, and as I said before I’m personally taking that risk. Castro might be a top-2 or 3 SS in baseball, whereas Profar may develop into the best player in baseball. And that’s where I see the difference.
Agree with ppabich – prospects are forever overrated, especially in today’s culture where every casual baseball fan is an armchair scout. Prospects – even the cream of the crop – are still significant risks.
“But he’s a 22 year old SS capable of putting up a .773 OPS. That’s insane. He would be a college senior this year, think if he was able to get drafted? There is no question he would go #1 overall.”
You know who’s another 22 year old SS capable of putting up that kind of OPS, with much better on base skills and better defense, yet doesn’t get any credit? Ruben Tejada. His OBP has been around .360 the last two years, and he’s displayed much more doubles power this year than he has in the past. Somehow I doubt he’d go #1 overall though. When it comes down to it, Castro has much more power potential than Tejada and is more exciting as a player, but he also has the type of attributes that lead to a player never fulfilling their potential. 5 years down the road, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tejada’s had a better career than Castro.
Andrelton Simmons, blah… blah… blah!!!!!
In fairness, there’s really only one Braves fan screaming about Simba. Last year, the entire nation of Canada was screaming about Escobar.
The 32 million posts set a record for Fangraphs!
And in fairness to me I said I would stop bringing him up a few lists ago and I haven’t started any of the discussions on him since. I think he clearly deserved to make the backend of the list (seriously, what does Alcides Escobar have on him except a few years sucking in the majors?), but he’s nowhere close to a top 25 guy so it would be kind of dumb to keep bringing him up over and over again.
I’m not buying the argument on Votto. Sure, he may have more trade value than A-Gone or Fielder. But that isn’t saying much, as both of those players’ contracts are immovable (ie, negative surplus value). I can’t see anyone providing significant value to the Reds *and* taking on Votto’s entire contract. Is there any precedent for a team taking on nearly that many years or nearly that many dollars and also giving value in exchange?
Holy Cow I’d give up a TON for Votto, he’s arguably the best player in baseball! Who cares how much he gets paid, if you can afford it you would give the farm for the guy. How much would the Nats give up? Not Harper or Stras, but everyone else is fair game. How much would the Marlins give up? Not Stanton, but everyone else is fair game. If you’re the Giants, outside of Bumgarnder who wouldn’t you give up? Votto is a guy to you give up your minor league system for. Like Dave said earlier, people think about his contract in relation to the Reds, but for teams like the Yankees or Dodgers it’s UNDER value.
Arod?
That cost them Soriano, who wasn’t a massive return and had a rather chunky contract of his own, no?
But I guess the Rangers even paid some of that.
And the main reason why there isn’t a precedent for trades like this is because teams don’t ever trade a guy when he’s the best player in baseball. There is no way the Reds could Justify to their fans that they traded him for Profar and Mike Olt, even though they probably got the better end of that deal.
How much if any is Votto’s value here depressed by his current injury?
Man, if I’m the Orioles, I’m on the phone right now shopping Bundy.
Honestly I’m not even sure I’d take Bundy over Weiters.
Hey Dave, where’s my boy Yuni Betancourt at?!
i hope i speak for everyone when i say… god that joke is old.
Awww, thanks man, I truly do it for the fans!
🙂
Feel like people are getting way too worked up about Votto’s contract and forgetting the fact that he’s the best hitter in all of baseball. Some commenters live in a fairy tale world where every top prospect flourishes to his max potential, you manage to sign every budding star to a cheap contract before he hits FA, and every FA you sign delivers surplus value. That’s not reality, or even close to reality. In some cases you’ve simply gotta open up your wallet when you realize talent, a few million here or there be damned.
well said.
Ugh, this really bothers me: “Even after you adjust for his home park, he’s a 26-year-old running a 157 wRC+, showing that his 2010 season wasn’t a complete fluke”.
It strikes me that to think we understand how to “adjust for his home ballpark” is very arrogant. Baseball in Colorado is a mess, and it does NOT affect all players equally.
CarGo’s main weakness is plate discipline…his is TERRIBLE in that regard. And Colorado’s biggest hitting advantage smooths over that exact problem, by neutering breaking balls.
After many years of paying attention to this issue, I’ve concluded that that only reasonable way to judge a Rockies hitter is to look at his road production. That’s absolutely NOT totally fair to the hitter, as many hitters would do better at home regardless of ballpark, but to apply some kind of overall ballpark adjustment to Gonzalez as if it helps him only as much as anyone else strikes me as a fallacy that does not fit qualitative or quantitative analysis.
Gonzalez will never approach anything close to “one of the best offensive players in baseball” until he fixes his, again, terrible approach at the plate. To view otherwise is to totally overrate him.
Agreed. Adjusting for parks is a start but it’s very quick and dirty.
We aren’t even adjusting for handedness yet because of sample size issues I think. Parks fluctuate from year to year due to weather and randomness. The final adjustments are a good representation of how the park would affect the average hitter, but no two hitters are the same.
When looking at a guy like CarGo it is important to consider that the biggest offensive outliers could also be the biggest outliers in terms of how that specific park affects players.