Archive for January, 2012

Yankees Land Michael Pineda, Don’t Pay Retail

A few hours ago, news broke that the Yankees finally shipped Jesus Montero to Seattle for their premium right-handed starting pitcher. However, despite a couple of years of rumors and suggestions, Felix Hernandez is not the one donning pinstripes – the Yankees landed 23-year-old (in five days, anyway) Michael Pineda instead.

While Pineda isn’t King Felix, he’s a pretty terrific young pitcher in his own right. He jumped directly into the Mariners rotation out of spring training last year and was good enough to make the All-Star team in his rookie season. And, while Safeco Field is a nice place for a rookie pitcher to learn his craft, Pineda did most of the good work on his own.

Among qualified AL starting pitchers last year, only Brandon Morrow and Justin Verlander posted a higher strikeout rate than Pineda, who whiffed 24.9% of the batters he faced. His K% was better than David Price, CC Sabathia, and yes, even Felix. Pineda’s live fastball and willingness to live up in the strike zone led to a lot of swinging strikes, and that had nothing to do with the park he played in.

Read the rest of this entry »


Can Yoenis Cespedes Showcase Talents In MLB?

Yoenis Cespedes made his professional debut Thursday night in the Dominican Winter League. The much-hyped Cuban defector promptly went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and a hit by pitch. At least there’s nowhere to go but up.

Although Cespedes has yet to establish residency outside of Cuba and is still ineligible to sign as a free agent, the market has largely cleared (outside of Prince Fielder), and thus the Hot Stove’s attention turns his way. Expect the hype to approach and potentially surpass that which surrounded Aroldis Chapman two years ago — Cespedes may not having something as tangible as a 100 MPH fastball, but he does have The Showcase. He also has a tremendous record as one of the Cuban League’s best hitters at just age 26. But it’s difficult enough to project the performance of solid minor leaguers, where data is largely complete and comparables abound. How can we even begin to filter through the noise in Cespedes’s excellent statistical record?

Read the rest of this entry »


“Aggressive Right to the Point of Stupidity”

We all knew that Ozzie Guillen was nuts. That Logan Morrison has been known to say some crazy things. That Carlos Zambrano has thrown out his share of zingers in the day. But none of them can hold a torch to Marlins team president David Samson:

 “Aggressive right to the point of stupidity, but not quite there,” said Samson, characterizing the club’s planned pursuit [of Cuban ballplayer Yoenis Cespedes]. “We think he’s a perfect fit for us, but it has to be sane. [We’ve] expressing interest, going to visit, making it very clear to his representatives and to him and his family that we think he should not be anywhere other than Miami. As a Cuban and someone in the DR, it makes perfect sense. We have a perfect position for him to play. It would be great.” (Juan Rodriguez, Sun Sentinel)

When I first read that quote, my immediate thought was that it’s a perfect way to summarize the Marlins’ entire off-season: aggressive to the point of stupidity, but not quiiite there.

I don’t trust my memory, though, so is that true? Have the Marlins generally stopped themselves this year before crossing the line into poor decision making, or are have they been “aggressively stupid”? Let’s check it out, deal by deal.

Read the rest of this entry »


Getting Cal Ripkened by Mike Schmidt

Barry Larkin’s election to the Baseball Hall of Fame has generated the usual amount of celebration and argument this week. Most of the debates — about Jeff Bagwell, Alan Trammell, Tim Raines, and, of course, PEDs have been covered at length, so I will not pursue those topics immediately (I discussed this year’s ballot elsewhere). I do have other thoughts about the Hall of Fame, inspired by a combination of my thoughts about third basemen in the 1970s and Grant Brisbee’s tremendous piece about Trammell’s difficult candidacy. And that led me to reflect on the short-lived candidacy of a player whose career numbers may surprise you: Buddy Bell.

Read the rest of this entry »


Roy Oswalt, Potential Steal

A few minutes ago, Buster Olney tweeted out a note that the asking prices on free agent pitchers is on the way down, specifically naming Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, and Roy Oswalt. In the message, he noted that Oswalt is said to be asking for $8 million on a one year contract, where he hopes to prove he’s healthy, re-establish his value, and land a raise next winter.

At $8 million for one year, the line for Roy Oswalt should be out the door. I’d venture to go so far as to argue that any contender with enough money to spend is wasting a potential golden opportunity by letting him sit out on the market any longer. At that price, Oswalt might just be the biggest bargain of the winter.

There seem to be a few factors conspiring to drive down Oswalt’s pricetag, but all of them are related to questions about his health. Last year, he was limited to just 139 innings due to lingering back problems that landed him on the disabled list a couple of times. He also saw his average fastball velocity decline from 92.6 MPH to 91.4 MPH, and saw his strikeout rate drop from 23.1% to 15.7%. These kinds of declines are often evidence of health problems and cause for concern going forward.

But, in this case, I think those concerns are generally overblown. We know Oswalt was hurt, so we shouldn’t be overly surprised to find evidence of diminished performance while he was fighting back problems. Back problems can certainly linger, and this could come back to affect his performance in 2012 as well, but we can’t ignore the fact that Oswalt ended the season as a healthy pitcher who looked every bit as good as he had earlier in his career.

Read the rest of this entry »


What Should the Reds Do With Left Field?

The Reds entered the off-season with two possible paths forward:

1. Trade Joey Votto for a bushel of young players and accept a consolidation while breaking in the foundation of their next core group of everyday players.

2. Trade some of those young players for roster upgrades in an effort to win while they have Votto under contract.

They choose the second path, shipping Yonder Alonso and friends to San Diego for Mat Latos, sending Travis Wood to Chicago for Sean Marshall, and then using most of their remaining budget allowance to sign Ryan Madson to a one-year deal to take over as the team’s closer. While Latos offers both present and future value, the other moves only upgrade Cincinnati’s roster for 2012, and next winter, they’ll have a tough time retaining Madson, Marshall, and Brandon Phillips while also paying Votto the significant raise that his contract calls for.

So, the Reds are something close to being all-in on this season. If they win, they might create enough extra revenue to give Votto a long-term mega-contract and keep their franchise player. If they don’t win, however, then they’re going to have a hard time selling Votto on re-signing, and they’ll have to explore moving him before he can leave via free agency. That’s not a good scenario, and so the Reds should be highly motivated to maximize their positive outcomes in 2012.

Read the rest of this entry »


SABR Analytics Conference: March 15th-17th

We’re proud to be partnering with the Society for American Baseball Research and presenting the first annual SABR Analytics Conference, which will take place in Mesa, Arizona from March 15th through the 17th. The conference is going to be a baseball nerd’s paradise, combining interesting discussions with new research presentations, and essentially serving as a three day window into how the game operates and what new things are on the horizon. The attendees are going to be a veritable who’s who of influential people in baseball, including:

Chicago Cubs chairmen Tom Ricketts
Cleveland Indians president Mark Shapiro
Arizona Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall
Anaheim Angels GM Jerry DiPoto
Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin
Cleveland Indians GM Chris Antonetti

Some of the topics on the agenda:

How technology is changing baseball
Managers Panel on how analytics has changed the game
GM Panel on how analytics shape decisions
Measuring player performance
Technology and in-game strategy
Hit f/x and Field f/x: where analytics are headed
Scouting and analytics
What we can all learn from fantasy baseball?
How much is “too much” when it comes to using analytics?

Additionally, many of the bigger names in the online baseball community will be sitting in on panel discussions, presenting original research, or providing their insight in a unique way. David Appelman and myself will both be there, and FanGraphs is looking forward to helping create an event that is one of the highlights of the year for the analytically-inclined baseball fan.

The full registration fee for the event is $495, but early bird registration is now available for the discounted price of $350, which includes a one year membership to SABR as well. If you’re already a SABR member, the price is only $250, and that price also applies if you’re a currently enrolled high school or college student. You can register for the event directly through SABR’s store, and since early bird registration won’t last too much longer, so I’d suggest doing so sooner than later.

If you’re thinking about making a trip to Arizona this year, I’d definitely try to schedule your trip so you’re around for this. It promises to be a fantastic event for hardcore baseball fans.


Offseason Notes, Featuring a Heartfelt Correction


Brad Emaus is people, too.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Correction: Brad Emaus Not Inconsequential, Too
2. Assorted Headlines
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Milwaukee Television

Correction
Yesterday, while reviewing five recent moves of not no consequence, I omitted the recent acquisition by Boston of Colorado infielder Brad Emaus. The Emaus move is decidedly less inconsequential than the one by the Brewers including Jeff Bianchi. (H/T hawk-eyed reader BoSoxFan).

Read the rest of this entry »


Vicente Padilla: High Risk, Medium Reward

The Red Sox entered the 2011 season with high hopes of winning their third championship of the millennium. Best laid plans didn’t come to fruition as the events of that wild and wacky final day of the regular season kept them out of the playoffs entirely.

Their offense wasn’t to blame, as the Red Sox posted a league-leading .351 wOBA and 116 wRC+. Their bullpen led the junior circuit in WAR and FIP as well, while throwing 517.1 innings. That innings total was the second-highest in the league, indicative of their major problem area: the rotation.

While the Red Sox starting rotation wasn’t atrocious, it certainly didn’t live up to expectations. It posted the highest walk rate in the American League, and finished in the bottom third in all of ERA, FIP and SIERA. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester pitched well, as did Clay Buchholz over his 14 starts. Everyone else left much to be desired.

After seeing the Yankees eek solid seasons out of Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia, the Red Sox seem to be adopting a similar approach for the 2012 season. Instead of looking for major splashes, or even above average reinforcements like Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt, the Red Sox have signed Aaron Cook, and are currently engaged in talks with Vicente Padilla. Cook makes some sense, in spite of his recent struggles to stay on the mound, because he offers one of the best groundball rates in baseball when healthy, and averaged close to 4 WAR from 2006-08.

Padilla is another story, as he carries various forms of risk and has never really offered much reward. Minor league deals are almost never detrimental to the signing team, but expectations should be significantly tempered for Padilla, even if he somehow manages to stay healthy.

Read the rest of this entry »


Q&A: Ben Cherington, Red Sox GM

The name and the face are different, but when it comes to the bigger picture, Ben Cherington looks, and sounds, a lot like Theo Epstein. The new Boston GM is his own man — make no mistake about that — but like his predecessor he is cool, calculated, and sabermetrically savvy. Befitting the Red Sox model, Cherington is all about information and assigning value.

——

David Laurila: In a May 2009 interview, Andrew Friedman said of the Rays’ organization “We have guided ourselves by the principle that information is king.” Do the Red Sox have the same approach?

Ben Cherington: I think that every team is looking for the most precise information that applies to their particular situation. Every team’s situation is different, so the way that each team applies that information is different. The business of baseball in Boston is different than the business of baseball in other cities.

We may be looking for some of the same information that other teams are, but we may apply it differently. Ultimately, we’re trying to do the same thing that every other team is trying to do, which is to use our resources in the most efficient way possible within the context of our baseball and business models.

We’re looking for any information that can help us assign an appropriate value to a player, regardless of the segment of the market that player is coming from. It could be a teenager in the Dominican, it could be an amateur player in the States that we’re evaluating for the draft, it could be a minor league player with another organization, or it could be major league player. It’s also our own players, both in the minor leagues and at the major league level.

With every player that is a potential target for us, or is someone that we need to assign a value to, we’re looking to acquire as much information as we can about that player. We try to be as precise as we possibly can.

Read the rest of this entry »