It really seems as if Manny Ramirez wants to play in the major leagues in 2012. He’s had a rough go of it since last April, having a brief and ineffective stint with the Tampa Bay Rays that ended when he retired to avoid the ignominy of a 100-game suspension for a positive PED test. Yes, Manny brings baggage, and he will be 40 in May. However, despite the way things ended in 2011, Ramirez has a long record of impressive offensive production. It is hard to say which teams might actually be interested, but what teams even have a place for him? Not many, and league-wide interest (understandably) seems tepid so far. But if we scour the league, some possibilities do appear.

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This afternoon, the results of the 2011 Hall of Fame voting will be announced. Spoiler alert – Barry Larkin is going in and no one else stands much of a chance. This is basically in line with recent precedent, where the Baseball Writer’s Association of America is relatively stingy with their election even when presented with multiple quality candidates. By and large, the 75 percent voting threshold for induction leads the BBWAA to be a de facto “small hall” organization, electing only the very best players of all time – and then a few players that the writers just have irrational affections towards.

In fact, of the 206 former players enshrined in Cooperstown, only 111 have been placed there by the baseball writers. Perusing nearly any year’s voting results at random will provide an example of just how stingy the BBWAA can be when it comes to voting. In the 1966 vote that I just linked to, 6.6% of the electorate didn’t cast a ballot for Ted Williams. Ted Williams!

Now, I’m not here to tell anyone what their personal Hall of Fame standard should be. If you feel like that the Hall should be reserved for just the absolute cream of the crop, that’s something of a personal preference. Likewise, if you’re more liberal in your interpretation of what a Hall of Famer should be, then that’s an easily defendable position as well. And, many of the arguments over whether the many players on the bubble should be elected or not basically come down to disagreements over personal preference for a “big hall” or a “small hall”. Big hall guys want Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez, and Larry Walker elected, while small hall guys point out the valid flaws in their resumes. For players like that, the differences aren’t generally about the quality of the player, but about the standard that should be applied for election.

But, as was pointed out in a terrific piece by David Schoenfield last week, there is one organization whose opinion on the size of the Hall of Fame should probably matter the most – the actual board of trustees of the Hall itself. And they’ve made it fairly clear that they want a big hall of Fame.

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Barry Larkin is largely expected to answer a phone call Monday afternoon and hear from Jack O’Connell, Secretary of the Baseball Writers Association of America, that he has been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. The BBWAA has voted at least one player into Cooperstown in every season since 1996, and Larkin has the best chance of anyone on the ballot this year.

However, that congratulatory phone call is not guaranteed. The long-time Cincinnati Reds shortstop must accumulate another 12.9% of the votes to jump from the 62.1% he garnered last year to the necessary 75% for induction, and the average percentage gained by the last twelve players inducted into the Hall of Fame (not in their first year of eligibility) once reaching the 60% threshold was only 10.8 — which would leave Larkin on the outside looking in for yet another season.

Even if Larkin does follow that trend, though, and only receives 72.9 percent of the vote this year, it seems inevitable that we will eventually be talking about Barry Larkin the Hall of Fame shortstop. And we should be.

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Note: there was an error in calculating the very essential RECK leaderboard you’ll find below. It has been fixed, and the changes are minimal. Also, it still looks totally like the Richter Scale.

Yuni Betancourt, in front of a post-apocalyptic hellscape, finished second per a non-extant stat.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Projecting: ZiPS for Cincinnati
2. Stat That Doesn’t Exist: RECK
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: L.A. Dodgers Television (Home Games)

Projections: ZiPS for Cincinnati
Dan Szymborski has published his ZiPS projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Below are some of the notable ones, accompanied by very rough WAR projections (for the hitters, per 600 plate appearances, at least) calculated by the method outlined here. All numbers assume major league competition. OPS+ and ERA+ are park-adjusted.

Devin Mesoraco, C, 24: .248/.322/.432, 100 OPS+, 3.5 WAR
Mesoraco is likely to become the Reds’ starting catcher this year. So long as he’s something like average defensively, he projects to be above average overall — per plate appearance, that is.

Juan Francisco, 3B, 25: .267/.297/.480, 104 OPS+, 2.6 WAR
Here’s a stat that doesn’t exist: ISO / (OBP – AVG). Let’s call it Reckless Power — or RECK, for short. Francisco’s projection calls for a RECK of 7.1. That figure would have placed him second (to only Adrian Beltre among the league’s 145 qualified batters in 2011. (For 2011’s top-10 RECKers, look below.)

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The Texas Rangers took an interesting approach at the 2011 trade deadline. Instead of seeking big-time impact talent in the lineup or rotation, they sought to shore up the bullpen. Jon Daniels worked out deals with the Orioles for Mike Gonzalez and Koji Uehara, and when it seemed like Heath Bell was headed to Texas, it turned out the Rangers’ bid was awarded the prized Mike Adams. Gonzalez was set to hit the free agent market after the season, while both Uehara and Adams were under control for the 2012 season as well.

The impact of the newly acquired bullpen trio was tougher to measure statistically — which is the case for most relievers, especially over minute samples — but the bullpen was certainly improved. In the end, however, best laid plans didn’t come to fruition and Uehara was left off of the World Series roster. The Rangers even fielded calls pertaining to his availability this offseason. This, despite a fluky high home run rate that spat in the face of his 23 strikeouts and one walk over 22 innings after the trade. Regardless, all available evidence suggests that Uehara remains a relief stud, and over a full season has a better chance to make his impact felt.

And in spite of his “struggles” the Rangers still intended to further shore up the bullpen this offseason, signing Joe Nathan, seriously pursuing Andrew Bailey and considering both Gonzalez and Ryan Madson. Their activity suggests that they want to reduce the risk of bullpen attrition by employing numerous top-notch relievers, especially at the back end. This invites the multi-million dollar question: should they sign Ryan Madson given their circumstances?

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The Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum will release its list of  soon-to-be inductees on Monday. Some discussion has focused on Bernie Williams and how much his postseason performance should count towards his hall candidacy. I’ll look at a simple way to add postseason plate-appearances into a player’s career WAR.

Of all the candidates eligible for the hall of fame in 2012, Williams had the most postseason plate appearances — and by a large margin. He had 545 of them, which is more than twice as many as any other hall-eligible player. Javy Lopez is second with 225, and Fred McGriff comes in at 218. Impressively, 141 of Williams’ 545 plate appearances came during the World Series. For reference, Williams’ World Series total is nearly three times as many as  Mark McGwire, who had 53.

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So a day after I write up a treatise on the Nationals and Prince Fielder, it turns out there’s even more to say about the oversized first baseman.

Navigating the offseason can be a tricky process for agents and for teams. As an agent, if you rush to get your players signed too quickly, you risk leaving money on the table. Long negotiations give more teams a chance to get in on the bidding, and players certainly don’t want to sign the first offer they receive. But if an agent waits too long to get his player signed, the agent face the danger of watching his player’s market evaporate. It’s a delicate balance, and being a successful agent requires being able to judge a player’s market and know when it’s the optimal time to sign.

There’s nobody better at judging markets and knowing when to make a deal than Scott Boras. With that said, I’m beginning to wonder if he’s going to have a tough time drumming up a large price tag for Prince Fielder.

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It’s generally assumed that the Padres will have no trouble putting together a good pitching staff because of the park they play in, and while they have generally given us little reason to think otherwise, last year the Friars didn’t get such great relief work. Enter Andrew Cashner, who was traded to San Diego this afternoon along with prospect Kyung-Min Na for prospects Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates.

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Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer continued their makeover of the Chicago Cubs roster by acquiring first baseman Anthony Rizzo and minor-league pitcher Zach Cates from the San Diego Padres for pitcher Andrew Cashner and minor league outfielder Kyung-Min Na. Cashner is 25 year old former first round draft pick who has great stuff, but one who has struggled with injuries and control in his time with Cubs. Rizzo is a familiar player for Epstein and Hoyer as the Red Sox drafted him when Epstein was GM and was acquired by the Padres during Hoyer’s tenure as Padres’ GM as a major player in the Adrian Gonzales trade. Rizzo’s 2011 was mixed, as he combined a breakout year in Triple-A with a horrendous cup of coffee in San Diego as he “hit” .141/.281/.242 in 153 plate appearances. Given the horror that Petco Park is for left-handed sluggers, the move to Wrigley Field should sit well with Rizzo.

Despite his struggles at the big league level last year, Rizzo has rocketed through the minor leagues reaching Double-A as a 20 year old and seeing the majors at age 21. Rizzo’s 2011 was one of the best offensive seasons in the Pacific Coast League despite him being the youngest everyday player in the league at age 21. As Noah Isaacs demonstrated nicely, very few players make it to AAA at such a tender age. A quick look at the new minor league leaderboards demonstrate that most of the best offensive performers in the PCL last year were several years older than Rizzo. In fact, the offensive performance that most closely mirrors Rizzo’s was that of Cubs farmhand and fellow first baseman Bryan LaHair. As the table below demonstrates, the only significant difference between Rizzo and LaHair last year was age, with Rizzo looking like a prospect and LaHair profiling as a classic AAAA hitter.

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As you may have heard, the current rules of baseball were not set in stone and brought down the mountain by Abner Doubleday, never to be changed. There have been many changes over the years. Whether those changes made the game better or worse is debatable, but to believe the game exactly as currently played is somehow “sacred” such that any changes would make it something other than baseball is silly.

The idea of Rule Change Friday, as I first tried to implement in a discussion of pickoff throws, is to (hopefull) generate fun discussions about potential rule changes the game better more enjoyable (from a variety of perspectives). In that first post, I discussed a suggestion by Bill James that (as far as I know) has never actually been practiced in professional baseball. For this installment, I would like to explore the idea of moving forward by moving backward by looking at the possibility of in-game establishment of the batting order.

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