Archive for January, 2012

The Most Talked About 23rd Man: Jeff Keppinger

For those of us who do not watch the transaction wire, anxiously awaiting the Tampa Bay Rays’ next acquisition (I say “us” as a matter of formality, for by the mere presence of this article we can ascertain I am not among those abstainers), last night the Tampa Bay Rays came to terms (terms yet-revealed) with infielder Jeff Keppinger.

The former Houston Astros / San Francisco Giants middle man has already a full litany of research on him. My double-colleague Erik Hahmann (Fangraphs and DRaysBay) examined Kepp and his similarity to also-targeted Ryan Theriot; Marc Topkin — after the signing broke — said “lefty mashaz!” (so to speak); Rob Neyer said “don’t forget he can’t hit righties”; and then Jason Collette said: “Let’s regress those platoon splits.”

Ultimately, the final question must be this: How is Jeff Keppinger — who seemingly shares the same strengths as Sean Rodriguez — in anyway useful to the club?

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Offseason Notes for January 26th


“I know it when I see it.” — Justice Potter Stewart

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Prospecting: MLB.com’s Top-100 Prospects
3. Third Thing: A Video Celebration of Winston Abreu

Assorted Headlines
Cespedes Declared Free Agent by MLB
Major League Baseball has told teams that Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is eligible to negotiate with teams, reports the Associated Press — a day after he (i.e. Cespedes) gained residency in the Dominican Republic. Jackie Moore looked at his resume in the Cuban baseball league a couple weeks ago, noting that, while some park and league adjustments are in order, Cespedes’ power has still profiled as above average. Fielding is the issue: is Cespedes an average center fielder, or corner outfielder? The difference is about 10 runs, or one whole win, every 162 games.

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Is Tim Lincecum Taking a Big Risk?

Tim Lincecum has done more than enough during his career to merit a big contract. But after reportedly turning down a five-year offer worth “at least $100 million” — and instead opting for a two-year, $40.5 million extension with the San Francisco Giants — it appears Lincecum will wait to sign that huge free-agent deal. Lincecum has been one of the best starters in baseball since his debut — winning back-to-back National League Cy Young awards in his first two full seasons — and he’s definitely in line for a big payday. But given pitchers’ unpredictability, Lincecum’s decision to play the free-agent market could come back to haunt him.

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FanGraphs Audio: Craig Robinson of Flip Flop Fly Ball

Episode 131
Today’s guest is Craig Robinson. Of Flip Flip Fly Ball. Of the internet. Craig is a Britisher who (a) cares deeply about baseball and (b) lives in Mexico City. In this episode, we learn wherefore and why. Also discussed: R. Kelly’s “Feelin’ on Your Booty (Remix)”.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 38 min. play time.)

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Server Maintenance

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You Can’t Measure Heart, or David Eckstein Bows Out

The Orange County Register

In case you missed this news earlier in the week, David Eckstein is leaning toward retirement. He hasn’t officially declared yet, but considering Eckstein didn’t play at all last season — and he doesn’t seem too excited about the offers he has received — it appears that it’s only a matter of time.

Sooooo… does David Eckstein belong in the Hall of Fame? Don’t make me laugh. But if I were constructing a Hall of People-Who-Were-Important-To-Sabermetrics, Eckstein would be one of the first players I’d add.

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Win Curves and Player Pricing

As expected, there were two basic responses to yesterday’s news that the Tigers had agreed to pay Prince Fielder $214 million over the next nine seasons:

1. “That’s just way too much money.”

2. “As long as he helps them win, the cost is irrelevant.”

I’m part of the group that says the former, as I simply don’t think that the Tigers are going to get a very good return on their investment in Fielder, and if they had this kind of money to spend to upgrade their roster, I think there are far better ways they could have used that money to produce a better team overall. However, while I think the second point ignores the fact that signing Fielder wasn’t the only option available to to the Tigers, I understand the desire to focus on total wins rather than cost efficiency. After all, the point of baseball is to win a championship, not to finish first in the $/WAR standings. Efficiency is a method to help create a championship caliber roster, but it isn’t the goal in and of itself.

And, those that argue in favor of the deal are arguing from a premise that holds some truth – the Tigers were absolutely in a position where each marginal win is significantly more valuable than the average. I referenced the win curve theory in the post yesterday, but it’s worth expanding on briefly. If you’re not familiar with the concept of the win curve, this article by Vince Gennaro from 2007 is a good place to start. I’ll highlight one of the important passages:

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FanGraphs Chat – 1/25/12


Francisco Cordero, The Blue Jay

Right-hander Francisco Cordero sat on the sideline as every other available closer on the free agent market found employment this winter. On Tuesday afternoon, however, it was reported that the 36-year-old native of the Dominican Republic agreed to a one-year, $4.5M deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.

He is expected to serve as the set-up man for the newly-acquired Sergio Santos, which will be the first year in a non-closer role for Cordero since he set-up for Ugueth Urbina for half of the 2003 season. Dave Cameron adroitly illustrated why Cordero was left on the outside of the closer’s market looking in — mostly due to a troubling decline in the ability to miss bats over the past few years — in this article.

It’s beneficial for the Blue Jays that Cordero will not be relied upon to be the team’s closer, because that declining strikeout rate was not the only red flag raised in 2011. The vast chasm between his 2.45 ERA and 4.02 FIP last season has been well-documented, but the other major concern stems from what appears to be a huge improvement from last year: his walk rate.

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Offseason Notes for January 25th

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Other People’s Inboxes: Braves Shortstop
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Oakland Television

Assorted Headlines
Washington Regards Cespedes as Corner-Type
The Washington Nationals, a team thought to be in pursuit of Yoenis Cespedes, regard the Cuban emigre as more of a corner outfielder, or maybe even a first baseman, according to MLB.com’s William Ladson. That news isn’t entirely shocking, probably, to anyone who saw video of Cespedes’ first Dominican League home run, in which video the right-handed batter does appear to have cultivated some mass.

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