Is Tim Lincecum Taking a Big Risk?

Tim Lincecum has done more than enough during his career to merit a big contract. But after reportedly turning down a five-year offer worth “at least $100 million” — and instead opting for a two-year, $40.5 million extension with the San Francisco Giants — it appears Lincecum will wait to sign that huge free-agent deal. Lincecum has been one of the best starters in baseball since his debut — winning back-to-back National League Cy Young awards in his first two full seasons — and he’s definitely in line for a big payday. But given pitchers’ unpredictability, Lincecum’s decision to play the free-agent market could come back to haunt him.

During the past four seasons — when Lincecum became a full-time starter — his 24.7 WAR is good for fifth best among starting pitchers. During that same period, Lincecum is first in strikeouts, second in FIP and seventh in innings pitched. It isn’t just that Lincecum is good; he’s also been incredibly durable over his career. On top of that, he’s just 27-years-old. By the time he reaches free-agency in 2014, he’ll still be in the prime of his career. Given the rumors that Lincecum could be the game’s first $200 million pitcher, it’s hard to fault Lincecum for wanting to test the free-agent market. Still, Lincecum’s shown some signs of decline. And that  could make him a far-less attractive option two years from now.

With pitchers, there’s always a risk of a severe injury, but Lincecum’s heavy workload could make him even more of a risk. While his durability might be seen as a positive, it’s also caused Lincecum to throw a whole lot of innings in the early part of his career. While a heavy workload isn’t a guarantee that a pitcher will get injured, younger pitchers are more susceptible to workload-related injuries. Outside of his rookie season, Lincecum has not been handled with kid gloves.

Tim Lincecum Games Started 110+ Pitches Thrown 120+ Pitches Thrown PAP Rank
2008 33 18 5 1st
2009 32 17 5 4th
2010 33 12 4 11th
2011 33 20 4 4th

Lincecum has ranked in the top five in pitcher abuse points in all but one season since 2008. In his first full season as a starter, Lincecum ranked first in the category, throwing at least 110 pitches in more than half of his starts. While he’s managed to stay healthy despite his heavy workload, the effects of being abused so young have shown up in other areas.

In 2008, Lincecum’s average fastball was 94 mph, which tied for the sixth-hardest fastball among major league starters. After two seasons of heavy work, things bottomed out for Lincecum in 2010, when his average fastball velocity came in at just 91.2 mph. Though Lincecum regained some of that velocity in 2011, his fastball actually rated negatively, according to pitch values. That’s the first time that’s happened over Lincecum’s career. Lincecum has compensated for the velocity loss by developing one of the most devastating change-ups in the league. While that’s become his new go-to pitch, it’s unclear whether Lincecum will ever regain his 94 mph gas.

Lincecum has also seen some decline in his stats recently.

Tim Lincecum K% BB% FIP FIP- xFIP xFIP- WAR
2008 28.6% 9.1% 2.62 60 3.13 72 7.5
2009 28.8% 7.5% 2.34 56 2.83 66 8.0
2010 25.8% 8.5% 3.15 81 3.09 77 4.9
2011 24.4% 9.6% 3.17 84 3.36 87 4.4

After peaking between 2008 and 2009, Lincecum has experienced decline in some crucial areas. Last season, his strikeout rate fell to 24.4% — his worst showing since his rookie season. Lincecum also walked more batters than usual last season, leading to the second-highest walk rate of his career. After posting 15.5 WAR between 2008 and 2009, Lincecum has been worth 9.3 WAR during the past two seasons.

That’s not to imply at all that Lincecum is a bad pitcher. Most pitchers would kill to post Lincecum’s stat line from last year. If he has declined, it’s been from exceptional to very good. As his FIP- shows, he’s still much better than the average National League starter.

But there’s still that nagging trend. Even if Lincecum’s true talent is 4 to 5 WAR per season, as opposed to 7 to 8 WAR per season, that’ll still be enough to land him a huge contract once he hits free-agent market. But if his peripherals continue to decline — or he gets injured — he could regret not taking a long term deal right now.

Unless you believe Lincecum will get better, which would be tough to do with his current performance level, there’s little reason to believe his value will be any higher than it is right now. There’s always a chance he’ll get a better offer on the free-agent market, but considering there are already some warning signs, he’s definitely taking a risk by turning down the Giants’ long-term offer now.





Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.

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paul bedford
12 years ago

He seems highly unlikley to get better and could get quite a bit worse in which case the $100m over 5 years will start looking like it would have been a very smart move

JayBandit
12 years ago
Reply to  paul bedford

I imagine he and his father think that he will maintain his mechanics and therefore his physical ability. SI did a great article about him a couple of years ago and compared him to Mark Prior and how his trainer thought that Prior would have arm troubles before anything ever showed up.

They then went out to say how the freak’s mechanics allow him to not overstress his body, and stand up to the workload he maintains.

Not saying they are 100% correct, but at least we know where their reasoning is coming from.

Greg
12 years ago
Reply to  JayBandit

The drop in velocity at age 26 is disconcerting, particularly since Lincecum earns his living by throwing a lot of high fastballs to set up the off-speed stuff down and away. Also disconcerting is the absence of 160-pound starters having long, successful careers in the big leagues during an era where virtually every hitter is a threat to hit a home run.

Ron Guidry had a very similar body type and threw even harder than Lincecum. Guidry also had very good mechanics that reduced the stress on his joints in his pitching arm. Guidry was still a very good pitcher through the age of 34. But unlike Lincecum, Guidry spent several years in the minor leagues, most of it pitching in relief. He wasn’t rushed to the show the way Lincecum and his peers have been rushed. Nonetheless, Guidry stopped being effective at about 2,000 Major League innings. Lincecum is half-way there.

We also know that Lincecum isn’t exactly a fitness freak. His work ethic and lifestyle is akin to David Wells’s. So that’s another strike against him being able to defy the odds and having a long career.

I predict Lincecum will be washed up shortly after he hits 30. But I also predict that he will not suffer from a catastrophic injury in the next two seasons, nor see a huge decline in performance. So some billionaire will throw him Sabathia type money. In the end, Lincecum is making the right decision. It’s the team that gives him the keys to the kingdom when he becomes a free agent who will regret it.

Graham
12 years ago
Reply to  JayBandit

I know you’re going for a laugh, but the David Wells comparison is absurd without any element of humor.

Since being called out about his conditioning in mid-2010, Lincecum has made major changes in his fitness routine. His increase in velocity last year was generally attributed to stepping up his workouts in the offseason and getting serious about conditioning for the first time.

Moreover, the dude is a ridiculous athlete. He can walk on his hands, do a gymnast’s kyp (leap to his feet from a sitting position), do backflips, etc.

I do believe that Lincecum’s general decline in velocity has to do with the natural aging process of having his muscles thicken, reducing his flexibility somewhat and thus cutting down on the torque he can generate with his mechanics. But he’s an extremely unique performer. Other than their height, I’m not sure Guidry’s a very good comparison. I’m unaware of Guidry being anywhere near the kind of athletic marvel that Lincecum is.

Agent Purple
12 years ago
Reply to  JayBandit

do you have any evidence to back up the comparison to David Wells? other than the long hair and pot, i’d say that this is not correct in everything i’ve heard and seen about TL. there are anecdotal pieces of evidence about TL’s athleticism in the NYTimes piece: http://tmagazine.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/little-big-man/

I would say he’s taking a big risk, especially given the love SFG has for him, but i think it’s more of a ‘you never know’ type of thing rather than TL will fail because of a personal flaw in his work ethic. i guess we’ll see how the stats trend develops in 2012.

Cidron
12 years ago
Reply to  JayBandit

Greg.. sorry, regarding your comment about 160lb pitchers.. my mind immediately went to Pedro Martinez.. but you are correct, according to baseballreference he is listed at 170. He “might” have had a good and long career.

Kyle
11 years ago
Reply to  JayBandit

Lincecum actually threw harder than Guidry when he was 22-23… but his fastball hasn’t hit 98 mph in years. The most comparable pitcher to the Freak is Oswalt, but Oswalt was able to hit 94 and 95 on the gun last season while injured and looking done. When he was he was 28 to 30 he was still hitting 96 to 98 when necessary. Or Roy Halladay whose fastball is still often in the 92-94 range.

Lincecum is relying on his awesome change up when that pitch solely relies on having at least an above average fastball(typically an elite one.) He’s gone from a guy who threw his fastball in the mid 90’s usually while using hit almost almost using that pitch 70 percent and slowly gone away from it(now he throws it around 50 percent and he’s not even 28 yet.)

If he had an elite curveball that he’d go to at any count like Verlander, Halladay, or other ace pitchers this wouldn’t be a problem. But someone whose best pitch is his change up, can’t go from a guy who came up as a pitching phenom who hit 99 mph on occasion to someone who’s lucky to hit 94 mph it seems.

In the past two seasons known as the year of the pitcher, while he pitches in a park that isn’t exactly a sandbox, in a weak division, and in the National League… is he even that good or is he more of a Hideo Nomo type who has put up a few more awesome years due to the conditions? His sleight frame, unorthodox windup, velocity issues, and crazy rising WHIP each year when he’s not even 30 should make people ask these questions. And he should never be the highest paid pitcher in the league… I wouldn’t even rank him in the top 10 pitchers now. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Weaver, Sabathia, a healthy Wainwright, Lester, a motivated Beckett, Fister if he continues pitching like he did last season, Felix Hernandez, Price and a few others over him if you had him pitching for the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals would easily be smarter decisions.

I could be wrong but I don’t think he’s going to pitch at an elite level much longer, and won’t win another Cy Young(while maybe not being an all-star at the age of 30 ever again at this rate.)

B N
12 years ago
Reply to  paul bedford

Even if he gets significantly worse, he could still get a contract worth over $60m as a free agent. Let’s look at some comps who got a lot worse for 3 years of time:

Harden (7+8+3): ~$18m (maybe a little more, if 2009 or 2010 had incentives)

Bedard (1.5+4.7+4.5+incentives): ~$11m

I started it after these guys who were worse than Lincecum came off pretty major arm injuries. Bedard missed an entire year out of the three. He still made over $10m in 3 years and might make more than that, I’m not sure how his Pirates incentives work out. Harden made almost $20m in 3. So basically, even in a Tommy-John situation, Lincecum is only risking about $40m.

Meanwhile, he has the potential to land one of those 6-year, $25m annual contracts for the tune of $150m. He’d have a lot more trouble getting that kind of money at 32 than 29. Even with diminished performance, a $100m+ for his later years is pretty likely.