Brandon Morrow is set to sign a three-year, $20 million contract extension with the Toronto Blue Jays. The deal reportedly includes a $10 million option or a $1 million buyout in 2015. While we don’t have the particulars of the deal at this point — including how much Morrow could make in each of his three seasons — it’s sure to create some arguments among fans.

In Morrow’s two seasons with the Blue Jays, his 4.62 ERA has been below-average among American League starters. Yet Morrow’s FIP and xFIP during the same time indicate that he should be one of the league’s better ones. As a result, many stat analysts have predicted a major improvement from Morrow. But until his ERA matches up with his advanced stats, Morrow is going to remain a frustrating player.

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The topic of Charlie Furbush and his elevated (but small sample) home run rate came up for discussion between Jeff Sullivan and I over the weekend and it got me thinking. That’s not true. It would be impossible for it to have gotten me thinking; otherwise I need to talk to the Red Cross about some new and unusual first aid techniques. It did direct my thinking however and the first hypothesis that came to my mind was that to wonder if maybe Furbush’s pitch locations played a part in his home run proclivity. Specifically, I wondered if Furbush was elevating his pitches. That seemed a plausible engine for more home runs.

However, such an explanation relies on an assumption that elevated pitch location does in fact open up a pitcher to a higher home run rate. Usually that’s in part attributed to simply more fly balls coming from pitches above the knees and not actually an increase in home run rate as we typically (per fly ball or ball in air) measure it. I decided to look at both. Using pitch F/X, I grabbed all the batted balls and separated them into horizontal bands. It turned out that the two plots (one using home run per ball in air and the one below) aren’t radically different.

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Episode 129
Managing editor Dave Cameron is tasked with — and largely succeeds at — providing a rational explanation for the recent trade that sent Marco Scutaro to the Rockies. Otherwise discussed: how said trade concerns Roy Oswalt, the Victor Martinez injury, Cameron on Clubhouse Confidential — again!

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 27 min. play time.)

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The Rockies have had a confusing offseason, but there should be no confusion on their latest move, which was to acquire infielder Marco Scutaro from the Red Sox. The move, a salary dump for the Red Sox, is a clear win for Colorado.

Any devoted Rockies follower will tell you that the Rox have had their fair share of turnover at the keystone. The elder Eric Young was a mainstay for a few years, and Clint Barmes held things down for a few years after Troy Tulowitzki bumped him off of shortstop, but otherwise it has been a revolving door. A revolving door is no problem if the players coming through are good ones, but that has not been the case in Colorado. Collectively, Rockies’ second basemen have been worth three wins in a season once in 19 tries. And while a part-time player can quickly drag an overall position WAR down in a short amount of time, their individual leaderboard tells a very similar story:

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A few years ago, Michael Morse looked like another marginal major-league guy who once had a brief hot streak. After reportedly having the last two seasons of his arbitration eligibility bought out by the Washington Nationals this weekend, Morse is now a millionaire many times over. (The reported amount is $10.5 million.) It has been a long path to relevance for the 29-year-old. Of more relevance right now is his current true-talent level — and how he fits in with the Nationals’ plans, considering the on-and-off Prince Fielder talk.

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This year’s Hall of Fame ballot had a very weak pool of first-year candidates. Bernie Williams was the leading vote getter with just 9.6% of the vote, and the only member to break the 5% cut off to stay on the ballot. At the same time the 14 returning candidates saw their vote total increase by an average of 7.1%, and five had increases of over 10%. Many have suggested that there is a relationship between these two facts; that is, with few good first-year candidates to vote for there were extra votes for the returning candidates.

Last year David Roher at Deadspin/Harvard Sports Analysis Collective noted that over the 2000s the average number of votes per HoF ballot was fairly constant, between 6.6 and 5.35. This would suggest that in years with strong first-year candidates there would be fewer votes for returning candidates and vice versa. I wanted to more explicitly test this relationship and see whether it extended further back than just the 2000s.

I looked at every Hall of Fame vote from 1967, when the current voting rules were put in place. Along the x-axis is the average number of first-year candidates voted for. Along the y-axis is the average change in vote share for returning candidates compared to the previous year (here an increase from 60% to 65% would be denoted by 0.05).
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When it was announced last week that Victor Martinez suffered a torn ACL during off-season workouts, I advised on Twitter that we not “overreact” to the news. While Martinez was a good player in his first year for the Tigers, his value on the field was likely overstated through having a high average and getting to bat behind Miguel Cabrera. That combination led to 103 RBIs and a 16th place finish on the AL MVP balloting, but his 130 wRC+ as a guy who spent most of his time at DH led to just +2.9 WAR. He was essentially the Tigers version of Michael Young – a nice player, but not one who couldn’t be replaced with a little bit of effort.

The most obvious candidate to step into Martinez’s vacated role was Carlos Pena, who posted a similar-ish 126 wRC+ last year, even if he got there in a very different way. However, he settled up with Tampa Bay last week, and now the team is kicking the tires on the likes of Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, Hideki Matsui, and yes, even Juan Pierre. Those four players combined for +0.1 WAR last year, and Damon was the only one who even resembled a guy who a contender should be willing to give regular playing time to. If the team does decide to pick a replacement out of that crop, then Martinez’s loss will represent a pretty significant downgrade.

And, honestly, I’m not sure the Tigers are in a position to be accepting that kind of loss right now. While the AL Central is neck-and-neck with the NL West for the title of weakest division in baseball, both the Indians and Royals have enough interesting young talent on hand to win 90+ games if things break right. And, given all the regression that Detroit needs to be expecting from the talent they are retaining from last year’s division winning roster, winning 90+ looks like it could be a challenge.

This isn’t to say that Detroit has a bad team, but they do need to prepare for a number of their most important players from 2011 to perform significantly worse in 2012.

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Age falsification continues to be a thorn in Major League Baseball’s collective side. Cleveland Indians’ right-hander Fausto Carmona was taken into custody in the Dominican Republic last week for using a false identity. Reports state that he is 31 years old (three years older than advertised) and that his real name is Roberto Hernandez Heredia.

This latest arrest not only dredges up questions regarding the effectiveness of the current system of international free agency, but also whether or not organizations are prudently investing money in young, high-risk Dominican teenagers. Melissa Segura of Sports Illustrated explains that, since 2003, 16-year-olds out of the D.R. have been given 50% more in bonuses than 17-year-old players.

Segura goes on to argue that organizations are mistakenly placing a premium on youth in the Dominican because only six players that were signed at age 16 made big league debuts between 2008-2011, while 17-year-old signees had 23 debuts and 18-year-old signees had 24 debuts.

Organizations do not sign Dominican teenagers to six-figure deals merely to have them scratch the big leagues, though. They wish to exploit the perceived inefficiencies of the Latin American market and buy premium talent at a fraction of the market value.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Projecting: ZiPS for Toronto
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: New York (NL)

Assorted Headlines
The State of Morneau’s Health
Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune has a profile on Twins first baseman Justin Morneau, including a first-person account of the experience of having, and recovering from, a concussion.

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Decent shortstops are hard to come by, but the Red Sox have now traded away two potential starters this offseason. After trading Jed Lowrie to the Astros for Mark Melancon, Ben Cherington and Company completed a deal this weekend to send Marco Scutaro to the Rockies for Clayton Mortensen and $6 million in salary relief. In each case the Red Sox dealt from depth to solidify perceived weaknesses. Melancon improves the Papelbon-less bullpen, and the $6 million previously due to Scutaro can now be reallocated to the starting rotation.

Given the issues the Red Sox faced with their rotation last year, the newly available money can go a long way towards signing Roy Oswalt or acquiring Wandy Rodriguez. Last season, the Red Sox offense and bullpen were statistical bests in the American League, but the overall rotation struggled in both the performance and health departments. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett pitched well, but Clay Buchholz couldn’t stay on the mound, and the rest of the rotation was a mess. All told, the Red Sox rotation posted the highest walk rate in the league and finished in the bottom third in ERA, FIP and SIERA.

Without much money available to improve the starting staff, the Sox turned to both Aaron Cook and Vicente Padilla on minor league deals, hoping to recreate the Bartolo Colon/Freddy Garcia magic the Yankees experienced. Now, the Red Sox have the capability of acquiring someone who can offer a greater level of assurance in improving the rotation. But it doesn’t come without a cost, as the Sox are now forced to use a platoon of Nick Punto and Mike Aviles at the most important position in the infield.

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