With a total commitment of around $111 million, Yu Darvish certainly didn’t come cheap for the Texas Rangers. While the team may expect to recoup some of that investment through generating revenues associated with having him on the team, it’s not very easy to plan a trip over from Japan to watch a starting pitcher, so we should be careful projecting large attendance gains based on having Darvish on the roster. And, while some may argue that the $51 million posting fee was a separate expense than player payroll, it’s still money the organization no longer will have access to that was a direct cost of having Darvish on the roster. Regardless of how the Rangers account for it in their ledger, it’s part of his expense, and needs to be considered when evaluating just how well Darvish needs to pitch in order to justify the Rangers decision.

So, how good does he need to be in order to accumulate approximately $110 million of value over the next six years? At $5 million per win with five percent annual inflation, the Rangers would be paying for +19.7 WAR during the life of the contract. If you think inflation’s going to be a little less than that, then you’ll come in around +21 WAR, a little more and you’ll be closer to +18 WAR. Most reasonable assumptions in terms of the current and expected future market for wins will lead you to somewhere in the general range of +20 WAR as Darvish’s target.

So, how reasonable is it for the Rangers to expect +20 wins of value from Darvish over the next six years. To answer that question, I decided to look at rolling six year windows over the last 10 years to see just how many pitchers have generally been able to perform at that kind of level. Here are the totals for each six year window since 2002:

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The San Diego system is deep. What’s most impressive is that the organization has been able to bulk up its minor league depth through a variety of methods: drafting, international free agency and trades. In particular, scouting director Jaron Madison had an outstanding draft in 2011. Even with the loss of some of its front office talent much more remains. The loss of young hurler Mat Latos through a trade with Cincinnati was a ballsy move and it stings a little but the organization is ultimately stronger for it. This is an organization on the upswing.

1. Yonder Alonso, 1B
BORN: April 8, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 1st round (7th overall), University of Miami (by Cincinnati)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 5th (Reds)

With the recent trade of fellow first base prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Chicago Cubs, Alonso is set to be San Diego’s starting first baseman in 2012. His ability to use the entire field and provide opposite-field pop will suit him well in his new ball park. Although he doesn’t have prototypical power (His power grades a 50), Alonso has the ability to hit for average and he has a strong eye at the plate that leads to a healthy number of walks. No longer blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati, the ugly experiment of placing Alonso is left field is over. He’ll return to his natural position of first base for the Padres, where he could eventually provide average to slightly-above-average defense at the position.

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Remember when the robot in Terminator refuses to die? The lady, like, punches him, shoots him, squishes him in a pressing machine, but he’s still reaching out one mechanical claw, ever thrilled at the prospect of pre-killing John Conner? Well, in this analogy, Jamie Moyer is Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The Colorado Rockies have agreed to terms with LHP Jamie Moyer and are a physical away from one of the more intriguing displays in Triple-A. Moyer is not only coming back from Tommy John surgery, something that derails even young pitchers, but he is also recovering from The Beatles breakup. Which happened when he was 8 years old.

Get it?

He’s old.

This is the joke they were making about Moyer six years ago.

What does this mean? Well: (1) Jamie Moyer is pretty much my idol. And (2) he has a long — nay, looooooong — shot at making the big leagues in 2012. Let’s take a look at what Moyer could possibly have left in the tank.

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Yoenis Cespedes, Senores y Senoritas.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Projecting: ZiPS for Tampa Bay
3. For or Against: Phillies First Basemen

Assorted Headlines
Wigginton to Start at First in Howard’s Absence
Ruben Amaro told ESPN’s Jim Bowden on Wednesday that Ty Wigginton will play first base as the team waits for Ryan Howard to return from injury. Wigginton wRC+s from the last three years (starting with 2009): 82, 92, 91. Ryan Howard’s wRC+ over that same stretch: 141, 126, 123. Average wRC+ for MLB first baseman in 2011: 112. Provided he’s an average fielder, Wigginton is likely no better than a 0.5 WAR first baseman over 600 plate appearances.

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One month ago, the Rangers were awarded the rights to negotiate with Yu Darvish for a posting fee of $51.7 million. Surely, the announcements of the details of the contract will not come until right at the 5:00 PM Eastern Time deadline, but all indications as of now point to the Rangers reaching a six-year deal with the Japanese phenom (as reported by CBS’s Jon Heyman).

Although there are occasions where negotiations break down between Japanese imports and their American clubs — Hisashi Iwakuma with Oakland last year, for example — the big names have always agreed to a contract by the one-month deadline. For both the Rangers and for Darvish, there was simply too much at stake not to reach a middle ground.

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Episode 127
As part of his weekly “contribution” to FanGraphs Audio, Dayn Perry discusses buying a glove for his son — and holds forth on the art and science of glove-breaking-in-ing. Also discussed: heist movies, the worst contracts of the 1984-85 offseason, and the perpetual melancholy of life.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 32 min. play time.)

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A year ago, the San Francisco Giants were coming off a shocking World Series victory. A curious side story was that the 2010 season was disappointing on an individual level for their young third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who ended up getting benched in the playoffs to make room for the likes of Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria. A post-World Series picture of Sandoval settling down in front of a massive ice cream sundae did little to ease concerns about his weight issues. With the leverage of having won the Series “without him,” the team basically ordered him to get his conditioning under control.

Fast forward to this week: while the Giants failed to make the 2011 playoffs, Sandoval himself is coming off of a great “bounce back” season. The same team that seemed to have so many concerns about Sandoval just a year ago, bought out his arbitration years with a three-year, $17.15 million contract. Are the Giants getting a steal or taking on risk unnecessarily?

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After an offseason of three-year contract demands and reported interest from every team in need of a pitcher, Joe Saunders wound up re-signing with the Diamondbacks yesterday, taking a one-year contract worth $6 million. He’ll presumably step into the rotation alongside Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill, and Josh Collmenter while Tyler Skaggs, Trevor Bauer, and others bide their time in the minors. The contract itself is appropriate for Saunders — 116 FIP- in 97 starts and 601.1 IP over the last three years — from the team’s perspective, but the player ended up making a pretty egregious error.

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Cub prospect Dan Vogelbach uses physics to his advantage.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Prospecting: Catching Up with John Sickels, Part II
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: New York (AL) Television

Assorted Headlines
Darvish Deadline Today
The deadline for the Texas Rangers to sign NPB pitcher Yu Darvish, for whom they won the posting rights last month, is today at 5pm ET, per the internet.

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