Archive for February, 2012

College Baseball Opening Weekend Notes (Pitchers)

Pitchers and catchers reported this past weekend, but what’s also exciting is that college baseball opened as well. It’s never too early to start reading about 2012 MLB draft prospects, and we’d like to start bringing you some coverage for the draft as well. Before we go on though, give @KendallRogersPG and @aaronfitt a follow on Twitter for live-updates of college prospects — they give you so much more than just line scores in their commentary.

Today, we’ll take a look at the notable pitching performances from the weekend, ranked approximately by 2012 pitching prospect you most need to know about:

RHP Mark Appel, Stanford (6-5, 195 lbs)
7.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 5K
While the stat line looks decent, reports out of Palo Alto were expecting more out of the early projected #1 overall pick. He touched 97 in the 1st, but remained in the low-90s the rest of the game. His changeup was not impressive, and he didn’t show a good breaking ball until the 5th. Keith Law ($) was not particularly impressed either with Appel’s continued lack of missed bats.

Read the rest of this entry »


Collin Cowgill, Brett Lawrie and Age vs. Level

Leave it to Fangraphs readers to supply thought-provoking questions worthy of an entire post. After last week’s prospect chat, reader “GrittleTooth” belted a grand slam in the comments area with this gem:

I get that age is very important when evaluating prospects, but isn’t it also true that guys develop at different speeds and some ‘get it’ latter than others? What I’m getting at is that when you compare, for example, Collin Cowgill & Brett Lawrie the numbers they put up in the PCL last year were rather similar (.442 vs .460 wOBA over roughly same # PA’s in same league). Yes, Lawrie is 4 years younger, more highly regarded, and plays a different position. But how can you argue with the lesser prospect’s numbers?

Two-hundred words into a response, I realized this would make for an excellent post topic on age-versus-level and how that effects player projection at the major league level – especially given the statistics for both Brett Lawrie and Collin Cowgill were eerily similar in the same league.

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 15 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds

I was prepared to write all sorts of glowing comments about the state of Cincinnati’s minor league system… but then a funny thing happened. The organization acquired one of the top arms in the National League at the cost of three key young prospects. Even with the trade dust now settled, though, the farm system still boasts some high ceiling prospects, as well as a plethora of interesting sleeper prospects.

1. Devin Mesoraco, C
BORN: June 19, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 1st round, Pennsylvania HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd

Mesoraco was a late-blooming prep star who stepped up his game at the right time and was selected in the first round of the 2007 draft. He had a slow start to his pro career, which began to extinguish his prospect flame but he threw some lighter fluid on the fire in ’10 and hasn’t stopped hitting since that time. The Pennsylvania native offers plus power and he may also hit for a decent batting average. Mesoraco isn’t just an offensive-minded catcher. He has a well-rounded game which includes solid throwing and excellent leadership. His receiving skills still need a little polishing. With his development the Reds’ front office was able to send fellow catching prospect Yasmani Grandal to the Padres in the Mat Latos deal, which nabbed the organization an outstanding young arm. Mesoraco should catch Latos in 2012 as he becomes the big league club’s starting catcher with Ryan Hanigan backing him up.

Read the rest of this entry »


Offseason Notes for Presidents Day


George Washington famously had a pocket full of horses.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Projecting: ZiPS for Pittsburgh
2. Video: Gerrit Cole in the AFL
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Kansas City Television

Projecting: ZiPS for Pittsburgh
Dan Szymborski has published his (30th, I think) ZiPS projections of the offseason — this, for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Below are some of the notable ones, accompanied by very rough WAR projections (for hitters per 600 plate appearances and pitchers per 200 innings). All numbers assume major-league competition. OPS+ and ERA+ are park-adjusted.

Starling Marte, CF, 23: .279/.320/.421, 100 OPS+, 2.6 WAR600
Nate McLouth, CF, 30: .243/.340/.391, 98 OPS+, 2.6 WAR600
Alex Presley, LF, 26: .275/.324/.426, 102 OPS+, 1.7 WAR600
Garrett Jones, RF, 31: .252/.317/.432, 101 OPS+, 1.6 WAR600

Again, I think maybe the league-average wOBA I’m using (.320) is lower than the one in the ZiPS universe, so just look at the numbers relative to each other. As of now, Alex Presley is slated to begin the season as the Pirates starting center fielder, but Presley’s hold on the position is probably pretty tenuous — or, certainly more so than Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata’s holds on their respective positions. Note that the very rough WAR projections above include only positional adjustments, but not defensive runs, which means that prospect Starling Marte (regarded as a plus defender, even in center) is likely better than Nate McLouth (-12.9 UZR/150 in 4486.0 career innings). Presley’s offensive projection is actually more optimistic than I would’ve expected.

Read the rest of this entry »


Trade Retrospective: Sabathia to Brewers

In 2008, the Milwaukee Brewers were one of the feel-good stories of the baseball season. They ended a 26-year postseason drought and brought October baseball back to the land of beer and cheese.

Milwaukee also made headlines when they orchestrated the blockbuster trade of the summer. To augment a starting rotation that lost young right-hander Yovani Gallardo earlier in the year to a torn ACL which he sustained in a freak injury against the Chicago Cubs, the Brewers sent first baseman Matt LaPorta, center fielder Michael Brantley, left-hander Zach Jackson, and right-handed reliever Rob Bryson to Cleveland in order to acquire their ace, CC Sabathia.

At the time, the four-prospect package was largely considered a steep price to pay for a half-year rental. Over three years later, though, how does that trade look?

Read the rest of this entry »


Don’t Marcum Down for an Extension Just Yet

Pitchers and catchers began to report to camps last week, signifying that baseball is close to resuming. Two of the pitchers that reported to camp — Matt Garza and Shaun Marcum — are currently seeking contract extensions from their respective teams. Garza put together the best year of his career in his first season with the Cubs, while Marcum helped lead the Brewers back to the playoffs in his first season with the team.

Despite their opposite approaches — Garza with the mid-90s heat and Marcum with the low-80s changeup — this pair of NL Central pitchers has performed similarly over the last two seasons. But while their numbers are almost identical since 2010 and they aren’t too far apart in age, the Cubs and Brewers should approach extension discussions differently.

Garza represents far less of a risk than Marcum, in both performance and health, and is a no-brainer extension candidate. The Brewers, on the other hand, should really wait it out with Marcum to confirm he’s healthy before even considering an extension. And even at that point it’s unclear if they have enough money to extend him and focus most of their efforts and resources on ensuring Zack Greinke stays.

The Brewers may actually be better suited to let Marcum walk into a crowded free agent class than to lock him up right now.

Read the rest of this entry »


Brad Grant on Scouting Francisco Lindor

When the Indians took Francisco Lindor with the 8th-overall pick in last year’s draft, they brought into the fold — in the opinion of scouting director Brad Grant — “a potential Gold Glove shortstop.” The 18-year-old switch-hitter also profiles well with the bat, which helps explain why Cleveland was willing to draft a high school player in the first round for the first time in a decade. Grant talked about the selection of Lindor, from the scouting process to the tools to the projection.

——

Grant on the discovery and pursuit of Francisco Lindor: “We first became aware of Francisco as a 16-year-old on Team USA. By the time he was 17, we were very, very aware of him. That’s what kind of made him a unique case for us: the amount of history we were able to build with him. We had already seen Francisco quite a bit by the time he got to his senior year of high school.

“Our first report on him said that he had the uncanny ability to play shortstop. His instincts and actions were advanced for his age. He had the type of ability where we could say, ’This guy can play shortstop and stay at shortstop.’ A lot of times you hear it said that a guy has a chance to stay at short. With Francisco, we were pretty sure that he could.

Read the rest of this entry »


Custom Teams Feature Updated

The new Custom Teams feature will replace the My Team and My Projections feature and now have the ability to create as many different team lists as you’d like, all while utilizing the existing leaderboards and projection pages.

If you’ve been using the old My Teams feature, your team will already appear in your custom team list as “My Team”.

To get to your team once it’s created, just click on the Leaders or Projections link.


FanGraphs Audio: Fantasy Friday w/ Eno Sarris

Episode 142
This episode of the podcast marks the first edition of Fantasy Friday for the 2012 season. In it, RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris reviews some difficult decisions from the keeper deadline (including Nelson Cruz, specifically); the gap in ADPs between Dustin Ackley and Jason Kipnis at second base; and some articles from FanGraphs Plus that were actually of benefit to him, even as one who writes and thinks constantly about fantasy baseball.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min. play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Here’s to You, Mr. Wakefield

Tim Wakefield wasn’t the best pitcher in Red Sox history (that’s Pedro Martinez), nor was he the most entertaining (guys like Bill “Spaceman” Lee, Luis Tiant and yes, Pedro, have that territory marked), but what he was one of the Nation’s favorites. For 17 years, he pitched, and acted, with the same stoicism. He never put himself above the game, and was always, always ready to take the ball, be it the top of the first, the bottom of the fourth, or the top of the 12th. He is set to announce his retirement today, but his legend will live forever.

Lest we forget though, his legend didn’t originate in Boston, but rather in Pittsburgh. Or, to put a finer point on it, Welland, Ontario. It was there that Wakefield began his transformation from banjo-hitting infielder to knuckleballer extraordinaire. The early results were promising — a 3.40 ERA in 18 appearances for the Bucs’ Low-A affiliate. Two and a half years later, he was in the Majors. He would finish third in the 1992 National League Rookie of the Year voting, despite not making his Major League debut until July 31. He built on his impressive two months in the postseason, winning two of the Pirates’ three games in the National League Championship Series against Atlanta, with both victories coming against Tom Glavine.

Read the rest of this entry »