Archive for May, 2012

When To Stop Making Excuses For Mike Minor

There are issues with Mike Minor on the mound. He has allowed far too many home runs this year, eight in eight starts, and his BABIP once again is astronomically higher than league average. His current BABIP of .336 is getting laughed at by the league average .288 mark, and his career BABIP of .353 is nowhere near the league average during that span of .290.

At this point, it is easy for some to conclude that Minor is rather hittable. He seems like a classic control but not command guy, as his 2.93 K/BB rate this season — which matches his career rate — shows that he can throw strikes at a high rate but not strikes of the highest quality. He has still started just 31 games and thrown 170.1 innings, so it is likely too early to say he will always be a pitcher with a high BABIP, despite the fact that the number has been high in each of his three stints in the majors.

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Broadcaster Rankings (Radio): #10 – #1

#30 – #21
#20 – #11

At the beginning of March, we released the results of our television broadcaster rankings — itself the product of reader crowdsourcing that had started in late November. Since then, FanGraphs has asked readers to rate the radio broadcast teams (on a scale of 1-5 for charisma, analysis, and then overall) for all 30 major-league clubs — with the intention, ultimately, of determining which broadcasts might best reflect the sorts of inquiry and analysis performed here at the site.

Below are the 10th- through top-ranked radio broadcast teams, per the FanGraphs readership.

But first, three notes:
• Teams are ranked in ascending order of Overall rating. Overall ratings are not merely averages of Charisma and Analysis.
• I’ve attempted to choose reader comments that are either (a) illustrative of the team’s place in the rankings or (b) conspicuously amusing.
• A complete table of ratings and ballots cast will appear in these pages Friday.

10. Tampa Bay Rays
Broadcasters: Andy Freed and Dave Wills
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 4.1, 4.0, 4.2

Three Reader Comments
• Regarding a promotion on the White Sox feed for XM Radio: “[T]he flashback highlight would always be Mark Buehrle’s perfect game, thrown against the Tampa Bay Rays. However, the voice in the clip they play belongs to Dave Wills, not Ed Farmer (and the Rays were the visitors that day).”
• “They knew more about Twins players than the Twins broadcast team.”
• “Would like to hear these guys discretely split up calling the game while the other keeps quiet. They often sound so alike you can’t tell which is doing the talking.”

Notes
In the vein of that third note above, there are multiple comments to the effect that Freed and Wills have decidedly similar voices — to the point that even longtime listeners might have difficulty in distinguishing between them. Otherwise, most respondents regard the broadcast as technically competent and also personable.

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Wei-Yin Chen’s Surprising Fastball

With an inability to develop quality arms stateside, the Baltimore Orioles have made an attempt to solve their pitching woes through the international market. Specifically, the Orioles have dove headfirst into Asia — too aggressively for the tastes of some in the Far East — bringing in two starting pitchers for 2012 in Tsuyoshi Wada and Wei-Yin Chen. Wada will spend the year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but the early returns on Chen have been extremely positive. Chen held the Yankees to two earned runs over 7 innings Tuesday night, extending his streak of starts with three or fewer earned runs through his first seven career starts. Chen owns a 2.66 ERA and a solid 3.41 FIP in his first 44 innings as an American professional, exceeding the expectations many had for him entering the year.

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FanGraphs Prospect Stock Watch – 05/17/12

Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Current Level: A-
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 3rd
Current Value: Improving

Cecchini, 21, is a left-handed-hitting third baseman who has hit very well since turning pro last year. He’s currently batting .301 with 14 steals in 16 attempts. He was a fourth round pick out of a Louisiana high school in 2010 and his power has yet to develop as expected with just one home run in 34 games. He’s showing good gap pop, though, with 13 doubles. He’s struck out a bit too much with 32 Ks and he has an OPS of just .524 against southpaw pitchers. Cecchini should spend the entire year in low-A working on the finer aspects of his game and will likely move fairly steadily through the system. If everything clicks, he could be a very successful big league player but patience is definitely required. Garin’s younger brother Gavin is set to become a first round draft pick during the 2012 amateur draft on June 4.

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Matt Klaassen Fangraphs Chat – 5/17/12


Marlon Byrd, Mike Moustakas De-Luck’d


A refreshed look at the data.

Specificity is both delightful and dangerous. The guys at The Book Blog have previously remarked about how UZR and WAR would be better for mass consumption without the decimal because neither stat can show a true talent level within a single season, but the extra decimal can make it appear more certain or accurate than it is. At the same time, though, the difference between 1.0 and 1.9 WAR can be the difference of a starting job or a bench role (or the difference between 1.6 and 2.4, if rounding is your thing).

Well, today we will err on the side of specificity. In the past, when a player’s BABIP was .498 or .93278, we would just say, “Well, he will regress to the mean,” and then resume our toiling lives. Now, with Fielding Independent wOBA, we can whip their numbers into shape, we can thrust them into the De-Lucker and find out where a regressed BABIP will take them — which is good news for Marlon Byrd, but bad news for Mike Moustakas.

Let’s examine it.
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Daily Notes: Considering the St. Louis Offense

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: St. Louis at San Francisco, 15:45 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: St. Louis at San Francisco, 15:45 ET
Regarding the St. Louis Offense, What All They Lead In
As of Wednesday, the St. Louis offense leads the majors both in park-adjusted offense (130 wRC+) and batter WAR (13.8) this season.

Regarding the St. Louis Offense, Their May So Far
The St. Louis offense has been particularly effective in May, leading the league in both park-adjusted offense (144 wRC+) and WAR (6.5).

Regarding If the Cardinals Were a Player
The Cardinals have accrued 169 player games and 577 plate appearances so far in May — or, roughly what one player might compile over the course of a season. Their batter WAR so far in May (again, 6.5) is higher than the total recorded by all but 12 major leaguers last season — most of whom accrued considerably more than 577 plate appearances.

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Zack Greinke Will Get Paid

Zack Greinke is putting himself in a great situation. Not only is the 28-year-old Milwaukee Brewers’ ace dominating hitters again, he’s doing it in a contract year. With the Brewers allegedly suspending contract talks with Greinke just last month, it looks like Greinke might take his chance on the free-agent market.

If Greinke were to hit free-agency, he and Cole Hamels would be the two most-sought-after starters. The Brewers have said they are willing to sign Greinke to a long-term extension — but based on recent pitcher deals — Greinke may price himself out of their budget.

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Josh Tomlin Versus Hitter “X”

Josh Tomlin’s K/9 has risen from 4.84 to 7.01 this season, but that doesn’t mean the Cleveland Indians right-hander is suddenly capable of overpowering hitters. He still needs to out-think them, as well as continue to display the outstanding command for which he is known. Lacking plus stuff, he also has to effectively vary his pitch sequences against each hitter.

Tomlin delved into his memory bank to give an example of how he mixes and matches. Hitter “X,” whom he faced three times in this particular game, bats from the right side.

——

Tomlin on Hitter X’s first at bat: “He’s a pretty patient guy, so I wanted to start off with a fastball down and away to get ahead early. The next pitch was a cutter away, to see if he was looking fastball and for something out over the plate. He fouled the ball off. That made the count 0-2, so I went with a fastball in, off the plate, for a ball. I wanted to see if he’d be leaning out over the plate, looking for an off-speed pitch or a cutter. I wasn’t trying to come in close enough to hit him, but rather, just close enough to see if he was diving. If he’s diving, it’s going to look closer to him than it actually is and he’s going to bail a little bit. I wanted to back him up.

“After standing him up, I went curveball and got a strikeout. The reports didn’t say that he’d chase, but they do say that he’ll get in swing mode every now and again. He’s a professional hitter, but it was one of those curveballs that started on the same plane as my fastball — kind of in and off the plate. It probably would have been a called strike if he hadn’t swung. As much as anything, I think it caught him off guard that I threw it for a strike in that situation. He took kind of an emergency hack.”

On the second at bat: “The second time I faced him, there was a guy on with two out. I went with a first-pitch curveball. Read the rest of this entry »


Kenny Diekroeger’s Season


Diekroeger dealing. Photo courtesy Stanford Athletics.

In 2009, Menlo High School shortstop Kenny Diekroeger was drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the second round and was reportedly offered just over a million dollars to join the organization. He chose Stanford and stayed close to his Northern California roots. Most players, when faced with a similar choice, follow suit.

Diekroeger has no regrets. And he thinks this season has been just fine, too. Talk to the shortstop for even a few minutes, and you’ll realize he’s got an even-keeled outlook.

“Maybe it’s too bad that I didn’t get to see a different part of the country,” he admits, but we agreed he has a lot of life left to live, and it’s nice to do laundry at home, even if “that doesn’t actually happen as often you might think.” This Burlingame, Woodside and Menlo Park raised local felt that “it’s hard to turn down Stanford,” and “this place is so nice” and that he’s really enjoyed his time on the farm.

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