The 18-10 Nationals remain in first place after taking two of three from the Phillies over the weekend, but their seasonal outlook significantly worsened when Jayson Werth left Sunday night’s game with a wrist injury.

Werth slid to make a catch on Placido Polanco’s blooper in the sixth inning. While it appeared that he made the catch, the ball fell out of his glove as his wrist awkwardly bent backward. A few minutes later, Werth was replaced by Xavier Nady, and after the game it was reported that he broke his left wrist.

At a minimum, Werth will miss six weeks. He joins Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Morse and Adam LaRoche as valuable Nationals out of action. The injury also ensures that Bryce Harper won’t get sent back down to the minors once some of the injured players return. Regardless, losing Werth clearly hurts the Nationals outfield, and opens up another hole in the lineup they may not be able to fill internally.

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The Milwaukee Brewers have not met their lofty expectations thus far in 2012, and a recent spat of injuries could make that an even more arduous task.

Left-hander Chris Narveson was lost to season-ending shoulder surgery a couple of weeks back. First baseman Mat Gamel tore his ACL and is likely to be sidelined for the remainder of the season. Center fielder Carlos Gomez just hit the 15-day disabled list with a left hamstring injury. Finally, over the weekend against the San Francisco Giants, shortstop Alex Gonzalez landed on the disabled list with what appears to be a very serious leg injury.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Atlanta at Chicago NL, 20:05 ET
2. Video You Can Watch: Jeff Samardzija’s Most Recent Start
3. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Atlanta at Chicago NL, 20:05 ET
Regarding Who’s Starting Tonight for Chicago
In terms of who’s starting tonight for Chicago, it’s right-hander Jeff Samardzija.

Regarding Why Anyone Should Give a Care
In terms of why anyone should give a care about how Jeff Samardzija is starting, consider that, among the 137 pitchers with 20-plus innings as a starter this season, he ranks 14th by xFIP (2.92), third in swinging-strike rate (13.0%), and third in average fastball velocity (95.0 mph, per PITCHf/x) — and also has an above-average overall strike rate (65.2%).

Regarding the Significance of the Aforecited Metrics
The significance of the aforecited metrics is that they’re all, each of them, scientifically proven by science to correlate pretty strongly with the aesthetic appeal — or, watchability — of a pitcher.

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Clayton Mortensen seems intent on showing that the Red Sox gained more than $5 million in payroll flexibility when they traded Marco Scutaro to Colorado in January. The 27-year-old right-hander has been outstanding in a pair of long-relief appearances since being called up from Triple-A. Were it not for Mark Reynolds, he would be almost perfect. The Orioles third baseman has homered and doubled against Mortensen — while hitters not named Mark Reynolds are a combined 1 for 20 with 11 strikeouts. Eight outs have come via ground balls.

Mortensen credits an ability to mix and match within the zone for his success. Of his 104 pitches during the two games, 44 have been either a two- or four-seamer, 32 have been changeups and 28 have been sliders. He has thrown strikes with 66% of his deliveries. Nearly 70% of his changeups have been strikes.

Mortensen talked about his repertoire over the weekend at Fenway Park.

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Mortensen on his slider: “My slider isn’t a typical slider. It doesn’t necessarily break right-to-left. It has more depth to it, so it’s more of a down-ball. It also has three different movements, depending on where my release point is. When I really accentuate staying on top of it — away to a righty — it will have a little depth and a little right-to-left movement. If I try to throw it down the middle, it’s more straight down. Sometimes it kind of screws. It’s basically because of the way I grip it. I kind of cock my wrist a little bit. To be honest, I try to throw it as hard as I can and it just kind of does what it wants to do.

“I threw one to Brandon Inge that he took for a strike, and then I threw another one that had a little more sideways action. I could see that he was kind of like, ‘What was that?’” Read the rest of this entry »

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: St. Louis at Houston, 14:05 ET (Free Game)
2. Other Notable Games
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: St. Louis at Houston, 14:05 ET
Regarding This Game, How Expensive It Is to Watch
This game costs zero dollars to watch, on account of it’s today’s MLB.TV Free Game (link).

Regarding Houston, Their Recent Success
After their 5-4 victory over St. Louis on Friday (box), Houston’s WAR winning percentage — i.e. an entirely infallible metric that no one should question — rose from .525 to .537.

Regarding Houston, Their Success on Saturday
On Saturday, Houston once again defeated St. Louis — this time by a score of 8-2 (box).

Regarding That Saturday Game, Houston’s Greatest Contributors
Regarding that Saturday game, Houston’s greatest contributor in terms of WPA was third baseman Chris Johnson (.341), largely on account of a first-inning grand slam he hit off Jaime Garcia. In terms of wOBA, the team’s single-game leader was center fielder Justin Maxwell (.804), on account of posting this line: 4 PA, 2 2B, 1 BB.

Regarding Today’s Starting Pitchers
Today’s starting pitchers are Adam Wainwright (26.2 IP, 77 xFIP-, -0.1 WAR) for St. Louis and J.A. Happ (29.1 IP, 97 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR) for Houston.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: St. Louis at Houston, 19:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: St. Louis at Houston, 19:05 ET
Regarding the Houston Astros as of Friday
As of Friday, the Houston Astros were tied (with San Francisco) for the 11th-best WAR winning percentage in the majors, at .525.

Regarding the Houston Astros on Friday
On Friday, the Houston Astros defeated the St. Louis Cardinals — that is, the team with the best overall WAR winning percentage — by a score of 5-4 (box).

Regarding One Reason the Astros’ Early Success Is Surprising
One reason the Astros’ early success is surprising is because they were the worst team in the majors last season by almost every measure.

Another Reason the Astros’ Early Success Is Probably Surprising
Another reason the Astros’ early success is probably surprising is because they have both (a) the third-lowest payroll in the majors and (b) second-youngest overall batter age.

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Yesterday, the Padres traded reliever Ernesto Frieri to the Angels, in exchange for Minor Leaguers Alexi Amarista and Donn Roach. Frieri has pitched very well thus far this season, with walk and strikeout rates significantly better than he had in 2011, albeit in a much smaller sample. But will the Angels be getting that pitcher? Petco Park seemingly has a way of elevating mediocre pitchers into above-average, or even elite ones. That has never seemed as prevalent as it has this year, as we have watched Heath Bell struggle to put away the likes of Joaquin Arias and Travis Buck.

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Episode 177
Paul Swydan is a contributor not only to the terribly erudite pages of FanGraphs, but also to ESPN and the various efforts of Major League Baseball Advanced Media. A native son of the Boston area, he’s a Red Sox fan who also worked for six years selling tickets for, and editing the team magazine of, the Colorado Rockies. Also discussed: how the heat was always on on WSBK TV-38.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 44 min. play time.)

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Brandon Morrow entered the 2012 season as one of MLB’s ultimate “what if” pitchers. He has owned excellent peripheral statistics throughout his entire career but has struggled mightily with balls in play and with stranding runners, resulting in ERAs much higher than estimators like FIP or xFIP or SIERA would have us expect. Morrow wouldn’t be the first pitcher to prove an exception to DiPS theory — Ricky Nolasco, for example, has followed a similar path. Morrow’s excellent strikeout-inducing stuff — three seasons over 10 K/9 — and his past two seasons with FIPs well below the league average led many to ponder what could happen if he puts it all together.

Oddly enough, entering last night’s start against the Angels, Morrow was excelling in the same facets of the game that typically kill him. He owned a 3.03 ERA despite just 21 strikeouts in 32.2 innings and seven home runs allowed, but a .215 BABIP and exceptional control kept runners off the bases. The Brandon Morrow of old really hadn’t surfaced — the one with all the potential and all the strikeouts — but he was more effective than ever, living off pinpoint control (2.2 BB/9) and his fielders as opposed swings and misses.

Last night against the Angels, Morrow threw a three-hit, eight-strikeout shutout, bringing together the best of both worlds.

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