Cole Hamels is already on his way to another great season. Hamels’ performance is especially noteworthy since he’ll be a free-agent at the end of the season. While the Philadelphia Phillies have shown interest in locking up the 28-year-old lefty, talks with Hamels haven’t progressed much. If Hamels does reach free-agency, he — along with Zack Greinke — will be the most sought-after starting pitcher on the market. Based on their similarities, it wouldn’t be surprising for both players to receive similar offers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 185
Contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and author of two books (one of them decent) Dayn Perry makes his regular weekly appearance on FanGraphs Audio. Discussed: not so much wrestling in the 1980s as Perry’s memories of wrestling in the 1980s. Invoked: the phrase “crimson mask” over and over.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 49 min. play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

In the 2012 season, few players have disappointed on the Texas Rangers roster: Yu Darvish is a stud (2.98 xFIP in his last six starts), Adrian Beltre apparently lied about his age (he’s 10 years younger than previously believed), and Josh Hamilton is using a Game Genie and is 7 homers away — so, like a week away — from matching his 2011 home run total.

In the Rangers Machine, the only cog slipping from the threads (if we discount Matt Harrison’s BABIP’d ERA) is the converted starter Neftali Feliz. He may have a solid ERA (3.16), but the 24-year-old has danced in and out of trouble all season, striking out a career low 21.1% of batters while walking a career high 13.1%, and on top of it all, he’s headed to the DL with a right elbow strain.

Could the injury have caused his decreasing effectiveness? Possibly, but upon closer inspection, it becomes apparent that Feliz has altered the approach that made him a successful reliever and the change has only hurt him.
Read the rest of this entry »

Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B, Boston Red Sox
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 1st
Current Value: Star-in-the-making

Bogaerts lept into the hearts of prospect watchers (and diehard Boston fans) last season when he took the full-season South Atlantic League by storm and produced a wRC+ of 120 despite his relative lack of experience. Bogaerts, still just 19, is now leaving his impression on the high-A Carolina League. Although he’s currently hitting .278, Bogaerts’ power display is down from last year (.249 to .137 ISO) but he’s a better all-around hitter; his walk rate has increased more than 1% over last year and his strikeout rate has dropped almost 6% to 18.6%. He’s still playing at an above-average level for his league with a wRC+ of 117. The Aruba native’s ceiling remains huge and he’s eventually going to tap back into his above-average raw power.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cleveland’s 5-3 win over preseason divisional favorite Detroit may have finally garnered their current divisional lead some attention. What is at least somewhat surprising about Cleveland’s lead is that some of their seemingly more significant pieces have performed poorly — one thinks particularly of the supposed top of their starting rotation (Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson). However, the offense has been playing well, relatively speaking. They currently have the best wRC+ out of all the teams in the division.

Cleveland’s good hitting so far this season can be credited to Carlos Santana, the resurgence (at least in walk rate) of Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Kipnis starting the year in the majors, and yet another early-season hot streak by Jack Hannahan, Cleveland’s most valuable hitter to this point in the season has been shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera had a excellent 2011 that led to a nice extension, but most observers (as well as projection systems) expected regression. So far, that has not happened. Cabrera has been even better in the young 2012 season (153 wRC+ compared to 118 in 2011). How is he doing it, and to what extent is it sustainable?

Read the rest of this entry »

For my day job, I write up scouting reports on amateur players for ESPN’s Draft Blog but have been catching minor league games on the side when my schedule permits. I’m happy to bring some of my scouting reports to FanGraphs, and first up is the buzziest prospect of them all, Orioles righty Dylan Bundy. I caught his start in Charleston versus the Yankees affiliate on May 7th and I pieced together some video from the game:

Video after the jump

Read the rest of this entry »

In January, the Tampa Bay Rays signed 33-year-old Luke Scott to a one-year, $5M contract (plus a club option for 2013) to serve as the team’s primary designated hitter.

He struggled last season with the Baltimore Orioles, only hitting .220/.301/.402 and failing to be at least a one-win player for the first time since his rookie season in 2005. The vast majority of his struggles, however, could be explained away by his mid-season shoulder surgery, which he underwent to repair a torn labrum. Finally healthy, the Rays looked to capitalize on an undervalued asset, hoping Scott would regain his previous form and produce somewhere around his career-average wOBA of .358.

This year, after a torrid start that saw him compile a .380 wOBA with eleven extra-base hits in the month of April, things have begun to cool off. He has hit .219/.286/.384 in the month of May, and his current .331 wOBA ranks below average amongst league DHs, who average a .347 wOBA on the year thus far.

Some of his drop off in May can be attributed to a .224 BABIP. In fact, his year-to-date BABIP of .240 is 52-points below his career average. The Tampa Bay Rays should expect that number to climb, especially since his 18.8% line drive rate has been slightly better than his career average. A few more balls in play find the outfield grass, rather than an outfielder’s glove, and his production should no longer be below average for the designated hitter position.

Read the rest of this entry »

Carlos Pena led off last night. Carlos Pena led off for the first time in his career last night. Carlos Pena led off, despite averaging about two stolen bases per season and going against one old-school adage (speed at the top!) even as he fits another (second basemen bat second!).

Just how rare was the occurrence, though? And given the current state of the Rays, was it a good idea?

Read the rest of this entry »

NOTE: precisely 258 respondents to the poll below believe that 10.3 Nationals batters will strike out against Phillies pitching tonight. Standard deviation: 3.3.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Washington at Philadelphia, 19:05 ET
2. Shameless Poll Situation: National Strikeouts
3. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Washington at Philadelphia, 19:05 ET
Regarding Who’s Pitching This Game
In terms of who’s pitching this game, it’s Edwin Jackson for Washington and Cole Hamels for Philadelphia.

Why Anyone Should Give a Care
A reader might be interested to know — apropos tonight’s starters Edwin Jackson and Cole Hamels — that they’ve both, generally speaking, been excellent this season. Like, how Jackson has posted this line: 51.2 IP, 88 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR. And how Hamels has posted this one: 54.1 IP, 78 xFIP-, 1.5 WAR.

Why Else Anyone Might Give a Care
A reader might also be interested to know that Jackson (at 13.1%) and Hamels (at 13.0% even) are ranked second and third, respectively, among 118 qualified starters in terms of swinging-strike rate.

What That Means, Generally
Generally speaking, a high swinging-strike rate leads to a high strikeout rate. (The two variables together have an r-squared of about 0.70.)

Read the rest of this entry »