Heading into Tuesday’s games, the White Sox and Indians sit half a game apart atop of the American League Central division, with the expected division-winner Tigers five games back. This morning, Chris Cwik addressed the White Sox’ need to upgrade at third base to stay competitive in the division. The Indians need an upgrade as well–a big, powerful upgrade.

The Indians’ 32-27 record is a bit misleading. Cleveland’s scored only 261 runs and allowed 277, putting the team’s Pythagorean record at 28-31. The Tigers have nearly the same split and sit at 28-32 in the standings. The White Sox, on the other hand, have scored 291 runs and allowed 256, putting their 32-26 pretty much in line with their expected record.

Cleveland’s offense is doing somethings well. The Tribe has the highest walk rate (9.8%) and the lowest strikeout rate (16.2%) in the American League, putting them third in the league in on-base percentage (.329). But the Indians’ wOBA (.314) ranks only ninth. Why? A complete lack of power.

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Punctuation is so fascist. Throw punctuation on this title and you rob it the statement of its’ many possible meanings. While we can say that Vladimir Guerrero is now a free agent after the Blue Jays granted him his release, to say that Vladimir Guerrero is now free is much more ambiguous. And, in a way, captures more of the essence of what happened today.

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UPDATED

Last week I wrote about how losing velocity at different ages impacts a pitcher’s chance to throw 40 or fewer innings the next season (what I labeled “attrition”).

The overall finding was that losing velocity at any age increases the likelihood of attrition for pitchers, and that likelihood only increases with age. Overall, pitchers in the data set had a 29% chance of attrition between years one and two. If they lost at least 1 mph on their fastball, however, that rate jumped to 39%. Pitchers that didn’t lose at least 1 mph only had an 18% attrition rate–so half the odds. Starting at age 34, the attrition rate jumped to 50% and climbed for each age cohort until roughly age 39. (Thirty-eight-year-olds who lost velocity magically bucked the trend, attriting at about the same rate as all other pitchers.)

Eno Sarris asked me whether, as some have suggested, pitchers who relied on a change-up as their primary secondary pitch (such as a James Shields or Mark Buehrle) gained some kind of advantage, in terms of attrition. Do these pitchers have a lower chance of injury or ineffectiveness than someone who relies heavily on either a curveball (e.g. A.J. Burnett) or a slider (e.g. Ervin Santana)?

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Late last night, word came down that the Dodgers had come to terms with Andre Ethier on a five year contract extension that will keep him out of the free agent pool this winter. The price for keeping him away from the market? $85 million guaranteed with a vesting sixth year option that could push it to $100 million total. There’s no two ways around it – this contract means that the Dodgers will be paying Ethier at a rate that he probably won’t be able to justify for very long.

If we assume that we’re going to see price inflation of 5% per win over the next few years, the Dodgers essentially just paid Ethier for something close to +15 wins from 2013 to 2017, or pretty close to exactly what he’s been worth in previous five year increments in his career.

2006-2010: +13 WAR
2007-2011: +13 WAR
2008-2012: +14 WAR (and counting – likely will end the year with +15 or +16)

There’s just one problem, of course – those five year windows covered Ethier’s 24-28, 25-29, and 26-30 timeframes, but this contract buys his age 31-35 seasons. If you have a guy who is worth about +15 WAR during his prime five years, he’s almost certainly not going to be worth +15 WAR during the first five years after he turns 30. The Dodgers essentially paid for in-his-prime Ethier and will be happy with the contract until age begins to catch up with him. Whether that happens in 2014 or 2016 remains to be seen, but it’s pretty likely that this contract is going to end with the Dodgers giving a significant amount of cash to a guy who isn’t playing well enough to justify the cost.

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Bobby Borchering, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 7th
Current Value: Holding Steady

Borchering (16th) and Matt Davidson (35th) were both selected prior to the second round of the 2009 amateur draft and both were drafted as third basemen. Davidson has thrived in pro ball and is already in double-A. On the other hand, Borchering’s approach at the plate has left something to be desired and has resulted in low walk rates and high strikeout rates and it has hampered his development. That remains true in 2012 but his results have been getting a little bit better with each month as he repeats high-A ball. Now an outfielder, Borchering is hitting for power (32 extra base hits in 64 games) but he may never hit for average unless he makes more adjustments and learns to identify and handle breaking balls. A switch-hitter, the 21-year-old doesn’t hit left-handers very well and focusing solely on swinging from the left side might help him improve a little bit quicker.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. By Popular Demand: Notes on the Can-Am League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

By Popular Demand: Notes on the Can-Am League
Here are those notes on the Can-Am League which you, the Public, demanded via a purposeful and spirited letter-writing campaign to various media outlets and civic leaders.

First of All, What Is the Can-Am League
The Can-Am League is an independent baseball league which appears to consist presently of five teams: the New Jersey Jackals, Newark Bears (formerly of the Atlantic League, also independent), the Québec Capitales, the Rockland Boulders, and Worcester Tornadoes.

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The Chicago White Sox are one of baseball’s biggest surprises. While the team didn’t have high expectations entering the season, they currently have a .5 game lead in the AL Central. And with the Detroit Tigers currently struggling, the White Sox could find themselves buyers at the trade deadline. If they hope to stay in the playoff race, they might want to look at upgrading third base.

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Quintin Berry is off to a fast start. The Detroit Tigers outfielder is hitting .290/.372/.406 in his first 18 games as a big leaguer. He is also stealing bases, which should come as no surprise. The 27-year-old former Phillies prospect was a prolific thief in the minors, swiping at least 40 bags in five of his six full professional seasons. Since donning a Tigers uniform, he has been perfect in all seven attempts.

Berry discussed the art of the stolen base on a recent visit to Fenway Park.

——

Berry on stealing bases in the big leagues: “I often wondered whether my speed was going to get me to the big leagues, because it’s always been my best tool. Fortunately it did and I’ve been able to use it a lot since I’ve been here.

“I feel that stealing bases is the same anywhere. The only difference here is that the stakes are higher and the margin of error for mistakes is very small. You have to make sure that you’re being smart about the situation, but I feel good. I feel just as confident here as I did at the lower levels. I know that I can steal bases.”

On preparation: “There is definitely more [data] available here than in the minors. I’m able to see the times a lot better, so I’m getting more reads on pitchers. I’m able to see video on them before games, so I have an idea of what they’re working with. For me, stealing bases is like hitting. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 196
FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron makes his weekly appearance.

Discussed:
• Luck and unsustainability, the difference therein (especially as regards Tim Lincecum).
• How the Pirates are accidentally in first place; the Cardinals, accidentally in third.
• Mike Trout: early MVP candidate?

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 33 min. play time.)

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