Episode 193
FanGraphs contributor and Philosophy PhD candidate Matt Klaassen is the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Discussed:
• The ideal ballpark experience.
• Klaassen’s beloved, beloved Kansas City Royals.
• Epistemology. Obviously.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr. and 9 min. play time.)

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With or without the new CBA, Rhett Wiseman was going to be a difficult sign. The top high school prospect from New England has a commitment to Vanderbilt, and his academic credentials are every bit as impressive as his tools. As driven as he is on the diamond, he is equally committed to his education.

Scouting directors do their homework. Going into the draft, they knew that Wiseman‘s stance was, ”First round or Vandy.” They were also aware that he wants to play professional baseball. The prep outfielder was signable beyond round one — but only to a point.

In previous years, Wiseman would have been taken on the second day of the draft. The high-upside teenager was viewed as anywhere from a second- to a fourth-round talent, and big money has historically been available in that range. Last year, nine players selected between rounds two and four were individually given $1 million or more in bonuses, and 19 second-round picks received over-slot money.

Thanks in part to the new CBA, Wiseman went to the Chicago Cubs earlier today in the 25th round. Anything is possible, but the chances of him signing now seems remote.

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Bryce Harper may have added to his legend with his game-winning hit in the Nationals’ 7-6 extra-innings victory over the Mets yesterday, but Ian Desmond’s night at the plate was more remarkable, according to Win Probability Added (WPA). Not only was Desmond’s game-tying double earlier in the final inning worth more WPA than Harper’s game-winning hit (.380 to .349), but his total WPA for the game was 1.017.

That’s right — Desmond’s contributions were worth more than one “win” according to WPA. Of course, that’s a bit of a deceptive way of saying it. WPA is measuring the shift in “probability” or “certainty” of winning given the relative score, inning, base/out state, and run environment. In a game like yesterday’s, with many ties that were broken, plus extra innings (any one of which could have been the final inning), there are even more opportunities for big WPA events. Thus, Desmond got additional big boosts from his game-tying single in the bottom of the eighth as well as his run-scoring reached on error in the bottom of the tenth.

How often do hitters end up with a single-game WPA over 1? Not often, but according to our database, it has happened 42 times in the regular season since 1974. In fact, Desmond’s big game is only the 35th highest score on the list. Each has a story, but here are three that I have picked out semi-randomly.

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Clayton Blackburn, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Current Level: A
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 12th
Current Value: Skyrocketing

Blackburn, 19, is having a breakout season in his first full year in the minors. The right-hander has struck out 62 batters in 53.1 while issuing just 10 walks. He’s also induced a high number of ground-ball outs while allowing just one home run. Blackburn has allowed one run in his last three starts (22.1 IP) with 11 hits and two walks allowed. He’s struck out 21.The Texas native has now made 22 appearances over the past two seasons and has yet to truly struggle. Signed to an over-slot contract as a 16th round draft pick in 2011, Blackburn has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter. The Giants organization just continues to find a way to identify and develop top-shelf pitching prospects.

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Note: The attrition data and chart was updated, showing a larger gap for just about all age cohorts

On May 26, the Twins released 33-year-old starter Jason Marquis. Considering how bad Twins pitchers have been this season, it really spoke to how bad Marquis’ numbers were to that point in the season.

In seven starts, Marquis posted a 8.47 ERA and a 7.25 FIP, numbers driven largely by a 7.5% strikeout rate, a 27.3% HR/FB and a sky-high .352 BABIP against. There was some speculation that, since Marquis has lost about 2 mph on his fastball since 2009, it was likely that he’d become more hittable — particularly at age 33.

This led to some discussion on Twitter about whether there was a greater likelihood that Marquis’ velocity drop at his age was more of an issue than if he had been a younger pitcher. It’s a legitimate question — whether diminished velocity has an impact, depending on age.

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Last week, ESPN conducted their second annual Franchise Player Draft, where they recruited thirty of their contributors to select players to theoretically build a team around. When they did this last year, we thought it was a fun idea, so (with their permission), we did one ourselves. Obviously, our guys have a slightly different perspective than many of the ESPN guys, so while the idea is the same, the theories behind the picks are not. It won’t take very long for you to see where some of the ideological differences begin to display themselves.

The draftees were given fairly simple instructions — everyone is starting a franchise from scratch, so it’s up to you to decide how to value short term versus long term wins. You’re not currently in either rebuilding or win now mode, but what pick you make might determine which path you go down. You will control the player’s rights for 10 years, and the actual contract they are signed to in MLB does not come into play. This is solely based on expected future production, so there is no cost analysis that needs to be done. That’s the game — take the guy that you would most want to build around for the next 10 years.

So, without further ado, let’s get to the picks.

#1 — Mike Axisa: Matt Kemp, OF

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When Stanford right-hander Mark Appel began his free-fall from the top spot to the eighth-overall selection due to signability concerns, many pointed to the new draft rules agreed upon in the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement as the culprit.

The new draft rules call for each pick in the first ten rounds to have a monetary value. The draft budget for each team is the combined value of their respective draft picks in the first ten rounds. By now, most following the draft are aware that penalties exist for exceeding the draft budget — first a tax, then the loss of future draft picks. The catch is, though, that any unsigned pick in the first ten rounds costs that team the corresponding budget money allotted to that specific pick, and any bonus greater than $100,000 after the tenth round still counts toward the overall draft budget.

Thus, Mark Appel fell to the number eight slot held by the Pittsburgh Pirates because teams felt the Stanford pitcher would demand too much of their budget, and the worst scenario for any team would be that the two sides failed to come to an agreement. Little would happen to Appel. He would simply return to Stanford for his senior year and return for the 2013 Draft. Though for the major league team, they would not only throw away a first-round pick, but also forfeit a huge portion of their draft budget, which would handcuff their options in remaining rounds.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Tampa Bay at New York AL, 19:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Tampa Bay at New York AL, 19:05 ET
This Same Matchup Last Night
These same teams played in last night’s featured game, too — won by New York, 7-0 (box).

Three Reasonable Comments About That Game
Here are three comments about that game likely to appeal to a FanGraphs reader:

• Andy Pettitte was unusually excellent. Line: 7.1 IP, 25 TBF, 10 K, 2 BB, 9 GB on 13 batted-balls (69.2%), 1.88 xFIP.
• James Shields, who started for Tampa Bay and has been excellent this season (73.0 IP, 69 xFIP-, 1.2 WAR), recorded more walks (four) than strikeouts (two) for the first time since April of 2011 — or so his game log would have one believe
• Tampa Bay outfielder Desmond Jennings (126 PA, .303 BABIP, 114 wRC+, 1.1 WAR) returned from knee injury, his first appearance since May 11th. ZiPS still projects him to finish with a WAR of 3.7.

An Unreasonable Comment About That Game
Here’s a fourth, considerably less reasonable comment about that game:

• That victory represents a turning point in the Yankees’ season.

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