Francisco Liriano turned some heads with his May 30th start against Oakland, in which he tossed six shutout innings with nine strikeouts. It was Oakland, though, and that leaves an obvious question heading into Tuesday night’s start against Kansas City: was it the lineup, or did Liriano actually turn a corner?
On Sunday, Daniel Bard faced thirteen Blue Jays — he got four outs, walked six, hit two more, and gave up a home run for good measure. Despite that being the only hit he allowed, he gave up five runs, putting a cap on the disaster that has been his experiment as a starting pitcher. Given that he’s either walked or beaned 18 percent of the batters he’s faced this year, it’s pretty easy to say that Bard’s primary issue has been command. That’s hard to argue with — after all, on May 29, he threw a pitch that “missed the center of the strike zone by more than a full Shaquille O’Neal.”
So, it’s fairly simple to say that Daniel Bard’s lack of command has betrayed him, and his inability to throw strikes with consistency has been his primary problem. Simple, but maybe not accurate. Instead, I wonder if perhaps Bard’s insanely high walk rates aren’t actually just a symptom of the real problem.
For your visual enjoyment, here is a plot of every pitcher whose average fastball velocity this year is lower than it was last year.
They say it’s better to be lucky than good. Jorge Soler, however, is hoping to be both. Cuban ballplayers often score big in free agency — as their national system often gives them a leg up developmentally on teenagers from other international destinations. But with the impending change in how the international market will be governed, Soler could end up scoring bigger than most.
Billed as a potential five-tool player with plus-plus power and a very quick bat, the 20-year old outfielder stands out as a tantalizing prospect. It’s been said that he may have been one of the top five picks in last year’s draft, and since that was a loaded draft, the same might very well have been true this year. Assuming everything goes smoothly with his transition to the pros, Soler will almost assuredly be a top 50 prospect next season. Now, whether or not he eventually pans out is another story. Certainly, the track record for Cuban prospects isn’t one that guarantees success: The bloom is off the roses of two recent signees in Jose Iglesias and Leonys Martin, and guys like Juan Miranda and Brayan Pena never really worked out, either. Of course, none of those four came with Soler’s ceiling, but they serve as cautionary tales.
For reference, here’s a comprehensive — but possibly incomplete — chart of all the current Cuban-born players who signed as free agents, and the particulars of their signing:
In an age where most picks are revealed on Twitter by Jim Callis or Keith Law, the Astros managed to pull off a legitimate surprise and took shortstop Carlos Correa with the first overall pick in the 2012 draft. Correa offered the Astros premium potential and the likelihood of saving a little bit of money on the selection, which then gave them the opportunity to take Lance McCullers Jr. with their second selection — so the pick had multiple benefits for the team.
But it also created a chain reaction that caused presumed top selection Mark Appel to slide all the way to Pittsburgh at No. 8. And in turn, that is going to make the Pirates decisions today perhaps the most interesting in recent draft history.
Let us delve once again into the numbers. The season is now two months aged and we have more stories unfolding than we have enough digital ink to cover: Will the Red Sox ever find an outfielder? Is Adam Jones the new Matt Kemp? Can the White Sox really make a playoff push in a rebuilding year? And will the 2012 Pirates really go down as one of the worst offenses in modern history?
We will not truly know the answers to these questions for some time, but we can peer into the murky mirror-mirror that is the De-Lucker! and at least get a better feel for the state of everything. Much of the offensive fluctuations in the early part of the season come from strange movements in BABIP. The De-Lucker! attempts to smooth those fluctuations and give us a better guess as to who is doing well and who is not.
And Josh Hamilton, you will see, is in both categories.
Read the rest of this entry »
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Three Links Relevant to the Draft
2. Featured Game: Tampa Bay at New York AL, 19:05 ET
3. Other Notable Games
4. Today’s Complete Schedule
Three Links Relevant to the Draft
Here are three links relevant to the amateur draft, the first round of which (including all supplemental picks) was conducted Monday night.
Text of Marc Hulet’s Draft Chat
Our prospect man Marc Hulet conducted a live chat during last night’s draft. Read it over for the player profiles, if nothing else — like this one for first-overall pick, Puerto Rican high school shortstop Carlos Correa:
Correa was my personal favorite for the first overall pick. A big shortstop, he is very athletic and could stick at the position as long as he doesn’t keep growing. However, he may have the tools to be an above-average third baseman, as well. He has a very impressive approach at the plate with a well-balanced stance and smooth swing with excellent bat speed; he should hit for both power and average.
Baseball America Recap of First Round
Includes a list of 10 best remaining players and this quote from Houston scouting director Bobby Heck regarding the Astros’ pick of the aforementioned Correa:
“He’s a power-hitting shortstop and that’s a pretty good separator,” Heck said. “All of the players we considered had strong profiles as well, but it was tough to walk away from the shortstop with power potential.”
Wikipedia Entry on Conscription in the United States
Not relevant to baseball — but edifying!
Dave Martinez is expected to become a big-league manager someday, and he’ll be well prepared when he gets the opportunity. The Tampa Bay Rays bench coach couldn’t ask for a better mentor. Following a 20-year playing career, the 47-year-old Martinez has spent the last five seasons working under Joe Maddon.
——
David Laurila: How differently might you look at the game were it not for Joe Maddon?
Dave Martinez: It would certainly be different. The game is changing and what I’ve learned from Joe is that you have to change with the game or you’ll fall behind. Joe is really knowledgeable and does his homework. We [coaches] get a bunch of information from him.
DL: What is your primarily role as the Rays’ bench coach?
DM: I do everything Joe does, except I don’t have to deal with the media and I don’t get credit for anything. I help manage the game the way I see fit. I’m very opinionated and give Joe my opinions. Ultimately, he makes the final decisions, but I do the best I can to manage the games alongside him.
DL; Does he expect you to disagree with him? Read the rest of this entry »
Episode 192
FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron makes his weekly appearance.
Discussed:
• The draft, who’s available in it this year.
• The draft, how the CBA affects it.
• Dick Allen, against Dave Cameron’s will.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 38 min. play time.)
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It’s draft day.
The first round (and supplemental 1st) is scheduled for tonight, beginning at 7 p.m. EST, and the next 39 rounds will be on Tuesday, June 5 (rounds two through 15) and Wednesday, June 6 (rounds 16 through 40), beginning at noon EST on both days. I’ll be live blogging the first round of the draft beginning at 7 p.m. eastern.
It’s pretty much a forgone conclusion that Houston will take Stanford right-hander Mark Appel with the first overall selection. After that, though, there are still plenty of rumors flying around. Below is my best educated guess on how the first round will play out, based on industry rumours and discussions with baseball officials and scouts. I recently wrote a post detailing my personal draft board.
1. Houston Astros: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford U
2. Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton, OF, Georgia HS
