FanGraphs Mock Draft
It’s draft day.
The first round (and supplemental 1st) is scheduled for tonight, beginning at 7 p.m. EST, and the next 39 rounds will be on Tuesday, June 5 (rounds two through 15) and Wednesday, June 6 (rounds 16 through 40), beginning at noon EST on both days. I’ll be live blogging the first round of the draft beginning at 7 p.m. eastern.
It’s pretty much a forgone conclusion that Houston will take Stanford right-hander Mark Appel with the first overall selection. After that, though, there are still plenty of rumors flying around. Below is my best educated guess on how the first round will play out, based on industry rumours and discussions with baseball officials and scouts. I recently wrote a post detailing my personal draft board.
1. Houston Astros: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford U
2. Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton, OF, Georgia HS
3. Seattle Mariners: Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico HS
4. Baltimore Orioles: Kevin Gausman, RHP, Louisiana State U
5. Kansas City Royals: Max Fried, LHP, California HS
6. Chicago Cubs: Albert Almora, OF, Florida HS
7. San Diego Padres: Kyle Zimmer, RHP, U San Francisco
8. Pittsburgh Pirates: Mike Zunino, C, U Florida
9. Miami Marlins: Courtney Hawkins, OF, Texas HS
10. Colorado Rockies: David Dahl, OF, Alabama HS
11. Oakland Athletics: Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State U
12. New York Mets: Gavin Cecchini, SS, Louisiana HS
13. Chicago White Sox: Marcus Stroman, RHP, Duke U
14. Cincinnati Reds: Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State U
15. Cleveland Indians: Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M
16. Washington Nationals: Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson U
17. Toronto Blue Jays: Lance McCullers Jr., RHP, Florida HS
18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Ty Hensley, RHP, Oklahoma HS
19. St. Louis Cardinals: Stryker Trahan, C/OF, Louisiana HS
20. San Francisco Giants: Nick Travieso, RHP, Florida HS
21. Atlanta Braves: Stephen Piscotty, 3B/OF, Stanford U
22. Toronto Blue Jays: Lucas Giolito, RHP, California HS
23. St. Louis Cardinals: Addison Russell, SS, Florida HS
24. Boston Red Sox: Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi State U
25. Tampa Bay Rays: Cory Seager, 3B, North Carolina HS
26. Arizona Diamondbacks: Tyler Naquin, OF, Texas A&M
27. Milwaukee Brewers: Clint Coulter, C, Washington HS
28. Milwaukee Brewers: Lewis Brinson, OF, Florida HS
29. Texas Rangers: Zach Eflin, RHP, Florida HS
30. New York Yankees: Matt Smoral, LHP, Ohio HS
31. Boston Red Sox: Lucas Sims, RHP, Georgia HS
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
I really like Correa. With highschool batters, younger is almost always better. That said, the Twins will take the toolsy high school player with potential in Buxton, and that is a far better pick than Appel.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295&mode=print&nocache=1338302923
This was the article that I got my information from. Fabulous read. Basically, young hitters are a massive market inefficiency. (I got the link in a thread somewhere, probably in a comment on fangraphs, so kudos to whoever posted it earlier.)
Most the mocks I have seen have the Rangers taking Smoral. So many that I have accepted it and am now looking forward to having him. I don’t know how I would cope if your mock comes true.
Does Zunino going to Pitt mean they’ve given up on Tony Sanchez being their catcher of the future? I know at 8 taking the best player available makes a lot of sense but still.
Why would Washington take a close-to-the-majors 3B when they have Zimmerman locked down for 5 more years? Rendon already has to move…can Shaffer play elsewhere also?
If they deem a 3rd basemen to be the best player available, then they should take him regardless of need. All teams should follow the best player available approach to drafting.
Though signability is also a factor. Need, however, should not be a factor.
i disagree with this. maybe if its a slam dunk guy who is head and shoulders ahead of the rest available…. but lets say the rockies highest rated guy is a SS and their 2nd highest is a P, or really, any other position. why would they draft the SS?
Because they believe the SS is going to be a better player
so they’ll move tulo off the position then? If you have a young established star signed long term at a specific position, i dont see why youd draft that position unless hes way ahead of the next best guy on your board.
You sign the better player because a lot can happen between drafting someone and when they get to the majors.
Keep in mind that the vast majority of players don’t get into the majors for like four years. If the best player available is a shortstop, then the Rockies should take him because in four year Tulo might not be fit to play short anymore.
Systems don’t really take the best available player. It happens more often than not, for sure, but it means something different to each organization’s philosophy and developmental strength. You might say that you draft for maximizing a value per pick.
It’s clear that there is preferential treatment throughout. Most notably, between pitchers and hitters, sometimes a guy get’s drafted cause he might shoot through the system quickly, and organizations do stockpile players to fill voids or create a surplus.
Also, you are permitted to “trade” players. That is, you exchange a player from your team, with a player from another team. In general, the better the player you have to trade, the better the player you will get in return.
If the Mariners take another pitcher – again failing to address their team’s laughable pool of offensive talent – are the fans entitled to boycott the team?
No.
Mariners are 27th in the MLB in attendance, so the fans are pretty much in a boycott mode *right now*.
What if we draft a pitcher, then trade him like we did with Pineda? Setting aside the fact that we don’t entirely know how that trade will turn out, we still ended up with a bat.
The Mariners are 10th out of 30 teams in scoring.
Stroman and Stratton and Smoral, OH MY!
Could Gallo really fall out of the first round?
Giolito falling a long way here
As M’s fan I like the Correa pick or Buxton second and the M’s offensive woes are troubling but there is hope since their run differential this year is -1 so far and last year was -119 at end of year….and M’s lead ML in home runs at “away” ballparks with 39. That is an incredible stat and one which shows promise for Smoak and rest of team…Go M’s
I have a feeling the Royals are going to go with a college arm instead.
No way the Red Sox take 2 pitchers in the first round.
Even with their extra picks, do you see the Jays having money to sign both McCullers and Giolito?
Marc, isn’t taking both McCullers and Giolito impossible for the Jays from a draft-cap perspective? Also, isn’t taking a guy like Giolito in the first with a pick that won’t be returned to them (because its already a compensatory pick) tremendously risky?
I really like Buxton but does he have the potential to be an Aaron Hicks 2.0? Or is he more polished then Hicks was?
Everything I have read says he is extremely UNpolished. I think that he is very high upside (like Hicks) but may not pan out (like Hicks).
I laughed at this:
3. Seattle Mariners: Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico HS
because my first thought was, “they only have one High School in Puerto Rico?”
Took me a second, haha.
Should have read: Puerto Rico Baseball Academy.
The Puerto Rico Baseball Academy and High School (PRBAHS) is a non-profit
organization combining academics and sports programs into one curriculum.