Archive for September, 2012

The Strasburg Shutdown and What We Don’t Know

On Friday night, Stephen Strasburg took the mound in Nationals Park for the last time in 2012. Since I live about six hours from DC and I hadn’t seen him pitch in person yet, I figured I shouldn’t pass up on the opportunity to see him for myself, so I made the drive up on Friday afternoon. As you’ve undoubtedly heard, Strasburg wasn’t particularly sharp on Friday, getting removed after throwing just three innings, and so the Nationals decided that Friday was his final start of the year, moving his shutdown up one start and ending his season at 159 1/3 innings.

It’s obviously a rather controversial decision, and I’ve advocated for the position of more aggressive usage, skipping starts and manipulating the off days to try and make him available for the postseason. Watching him struggle in his final start didn’t disuade me from believing in the merits of that kind of approach, and I do think that perhaps there were alternative ways of handling his workload that might have allowed him for pitch deeper into the season. However, the unavoidable reality of this situation is that everyone is dealing with a great quantity of unknown variables, and for any of us to say that one decision is distinctly better or worse than another is probably an on overestimation of our own knowledge.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/10/12


Bubba Starling’s Lengthy Swing

Last week, a number of chat questions about Kansas City Royals Bubba Starling earned me comparisons to ESPN’s Skip Bayless for statements perceived as outlandish. Yes, Starling was a top-5 overall pick in one of the deepest drafts in recent memory. Yes, he was a two sport athlete with the assumed ceiling of not only a big leaguer, but National Football League quarterback as well. And to complete the trifecta. the young centerfielder was drafted by his hometown team and grew up only a half hour outside of Kansas City. There’s a movie script here. Damn me for ruining the happy ending.

Video after the jump

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Daily Notes, With SCOUT Leaders of the Intl. League

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A International League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A International League
Regarding What Is SCOUT, First of All
SCOUT is a (likely absurd, admittedly unnecessary) metric designed by the author to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous.

The Offensive Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The offensive version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average — is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent metrics (home-run, walk, and strikeout rates), all regressed duly*, as the inputs.

*By the method outlined here.

The Pitching Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The pitching version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention — is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes — to compare, for example, the performance of Detroit minor leaguer Adam Wilk (who posted a 21.5% K and 4.7% BB in 149.2 IP) to Pittsburgh’s Phil Irwin (31.5% K and 7.9% BB in 21.0 IP).

Regarding the International League, Its Regular Season
The International League’s regular season ended on September 3rd, it appears. As such, all following numbers are final for 2012.

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Is Rasmus Worth An Extension?

The Blue Jays acquisition of Colby Rasmus last season was considered a steal by many. Though the team surrendered five players in companion deals with the White Sox and Cardinals, Alex Anthopolous brought in a young, cost-controlled centerfielder for three relievers, a starter that was never really meant for them in the first place, and Mark Teahen’s contract. Rasmus was worth the risk as a change-of-scenery candidate, as he had proven himself productive in spite of well-publicized spats with his manager.

However, since joining the Jays last summer, Rasmus has failed to live up to the production standards he set with the Cardinals, and he has realistically been one of the least productive players in that span. Over the last two calendar years, Rasmus has the 13th-lowest wOBA, 14th-lowest wRC+, and 18th-lowest WAR out of the 115 qualified players.

Which is why the Blue Jays supposed focus on negotiating a contract extension isn’t immediately regarded as a given, an obvious move for a team taking important steps towards winning baseball’s toughest division. The Jays have been fiscally responsible in the Anthopolous era and have locked up a number of core players recently. Richard Griffin is reporting that Rasmus is on deck in this regard, and it seems that many within the organization value his contributions. It’s just tough to determine what those contributions are, as Rasmus hasn’t hit well, hasn’t fielded well, and with four years of service time under his belt at the end of this season, he isn’t likely to come cheap anymore.

Keeping Rasmus around for another couple of seasons is a decision with some merit, for sure, but the Jays need to be careful here. Rasmus hasn’t shown any true sign of turning the corner or improving his productivity, and he simply isn’t the same player that topped 4 WAR with the 2010 Cardinals.

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Effectively Wild Episode 38: The Greatness of Yadier Molina and the Not-So-Greatness of Omar Vizquel

Ben and Sam discuss Yadier Molina’s career year, catcher defense, and catcher aging, then talk about Omar Vizquel and the point at which clubhouse chemistry can’t cancel out poor on-field production.


Daily Notes, Featuring a Not Unimportant Game in LA

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Detroit at Los Angeles AL, 15:35 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Detroit at Los Angeles AL, 15:35 ET
Regarding This Game What’s Notable About It
A thing that’s notable about this game between the Tigers and Angels is how it’s not unimportant so far as the postseason fate of each of the named teams is concerned.

Regarding the Tigers, Their Playoff Odds
According to Cool Standings, Detroit currently has a 32.4% chance of making the playoffs: a 29.3% probability of winning the AL central and 3.1% one of qualifying for the wild-card game.

Regarding the Angels, Their Playoff Odds
According to the same helpful internet source cited above, Los Angeles’s playoff odds are currently at 36.3%, including a 2.2% chance of winning the AL West and 34.1% one of qualifying for the wild-card game.

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Daily Notes, Featuring an Executive Decision

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Texas at Tampa Bay, 19:10 ET
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Texas at Tampa Bay, 19:10 ET
Regarding What’s Necessary, Sometimes
Sometimes a thing that’s necessary is what’s commonly referred to as an “executive decision.”

Regarding an “Executive Decision,” When It’s Necessary
An executive decision is necessary if someone’s drowning, probably, in a pool. Someone needs to be like, “Hey, let’s save that person.”

Regarding an “Executive Decision,” When Else It’s Necessary
Another time an executive decision is necessary is also if someone’s drowning in a secluded and beautiful private lake — like in Maine, or something. An independent-minded sort, one whose character has been commended from an early age, must announce, “Despite the dangers to our own, individual persons, we are bound by a moral imperative to rescue this imperiled swimmer from his own grievous and watery grave.”

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FanGraphs Audio: Fantasy Friday with Eno Sarris

Episode 238
RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris is the guest on this Fantasy Friday edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Discussed:
• Forgetting to activate a player, the sorrow and pity of such an oversight.
• Owners who bend league rules, how we ought to regard them.
• Young and recently recalled pitchers — ones like Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, and Andrew Werner.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 43 min. play time.)

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On What Happened to Brandon McCarthy

Wednesday, we all thought at the time, was the worst day. Wednesday, during a start against the Angels, Brandon McCarthy was hit in the head by a line-drive comebacker. Though McCarthy managed to turn his head away before impact, all that did was spare his face; a line drive still struck him in the skull, and McCarthy went down to the ground, hitting his head. It’s just a nightmarish sight every time that this happens, and McCarthy, of course, was removed from the game. But he walked off under his own power, and immediate reports were positive. It sounded like McCarthy had avoided serious injury.

Thursday was the actual worst day, for the public. Thursday, we all found out that, Wednesday night, McCarthy had undergone two hours of brain surgery. The terms were chilling: epidural hemorrhage, skull fracture, brain contusion. Really, “brain surgery” was sufficient. Doctors needed to go through McCarthy’s skull to relieve pressure on his brain, pressure that could’ve killed him if left untreated long enough. Wednesday brought the incident, but Thursday brought the grisly details.

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