It is easy to forget that Mat Latos is still just 24-years-old. It is also easy, apparently, to overlook how impressive he has been since the second half of June.

Latos started off his tenure in Cincinnati pretty miserably, with a 5.20 ERA in 14 starts. He was getting hit rather hard, and his home run rate escalated. He allowed 16 homers in less than a half season’s worth of starts. The jump was expected, since moving from homer-depressing Petco Park to Great American Ballpark would likely cause any pitcher to give up more home runs. But I imagine there were at least a few people who wondered if Latos was simply a Petco creation.
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I was watching the Mariners play the Angels Tuesday night, and unlike the majority of Mariners games, this was one I was glad I took the time to see. As my Mariners interests are concerned, I got to see Justin Smoak drill a couple dingers, continuing what’s been for him a rather torrid September. As my general baseball interests are concerned, I got to see the Mariners strike out 20 times, or I got to see Angels pitchers strike out Mariners hitters 20 times, tying the all-time nine-inning record. A team has recorded 20 strikeouts in a nine-inning game only four times, ever. The Mariners have done it twice. From the hitting side, not from the good, dominant side.

There are three images, though, not two, that are sticking with me. There’s the image of a generic Mariners hitter striking out, there’s the image of Justin Smoak hitting a ball on a line, and there’s the image of Erick Aybar taking Erasmo Ramirez deep to right field. Aybar launched what I thought to be a pretty remarkable solo home run, and you can watch the video highlight right here. It’s not yet embeddable, because if this recent video clip were embeddable Major League Baseball would surely stand to lose millions of dollars.

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No pitcher’s starts leave me with more questions than Zack Greinke’s. Everybody knows he can be great — see his dominant 2009, the second half of 2011 — but he doesn’t always live up to the hype or the peripherals — 2010, the first half of 2011.

When he’s on, he’s nearly impossible to hit; when he’s off, it’s nearly impossible to tell why. Consider his 2011:

May/June: 62.1 IP, 80 K, 12 BB, 8 HR, 66 H, 5.63 ERA, 2.80 FIP
Rest of season: 109.1 IP, 121 K, 33 BB, 11 HR, 95 H, 2.80 ERA, 3.08 FIP

Tuesday night’s start against the Seattle Mariners stuffed all the bewilderment of Zack Greinke into one start — Greinke set a modern day record, becoming the first starter ever to strike out 13 batters in a five-inning start. But in those five innings, the Mariners still managed two walks and seven hits including a home run. It was one of the game’s most dominating starts and yet nine of 24 Mariners reached base — a .375 OBP! — and four managed extra base hits.

Again, we are left with more questions than answers.

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Likely waiting tastefully until the Talk Like a Pirate Day celebrations were in the rear view mirror, longtime Pittsburgh (and short-time Seattle and Atlanta) shortstop Jack Wilson, who was released by Atlanta back in August, is reportedly going to retire after the season. The first thing I think of when I think of Jack Wilson is how I used to always get him mixed up with former teammate catcher/outfielder/first baseman Craig Wilson. Remember when the “Wilson Brothers” and Jason Bay were part of a future Pirates contender? Good thing those miserable days are over. HOKA HEY.

Anyway, Jack Wilson’s reputation was based almost completely on the very good glove he displayed in his prime. Yeah, there was that 2004 season in which he hit .308/.335/.459 (103 wRC+), made the All-Star Game, and people talked about it being a “breakout” year for him. Actually — and I can’t believe this happened to a guy who walked in under four percent of his plate appearances — it looks like that was probably mostly random variation. That was Wilson’s only major-league season with above-average offense, and his career line is .265/.306/.366 (74 WRC+). Despite this, his glove made him a valuable player in his prime, and that was what one should really focus on when thinking of his career.

However, even a glove-first shortstop will manage some big hits over 5,339 plate appearances. So, in honor of his impending retirement, let’s use the story stat, Win Probability Added (WPA), to look at three of Jack Wilson’s biggest hits in terms of their in-game impact.

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I’m not exactly sure how Major League Baseball players feel about fame, but you can probably guess what they think about infamy. You want to leave your mark because of your greatness, not because of some asterisk or fluke or memorable gaffe.

Cliff Lee is a fine pitcher. Fine like diamonds, not like, say, a Subaru Justy. He’s been among the elite starting pitchers going on five straight seasons. And he’s is making history this season. But probably not the way he wants to.

I doubt that the recording of the win and reliance on ERA were the genesis of sabermetrics. But a lot of what exists here — both in the statistic and narrative format — is because of a disdain for traditional measures of what supposedly makes a pitcher good.

But allow me to depart from that for a moment, because Lee is accomplishing something that’s rarely seen: He’s been a dominant pitcher without earning many wins this year. It’s not that I like the win any more than anyone else, I just like the significance of the anomaly that we’re seeing.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Three Best September Call-Ups So Far: Pitchers
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Three Best September Call-Ups So Far: Pitchers
Regarding the People, What They Were Wondering Yesterday
Unless the author is gravely mistaken, what the people were wondering about yesterday is which — of the hitters among this September’s call-ups, that is — is which among them had performed mostly ably so far this month.

Regarding the People, What They’re Likely Wondering Today
Given the people’s concerns on Tuesday, it stands to follow that today (Wednesday) what the people are wondering is which of the pitchers among this September’s call-ups has performed mostly ably so far.

Regarding the People, What They Can Find Below
Among the many splendors that are to be found below, one of them is a brief list of the best performances by pitchers who’ve been promoted this Septmeber.

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Ben and Sam discuss what we can learn from Travis Snider’s revelations about his relationships with his former manager and hitting coach, then talk about whether they would bring Melky Cabrera back for the NLCS.

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I was previewing the Angels and Mariners series that began on Tuesday, kicking off the final nine games of the season for both teams, when I noticed how well the Angels ranked in my metrics. That the Angels are good is no surprise, but the magnitude to which they had improved since they last played the Mariners at the beginning of September caught my notice.

Since that last preview, the Angels went 15-7 with a massive 104-58 run differential. But where did has the dominance burst forth? Over those 22 games, the offense posted a .734 OPS which is only three points above the American League average. On the pitching side, the staff has a 21.7% strikeout rate, a 6.4% walk rate and 3.4% home run rate compared to league averages of 19.4%, 8.2% and 2.8%. That’s an above average line, but not an outright dominant one.

Lacking a breakout in either the bats or arms, it really highlights how well the defense has played. Read the rest of this entry »