Ben and Sam talk about how we talk about the AL MVP debate, then discuss Mike Trout’s ability to adjust from at-bat to at-bat.
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Episode 245
Dayn Perry, contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and author of two books (one of them serviceable), makes his weekly appearance on FanGraphs Audio and runs the gamut of taste.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 57 min. play time.)
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Few things get baseball fans more excited than the opportunity to begin taking an extraordinary young talent for granted, so baseball circles are abuzz right now with talk of the Orioles’ promotion of top prospect Dylan Bundy. It didn’t at any point appear as if Bundy would see the majors in 2012, so this news comes as a surprise, but few were also counting on the Orioles to remain in the race for this long, and now the circumstances are what the circumstances are. Suddenly, Bundy makes some good sense.
To hear the Orioles tell it, they weren’t going to call Bundy up, then Tuesday night they played the Mariners for seventy innings, so they decided to call Bundy up. It might seem short-sighted to you for the Orioles to change their plans for a top prospect because a September game went longer than expected, but for one thing, the Orioles kind of need to be short-sighted at the moment, and for another, how likely is this to stunt Bundy’s development, really? It doesn’t matter so much that the Orioles changed their plans if the difference for Dylan Bundy is small or inconsequential.
I’ve begun working on the off-season FanGraphs Top 15 prospect lists. While researching for the series I took in the Northwest League championship finals between the Vancouver Canadians (Toronto Blue Jays) and the Boise Hawks (Chicago Cubs) in early September. Both teams are loaded with B- and C-level prospects so it was a fun series to watchh.
I’ll have observations on some Boise players in the next day or two.
Taylor Cole, RHP: A 2011 draft pick, Cole repeated the Northwest League in ’12 after missing two years of development for a Mormon mission. Prior to college and his time off, Cole – who recently turned 23 – was a highly-regarded amateur who could dial his heater up to 94-95 mph. It nows sits 87-90 mph. This was probably his worst start of the year after posting a 0.81 ERA in 12 games (11 starts). He allowed just six runs in 66.1 innings during the regular season but gave up seven in this game. His shoulder was flying open, causing his pitches to elevate and carry off the plate. Cole did show a nice, compact delivery and he stayed tall over the rubber. His struggles with his fastball command prevented him from setting up his best pitch – a changeup that shows a potential future grade of 60-70. His curveball – which is usually above-average – was not good early on but improved a bit as the game progressed and could become league average. With improved fastball command I can see the potential for a back-end starter or middle reliever at the big league level.
Wei-Yin Chen gave up two runs in just 5.1 innings Tuesday against the Mariners. The next 12.2 innings all belonged to the Baltimore bullpen. Their response? Six hits, four walks, 16 strikeouts and zero runs, with all but one of those 12.2 innings requiring a shutout just to keep the game going.
As a result, Steve Johnson, Darren O’Day, Tommy Hunter, Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, Jim Johnson and Brian Matusz combined for a massive 1.170 WPA on the game. The Orioles bullpen now owns a 12.51 WPA for the whole season, with yesterday’s performance enough to push them over the 1984 Tigers for the highest season bullpen WPA since our reports carry the data (back to 1974). Judging by the historical data, this Orioles bullpen has been the most influential in recent major league history.
Mike Trout? Miguel Cabrera? Please. Sure, numbers and metrics matter (at least the ones I selectively use to make my case depending on what I choose to argue beforehand). But if want a player who has actually made the difference in his team’s (probably) successful playoff run, there is only one choice for the 2012 American League’s Most Valuable Player: Kevin Youkilis.
Okay, I’ll admit it: the title and first paragraph are just meant to grab attention. I do not really think that Youkilis should be the 2012 AL MVP. However, Youkilis has had a big impact on the White Sox since being coming over from Boston at the end of June. If the current standings hold (White Sox three games ahead of the Tigers), one could reasonably argue that Youkilis has been the difference the American League Central championship this year.
It’s that time of year again – with just a few weeks left in the season, baseball writers are turning their focus to the postseason awards, and as usual, the MVP races are the ones that are going to get the most attention. In the NL, the conversation is mostly about finding ways to make sure that Ryan Braun doesn’t win his second straight trophy, with Buster Posey stepping up to provide BBWAA members the out that they so desperately want. Over in the AL, there hasn’t been as much discussion for most of the summer, as Mike Trout has been running laps around the rest of the contenders, making it hard to put together any kind of realistic argument for a non-Trout candidate.
However, Miguel Cabrera is having a monstrous September, hitting .373/.426/.797 over the last couple of weeks, and now that he’s taken the lead in both batting average and runs batted, the talk of a potential “triple crown” has breathed life into his candidacy. Jon Morosi went so far as to call the decision to give Cabrera the award “a formality” and say that it’s “obvious” that Cabrera is the right choice. Instead of engaging in a hyperbole-off, however, let’s actually investigate the actual differences between them this season and see whether the case for Cabrera actually stands up to logic and reason.
When the San Diego Padres extended both Huston Street and Carlos Quentin this summer, they effectively signaled an intent to contend in the NL West in the near future. The organization felt that future was imminent enough to forego acquiring additional young talent via the trade market and instead committed valuable resources to injury-prone (though productive) assets who play non-premium positions.
All this from a team who owned a 34-53 record at the All-Star Break this season. Needless to say, the moves ruffled a few feathers and caused some to question whether the organization was truly intent on building a World Series contender or simply staving off an inevitable attendance decrease that normally accompanies mid-season fire sales.
If the Padres’ recent performance proves to be a believable measuring stick for its future, though, the front office in San Diego understood something that the vast majority of baseball fans did not. Their team was ready to start winning ballgames much earlier than expected.
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. SCOUT Leaderboards for Both the Low-A Leagues
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
SCOUT Leaderboards for Both the Low-A Leagues
Regarding What This Is, First of All
What follows are the SCOUT Leaderboards for both the Low-A Leagues (the New York-Penn and Northwest ones, that is) combined.
Regarding a “SCOUT Leaderboard,” What That Is
SCOUT is metric designed to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous. A high SCOUT+ is good for a hitter; a low SCOUT- is good for a pitcher.
More on SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
SCOUT uses regressed, defense-independent inputs to calculate FIP-like stats for both pitchers and hitters. Click here to learn more about it.
Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is, because both SCOUT+ and SCOUT- are presented relative to league, it allows one to compare the relative performances of players across multiple leagues — like in what follows, for example.
Regarding These Numbers
All the following numbers are final for 2012.
