Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Three Moves That Just Happened, Mostly
2. GIF: Cory Burns’s Actual Real Changeup
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Mexican Pacific League

Three Moves That Just Happened, Mostly
Here are three moves that happened yesterday (Wednesday), so far as the author can tell.

Pittsburgh Acquires Clint Robinson in Trade
Clint Robinson will turn 28 before the 2013 season begins and has slashed .308/.382/.520 over 2,875 minor-league plate appearances. Despite this — and certainly owing to the presence of other first-baseman Eric Hosmer — he received only four plate appearances total from Kansas City, ever. On Wednesday, he was traded to Pittsburgh.

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A couple of minor transactions have floated by mostly un-noticed on the wires recently, and probably for good reason. Mickey Storey was claimed by the Yankees from the Astros, and Cory Burns was traded to the Rangers from the Padres for a player to be named someday. Neither of these relievers cost much, nor will they end up closing for their new teams. They’re mostly just flotsam pieces of spaghetti to fling at the wall. There’s a link between these two relievers, and it’s a thread that will run through most fungible, cheaply acquired players in baseball — neither reliever has a fastball.

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Ben and Sam break down the Braves’ signing of B.J. Upton and discuss the discrepancy between different appraisals of his value.

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For several months, now, the Atlanta Braves have looked like a fitting future home for B.J. Upton. Once Upton officially became a free agent, the Braves made no secret of their interest, and in fact nearly two weeks ago it was suggested to me that I begin writing about Upton signing with Atlanta. That turned out to be not so much a false alarm as a hasty one — Upton didn’t sign then, and other teams sniffed around, but Upton has signed now, with the Braves for five years and just over $75 million. The predictable match is indeed the match that we observe, as Upton has landed his big-money contract, and as the Braves have landed their top offseason priority.

With the Braves, Upton basically replaces Michael Bourn in center field. The Braves aren’t done, as they still have a hole on one side of Upton (assuming Martin Prado shifts to third), but that’ll be addressed in time, and that also isn’t what’s relevant today. B.J. Upton is 28 years old, with a new employer that just made a substantial long-term commitment, and he should be discussed.

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According to reports out of Kansas City and Boston, the Royals have discussed trading outfield prospect Wil Myers to the Red Sox and Rays in deals that would net them Jon Lester or James Shields respectively. These discussions are the fruit of the Royals desire to upgrade a rotation that posted an ERA- of 122 as a group last year, the fourth worst mark of any club in baseball. Given how bad their rotation was, fixing it has become priority No. 1 for Dayton Moore this winter.

In general, replacing your worst players is a pretty sound off-season strategy. If one part of your roster is filled with replacement level scrubs, you can often get the most bang for your buck by replacing them with actual Major Leaguers. In fact, those moves are often the easiest upgrades to make, since there are more readily available +1 to +2 win players than there are +3 to +4 win players, so upgrading a black hole can be a more efficient way to improve the team than trying to upgrade over a decent-but-flawed placeholder.

So, from that perspective, the Royals plan to upgrade their rotation was a sound one. It’s just that the way they’re going about making these upgrades is a little strange, and nothing is stranger than the idea of trading away Myers simply because the team wants better pitchers. Because, without Myers, the team would then need a better outfielder, and they very well may not be any better off than they were before the trade.

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There’s a fun game I’ve enjoyed playing, called Spot The Half-Decent Astro. It’s challenging, because there haven’t been very many of them, and because I could never get anyone else to play too. Did you know that the 2012 Astros’ team leader in home runs was Justin Maxwell? Do you know anything about Justin Maxwell, aside from his name and that fact? The Astros have been dreadful for a reason — they haven’t had very many good players. One of their few good players has been reliever Wilton Lopez. Now Wilton Lopez isn’t an Astro anymore.

Basically. The Astros and Phillies have unofficially swung a trade, sending Lopez to Philadelphia, and sending a prospect or two or more to Houston. Without knowing anything about the prospect(s), it’s a sensible trade for Houston, because what they don’t need right now are good relievers. And it’s a sensible trade for Philadelphia, because it makes them better now and the Phillies are all about the now.

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[Author’s note added November 17: Jack Moore pointed out today that Broxton seems to have added a cutter late in the season, which may account for his improved performance with the Reds. I wish I had noticed this and taken it into account. It does change things at least a bit in favor of the deal. As Jack notes, still just 82 pitches at the end of the year, so random variation and the element of surprise may have played a part. Thus, I still think the overall thrust of this piece is something I still stand by.]

As Jeff Sullivan discussed on Monday, the Cincinnati Reds’ then-potential contract with Jonathan Broxton had implications for Aroldis Chapman’s possible move to the rotation. Today, that potential was actualized, as the Reds reportedly re-signed Broxton for three years and $21 million dollars.

The contract is also said to include a limited no-trade clause, a $9 club option for 2016, a limited no-trade clause, and another clause that increases the guaranteed portion of the deal to $22 million and makes the option mutual. Whatever implications this might have for Chapman, it is worth considering Broxton’s own merits in relation to his salary and the Reds’ needs.

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Is Josh Johnson still an ace?

The 2012 season had some encouraging signs after shoulder injuries cut short potential Cy Young campaigns in 2010 and 2011. Johnson posted a 3.81 ERA and 3.40 FIP, but more importantly he took the mound 31 times, showing he at least has the ability to make it through an entire season without major issue.

But the results have to be considered unsatisfactory relative the the prior three seasons. In 458 innings from 2009 to 2011, Johnson managed a brilliant 2.64 ERA and 2.74 FIP. I watched one of Johnson’s more typical starts from 2012 — September 12th against Philadelphia (7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, 1 HR) — and I came away with two questions, the answers to which will determined if Johnson can return to his prior ace level.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Windy Footage of Hitter Chris Nowak
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Puerto Rican League

Assorted Headlines
Every Team Buying Players from Independent American Association
Six players from the independent American Association have been sold to major-league clubs over the last five days, reports the league’s official site. Right-handed reliever James Hoyt, who recently turned 26, is the latest to enter affiliated ball, signing a minor-league deal with the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday. Per Baseball Reference, Hoyt has posted a 104:46 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 78.1 innings with unaffiliated teams over the last two seasons. Hoyt was ranked ninth among all independent league prospects by Baseball America last month.

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