Ben and Sam answer selected listener emails in a pre-Thanksgiving episode.
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Earlier Tuesday, there was a rumor floating around Twitter that B.J. Upton had signed a long-term contract with the Phillies. That turned out to be fake, or alternatively sent to the present from the presently unknowable future. There was also a rumor floating around Twitter that Hiroki Kuroda had signed a short-term contract with the Yankees. That turned out to be real, as Kuroda has re-upped for a year and $15 million, with another near-million in incentives.
Last January, Kuroda signed with the Yankees for a year and $10 million. He pitched well, and after the season the Yankees extended to him one of those qualifying offers worth $13.3 million. Kuroda declined it, but there was some thought that he could accept it, suggesting that the terms weren’t far off from something he’d find agreeable. Indeed, the Yankees have re-signed Kuroda for the qualifying offer, and just a little more. Or a lot more, depending on how you feel about a couple million dollars.
You’re familiar with the term “contract year” because there exists a belief that some players perform better the season before they hit free agency. Playing for a new contract allegedly serves as a motivator. Obviously, pre-free-agency performance matters, and the most recent performance matters the most. A player should want to go into free agency on a high note. A player should really try to avoid going into free agency on a low note. For like a whole bunch of reasons actually.
One guy who’s going into free agency on a low note is Jose Valverde. Just one year ago — just one year ago! — Valverde converted all 49 of his save opportunities and ran a near-2 ERA. He blew his very first save opportunity of 2012. His 2012 season wasn’t a disaster, but it was in the playoffs, when he allowed nine runs in four games. Teams are now going to be understandably nervous about Jose Valverde’s future prospects. Another guy who’s going into free agency on a low note is Brandon McCarthy. Doctors recently had to cut into his head.
Episode 278
Prospect analyst Mike Newman considers, among other topics, the impact a deep minor-league system can have on an organization’s ability to acquire major-league talent — not unlike what happened in the recent trade that saw Toronto acquire Mark Buehrle, John Johnson, and Jose Reyes from Miami.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 53 min play time.)
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Lost in the improbable and rather infatuating season from R.A. Dickey and yet another commanding performance by Clayton Kershaw sits Gio Gonzalez and his measly 5.4 WAR season.
Gonzalez went 21-8 for the Washington Nationals with a 2.89 ERA, 2.82 FIP, and 25.2% strikeout rate and yet garnered only one first place vote in the Cy Young balloting. It’s not that Gonzalez so much deserved more attention from the Baseball Writers Association, but his season might have been as surprising as Dickey’s yet few seem to be talking about it outside of the Capital.
When Gonzalez came over from Oakland for Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, Tommy Milone, and Derek Norris, reactions were mixed. If you could boil all the sentiments down into a prognosticator sludge, the general consensus was probably that Oakland did well to get highly regarded A.J. Cole and ready to nearly-ready prospects for what was likely a middle of the rotation kind of arm. To be sure, some were much higher on Gonzalez, but there were just as many that expected him to underwhelm the senior circuit.
Robert Osuna burst onto the prospect scene in 2010, signing for a bonus of $1.5 million as a 16 year old out of Mexico. The 6’2, 230 pound right-hander already has a boxy, mature frame with very limited remaining projection, a rarity for a 17-year-old elite pitching prospect. Osuna’s prospect status is concentrated more on current abilities rather than projection.
I saw Osuna pitch in extended spring training and was impressed for a first look at a young arm. He sat 90-92 from the windup, losing a few ticks in the stretch and his heater lacked overall life. His changeup flashed plus potential at 77-79 mph and he really had a good feel for the pitch with late depth and great deception. Along with the lack of projection and only an average fastball, Osuna also had trouble spinning a slider, lacking bite on his breaking ball at 80-82 mph and showing only average potential. His simple delivery and arm action were both good, but Osuna had a wrist cock early in his arm stroke that bothered me a bit.
Osuna put up some dominating performances in the Northwest League and after seeing him recently in instructs, he appears to have taken a big step forward. In the three-inning outing, his fastball sat 89-93 mph but his command was improved, only missing low in the zone and he added and subtracted from the pitch, most often throwing a cut fastball with plus action. Osuna’s changeup was even better, flashing 65 potential (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with late darting action rather than just turning over.
I’m sure it doesn’t feel this way, but I’d really like to see the Royals become a good baseball team. I’d like to see Dayton Moore make some good moves, build around the young core that he has helped develop, and turn the Royals back into a legitimate contender. I’d like to write about how Moore has learned from his past mistakes, and is applying those lessons to make better decisions about what kinds of players he should spend money on. Mostly, I’d just like to be able to say something nice about a Dayton Moore transaction so that we can debunk the idea that FanGraphs has something personal against him or the Royals organization.
But, as much as I’d like to be able to write a post talking about a good Dayton Moore transaction, he has to make one first. And, with news of the Royals agreeing to give Jeremy Guthrie a three year contract, today is not the day that I get to write something positive about a Dayton Moore transaction.
Let’s just start with Guthrie. He turns 34 in April and is one of the more durable pitchers in the league, having thrown 175 innings in six consecutive years. He has a well established skillset as a strike-throwing pitch-to-contact innings eater. There’s nothing too mysterious here. Guthrie is one of the easier pitchers in baseball to break down.
No.
The Marlins didn’t kill publicly-financed ballparks. Or arenas. Or stadiums. Not in Florida. Not anywhere. Sure, the Marlins’ fire-sale trade with the Blue Jays — which came less than a year after the opening of the publicly-financed Marlins Ballpark — won’t help the cause of those seeking public monies to build new sports facilities. But teams will continue to seek public financing and municipalities will continue to say yes.
Why?
Because the Marlins’ swindling of the Miami-Dade taxpayers is nothing new. It’s simply the latest example of public officials falling prey to threats that a city’s team will leave and fancy reports prepared by team consultants that say a new ballpark will bring jobs, tax revenue and economic development — despite study after study that shows those claims hardly ever are true.
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League
3. Largely Unhelpful Videos: Free Agent Infielder Darwin Perez
Assorted Headlines
Frazier Likely to Become Third-Base Starter for Cincinnati in 2013
Scott Rolen‘s status for the 2013 season is still unclear, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. Todd Frazier’s is less so, it seems. “Right now,” Reds general manager Walt Jocketty appears to have declared somewhere in the vicinity of Sheldon, “Frazier would be penciled in as our third baseman next year.” Frazier posted a 120 wRC+ (.316 BABIP) and 2.8 WAR in 465 plate appearances this past season.
