2013 Trade Deadline Chat Extravaganza
12:01 |
: Welcome to the FanGraphs Trade Deadline Chat Extravaganza. I’ll be here from 12-1, followed by Jeff Sullivan, then Eno Sarris, then Carson Cistulli will take you to the trade deadline at 4:00. I’ll come back at 4:00 and hang out for a bit to wrap up all the straggler deals that wander in after the deadline.
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12:02 |
: Obviously, we’ll be mostly focused on trade reaction/speculations today, but if nothing happens, we’ll talk about other stuff too. This isn’t going to be a typical Q&A, and we’ll try to keep it more real time then playing catch up on a backloaded queue, but I’d guess we’ll sneak in some regular questions here and there as well.
|
12:05 |
Yesterday on Twitter someone (I think Bowden) mentioned that the Cardinals should pursue Chris Owings with DD blocking his way at the MLB level. If they could make this happen at the deadline without giving up Taveras, Martininez, or Wacha do you think it improves the team (significantly) in the short term and long term? Also, excluding those 3, what do you think it would take? Maybe a package of Joe Kelly and Kolten Wong for Owings and something? P.S. Your piece on Lee yesterday was excellent. |
12:05 |
: I wouldn’t give up Kolton Wong for Chris Owings straight up. Terrible plate discipline, PCL power.
|
12:05 |
Do the teams realise the deadline is today? |
12:06 |
: They also realize that you can make trades in August, especially with the kinds of role players that are available.
|
12:06 |
With the Orioles showing interest in Bud Norris, should they be concerned about his K rate being down this year and a HR/FB% that is half of his career average? |
12:06 |
: Yep. I wrote about why he wasn’t a very good pitcher for ESPN/FG+ over the weekend.
|
12:07 |
Brock Holt? Really? Is that more of a sign of the Red Sox getting ready to trade for Young or the fact that they don’t believe Bogaerts/Middlebrooks can handle the load? Or both? |
12:07 |
: No harm in hedging your bets until you know if you’re going to make another trade.
|
12:07 |
thoughts on michael young to the red sox? |
12:07 |
: I’m not sure he actually helps them much.
|
12:07 |
So are you jealous that Dan Szym is over at the ESPN deadline chat? |
12:08 |
: He should be jealous of us.
|
12:08 |
Is there a logic to the Mets not trading Bobby Parnell in the hope that his trade value will increase after spending more time being a “proven closer”. |
12:08 |
: Not really, no.
|
12:08 |
If the Cardinals don’t trade for a SS, they should give Ryan Jackson a shot at it, right? |
12:08 |
: Not sure he’s that much better than Kozma.
|
12:09 |
The obvious one. Winners and losers in the Peavy deal? As a Red Sox fan I feel like we got a steal, but how do the Tigers and White Sox feel. |
12:09 |
: Love for Red Sox, like for Tigers, don’t really like for White Sox. They’re basically betting big on Avisail Garcia, but from here, he looks like a tools guy who hasn’t figured out how to hit yet.
|
12:09 |
Out of Ollie Perez, Wilhelmsen, Gregg, Cishek, Perkins, Delabar, Holland, Gregerson, who do you think gets moved? |
12:10 |
: Gregg, Gregerson.
|
12:10 |
Now that MLB has given the names of players it plans to suspend to the MLBPA, do the teams also now know who will/won’t be available for the rest of the season? |
12:10 |
: It seems like it, yes.
|
12:10 |
Over/under 2.5 trades during your hour? |
12:10 |
: Way under. I don’t know that we’re actually going to see many deals today, honestly.
|
12:11 |
What can the Rays hope to land with a Matt Joyce/Roberto Hernandez type pachage? |
12:11 |
: Why would they trade Matt Joyce?
|
12:11 |
Thoughts on Utley’s possible 2/26 extension? |
12:12 |
: A good value for Philadelphia if they can get it, but they really should be trying to rebuild.
|
12:12 |
Any opinion on the comparative quality of the Peavy/Garza deals? Am I wrong to think the Cubs gave less and received more? |
12:12 |
: Nope, that’s how i see it too. Texas would have been much better off with Peavy.
|
12:12 |
Thoughts on a potential Morse deal? |
12:13 |
: Don’t think it’s happening. If they were going to trade Morse, they wouldn’t have DFA’d Bay.
|
12:14 |
Owings is 21. He will learn to take more walks. It’s far more difficult to learn to hit. He’s been raking for 2 years. He’s way outhitting a lot of older and more seasoned hitters in the PCL. This is not PCL mirage we’re seeing w/him. His D has also come a long way. The bias against young players with low BB rates has gone way too far. |
12:14 |
: Call me when he hits at sea level.
|
12:14 |
Who is the guy you think really should be traded today but will not be? |
12:14 |
: Glen Perkins.
|
12:15 |
Nate Schierholtz is where tomorrow? |
12:15 |
: Pittsburgh.
|
12:15 |
What could the Nationals get for Soriano, hypothetically |
12:15 |
: Contract relief.
|
12:15 |
Did the Padres miss out on dealing Headley last year? |
12:15 |
: Yep.
|
12:15 |
Do you think Biogenesis suspensions will be over in time for the playoffs? |
12:15 |
: Seems like the plan is to get them in right around the 50 game mark, so that they’ll carry through end of regular season.
|
12:16 |
I honestly don’t get why the Phillies aren’t trying to rebuild. That core just is so unlikely to rebound in a meaningful enough way, and they have pieces that would have enough value on the trade market (particularly Lee and Utley) to really do a pretty quick turnaround. Is this just the fact that Amaro is a GM who seems to constantly be in win now mode, even if the evidence says he shouldn’t be? |
12:16 |
: In some ways, they can’t totally rebuild because of the Howard/Hamels contracts. Tearing it down isn’t really possible. But they should be going more towards youth than they are.
|
12:17 |
Are three-way deals generally more “even” than the 2 way variety? I can’t think of a recent 3 way deal that’s been significantly worse for one team than the others. |
12:17 |
: A’s get John Jaso, Nationals get three interesting prospects, Mariners get jack crap.
|
12:18 |
Do the Mariners move anyone today? If so, who? |
12:18 |
: Doubt it.
|
12:18 |
Do you get the interest in Morneau? I just don’t think he’s good anymore |
12:18 |
: He’s been a replacement level player since 2011, covering 1,250 PAs. It’s not the concussion anymore.
|
12:18 |
Is it worth making a qualifying offer to Phil Hughes or should the Yankees deal him for whatever they can get? |
12:18 |
: That would be crazy pants.
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12:19 |
Are Royals making a mistake if they neither buy nor sell? |
12:19 |
: They’re making a mistake by not selling. Buying would be hilariously bad.
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12:20 |
In a Twitter world, are we ever going to hear about a trade for the first time anymore, when we see a guy getting hugged by all his now-ex-teamates in the dugout during a live game? |
12:20 |
: Probably not. The days of a leak free transaction are almost completely behind us.
|
12:20 |
As a Tigers fan I really like the trade for Iglesias, do you think he can be an everyday player or is his bat that bad? (I don’t know much about him but I’ve seen enough of Avisail) |
12:20 |
: The bat is that bad. He’s Brendan Ryan 2.0.
|
12:21 |
Would you acquire Bud Norris for a package of “lesser prospects” if you were JACK Z? |
12:21 |
: No, because Bud Norris isn’t very good.
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12:22 |
You don’t think Iglesias would eventually be able to hit 270/330/350? Considering the offensive talent around him that would be plenty good enough. |
12:22 |
: No, I don’t think he can do that, and no, the offensive talent around him doesn’t make carrying a guy who can’t hit better.
|
12:22 |
Would Oakland be wise to deal Cespedes today? |
12:22 |
: No, they’re in first place.
|
12:22 |
Given that you don’t think a ton of Avisail Garcia, why don’t you love the deal for the Tigers? |
12:22 |
: I don’t think a ton of Jose Iglesias either.
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12:23 |
The Cardinals offered us Tavares, Carlos Martines, and Wong for Stanton. Should we do it? |
12:23 |
: You can do better.
|
12:24 |
Someone recently convinced me that the Red Sox should try to trade for Headley. Perfect buy-low situation, tons of upside, fills a need for this year, and would be perfect for Fenway. Thoughts? |
12:24 |
: Asking price has always been ridiculous
|
12:24 |
qualifying offer for josh Johnson? |
12:25 |
: Yep. Dan Haren got 1/13 last winter.
|
12:25 |
Why don’t you tweet out your ESPN insider pieces? I can obviously look for them myself on the ESPN site, but a tweet is a very helpful in that I don’t have to wonder if/when you’ve put up something new. |
12:25 |
: I don’t usually know when they’re going up.
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12:25 |
Does the iglesias trade make it any more likely that Boston sees Xander as a SS long term? |
12:25 |
: Yep, I think that’s exactly what this trade says.
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12:26 |
Seems like the last 2 trade deadlines have been pretty boring overall. What gives? |
12:26 |
: Second wild card has convinced bad teams to not sell. Trade deadline needs to be pushed back.
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12:28 |
I’d think .270/.330/.350 would be absolute ceiling for Iglesias. He could just as easily be .230/.260/.300. |
12:28 |
: Yep.
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12:28 |
Would a package of Farnsworth/Sean Rodriguez/Alex Colome net Gattis? |
12:28 |
: This the funniest suggestion of the day.
|
12:28 |
To be a legitimate contender, the Baltimore Orioles need an upgrade most at….. |
12:28 |
: SP, DH.
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12:29 |
So say Jhonny gets suspended with exactly 50 games remaining…would the Tigers leave him off the postseason roster? Would he even be eligible to play? |
12:29 |
: He’d be eligible, and my guess is they’d bring him back.
|
12:30 |
Qualifying offer for Morse? |
12:30 |
: That would be worse than giving it to Phil Hughes.
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12:30 |
Pirates don’t trade any of their top 5 prospects today or at all this season: True/False? |
12:30 |
: True.
|
12:31 |
If the Rangers would be willing to send Profar to Toronto for Encarnacion, would the the Blue Jays say no? |
12:31 |
: No, the Rangers would.
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12:31 |
Do you not think Iglesias can get his discipline up to get around a .330 OBP? Even batting around .240-.250? |
12:31 |
: Why would teams throw a .240 hitter with no power enough balls for him to get a .330 OBP?
|
12:32 |
Mariners stand pat. Bad idea, or worst idea? |
12:32 |
: It’s silly, but there’s also not a lot of reasons to think that this front office would trade for good players anyway. They value the wrong things.
|
12:33 |
I know you don’t like the Tigers getting Ig. But aren’t they better equiped if peralta gets suspended? And, I don’t know the UZR info. But how much defense does Ig bring to the table for them? |
12:33 |
: I didn’t say I don’t like it. I don’t think they gave up much, and it makes sense to get an SS replacement for Peralta. I just don’t think Iglesias is going to hit enough to be a good player.
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12:33 |
By the end of the day, Alex Rios will be playing for… |
12:34 |
: The White Sox. He’s a guy who can be an August trade piece if someone wants him.
|
12:34 |
If you were the White Sox, what would you have wanted for Peavy? |
12:34 |
: A little more polish.
|
12:34 |
Morosi says Mariners are in discussions with teams for Perez and Wilhelmsen. Who could possibly want Wilhelmsen right now? |
12:35 |
: Wilhelmsen is a good buy low. Arm is still terrific, just needs to figure out his command again.
|
12:35 |
“Why would teams throw a .240 hitter with no power enough balls for him to get a .330 OBP?” Good point…. But what about Elvis Andrus, for instance? |
12:35 |
: He’s not a .240 hitter.
|
12:36 |
Would you agree with wRC+ that Encarnacion is right now one of the 10 best hitters in baseball (considering only what he produces at the plate)? |
12:36 |
: He’s in the mix, yes.
|
12:36 |
What’s the most one-sided deal of the past decade? |
12:36 |
: Erik Bedard for Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, and stuff.
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12:37 |
Are Iglesias/Hechavarria types overrated in prospect circles? |
12:37 |
: Yeah, I think so.
|
12:37 |
Odds Ian Kennedy gets moved? |
12:37 |
: Seems like there’s interest.
|
12:37 |
How much do you think teams look at stats like FIP or SIERA and say “Wow this guy is actually a pretty good pitcher he just needs better luck” to determine their moves? |
12:37 |
: Teams look at everything.
|
12:38 |
Can you convince the Pirates to trade any prospects necessary to get Stanton? i.e. go all in on their division shot, or are they wise to hold them and hope to make a serious playoff run later? |
12:38 |
: Can’t buy what isn’t for sale.
|
12:38 |
You really believe that Rangers would not do a one-for-one swap Profar for Encarnacion? I don’t do it if I’m the Jays. |
12:38 |
: Sorry, Encarnacion just isn’t as valuable as you think.
|
12:39 |
Would this be a good way to describe Iglesias and the Tigers: considering how awful the division is, he is an OK pickup as a defense only shortstop for 50 games near the end of the season. But he’s not a long term solution at the position for the Tigers, and the Tigers would and should prefer to have Peralta at the position in the postseason. |
12:39 |
: Yep.
|
12:39 |
It seems like players who only do one really well are often overrated in prospect circles. I’m think Billy Hamilton as well. |
12:40 |
: The tools that are easiest to scout — speed, power, throwing arm, velocity — are the ones that seem to be given too much weight.
|
12:40 |
: So Ken Rosenthal just tweeted that the Rangers might be willing to trade Matt Garza. That was fast.
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12:41 |
Hey Dave, I presume teams have probably better stats than FIP or SIERRA that their own front office has come up with. Am I correct? |
12:41 |
: Depends on the front office.
|
12:41 |
With just a couple hours before the deadline, how well informed can a selling team be on the bag of prospects they will get back? Both sides need to move quickly, and they may not have been in talks before today, so how good is the information the selling team has on which prospects to ask for? It’s not like there is time to scout these guys. Do they keep sufficient information on hand about the lower-level talent in other team’s organizations? How big are the elements of trust and luck involved here? |
12:41 |
: They’ve been scouting potential buyers for weeks.
|
12:42 |
Do you think Simmons is on Iglesias’s level as a hitter? I’m a biased Braves fan, but he seems to have a little more potential. At least he hits the ball hard and never strikes out. |
12:42 |
: Yeah, Simmons > Iglesias.
|
12:42 |
who do you think is the worst GM in baseball right now? |
12:42 |
: Dayton Moore.
|
12:42 |
Best GM in baseball? |
12:42 |
: Billy Beane.
|
12:43 |
I asked Jeff yesterday if you guys ever wonder whether or not GMs, managers and players come on to your chats anonymously to get your input on personnel moves, how to improve as a player, etc. He said he doesn’t think that happens b/c the thought was why would them rely on the information provided here which is made rather quickly. He also mentioned that he does know that people do check out the articles. Do you agree? How do you know they read the articles? They’ve said so? |
12:44 |
: GMs and managers are busy, so I’d be surprised if they were reading the chats. I know of one (pretty good) player who reads almost every chat. And I have a lot of lower level friends in the game who read these things. So GM/Manager, probably not as much, but team personnel, definitely.
|
12:45 |
Dave, where do you get your trade news? MLBTR? Twitter? Personal contacts? |
12:45 |
: Twitter, mainly.
|
12:45 |
Is there any evidence to support the idea of players being re-energized by being traded into the thrill of a playoff race? |
12:45 |
: Not really.
|
12:45 |
In that same vein, how often does somebody from a front office approach a writer on FG for advice? Obviously writers are hired sometimes so they’re paying attention. |
12:46 |
: I wouldn’t say “advice”, but I have friends who will ask me what I think about a guy. It’s probably more just a sounding board/see what the outsiders think thing. They’re not going to make their decision based on what I say.
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12:46 |
” I know of one (pretty good) player who reads almost every chat.” So is Glen Perkins ever gonna chat with us? |
12:46 |
: I’ve actually never talked with Glen Perkins.
|
12:47 |
What team has done the best job of producing major league players the past 4 years from their farm system? Tampa? Atlanta? |
12:47 |
: St. Louis.
|
12:47 |
It’s Brandon McCarthy. Hello Brandon. |
12:47 |
: Not him either.
|
12:48 |
: I don’t know that he doesn’t, but that’s not who I was referring to.
|
12:48 |
Seems like Drew Storen is a good buy low candidate, no? |
12:48 |
: Agree.
|
12:49 |
Hello Delmon Young! Glad to have you chatting! |
12:49 |
Let’s keep guessing players for the rest of the chat…Is it Fred McGriff? |
12:49 |
Greinke |
12:49 |
Fine, the ghost of Joe Medwick. |
12:49 |
Its me, guys |
12:49 |
Yuniesky Betancourt? |
12:49 |
Hawk Harrelson says his hello |
12:49 |
Clearly it’s not McGriff himself, it’s his moustache. |
12:49 |
This chat is just going to devolve into a guessing game. |
12:49 |
: Too late.
|
12:50 |
I’ve become convinced that there’s an alter under Busch Stadium that the city of St. Louis and the Cardinals use to perform human sacrifices to turn middling prospects into Allen Craig, Jon Jay and Matt Carpenter. |
12:50 |
: Don’t forget David Freese. Trevor Rosenthal added 7 mph to his fastball.
|
12:50 |
: They’re a machine.
|
12:51 |
Was the Bedard deal really worse than Teixeira for Andrus, Feliz, Harrison and stuff? Or did it just hit home more because you are a Seattle fan? |
12:52 |
: That was an overpay, but that was also nearly every player going to Texas hitting their peak. I think that deal looks worse in retrospect than it was at the time. The Bedard deal was nutso from conception.
|
12:52 |
The outcome of the Teixeira deal has to be what caused the overvaluation of prospects we see now, right? |
12:52 |
: I’d say it helped move the needle to a more correct valuation, which is where we are now.
|
12:52 |
Out of St. Louis, Tampa, and Oakland, which is the best-run organization in baseball? |
12:53 |
: They’re all excellent, as are the Cubs, Red Sox, and many others. What STL has done lately is really remarkable though.
|
12:53 |
Which argument is more convoluted: Nature vs. Nurture or Drafting vs. Development? |
12:53 |
: It’s really the same argument.
|
12:54 |
Can you explain what type of player can be moved after the deadline and why? |
12:55 |
: Anyone theoretically can, but it’s generally marginal role players and high salary guys. Since they have to clear waivers, you have to trade guys that the non-contenders wouldn’t want. Joe Saunders last year, for instance.
|
12:55 |
What’s the Cardinals formula based on? Superior scouting, development, analytics, farm system integration…? |
12:55 |
: All of the above.
|
12:55 |
Do you expect your readership to grow with you and the site? Meaning does it get tiring having to explain the same concepts every single year (ie waivers) or do you like ‘educating’ the public |
12:56 |
: I think we always have to balance pushing the information forward with remembering that there are always going to be people finding us for the first time. Don’t want to alienate either side.
|
12:57 |
We see a lot of three-way trades…Have there ever been any four-way or five-way trades or would that just be too ridiculous to pull off? |
12:57 |
: The Franklin Gutierrez/J.J. Putz deal was a four way trade, I believe.
|
12:57 |
Why Winston-Salem? As a lifelong resident Greensboro, I can’t imagine wanting to live there. |
12:58 |
: Winston’s great. Easy to get around, no traffic, small town feel but still has everything one would need besides an airport. Much rather live in Winston than GSO, though you do have better restaurants.
|
12:58 |
Three hours to go. You off to lunch or waiting on breaking news? |
12:59 |
: Jeff will be here to replace me shortly. We’re doing shifts so that one of us can write if something happens while the other chats.
|
12:59 |
Any parting words/predictions for today? |
12:59 |
: Prepare for a whole lot of nothing.
|
12:59 |
Gun to your head, how many trades happen before deadline? |
12:59 |
: 4, all minor moves.
|
1:00 |
How are you, Jeff, Carson, and Eno communicating? Are you all together in person or across the country? |
1:00 |
: Jeff is in Portland, Eno is in San Francisco, Carson is in Madison, and I’m in Winston-Salem. Email is useful.
|
1:03 |
: Here’s a shocker – Jeff is late.
|
1:03 |
: This is unprecedented.
|
1:03 |
If someone doesn’t have a gmail account, do you automatically think that person is irresponsible and inefficient? I mean, work emails are understandable, and there’s even a good chance those are run through gmail. But whenever someone tells me their email address and it doesn’t end in gmail.com, anxiety kicks in and sets in motion a domino effect of feelings that are basically insurmountable. I hate this person. |
1:04 |
: My favorite is that one GM had to have his AOL account pried out of his hands. AOL!
|
1:04 |
If the Erik Bedard and Mark Texeira trades are notoriously awful, where does Doug Fister for basically nothing (Martinez, Wells, Furbush, Ruffin) trade rank? |
1:04 |
: Doug Fister got better after he was traded. That’s not something that is easily foreseeable. It’d be like killing the Astros for giving away Ben Zobrist.
|
1:05 |
Not at the time but Jose Baustista for Roinzon Diaz has to be in the mix for lopsided trade. |
1:05 |
: Another example of that kind of trade.
|
1:06 |
any of you guys coming to philly for sabr? |
1:06 |
: Bill Petti and David Laurila will be there.
|
1:07 |
Is Mike Newman gone forever? |
1:07 |
: What’s the good word!
|
1:07 |
: Mike’s just going to focus on his newsletter for now.
|
1:07 |
: Hey, look, it’s Mr. Punctuality.
|
1:08 |
: I was late because I was writing, which is a valid excuse. I was writing for USS Mariner, though, which is not a valid excuse.
|
1:08 |
: Who reads that rag?
|
1:08 |
: But it’s on the FG server so it’s sort of work.
|
1:08 |
: Baseball trades! There should be some!
|
1:08 |
Adam Rosales DFA’d by the A’s, per MLBTR |
1:09 |
: So this has happened twice in, what, two weeks? Three weeks?
|
1:09 |
: Puppy’s up. Got to go get eaten alive. Have fun Jeff.
|
1:09 |
: Bye Dave and sorry about your hands
|
1:09 |
Expecting Jeff to be on time is like expecting Iglesias to hit .270 |
1:10 |
: I used to be on time for everything, and I used to pride myself on that. Then I developed a friend who was always late, and a girlfriend who was always late, and I liked those people, so I absorbed their traits.
|
1:10 |
: Now I’m the worst!
|
1:10 |
The haul for peavy seems underwhelming, any thoughts as to why… |
1:10 |
: I think the White Sox must really like Avisail Garcia. Some teams are going to like him a lot more than some other teams
|
1:11 |
Jeff, since no goddamn baseball trades are going to happen today, what’s your favorite sushi restaurant in Portland? |
1:11 |
: I should have read the rest of this question before accepting it into the chat
|
1:11 |
: Sorry guys. The answer though is Bamboo I think
|
1:11 |
Bye Dave, Hello snark! |
1:11 |
: Dave snarks
|
1:12 |
Nick Cafardo just tweeted “Peavy has a 4.15 ERA over his past 2 starts. Workman has a 4.15 ERA over his only 3”. …..I have no words. |
1:12 |
: Lots of people are tweeting lots of things, lots of it being too bad
|
1:12 |
Hi Jeff, is Hunter Pence going anywhere? |
1:12 |
: I don’t think so. Cost doesn’t seem to match the ability/value
|
1:13 |
There can’t possibly be anyone that interested in Jose Iglesias triple slash, enough already |
1:13 |
: I don’t know what this was referring to but I bet a lot of people are interested in Jose Iglesias triple slash lines
|
1:13 |
How worrisome is the Yadi knee? |
1:14 |
: I don’t know the specifics of the damage, but I think it’s fair to be a little nervous about knee problems for an MVP candidate without a true backup
|
1:14 |
Peavy overrated? 14 home runs already this year? |
1:14 |
: Comical ballpark, normal home run rate the previous few years
|
1:15 |
Does Adam Lind have any trade value? |
1:15 |
: Not really
|
1:15 |
Look at Verlander’s numbers since June. Is he going Lincecum? |
1:16 |
: Not counting today: 71.2 innings, 28 walks, 50 strikeouts, nine dingers. Yikes
|
1:16 |
: Earlier this season, I wasn’t concerned about his ERA. Now it’s the peripherals that are sinking, not the runs allowed
|
1:16 |
How likely is it that Michael Morse has a new home after today? |
1:16 |
: Unlikely. He’s been hurt and isn’t good
|
1:17 |
Avisail Garcia = Jose Tabata. True or False |
1:17 |
: false, they are different
|
1:18 |
% chance the white sox think avisail garcia will turn into miguel cabrera because the guys on the tv said he looks just like him? |
1:18 |
: I think there are teams that love tools, and there are teams that love greater predictability. When toolsy players come together, they can be amazing, but Garcia’s got himself a lot of statistical question marks, and if he misses, it’s probably going to be easy to explain
|
1:19 |
Where should I eat lunch at when I’m in Portland on Friday? |
1:20 |
I’m a chronically early person and I really don’t like it. Nothing is worse than awkwardly waiting outside for someone for 15 minutes, only for that person to then be another 10 minutes late after that. |
1:20 |
: People appreciate you. They notice
|
1:20 |
My Orioles are interested in Mike Morse? But why? |
1:20 |
: Why are people asking about Justin Morneau? Worry about what gets done, not about what gets rumored
|
1:21 |
: One second to get caught up on twitter…
|
1:21 |
: nailed it
|
1:23 |
: So what I’ve learned from my Twitter foray is nothing
|
1:23 |
: When I woke up this morning, I emailed Dave to say I expect a day full of rumors and like really boring actual activity
|
1:23 |
No thoughts on the Braves? Every thing I write gets denied. |
1:24 |
: There are almost 2,000 people in here, many of them submitting questions. It’s not all about you, Jacob.
|
1:25 |
: Some people think the Braves are in on Norris. Some people disagree. Ultimately, it wouldn’t make much of a difference, because Norris isn’t all that good
|
1:26 |
: They already got their reliever in Downs, and though they could get another one, it’s looking pretty quiet, and they don’t exactly need a massive upgrade anywhere
|
1:26 |
Why did teams not named the Red Sox pull the trigger on the Peavy deal? What in the heck were they even thinking |
1:26 |
: White Sox love Garcia, Tigers needed a shortstop for when Peralta goes down and there aren’t very many shortstops. They prioritized defense given the rest of their team construction
|
1:27 |
: Granted, the Tigers could’ve picked up Brendan Ryan for nothing, and he would’ve brought defense and no bat, but this way the Tigers have a long-term solution if Iglesias shows any kind of offensive life. He’s got a higher floor than Garcia does
|
1:28 |
: There are few things less interesting than trade-deadline rumors about veteran relief pitchers
|
1:28 |
How can anyone be expected to work today? |
1:28 |
: This is my work!
|
1:28 |
Jim Bowden just tweeted maybe a Wilhemsen for Joc Pederson trade would make sense, is he crazy? Where can the M’s sign up for that. |
1:29 |
: Place that call, Zduriencik, place only that call, over and over and over again
|
1:29 |
If you are Arte Moreno, what is your plan regarding Sosh, Dipoto |
1:30 |
: I keep Dipoto around and I consider whether or not it’s time to find a new voice in the clubhouse. It wasn’t that long ago that Scioscia seemed like maybe baseball’s best manager, and he could probably be a good manager somewhere else, but maybe the Angels just need a change, the way the Red Sox did from Francona.
|
1:30 |
White Sox got 10 War out of Peavy for Clayton Richard and dumped 20 million. What’s not to like? |
1:30 |
: Man, that original Peavy trade basically sucked
|
1:31 |
You think any team is willing to trade top 3-4 prospects annnd take on remaining salary for Cliff Lee? |
1:31 |
: Absolutely not
|
1:31 |
Please explain, if it can be done, the “Rangers will listen to offers on Garza” bit. This must just be some beat writer getting a “we’ll listen on everyone/even Garza/sure, what the hell” exchange, right? |
1:32 |
: Yeah. The Rangers aren’t closed off to anything, and people know highlighting Garza will attract the most attention
|
1:32 |
: The Rangers aren’t pulling a 2002 Expos and flipping Cliff Floyd. They’re just trying to upgrade however they can, and if that means they move Garza, they move Garza
|
1:32 |
How much would the Tigers have to give up for Javier Lopez? Like a possible starter/likely reliever (Endrys Briceno or someone like that) or a Garcia-level player? |
1:34 |
: Not Garcia level. Lopez is a free agent to be, and a specialist. The price *shouldn’t* be much higher than the Scott Downs price, and if the Tigers feel like the Giants are asking too much, they could audible for someone like Oliver Perez, who can actually pitch to righties too
|
1:35 |
Would some team be smart to get Hughes cheap and put him in the bullpen? |
1:35 |
: Intriguing, but Hughes hasn’t relieved regularly since 2009, and for whatever it’s worth it might piss him off since he’s coming up on free agency
|
1:35 |
: There are better bets
|
1:36 |
If the BoSox make the playoffs who are their top three – Peavy/Lackey/Lester? |
1:36 |
: Impossible to say until we know what to make of Buchholz, but if he’s healthy he’ll be a major factor
|
1:36 |
I miss Dave! |
1:36 |
: Dave is with you, right now, right this very second
|
1:37 |
what are your thoughts on Haren ROS…his periphs are still pretty good? |
1:37 |
: Still believe in him as a #3/#4
|
1:37 |
Cliff Lee and Chase Utley, still Phillies after today? |
1:37 |
: Yup
|
1:38 |
: Padres apparently/reportedly getting close to landing Ian Kennedy?
|
1:39 |
Is Verlander transitioning from a power pitcher to a finesse pitcher? |
1:39 | : Not exactly |
1:39 |
: He’s just transitioning from being an unbelievable pitcher to a more believable pitcher
|
1:39 |
Who wins this barfight: Tanner Scheppers vs Hunter Pence ? |
1:39 |
: Pence with his laser eyes
|
1:39 |
What are the chances the Giants move anyone? |
1:40 |
: Anyone? Good. But probably mainly just Lopez
|
1:40 |
Is Arenado just another Atkins? |
1:40 |
: Arenado is 22 years old, and an incredible defender
|
1:41 |
: On Kennedy: 28, team control for another two years
|
1:43 |
: Big ERA but the stuff seems fine and he’s just been fighting a reduced strike rate. This looks to me like a good opportunity to buy low, and the Padres in particular have some woeful starting pitching depth
|
1:43 |
: Obviously, no judgment until we know what Kennedy might fetch, but it’s pretty easy to see why he has a market
|
1:44 |
If you’re Ben Cherington, do you go after another bullpen arm today, or are you satisfied with Workman moving to the pen? |
1:45 |
: I place some calls but I dont’ force myself to make a move. I poke around for a third baseman
|
1:45 |
Let’s be honest – Verlander is just feeling the after effects of like post-Kate Upton. |
1:45 |
: Probability: she isn’t the partner you think she would be
|
1:46 |
% chance Mike Trout ends up the greatest player of all time? |
1:46 |
: Very low
|
1:46 |
Except 7 Peavy HRs were on the road. |
1:46 |
: Okay. Not worried.
|
1:46 |
Any chance the Rangers trade for a RH bat? |
1:46 |
: Yes, a good one
|
1:46 |
: They have to be super worried about Berkman at this point, on top of Cruz
|
1:46 |
: not Berkman on top of Cruz, but you know what I mean
|
1:46 |
Is there a bigger drop off in MLB than Yadier Molina to Tony Cruz? |
1:47 |
: Maybe Mike Trout to Collin Cowgill, or Miguel Cabrera to Don Kelly
|
1:47 |
Mike Morse PIT existing RF? |
1:47 |
: He wouldn’t help anything
|
1:47 |
Why are the Padres trying to trade for Ian Kennedy? Too little too late |
1:47 |
: Investment for the future
|
1:48 |
Do you see any trades happening as a direct consequence of the upcoming suspensions? |
1:48 |
: Yeah. You could argue that’s really why the Tigers got involved on Peavy/Iglesias
|
1:49 |
: Wasn’t just about 2013, but if it weren’t for Peralta, the Tigers could’ve waited until winter to address
|
1:49 |
Will catcher framing be mentioned in any trade recaps today? |
1:49 |
: Are the Cardinals going to get a catcher?
|
1:49 |
How do you keep your twitter organized? Separate lists for national writers, fangraphs authors, athletes, etc…? |
1:50 |
: I barely follow anyone is how
|
1:50 |
hey jeff, what’s going on with the rays? |
1:50 |
: Want bat, want not to pay much
|
1:50 |
Any word on.pirates? |
1:50 |
: They’ll probably end the day with a new right fielder who is very moderately better than Jose Tabata
|
1:50 |
Who is Robert Sanchez? No one mentions him on the site but I’m hearing rumors that he’s integral. |
1:51 |
: He edits sometimes and makes general editorial suggestions sometimes
|
1:51 |
what’s your thoughts on the Red Sox 3B situation? Bogaerts, please? |
1:52 |
: Already it wasn’t very good, and I think they keep Bogaerts at short. Callaspo would’ve been interesting
|
1:53 |
: Piecoro: “Told Dbacks and Padres are “closing in” on an Ian Kennedy trade.”
|
1:53 |
Is Loria not trading Stanton because he hopes he can keep all 150 fans going to games? |
1:53 |
: Higher price in the winter
|
1:54 |
: …would be the sensible response. I dont’ know how Loria actually feels but he has to know Stanton isn’t going to want to stick around.
|
1:54 |
I love when people submit complaints and that is what you choose to read from them. Kinda like how you’ll pick this rather a question. |
1:54 |
Asivail Garcia = Dayan Viciedo? and why would you want two Viciedos? |
1:54 |
: Why did they want the first one? Tools!
|
1:54 |
Will the yankees get any help on offense? |
1:54 |
: They’ll try
|
1:54 |
: They won’t get anyone amazing
|
1:54 |
Trade rumors seem like acknowledgement of (a team’s) lack expressed in the shape of ill-fitting non-solutions. |
1:55 |
: I’ve tried to read this like 25 times
|
1:55 |
Jeff, have you done any more research on Jesus Montero’s running time to first base? |
1:55 |
: Since he had knee surgery he’s probably even slower
|
1:55 |
: But I haven’t been able to time him because he’s been in the minors because he sucks
|
1:56 |
What is the chance that Trout has a better year this year than last year? |
1:56 |
: He’s basically set to have an identical season in terms of value. He’s chopped his strikeouts to counteract slightly worse defense
|
1:57 |
Will Towers regret dealing Kennedy within the division, despite the fact that IPK doesn’t really have a role in the Diamondbacks’ future? |
1:57 |
: Maybe once or twice a year, but Kennedy isn’t going to be a thorn in the Diamondbacks’ sides for the next decade
|
1:57 |
Kennedy is a solid #3 pitcher for SD, I guess. |
1:58 |
: On that team right now he might be the ace
|
1:58 |
is there any chance that the rays will aquire an hitter? |
1:58 |
: Yes
|
1:58 |
I think another reason that no big names are being traded is that some of the mediocre teams that might normally be selling really think that they SHOULD be competing. For instance, the Blue Jays, Yankees (though they’re closer), Angels, Nationals, and Phillies. Teams if their positions in past might might all have been sellers. |
1:59 |
: And it’s so easy to think of yourself as a contender in the next season. Teams don’t want to admit that they’re sellers, and there isn’t that much out there to get, since teams also are reluctant to trade big prospect talent
|
1:59 |
how long can the Sox wait to call up Bogaerts?? |
1:59 |
: Pretty long
|
1:59 |
If you were to pick one pitcher to start a franchise, is there a better pick than Felix? |
2:00 |
: Harvey, maybe Kershaw
|
2:00 |
In theory, would Garza be a definite upgrade in Atlanta? |
2:00 |
: Garza would be a definite upgrade for pretty much every team
|
2:00 |
Would getting a shortstop like Aybar or Alexei be worthwhile for the Cardinals? |
2:00 |
: Cop-out answer but, yeah, depending on price
|
2:00 |
What exactly is the point of the Mets keeping Marlon Byrd? Finishing with 1-2 more wins and them seeing him walk in FA for nothing, kind of like 2012 Scott Hairston? Don’t understand how nothing/1-2 more 2013 wins >>> fringe prospect or two. |
2:02 |
: There’s some kind of value in finishing better than you would otherwise, so it’s not a choice between something and nothing. If the best that’s out there is a long-shot low-level prospect, is that *really* better than hanging on? I don’t know the answer to that but I know it isn’t that simple
|
2:02 |
Why is everyone so down on Morse? As a RH bat with incredible pop, he could help as at least a part timer. Defense in the OF is terrible, but he’s not the worst at first. |
2:03 |
: Can’t field, can’t run, can’t walk, can’t stay healthy. He makes sense as a cheap upgrade for a bench, but he’s not a solution and he might not be as cheap as he ought to be
|
2:03 |
Travis Snider- 3rd team in three years? |
2:03 |
: Not very good
|
2:03 |
What will the Yanks do? What should they do? |
2:03 |
: Try to get a 3B/try to get a 3B. Because they’re the Yankees, they can’t sell, but there’s not much in the way of additions out there for them
|
2:04 |
Any word on the Dodgers? |
2:04 |
: They’re good and pretty well set
|
2:04 |
If they keep Bogaerts at short, when do you think he comes up? |
2:04 |
: Next year
|
2:04 |
would justin smoak make sense for the yankees (solid defense, maybe some offensive upside)? if so, what do they need to give up for him? |
2:05 |
: That would be interesting, but he’s not much better than what they have in the short-term, and the Mariners probably value him more than they ought to at this moment
|
2:05 |
: I don’t know how else to tell Jeff Sullivan I am here and that he did a great job and I love him.
|
2:06 |
: Eno is here!
|
2:06 |
: Which means I won’t be, soon!
|
2:06 |
: Jeff is great!
|
2:06 |
: Eno is flattering!
|
2:06 |
Eno Sarris. Eno Sarris. Eno Sarris. |
2:06 |
: awww
|
2:06 |
Is Michael Young really an option for Boston at third? |
2:06 |
Could Beane be flipping Callaspo to Boston? |
2:06 |
: Would be creative but I don’t see it happening
|
2:06 |
why is the price higher in the winter? |
2:07 |
: More teams involved
|
2:07 |
You don’t think Boston might try Bogaerts at 3B for the rest of the season and then move him back to SS next year? |
2:07 |
: I think they’ve probably talked about it but I don’t think they’re going to do it. Maybe in September if things don’t go well in August
|
2:08 |
Why does it seem like most trades are right on the day of the deadline or near it? Are team |
2:08 |
s just procastinators? |
2:08 |
: Teams have to finally stop bullshitting
|
2:08 |
twitter says matt stites is the AA pitcher in the padres-diamondbacks deal |
2:08 |
Royals making a run at anyone now that they’re on this mini hot streak?? |
2:08 |
: Standing pat
|
2:08 |
Is Bogaerts at 3B for the rest of the season not the best option? Will it stunt his development that much? |
2:09 |
: Only five games of experience at third. Might not be quite ready for that
|
2:10 |
Can you explain why you think Loria would get more for Stanton in the winter as opposed to now? More teams would be in the running in the winter? |
2:10 |
: More teams involved, injury troubles further behind him (hopefully)
|
2:10 |
Thoughts on Walker’s tweet? |
2:11 |
: **SPECULATE**
|
2:11 |
You can’t say that Trout’s defense is worth this year, because UZR isn’t that reliable in 1-year samples. Some day people will understand that you need at least 2, preferably 3 years of data to look at UZR. And some day fangraphs will stop using partial- and single-season UZR in WAR calculations. |
2:11 |
: And maybe I’m not just basing it off of UZR
|
2:11 |
Nathan for Ethier. Fair or not? |
2:11 |
: Would be silly for Texas without the Dodgers covering a lot of money
|
2:12 |
: Eno, you there?
|
2:12 |
: Yes. Tag?
|
2:12 |
: I’m off! Looks like Kennedy stuff to tackle.
|
2:12 |
: whohoo. cents on the dollar!
|
2:12 |
: Good luck, Eno! Treat him kindly folks!
|
2:12 |
ENOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
2:12 |
: looks like they ready
|
2:13 |
: Thanks Eno bye Eno bye guys!
|
2:13 |
Eno Thoughts on Juan Largaras? Flash in the pan or here to stay? |
2:13 |
: Worried about the plate discipline. Looks like D is good. The team needs outfielders, so he’ll factor in no matter what.
|
2:13 |
I like Bowden’s articles but I can’t believe he ever ran a baseball team. His trade ideas are pretty bad but atleast he has an inside scoop. |
2:14 |
: He said today that Iglesias is good but doesn’t have range and I was surprised, hadn’t heard that before.
|
2:14 |
Bedard just got scratched for today. Who knows? |
2:14 |
: wouldn’t take much
|
2:14 |
Eno, are you chatting tomorrow too or is this it? |
2:14 |
: tomorrow too, more fantasy then.
|
2:14 |
Some people didn’t think Machado would be ready for 3b |
2:14 |
: I think if you can handle short, third is easier, why not. But I do think Young ends up there. Or Middlebrooks.
|
2:14 |
Cardinals announce Shane Robinson to the DL. |
2:15 |
: And Molina. Maybe they do a trade with the Marlins for fill in the gap pieces.
|
2:15 |
Fair enough if you aren’t using UZR. But someone please tell whoever can do something about it to stop using UZR in partial-season WAR calculations. |
2:15 |
: All sorts of stats are not reliable in a one-season sample, and yet we cite them all the time.
|
2:15 |
Eno, Duda for Every other player in baseball, who says no? |
2:15 |
: Baseball. Baseball says no.
|
2:15 |
Would you trade Glen Perkins if you received a B+ starting prospect and another B-level minor leaguer? |
2:16 |
: He’s under control for another year… But two B prospects would be useful to the Twins. I don’t think they are as close as the Mets, just to use an example.
|
2:16 |
Eno–what will the Rangers do? |
2:16 |
: Now the rumor is trade Garza I don’t understand. I think they’ll mostly stand pat. Stanton for all the marbles might be a little crazy for them.
|
2:17 |
I’m sitting in my cubicle doing no work today, I just alt tab to a random word doc every time someone walks by |
2:17 |
: WORKING HARD! SO HARD!
|
2:17 |
Kennedy being dealt would surely mean Cahill will return to the rotation when ready, right? Any roto value ROS for Cahill if so? |
2:17 |
: Cahill was coming back no matter what. he has fantasy value.
|
2:17 |
Do you see teams improperly utilizing or even neglecting the win curve this time of year? |
2:18 |
: I’m not sure we know exactly where the win curve sits wrt to the new wild card system and the value of a prospect in the draft changes. A lot is in flux right now.
|
2:18 |
Eno – neither of your comrades would answer my question. You’re my last hope. If you were Dan Duquette today, what would you be doing? |
2:19 |
: I feel like their biggest need is top of the rotation talent, which is impossible. If they trade for Lee, they get an older top of the rotation guy, and it costs them Gausman or the like. And I love Gausman. Tricky situation.
|
2:19 |
Yo, Eno! So Rangers have bad offense and a Cruz suspension looming. How desperate do they get for a bat in the next two hours? |
2:19 |
: Marlon Byrd? Lol.
|
2:19 |
Why do people get so upset by UZR’s year-to-year fluctuations but not BABIP’s? Both are included in WAR. |
2:19 |
: is point i make
|
2:20 |
hyman says kennedy deal done |
2:20 |
: um, typo?
|
2:20 |
Eno, Christian Yelich — bad ball park for homers and bad hitting lineup = fewer RBI’s. Worth holding onto? |
2:20 |
: Also, he’s going to strike out a bit much on his first try at the bigs IMO
|
2:20 |
Is Kennedy suddenly a must own now that he’s in Petco? |
2:21 |
: It does help the homer-happy control artist. Yes, even in ten-teamers, should be owned.
|
2:21 |
Verlander already has 4 walks in 3 innings today. Will he ever be a top 20 SP again? |
2:21 |
: I’m going to say yes here. Definitely yes. Sometimes innings creep up on pitchers that pitch the postseason. See Cain, Matt.
|
2:22 |
Will the Cardinals try to get someone to stopgap in injured Molina’s place? |
2:22 |
: They saying no. But they have a ton of pitching.
|
2:22 |
In one or two sentences, can you convince me why it’s a good idea for a non-playoff bound team to keep any bullpen arm in demand? |
2:23 |
: I don’t get it, but I’ve been arguing with the other side and mostly the idea is that some teams need to build towards respectability. That can have an effect on offseason free agent negotiations, for example. Also, if you don’t take JUST ANYTHING for a player, it gives you more leverage in future trade negotiations. I still think I’d be closer to ‘trade the sucker’ than some people.
|
2:23 |
So any reason Towers is trading Kennedy to the Padres for a reliever and some other small pieces? |
2:23 |
: Must like the prospect. Also: he’s unafraid to trade guys away that he doesn’t like for whatever reason. Don’t mean personally, just mean, look what he did with Bauer.
|
2:24 |
What are the chances the Royals do anything to get better? Second base or even a starting pitcher to replace Wade Davis in the rotation would be nice. Really wish KC would’ve jumped in and gone after Kennedy. |
2:24 |
: Low.
|
2:24 |
I found two 4-packs of Heady Topper hidden in the beer cave of some random deli in Vermont last weekend, while on vacation. That is all. |
2:24 |
: IM LOOKING OVER A FOUR LEAF CLOVER THAT I OVERLOOKED BEFOOOOOOOOOORE
|
2:24 |
Now that the A’s have given Freiman the 1B job, is that an indication that they see him as a long term investment or that Moss couldn’t handle it and they would like to upgrade? |
2:25 |
: Wait is this a thing? I’ve seen Moss playing, like yesterday. Freiman seems more suited to platooning.
|
2:25 |
The rumour is that the Rangers “listen on anyone”…so… |
2:25 |
: Exactly. And somehow that turns into specific names.
|
2:25 |
Avisail Garcia? Your thoughts… |
2:26 |
: I don’t get it. Bad plate discipline, too many Ks, maybe he can CF but I doubt it, and people talking about his wiry power… so far he’s been about average in ISO at every stop. Ask a scout, I guess.
|
2:26 |
As the resident name-pronouncing expert, how does one pronounce “Cleuluis”? |
2:26 |
: clueless, obviously
|
2:26 |
Who is most likely to be dealt in August? |
2:26 |
: Kevin Gregg.
|
2:26 |
If the Nats decided to trade Haren, could they get ANYTHING for him? His xFIP is somehow only 3.87 |
2:26 |
: No, remember the Angels tried this.
|
2:26 |
Eno who is the Mets 1B of the future? D’Arnaud? A middling FA? Think they might try to get a good hitting terrible defense outfielder, maybe like a Matt Holliday? |
2:27 |
: I think Ike can do an 80% Ryan Howard during peak years.
|
2:27 |
Other stats are generally unreliable for forecasting true talent, but are at least good at measuring “what happened.” UZR has significant portions of measurement error, which means that it’s even bad at measuring “what happened” without a decent sample. Fundamentally different problem that requires different treatment. |
2:27 |
: Ah, but the idea of WAR is to get D in there, and all D stats are flawed. So, you might have noticed, FG is about getting the best of what’s there out to people, free. And then we work hard at refining.
|
2:27 |
As of tomorrow, the Pirates starting RF is . . . |
2:28 |
: Not Alex Rios.
|
2:28 |
Local sports talk radio just dropped Dave and Jeff’s names and article that Peavy is better deal than Garza. Sorry Eno. |
2:28 |
: gonna go eat worms.
|
2:28 |
Do you think the Phil’s institutional aversion to advanced metrics neutralizes their ability to adequately value their own pieces from a competitor’s viewpoint? |
2:28 |
: Yes.
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I can’t handle the suspense. My morning has had an all too ordinary amount of vaganza.