2013 Trade Deadline Chat Extravaganza

12:01

Dave Cameron: Welcome to the FanGraphs Trade Deadline Chat Extravaganza. I’ll be here from 12-1, followed by Jeff Sullivan, then Eno Sarris, then Carson Cistulli will take you to the trade deadline at 4:00. I’ll come back at 4:00 and hang out for a bit to wrap up all the straggler deals that wander in after the deadline.

12:02

Dave Cameron: Obviously, we’ll be mostly focused on trade reaction/speculations today, but if nothing happens, we’ll talk about other stuff too. This isn’t going to be a typical Q&A, and we’ll try to keep it more real time then playing catch up on a backloaded queue, but I’d guess we’ll sneak in some regular questions here and there as well.

12:05

Comment From Guest
Yesterday on Twitter someone (I think Bowden) mentioned that the Cardinals should pursue Chris Owings with DD blocking his way at the MLB level. If they could make this happen at the deadline without giving up Taveras, Martininez, or Wacha do you think it improves the team (significantly) in the short term and long term? Also, excluding those 3, what do you think it would take? Maybe a package of Joe Kelly and Kolten Wong for Owings and something?
P.S. Your piece on Lee yesterday was excellent.

12:05

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t give up Kolton Wong for Chris Owings straight up. Terrible plate discipline, PCL power.

12:05

Comment From Rexel
Do the teams realise the deadline is today?

12:06

Dave Cameron: They also realize that you can make trades in August, especially with the kinds of role players that are available.

12:06

Comment From Mark W
With the Orioles showing interest in Bud Norris, should they be concerned about his K rate being down this year and a HR/FB% that is half of his career average?

12:06

Dave Cameron: Yep. I wrote about why he wasn’t a very good pitcher for ESPN/FG+ over the weekend.

12:07

Comment From Kerry Ligtenberg
Brock Holt? Really? Is that more of a sign of the Red Sox getting ready to trade for Young or the fact that they don’t believe Bogaerts/Middlebrooks can handle the load? Or both?

12:07

Dave Cameron: No harm in hedging your bets until you know if you’re going to make another trade.

12:07

Comment From ryan
thoughts on michael young to the red sox?

12:07

Dave Cameron: I’m not sure he actually helps them much.

12:07

Comment From Matt (Steinway)
So are you jealous that Dan Szym is over at the ESPN deadline chat?

12:08

Dave Cameron: He should be jealous of us.

12:08

Comment From Izzy
Is there a logic to the Mets not trading Bobby Parnell in the hope that his trade value will increase after spending more time being a “proven closer”.

12:08

Dave Cameron: Not really, no.

12:08

Comment From David
If the Cardinals don’t trade for a SS, they should give Ryan Jackson a shot at it, right?

12:08

Dave Cameron: Not sure he’s that much better than Kozma.

12:09

Comment From Roger
The obvious one. Winners and losers in the Peavy deal? As a Red Sox fan I feel like we got a steal, but how do the Tigers and White Sox feel.

12:09

Dave Cameron: Love for Red Sox, like for Tigers, don’t really like for White Sox. They’re basically betting big on Avisail Garcia, but from here, he looks like a tools guy who hasn’t figured out how to hit yet.

12:09

Comment From Scott
Out of Ollie Perez, Wilhelmsen, Gregg, Cishek, Perkins, Delabar, Holland, Gregerson, who do you think gets moved?

12:10

Dave Cameron: Gregg, Gregerson.

12:10

Comment From Wyld Stallyn
Now that MLB has given the names of players it plans to suspend to the MLBPA, do the teams also now know who will/won’t be available for the rest of the season?

12:10

Dave Cameron: It seems like it, yes.

12:10

Comment From Marcus A.
Over/under 2.5 trades during your hour?

12:10

Dave Cameron: Way under. I don’t know that we’re actually going to see many deals today, honestly.

12:11

Comment From Jason C.
What can the Rays hope to land with a Matt Joyce/Roberto Hernandez type pachage?

12:11

Dave Cameron: Why would they trade Matt Joyce?

12:11

Comment From Guest
Thoughts on Utley’s possible 2/26 extension?

12:12

Dave Cameron: A good value for Philadelphia if they can get it, but they really should be trying to rebuild.

12:12

Comment From Greg
Any opinion on the comparative quality of the Peavy/Garza deals? Am I wrong to think the Cubs gave less and received more?

12:12

Dave Cameron: Nope, that’s how i see it too. Texas would have been much better off with Peavy.

12:12

Comment From Guest
Thoughts on a potential Morse deal?

12:13

Dave Cameron: Don’t think it’s happening. If they were going to trade Morse, they wouldn’t have DFA’d Bay.

12:14

Comment From LaLoosh
Owings is 21. He will learn to take more walks. It’s far more difficult to learn to hit. He’s been raking for 2 years. He’s way outhitting a lot of older and more seasoned hitters in the PCL. This is not PCL mirage we’re seeing w/him. His D has also come a long way. The bias against young players with low BB rates has gone way too far.

12:14

Dave Cameron: Call me when he hits at sea level.

12:14

Comment From Maddie
Who is the guy you think really should be traded today but will not be?

12:14

Dave Cameron: Glen Perkins.

12:15

Comment From Rexel
Nate Schierholtz is where tomorrow?

12:15

Dave Cameron: Pittsburgh.

12:15

Comment From person hscer
What could the Nationals get for Soriano, hypothetically

12:15

Dave Cameron: Contract relief.

12:15

Comment From Scott
Did the Padres miss out on dealing Headley last year?

12:15

Dave Cameron: Yep.

12:15

Comment From Curious like a cat
Do you think Biogenesis suspensions will be over in time for the playoffs?

12:15

Dave Cameron: Seems like the plan is to get them in right around the 50 game mark, so that they’ll carry through end of regular season.

12:16

Comment From BassmanUW
I honestly don’t get why the Phillies aren’t trying to rebuild. That core just is so unlikely to rebound in a meaningful enough way, and they have pieces that would have enough value on the trade market (particularly Lee and Utley) to really do a pretty quick turnaround. Is this just the fact that Amaro is a GM who seems to constantly be in win now mode, even if the evidence says he shouldn’t be?

12:16

Dave Cameron: In some ways, they can’t totally rebuild because of the Howard/Hamels contracts. Tearing it down isn’t really possible. But they should be going more towards youth than they are.

12:17

Comment From hmm
Are three-way deals generally more “even” than the 2 way variety? I can’t think of a recent 3 way deal that’s been significantly worse for one team than the others.

12:17

Dave Cameron: A’s get John Jaso, Nationals get three interesting prospects, Mariners get jack crap.

12:18

Comment From Brian
Do the Mariners move anyone today? If so, who?

12:18

Dave Cameron: Doubt it.

12:18

Comment From zack
Do you get the interest in Morneau? I just don’t think he’s good anymore

12:18

Dave Cameron: He’s been a replacement level player since 2011, covering 1,250 PAs. It’s not the concussion anymore.

12:18

Comment From Scott
Is it worth making a qualifying offer to Phil Hughes or should the Yankees deal him for whatever they can get?

12:18

Dave Cameron: That would be crazy pants.

12:19

Comment From Matt
Are Royals making a mistake if they neither buy nor sell?

12:19

Dave Cameron: They’re making a mistake by not selling. Buying would be hilariously bad.

12:20

Comment From person
In a Twitter world, are we ever going to hear about a trade for the first time anymore, when we see a guy getting hugged by all his now-ex-teamates in the dugout during a live game?

12:20

Dave Cameron: Probably not. The days of a leak free transaction are almost completely behind us.

12:20

Comment From Guest
As a Tigers fan I really like the trade for Iglesias, do you think he can be an everyday player or is his bat that bad? (I don’t know much about him but I’ve seen enough of Avisail)

12:20

Dave Cameron: The bat is that bad. He’s Brendan Ryan 2.0.

12:21

Comment From Matt
Would you acquire Bud Norris for a package of “lesser prospects” if you were JACK Z?

12:21

Dave Cameron: No, because Bud Norris isn’t very good.

12:22

Comment From Sean
You don’t think Iglesias would eventually be able to hit 270/330/350? Considering the offensive talent around him that would be plenty good enough.

12:22

Dave Cameron: No, I don’t think he can do that, and no, the offensive talent around him doesn’t make carrying a guy who can’t hit better.

12:22

Comment From DollarBall
Would Oakland be wise to deal Cespedes today?

12:22

Dave Cameron: No, they’re in first place.

12:22

Comment From McGrupp
Given that you don’t think a ton of Avisail Garcia, why don’t you love the deal for the Tigers?

12:22

Dave Cameron: I don’t think a ton of Jose Iglesias either.

12:23

Comment From The Marlins
The Cardinals offered us Tavares, Carlos Martines, and Wong for Stanton. Should we do it?

12:23

Dave Cameron: You can do better.

12:24

Comment From Roger
Someone recently convinced me that the Red Sox should try to trade for Headley. Perfect buy-low situation, tons of upside, fills a need for this year, and would be perfect for Fenway. Thoughts?

12:24

Dave Cameron: Asking price has always been ridiculous

12:24

Comment From AA
qualifying offer for josh Johnson?

12:25

Dave Cameron: Yep. Dan Haren got 1/13 last winter.

12:25

Comment From ralph
Why don’t you tweet out your ESPN insider pieces? I can obviously look for them myself on the ESPN site, but a tweet is a very helpful in that I don’t have to wonder if/when you’ve put up something new.

12:25

Dave Cameron: I don’t usually know when they’re going up.

12:25

Comment From someone
Does the iglesias trade make it any more likely that Boston sees Xander as a SS long term?

12:25

Dave Cameron: Yep, I think that’s exactly what this trade says.

12:26

Comment From Josh
Seems like the last 2 trade deadlines have been pretty boring overall. What gives?

12:26

Dave Cameron: Second wild card has convinced bad teams to not sell. Trade deadline needs to be pushed back.

12:28

Comment From BassmanUW
I’d think .270/.330/.350 would be absolute ceiling for Iglesias. He could just as easily be .230/.260/.300.

12:28

Dave Cameron: Yep.

12:28

Comment From Jason C.
Would a package of Farnsworth/Sean Rodriguez/Alex Colome net Gattis?

12:28

Dave Cameron: This the funniest suggestion of the day.

12:28

Comment From george
To be a legitimate contender, the Baltimore Orioles need an upgrade most at…..

12:28

Dave Cameron: SP, DH.

12:29

Comment From Mark
So say Jhonny gets suspended with exactly 50 games remaining…would the Tigers leave him off the postseason roster? Would he even be eligible to play?

12:29

Dave Cameron: He’d be eligible, and my guess is they’d bring him back.

12:30

Comment From Tom
Qualifying offer for Morse?

12:30

Dave Cameron: That would be worse than giving it to Phil Hughes.

12:30

Comment From Dave
Pirates don’t trade any of their top 5 prospects today or at all this season: True/False?

12:30

Dave Cameron: True.

12:31

Comment From J. Baker
If the Rangers would be willing to send Profar to Toronto for Encarnacion, would the the Blue Jays say no?

12:31

Dave Cameron: No, the Rangers would.

12:31

Comment From Rubby of the Rose
Do you not think Iglesias can get his discipline up to get around a .330 OBP? Even batting around .240-.250?

12:31

Dave Cameron: Why would teams throw a .240 hitter with no power enough balls for him to get a .330 OBP?

12:32

Comment From John
Mariners stand pat. Bad idea, or worst idea?

12:32

Dave Cameron: It’s silly, but there’s also not a lot of reasons to think that this front office would trade for good players anyway. They value the wrong things.

12:33

Comment From Chicago Mark
I know you don’t like the Tigers getting Ig. But aren’t they better equiped if peralta gets suspended? And, I don’t know the UZR info. But how much defense does Ig bring to the table for them?

12:33

Dave Cameron: I didn’t say I don’t like it. I don’t think they gave up much, and it makes sense to get an SS replacement for Peralta. I just don’t think Iglesias is going to hit enough to be a good player.

12:33

Comment From Matt
By the end of the day, Alex Rios will be playing for…

12:34

Dave Cameron: The White Sox. He’s a guy who can be an August trade piece if someone wants him.

12:34

Comment From Sam
If you were the White Sox, what would you have wanted for Peavy?

12:34

Dave Cameron: A little more polish.

12:34

Comment From Paul
Morosi says Mariners are in discussions with teams for Perez and Wilhelmsen. Who could possibly want Wilhelmsen right now?

12:35

Dave Cameron: Wilhelmsen is a good buy low. Arm is still terrific, just needs to figure out his command again.

12:35

Comment From Rubby of the Rose
“Why would teams throw a .240 hitter with no power enough balls for him to get a .330 OBP?” Good point…. But what about Elvis Andrus, for instance?

12:35

Dave Cameron: He’s not a .240 hitter.

12:36

Comment From ralph
Would you agree with wRC+ that Encarnacion is right now one of the 10 best hitters in baseball (considering only what he produces at the plate)?

12:36

Dave Cameron: He’s in the mix, yes.

12:36

Comment From Scott
What’s the most one-sided deal of the past decade?

12:36

Dave Cameron: Erik Bedard for Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, and stuff.

12:37

Comment From Brian
Are Iglesias/Hechavarria types overrated in prospect circles?

12:37

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think so.

12:37

Comment From Matt
Odds Ian Kennedy gets moved?

12:37

Dave Cameron: Seems like there’s interest.

12:37

Comment From Jacob
How much do you think teams look at stats like FIP or SIERA and say “Wow this guy is actually a pretty good pitcher he just needs better luck” to determine their moves?

12:37

Dave Cameron: Teams look at everything.

12:38

Comment From Nate
Can you convince the Pirates to trade any prospects necessary to get Stanton? i.e. go all in on their division shot, or are they wise to hold them and hope to make a serious playoff run later?

12:38

Dave Cameron: Can’t buy what isn’t for sale.

12:38

Comment From Guest
You really believe that Rangers would not do a one-for-one swap Profar for Encarnacion? I don’t do it if I’m the Jays.

12:38

Dave Cameron: Sorry, Encarnacion just isn’t as valuable as you think.

12:39

Comment From BassmanUW
Would this be a good way to describe Iglesias and the Tigers: considering how awful the division is, he is an OK pickup as a defense only shortstop for 50 games near the end of the season. But he’s not a long term solution at the position for the Tigers, and the Tigers would and should prefer to have Peralta at the position in the postseason.

12:39

Dave Cameron: Yep.

12:39

Comment From BassmanUW
It seems like players who only do one really well are often overrated in prospect circles. I’m think Billy Hamilton as well.

12:40

Dave Cameron: The tools that are easiest to scout — speed, power, throwing arm, velocity — are the ones that seem to be given too much weight.

12:40

Dave Cameron: So Ken Rosenthal just tweeted that the Rangers might be willing to trade Matt Garza. That was fast.

12:41

Comment From Guest
Hey Dave, I presume teams have probably better stats than FIP or SIERRA that their own front office has come up with. Am I correct?

12:41

Dave Cameron: Depends on the front office.

12:41

Comment From derp
With just a couple hours before the deadline, how well informed can a selling team be on the bag of prospects they will get back? Both sides need to move quickly, and they may not have been in talks before today, so how good is the information the selling team has on which prospects to ask for? It’s not like there is time to scout these guys. Do they keep sufficient information on hand about the lower-level talent in other team’s organizations? How big are the elements of trust and luck involved here?

12:41

Dave Cameron: They’ve been scouting potential buyers for weeks.

12:42

Comment From Paul
Do you think Simmons is on Iglesias’s level as a hitter? I’m a biased Braves fan, but he seems to have a little more potential. At least he hits the ball hard and never strikes out.

12:42

Dave Cameron: Yeah, Simmons > Iglesias.

12:42

Comment From bryan
who do you think is the worst GM in baseball right now?

12:42

Dave Cameron: Dayton Moore.

12:42

Comment From Compton
Best GM in baseball?

12:42

Dave Cameron: Billy Beane.

12:43

Comment From GMs, Managers and Players
I asked Jeff yesterday if you guys ever wonder whether or not GMs, managers and players come on to your chats anonymously to get your input on personnel moves, how to improve as a player, etc. He said he doesn’t think that happens b/c the thought was why would them rely on the information provided here which is made rather quickly. He also mentioned that he does know that people do check out the articles. Do you agree? How do you know they read the articles? They’ve said so?

12:44

Dave Cameron: GMs and managers are busy, so I’d be surprised if they were reading the chats. I know of one (pretty good) player who reads almost every chat. And I have a lot of lower level friends in the game who read these things. So GM/Manager, probably not as much, but team personnel, definitely.

12:45

Comment From Guest
Dave, where do you get your trade news? MLBTR? Twitter? Personal contacts?

12:45

Dave Cameron: Twitter, mainly.

12:45

Comment From zack
Is there any evidence to support the idea of players being re-energized by being traded into the thrill of a playoff race?

12:45

Dave Cameron: Not really.

12:45

Comment From Scott
In that same vein, how often does somebody from a front office approach a writer on FG for advice? Obviously writers are hired sometimes so they’re paying attention.

12:46

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t say “advice”, but I have friends who will ask me what I think about a guy. It’s probably more just a sounding board/see what the outsiders think thing. They’re not going to make their decision based on what I say.

12:46

Comment From Matt
” I know of one (pretty good) player who reads almost every chat.” So is Glen Perkins ever gonna chat with us?

12:46

Dave Cameron: I’ve actually never talked with Glen Perkins.

12:47

Comment From Joe
What team has done the best job of producing major league players the past 4 years from their farm system? Tampa? Atlanta?

12:47

Dave Cameron: St. Louis.

12:47

Comment From HayMax
It’s Brandon McCarthy. Hello Brandon.

12:47

Dave Cameron: Not him either.

12:48

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that he doesn’t, but that’s not who I was referring to.

12:48

Comment From Joe
Seems like Drew Storen is a good buy low candidate, no?

12:48

Dave Cameron: Agree.

12:49

Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Hello Delmon Young! Glad to have you chatting!

12:49

Comment From Keith
Let’s keep guessing players for the rest of the chat…Is it Fred McGriff?

12:49

Comment From Scott
Greinke

12:49

Comment From Movementarians
Fine, the ghost of Joe Medwick.

12:49

Comment From Bruce Chen
Its me, guys

12:49

Comment From Scott
Yuniesky Betancourt?

12:49

Comment From TWTW
Hawk Harrelson says his hello

12:49

Comment From mv
Clearly it’s not McGriff himself, it’s his moustache.

12:49

Comment From So who is the player?
This chat is just going to devolve into a guessing game.

12:49

Dave Cameron: Too late.

12:50

Comment From BassmanUW
I’ve become convinced that there’s an alter under Busch Stadium that the city of St. Louis and the Cardinals use to perform human sacrifices to turn middling prospects into Allen Craig, Jon Jay and Matt Carpenter.

12:50

Dave Cameron: Don’t forget David Freese. Trevor Rosenthal added 7 mph to his fastball.

12:50

Dave Cameron: They’re a machine.

12:51

Comment From Ed
Was the Bedard deal really worse than Teixeira for Andrus, Feliz, Harrison and stuff? Or did it just hit home more because you are a Seattle fan?

12:52

Dave Cameron: That was an overpay, but that was also nearly every player going to Texas hitting their peak. I think that deal looks worse in retrospect than it was at the time. The Bedard deal was nutso from conception.

12:52

Comment From Joe
The outcome of the Teixeira deal has to be what caused the overvaluation of prospects we see now, right?

12:52

Dave Cameron: I’d say it helped move the needle to a more correct valuation, which is where we are now.

12:52

Comment From Peter
Out of St. Louis, Tampa, and Oakland, which is the best-run organization in baseball?

12:53

Dave Cameron: They’re all excellent, as are the Cubs, Red Sox, and many others. What STL has done lately is really remarkable though.

12:53

Comment From kevinthecomic
Which argument is more convoluted: Nature vs. Nurture or Drafting vs. Development?

12:53

Dave Cameron: It’s really the same argument.

12:54

Comment From Evan
Can you explain what type of player can be moved after the deadline and why?

12:55

Dave Cameron: Anyone theoretically can, but it’s generally marginal role players and high salary guys. Since they have to clear waivers, you have to trade guys that the non-contenders wouldn’t want. Joe Saunders last year, for instance.

12:55

Comment From Channelclemente
What’s the Cardinals formula based on? Superior scouting, development, analytics, farm system integration…?

12:55

Dave Cameron: All of the above.

12:55

Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Do you expect your readership to grow with you and the site? Meaning does it get tiring having to explain the same concepts every single year (ie waivers) or do you like ‘educating’ the public

12:56

Dave Cameron: I think we always have to balance pushing the information forward with remembering that there are always going to be people finding us for the first time. Don’t want to alienate either side.

12:57

Comment From Mark
We see a lot of three-way trades…Have there ever been any four-way or five-way trades or would that just be too ridiculous to pull off?

12:57

Dave Cameron: The Franklin Gutierrez/J.J. Putz deal was a four way trade, I believe.

12:57

Comment From Scott
Why Winston-Salem? As a lifelong resident Greensboro, I can’t imagine wanting to live there.

12:58

Dave Cameron: Winston’s great. Easy to get around, no traffic, small town feel but still has everything one would need besides an airport. Much rather live in Winston than GSO, though you do have better restaurants.

12:58

Comment From Movementarians
Three hours to go. You off to lunch or waiting on breaking news?

12:59

Dave Cameron: Jeff will be here to replace me shortly. We’re doing shifts so that one of us can write if something happens while the other chats.

12:59

Comment From Compton
Any parting words/predictions for today?

12:59

Dave Cameron: Prepare for a whole lot of nothing.

12:59

Comment From ryan
Gun to your head, how many trades happen before deadline?

12:59

Dave Cameron: 4, all minor moves.

1:00	Comment From Sean T. How are you, Jeff, Carson, and Eno communicating? Are you all together in person or across the country?

1:00	Dave Cameron: Jeff is in Portland, Eno is in San Francisco, Carson is in Madison, and I’m in Winston-Salem. Email is useful.

1:03	Dave Cameron: Here’s a shocker – Jeff is late.

1:03	Dave Cameron: This is unprecedented.

1:03

Comment From Spencer
If someone doesn’t have a gmail account, do you automatically think that person is irresponsible and inefficient? I mean, work emails are understandable, and there’s even a good chance those are run through gmail. But whenever someone tells me their email address and it doesn’t end in gmail.com, anxiety kicks in and sets in motion a domino effect of feelings that are basically insurmountable. I hate this person.

1:04	Dave Cameron: My favorite is that one GM had to have his AOL account pried out of his hands. AOL!

1:04	Comment From Greyson If the Erik Bedard and Mark Texeira trades are notoriously awful, where does Doug Fister for basically nothing (Martinez, Wells, Furbush, Ruffin) trade rank?

1:04	Dave Cameron: Doug Fister got better after he was traded. That’s not something that is easily foreseeable. It’d be like killing the Astros for giving away Ben Zobrist.

1:05	Comment From Guest Not at the time but Jose Baustista for Roinzon Diaz has to be in the mix for lopsided trade.

1:05	Dave Cameron: Another example of that kind of trade.

1:06	Comment From ar any of you guys coming to philly for sabr?

1:06	Dave Cameron: Bill Petti and David Laurila will be there.

1:07	Comment From Dan Is Mike Newman gone forever?

1:07	Jeff Sullivan: What’s the good word!

1:07	Dave Cameron: Mike’s just going to focus on his newsletter for now.

1:07	Dave Cameron: Hey, look, it’s Mr. Punctuality.

1:08	Jeff Sullivan: I was late because I was writing, which is a valid excuse. I was writing for USS Mariner, though, which is not a valid excuse.

1:08	Dave Cameron: Who reads that rag?

1:08	Jeff Sullivan: But it’s on the FG server so it’s sort of work.

1:08	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball trades! There should be some!

1:08	Comment From Santos Adam Rosales DFA’d by the A’s, per MLBTR

1:09	Jeff Sullivan: So this has happened twice in, what, two weeks? Three weeks?

1:09	Dave Cameron: Puppy’s up. Got to go get eaten alive. Have fun Jeff.

1:09	Jeff Sullivan: Bye Dave and sorry about your hands

1:09	Comment From Meano Eno Expecting Jeff to be on time is like expecting Iglesias to hit .270

1:10	Jeff Sullivan: I used to be on time for everything, and I used to pride myself on that. Then I developed a friend who was always late, and a girlfriend who was always late, and I liked those people, so I absorbed their traits.

1:10	Jeff Sullivan: Now I’m the worst!

1:10	Comment From jesse The haul for peavy seems underwhelming, any thoughts as to why…

1:10	Jeff Sullivan: I think the White Sox must really like Avisail Garcia. Some teams are going to like him a lot more than some other teams

1:11	Comment From Justin Jeff, since no goddamn baseball trades are going to happen today, what’s your favorite sushi restaurant in Portland?

1:11	Jeff Sullivan: I should have read the rest of this question before accepting it into the chat

1:11	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry guys. The answer though is Bamboo I think

1:11	Comment From Alex Bye Dave, Hello snark!

1:11	Jeff Sullivan: Dave snarks

1:12	Comment From Forsyth Nick Cafardo just tweeted “Peavy has a 4.15 ERA over his past 2 starts. Workman has a 4.15 ERA over his only 3”. …..I have no words.

1:12	Jeff Sullivan: Lots of people are tweeting lots of things, lots of it being too bad

1:12	Comment From moot Hi Jeff, is Hunter Pence going anywhere?

1:12	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so. Cost doesn’t seem to match the ability/value

1:13	Comment From Volcano There can’t possibly be anyone that interested in Jose Iglesias triple slash, enough already

1:13	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what this was referring to but I bet a lot of people are interested in Jose Iglesias triple slash lines

1:13	Comment From Chris How worrisome is the Yadi knee?

1:14	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the specifics of the damage, but I think it’s fair to be a little nervous about knee problems for an MVP candidate without a true backup

1:14	Comment From zack Peavy overrated? 14 home runs already this year?

1:14	Jeff Sullivan: Comical ballpark, normal home run rate the previous few years

1:15	Comment From Vin Does Adam Lind have any trade value?

1:15	Jeff Sullivan: Not really

1:15	Comment From Jeff Look at Verlander’s numbers since June. Is he going Lincecum?

1:16	Jeff Sullivan: Not counting today: 71.2 innings, 28 walks, 50 strikeouts, nine dingers. Yikes

1:16	Jeff Sullivan: Earlier this season, I wasn’t concerned about his ERA. Now it’s the peripherals that are sinking, not the runs allowed

1:16	Comment From Joe How likely is it that Michael Morse has a new home after today?

1:16	Jeff Sullivan: Unlikely. He’s been hurt and isn’t good

1:17	Comment From Redbeard Avisail Garcia = Jose Tabata. True or False

1:17	Jeff Sullivan: false, they are different

1:18	Comment From daniel % chance the white sox think avisail garcia will turn into miguel cabrera because the guys on the tv said he looks just like him?

1:18	Jeff Sullivan: I think there are teams that love tools, and there are teams that love greater predictability. When toolsy players come together, they can be amazing, but Garcia’s got himself a lot of statistical question marks, and if he misses, it’s probably going to be easy to explain

1:19	Comment From Dgood Where should I eat lunch at when I’m in Portland on Friday?

1:19	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.olympicprovisions.com/

1:20	Comment From Matt (Steinway) I’m a chronically early person and I really don’t like it. Nothing is worse than awkwardly waiting outside for someone for 15 minutes, only for that person to then be another 10 minutes late after that.

1:20	Jeff Sullivan: People appreciate you. They notice

1:20	Comment From AGH! My Orioles are interested in Mike Morse? But why?

1:20	Jeff Sullivan: Why are people asking about Justin Morneau? Worry about what gets done, not about what gets rumored

1:21	Jeff Sullivan: One second to get caught up on twitter…

1:21	Jeff Sullivan: https://twitter.com/mccoveychron/status/362618057576824832

1:21	Jeff Sullivan: nailed it

1:23	Jeff Sullivan: So what I’ve learned from my Twitter foray is nothing

1:23	Jeff Sullivan: When I woke up this morning, I emailed Dave to say I expect a day full of rumors and like really boring actual activity

1:23	Comment From Jacob No thoughts on the Braves? Every thing I write gets denied.

1:24	Jeff Sullivan: There are almost 2,000 people in here, many of them submitting questions. It’s not all about you, Jacob.

1:25	Jeff Sullivan: Some people think the Braves are in on Norris. Some people disagree. Ultimately, it wouldn’t make much of a difference, because Norris isn’t all that good

1:26	Jeff Sullivan: They already got their reliever in Downs, and though they could get another one, it’s looking pretty quiet, and they don’t exactly need a massive upgrade anywhere

1:26	Comment From Billy Beanes fiber Why did teams not named the Red Sox pull the trigger on the Peavy deal? What in the heck were they even thinking

1:26	Jeff Sullivan: White Sox love Garcia, Tigers needed a shortstop for when Peralta goes down and there aren’t very many shortstops. They prioritized defense given the rest of their team construction

1:27	Jeff Sullivan: Granted, the Tigers could’ve picked up Brendan Ryan for nothing, and he would’ve brought defense and no bat, but this way the Tigers have a long-term solution if Iglesias shows any kind of offensive life. He’s got a higher floor than Garcia does

1:28	Jeff Sullivan: There are few things less interesting than trade-deadline rumors about veteran relief pitchers

1:28	Comment From Meano Eno How can anyone be expected to work today?

1:28	Jeff Sullivan: This is my work!

1:28	Comment From Joey Jim Bowden just tweeted maybe a Wilhemsen for Joc Pederson trade would make sense, is he crazy? Where can the M’s sign up for that.

1:29	Jeff Sullivan: Place that call, Zduriencik, place only that call, over and over and over again

1:29	Comment From Mike Hawk If you are Arte Moreno, what is your plan regarding Sosh, Dipoto

1:30

Jeff Sullivan: I keep Dipoto around and I consider whether or not it’s time to find a new voice in the clubhouse. It wasn’t that long ago that Scioscia seemed like maybe baseball’s best manager, and he could probably be a good manager somewhere else, but maybe the Angels just need a change, the way the Red Sox did from Francona.

1:30	Comment From Guest White Sox got 10 War out of Peavy for Clayton Richard and dumped 20 million. What’s not to like?

1:30	Jeff Sullivan: Man, that original Peavy trade basically sucked

1:31	Comment From BmoreGuy You think any team is willing to trade top 3-4 prospects annnd take on remaining salary for Cliff Lee?

1:31	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely not

1:31	Comment From MFG Please explain, if it can be done, the “Rangers will listen to offers on Garza” bit. This must just be some beat writer getting a “we’ll listen on everyone/even Garza/sure, what the hell” exchange, right?

1:32	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah. The Rangers aren’t closed off to anything, and people know highlighting Garza will attract the most attention

1:32	Jeff Sullivan: The Rangers aren’t pulling a 2002 Expos and flipping Cliff Floyd. They’re just trying to upgrade however they can, and if that means they move Garza, they move Garza

1:32	Comment From Greyson How much would the Tigers have to give up for Javier Lopez? Like a possible starter/likely reliever (Endrys Briceno or someone like that) or a Garcia-level player?

1:34	Jeff Sullivan: Not Garcia level. Lopez is a free agent to be, and a specialist. The price shouldn’t be much higher than the Scott Downs price, and if the Tigers feel like the Giants are asking too much, they could audible for someone like Oliver Perez, who can actually pitch to righties too

1:35	Comment From Volcano Would some team be smart to get Hughes cheap and put him in the bullpen?

1:35	Jeff Sullivan: Intriguing, but Hughes hasn’t relieved regularly since 2009, and for whatever it’s worth it might piss him off since he’s coming up on free agency

1:35	Jeff Sullivan: There are better bets

1:36	Comment From Scuba Steve If the BoSox make the playoffs who are their top three – Peavy/Lackey/Lester?

1:36	Jeff Sullivan: Impossible to say until we know what to make of Buchholz, but if he’s healthy he’ll be a major factor

1:36	Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy I miss Dave!

1:36	Jeff Sullivan: Dave is with you, right now, right this very second

1:37	Comment From ar what are your thoughts on Haren ROS…his periphs are still pretty good?

1:37	Jeff Sullivan: Still believe in him as a #3/#4

1:37	Comment From BmoreGuy Cliff Lee and Chase Utley, still Phillies after today?

1:37	Jeff Sullivan: Yup

1:38	Jeff Sullivan: Padres apparently/reportedly getting close to landing Ian Kennedy?

1:39	Comment From Peter Is Verlander transitioning from a power pitcher to a finesse pitcher?

1:39	Jeff Sullivan: Not exactly http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=8700&position=P&pitch=FA

1:39	Jeff Sullivan: He’s just transitioning from being an unbelievable pitcher to a more believable pitcher

1:39	Comment From Volcano Who wins this barfight: Tanner Scheppers vs Hunter Pence ?

1:39	Jeff Sullivan: Pence with his laser eyes

1:39	Comment From Aaron What are the chances the Giants move anyone?

1:40	Jeff Sullivan: Anyone? Good. But probably mainly just Lopez

1:40	Comment From Regina Is Arenado just another Atkins?

1:40	Jeff Sullivan: Arenado is 22 years old, and an incredible defender

1:41	Jeff Sullivan: On Kennedy: 28, team control for another two years

1:43	Jeff Sullivan: Big ERA but the stuff seems fine and he’s just been fighting a reduced strike rate. This looks to me like a good opportunity to buy low, and the Padres in particular have some woeful starting pitching depth

1:43	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, no judgment until we know what Kennedy might fetch, but it’s pretty easy to see why he has a market

1:44	Comment From Otis If you’re Ben Cherington, do you go after another bullpen arm today, or are you satisfied with Workman moving to the pen?

1:45	Jeff Sullivan: I place some calls but I dont’ force myself to make a move. I poke around for a third baseman

1:45	Comment From Scuba Steve Let’s be honest – Verlander is just feeling the after effects of like post-Kate Upton.

1:45	Jeff Sullivan: Probability: she isn’t the partner you think she would be

1:46	Comment From jlr % chance Mike Trout ends up the greatest player of all time?

1:46	Jeff Sullivan: Very low

1:46	Comment From Charles H Except 7 Peavy HRs were on the road.

1:46	Jeff Sullivan: Okay. Not worried.

1:46	Comment From pete Any chance the Rangers trade for a RH bat?

1:46	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, a good one

1:46	Jeff Sullivan: They have to be super worried about Berkman at this point, on top of Cruz

1:46	Jeff Sullivan: not Berkman on top of Cruz, but you know what I mean

1:46	Comment From Tom Is there a bigger drop off in MLB than Yadier Molina to Tony Cruz?

1:47	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Mike Trout to Collin Cowgill, or Miguel Cabrera to Don Kelly

1:47	Comment From Matt Mike Morse PIT existing RF?

1:47	Jeff Sullivan: He wouldn’t help anything

1:47	Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy Why are the Padres trying to trade for Ian Kennedy? Too little too late

1:47	Jeff Sullivan: Investment for the future

1:48	Comment From ryan Do you see any trades happening as a direct consequence of the upcoming suspensions?

1:48	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah. You could argue that’s really why the Tigers got involved on Peavy/Iglesias

1:49	Jeff Sullivan: Wasn’t just about 2013, but if it weren’t for Peralta, the Tigers could’ve waited until winter to address

1:49	Comment From Volcano Will catcher framing be mentioned in any trade recaps today?

1:49	Jeff Sullivan: Are the Cardinals going to get a catcher?

1:49	Comment From ryan How do you keep your twitter organized? Separate lists for national writers, fangraphs authors, athletes, etc…?

1:50	Jeff Sullivan: I barely follow anyone is how

1:50	Comment From Guest hey jeff, what’s going on with the rays?

1:50	Jeff Sullivan: Want bat, want not to pay much

1:50	Comment From evan Any word on.pirates?

1:50	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll probably end the day with a new right fielder who is very moderately better than Jose Tabata

1:50	Comment From Sam Who is Robert Sanchez? No one mentions him on the site but I’m hearing rumors that he’s integral.

1:51	Jeff Sullivan: He edits sometimes and makes general editorial suggestions sometimes

1:51	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.5280.com/profile/robert-sanchez/*

1:51	Comment From jlr what’s your thoughts on the Red Sox 3B situation? Bogaerts, please?

1:52	Jeff Sullivan: Already it wasn’t very good, and I think they keep Bogaerts at short. Callaspo would’ve been interesting

1:53	Jeff Sullivan: https://twitter.com/nickpiecoro/status/362630521131503617

1:53	Jeff Sullivan: Piecoro: “Told Dbacks and Padres are “closing in” on an Ian Kennedy trade.”

1:53	Comment From Gila Monster Is Loria not trading Stanton because he hopes he can keep all 150 fans going to games?

1:53	Jeff Sullivan: Higher price in the winter

1:54	Jeff Sullivan: …would be the sensible response. I dont’ know how Loria actually feels but he has to know Stanton isn’t going to want to stick around.

1:54	Comment From Rob I love when people submit complaints and that is what you choose to read from them. Kinda like how you’ll pick this rather a question.

1:54	Comment From Clevelander Asivail Garcia = Dayan Viciedo? and why would you want two Viciedos?

1:54	Jeff Sullivan: Why did they want the first one? Tools!

1:54	Comment From Max Will the yankees get any help on offense?

1:54	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll try

1:54	Jeff Sullivan: They won’t get anyone amazing

1:54	Comment From Rated Rookie Trade rumors seem like acknowledgement of (a team’s) lack expressed in the shape of ill-fitting non-solutions.

1:55	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve tried to read this like 25 times

1:55	Comment From John Lackeys Mole Jeff, have you done any more research on Jesus Montero’s running time to first base?

1:55	Jeff Sullivan: Since he had knee surgery he’s probably even slower

1:55	Jeff Sullivan: But I haven’t been able to time him because he’s been in the minors because he sucks

1:56	Comment From Izzy What is the chance that Trout has a better year this year than last year?

1:56	Jeff Sullivan: He’s basically set to have an identical season in terms of value. He’s chopped his strikeouts to counteract slightly worse defense

1:57	Comment From parranormal activity Will Towers regret dealing Kennedy within the division, despite the fact that IPK doesn’t really have a role in the Diamondbacks’ future?

1:57	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe once or twice a year, but Kennedy isn’t going to be a thorn in the Diamondbacks’ sides for the next decade

1:57	Comment From Guest Kennedy is a solid #3 pitcher for SD, I guess.

1:58	Jeff Sullivan: On that team right now he might be the ace

1:58	Comment From eduard is there any chance that the rays will aquire an hitter?

1:58	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

1:58

Comment From Roger
I think another reason that no big names are being traded is that some of the mediocre teams that might normally be selling really think that they SHOULD be competing. For instance, the Blue Jays, Yankees (though they’re closer), Angels, Nationals, and Phillies. Teams if their positions in past might might all have been sellers.

1:59	Jeff Sullivan: And it’s so easy to think of yourself as a contender in the next season. Teams don’t want to admit that they’re sellers, and there isn’t that much out there to get, since teams also are reluctant to trade big prospect talent

1:59	Comment From jj how long can the Sox wait to call up Bogaerts??

1:59	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty long

1:59	Comment From J If you were to pick one pitcher to start a franchise, is there a better pick than Felix?

2:00	Jeff Sullivan: Harvey, maybe Kershaw

2:00	Comment From Bo In theory, would Garza be a definite upgrade in Atlanta?

2:00	Jeff Sullivan: Garza would be a definite upgrade for pretty much every team

2:00	Comment From Sam Would getting a shortstop like Aybar or Alexei be worthwhile for the Cardinals?

2:00	Jeff Sullivan: Cop-out answer but, yeah, depending on price

2:00	Comment From Michy What exactly is the point of the Mets keeping Marlon Byrd? Finishing with 1-2 more wins and them seeing him walk in FA for nothing, kind of like 2012 Scott Hairston? Don’t understand how nothing/1-2 more 2013 wins >>> fringe prospect or two.

2:02

Jeff Sullivan: There’s some kind of value in finishing better than you would otherwise, so it’s not a choice between something and nothing. If the best that’s out there is a long-shot low-level prospect, is that *really* better than hanging on? I don’t know the answer to that but I know it isn’t that simple

2:02	Comment From Matt Why is everyone so down on Morse? As a RH bat with incredible pop, he could help as at least a part timer. Defense in the OF is terrible, but he’s not the worst at first.

2:03	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t field, can’t run, can’t walk, can’t stay healthy. He makes sense as a cheap upgrade for a bench, but he’s not a solution and he might not be as cheap as he ought to be

2:03	Comment From Hiya Travis Snider- 3rd team in three years?

2:03	Jeff Sullivan: Not very good

2:03	Comment From The Oberamtmann What will the Yanks do? What should they do?

2:03	Jeff Sullivan: Try to get a 3B/try to get a 3B. Because they’re the Yankees, they can’t sell, but there’s not much in the way of additions out there for them

2:04	Comment From Guest Any word on the Dodgers?

2:04	Jeff Sullivan: They’re good and pretty well set

2:04	Comment From Alex If they keep Bogaerts at short, when do you think he comes up?

2:04	Jeff Sullivan: Next year

2:04	Comment From Guest would justin smoak make sense for the yankees (solid defense, maybe some offensive upside)? if so, what do they need to give up for him?

2:05	Jeff Sullivan: That would be interesting, but he’s not much better than what they have in the short-term, and the Mariners probably value him more than they ought to at this moment

2:05	Eno Sarris: I don’t know how else to tell Jeff Sullivan I am here and that he did a great job and I love him.

2:06	Jeff Sullivan: Eno is here!

2:06	Jeff Sullivan: Which means I won’t be, soon!

2:06	Eno Sarris: Jeff is great!

2:06	Jeff Sullivan: Eno is flattering!

2:06	Comment From KevinM Eno Sarris. Eno Sarris. Eno Sarris.

2:06	Eno Sarris: awww

2:06	Comment From Stephen Is Michael Young really an option for Boston at third?

2:06	Comment From Stephen Could Beane be flipping Callaspo to Boston?

2:06	Jeff Sullivan: Would be creative but I don’t see it happening

2:06	Comment From ar why is the price higher in the winter?

2:07	Jeff Sullivan: More teams involved

2:07	Comment From Frank You don’t think Boston might try Bogaerts at 3B for the rest of the season and then move him back to SS next year?

2:07	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ve probably talked about it but I don’t think they’re going to do it. Maybe in September if things don’t go well in August

2:08	Comment From Mark Why does it seem like most trades are right on the day of the deadline or near it? Are team

2:08	Comment From Mark s just procastinators?

2:08	Jeff Sullivan: Teams have to finally stop bullshitting

2:08	Comment From parranormal activity twitter says matt stites is the AA pitcher in the padres-diamondbacks deal

2:08	Comment From Puckryan Royals making a run at anyone now that they’re on this mini hot streak??

2:08	Jeff Sullivan: Standing pat

2:08	Comment From XB Is Bogaerts at 3B for the rest of the season not the best option? Will it stunt his development that much?

2:09	Jeff Sullivan: Only five games of experience at third. Might not be quite ready for that

2:10	Comment From Ken Can you explain why you think Loria would get more for Stanton in the winter as opposed to now? More teams would be in the running in the winter?

2:10	Jeff Sullivan: More teams involved, injury troubles further behind him (hopefully)

2:10	Comment From Dominic Thoughts on Walker’s tweet?

2:11	Jeff Sullivan: https://twitter.com/tai_walker/status/362625344219525120

2:11	Jeff Sullivan: SPECULATE

2:11

Comment From Roger
You can’t say that Trout’s defense is worth this year, because UZR isn’t that reliable in 1-year samples. Some day people will understand that you need at least 2, preferably 3 years of data to look at UZR. And some day fangraphs will stop using partial- and single-season UZR in WAR calculations.

2:11	Jeff Sullivan: And maybe I’m not just basing it off of UZR

2:11	Comment From Max Nathan for Ethier. Fair or not?

2:11	Jeff Sullivan: Would be silly for Texas without the Dodgers covering a lot of money

2:12	Jeff Sullivan: Eno, you there?

2:12	Eno Sarris: Yes. Tag?

2:12	Jeff Sullivan: I’m off! Looks like Kennedy stuff to tackle.

2:12	Eno Sarris: whohoo. cents on the dollar!

2:12	Jeff Sullivan: Good luck, Eno! Treat him kindly folks!

2:12	Comment From Meano Eno ENOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

2:12	Eno Sarris: looks like they ready

2:13	Jeff Sullivan: Thanks Eno bye Eno bye guys!

2:13	Comment From Dan Eno Thoughts on Juan Largaras? Flash in the pan or here to stay?

2:13	Eno Sarris: Worried about the plate discipline. Looks like D is good. The team needs outfielders, so he’ll factor in no matter what.

2:13	Comment From DC I like Bowden’s articles but I can’t believe he ever ran a baseball team. His trade ideas are pretty bad but atleast he has an inside scoop.

2:14	Eno Sarris: He said today that Iglesias is good but doesn’t have range and I was surprised, hadn’t heard that before.

2:14	Comment From The TMLJ Bedard just got scratched for today. Who knows?

2:14	Eno Sarris: wouldn’t take much

2:14	Comment From Meano Eno Eno, are you chatting tomorrow too or is this it?

2:14	Eno Sarris: tomorrow too, more fantasy then.

2:14	Comment From Aaron Some people didn’t think Machado would be ready for 3b

2:14	Eno Sarris: I think if you can handle short, third is easier, why not. But I do think Young ends up there. Or Middlebrooks.

2:14	Comment From Hiya Cardinals announce Shane Robinson to the DL.

2:15	Eno Sarris: And Molina. Maybe they do a trade with the Marlins for fill in the gap pieces.

2:15	Comment From Roger Fair enough if you aren’t using UZR. But someone please tell whoever can do something about it to stop using UZR in partial-season WAR calculations.

2:15	Eno Sarris: All sorts of stats are not reliable in a one-season sample, and yet we cite them all the time.

2:15	Comment From Milhouse Eno, Duda for Every other player in baseball, who says no?

2:15	Eno Sarris: Baseball. Baseball says no.

2:15	Comment From Paulie Would you trade Glen Perkins if you received a B+ starting prospect and another B-level minor leaguer?

2:16	Eno Sarris: He’s under control for another year… But two B prospects would be useful to the Twins. I don’t think they are as close as the Mets, just to use an example.

2:16	Comment From Joe Eno–what will the Rangers do?

2:16	Eno Sarris: Now the rumor is trade Garza I don’t understand. I think they’ll mostly stand pat. Stanton for all the marbles might be a little crazy for them.

2:17	Comment From moot I’m sitting in my cubicle doing no work today, I just alt tab to a random word doc every time someone walks by

2:17	Eno Sarris: WORKING HARD! SO HARD!

2:17	Comment From Jasun Kennedy being dealt would surely mean Cahill will return to the rotation when ready, right? Any roto value ROS for Cahill if so?

2:17	Eno Sarris: Cahill was coming back no matter what. he has fantasy value.

2:17	Comment From Compton Do you see teams improperly utilizing or even neglecting the win curve this time of year?

2:18	Eno Sarris: I’m not sure we know exactly where the win curve sits wrt to the new wild card system and the value of a prospect in the draft changes. A lot is in flux right now.

2:18	Comment From Zach Eno – neither of your comrades would answer my question. You’re my last hope. If you were Dan Duquette today, what would you be doing?

2:19	Eno Sarris: I feel like their biggest need is top of the rotation talent, which is impossible. If they trade for Lee, they get an older top of the rotation guy, and it costs them Gausman or the like. And I love Gausman. Tricky situation.

2:19	Comment From KevinM Yo, Eno! So Rangers have bad offense and a Cruz suspension looming. How desperate do they get for a bat in the next two hours?

2:19	Eno Sarris: Marlon Byrd? Lol.

2:19	Comment From DTSS Why do people get so upset by UZR’s year-to-year fluctuations but not BABIP’s? Both are included in WAR.

2:19	Eno Sarris: is point i make

2:20	Comment From ar hyman says kennedy deal done

2:20	Eno Sarris: um, typo?

2:20	Comment From Chant Eno, Christian Yelich — bad ball park for homers and bad hitting lineup = fewer RBI’s. Worth holding onto?

2:20	Eno Sarris: Also, he’s going to strike out a bit much on his first try at the bigs IMO

2:20	Comment From JT Is Kennedy suddenly a must own now that he’s in Petco?

2:21	Eno Sarris: It does help the homer-happy control artist. Yes, even in ten-teamers, should be owned.

2:21	Comment From Jeff Verlander already has 4 walks in 3 innings today. Will he ever be a top 20 SP again?

2:21	Eno Sarris: I’m going to say yes here. Definitely yes. Sometimes innings creep up on pitchers that pitch the postseason. See Cain, Matt.

2:22	Comment From Ruki Motomiya Will the Cardinals try to get someone to stopgap in injured Molina’s place?

2:22	Eno Sarris: They saying no. But they have a ton of pitching.

2:22	Comment From Marty In one or two sentences, can you convince me why it’s a good idea for a non-playoff bound team to keep any bullpen arm in demand?

2:23

Eno Sarris: I don’t get it, but I’ve been arguing with the other side and mostly the idea is that some teams need to build towards respectability. That can have an effect on offseason free agent negotiations, for example. Also, if you don’t take JUST ANYTHING for a player, it gives you more leverage in future trade negotiations. I still think I’d be closer to ‘trade the sucker’ than some people.

2:23	Comment From AJT So any reason Towers is trading Kennedy to the Padres for a reliever and some other small pieces?

2:23	Eno Sarris: Must like the prospect. Also: he’s unafraid to trade guys away that he doesn’t like for whatever reason. Don’t mean personally, just mean, look what he did with Bauer.

2:24	Comment From Bob What are the chances the Royals do anything to get better? Second base or even a starting pitcher to replace Wade Davis in the rotation would be nice. Really wish KC would’ve jumped in and gone after Kennedy.

2:24	Eno Sarris: Low.

2:24	Comment From Furman I found two 4-packs of Heady Topper hidden in the beer cave of some random deli in Vermont last weekend, while on vacation. That is all.

2:24	Eno Sarris: IM LOOKING OVER A FOUR LEAF CLOVER THAT I OVERLOOKED BEFOOOOOOOOOORE

2:24	Comment From F U Jobu Now that the A’s have given Freiman the 1B job, is that an indication that they see him as a long term investment or that Moss couldn’t handle it and they would like to upgrade?

2:25	Eno Sarris: Wait is this a thing? I’ve seen Moss playing, like yesterday. Freiman seems more suited to platooning.

2:25	Comment From Kate The rumour is that the Rangers “listen on anyone”…so…

2:25	Eno Sarris: Exactly. And somehow that turns into specific names.

2:25	Comment From Joe Avisail Garcia? Your thoughts…

2:26	Eno Sarris: I don’t get it. Bad plate discipline, too many Ks, maybe he can CF but I doubt it, and people talking about his wiry power… so far he’s been about average in ISO at every stop. Ask a scout, I guess.

2:26	Comment From Meano Eno As the resident name-pronouncing expert, how does one pronounce “Cleuluis”?

2:26	Eno Sarris: clueless, obviously

2:26	Comment From Zocko Who is most likely to be dealt in August?

2:26	Eno Sarris: Kevin Gregg.

2:26	Comment From person hscer If the Nats decided to trade Haren, could they get ANYTHING for him? His xFIP is somehow only 3.87

2:26	Eno Sarris: No, remember the Angels tried this.

2:26	Comment From Matt (Steinway) Eno who is the Mets 1B of the future? D’Arnaud? A middling FA? Think they might try to get a good hitting terrible defense outfielder, maybe like a Matt Holliday?

2:27	Eno Sarris: I think Ike can do an 80% Ryan Howard during peak years.

2:27

Comment From Roger
Other stats are generally unreliable for forecasting true talent, but are at least good at measuring “what happened.” UZR has significant portions of measurement error, which means that it’s even bad at measuring “what happened” without a decent sample. Fundamentally different problem that requires different treatment.

2:27	Eno Sarris: Ah, but the idea of WAR is to get D in there, and all D stats are flawed. So, you might have noticed, FG is about getting the best of what’s there out to people, free. And then we work hard at refining.

2:27	Comment From Anthony As of tomorrow, the Pirates starting RF is . . .

2:28	Eno Sarris: Not Alex Rios.

2:28	Comment From Gila Monster Local sports talk radio just dropped Dave and Jeff’s names and article that Peavy is better deal than Garza. Sorry Eno.

2:28	Eno Sarris: gonna go eat worms.

2:28	Comment From Marty Do you think the Phil’s institutional aversion to advanced metrics neutralizes their ability to adequately value their own pieces from a competitor’s viewpoint?

2:28	Eno Sarris: Yes.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG