2013 Trade Value: #15-#11
Honorable Mentions
#50 to #46
#45 to #41
#40 to #36
#35 to #31
#30 to #26
#25 to #21
#20 to #16
And herein lie the best players in the game. Okay, not all of them, but a good handful of them. These guys are absolutely fantastic players, in the primes of their careers, and signed to deals that are discounts even if they’re not exactly cheap. This is the land of superstars, and the guys who might just lead the league in present value. Their long term value isn’t quite as strong, keeping them out of the top 10, but if you want to win right now, you want one of these five on your team.
#15 Clayton Kershaw (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 25 | 145.1 | 8.61 | 2.17 | 44.8 % | 1.98 | 2.52 | 3.13 | 5.2 | 3.9 |
Under Team Control Through 2014: Arbitration
Even last summer, I would have never considered ranking a player with 1+ year of team control this high. Even as good as Kershaw is, you can only produce so much value in 300 innings. However, with some coaxing from friends within the game, I have become convinced that the a number of clubs place a real value on exclusive negotiating rights to a player who is not set on reaching free agency. And indications are that Kershaw, while looking for a monster extension, is willing to sign a long term deal before testing the market.
Any team trading for Clayton Kershaw wouldn’t be trading for him for just one year. It would be a Johan Santana trade-and-sign situation, and the Dodgers would be compensated in prospects for the buyer’s ability to get Kershaw signed before anyone else could. Essentially, for this kind of player, I have become convinced that the market for their services is not in free agency, but is in the rush to own the rights to extend them, and in Kershaw’s case, the price to acquire those rights would be absurd.
He’s 25, and he’s like a hybrid of Felix Hernandez’s peripherals with Matt Cain’s ability to confound the norms of BABIP and HR/FB rate. There are other excellent pitchers in baseball, but Kershaw has claimed the title of the game’s best pitcher, and he doesn’t look like he’s going to give it up any time soon. If the Dodgers decide not to make him the first $200 million pitcher, you can bet that teams like the Yankees would gladly do so, and there would be enough interest in being the team to pay Kershaw a record contract that the Dodgers would reap the benefits of a serious bidding war.
More likely, though, is that the Dodgers just pay up, because if you’re going to spend $250 million to acquire the core of a disappointing failure, you should probably not then balk at spending $200 million to sign the best pitcher in the sport.
#14 Stephen Strasburg (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 24 | 108.1 | 9.06 | 3.07 | 50.9 % | 2.99 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Under Team Control Through 2016: Arbitration
I’ve alluded many times to the risks of expecting too much long term value from pitchers, even the very best pitchers, and Stephen Strasburg is a prime example of why. He was maybe the best pitching prospect anyone has ever seen. In his rookie season, he posted an xFIP- of 51, which is a Pedro-in-his-prime kind of silly number.
Three years and one surgery later, his xFIP- is 92. He’s still an excellent pitcher, but it’s been awhile since he looked like the best pitcher on the planet. He might not ever look like that again. Pitcher aging curves are probably not curves, but instead, diagonal lines that point downwards. It is likely that Stephen Strasburg peaked in 2010, as a rookie.
All that negativity aside, teams would still be lining up out the door if the Nationals made him available. He’s got three years of team control left at arbitration prices, and the low innings totals and lack of sexy win numbers this year will keep his price reasonable. He still throws 95, gets strikeouts and ground balls, and has an ERA of 2.99. He might be worse, but worse than historically amazing isn’t so bad.
Strasburg is both terrific and kind of disappointing at the same time. Pitchers. Don’t build your franchises around them.
#13 Troy Tulowitzki (SS)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 28 | 265 | 9.4 % | 15.5 % | .332 | .400 | .608 | .425 | 160 | 4.7 | -0.9 | 3.5 |
Under Team Control Through 2021: $16M, $20M, $20M, $20M, $20M, $20M, $14M, $15M option
Let’s just get this out of the way; Troy Tulowitzki is injury prone. The guy spends time on the disabled list every year. This probably isn’t going to change as he gets older and his body starts wearing down even more. But, even with the injuries, Troy Tulowitzki is a tremendous player. Assuming he can rack up a meager +1.5 WAR over the rest of the season, he’ll have posted his fourth +5 WAR season in five years, and he’s in the midst of his best season yet.
Even accounting for Colorado, Tulowitzki is just on another level for offense from the shortstop position, and he can actually play defense too. In terms of pure impact when he’s in the line-up, Tulowitzki is up there with anyone else in the game. The quantity of his playing time is occasionally a problem, but the quality dwarfs those issues.
And the remainder of his contract adds up to $145 million over eight years, assuming they exercise the team in 2021. Think about what Tulo would get as a free agent coming off a 160 wRC+ as a 28-year-old shortstop. We can point to his durability all we want, but we have to remember that Josh Hamilton — not exactly the Iron Horse himself — just got 5/125, and he had a bunch of other red flags too. And he was significantly older. And not a shortstop. And not this good of a hitter.
It might be hard to recalibrate our opinions to see 8/$145 as a massive discount, but in this case, it is. Tulowitzki is that good.
#12 Miguel Cabrera (1B/3B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 30 | 428 | 14.0 % | 15.0 % | .365 | .458 | .674 | .473 | 204 | -11.9 | 0.7 | 6.0 |
Under Team Control Through 2015: $22M, $22M
It would actually be a fascinating experiment to put Cabrera in free agency right now, then limit teams to two year maximum offers, just to see what they kind of value they’d put on that production. I think he might $50 million per year, given the fact that there would be no long term commitment required. Miguel Cabrera is simultaneously one of the highest paid and most underpaid players in the game.
You don’t need me to tell you how ridiculous Cabrera’s numbers are. He’s followed up his MVP season by making last year look like a slump. His teammates might not be living up to the hype, but Cabrera is putting the finishing touches on a Hall of Fame peak by having one of the best offensive seasons of all time.
Cabrera is a monster, and he’s the driving force behind the Tigers chances to win the World Series. They’re not trading him now, and they’re probably not ever trading him. I don’t even know how one would go about trying to make an offer without getting laughed at. Even with a shorter term contract at fairly high prices, Cabrera is still absurdly valuable and one of the closest things MLB has to an untouchable player.
#11 Yadier Molina (C)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 30 | 350 | 6.3 % | 9.4 % | .341 | .386 | .489 | .378 | 145 | 6.1 | -1.5 | 4.2 |
Under Team Control Through 2017: $15M, $15M, $14M, $14M, $15M mutual option
Depending on how much you buy into The Molina Effect on STL’s pitching staff, there’s a case to be made that the Cardinals catcher might just be the best player in baseball. Even with our rudimentary defensive evaluations for backstops, ZIPS and Steamer project him as something like a +6 WAR player over a full season, and that gives him no credit for the non-throwing/blocking parts of his defense. If there’s a player in baseball that is underrated by WAR, it’s Yadier Molina, and WAR thinks Yadier Molina is awesome.
What looked like a shockingly high salary for a defensive specialist now looks like a hilarious underpay for the leading NL MVP candidate. If he’s not the best defensive player, he’s close, and he happens to be putting up a 145 wRC+ this year, which is higher than Mike Piazza’s career wRC+ of 140. I don’t know how long he can keep this up, but Molina is currently in the midst of one of the great stretches of catcher performance in baseball history.
That said, he is 30, and he’s carried an extremely heavy workload throughout his career, and his knees are already starting to hurt. The final four years of his contract take him through his age-34 season, and at some point, his body is going to say enough already. Molina probably won’t be an MVP candidate when this deal ends.
But the present value is just so high that it doesn’t matter much. Every team in baseball — except San Francisco — would tie themselves in knots in order to get him behind the plate, and the Giants might just do it for the fun of having the two best catchers in the game at the same time. Molina is a legitimate difference maker at a position that has few of them.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Trout
Harper
Machado
Harvey
McCutchen
Goldschmidt
Longoria
Posey
Stanton
CarGo????
I doubt Harvey is that high, given what was said about Stras. But that looks like the right 10.
Yeah, it just depends how aggressive you want to be with his projections. I have him 4th, projecting 4 WAR per year for the next 5 years. Considering injury risk and pitcher attrition that may be aggressive.
HArvey is definitely top 5. A power arm with 4 plus pitches? And he’s young and cheap?? It doesnt get more valuable than that. My top 10 would be
1. Harper
2. Trout
3. Machado
4. McCutchen
5. Harvey
6. Longoria
7. Cargo
8. Stanton
9. Posey
10. Goldschmidt
I’m pretty stunned that Carlos Santana isn’t on this list.
Carlos Santana is on the list at #39.
Oye como va!!
Yeah I mentioned yesterday that there is going to be one surprising name missing, whether it be Molina or Gio Gonzalez. This list rules out Molina, so maybe Gio didn’t make it? Otherwise I can’t figure who he’d bump from that top 10. CarGo has to be on there given the monstrous season and good contract that buys out his prime. Yet how does Gio not even crack the top 50 with his contract? Weird.
I just realized Derek Holland didn’t make it either (see honorable mention post), has a similar and slightly cheaper contract, and would probably fall in the same class as Holland as a “not-quite-elite pitcher.” I guess that explains that.
My guess (in order, 1-10): Trout, Harper, Machado, McCutchen, Goldschmidt, Longoria, Gonzalez, Posey, Stanton, Harvey.
I’m not gonna attempt to guess all 10, but I’d assume Bumgarner is up there. He’s on a ridiculously team friendly deal, isn’t even 24 yet, and is quickly taking over the title of ace of the Giants staff.
Bumgarner was in a post yesterday.
Scratch that, I missed that he was on yesterday.
Dave’s already said in chats that Machado is not #3.
what Lori explained I’m taken by surprise that a mom can get paid $7031 in one month on the internet. did you see this web site>www.Bar40.com
I’m reminded of this classic FJM piece:
http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2007/06/firewhoever-this-is.html
Seriously, who saw the current version of Yadier Molina coming?
My favorite part is his tongue in cheek list has two all-star players on it.
It’s going to be so gratifying when Yadier Molina gets busted for adderall…you heard it here first…
Why, exactly, would that be gratifying?
As a Mets fan, he’s my least favorite player in the MLB.
Also, the gains offensively that he’s made aren’t statistically supported and compare very similarly to those Carlos Ruiz made while on the drug. So it would be gratifying for two reasons: 1) I don’t like the guy. 2) Because I’m the first that I know of to make the connection.
I’m a Nats fan and I wouldn’t find it gratifying in the least. He’s an amazing player. I’d rather his greatness was real than a chemical mirage because I’d like to believe that people can become that great when they combine tremendous talent with tons of hard work and willpower. Even if it cost my team a chance at the World Series last year. The world is a better and more interesting place when it contains people as amazingly skilled as Yadier Molina.
of course Ruiz did it on the backside of his physical prime while Yadi is right in the middle of his
It’s going to be so gratifying when Andrew gets busted for [insert despicable crime here]…you heard it here first…
Now when Andrew gets busted, it’ll be gratifying for two reasons: 1) I don’t like the guy. 2) Because I’m the first that I know of to make the connection.
I am so smart.
S M R T
Yeah, I can’t imagine any great player I’d want to see removed from the game, even on my most hated team.
Baseball fan first. Team fan second.
Yeah that’s a little… mean-spirited.
The game is better when its best players are playing.
It’s going to be so gratifying when, one day, douchebags will no longer be able hide behind anonymous screen names in order to make unsupported accusations.
There are plenty of people doing it using their full names, unfortunately. Being a professional sportswriter apparently doesn’t make one immune to making accusations like this.
I agree. So, what’s your plan for dismantling the Internet?
Any website that uses facebook commenting doesn’t deter people from showing their true colors.
Humanity can be awful.
And hopefully, last.
Yadier Molina?????? NO way he has the 11th highest trade value in MLB. I can’t imagine any argument that says he is the best player in baseball.
I’d say producing 10.5 WAR over his last 913 PA, being extremely durable, and under contract for 4 more years at only 61 million makes him pretty darn valuable. On a rate basis I can find only Trout, Puig and Posey who have produced at a higher rate.
You’d have to give him tons of points for pitch-calling and pitch-framing, but there’s a case. More to the point, he’s an MVP-level player at a position where many teams struggle to even find a legitimate starter.
Somehow Jake Westbrook is a legitamitely good starting pitching option. If you want to claim that’s because of his talent, good luck to you!
His offense has become elite and his defense is already acknowledged to be elite. What more do you want? He probably got bumped a few points because Cardinals pitchers always do worse when they leave the Cardinals.
Well said!
I’d bet Dave has him ranked here, not really considering any of his intangibles, such as pitch calling and framing. What we do know about Molina’s offense, defense and contract is enough. The other stuff would only improve his case further.
Molina is Awesome with a capital “A,” but I’m willing to bet the BABiP comes back down to the .310 range the rest of the season. The ZIPS line the rest of the way looks about right. While that is legitimately awesome, it isn’t Buster Posey awesome–it’s more like Brian McCann territory, and that’s a pretty big difference (even though I love McCann).
He might be a top 15 player in the NL on present value/true-talent, but any GM who would bet on him as the 11th most valuable trade candidate (i.e. future value) is nuts in my opinion.
JT, the case is that he’s an excellent pitch-caller and pitch-framer, and since right now we don’t have good metrics to accurately value those skills, it is POSSIBLE that their value is actually enormous.
A) we have estimates of pitch framing already. They say Yadi’s been about 1 win per year with his glove.
B) “it’s possible” is not actually an argument. It’s also possible that Derek Jeter is not a douchebag, but I wouldn’t make that argument. Lack of evidence is not the same thing as evidence.
>>I can’t imagine any argument that says he is the best player in baseball.
Dave just made one. You don’t have to agree with it, but he did just make one.
You’re nuts and clearly don’t watch baseball.
After the mountain of evidence presented to JT, I’m reminded of the following…
“All right, but apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?!”
LOL old catcher getting overpaid a crazy amount at #11 but young CF getting paid way less who can hit and is best defensive CF in baseball outside Gomez (Revere) can’t even crack the Just Missed list.
And now not one Phillie makes the list. And you’re gonna tell me there’s no bias…
Obviously I’m making the assumption that WAR is useful, but Ben Revere has produced 3.9 WAR over his last 889 PA. So 6.6 WAR less than Molina over essentially the same PA span. Revere is more cost-controlled than Molina (a lot)….but considering 3.3 WAR per year is worth 16-18 million, I think Molina is the far more valuable asset.
do you really think Dave Cameron really cares about what team has how many players make the list?
Only when the seamen are involved
Everyone likes to see sacks packed with Seamen…Mariners.
The bias is that the Phillies are awful
And the MLB bias that nobody actually wants to trade for any of their players. Must be collusion!
Look, let’s be fair, at least 4 or 5 teams would trade for Howard if the Phillies picked up 95% of his contract as part of the deal.
Not awful, just overpaid.
Utley & Lee are still good players.
yes, it’s an important distinction. And it’s interesting how Dave has decided to parse that. Mostly he’s been valuing players in a complete vacuum. However, he doesn’t skew a bit towards the elite players, who would help a team win NOW. So it’s not pure surplus value in a vacuum. There’s an acknowledgement that players like Kershaw, Miggy and Bautista are worth more because of their high present value.
Scott: That’s why it’s about current trade value. That’s the point.
It’s looking more and more like the Phillies actually listen to their fans when making personnel decisions.
Yes, Revere “can hit.” Everyone in MLB can hit. Molina can hit a lot better than Revere can. So can pretty much all the non-pitchers in this countdown.
you know what i meant. you sound like a lawyer.
I’m not, just someone who understands why Ben Revere is not one of the 75 or so most valuable trade assets in MLB. Maybe one day you will be too.
The lawyerly part was him being generous to you. Ben Revere has a career .291 wOBA. His highest single-season wOBA is .305. He is a bad major-league hitter. You are a sub-replacement-level commenter.
“the lawyerly part was him being generous to you” lol what lawyers do you know
Just me and all my colleagues, I guess. Oh, and law school classmates.
Just to clarify it for you, Chris, the part that was lawyerly was not the generosity, it was the careful choosing of words.
Revere is zero power guy with speed that can hit for average and nothing else. His defense and speed are his best asset. He’s a valuable player for just about any team, but not in the top of baseball.
at first, I couldn’t tell if your little schtick here was real or tongue-in-cheek. “This has to be sarcastic,” I said to myself. Now you’re either serious, which indicates a complete lack of any grasp of actual baseball, or you’re the most annoying troll on the Internet.
Either way, read more and comment less.
Well this Phillies thing has certainly run its course.
I am not sure how many times Dave can say this: this is series is about how the current market values players. Ben Revere was traded 6 months ago for Vance Worley. Now it appears the Twins overvalued Vance Worley, but still…it’s VANCE WORLEY. Before you complain that Ben Revere has any more trade value than the remaining guys on the list, ask yourself this: if your Phillies had said player (Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Harvey, etc.) what are the odds you would be happy if he was traded for VANCE WORLEY? If the answer is not very, then that person has more trade value than Ben Revere.
OMG can you people stop making the Vance Worley argument? It makes NO SENSE.
Think of it this way: let’s say you think Yadier Molina is more valuable than Ben Revere and that Vance Worley is more valuable than Mike Nickeas. Let’s say, for some reason, Yadier Molina is traded for Mike Nickeas.
THAT DOES NOT MAKE REVERE’S TRADE VALUE HIGHER. What GM’s have gotten for players on the open market is a proxy for their trade value, but let’s not make it out as if you take the player return from said trade and all of a sudden you have trade value. GM’s can be fleeced. This is a dumb argument.
Anytime you want to make your own case for why a guy with 45 career extra base hits in 1400 PAs, and below average OBP skills (especially for a leadoff hitter) deserves to be on this list, I’m sure the rest of us would love to hear it.
it’s true you can’t just say Vance Worley and be done. However, the fact that Revere was traded for Worley is data that can’t be ignored. Maybe Amaro was an absolute genius and Ryan(?) was an idiot. But it’s still data.
Also, let’s not forget this Vance Worley who had xFIP’s of 3.32 and 3.85 coming into the season, so even if you use the trade as data you can’t just say WORLEY! because his post-trade numbers are pretty irrelevant (given that his dropoff was so dramatic)
It makes all the sense.
I think you need to look up the definition of the word “proxy”…
Agreed. And the Phillies are really bad because of all the bias the other teams and baseball have against them.
The Phillies have a .500 record at the moment. They’re not “really bad”. The Marlins are really bad. The Astros are really bad. The Phillies are an average team at a well above average price. The Phillies are getting older and will be worse next year. But they are not a really bad team.
The Fightin’s are really bad relative to their team payroll.
They are bad considering the investment and expectations from management, but not a bad team overall. But they are definitely not a good team. We can absolutely say “Phillies: Not good”
How is Molina overpaid? He’s on pace for his second straight 6+ win season and third straight 4+ win season, and all of that might be under-selling him a bit with regards to non-throwing/blocking catching abilities that FG doesn’t measure. He’s getting paid like a 2.5 to 3 win player.
The Ben Revere stuff is more laughable; he has a career 81 wRC+ with highly questionable defense in CF (-9 DRS, +3 UZR/150). Steamer and ZiPS have him finishing around 600 PA this season and not even cracking the 2-win mark. Give me a break.
I mean, Revere was a 3 WAR player last year mostly due to his defense, which UZR loved. And we all know that outfielders often have a negative spike in their UZR’s after moving to a different ballpark, so once Revere gets used to the more spacious centerfield in Philly you’ll probably see his UZR regress closer to his career average, which even if not at 10+/150 would still make him a surefire above average player at even 5/150.
But also, YOU CAN’T FORGET THE EYES AND WHAT SCOUTS SAY. They rave about this kid’s speed! He’s so fast out there! He’s basically like Gomez except the power hasn’t come yet!!! It will!
Chris:
I think people are unfairly ganging up on you. Allow me to help clarify your point.
*Ahem*
Ben Revere is fast. Players who are fast have “Speed.” Speed never slumps. Players who never slump are always on a hot streak. Players who are always on a hot streak are always hitting really well. Players who always hit really well are the best in the game. Players who are the best in the game have the highest trade value. Therefore Ben Revere has the highest trade value.
Hope that helps clear things up!!
“I mean, Revere was a 3 WAR player last year mostly due to his defense, which UZR loved.”
That’s defense in an outfield corner, though. He was +11 DRS, +15.4 UZR in RF last season, which is where ~70% of his playing time went. In CF he was -3 and -1.4, respectively. This year, in CF, he’s at -5 and -1.9, respectively.
People who say that Ben Revere will develop power likely have never seen Ben Revere swing. Give him an aluminum bat and he still doesn’t crack 20.
So Dave has a anti-Phillie bias. Apparently everybody else reading this does also. You are brave!
Lol wtf universe is Ben Revere HALF as good as you’re suggesting: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4712&position=OF
He’s a two tool player. He’s rangey in CF but has a noodle arm. He makes solid contact but has Juan Pierre power and f***ing 4% walk rate, lol. He sprays singles around, but somehow still fails to get on base at a decent rate. Who wants a sub-.340 OBP player at leadoff? The Phillies, I guess.
It’s not my fault they bat him leadoff. My Phillies order would go:
SS Rollins
3B Michael Young
1B Ryan Howard
C Carlos Ruiz
2B Chase Utley (so as to go S-R-L-R-L)
CF Ben Revere
RF Dominic Brown
LF John Mayberry Jr. (COMPLETELY UNDERRATED: SURREAL POWER POTENTIAL)
Any lineup that has Michael Young batting second cannot be taken seriously
Oh, and now the anti-Michael Young bias too?! What?! The guy is hitting .288 with FANTASTIC DEFENSE! It’s not his fault Cole Hamels decided to bomb! It’s not his fault Dom Brown takes too many pitches!
A .288 hitter can’t even hit second anymore? Go watch some Cricket
I’m still trying to get used to a lineup that has the team’s best hitter (130 OPS+) hitting 7th. Weird.
He is a slightly above-average hitter who plays terrible defense (as any defensive metric or non-biased eye test would tell you). That adds up to a slightly above-replacement player.
Keep being silly and playing the martyr card, though. It’s lots of fun for everyone here to see what irrational thing to will say next.
Mentioning Young’s excellent defense and Dom Brown’s patience in the same post? Then following it up with “go watch some cricket”? This is quite the troll. And somehow, you managed to get most people on here to take you seriously and derail the comments section despite these obvious over-the-top comments. I want to be angry, but I’m really just impressed.
John Mayberry is 29. Past the age of having surreal potential.
Regardless of what order you choose to stack your teams scrap heap, I feel bad that you have to regularly watch that lineup.
I really like how when you got mad at Joe, your screen name changed from Chris to CHRIS.
Jesus. You’re saying a player who you would bat *seventh* belongs on this list?
I’m an ENORMOUS Phillies’ fan – much to my own dismay – but, damn. Even I know they don’t have anyone that belongs near this list.
Also, Dee Gordon’s just as fast as Ben Revere. I guess he should be on here too.
I also love that you have a guy who you describe as COMPLETELY UNDERRATED:SURREAL POWER POTENTIAL batting 8th and the second best hitter on the team so far this year batting 7th,and the “super valuable” Ben Revere batting 6th . Every time you open your mouth Chris,you shove your foot into it .
So your player who deserves to be #11 overall should be the #6 batter on a mediocre team?
Don’t be discouraged. Being bi-polar can be treated with drugs.
Juan Pierre has hit a HR, in fact, he’s hit 18. Ben Revere does not have Juan Pierre Power.
Touche!
My thumb is sore from down-voting every one of Chris’s posts.
I don’t think you’re actually supposed to use your thumb
Great, now I’m imagining Roman emperors listening to FanGraphs commenters arguing about the Phillies in the Colosseum.
If it helps, Well-Cidered Canadian, that whole thumbs up or down thing is a myth. It was based on a Medieval or Renaissance painting.
How in the world is it possible that people are still responding to his arguments as if they were serious, honest (not trolling) arguments? Is everyone here new to the internet? This guy is not even subtle at all.
Exactly. It’s amazing. People are not always serious on the internets.
Oh there’s bias but you can most likely find it in the mirror.
Man, you guys get so excited about feeding trolls. Made it way too easy for Chris.
I must say, you are a master ruseman. I don’t know how anyone can not realize you are trolling them.
I’m probably on this list.
Ben Revere has a -2 URZ this year. And he WAS traded, for Vance Worley and Trevor May. Are Vance Worley and Trevor May worth Yadier Molina?
Tr0ll hard homie
So it’s looking like Gio Gonzalez might not make the list and I can’t see how that’s possible. Given his durability, track record, elite ability, and cheap contract, I cannot imagine him missing the top 50. But I also wouldn’t expect him in the top 10. If he really is off the list entirely, could you please address this, Dave?
Otherwise, I just gotta assume he’s #10 on the list and somehow the second most valuable pitcher in the game.
Gio is a tough bet to make the top 10, but then I agree it’s curious that he missed the top 50 completely. He’s put up 6.6 WAR over his last 318 IP, and is owed 44M over the next 4 years. Seems pretty valuable….prolly more than Beltre, Price, Heyward, Samardzija. I’d peg him in the 40-50 range, so not having him on the list isn’t a big deal.
I am very surprised he didn’t end up somewhere between 35 and 15. Cameron mentioned Jordan Zimmermann as having just barely missed the top 50 and he’s a similarly skilled pitcher on the same team with fewer years left before he’s a free agent. I have to imagine that Dave would have mentioned Gio in his just-missed article if he wasn’t going to make the list. He’s gotta be 10th.
It’s very unlikely that he moved up 11 spots while getting a year closer to being out of team control. And if you look at the first comment in this thread, each of the ten players named clearly has more trade value than Gio. So it looks almost certain that he did miss the list.
That’s a fair point, Anon21, but it seems really strange that he’d drop off the list entirely after putting up a career year. I’d really like to hear Dave Cameron’s thinking on the matter.
Gio is not top ten. Its most likely an oversight that he wasn’t listed in the just missed article. It is still surprising that he isn’t at least top 50.
In the Honorable Mentions article, possible looming BioGenesis-related suspensions are mentioned as part of the thinking behind this list.
Gio’s been pretty explicitly cleared of BioGenesis stuff and the Nationals have been told that he’s no longer under investigation.
I think it was probably an oversight that Gio wasn’t on the just missed list.
He had a great year last year, but that was based on a 5.8% HR/FB rate. He had a 3.50 xFIP last year, and is pretty much the same this year.
Last year he had a very good (5 win year) based in part on a previously not shown ability to be better than Matt Cain on suppressing homers.
If Gio is truly a 3-3.50 ERA guy (based on xFIP), I don’t see him being top 30 valuable. I can’t really quibble if people want him in the 30-50 range, but I am guessing that DC just doesn’t believe Gio’s performance is “elite AND sustainable”.
No list is perfect, and this isn’t likely, but perhaps… biogenesis?
Gio Gonzalez has been exonerated in the press by BioGenesis employees. He’s not connected to PEDs in the documents. He passed a drug test just two days after the accusations came out. And by all accounts, he’s cooperated fully with the investigation. Most sources seem to indicate that he’s clean and will not be suspended.
Thanks for the clarification, I stopped following that whole thing … will wait for the big bang/whimper.
I think that it’s too early to say anyone’s cleared in the Biogenesis drama until mlb announces suspensions and releases the evidence they have. Just b/c the media may have reported that Gio has been cleared doesn’t make it true until we know what mlb actually has.
A 3.5 BB/9 rate doesn’t seem all that elite to me. And that’s the career low for Gio. Only a couple of years ago it was floating around 4+. The only pitcher in this top 50 list who is worse than Gio in BB/9 is Matt Moore who is 4 years younger and more cost controlled.
The problem with BB/9’s of 3.5 and 4 is that the K’s look inflated because they have more opportunities for K’s.
FWIW, I would have left Moore off the list, too.
“FWIW, I would have left Moore off the list, too.”
Interesting, and I get what you mean. I would have to think about it but he’s so young and cheap and the talent is there…. I’d have to think more than 20 teams would take him in a second.
In a couple years of not figuring out his control, however…
I am a tinfoil hat-wearing Rockies fan who often thinks writers don’t give my team any respect (including FanGraphs writers… I am still not over the piece from like three years ago that said the Helton contract had been a horrible failure; a mild disappointment perhaps, but whoever wrote that took things way too far). Anyways, I am happy to say that I think this is a very fair ranking for Tulo. Maybe a little high.
I’ll be back to my normal angry you-know-what org comments next week I’m sure.
Tulo is such a tough rank because he’s injury prone. In spite of playing fewer IP, he still outperforms most hitter. It’s really impressive.
It was exciting to see Eddie Butler make Cistulli’s Fringe Five this week, as well.
It’s not an egregious overrank, but given the injuries, I’m not buying Tulo as the 13th most valuable player in baseball when he’s tied to a 145 million dollar contract. Any player that is tied to that much money is one major injury away from completely decimating a small market team’s chances for nearly a decade. For a guy with his injury history, that’s just too much risk.
Indeed. Sad, too.
I think you’re overstating the risk. Career ending injuries to non-pitchers are beyond rare. When’s the last time one happened? I can’t even think of one offhand. It’s not like he could need Tommy John and never be the same again, or tear an ACL and never be the same again like some NBA and NFL players.
The worst thing that could happen to him is to keep missing 50-100 games a year. That would be awful, and his recent injury history is worrisome, but it’s almost certainly not going to happen. Two of his major injuries have been freaky, likely non-repeatable ones (quad injury sustained while slamming a bat in the dugout, 2008 and HBP injury, 2010). The groin (2012) and the rib (2013) are scarier, but still. I think it’s a pretty overdramatic to say he’s one injury away from devastating Colorado’s finances for a decade. It’s more like, over the course of the next eight seasons, he’s three or four season-ending injuries away from not living up to the contract.
By focusing exclusively on injuries that would physically keep him off the field permanently, you are ignoring the potential that a major injury permanently affects his performance. There are tons of examples where a player was never the same after he suffered a severe injury in the prime of his career. In about 30 seconds of time, Ken Griffey Jr, Chase Utley, Eric Davis, Bo Jackson, Mo Vaughn all come to mind.
Show me on the TODD HELTON DOLL
Show me on the TODD HELTON DOLL where they touched you..
Are people just trolling by constantly mentioning Ben Revere? I hope they are.
look how many responses he always gets. why would he stop?
Ugh you have no idea how baseball works do you
Yes, Chris is just trolling but unfortunately most people on here are oblivious to it and keep feeding him.
Sometimes people know a troll is trolling, but troll-bashing is fun.
Paul Revere was an 80 grade silversmith.
He was also an elite bell-ringer. Highly regarded prospect, drafted by Christ Church when he was only 13.
“Strasburg is both terrific and kind of disappointing at the same time. Pitchers. Don’t build your franchises around them.”
Word. There is much insight in these articles about the building of teams, Dave. Well done.
I thought Dave undersold Strasburg’s elite ability and ace status in his write-up, but number 14 seems very accurate. Strasburg is really, really great and, if healthy, still on pace for a HoF career. He had one miserable start this year, but other than that, he’s pitched as well as ever in terms of run prevention. He just hasn’t struck out quite as many as before and he’s gotten very little run support.
Strasburg’s a great player to build a franchise around, but you always need more than one player. He certainly helped his team make it to the playoffs last year – the Nats won a number of games in very large part due to his pitching. They probably wouldn’t have won the division if it weren’t for him. Even with the shutdown, that’s pretty good.
Tim Lincecum. That’s all you need to think of. Back to back Cy Youngs in his second and third seasons and now he looks a shadow of his former self. How would you feel if you had traded two blue chip prospects for Lincecum 2-3 years ago?
I didn’t say anything was guaranteed or even likely. But he’s as much on pace for a Hall career as anyone else his age. That’s all I’m saying. There have been a number of hitters who turned out to be busts as well. But yes, pitchers tend to be less reliable. And he still needs to put up a couple Cy Young seasons.
I would feel sad. And possibly angry. Definitely morose.
Considering this is the hardest he’ll ever throw, you definitely cannot say he’s on pace for a hall of fame career. You’ll have a hard time finding a hall-of-famer who have never put up a 7 win season, and right now Strasburg is like a 5-win player if you assume that his strikeouts will jump back up after this year’s career low. He also turns 25 tomorrow, so if he’s going to put up a hall of fame peak, he had better get started.
His only other chance is to accumulate a ton of value over a long career of being excellent but not elite. He has 7.8/9.3 (RA/9 WAR / fWAR) wins accumulated before turning 25. For reference, Felix has 28.2/24.6 and Kershaw has 25.6/21.9. And neither Kershaw nor Felix have had quite HOF peaks so far.
That’s bullshit. Everybody knows that you should tie up the majority of your payroll in an otherworldly rotation.
Dave Cameron actually did make the comment you quoted. And another FanGraphs writer, coincidentally also named Dave Cameron, praised the Felix Hernandez extension.
I’d love to see a debate between those two.
That would be crazy to see miggy get a 2/100 deal. Lets make it happen
Does anyone know if you put Cabrera at DH and adjusted his positional value what his WAR would be? First base?
About the same, probably slightly lower as of now. His average FLD+POS was like -14 while at 1B and he is at -10 right now, so he wouldn’t get a huge boost from better fielding to make up from losing about half a win or so from positional adjustments. Then again, at the end of the season it may be a larger gap as his FLD+POS becomes more negative and the positional adjustment widens. At DH, the positional adjustment would be even larger
Dave said in his chat the other day that his WAR would go down if he was a DH but did not mention how much. 1B is harder, because he would still be a bad defender, just not at quite so costly a position. Would he be Prince bad or Ryan Howard bad?
Well Cabrera was constantly in the -5 UZR range for 1B, which isn’t a disaster, but his FLD+POS was -19.4, -6.7, -16.4, and -16.8 from ’08-’11
Seeing as he became a bit more nimble to deal with 3B, I’d have to assume he’d be a better 1B now than before when he basically punted playing the position. To think he’d be worse than Prince or Howard is impossible for me. Those two would be unwatchable playing third.
Considering Howard is a left-handed thrower, I imagine he’d be especially watchable at third… if you enjoy watching defensive futility (I do).
I still think Tulo is overrated. He’s a great player, the best SS in the game but his injury history is pretty scary. He kind of reminds me of Nomar who was essentially done at age 30 due to chronic injuries.
Its pretty hard to be overrated when you are the best SS in MLB even with injuries. He’s tied for the highest WAR right now at SS with Desmond, and their games played are 64 and 94, respectively. That’s insane value
Strasburg peaked as a rookie? THAT’S a scary statement on the reliability of young phenom pitchers.
It is great that Dave is reiterating that spending big money on pitchers is almost always a poor use of that money. Sometimes you’ll hear analysts or talking heads yapping about big contracts for hurlers being “a good investment”, which always seemed to me like an awful metaphor, since pitchers are more like automobiles (which break, deteriorate and lose value) and less like property (which appreciates and gives you a return on what you spent).
“Pitchers. Don’t build your franchises around them.”
I love Dave, and am glad to see him finally admit that the Mariners would have been better off trading Felix than locking him up as the ace of a .500 team for the next several years.
Haha, good point. It’s hard to see Felix’s deal as a bad move considering how durable he’s been, but those big deals to pitchers always look really good when the guy is performing at super-ace level. We have to remind ourselves that even rubber-arms like Felix can take total unexplained nosedives.
I’m curious about the morale cost/motivation of signing Felix, though.
I mean, after Seattle burned Safeco to the ground, what would have looked like the better move?
Agree. There was lots of watercooler talk about how the Mariner management would completely alienate the fanbase by trading Felix, but I can tell you that Bill Bavasi and Jack Z have done a perfectly fine job of that all on their own, w/o bringing Felix into the equation. Nostalgia and the memories of yesteryear might put butts in the seats in towns like Boston or St. Louis but that’s not the case in Seattle; seats have been largely empty for at least the past 5 years, which has spanned most of Felix’ prime.
I just upvoted every post by Chris in this thread, because he trolled you guys so hard it was magnificent.
But Chris was counting on your down-voting! Trolls live on that.
I am really confused now, I went back to the honorable mention, and Gio WAS NOT on the list for dropouts, so that would make him in teh top ten, so that would leave someone out maybe posey? Harvey not making it would be shocking eh who knows.
If Kershaw had already signed a 200m contract, I assume he wouldn’t be on the list at all, DavE?
Can someone please tell me what the difference between Russell Martin and Yadier Molina is?
Martin: age 30.4, career PA 3976, career fWAR 24.3, 2013 fWAR 3.1
Molina: age 31, career PA 4410, career fWAR 27.5, 2013 fWAR, 4.2
On a rate basis the two have been exactly the same over their careers. Before you say “catcher framing”, both players rate about 10 wins above average over their careers:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20596
The only difference between the two players is that Yadier has been better in recent years, while Martin had his best years when he was young, but if Molina has a case for the best player in baseball, than Martin is the most underrated player of all time. His contract situation is even better, as surely he’d get less on the free agent market when his current contract runs up than Yadi has on his deal.
that’s… actually really good insight
Molina was a supremely bad hitter from 04-06, an average hitter from 07-10, and an elite hitter since. So, career-wise, they rate out evenly. Molina’s a lot better defensively, and fWAR-wise, a lot of the difference between the two there is made up in baserunning ability. I think you knew all of this, though.
When it comes to catcher evaluation, I think teams are mostly going to ignore baserunning ability. Defense is first, and while Martin is good, Molina is still way better. Hitting comes second, and at this point, Molina is way better.
I was looking at Martin’s page recently and thought about how disappointing it was that he regressed the way he did, but he’s still around and having a great year this year. It’s a huge stretch to say he’s the most underrated player of all time, though.
Final thought…..
The Dodgers traded Carlos Santana to the Indians in what is seen as a one-sided trade. But 3B Casey Blake filled a hole, and the Dodgers made the playoff’s both times in his first year-and-a-half there, something they may well not have done without him.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are playing AJ Ellis, another catcher from their farm system. Ellis may not hit with as much power as Santana or draw as many walks, but he’s in the ballpark. And when you compare his calling a game, handling a pitching staff, blocking balls and throwing out runners (50%!) to control the running game, there is no comparison to Santana. In 3 years I have never heard an Indians pitcher complement Santana. The Dodgers pitchers compliment Ellis all the time. I don’t know about “trade value”, but I can guarantee you that the Dodgers would not trade AJ Ellis even up for Carlos Santana under any circumstances. Od course, the Dodgers try to win, while the Indians front office is committed to developing players (for other ML teams) and tries to conform to this years sexy stats. Under that lens one can see why Santana is a perfect fit for the Indians and why Ellis is a guy that the Dodgers front office, management coaches and players love and respect.
In the middle of a 3-year peak which Martin has never seen (wWAR as opposed to just cumulative WAR), measured fielding, perceived fielding, perceived game-calling.
Martin’s early career is totally in line with Molina’s peak. WAR already counts fielding, no one gives a shit about wWAR and “percieved value” is bullshit.
Charming. Martin’s best stretch is +12.9, Yadi is +14.8 and counting – half a season to go, and he was +4.2 in the first half. I think that rates to be a significant difference, regarding what we currently measure. And I do think both fans and clubs place assign high value on peak performance relative to cumulative performance, whether they call it wWAR or not. If you think that WAR currently captures everything significant that could be captured about catcher value, well, you’re free to think that too. Even within sabermetrics – as referenced in the OP – I think that would be a serious minority opinion.
I think it’s a contrast worth noting, though. Maybe non-Molina 4+ win catchers are underrated in general. One of the first other guys that came to mind for me was Montero, at least as I perceive him among Diamondback fans (I have family in Scottsdale). But then again, his 5/60 was apparently the largest signing in club history.
So we’re talking a difference of 3-4 wins over 3 years? I don’t think that’s significant. And that’s balanced out by the years Yadi spent below replacement level. If you look at JAWS, the two rate almost identical as well.
I don’t think WAR captures all of a catchers value, but there’s literally zero evidence that Molina is any better in those things than Martin. In the framing studies, both rate about +10 wins over their careers. In the gamecalling studies, Martin actually appears to be significantly better:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16096
But yeah, my general point is not that Yadi is not that good, just that for some reason people assume that he’s amazing at all of those intangible things when in reality his greatest assets (arm and hitting the past couple of years) are easily measurable. And there’s really no evidence that he’s much better a player than guys like Martin, Montero, McCann, Lucroy, yet only Yadi gets in this list out of those guys and gets a mention as potentionally the most valuable player in the game? C’mon now. The perception of Molina in comparison to other catchers has outpaced reality. It’s a natural consquence of a defensive specialist turned stud hitter.
Maybe the Angels haven’t signed Trout due to possible steroids. Has anyone looked at his neck size recently and compared it to pics from 2-3 years ago? How about his forehead bone structure?
So I’m going to start by saying that I’m a Tigers fan and not very familiar with the advanced stats that everyone here is throwing around.
With that being said I would earnestly like for someone here to explain to me (in simple terms) how Cabrera ranks in as #11. Lists like this only reinforce my default belief that WAR and advanced metrics in general are overrated and complicated formulas that obscures the true value of players. (I’m not questioning the validity of WAR so much as stating my opinion of it.)
Perhaps it is the limitation of my own mathematical mind here, but I have a tough time reading the description of Cabrera’s value that the writer provides and then looking over to see that he is only worth 6 games over a replacement.
I’m seriously not trolling or attempting to say that my guy is infallible (he is obviously not great in the field), but is being the best hitter in a generation of baseball players (again, my opinion) really that much less impressive due to lackluster fielding?
I also understand the knock against Cabrera for a lack of speed, but I would argue that his hitting prowess makes up for that as evidenced by his TB and XBH numbers.
Please help me understand why Cabrera consistently seems like the best player in baseball, but I have to hear that he isn’t as valuable as players that no (rational) GM in baseball would trade Cabrera for?
It’s about team control and salary.