2013 Trade Value: The Top 10
Honorable Mentions
#50 to #46
#45 to #41
#40 to #36
#35 to #31
#30 to #26
#25 to #21
#20 to #16
#15 to #11
And now we come to the best of the best. These guys are both the present and the future of the sport. They’re great now, they’re going to be great for a while, and they’re the kinds of players that we’ll be telling our grandkids about.
#10 Carlos Gonzalez (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 27 | 395 | 9.6 % | 26.6 % | .302 | .370 | .610 | .414 | 153 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
Under Team Control Through 2017: $11M, $16M, $17M, $20M
A few years ago, in one of the least prescient things I’ve ever published, I wondered whether the Rockies squandered a lot of money by signing Gonzalez to a seven year, $80 million extension. He was coming off one good year, had been traded multiple times before, didn’t control the strike zone particularly well, and looked like a pretty strong regression candidate.
Gonzalez did regress, but the rest of what I wrote was really wildly wrong. Salaries in baseball have exploded, and at age-27, Gonzalez is once again looking like a superstar. Yeah, Colorado makes his numbers look better, but he’s still running a 153 wRC+ even after we strip out the effects of Coors Field. He still strikes out a lot, but the power has reached a level where they don’t matter so much, and he’s refined the rest of his game to add value even when he’s not hitting the ball over the wall.
Gonzalez only has one more “cheap” year left on the deal before his salaries escalate, but even at an AAV of $16 million per year over the remaining four years on the deal, he’s still a huge bargain. Those four years cover his prime seasons, leaving little chance for dead money, especially given the prices teams are paying for power hitters at this level now. Gonzalez’s inconsistency and injury history makes him imperfect, but he’s still a terrific player signed to a deal that pays him a fraction of his market value.
#9 Paul Goldschmidt (1B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 25 | 406 | 12.1 % | 20.2 % | .313 | .395 | .557 | .405 | 157 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 4.2 |
Under Team Control Through 2019: $1M, $3M, $6M, $9M, $11M, $15M option
A couple of years ago, Goldschmidt was considered something of a fringe prospect, a guy who was interesting but had limited upside. Baseball America never ranked him higher than 11th in the Diamondbacks Top 30, so he wasn’t even considered a premium prospect within their organization, much less baseball overall.
Yeah, I think we missed the boat here. 1,200 plate appearances into his career and Goldschmidt has a 135 wRC+, and he’s athletic enough to add value with both his glove and his legs. If he keeps hitting like he has so far this year, he’s going to get first place MVP votes at the end of the year. Oh, and he’s going to make a million bucks next year.
If the Brewers decision to sign Carlos Gomez this spring was the best decision of the year, extending Goldschmidt before he had this breakout ranks a close second. They now own his rights for six years, and none of the five guaranteed years are going to cost them any real money. Even if Goldschmidt regresses, this is still a pittance for he’s likely to be. And if he doesn’t regress, this might turn into the best contract in baseball.
I don’t know precisely how Goldschmidt went from being a mediocre prospect to an elite hitter, but it happened, and now the Diamondbacks have one of the best first baseman in baseball signed through his age-31 season for just a little bit more than Alex Rodriguez will make this year alone. Buying power on the open market is crazy expensive, but the Diamondbacks aren’t going to have to worry about doing that for a while.
#8 Giancarlo Stanton (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 23 | 224 | 13.4 % | 26.3 % | .250 | .357 | .458 | .357 | 128 | -3.9 | -0.6 | 0.7 |
Under Team Control Through 2016: Arbitration
If David Price is the player on this list most likely to be traded, Stanton isn’t that far behind. The price that the Marlins are able to extract for their star right fielder is going to be fascinating. A couple of months on the DL with a bad knee and the dissipation of an extra year of team control have hurt his value, but he’s still perhaps the game’s most exciting young slugger. He’s 23 and has a career wRC+ of 138. The players who have done what Stanton has done at this age are mostly in the Hall of Fame.
In some ways, his situation is pretty reminiscent of Miguel Cabrera, and not just because they both came up in Miami. Cabrera was absurdly great early, then saw his stock fall slightly as he got closer to free agency and concerns about his durability arose. The Tigers swooped in, signed him to a long term deal, and you know the rest. There’s a real chance that something similar could happen with Stanton.
Yes, right now, he’s only got three years of team control remaining, but a team acquiring him is acquiring him for the right to lock him up, and his cost is going to reflect that right. Franchise players like this aren’t available in their early-20s very often, and even coming off a down year and somewhat concerning knee issues, the price is going to reflect the rarity of a player like this on this on the trade market.
Stanton is going to bring back a mint when the Marlins trade him. The price is probably going to blow us all away.
#7 Matt Harvey (P)
| Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | RA9-WAR | WAR |
| 24 | 130.0 | 10.18 | 1.94 | 45.4 % | 2.35 | 2.17 | 2.70 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
Under Team Control Through 2018: Pre-Arb, Arbitration
Contract included, Matt Harvey is the most valuable pitcher in baseball. Just 24, he’s already turned into a legitimate ace, succeeding in every possible aspect you could think to measure. His velocity is trending up, not down. He doesn’t walk anyone. He strikes out everyone. His FIP is actually better than his ERA, which is hilarious considering that his ERA is 2.35. He’s been better against lefties than righties. He’s efficient. There are no nits to pick here. This is pretty close to the perfect young pitcher season.
But he is still a pitcher, and it could all go terribly wrong tomorrow. Mets fans don’t need a reminder about the risks of young pitching. Baseball fans, really, don’t need that reminder either. Before there was Matt Harvey, there was Stephen Strasburg. Before Strasburg, Mark Prior. Before Prior, Rick Ankiel. Before Ankiel, Dwight Gooden. These stories don’t always end as well as they start. They usually don’t end as well as they start.
But there’s also Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and the rest. Some great young pitchers become great older pitchers. And it’s not like hitters are risk free either, so while Matt Harvey might be peaking right now, every team in baseball would sign up for the right to see if Harvey could be more Kershaw than Prior. It’s basically impossible for a pitcher to have more trade value than Matt Harvey does right now.
#6 Buster Posey (C)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 26 | 367 | 9.5 % | 11.2 % | .325 | .395 | .536 | .398 | 162 | -2.6 | -0.6 | 4.1 |
Under Team Control Through 2022: $11M, $17M, $20M, $21M, $21M, $21M, $21M, $21M, $22M option
Buster Posey has followed up last year’s 163 wRC+ by posting a 162 wRC+ this year. Buster Posey is a catcher. Catchers don’t hit like this. Most first baseman don’t hit like this.
That is probably the lingering question hanging over Posey’s head, however. How much longer will he be a catcher, because a lot of his current value is tied to his ability to produce offense at a position where offense is scarce. If he moves to first base, he’d still be an excellent player, but he would be less excellent. So, how long can he stay behind the plate?
My guess is longer than we might think. Posey’s not the kind of bat-first catcher that you eventually move out from behind the dish because you can’t handle his defensive issues anymore. He’s not Carlos Santana or Mike Napoli. He might not be the best defensive catcher in the game, but he’s not actively hurting the Giants back there. I don’t see any reason to have Posey stop catching until it begins to wear him down physically. And given what he’s doing over the last year and a half, good luck proving that catching is hurting his offensive production.
The contract the Giants gave him was a win for both sides. Posey will be well compensated and has long term security, while the Giants have a premium player under team control for the bulk of his career. He’s not cheap in the sense that other players on this list are, but the value associated with having this kind of player at a good price is still immense.
#5 Evan Longoria (3B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 27 | 399 | 11.0 % | 22.3 % | .278 | .356 | .507 | .367 | 138 | 10.8 | -1.0 | 4.4 |
Under Team Control Through 2023: $8M, $11M, $12M, $13M, $14M, $15M, $15M, $19M, $20M, $13M option
Here’s a fun fact: Evan Longoria, known for his superlative defense and not really considered one of the game’s best hitters, has a career wRC+ of 136. Prince Fielder, a bat only player who got $214 million as a free agent, has a career wRC+ of 141. Evan Longoria is Prince Fielder’s offense combined with Adrian Beltre’s defense. Evan Longoria is an amazing and still under-appreciated baseball player.
And you know, there’s his contract. If they exercise the 2023 option, the remainder is $140 million over 10 years, taking Longoria through his age-37 season. On the one hand, Longoria probably won’t be a star in 10 years. On the other hand, $13 million isn’t going to be a lot of money to a baseball team in 10 years either.
Longoria’s health issues are the only real detracting factor here. If he was perfectly healthy all the time, we’d just rename this thing the Countdown to Evan Longoria. That he’s likely to spend some time on the DL each season makes him just great instead of practically perfect. There’s a reason the Rays chose this guy to build their franchise around, and it’s the same reason why the Rays are a terrific baseball team. Evan Longoria is a superstar.
#4 Andrew McCutchen (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 26 | 388 | 9.5 % | 14.2 % | .302 | .376 | .471 | .365 | 136 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
Under Team Control Through 2018: $7M, $10M, $13M, $14M, $15M
Andrew McCutchen is baseball’s prime example of the sum being better than the whole of its parts. He’s not the best defensive center fielder in the game. He doesn’t have elite power. He doesn’t make more contact than anyone, or draw an inordinate amount of walks. He’s not an elite base stealer. There isn’t a single that that McCutchen is better at than anyone else in Major League Baseball.
But he’s so good across the board that the overall package is a franchise player. A center fielder with first baseman’s offensive skills who also adds value with his legs, and by the way, doesn’t turn 27 until next year. McCutchen probably isn’t as good as he can be yet. He’s great, and there’s room for more.
A year ago, when he signed his extension to stay in Pittsburgh last year, there were actually questions about whether he was worth the $51 million they committed to him. If he was a free agent today, he’d get $250 million. Instead, the Pirates will pay him an average of about $12 million per year over the next five years, and McCutchen stands to help put Pittsburgh back on the map in Major League Baseball. I’d call that a pretty good signing.
#3 Manny Machado (3B)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 20 | 435 | 3.7 % | 16.3 % | .310 | .337 | .470 | .349 | 118 | 16.0 | -1.9 | 4.2 |
Under Team Control Through 2018: Pre-Arb, Arbitration
It’s important to remember that defense peaks early. Athleticism generally only declines after a player makes his big league debut, and the plays we’re seeing Manny Machado make at third base, he probably won’t be able to make forever. He’s an amazing defensive third baseman, but he might not always be this amazing.
The good news is that offense peaks later, and Machado’s offensive development should overwhelm any kind of defensive loss he sustains as he ages. He’s already a pretty good big league hitter at age-20, and when the doubles power turns into home run power — and he learns to not swing at every pitch he’s thrown — Machado could easily turn into one of the game’s best two way players.
If the Orioles moved him back to shortstop, we’d be comparing him to Troy Tulowitzki. As it is, he looks like he might end up following Evan Longoria’s path to stardom. Either path is just fine, and you shouldn’t worry too much about whether he’s playing third base or shortstop. He’s a huge defensive asset at both positions, and the gap in value between those two spots is more a fantasy baseball thing than a real baseball thing.
No matter where he plays, though, he’s got superstar written all over him. He’s not anything close to a finished product, but the upside is just so obvious. I’d imagine the Orioles will sign him up for a very long time once this season is over, because this is the kind of player you build championship teams around.
#2 Bryce Harper (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 20 | 242 | 14.9 % | 18.2 % | .264 | .371 | .522 | .381 | 145 | -2.0 | -0.4 | 1.6 |
Under Team Control Through 2018: $0.9M, Arbitration
I still think, from a looking-back-in-20-years perspective, that Bryce Harper has a chance to be the best player of this generation. His offensive skills are so special that he could easily develop into one of the best hitters in the history of the sport. Barring a serious injury, I will be very surprised if Harper doesn’t end up in the Hall of Fame. He’s that kind of player.
But, right now, that’s only good enough for #2. Because as good as Harper’s future looks, in the present, he’s still more good than great. The power isn’t fully developed yet. He’s not a great baserunner. He’s a good defender for a corner, but he’s not among the game’s best ball hawks. He’s a special kind of young hitter, but everything else is just good, not great.
And then there’s the health. You never want to see a young player having knee problems. It’s not the end of the world, but it’s not ideal either. He’s also shown a penchant for playing the game at 100% all the time, even if that means sacrificing his body in order to do so. Eventually, he will have to learn that it’s better to let a ball hit the wall than be peeling yourself off the ground every day. It might take awhile for that to sink in.
And finally, there’s the price. Harper’s going to be a Super Two player, getting four bites at arbitration, and his prices are going to skyrocket. Scott Boras knows what Harper is, and he’s not going to be easy to lock up long term. While there’s five more years of team control, he’s going to be pretty expensive by the end of those five years, and he’s not a sure thing to give up free agency.
So, as much as I’m completely and utterly in the tank for Bryce Harper’s bat, I can’t overlook the legitimate questions. There are real issues here. Maybe they will all turn out to be nothing. For the good of baseball, that’s what I’m hoping for.
#1 Mike Trout (OF)
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 21 | 426 | 11.0 % | 16.4 % | .322 | .399 | .565 | .410 | 166 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
Under Team Control Through 2017: Pre-Arb, Arbitration
Ladies and Gentleman, the best player in baseball. He’s 21.
Mike Trout is basically perfect. After having the best age-20 season of all time, he’s followed it up by being just as good. From a skills perspective, he’s even getting better, as he’s cut his strikeout rate down and now really doesn’t have any flaws. He’s gotten a little bigger, so maybe he’s not quite as good at the parts of his game that involve running as he was last year, but he’s still among the most valuable players in the game at non-hitting things.
Without knowing how conversations went, it’s impossible to know why the Angels haven’t locked up Mike Trout yet. Just back up the truck and give him whatever he wants. The rest of the Angels are kind of a disaster, but this guy is single handedly keeping them from going off the rails.
There is no player in baseball more valuable than Mike Trout. Even with just four years of team control left at uncertain prices, he’s on another level. This is the game’s premier asset.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
No Ben Revere!! WTF!
Real shame that this was the first comment after “This is the game’s premier asset”.
You people didnt know who Ben revere was until he joiend the Phillies..
I still don’t.
what Lori explained I’m taken by surprise that a mom can get paid $7031 in one month on the internet. did you see this web site>www.Bar40.com
This whole series is such an interesting thought exercise.
Thank you, Dave, for making this list. It has been very interesting!
Thanks. I’m glad you guys enjoy it. It’s a lot of work, but it’s also a fun exercise.
One of my favorite series every year.
I second Matthew’s post. This is a very enjoyable series, always look forward to reading it, and appreciate the time/effort you put into it. Helps the ASG Break move a little a bit faster.
Agreed with all of the positive feedback above. One suggestion: running a parallel list that’s indiffernent to contracts. IE, if you were allowed to have a player for the rest of his career, what would that top 50 ‘draft’ look like.
They do that once a year. It’s fun.
do they have a list for the worst players?
Not worst players, but worst contracts:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-anti-trade-value-the-five-worst-contracts/
Dave,
Would be a lot of work but have you thought about going back and analyzing previous years trade values and see how they’ve panned out?
Huh?
Wait, what?
Oh hai Alex
What’s going on here?
was the question, “Are you ever going to play a full season??”
I just don’t understand how Chris Davis isn’t anywhere in the top 50.
he is
He’s #18
You may want to review the earlier lists.
My bad. I did review the earlier lists, but must have missed him at 18.
It happens. I guess all the people who flamed you have never made a mistake.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-trade-value-20-16/
He was #18. I believe that counts as “somewhere” in the top 50.
Whoops, I was late. My bad.
I bet you’ll find him if you look hard enough.
He was like 14 or something.
reading is hard
And the Dumbest List of all time ends with not a single Phillie. For a second I thought maybe Utley, Rollins, or Hamels would sneak in here (I gave up all hope for Young or Revere), but apparently you need to be young, good at baseball, and cost-controlled to make the top 10.
Thanks to everyone for letting me troll and a big LOL to all of you who are internet blind. That’s clown stuff bro.
If you traded the entire Phillie 25 man roster, you MIGHT be able to get the Royals 25 man. Maybe.
The Royals couldn’t afford that.
I don’t think you understand what this list is about. Its not the 50 best players. Its generally the best, cheap, and young. The Phillies roster will be getting social security befoore most of these players on this list retire.
Chase Utley is a 35 year old free-agent to be who’s earning $15 million this year. He’s excellent, but you’re trading for 2-3 months of his services before he walks.
Jimmy Rollins is a 35 year old mediocre shortstop earning $11 million this year and next.
Cole Hamels is actually not 35, unlike the other guys! But he turns 30 in December, and any team employing him is contractually obligated to pay him $23.5 million through 2018.
Why would you think any of these guys have a top-50 trade value? I’m not saying one team or another couldn’t find any one of these guys useful – but top 50 in value?
Forget understanding how the internets work, did you even read his comment before posting? I mean, it’s hilarious how quickly people want to point out how smart they are … all the while doing the exact opposite.
Did nobody read my entire comment? Do none of you understand subtlety?
I was TROLLING. It was a joke. I’m not a Phillies fan and was just causing noise.
Jesus christ…
Your parents must be proud.
A good troll never reveals his motives. Tisk tisk.
I know, but it was getting really bad. I was quite depressed by the obliviousness.
A good troll is inspired by the obliviousness.
don’t take that guy’s name in vein, bro
Well, in that case, move Chris from Stupid to Stupid.
There was nothing subtle about it. You admitted you were trolling halfway through the series, though it was obvious before that. I’m all for sarcasm, but it’s more art than science, and your dabbling in stick figures.
*you’re*
worst troll ever
To be more specific: I am an internet sabermetrics writer currently incognito for fun.
Dr. Internet, I presume?
You also have a very poor sense of humor and delight in making other people angry. You are a very poor human being and I highly recommend reevaluting your priorities in life. You seem to be entirely lacking in empathy.
omg, I made non-sabermetric arguments in a “dumb fan” patois to sabermetrics enthusiasts! I’m a monster!!! Off to kill myself/learn empathy!
“lacking in empathy” is a delightfully unexpected comment to find in this thread
I thought it was pretty funny. Mainly because he was so OBVIOUSLY trolling and yet so many people didn’t get it.
upvote to that CHRIS comment
You are history’s greatest monster.
Darren Daultons shits were worth 1.2 WAR a piece. the kruk testical that was removed was worth the majority of his WAR in 93
Are you people for real?
you need to practice
this was practice
It sounds like you must lead an exciting and fulfilling life :/
It’s funny how people get so angry about this stuff. Relax, guys. It’s a joke.
Wow, you’re so incognito and that was so incisive. Way to blow the doors off the internet.
‘incognito’ was supposed to be ironically overdramatic, and clearly trolling about ben revere is not meant to be incivisive, just meant to annoy people who are so quick to FJM everything until they bleed from their ears.
Your writing is probably terrible.
guess who i am then!
A nobody.
Probably nobody I’d bother to read. It would be hilarious if you were a writer on this site, though.
Maybe he’s Ben Revere…
You’re an internet sabermatrician? Tell me something interesting about clickthrough rates.
And here is why the phrase “Nerd” may never cease to be associated with FG readers…those of us who read because we love and want to understand and discuss baseball are overwhelmed by a 25-post conversation about “trolling.”
On the plus side, this thread explained to me what “trolling” is. So, I guess I learned something today.
Currenly incognito? Aw, be a man and show up for real. We all would appreciate your sly wit, especially with a new slant in internet humor.
go home Dave Cameron, you’re drunk
He’s trolling, but I am surprised Cliff Lee didn’t make it in the 40-50 range. I don’t even think he was honorable mention.
I was very surprised at that as well.
“apparently you need to be young, good at baseball, and cost-controlled to make the top 10”
Upvoted because that line is reveals Chris’s secret genius.
If people can be trolled that easily, they’re not as smart as they think they are.
Again, people know he’s a troll (or at least some of them). They like responding because trolls means the glove’s off. It’s fun, for a while.
BOOM!
“apparently you need to be young, good at baseball, and cost-controlled to make the top 10.”
It’s funny, because the rest of your posts read like you have no idea what this list is about, but that sentence seems to indicate that you do understand after all. So why are you complaining again?
Utley? Rollins? yea maybe the list of 2008, Utley is made of glass, Young, and Rollins are past their prime. Why are Phillies fans all SUPER FANS? There is really good baseball being played outside the NL East.. you got the right coast, but the wrong League my friend..
He said he was trolling and not a Phillies fan. I didn’t like it, but you need to get over it.
Go home, you’re not president anymore.
“Why are Phillies fans all SUPER FANS?”
-It’s a Philly thing. I mean it as both a compliment and an insult.
hey man I get you, but I’m a yETI. you’d fit right in
HAHAHA what an amazing job of trolling you did. You did it so well that everyone didn’t even realize you were trolling even though it was INCREDIBLY OBVIOUS that you were trolling. As a Phillies fan, I really appreciated the humor (I gave up all hope for Young and Revere)-lmao
That being said, I haven’t seen any of your posts on other articles
wth is trolling? commenting on articles? is that the reason the commenting feature is there, to comment? if you dont want people make you look dumb when you claim that Chase Utley is some kind of player hes not, you should stop posting.
Trolling, in general, is when somebody posts inflammatory comments simply for the purpose of provoking reactions. Often the troller does not even agree with or believe in what he is posting. The troll is delighted when his comments produce responses which try to legitimately refute his points because it amuses him that people don’t realize he is joking and that they get so worked up about it.
Trolling, specific to Fangraphs, usually consists of someone pretending to be a “dumb” traditionalist fan who expresses shock and outrage that mediocre players that are overrated by the mainstream media aren’t evaluated highly by a sabermetric website.
The problem is that people also retroactively declare themselves to be trolls when they realize what they claimed earlier was unsupportable even by their own “logic”. So you can’t take someone’s “hey I was trolling and you were stupid not to pick that up” at face value. You have to look at that person’s posting track record to see whether they’re just trying to cover dumbness
especially true when they follow up by claiming that they are a sabermetrics writer on the internet. really? no, but I did stay at a holiday inn express last night.
Bad news is always hard to get? There’s not anyone on the roster who doesn’t have significant warts (Papelbon greatly overpaid as a closer, Lee and Hamels great but making a ton of money, Utley is on the downside with chronic injuries, Rollins isn’t what he used to be, Howard merely existing, etc.). Not to be snippy, but you should consider researching the word “value.” Phils are in a long-term pickle for which there seem to be few solutions other than start rebuilding.
if anyone knows “clown stuff”, it’ you.
Obvious is obvious, but apparently not.
This wasn’t even a true troll attempt. It was a troll of trolls. It was so over-the-top that is was obvious CHRIS was making fun of the trolls. Okay, the fact that some of you didn’t pick up on it certainly says something (actually, a lot of you didn’t pick up on it looking at the down votes), but then when he explains (which he shouldn’t have bothered doing) many of you still go over the edge.
Take a deep breath next time.
Beyond that, Dave, great stuff as always. Even CHRIS, I’m sure agrees!
RAAAARRRGGGHHHH!
jk.
I know his defense is amazing, but isn’t it possible that Machado is being wildly overrated at present? His offense – largely aided by a .361 BABIP – has been floundering for a month and a half, his pitch recognition is pretty poor, and it’s getting worse month by month. (BB% has declined every month this year, 5.6% in Mar/April, 3.8% in May, 2.4% in June, to now 1.8% in July).
Sure his offense will likely get better, but am I the only one who thinks that he’s being overhyped because a bunch of balls have fallen in for doubles?
He’s not really a 120 wRC+ guy right now, but the ZIPS and Steamer projections suggest he’s slightly short of a 4 win player with average offense right now. Guys who are 4 win players at age 20 often end up in the Hall of Fame.
And I’m sure the Orioles will end up moving him to his natural position of SS which will only add to his value. He’s going to be a more athletic version of Miguel Cabrera in his prime and could be #1 on this list in another year or 2. I wanted to Pirates to take him over Jameson Taillon SO bad. It absolutely kills me that we passed on such a rare talent that plays such a tough position. The Orioles should thank the Pirates for being idiots because Wieters and Machado should be in the black and gold!!
Machado is awesome, but “more athletic version of Miguel Cabrera in his prime”? There is just no way that he will hit like Cabrera. I can say this with confidence because there are maybe 10 players in the history of baseball who have hit like Cabrera what Cabrera is doing currently.
Number of right handed batters I can think of who have had seasons like Cabrera is having over the last 40 years without them being steroid-tainted is pretty much “Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell in 1994”
You forgot Pujols
Wait a minute Yinka did you just say “without them being steroid tainted” and jeff bagwell in the same sentence?
Pujols didn’t have a season of over 200 wRC+, which is where Cabrera is right now and what Thomas and Bagwell had in 1994 (granted, a work stoppage-shortened year).
And yeah, I said Bagwell. The evidence for Bagwell being on something is “he got all muscle-y”, unlike guys like Manny Ramirez, A-Rod, Barry Bonds and others where there’s actual tests or at least some kind of documentation out there. Until someone actually has something more than “I think Bagwell was on steroids because he got big” then I’m not considering him a steroid-tainted guy.
I guarantee that his WRC will regress below 200.
I am becoming less and less fond of the “Players who do ____ at age ____ usually go on have HOF careers” case. I get the point, but it’s way too flimsy of an argument, especially seeing as how we’ve had a few “potential HOF’ers” (J Upton, Heyward come to mind) who came up hot a few years ago but are currently struggling big-time.
Way to find terrible examples of young potential players who are “struggling big-time.”
At his current pace, Heyward will be half-way to a HOF WAR at 26. Does that mean he will? Of course not, but to say “struggling big time” is a bit disingenuous.
Forget Harper and Trout even exist and you’ll realize how special a player Machado is. I bet one could argue that even being able to sniff a BABIP this high at this age is reasonable enough to suggest so (as backwards as that might sound).
LD% son. Rogers Hornsby lived and died by it.
LD% is not very predictive of BABIP. And could you please tell me where you’re getting batted ball data for Rogers Hornsby?
It is my understanding that, based solely on witness accounts, he hit a very high percentage of line drives.
Yeah and Bob Gibson consistently touched 101.
I agree. And people take his UZR for dogma for some reason when the stat isn’t even close to stabilizing. Going forward, he’s probably going to be a good but not great hitter. Back end of the top 10, if that. There’s no way I would take him over Stanton.
As someone who watches the O’s on a regular basis, just from the eye test, I don’t think many of his doubles have “fallen in” for doubles. Most of them are lined shots into the gaps or down the lines. I’d think as he grows and develops, those will start going over the fence.
I see Dave agrees with me about Harvery. (I only phrase it that way because I made that comment before these rankings came out, but I’m sure he had already written these by that time). Basically, as a super-ace with the maximum amout of team control, he’s as valuable as a pitcher could possibly be. Add to that the fact that for one reason or another, he’s been instantly recognized as a superstar, whereas other players have taken a lot longer to get recognition. Considering the guys ahead of him, the ranking seems appropriate.
I pretty much agree given the people in front of him…but I disagree with the idea that he is as good as a pitcher could get (And I also agree with Dave putting Strasburg in the same level as Ankiel and Prior: Strasburg is pitching to a 3.40 FIP for god’s sake! He’s striking out 9 per 9! And his velocity seems to be sustaining! He’s already worth 1.7 WAR in 108 innings: Even if he never improved, if he pitched 200 innings he’s already pretty much a 3.5 WAR player…and he is only 24!)
He’s as *valuable* as a pitcher could get, not as *good* as a pitcher could get. In order for a pitcher to better establish how good he is, he has to pitch longer, eating up cheap controllable years. Or be Doc Gooden. Strasburg could have become this valuable, but he got hurt first.
But doesn’t that mean he is not as valuable, as there could be a better pitcher who comes up some day with the same cheap controllable years?
Or, in other words, I don’t think a pitcher can’t crack the T5 or only can with a weak T10.
Yes, that was my point. a pitcher can’t really be more valuable than Harvey is right now.
What if Harvey had Matt Moore’s contract? Wouldn’t that make him more valuable?
Prior seems like a pretty fair compairison to me.
Only if you completely ignore the facts, then yes it is.
Sorry no. Prior had shoulder problems, Strasburg tore his UCL. The recovery rate for the latter is tremendously higher than the latter.
Prior got hurt because Dusty Baker is a moron and ran him into the ground when he was obviously hurting from A) getting run over by the Braves’ 2B then B) taking a line drive off his elbow. How is that in any conceivable way at all similar to Strasburg’s injury?
higher than the former …
What is most amazing about looking at Trout’s 2013 numbers is that he is only a +1 in fielding. Wasnt he like +20 last year. Angel fans…has he been noticeably worse in the field this year??
He has been noticeably more average defensively, at least from my perspective as someone who has watched most of the games this year. I mean, he could never live up to last year’s defense with the robbed homeruns and multiple highlight reel grabs. Probably also hindering him is the fact that he’s been moved around between LF and CF a lot with Bourjos being injured.
He understandably looks a lot more comfortable in CF and seems to get better reads off the bat there.
He’s playing left field, where his ridiculous range doesn’t have quite the advantage over other players as it did in CF. There’s only so much ground to cover in the corners.
He doesn’t quite have the cannon arm a lot of other corner guys do, or the “sense” that particularly special ones like senor Bonds have for predicting where a ball is going.
He’s had few blunders and missed HR robberies that went the other way last year.
He’s also had some really amazing plays that show the ability and athleticism is still there.
Angels fans are glad he jumps over walls instead of into them.
Of course, everyone is ignoring the fact that Trout was horrible the last month and half last year which will be repeated this year …
I don’t think you know what ‘horrible’ means. But I’m here to help rather than simply complain and make fun.
hor·ri·ble
[hawr-uh-buhl, hor-]
adjective
1. causing or tending to cause horror; shockingly dreadful: a horrible sight.
2. extremely unpleasant; deplorable; disgusting: horrible living conditions.
Synonyms
1. terrible, awful, appalling, frightful; hideous, grim, ghastly, shocking, revolting, repulsive, horrid, horrendous, horrifying, repellent.
Dave, it may be difficult but what would be pretty cool to see these guys’ current contract against what your estimate for fair market value is/will be for those years. Get a sense of how big the surplus value is on these contracts.
This. I assume dave is doing some kind of surplus-value analysis. I think it would be interesting to see his numbers.
Man, that is really asking a lot. He’s never to anything else.
He’d never do . . .
It’s sad how badly the Angels have thrown their money around. With an asset like Trout and the ability to have multiple 9 digit contracts on their roster apparently, it takes some terrible decision-making to be in the position they are in right now.
LOL. I totally read “asset” as “asshat” at first and questioned what in the world you were saying.
It’s kind of like the Minaya Mets with Wright and Reyes making peanuts, Beltran at a slight discount and than everyone else wildly overpaid. If the Mets were the Yanks than screw it, but the Mets would run into the budget limit and have to purposely start the season with replacement level players on a contending big market club.
I agree with you, except for me it’s ecstasy. Dodgers, Yankees, Angels spending all that money and eating dust. It doesn’t get any better than this.
Oops! Just checked the standings: the Dodgers are out of the dustbin. Damn!
Way way out of it, now.
Yadi’s better!
please, get the gist of this column
“Mike Trout is basically perfect.” HEART. LOVE. AGREE. AMEN.
It is amazing how many HOF projected players there are right now. This has got to be maybe the best era ever for great young baseball players.
Which young guns would be on your list? There’s going to have to be a new set of HOF milestones/criteria that are developed to reflect the fact that nobody’s gonna play ~20 years anymore, top 500 HR or get within an ICBM’s range of 3,000 strikeouts. I mean Miggy Cabrera get there and Trout is on his way, but after that it’s damned hard coming up with players that satisfy at least what I think of as HOF-caliber players.
Why would no one play for 20+ years anymore? Especially with medical advances being what they are, HOF players will still have long careers. Also 3000 strikeouts and 500 HRs are still viable milestones. Look at what Kershaw and Felix already have at a young age. Seriously, the game hasn’t changed as much as some people want you to believe.
I think it would be harder for an older player to stick around an remain effective. Player development is so huge and old veterans are not as revered as they probably once were. I think that a player probably has less room to decline and a young star-to-be would have a better shot at replacing a worn-down veteran, even if that veteran has had a borderline HoF career.
I still think those milestones are totally within reach, I just see how they could be harder to reach.
Hey there
Besides the young guns, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Albert Pujols, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Adrian Beltre and Chase Utley are all probably on their way to the Hall.
It’s important to remember that Hall voters right now basically aren’t voting players into he Hall of Fame. Being “Hall-worthy” is not the same as being destined for the Hall. To that end, there’s no way anyone can reasonably predict who will be admitted to the Hall. There are many in the game on a path to being “Hall-worthy” but that doesn’t mean they’ll make it. It’s really unfortunate what many Hall biters are doing to the Hall of Fame with their stubbornness.
The 50’s were pretty good: Mays, Aaron, Mantle, Matthews for starters.
I had a lot of disagreements with this list, but I thank you a lot for writing this, Dave: after all, one shouldn’t surround themselves with only opinions that agree with them, and my thought process is probably below yours given you do this kind of stuff for a living.
One thing I wanted to contend with, though: Why is Strasburg on the same level as Ankiel and Prior? Maybe he hasn’t been the world’s best pitcher, but he strikes out a lot of players, is getting more groundballs, is only 24 and his velocity seems fine. Oh, and he is pitching to a 3.40 FIP/3.50 xFIP so far. It seems to me like caling him such a bust is premature.
I believe he was alluding to the injury risk inherent with pitchers, not referring to Strasburg as a ‘bust’.
I think he’s referring to the pedigree those pitchers had coming into the majors in the first place.
Ah. I suppose I misread it, then.
Would it be possible to do an all time (or at least post free agency) trade value list? It would be interesting to see how Trout pre arb compares to ARod and how they would both compare to Bonds’ original SF contract.
Babe Ruth got sold for a song…literally.
Supposedly.
Impossible to do due to the hyper-inflation in salaries.
not really. you could just base it off the value of a player’s salary during the period in which he played. I don’t know if average salaries for every season dating way back even exist, but my guess is they do somewhere.
You will regret this, Cameron.
no he won’t
Good series. Well reasoned. You helped fill the All Star Break lull.
I’d love to hear your reasoning on why Gio Gonzalez missed the list, though.
It was a combination of small factors.
1. Natural erosion of value from last year due to loss of cheapest team controlled year.
2. Since the list was put together at the break last year, he had a 28% strikeout rate at the time of publication, a big jump from his prior performance in Oakland. That regressed back to 22% in the second half and has stayed back at the levels he was posting when he was in Oakland.
3. His name appearing in the BioGenesis records. While his defense certainly seems plausible and he is unlikely to be suspended, teams have taken note of the Miami/ACES connections to PEDs. It might not be fair, but there’s a little bit of guilt by association built into based on the city/agent connections. Teams wouldn’t ignore him entirely if he was on the market, but it’s not a positive factor in his trade value.
4. The weird second option clause. Without the options, it’s now 3/31, which is a nice price but not a huge steal. The first option is a team option for $12 million, which is nice, but the second option is a vesting player option, so picking up the 2017 option is really picking up both years at an additional 2/24, which makes the value of the first option a bit less than if they could break them apart. If they pick up the option and he gets hurt, they’re out an extra $12 million. If they pick up the option and he pitches well, it disappears, and he elects free agency, so they don’t get the benefit of the fifth year of team control.
There were a lot good-not-great pitchers with good-not-great contracts who ended up on the outside looking in. Gio was in that mix, and I meant to list him with the just missed pitchers.
Thanks for the explanation, I was curious about it too.
Thanks for your very thorough explanation. Very much appreciated.
His ommission from the just-missed section did at least add some suspense to the list, even if it got less and less likely that he’d appear as the list progressed. I also didn’t know how the two options worked, so that was very interesting information as well and explains why his contract is a bit less friendly than it appeared.
You did a great job framing this question the way you did rather than publishing a crazed rant insulting Dave for his baseball ignorance. This is the way comments/questions by reasonable people should be phrased.
Yep, can’t wait to tell my grandkids about Paul Goldschmidt.
Given his organization, that will likely be a sad story.
Only one measly World Series championship in 15 years? How awful!
Dave, in Machado’s write up you say defense peaks early and offense peaks later. For the uninitiated, at what age does defense tend to become a liability?
16, if you’re Ben Grieve.
If Machado truly is an historically elite defensive third baseman, he should hold onto his value far longer than this article suggests.
Mike Schmidt put up positive TZ numbers thru age 34, Buddy Bell thru age 33, Scott Rolen thru age 36, Brooks Robinson thru age 38, etc.
Adrian Beltre may have finally hit the wall this year at age 34.
My point is that elite third basemen don’t lose their defensive value as quickly as elite outfielders.
So if Gio wasn’t on the honorable mention, dropped off, or top 50…does he no longer exist?
probably just forgotten. it happens. ex post excuses may be made, but don’t see how he’s not an honorable mention
Dave says in his post above that he was supposed to be on the just missed list.
Stanton seems to me to be the most contentious one here. He’s a hell of a player with a fairly regular injury history. Guys with histories of leg injuries don’t seem to age particularly well.
I wonder if he’s a guy that will get moved to first base fairly early in his career. That obviously hurts his value but it’s not like his bat doesn’t play really well at any position…
Spent the past 20 minutes watching Rick Ankiel pitching highlights. Now on to Dwight Gooden.
As a Cardinals fan, I would never do this because I wouldn’t be able to watch the highlights through all the tears…
It doesn’t feel like Cargo’s HFA is properly accounted for. His road OPS is .774. In basically two complete seasons of ABs, his road stats project to ~ 24 HRs and a .267. Nice, but that’s not great.
And with as well as he’s pitching, and with 5 years+ of control left, it seemed a little odd to leave Corbin off the list.
OTOH, I applaud that you included Bogaerts, and that has nothing to do with the fact that I am a RS fan.
Yeah but you can’t take road splits at face value and assume that’s the kind of hitter he’d be overall. I’m sure his road splits also aren’t helped by his division; yeah Arizona is a hitter haven, but LA, San Diego, and San Francisco are very much pitcher parks.
wRC+ is great for neutralizing a park’s impact; I think you’d be better off just using that as opposed to getting too bent out of shape over home/road OPS.
l agree on Corbin. He’s young,solid. Really great pitcher.
Corbin is 24 literally today (happy birthday) and his peripherals don’t match up with his ERA. I feel he’s establishing himself as a very good young pitcher, but compared to Fernandez’s youth, Miller’s peripherals and Harvey’s everything, he doesn’t make as strong a case for this list. I don’t think anyone would complain if he showed up in the 41-50 range though.
Something to consider for CarGo’s away splits is that almost every away park in his division is pitcher’sP: Petco, AT&T, even Dodger’s Stadium. The only other hitter’s park he has is Chase.
So, we would naturally assume him to have a lower away split because his away split is in more parks that are the opposite of Coors: Heavily pitcher.
Paul Goldschmidt has destroyed those parks in his career.
Part of the reason so many Rockies have nasty splits is that breaking balls (and even cutters) move so much differently at Coors than they do at sea level–plenty of Rockies hitters over the years have talked about the first couple of games after a long homestand being really, really hard because they have to adjust/recalibrate their expectations for how those pitches move. Take Cargo and stick him on a sea level team and his numbers would still be insane.
I’m sick of commenters who think that a player’s road stats count for everything and his home stats for nothing. Almost everybody plays better at home. Look at stats like wRC+ if you’re concerned about park effects, but don’t dismiss half of a player’s career.
Agree with what the others said about using only road splits. Players from neutral home parks hit worse on the road too.
Plus, the Rockies are the only National League team that doesn’t get to play any of their road games at Coors Field!
NL East and Central guys only get 3 games in Coors Field, so your point really only pertains to NL West players.
Great series, Dave. Quick question.
Yoenis Cespedes’ contract was initially considered pretty team-friendly. If his first-half offensive output matched last year’s (which it hasn’t in numerous offensive metrics), would he have been a Top 50 candidate in your system?
Not that it matters, but the last year of McCutchen’s contract is a team option.
9 of the top 10 properties being position players? Bang on.
When analysts look at drafting records, they typically look at performance markers (such as WAR), without looking at the variability of performance which affects value as property. It seems to me that too many pitchers are drafted, on average, early. The lure of upside is powerful, but this series and ones like it, provide a nice antidote to that type of thinking.
“Anecdote”.
No
There’s nothing worse than making a really wrong “correction.”
*Their’s
Mike Trout the first 30 million a year ball player
I can’t imagine the Angels signing him to a deal that has a $30MM year involved before Cabrera signs his next deal.
With that said, if you are talking about AAV then Trout will easily do that (assuming health, etc.) if he doesn’t sell any free agent years.
Huh?
Watcha talkin bout boy?
Contracts, not endorsements.
My point remains.
Nice list, good work Dave. Big project.
HAHAHA everyone on here takes me so seriously.
omg get over it lol, you’ve kind of ruined the comedy of it with your whole “revelation”…is this your new form of trolling? this one makes you look a lot more pathetic. what’s your next project, baking cookies at three hundred and fifty ONE degrees?!!
You’ve already had your chance to gloat about how you pulled the wool over our eyes. Now go rub one out and then maybe leave your computer room and make actual real-life friends.
If you don’t have the guts to reveal your identity, self-proclaimed sabermetrician, then shut the FUCK up.
Great to see 2 pirates on the list!
Future is bright for them… I hope
Thanks for the list Dave. Great work
CHRIS!!! COME RUB MY BUNIONS!!!
count me in the group that last week didn’t expect to read about a commenter’s mom’s bunions in “top 10 trade value” thread
Count me in the group surprised the topic didn’t come up sooner!
Dave, thanks for the list – fantastic as usual. Wondering why Gerritt Cole didn’t make the cut, though (my apologies if I missed him). He’s young, has pedigree, a huge heater, and is under team control until 2019.
Most of these other guys have demonstrated more big league success I assume. The best comps in terms of service time and prospect status are Jose Fernandez and Shelby Miller, and Fernandez two years younger, while Miller is having an outstanding season.
I am not sure how defensible it is to have Harvey at #7, Fernandez at #17 and Cole and Corbin missing entirely, but I see why those guys are ranked higher. Fernandez I think is mostly benefitting from extreme youth, which is the same reason that Trout, Harper and Machado are 1-2-3. There are better players (well, not better than Trout) but unlike with just about any other age, we expect 20-year-old players to get better.
Can’t tell whether you’re playing with the phrase on purpose, but I think you meant to say of McCutchen, “the whole is better than the sum of it’s parts”, not the other way around.
Pedantry aside, very nice series of posts.
And I mean “its”, not “it’s”. Right. Carry on.
perhaps the most interesting thing about these 113 comments is that Bryce Harper has been mentioned in precisely 1 of them, which was saying to forget about him to appreciate machado.
Here, I’ll drive up his mentions: I hope that the Nationals fail to resign Harper, and that he goes to some team far, far from the NL East.
That’s probably good for Harper. If it was a severe over-rank, there would be lots of people complaining. It seems the tacit consensus is that Harper basically is the 2nd most valuable trade piece in all of baseball. That’s very high praise, though no one’s actually praising him.
Hey, I’m only 27 and making less than $1M this year!
Oh wait, I’m terrible at baseball.
Better than whoever wrote that comment, I’ll bet.
great series, thanks for the enjoyable read
I should have accepted a Matt Moore like contract!
Shortly before this series came out I was discussing with a friend whether the Cardinals would trade Yadier Molina for Mike Trout. We also discussed whether the Angels would do it. Finally we discussed whether we would do it if we were the GM of the Cardinals (since we’re Cardinals fans). The funny thing is that our answers were “No” no matter how we looked at it. I don’t think the Cardinals would do it simply because they have an abundance of young pitching (and a dearth of young catching) that they want Yadi to shepherd into the majors. I don’t think the Angels would do it because they have the best young player in baseball and he’s cost controlled for quite some time yet. Finally, as a fan I wouldn’t do it because having watched Yadi become a good hitter and seeing everyday his ability to control the game I think that I have a real appreciation for how much a great catcher affects the game. Anyway, I’m sure this anecdote isn’t worth much but I just thought it was interesting that we had this discussion and the 2 players ended up in the top 11 of this list. I think it also highlights how an argument can be made for many of the top players being the most trade-valuable.
The Cards also have a loaded outfield for the next couple years, even if beltran isn’t resigned.
Please tell me you’re trolling (even though I know you’re not- your point about him bringing along young pitchers into the majors is certainly fair, but if you’d even consider not trading Molina for Trout…a 31 year old catcher for the best young player ever…I just…I’ll stop)
The Cards wouldn’t do it. Should they? Of course, but Taxi means too much to that team, he organization, and he fanbase. They would take a huge PR hit for it.
Taxi? Fuck my fucking kindle fire!
It’s. YADI, dammit!
Got news for you, Nick. Any team would trade their best player and a lot more for Trout.
*antidote
Was hoping to see Don Kelly up on this.
Dave – a Harper v Trout question. You seem to value their skills fairly closely, with the edge to Trout. But doesn’t your ranking imply an even wider talent spread (or maybe its more accurate to say ‘expected performance’ spread), once you also take into account that Trout has 4 years of control, and Harper has 5? Isn’t it almost like saying that Trout is a 7 WAR player (28WAR remaining) and Harper is a 5 WAR one (25 WAR left)? Or is it more that you think Trout will get paid less in his arb years than Harper because of the way that he provides value?
Both players have the same amount of team control. Trout didn’t play enough games in 2011 to amount to a full year of service time.
Dave says differently in their write ups. Not sure which is right, but seems like an important point.
Sorry. I stand corrected.
Not sure how the Nat’s got away with securing another year of team control by calling him up in late April last season. Usually a team has to delay the call up until June before getting that benefit.
Rustydude,
You’re thinking of the Super-Two arbitration qualification. If you wait until sometime in June (it varies each year) to call a player up, he won’t qualify for Super-Two eligibility. However, if you call a player up a few weeks into the season, he will qualify for Super-Two, but the team will control him for an extra year. So, if a team wants to basically squeeze an extra year of control out of a player and doesn’t care about arbitration costs, they call him up in late April. If a team, like Tampa, cares about the arbitration costs, they wait until late June.
Absolutely love this list. Engrossing. The only thing that would have made it better is if you included each player’s team. I (and others) are not as knowledgeable as most of you, and would appreciate that information.
Great ending to a great list. But one thing I’d love to see for next year would be the players separated into tiers as opposed to just straight rankings. With this list there are some places where the players are nearly interchangeable between spots. For example, there’s a great argument for putting McCutchen, Longoria, and Posey in any order, but they all obviously place below Machado. Tiers would be absolute, while rankings within tiers are more up to interpretation.
Just my two cents on how to make a great feature a little better.
Just my one cent (because Jaack made it already): I agree.
I forgot to change the name.
HAHAHAHAHAHA! troll troll troll I got you I did! HAHAHAHHAH1!!
I dont even like Ben Revere!!
Gwahaaa cool by the way did I mention how I made all of Dave’s posts about ME? Cool cool man cool. Did I mention? Did I mention? By the way I got lots of emails thats said I was laugh. LOTS Of PEOPLE fooled you!
DID I MENTION?
By the way I’m a internet incognito, with sabermetric subtlety.
By the way Dave is a phooey.
Hi Jeff.
I still think that Miguel Cabrera is the best player in baseball but Trout is more valuable.
One small disagreement but I would definitely rank Machado #2 behind Trout. There is no way I would trade Machado straight up for Harper. I don’t even think its close. Other than that I think the top 10 is pretty good.
Your an idiot if you think it isn’t even close. Maybe you could debate Machado is better, but the opinion would be definitely be in the minority. If you think Machado is much more valuable or better than Harper, you are truly an idiot.
Buster Posey.
Cometh the hour, cometh the man.
Love this series. Thanks for doing it. Would be good if there was a post that has the final top 50 all in one place.
All the other lists are linked at the top.
That’s your homework assignment. Due Monday.
Am I wrong in thinking that Joe Mauer should be somewhere in the top 50 or at least in the honorable mentions? I realize his huge contract hurts his value and his age does as well, but still the guy is an elite offensive catcher who is still playing above average defense.
Funny, you answered your own question with the beginning of your second sentence.
How much longer is he a catcher? Is he that exceptional if he moves to first base? These are serious issues that, probably in Dave’s reckoning aren’t surmounted by a .400 obp.
Goldschmidt’s breakout could have been predicted; various Arizona media outlets reported that he studies the pitchers he faces and tries to minimize his weaknesses. Much time and effort is devoted to pitch recognition, and he’s been taking advantage of video ever since he was called up to MLB. Add that to his natural talents and you have a thinking-man’s slugger.
It wouldn’t be a stretch to characterize Goldy as a full-time 1B version of Buster Posey with a ISO/K% tradeoff. The similarities don’t end there, either, given the context of Goldschmidt’s first season and their batted ball profiles. Swap home parks and position, and I’d imagine Posey’s HR to go up but his wRC+ to go down.
You might be right on the Goldschmidt-Posey comparison. That being said, Posey’s career wRC+ as a first baseman (288 plate appearances as of midway through tonight’s game) is 176, which would put him at the top of the career list for active players.
Yes, everyone here is pathetic. That doesn’t mean ” where is (insert guy who obviously doesn’t belong on the list)?!!”” is funny or good trolling.
My outfield in a 16 team dynasty league ,is McCutchen,Harper,and Trout . Future looks so bright I gotta wear shades !
You must be as happy as a pig in shit!
Picking nits, but McCutchen was born in 1986, so he’ll actually be turning 27 this year (early October).
“baseball age” is generally considered to be the player’s age on July 1 of the season in question. McCutcheon will still be 26 on July 1, 2013. Thus, he is “26” for this baseball season.
It is completely selfish and short-sighted of the Angels to hold on to a transcendent talent like Trout. Trout deserves to have a HOF career on a real team committed to winning. Languishing on a second rate team in the AL West is unfair to his legacy. And really, the Angels’ farm system is completely unimpressive. The haul from a Trout trade could really rejuvenate the Angels just when they really need it. Free Mike Trout.
Yes, the Angels should trade Trout for a bunch of old players with high salaries. That would improve the team chemistry, as they would be just like the other players.
So why is Shelby Miller down so far whereas Byron Buxton, Xander Bogaerts, Jose Fernandez, and Matt Harvey are much higher. Especially the two minor leaguers…
What a great article! One minor detail about Posey: although on the surface quite a bit of his value comes from the fact that he is an offensive force that plays catcher, up to this point he has performed significantly better in the time he has spent at first base. Over his career he has a 142 wRC+ as a catcher against 176 playing first base. Slash-line-wise, he is at .309/.375/.509 as a catcher, but .356/.425/.577 as a first baseman. What the Giants are banking on is that even after he moves to first base full-time, he will still provide an overall value in the same ballpark as the one he produces as a catcher. As I was writing this he hit a homer while playing first in a game against the Dbacks.
Very small sample size at 1b. Only 74 games and 276 ABs.
For fun, I looked at a few other great hitting catchers that also played some 1b… 3 popped into my head (Johnny Bench, Joe Torre, Mike Piazza). They were not more successful batters when they were away from catcher.
While 3 examples is far from anything except anecdotal evidence, I’m inclined to believe that Posey would stabilize at the same level batting, whether playing at 1b or C. A very high level, but not better while playing 1b only.
Even if he did, it wouldn’t offset replacing a first baseman with a backup catcher in your lineup.
Part of the reason that most post worse numbers at 1B is that they move off of C later in their careers as their defensive skills erode, so I would imagine that the offensive decline is much more related to their normal aging curve than due to the positional change.
Trout’s below average arm is basically the only thing holding him back from going even farther. He’s basically Barry Bonds right now.
I may very well be wrong, but what I’ve seen of him, he is an average fielder at best. His instincts and reads on balls in the air are not great. He makes up for it to some extent with speed. But he’s also not blazingly fast, and he’s too big a guy to maintain the speed he’s got for long going forward. …of course, I would love to have him anywhere in my outfield!!!
Trout has far more power than Bonds did at this point in his career, otherwise, the comparison is apt.
On this planet, Miguel Cabrera is the best player in baseball. And it’s not even close.
“On this planet, Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball. And it’s not even close.”
FTFY.
Yes, he is also the best hitter.
If Machado’s .362babip is unsustainable – which is likely – what plus hitting skills does that leave him with?
Power? He’s 20 years old and has 49 extra base hits in 98 games.
Also, his (admittedly short) career BABIP is .344, and his xBABIP is .328. Sure, .362 is unsustainable, but he’s probably not a .300 guy either.
More importantly, 20 year old players tend to improve, usually quite a bit.
This…
“He’s a huge defensive asset at both positions, and the gap in value between those two spots is more a fantasy baseball thing than a real baseball thing. ”
…is complete bullshit.
No, it’s not. Dave isn’t saying SS’s aren’t more valuable than 3B, he’s just saying if Machado moves to SS what he gains in positional adjustment he’ll give up in UZR by being compared to the pool of SS’s instead of the pool of 3B. He’s probably slightly more valuable as a SS but the difference is unlikely to be much.
The only way this doesn’t hold up is if you think he’d actually be a plus defender at SS, which seems pretty unlikely to me.
Thoughts on Ryan Braun not in the list? 27 years old, not too expensive, and one of the top 10 hitters in the game. A little health issues of late and a suspension looming, but still not a top 50?
Dave addressed this in the honorable mentions issue. Basically, there’s so much uncertainty with Braun that he just has no idea where to put him.
And what are the stats after slugging?
All you Phillies bashers will just have to wait and see who goes to the WS for the NL.
Both of me are the greatest ever in my position!
As a diehard Mets fan Harvey will never be traded. not realistic for him to be on the list.
The Atlanta Braves have a roster with at least 20 players under 27 years of age and lead their division by ten games and have only one player in the top fifty and he is at the bottom of the list. Please explain this. Is it possible that Bobby Cox and Fredi Gonzoles are geniuses? Or is it that John Sherholtz has been fooling his piers for all these years as general manager and now president. How many closers have struck out 44% of the batters they have faced? How many all star games has McCann selected to play in? Jcoukd gone but enough is enough.
The Atlanta Braves have a roster with at least 20 players under 27 years of age and lead their division by ten games and have only one player in the top fifty and he is at the bottom of the list. Please explain this. Is it possible that Bobby Cox and Fredi Gonzoles are geniuses? Or is it that John Sherholtz has been fooling his piers for all these years as general manager and now president. How many closers have struck out 44% of the batters they have faced? How many all star games has McCann selected to play in? I couLd gone but enough is enough.