2013 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / Twins / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters
Readers with an interest in arbitrary-ish end points will be keen on learning that, among major-league catchers over the last two seasons, Matt Wieters is fourth overall by WAR with a mark of 9.1. Other readers — even those who are entirely wary of arbitrary end points — will recognize that Wieters is projected by ZiPS to produce in 2013 roughly what he averaged between 2011 and -12. In either case, he’s probably one of the five-best catchers in the major leagues.

For as much as it will cost the team — i.e. something like $2.5 million total — experimenting with a platoon of Wilson Betemit and Danny Valencia (or the recently acquired Russ Canzler, as the case may be) at DH isn’t the worst possible idea. Isolating platoon skill requires a considerable number of plate appearances; however, the switch-hitting Betemit has been better against righties (117 wRC+, .350 BABIP, 1752 PA) and Valencia has been better against left-handers (127 wRC+, .343 BABIP, 326 PA).

Pitchers
At first, Chris Tillman was a top prospect in the Mariners system. Then, following a trade, he was a top prospect in the Orioles system. Then, after three underwhelming half-seasons in the majors, he was a relative disappointment. Now, after a 2012 campaign that saw his velocity return and peripherals improve, he appears to be something not unlike an average major-league starter — an accomplishment that oughtn’t be ignored, even if it’s something less than prospect analysts have regarded as Tillman’s ceiling.

The Orioles bullpen accounted for a 13.86 WPA in 2012 — over five wins more than the second-place Texas Rangers by that measure. While certainly an accomplishment for the relief unit, it’s also the case that WPA isn’t predictive in any real sense. To their credit, however, the Baltimore bullpen remains quite strong. One thing to monitor: how the club uses Tommy Hunter, who’s likely to fill a long-relief role. After transitioning from the rotation last season, he saw his fastball velocity increase by 5 mph, and overall improvement in his peripherals.

Bench/Prospects
Following his first professional season, right-hander Dylan Bundy is projected by ZiPS to post league-average per-inning numbers as just a 20-year-old. Insofar as pitching prospects are the very definition of mercurial, there’s no guaranteeing his 2013 season will bring Great Success. That said, it would be surprising to see a less optimistic projection for him in these pages next year. Decidedly not a top prospect, but of some interest to the author, is 29-year-old Antoan Richardson — if only because Richardson used to receive very optimistic defensive marks from the now entirely secret CHONE projection system. A brief inspection of Baseball America’s Minor League Free Agent Tracker reveals that Richardson is now a member of the Minnesota organization.

Here’s a video of Richardson and his excellent Bahamian accent:

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Matt Wieters	B	27	C	582	65	133	27	1	21	78	1	0
J.J. Hardy	R	30	SS	585	71	140	26	2	20	65	0	0
Adam Jones	R	27	CF	660	89	169	31	4	27	83	13	6
Manny Machado	R	20	3B	619	66	143	28	6	18	70	11	6
Nick Markakis	L	29	RF	617	69	155	33	3	14	65	6	2
Jonathan Schoop	R	21	2B	617	67	140	24	3	14	60	9	7
Tyler Kelly	B	24	2B	615	65	144	23	2	7	52	4	4
Yamaico Navarro	R	25	3B	391	44	85	17	2	9	40	9	6
Nate McLouth	L	31	CF	441	53	89	17	2	12	38	11	2
Trayvon Robinson	B	25	CF	447	49	90	14	4	11	44	16	9
Chris Davis	L	27	1B	560	63	130	25	1	25	76	3	2
L.J. Hoes	R	23	LF	620	65	152	23	4	7	57	18	10
Nolan Reimold	R	29	LF	329	38	72	13	1	12	36	6	2
Luis Exposito	R	26	C	404	37	88	21	1	8	41	1	2
Ryan Adams	R	26	2B	452	45	101	24	1	8	38	3	3
Chris Dickerson	L	31	CF	294	34	59	13	2	5	22	14	3
Jim Thome	L	42	DH	221	22	45	9	0	10	32	0	0
Jose Gil	R	26	C	298	28	60	13	0	8	30	3	1
Wilson Betemit	B	31	3B	389	39	87	19	1	13	46	1	1
Alexi Casilla	B	28	2B	341	41	77	16	4	2	28	16	3
Danny Valencia	R	28	3B	553	57	129	28	2	12	64	2	4
Xavier Avery	L	23	CF	610	64	129	22	4	9	36	27	11
Lew Ford	R	36	CF	233	26	52	9	2	8	33	4	1
Jason Pridie	L	29	LF	265	26	60	9	2	6	24	7	2
Brian Roberts	B	35	2B	223	25	49	12	0	4	24	7	2
Russ Canzler	R	27	1B	572	64	123	29	3	18	70	4	4
Conor Jackson	R	31	RF	323	32	72	15	0	5	34	4	1
Travis Ishikawa	L	29	1B	223	21	45	12	1	4	26	1	1
Antoan Richardson	B	29	CF	368	47	67	5	2	1	17	15	4
Taylor Teagarden	R	29	C	199	17	34	7	1	6	21	0	0
Nick Johnson	L	34	DH	176	16	32	6	0	4	14	1	1
Chris Robinson	R	29	C	247	22	57	11	1	1	22	1	2
Jai Miller	R	28	RF	437	45	77	19	1	18	49	6	2
Ryan Flaherty	L	26	LF	450	46	96	18	2	12	53	4	3
Endy Chavez	L	35	RF	229	20	52	9	1	3	16	6	2
Rhyne Hughes	L	29	1B	405	41	81	20	2	12	43	4	2
Bill Hall	R	33	2B	367	36	71	15	1	12	37	3	1
Josh Barfield	R	30	LF	377	34	85	17	2	4	33	9	5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Matt Wieters	582	9.5%	19.1%	.177	.286	.256	.328	.433	.328
J.J. Hardy	585	5.8%	15.2%	.166	.275	.258	.303	.424	.310
Adam Jones	660	4.8%	18.8%	.197	.306	.277	.323	.474	.342
Manny Machado	619	7.1%	19.2%	.166	.289	.252	.309	.418	.313
Nick Markakis	617	8.9%	11.8%	.147	.299	.281	.347	.428	.333
Jonathan Schoop	617	6.2%	19.8%	.128	.292	.248	.302	.376	.293
Tyler Kelly	615	9.1%	15.8%	.088	.306	.262	.334	.350	.303
Yamaico Navarro	391	8.2%	19.4%	.136	.279	.241	.304	.377	.296
Nate McLouth	441	9.8%	18.6%	.148	.263	.231	.317	.379	.305
Trayvon Robinson	447	8.7%	33.6%	.138	.329	.225	.298	.363	.286
Chris Davis	560	6.4%	30.9%	.198	.327	.252	.305	.450	.320
L.J. Hoes	620	7.6%	15.0%	.091	.310	.269	.327	.360	.303
Nolan Reimold	329	8.8%	20.7%	.174	.278	.246	.319	.420	.322
Luis Exposito	404	6.2%	20.8%	.126	.281	.235	.285	.361	.282
Ryan Adams	452	6.2%	25.9%	.120	.316	.242	.295	.362	.286
Chris Dickerson	294	10.2%	27.2%	.124	.307	.229	.308	.353	.297
Jim Thome	221	12.7%	31.7%	.204	.313	.234	.335	.438	.330
Jose Gil	298	6.4%	21.8%	.136	.259	.221	.275	.357	.275
Wilson Betemit	389	8.7%	27.2%	.171	.315	.249	.314	.420	.315
Alexi Casilla	341	6.5%	14.1%	.097	.286	.250	.301	.347	.287
Danny Valencia	553	4.9%	17.5%	.131	.281	.248	.284	.379	.285
Xavier Avery	610	7.7%	25.2%	.105	.312	.236	.301	.341	.282
Lew Ford	233	6.9%	18.9%	.173	.270	.243	.297	.416	.307
Jason Pridie	265	5.7%	22.6%	.125	.295	.242	.284	.367	.284
Brian Roberts	223	8.1%	16.1%	.119	.276	.244	.306	.363	.294
Russ Canzler	572	7.7%	27.3%	.171	.299	.236	.297	.407	.304
Conor Jackson	323	8.7%	13.6%	.104	.275	.247	.316	.351	.296
Travis Ishikawa	223	8.1%	24.7%	.132	.293	.227	.300	.359	.278
Antoan Richardson	368	10.9%	22.8%	.039	.287	.213	.315	.252	.266
Taylor Teagarden	199	8.0%	40.2%	.152	.301	.191	.264	.343	.266
Nick Johnson	176	13.1%	23.9%	.122	.275	.216	.341	.338	.306
Chris Robinson	247	4.0%	15.4%	.069	.289	.247	.282	.316	.260
Jai Miller	437	8.0%	45.3%	.190	.322	.194	.263	.384	.282
Ryan Flaherty	450	6.2%	23.8%	.140	.282	.232	.283	.372	.283
Endy Chavez	229	3.9%	11.8%	.094	.265	.244	.276	.338	.266
Rhyne Hughes	405	6.9%	31.9%	.161	.296	.218	.275	.379	.283
Bill Hall	367	6.5%	37.3%	.156	.306	.209	.262	.365	.272
Josh Barfield	377	3.7%	14.9%	.093	.268	.237	.263	.330	.258

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Matt Wieters	582	5.2	107	7	4.3	Todd Hundley
J.J. Hardy	585	4.7	97	9	3.5	Alex Gonzalez
Adam Jones	660	5.7	115	-4	3.4	Torii Hunter
Manny Machado	619	4.7	97	4	2.7	Steve Buechele
Nick Markakis	617	5.6	111	-4	2.0	Mark Kotsay
Jonathan Schoop	617	4.0	85	0	1.3	Blake Dewitt
Tyler Kelly	615	4.2	88	-2	1.3	Jeff Treadway
Yamaico Navarro	391	4.0	86	3	1.1	Ronnie Merrill
Nate McLouth	441	4.4	90	-3	1.0	Bubba Carpenter
Trayvon Robinson	447	3.7	80	4	1.0	Xavier Paul
Chris Davis	560	5.0	104	-3	1.0	Larry Sheets
L.J. Hoes	620	4.3	89	3	0.9	Dave Gallagher
Nolan Reimold	329	4.9	101	0	0.8	Aaron Guiel
Luis Exposito	404	3.5	76	-1	0.8	Wyatt Toregas
Ryan Adams	452	3.7	79	1	0.8	Travis Denker
Chris Dickerson	294	4.1	81	0	0.7	Pat Sheridan
Jim Thome	221	5.2	110	0	0.6	Reggie Jackson
Jose Gil	298	3.4	72	0	0.6	Jeff Winchester
Wilson Betemit	389	4.7	99	-10	0.5	Mike Blowers
Alexi Casilla	341	4.1	77	-3	0.5	Joe Inglett
Danny Valencia	553	3.7	80	-3	0.4	Josh Klimek
Xavier Avery	610	3.7	76	-3	0.4	Troy O’Leary
Lew Ford	233	4.5	93	-4	0.3	Brian Jordan
Jason Pridie	265	3.8	77	3	0.3	Jalal Leach
Brian Roberts	223	4.1	83	-3	0.2	Dave McKay
Russ Canzler	572	4.2	91	-2	0.2	Brandon Moss
Conor Jackson	323	4.1	83	0	0.2	Virgil Chevalier
Travis Ishikawa	223	3.7	80	3	0.2	John Mabry
Antoan Richardson	368	3.0	59	2	0.1	Lou Frazier
Taylor Teagarden	199	3.0	65	-2	0.1	Jayhawk Owens
Nick Johnson	176	3.9	88	0	0.0	Larry Sutton
Chris Robinson	247	3.1	64	-3	-0.1	Jeff Smith
Jai Miller	437	3.4	75	1	-0.1	Jeff Jones
Ryan Flaherty	450	3.7	78	0	-0.1	Troy Hughes
Endy Chavez	229	3.4	67	0	-0.3	Joe Orsulak
Rhyne Hughes	405	3.6	77	0	-0.3	Justin Sherrod
Bill Hall	367	3.3	70	-6	-0.4	Steve Scarsone
Josh Barfield	377	3.0	62	2	-0.6	Ricky Bell

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jason Hammel	R	30	23	23	133.0	118	44	13	125	59	55
Wei-Yin Chen	L	27	25	24	155.7	84	32	21	160	76	71
Chris Tillman	R	25	31	30	165.7	127	56	23	161	85	79
Dylan Bundy	R	20	28	26	104.0	83	41	11	105	54	50
Tsuyoshi Wada	L	32	17	17	107.7	95	38	17	109	58	54
Miguel Gonzalez	R	29	25	16	102.3	75	41	13	105	56	52
Joe Saunders	L	32	26	26	161.3	90	50	26	183	96	90
Darren O’Day	R	30	58	0	53.3	52	13	7	48	22	21
Randy Wolf	L	36	26	25	153.3	88	53	23	173	93	87
Troy Patton	L	27	55	0	54.7	50	14	6	51	24	22
Jim Johnson	R	30	59	0	61.7	40	16	6	62	28	26
Zach Britton	L	25	26	25	134.0	90	60	16	148	81	76
Jake Arrieta	R	27	28	25	144.7	114	68	20	150	89	83
Pedro Strop	R	28	63	0	62.3	57	33	5	59	30	28
Luis Ayala	R	35	56	0	62.3	42	16	7	66	30	28
Joel Pineiro	R	34	15	14	81.7	42	20	11	95	48	45
Mike Belfiore	L	24	41	0	65.7	57	30	6	64	33	31
Tommy Hunter	R	26	31	21	134.7	77	32	25	157	86	80
Steve Johnson	R	25	28	21	119.0	89	61	19	127	76	71
Zech Zinicola	R	28	29	0	33.3	27	13	4	35	18	17
Zach Braddock	L	25	39	0	33.3	36	19	4	31	18	17
T.J. McFarland	L	24	26	26	140.3	69	60	18	163	92	86
Brian Matusz	L	26	33	23	131.0	98	55	21	148	86	80
Stuart Pomeranz	R	28	20	0	25.0	21	10	3	26	14	13
Robert Hinton	R	28	44	0	59.0	47	23	8	63	34	32
Daniel McCutchen	R	30	50	0	67.3	41	27	9	75	41	38
Rich Rundles	L	32	24	0	25.3	17	12	3	28	16	15
Rob Delaney	R	28	51	0	64.7	42	26	9	72	40	37
Miguel Socolovich	R	26	44	0	64.0	51	36	9	66	40	37
Daniel Schlereth	L	27	38	0	40.3	36	30	5	40	26	24
Zach Clark	R	29	25	21	123.3	52	52	16	153	86	80
Adam Russell	R	30	49	0	51.7	33	39	6	57	35	33
Jair Jurrjens	R	27	23	23	122.7	64	42	24	151	88	82
Manny Delcarmen	R	31	38	0	47.0	33	36	8	52	35	33
Mark Hendrickson	L	39	27	0	54.3	23	21	11	69	42	39

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jason Hammel	133.0	568	20.8%	7.7%	.287	3.72	3.69	88	88
Wei-Yin Chen	155.7	659	12.7%	4.9%	.269	4.10	4.58	97	109
Chris Tillman	165.7	714	17.8%	7.8%	.275	4.29	4.59	102	109
Dylan Bundy	104.0	458	18.1%	9.0%	.297	4.33	4.34	103	103
Tsuyoshi Wada	107.7	470	20.2%	8.1%	.291	4.51	4.63	107	110
Miguel Gonzalez	102.3	453	16.6%	9.1%	.289	4.57	4.71	108	112
Joe Saunders	161.3	717	12.6%	7.0%	.287	5.02	5.10	119	121
Darren O’Day	53.3	221	23.5%	5.9%	.281	3.54	3.78	84	90
Randy Wolf	153.3	686	12.8%	7.7%	.292	5.11	5.13	121	122
Troy Patton	54.7	229	21.8%	6.1%	.286	3.62	3.54	86	84
Jim Johnson	61.7	263	15.2%	6.1%	.281	3.79	3.92	90	93
Zach Britton	134.0	610	14.8%	9.8%	.301	5.10	4.77	121	113
Jake Arrieta	144.7	652	17.5%	10.4%	.293	5.16	4.89	122	116
Pedro Strop	62.3	279	20.4%	11.8%	.300	4.04	4.07	96	97
Luis Ayala	62.3	269	15.6%	6.0%	.295	4.04	4.11	96	97
Joel Pineiro	81.7	360	11.7%	5.6%	.295	4.96	4.63	118	110
Mike Belfiore	65.7	291	19.6%	10.3%	.297	4.25	4.09	101	97
Tommy Hunter	134.7	593	13.0%	5.4%	.291	5.35	5.25	127	125
Steve Johnson	119.0	545	16.3%	11.2%	.292	5.37	5.42	127	129
Zech Zinicola	33.3	148	18.3%	8.8%	.304	4.59	4.38	109	104
Zach Braddock	33.3	150	24.0%	12.7%	.304	4.59	4.38	109	104
T.J. McFarland	140.3	644	10.7%	9.3%	.297	5.52	5.33	131	127
Brian Matusz	131.0	596	16.4%	9.2%	.304	5.50	5.05	131	120
Stuart Pomeranz	25.0	111	18.9%	9.0%	.307	4.68	4.50	111	107
Robert Hinton	59.0	263	17.9%	8.7%	.302	4.88	4.62	116	110
Daniel McCutchen	67.3	304	13.5%	8.9%	.296	5.08	4.90	121	116
Rich Rundles	25.3	116	14.7%	10.4%	.305	5.33	4.91	127	117
Rob Delaney	64.7	292	14.4%	8.9%	.298	5.15	4.94	122	117
Miguel Socolovich	64.0	294	17.3%	12.2%	.292	5.20	5.19	123	123
Daniel Schlereth	40.3	191	18.9%	15.7%	.299	5.36	5.23	127	124
Zach Clark	123.3	575	9.0%	9.0%	.307	5.84	5.45	139	129
Adam Russell	51.7	251	13.1%	15.5%	.302	5.75	5.84	136	139
Jair Jurrjens	122.7	561	11.4%	7.5%	.297	6.02	5.73	143	136
Manny Delcarmen	47.0	229	14.4%	15.7%	.295	6.32	6.47	150	154
Mark Hendrickson	54.3	253	9.1%	8.3%	.298	6.46	6.23	153	148

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Jason Hammel	133.0	7.98	2.98	0.88	115	3.1	A.J. Burnett
Wei-Yin Chen	155.7	4.86	1.85	1.21	104	2.9	Rick Honeycutt
Chris Tillman	165.7	6.90	3.04	1.25	100	2.7	Jose Guzman
Dylan Bundy	104.0	7.18	3.55	0.95	99	1.6	Josh Johnson
Tsuyoshi Wada	107.7	7.94	3.18	1.42	95	1.4	Randy Wolf
Miguel Gonzalez	102.3	6.60	3.61	1.14	94	1.2	Brandon Backe
Joe Saunders	161.3	5.02	2.79	1.45	85	1.2	Kirk Rueter
Darren O’Day	53.3	8.78	2.20	1.18	121	0.9	Mike Schooler
Randy Wolf	153.3	5.17	3.11	1.35	84	0.9	Bob Knepper
Troy Patton	54.7	8.23	2.30	0.99	118	0.9	Mike Stanton
Jim Johnson	61.7	5.83	2.33	0.88	113	0.9	Kent Tekulve
Zach Britton	134.0	6.04	4.03	1.07	84	0.8	Harold Allen
Jake Arrieta	144.7	7.09	4.23	1.24	83	0.8	Ryan Bowen
Pedro Strop	62.3	8.23	4.77	0.72	106	0.7	Bryce Florie
Luis Ayala	62.3	6.07	2.31	1.01	106	0.7	Joe Slusarski
Joel Pineiro	81.7	4.63	2.20	1.21	86	0.6	Jason Johnson
Mike Belfiore	65.7	7.81	4.11	0.82	101	0.6	Felix Heredia
Tommy Hunter	134.7	5.14	2.14	1.67	80	0.4	Josh Towers
Steve Johnson	119.0	6.73	4.61	1.44	80	0.3	Tyler Walker
Zech Zinicola	33.3	7.30	3.51	1.08	93	0.2	Tim Layana
Zach Braddock	33.3	9.73	5.14	1.08	93	0.2	Darren Oliver
T.J. McFarland	140.3	4.43	3.85	1.15	78	0.2	Lee Guetterman
Brian Matusz	131.0	6.73	3.78	1.44	78	0.1	Dan Serafini
Stuart Pomeranz	25.0	7.56	3.60	1.08	92	0.1	Tim Layana
Robert Hinton	59.0	7.17	3.51	1.22	88	0.1	Lee Gronkiewicz
Daniel McCutchen	67.3	5.48	3.61	1.20	84	-0.1	Weston Weber
Rich Rundles	25.3	6.05	4.27	1.07	80	-0.1	Mike Venafro
Rob Delaney	64.7	5.84	3.62	1.25	83	-0.1	Weston Weber
Miguel Socolovich	64.0	7.17	5.06	1.27	82	-0.2	Terry Bross
Daniel Schlereth	40.3	8.04	6.70	1.12	80	-0.2	Steve Colyer
Zach Clark	123.3	3.80	3.80	1.17	73	-0.4	Dana Kiecker
Adam Russell	51.7	5.74	6.79	1.04	75	-0.5	Jerry Johnson
Jair Jurrjens	122.7	4.69	3.08	1.76	71	-0.6	Chris Baker
Manny Delcarmen	47.0	6.32	6.89	1.53	68	-0.8	Jarod Juelsgaard
Mark Hendrickson	54.3	3.81	3.48	1.82	66	-1.0	Boom-Boom Beck

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.