2013 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

by
January 7, 2013

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels of You-Know-Where. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Astros / Athletics / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
It’s impossible to ignore the very optimistic projection for 2012’s Champion of WAR, Mike Trout — so, let’s not. While an eight-win season is certainly aggressive so far as a forecast is concerned — if for no other reason than only two or three players surpass the eight-win threshold per year — it’s also the case that ZiPS is being at least somewhat conservative with regard to Trout, forecasting him to hit fewer home runs, steal fewer bases, post a considerably lower BABIP, and save fewer runs afield in 2013 than in 2012.

Otherwise, the Angels are almost uniformly above average: with the exception of Mark Trumbo, every starter is projected to post a (rounded) WAR of 3.0 or greater.

Pitchers
Because the author isn’t particularly great at his job, he’s failed to ask Dan Szymborksi what the record might be among starting pitchers for the projected difference between their ERA-minuses and FIP-minuses. In any case, Jered Weaver‘s difference of 10 points (77 ERA-, 87 FIP-) must be close — and is greater, for example, than Matt Cain’s eight-point separation (78 ERA-, 86 FIP-) by that same measure, despite Cain’s own reputation for preventing runs above and beyond his defense-independent metrics.

Missing the entirety of the 2012 season predictably suppresses likely closer Ryan Madson’s innings projection to 42 — despite the fact that he’s never thrown fewer than 53 innings during any season in which he’s been actually healthy. If he returns to his previous form, however, ZiPS foresees him being quite capable of throwing quality high-leverage innings.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.

Bench/Prospects
According to Cot’s Contracts, outfielder Vernon Wells is expected to make just under $25 million in both 2013 and ’14. That’s a lot to pay a bench player, but that appears to be what role Wells is most likely to fill in 2013. Somewhat troubling is ZiPS’ assessment of right-hander Garrett Richards, who, despite sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball, has yet to prove that his stuff will translate to the major-league level.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Angels, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Angels Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Mike Trout R 21 CF 695 122 171 28 11 29 83 47 8
Albert Pujols R 33 1B 638 88 161 37 0 31 94 10 2
Josh Hamilton L 32 LF 584 73 140 28 3 26 86 7 2
Erick Aybar B 29 SS 601 72 153 29 6 8 48 23 6
Howie Kendrick R 29 2B 614 68 155 32 4 12 70 14 6
Peter Bourjos R 26 CF 471 63 106 17 8 10 47 18 6
Alberto Callaspo B 30 3B 553 58 132 23 1 10 55 5 2
Mark Trumbo R 27 LF 596 67 146 24 2 31 94 6 5
Chris Iannetta R 30 C 333 33 63 10 1 11 37 2 2
Vernon Wells R 34 LF 449 53 104 20 2 17 52 7 3
Hank Conger B 25 C 409 39 90 17 1 8 41 1 1
Luis Jimenez R 25 3B 588 61 137 35 3 12 69 13 7
Tommy Field R 26 SS 550 47 103 20 3 8 42 6 3
Kole Calhoun L 25 RF 557 59 118 25 4 12 58 11 4
Andrew Romine L 27 SS 494 48 104 11 4 3 31 17 8
Travis Witherspoon R 24 CF 573 56 111 17 3 11 43 24 10
Angel Sanchez R 29 SS 428 45 95 14 2 2 37 4 2
Luis Rodriguez B 33 2B 330 34 74 13 1 5 34 3 4
John Hester R 29 C 302 33 61 12 1 6 26 2 2
Luke Carlin B 32 C 262 27 50 8 0 3 22 1 1
Scott Cousins L 28 RF 345 38 71 13 3 6 31 9 4
Trent Oeltjen L 30 RF 458 48 94 18 5 8 43 13 6
J.B. Shuck L 26 LF 520 57 115 14 5 0 32 12 8
Paul McAnulty L 32 1B 481 44 93 22 1 14 51 1 2
Brendan Harris R 32 3B 464 39 94 21 2 5 36 1 2
Efren Navarro L 27 1B 597 57 133 27 2 6 51 3 3
Doug Deeds L 32 LF 369 34 74 17 3 5 28 4 3
Matt Young L 30 RF 488 55 94 16 4 2 25 16 6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Mike Trout 695 10.2% 20.7% .225 .322 .282 .361 .507 .378
Albert Pujols 638 9.9% 11.3% .231 .278 .285 .359 .516 .354
Josh Hamilton 584 8.2% 22.3% .214 .303 .267 .329 .481 .335
Erick Aybar 601 4.7% 11.5% .117 .301 .276 .316 .393 .308
Howie Kendrick 614 4.9% 17.8% .133 .316 .272 .314 .405 .309
Peter Bourjos 471 5.7% 21.7% .148 .302 .248 .302 .396 .302
Alberto Callaspo 553 8.9% 9.6% .111 .278 .265 .330 .376 .307
Mark Trumbo 596 5.7% 24.2% .218 .300 .263 .309 .481 .333
Chris Iannetta 333 12.9% 24.0% .160 .269 .224 .334 .384 .314
Vernon Wells 449 5.3% 14.9% .178 .257 .248 .290 .426 .308
Hank Conger 409 7.3% 18.3% .115 .282 .243 .300 .358 .285
Luis Jimenez 588 3.1% 16.7% .139 .277 .247 .274 .386 .282
Tommy Field 550 7.3% 25.3% .102 .273 .209 .279 .311 .261
Kole Calhoun 557 7.5% 23.0% .136 .286 .232 .294 .368 .292
Andrew Romine 494 6.3% 19.2% .063 .287 .232 .287 .295 .256
Travis Witherspoon 573 6.6% 27.6% .106 .277 .210 .267 .316 .261
Angel Sanchez 428 6.5% 12.4% .062 .278 .245 .298 .307 .264
Luis Rodriguez 330 8.2% 11.2% .102 .270 .251 .317 .353 .291
John Hester 302 6.6% 26.8% .116 .288 .221 .277 .337 .266
Luke Carlin 262 10.3% 20.2% .074 .266 .216 .299 .290 .264
Scott Cousins 345 5.8% 26.4% .116 .290 .223 .271 .339 .263
Trent Oeltjen 458 6.3% 28.6% .126 .308 .227 .285 .353 .273
J.B. Shuck 520 8.7% 11.5% .051 .279 .244 .311 .295 .269
Paul McAnulty 481 7.9% 25.6% .151 .261 .213 .279 .364 .279
Brendan Harris 464 6.0% 17.0% .094 .259 .222 .277 .316 .261
Efren Navarro 597 5.0% 15.6% .088 .274 .239 .277 .327 .263
Doug Deeds 369 5.7% 26.6% .111 .288 .217 .267 .328 .258
Matt Young 488 9.8% 17.8% .069 .267 .218 .300 .287 .266

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Mike Trout 695 7.5 142 8 8.0 Matt Kemp
Albert Pujols 638 7.1 144 4 5.3 Orlando Cepeda
Josh Hamilton 584 5.9 126 5 3.8 Chick Hafey
Erick Aybar 601 4.9 99 0 3.2 Tony Fernandez
Howie Kendrick 614 4.8 102 2 3.0 Jim Davenport
Peter Bourjos 471 4.4 96 11 2.8 Shane Victorino
Alberto Callaspo 553 4.6 99 4 2.7 Bill Mueller
Mark Trumbo 596 5.4 119 -5 2.3 Richie Sexson
Chris Iannetta 333 4.4 103 -1 1.8 Mike Fitzgerald
Vernon Wells 449 4.5 99 2 1.3 Hoot Evers
Hank Conger 409 3.8 86 -4 1.2 Walt McKeel
Luis Jimenez 588 3.8 84 -4 1.0 Angel Chavez
Tommy Field 550 3.0 67 0 0.9 Ricky Magdaleno
Kole Calhoun 557 3.9 86 1 0.8 Darren Burton
Andrew Romine 494 3.0 65 -1 0.6 Kevin Castleberry
Travis Witherspoon 573 3.0 65 3 0.5 Barry Wesson
Angel Sanchez 428 3.3 72 -4 0.5 Joe Funaro
Luis Rodriguez 330 3.9 90 -5 0.3 Nelson Liriano
John Hester 302 3.2 73 -4 0.3 Dwight Lowry
Luke Carlin 262 2.9 68 -2 0.3 Bob Swift
Scott Cousins 345 3.2 71 3 0.2 Jalal Leach
Trent Oeltjen 458 3.5 79 0 0.1 Michael Tucker
J.B. Shuck 520 3.2 73 3 -0.1 Steve Stanley
Paul McAnulty 481 3.4 80 0 -0.1 Jody Davis
Brendan Harris 464 3.0 68 -4 -0.1 Jorge Velandia
Efren Navarro 597 3.2 70 5 -0.3 Chad Chop
Doug Deeds 369 3.0 68 0 -0.3 Todd Dunwoody
Matt Young 488 3.1 68 -5 -0.8 Jarvis Brown

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Jered Weaver R 30 31 31 203.0 176 49 20 171 73 68
C.J. Wilson L 32 31 31 193.3 169 79 15 172 80 75
Tommy Hanson R 26 29 29 169.7 149 57 22 166 79 74
Jason Vargas L 30 29 29 186.0 118 48 26 189 96 90
Ernesto Frieri R 27 66 0 66.0 85 32 7 48 24 22
Joe Blanton R 32 21 20 130.3 98 25 19 140 70 65
Nick Maronde L 23 24 15 78.7 54 27 8 81 40 37
Jerome Williams R 31 28 17 129.7 86 33 17 140 71 66
Ryan Madson R 32 44 0 42.0 40 11 3 38 16 15
Sean Burnett L 30 68 0 56.3 48 17 5 54 24 22
Scott Downs L 37 54 0 45.0 33 14 4 42 19 18
Kevin Jepsen R 28 63 0 58.7 50 23 5 56 28 26
LaTroy Hawkins R 40 45 0 40.3 24 13 4 43 20 19
Ryan Brasier R 25 56 0 58.3 42 29 5 58 30 28
Jason Isringhausen R 40 43 0 38.0 29 17 5 38 20 19
Steve Geltz R 25 43 0 52.3 51 28 7 48 28 26
David Carpenter R 27 54 0 59.7 45 25 8 61 32 30
Jo-Jo Reyes L 28 21 14 82.0 51 28 12 93 50 47
Mitch Stetter L 32 36 0 26.0 21 14 4 27 16 15
Michael Kohn R 27 48 0 48.0 43 28 7 47 28 26
Brandon Sisk L 27 46 0 61.7 48 34 8 62 36 34
Garrett Richards R 25 34 23 133.3 83 63 16 153 85 79
Sean White R 32 39 1 51.0 26 31 5 58 33 31
Bobby Cassevah R 27 53 0 62.0 32 32 7 68 39 36
Barry Enright R 27 27 27 146.7 84 62 26 162 95 89
Brad Mills L 28 23 22 121.3 77 50 18 143 80 75
Billy Buckner R 29 22 22 119.3 61 53 18 137 79 74
Andrew Taylor L 26 42 7 72.7 40 49 12 88 57 53

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jered Weaver 203.0 829 21.2% 5.9% .260 3.01 3.41 77 87
C.J. Wilson 193.3 831 20.3% 9.5% .280 3.49 3.69 89 94
Tommy Hanson 169.7 732 20.4% 7.8% .290 3.93 4.08 100 104
Jason Vargas 186.0 795 14.8% 6.0% .272 4.35 4.43 111 113
Ernesto Frieri 66.0 278 30.6% 11.5% .279 3.00 3.58 76 91
Joe Blanton 130.3 556 17.6% 4.5% .294 4.49 4.06 114 103
Nick Maronde 78.7 344 15.7% 7.8% .292 4.23 4.26 108 109
Jerome Williams 129.7 562 15.3% 5.9% .293 4.58 4.35 117 111
Ryan Madson 42.0 175 22.9% 6.3% .294 3.21 2.76 82 70
Sean Burnett 56.3 240 20.0% 7.1% .292 3.51 3.40 89 87
Scott Downs 45.0 191 17.3% 7.3% .273 3.60 3.65 92 93
Kevin Jepsen 58.7 255 19.6% 9.0% .293 3.99 3.67 102 94
LaTroy Hawkins 40.3 177 13.6% 7.3% .287 4.24 4.09 108 104
Ryan Brasier 58.3 262 16.0% 11.1% .290 4.32 4.42 110 112
Jason Isringhausen 38.0 169 17.2% 10.1% .280 4.50 4.46 115 114
Steve Geltz 52.3 233 21.9% 12.0% .285 4.47 4.55 114 116
David Carpenter 59.7 265 17.0% 9.4% .289 4.53 4.64 115 118
Jo-Jo Reyes 82.0 367 13.9% 7.6% .299 5.16 4.96 131 126
Mitch Stetter 26.0 119 17.6% 11.8% .295 5.19 5.21 132 133
Michael Kohn 48.0 219 19.6% 12.8% .288 4.88 5.07 124 129
Brandon Sisk 61.7 281 17.1% 12.1% .289 4.96 5.02 126 128
Garrett Richards 133.3 616 13.5% 10.2% .307 5.33 4.99 136 127
Sean White 51.0 242 10.7% 12.8% .299 5.47 5.29 139 135
Bobby Cassevah 62.0 286 11.2% 11.2% .288 5.23 5.13 133 131
Barry Enright 146.7 664 12.6% 9.3% .280 5.46 5.62 139 143
Brad Mills 121.3 557 13.8% 9.0% .309 5.56 5.14 142 131
Billy Buckner 119.3 548 11.1% 9.7% .291 5.58 5.52 142 141
Andrew Taylor 72.7 355 11.3% 13.8% .305 6.56 6.37 167 162

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Jered Weaver 203.0 7.80 2.17 0.89 127 4.9 Andy Benes
C.J. Wilson 193.3 7.87 3.68 0.70 110 3.6 Doug Davis
Tommy Hanson 169.7 7.90 3.02 1.17 98 2.2 Jack McDowell
Jason Vargas 186.0 5.71 2.32 1.26 88 1.5 Carlos Perez
Ernesto Frieri 66.0 11.59 4.36 0.95 128 1.0 Armando Benitez
Joe Blanton 130.3 6.77 1.73 1.31 86 0.8 Josh Towers
Nick Maronde 78.7 6.18 3.09 0.91 91 0.7 Steve Cooke
Jerome Williams 129.7 5.97 2.29 1.18 84 0.6 James Baldwin
Ryan Madson 42.0 8.57 2.36 0.64 119 0.5 Rod Beck
Sean Burnett 56.3 7.67 2.72 0.80 109 0.5 Chuck McElroy
Scott Downs 45.0 6.60 2.80 0.80 107 0.4 Vic Darensbourg
Kevin Jepsen 58.7 7.67 3.53 0.77 96 0.2 Brandon Kolb
LaTroy Hawkins 40.3 5.36 2.90 0.89 91 0.0 Boom-Boom Beck
Ryan Brasier 58.3 6.48 4.48 0.77 89 0.0 Joel Moore
Jason Isringhausen 38.0 6.87 4.03 1.18 85 -0.1 Jose Mesa
Steve Geltz 52.3 8.78 4.82 1.20 86 -0.1 Rafael Pimentel
David Carpenter 59.7 6.78 3.77 1.21 85 -0.2 Brendan Donnelly
Jo-Jo Reyes 82.0 5.60 3.07 1.32 74 -0.2 David Davidson
Mitch Stetter 26.0 7.27 4.85 1.38 74 -0.3 Eddie Oropesa
Michael Kohn 48.0 8.06 5.25 1.31 79 -0.4 Tom Shearn
Brandon Sisk 61.7 7.00 4.96 1.17 77 -0.5 Leo Vasquez
Garrett Richards 133.3 5.60 4.25 1.08 72 -0.6 Adam Russell
Sean White 51.0 4.59 5.47 0.88 70 -0.7 Jerry Johnson
Bobby Cassevah 62.0 4.65 4.65 1.02 73 -0.7 Mike Zimmerman
Barry Enright 146.7 5.15 3.80 1.60 70 -0.8 Brett Roberts
Brad Mills 121.3 5.71 3.71 1.34 69 -0.8 Mike Prochaska
Billy Buckner 119.3 4.60 4.00 1.36 69 -0.8 Mike Heathcott
Andrew Taylor 72.7 4.95 6.07 1.49 59 -1.7 Sean Whiteside

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

39 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Coop!
13 years ago

No comps for pitchers?!

1
Carson CistulliMember
13 years ago
Reply to  Coop!

Got cut off. Fixed now. Thanks.

1
Coop!
13 years ago
Reply to  Carson Cistulli

no, no thank you sir.

2
Adam R
13 years ago

All very nice, BUT WHERE IN THE @#$^*@&^#$ IS FANGRAPHS AUDIO???

1
Well-Beered Englishman
13 years ago
Reply to  Adam R

I’ve had to while my cooking/washing/cleaning time listening to Comedy Bang Bang these past few weeks. Not that I mind terribly.

0
Adam R
13 years ago
Reply to  Well-Beered Englishman

I hear you. If one day I’m unable to repress massive amounts of household-cleaning-related angst because there’s been no Fangraphs Audio to enjoy while washing dishes, that’s blood on Cistulli’s hands, as far as I’m concerned.

Just a few notes of Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass…and it’s goodbye, cathexis.

1
touqianzhuang
13 years ago

The one thing that jumped out was the projection on Hamilton, which seemed crazy low, though his career has been weird enough that he probably breaks all the projection systems.

0
jeromesdome
13 years ago
Reply to  touqianzhuang

Yeah, seems weird. Maybe they’re thinking a post-contract lull? I don’t see any world where he only hits 26 HRs, a 38% drop off from last year.

1
David
13 years ago
Reply to  jeromesdome

It’s the world where he suffers one significant or multiple minor nagging injuries, and misses 50 games.

2
BobbyS
13 years ago
Reply to  jeromesdome

A small bit of that is simple regression and a base projection… I’d guess his odds for more are pretty nice. But, also… there’s the park factor, which looks to be a near extreme opposite from Texas. With a full season of ~650 PA, he’s still a good bet for 30+

1
James
13 years ago
Reply to  jeromesdome

He’s play 150+ games once in his career. He’s 31 years old.

2
Darren
13 years ago

This is an interesting team, and one I can see winning 95+ games. I saw an article from Cameron on ESPN that thought they didnt improve at all, which may be true from their signings and trades. But this team seemed to be very unlucky last year. On a team WAR stand-point I think the 2012 team was around a 95 win team, largely due to the world’s best offence. Further, a lot of their pitching woes came from some terrible RPs that are not on the team any longer, and Ervin Santana. As of now, I think these guys are a few games ahead of the Rangers on paper.

2
Baltar
13 years ago
Reply to  Darren

You are very close with your 95+ to the rough, invalid projection of 96 obtained by adding 45 (all-replacement team) to the 51 total on the depth chart.
The previous high was 92 for the Nationals. I think the Rangers were around 88, though I am not certain.
I’m really curious to see the Rays’ projections.

-2
BobbyS
13 years ago

Boom Boom Beck. Best comp name?

1
Atari
13 years ago
Reply to  BobbyS

I had never even heard of the name, but it just jumps off the page. My goal was to have him trend for player page lookups on the home page but it seems like that has been removed with the new re-design of the home page. 🙁

0
johnnycuff
13 years ago

Gotta take the under on the Weaver projection. Turning 30, with his K rate and velocity falling 3 years in a row, there’s no way he posts those kinds of numbers.

Also, there’s a player named (and not even nicknamed!) boom-boom?! Awesome.

0
Derb
13 years ago
Reply to  johnnycuff

His name is Walter. Not sure on the origin of the nickname, but it is pretty rad.

1
BobbyS
13 years ago
Reply to  Derb

According to Wiki (best source ever?!:-/)… ” His nickname, Boom-Boom, was earned while pitching at Baker Bowl against the Phillies in 1934. He allowed numerous line drives that struck the outfield wall, each time making a booming sound. Manager Casey Stengel sought to remove Beck from the game. Frustrated with his performance and for being removed, Beck threw the baseball at the outfield wall, where it hit and made another booming sound.” Boom-Boom!!!!

1
Joe
13 years ago

Well, if LaTroy Hawkins looks half as good as Boom-Boom Beck, the Angels will be sitting pretty.

0
King Donko of Punchstania
13 years ago

ZiPS has yet to project a single .300 BA. I’m new to ZiPS, are the projections typically conservative?

2
James
13 years ago
Reply to  King Donko of Punchstania

Yes, quite conservative compared to BJ and fans.

1
Dan Szymborski
13 years ago
Reply to  King Donko of Punchstania

ZiPS projects there *will* be .300 batting averages, but of the teams posted, no individual is *more* likely to have a .300 batting average than not. It’s an important distinction. If your mean projections don’t have a tighter spread than yearly final totals, you’re doing something wrong.

1
philosofool
13 years ago
Reply to  King Donko of Punchstania

Only twenty players have a .300+ average through the last two seasons. No one not on that list will get a .300+ projection. Many of the guys very close to .300 won’t either.

That leaves you with a shot list of guys you would really expect to get a .300 projection. Cabrera, Votto, and Beltre are the only guys I would see as near locks to get such a projection.

-1
IZZY2112
13 years ago
Reply to  philosofool

Beltre was already projected to hit .296.

2
jfree
13 years ago

Looks like LA is gonna have some great baseball this summer.

3
shubox
13 years ago

So I guess Trout regressed to the “mean?” What a beast…

2
TKDC
13 years ago

What would Trout project at as a CF? I’d imagine he is losing a touch of value by having to play LF. That makes the 8 WAR seem even more bullish to me. I think the HR total will drop a lot more.

-1
Baltar
13 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

8 WAR projection for a sophomore is staggering. That means 10 WAR would not be surprising.

-1
Ivan Grushenko
13 years ago
Reply to  Baltar

Well sure, he had 10 WAR in 2012. Repeating it wouldn’t be surprising at all. I guess 6 WAR would be a disappointment. Wow.

-1
jim
13 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

trout is projecting as a CF

0
Tim A
13 years ago

The rotation is leaving a lot to hopes and dreams, can Weaver maintain dominance and health, will Wilson really step up, can Hanson still pitch too his previous ability at all, is Blanton above replacement level, will road Vargas be what they get, can Williams or Richard give them even replacement level production if one of the starters goes down, and most importantly does the team have any depth behind those seven, or prospect depth to acquire it? That is a lot of praying for best case scenarios in my opinion, with a lot of regression in the wrong direction with several options. They are, in my opinion, Weavers arm breaking away from being the ’12 Redsox Rotation. Colorado scored a lot last year where did it get them without pitching?

P.S. look for Madson to look like Nathan did his first year back for a while.

-2
KrunchyGoodness
13 years ago
Reply to  Tim A

Their rotation was actually pretty bad last year. They also under-performed their WAR total by about 3 wins last year. Put in some league average starting pitchers, trim the bullpen of dead weight, have what is by far the best position player roster in all of baseball, and you’ve got yourselves a playoff team. Their rotation doesn’t need to be that good, it just needs to be better than horrible.

1
Robert LMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  KrunchyGoodness

Exactly. Their pitchers total WAR in 2012 was 10. Easily the lowest of any competitive team.

0
Big JgkeMember since 2020
13 years ago

Mark Trumbo to Richie Sexson is about as accurate a comp as I could imagine.

1
Brian
13 years ago

So basically, the Angels are projected to win at least 95 games by raw context (51 WAR not including last four spots on the bench), assuming the baseline of a replacement level 25 man roster is 44 wins? I have a hard time seeing that. I love Trout, but if he’s playing LF instead of CF while posting an .870 OPS with his defense and baserunning adding a win each, that sounds more like a 6 win player, maybe 7. I think the rotation at the top is overrated by at least two wins as well, and that doesn’t include the 15-20 starts I think they’ll need from someone in AAA when Hanson inevitably goes under the knife. It may seem to be splitting hairs, but this is more of a good 90 win team than a great 95 win one.

-1
maqman
13 years ago

They should have a better record this year with just average luck but I think 90 wins is about their ceiling. Hamilton can hit them out of any park but some of his Arlington dingers are going to be doubles or outs at Angels Stadium. I don’t see Pujols getting any better at this point in his career, ditto Wells and their rotation looks only a little better than average thanks to their bats and OF. The Astros will make the other AL West teams records look a bit better so they might get to 92 wins.

0
Experiment 626
13 years ago

Wells is going to have a positive WAR? Broken!

1
Wow
13 years ago

The josh Hamilton projections are way wrong. How do u figure aybar and Howie will hit more doubles than Hamilton? I get u thik park factors will lower his home run totals, but he should still hit plenty of doubles. Look at ap doules last year. Why can’t josh do the same? No way he hits less than 30 and 100 RBI unless he plays in under 120 games. And there’s no way Albert won’t hit over .300 again this year. Computers don’t realize how hot he was minus that month long slump…he was one of the best hitters in baseball after April. Also how in the heck do u figure Peter bourjos will oly steal 18 bases in a full season. U computer geeks are way off. Wy don’t I watch baseball instead of relying on computers. Trout with 170 hits in almost 700 pa is ridiculous as well.

-1
Shouldn't hit a man
13 years ago

They’re just comparing David Carpenter to Brendan Donnelly because they both wear glasses !

1