2013 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels of You-Know-Where. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Astros / Athletics / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
It’s impossible to ignore the very optimistic projection for 2012’s Champion of WAR, Mike Trout — so, let’s not. While an eight-win season is certainly aggressive so far as a forecast is concerned — if for no other reason than only two or three players surpass the eight-win threshold per year — it’s also the case that ZiPS is being at least somewhat conservative with regard to Trout, forecasting him to hit fewer home runs, steal fewer bases, post a considerably lower BABIP, and save fewer runs afield in 2013 than in 2012.

Otherwise, the Angels are almost uniformly above average: with the exception of Mark Trumbo, every starter is projected to post a (rounded) WAR of 3.0 or greater.

Pitchers
Because the author isn’t particularly great at his job, he’s failed to ask Dan Szymborksi what the record might be among starting pitchers for the projected difference between their ERA-minuses and FIP-minuses. In any case, Jered Weaver‘s difference of 10 points (77 ERA-, 87 FIP-) must be close — and is greater, for example, than Matt Cain’s eight-point separation (78 ERA-, 86 FIP-) by that same measure, despite Cain’s own reputation for preventing runs above and beyond his defense-independent metrics.

Missing the entirety of the 2012 season predictably suppresses likely closer Ryan Madson’s innings projection to 42 — despite the fact that he’s never thrown fewer than 53 innings during any season in which he’s been actually healthy. If he returns to his previous form, however, ZiPS foresees him being quite capable of throwing quality high-leverage innings.

Bench/Prospects
According to Cot’s Contracts, outfielder Vernon Wells is expected to make just under $25 million in both 2013 and ’14. That’s a lot to pay a bench player, but that appears to be what role Wells is most likely to fill in 2013. Somewhat troubling is ZiPS’ assessment of right-hander Garrett Richards, who, despite sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball, has yet to prove that his stuff will translate to the major-league level.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Angels, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Mike Trout	R	21	CF	695	122	171	28	11	29	83	47	8
Albert Pujols	R	33	1B	638	88	161	37	0	31	94	10	2
Josh Hamilton	L	32	LF	584	73	140	28	3	26	86	7	2
Erick Aybar	B	29	SS	601	72	153	29	6	8	48	23	6
Howie Kendrick	R	29	2B	614	68	155	32	4	12	70	14	6
Peter Bourjos	R	26	CF	471	63	106	17	8	10	47	18	6
Alberto Callaspo	B	30	3B	553	58	132	23	1	10	55	5	2
Mark Trumbo	R	27	LF	596	67	146	24	2	31	94	6	5
Chris Iannetta	R	30	C	333	33	63	10	1	11	37	2	2
Vernon Wells	R	34	LF	449	53	104	20	2	17	52	7	3
Hank Conger	B	25	C	409	39	90	17	1	8	41	1	1
Luis Jimenez	R	25	3B	588	61	137	35	3	12	69	13	7
Tommy Field	R	26	SS	550	47	103	20	3	8	42	6	3
Kole Calhoun	L	25	RF	557	59	118	25	4	12	58	11	4
Andrew Romine	L	27	SS	494	48	104	11	4	3	31	17	8
Travis Witherspoon	R	24	CF	573	56	111	17	3	11	43	24	10
Angel Sanchez	R	29	SS	428	45	95	14	2	2	37	4	2
Luis Rodriguez	B	33	2B	330	34	74	13	1	5	34	3	4
John Hester	R	29	C	302	33	61	12	1	6	26	2	2
Luke Carlin	B	32	C	262	27	50	8	0	3	22	1	1
Scott Cousins	L	28	RF	345	38	71	13	3	6	31	9	4
Trent Oeltjen	L	30	RF	458	48	94	18	5	8	43	13	6
J.B. Shuck	L	26	LF	520	57	115	14	5	0	32	12	8
Paul McAnulty	L	32	1B	481	44	93	22	1	14	51	1	2
Brendan Harris	R	32	3B	464	39	94	21	2	5	36	1	2
Efren Navarro	L	27	1B	597	57	133	27	2	6	51	3	3
Doug Deeds	L	32	LF	369	34	74	17	3	5	28	4	3
Matt Young	L	30	RF	488	55	94	16	4	2	25	16	6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Mike Trout	695	10.2%	20.7%	.225	.322	.282	.361	.507	.378
Albert Pujols	638	9.9%	11.3%	.231	.278	.285	.359	.516	.354
Josh Hamilton	584	8.2%	22.3%	.214	.303	.267	.329	.481	.335
Erick Aybar	601	4.7%	11.5%	.117	.301	.276	.316	.393	.308
Howie Kendrick	614	4.9%	17.8%	.133	.316	.272	.314	.405	.309
Peter Bourjos	471	5.7%	21.7%	.148	.302	.248	.302	.396	.302
Alberto Callaspo	553	8.9%	9.6%	.111	.278	.265	.330	.376	.307
Mark Trumbo	596	5.7%	24.2%	.218	.300	.263	.309	.481	.333
Chris Iannetta	333	12.9%	24.0%	.160	.269	.224	.334	.384	.314
Vernon Wells	449	5.3%	14.9%	.178	.257	.248	.290	.426	.308
Hank Conger	409	7.3%	18.3%	.115	.282	.243	.300	.358	.285
Luis Jimenez	588	3.1%	16.7%	.139	.277	.247	.274	.386	.282
Tommy Field	550	7.3%	25.3%	.102	.273	.209	.279	.311	.261
Kole Calhoun	557	7.5%	23.0%	.136	.286	.232	.294	.368	.292
Andrew Romine	494	6.3%	19.2%	.063	.287	.232	.287	.295	.256
Travis Witherspoon	573	6.6%	27.6%	.106	.277	.210	.267	.316	.261
Angel Sanchez	428	6.5%	12.4%	.062	.278	.245	.298	.307	.264
Luis Rodriguez	330	8.2%	11.2%	.102	.270	.251	.317	.353	.291
John Hester	302	6.6%	26.8%	.116	.288	.221	.277	.337	.266
Luke Carlin	262	10.3%	20.2%	.074	.266	.216	.299	.290	.264
Scott Cousins	345	5.8%	26.4%	.116	.290	.223	.271	.339	.263
Trent Oeltjen	458	6.3%	28.6%	.126	.308	.227	.285	.353	.273
J.B. Shuck	520	8.7%	11.5%	.051	.279	.244	.311	.295	.269
Paul McAnulty	481	7.9%	25.6%	.151	.261	.213	.279	.364	.279
Brendan Harris	464	6.0%	17.0%	.094	.259	.222	.277	.316	.261
Efren Navarro	597	5.0%	15.6%	.088	.274	.239	.277	.327	.263
Doug Deeds	369	5.7%	26.6%	.111	.288	.217	.267	.328	.258
Matt Young	488	9.8%	17.8%	.069	.267	.218	.300	.287	.266

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Mike Trout	695	7.5	142	8	8.0	Matt Kemp
Albert Pujols	638	7.1	144	4	5.3	Orlando Cepeda
Josh Hamilton	584	5.9	126	5	3.8	Chick Hafey
Erick Aybar	601	4.9	99	0	3.2	Tony Fernandez
Howie Kendrick	614	4.8	102	2	3.0	Jim Davenport
Peter Bourjos	471	4.4	96	11	2.8	Shane Victorino
Alberto Callaspo	553	4.6	99	4	2.7	Bill Mueller
Mark Trumbo	596	5.4	119	-5	2.3	Richie Sexson
Chris Iannetta	333	4.4	103	-1	1.8	Mike Fitzgerald
Vernon Wells	449	4.5	99	2	1.3	Hoot Evers
Hank Conger	409	3.8	86	-4	1.2	Walt McKeel
Luis Jimenez	588	3.8	84	-4	1.0	Angel Chavez
Tommy Field	550	3.0	67	0	0.9	Ricky Magdaleno
Kole Calhoun	557	3.9	86	1	0.8	Darren Burton
Andrew Romine	494	3.0	65	-1	0.6	Kevin Castleberry
Travis Witherspoon	573	3.0	65	3	0.5	Barry Wesson
Angel Sanchez	428	3.3	72	-4	0.5	Joe Funaro
Luis Rodriguez	330	3.9	90	-5	0.3	Nelson Liriano
John Hester	302	3.2	73	-4	0.3	Dwight Lowry
Luke Carlin	262	2.9	68	-2	0.3	Bob Swift
Scott Cousins	345	3.2	71	3	0.2	Jalal Leach
Trent Oeltjen	458	3.5	79	0	0.1	Michael Tucker
J.B. Shuck	520	3.2	73	3	-0.1	Steve Stanley
Paul McAnulty	481	3.4	80	0	-0.1	Jody Davis
Brendan Harris	464	3.0	68	-4	-0.1	Jorge Velandia
Efren Navarro	597	3.2	70	5	-0.3	Chad Chop
Doug Deeds	369	3.0	68	0	-0.3	Todd Dunwoody
Matt Young	488	3.1	68	-5	-0.8	Jarvis Brown

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jered Weaver	R	30	31	31	203.0	176	49	20	171	73	68
C.J. Wilson	L	32	31	31	193.3	169	79	15	172	80	75
Tommy Hanson	R	26	29	29	169.7	149	57	22	166	79	74
Jason Vargas	L	30	29	29	186.0	118	48	26	189	96	90
Ernesto Frieri	R	27	66	0	66.0	85	32	7	48	24	22
Joe Blanton	R	32	21	20	130.3	98	25	19	140	70	65
Nick Maronde	L	23	24	15	78.7	54	27	8	81	40	37
Jerome Williams	R	31	28	17	129.7	86	33	17	140	71	66
Ryan Madson	R	32	44	0	42.0	40	11	3	38	16	15
Sean Burnett	L	30	68	0	56.3	48	17	5	54	24	22
Scott Downs	L	37	54	0	45.0	33	14	4	42	19	18
Kevin Jepsen	R	28	63	0	58.7	50	23	5	56	28	26
LaTroy Hawkins	R	40	45	0	40.3	24	13	4	43	20	19
Ryan Brasier	R	25	56	0	58.3	42	29	5	58	30	28
Jason Isringhausen	R	40	43	0	38.0	29	17	5	38	20	19
Steve Geltz	R	25	43	0	52.3	51	28	7	48	28	26
David Carpenter	R	27	54	0	59.7	45	25	8	61	32	30
Jo-Jo Reyes	L	28	21	14	82.0	51	28	12	93	50	47
Mitch Stetter	L	32	36	0	26.0	21	14	4	27	16	15
Michael Kohn	R	27	48	0	48.0	43	28	7	47	28	26
Brandon Sisk	L	27	46	0	61.7	48	34	8	62	36	34
Garrett Richards	R	25	34	23	133.3	83	63	16	153	85	79
Sean White	R	32	39	1	51.0	26	31	5	58	33	31
Bobby Cassevah	R	27	53	0	62.0	32	32	7	68	39	36
Barry Enright	R	27	27	27	146.7	84	62	26	162	95	89
Brad Mills	L	28	23	22	121.3	77	50	18	143	80	75
Billy Buckner	R	29	22	22	119.3	61	53	18	137	79	74
Andrew Taylor	L	26	42	7	72.7	40	49	12	88	57	53

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jered Weaver	203.0	829	21.2%	5.9%	.260	3.01	3.41	77	87
C.J. Wilson	193.3	831	20.3%	9.5%	.280	3.49	3.69	89	94
Tommy Hanson	169.7	732	20.4%	7.8%	.290	3.93	4.08	100	104
Jason Vargas	186.0	795	14.8%	6.0%	.272	4.35	4.43	111	113
Ernesto Frieri	66.0	278	30.6%	11.5%	.279	3.00	3.58	76	91
Joe Blanton	130.3	556	17.6%	4.5%	.294	4.49	4.06	114	103
Nick Maronde	78.7	344	15.7%	7.8%	.292	4.23	4.26	108	109
Jerome Williams	129.7	562	15.3%	5.9%	.293	4.58	4.35	117	111
Ryan Madson	42.0	175	22.9%	6.3%	.294	3.21	2.76	82	70
Sean Burnett	56.3	240	20.0%	7.1%	.292	3.51	3.40	89	87
Scott Downs	45.0	191	17.3%	7.3%	.273	3.60	3.65	92	93
Kevin Jepsen	58.7	255	19.6%	9.0%	.293	3.99	3.67	102	94
LaTroy Hawkins	40.3	177	13.6%	7.3%	.287	4.24	4.09	108	104
Ryan Brasier	58.3	262	16.0%	11.1%	.290	4.32	4.42	110	112
Jason Isringhausen	38.0	169	17.2%	10.1%	.280	4.50	4.46	115	114
Steve Geltz	52.3	233	21.9%	12.0%	.285	4.47	4.55	114	116
David Carpenter	59.7	265	17.0%	9.4%	.289	4.53	4.64	115	118
Jo-Jo Reyes	82.0	367	13.9%	7.6%	.299	5.16	4.96	131	126
Mitch Stetter	26.0	119	17.6%	11.8%	.295	5.19	5.21	132	133
Michael Kohn	48.0	219	19.6%	12.8%	.288	4.88	5.07	124	129
Brandon Sisk	61.7	281	17.1%	12.1%	.289	4.96	5.02	126	128
Garrett Richards	133.3	616	13.5%	10.2%	.307	5.33	4.99	136	127
Sean White	51.0	242	10.7%	12.8%	.299	5.47	5.29	139	135
Bobby Cassevah	62.0	286	11.2%	11.2%	.288	5.23	5.13	133	131
Barry Enright	146.7	664	12.6%	9.3%	.280	5.46	5.62	139	143
Brad Mills	121.3	557	13.8%	9.0%	.309	5.56	5.14	142	131
Billy Buckner	119.3	548	11.1%	9.7%	.291	5.58	5.52	142	141
Andrew Taylor	72.7	355	11.3%	13.8%	.305	6.56	6.37	167	162

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Jered Weaver	203.0	7.80	2.17	0.89	127	4.9	Andy Benes
C.J. Wilson	193.3	7.87	3.68	0.70	110	3.6	Doug Davis
Tommy Hanson	169.7	7.90	3.02	1.17	98	2.2	Jack McDowell
Jason Vargas	186.0	5.71	2.32	1.26	88	1.5	Carlos Perez
Ernesto Frieri	66.0	11.59	4.36	0.95	128	1.0	Armando Benitez
Joe Blanton	130.3	6.77	1.73	1.31	86	0.8	Josh Towers
Nick Maronde	78.7	6.18	3.09	0.91	91	0.7	Steve Cooke
Jerome Williams	129.7	5.97	2.29	1.18	84	0.6	James Baldwin
Ryan Madson	42.0	8.57	2.36	0.64	119	0.5	Rod Beck
Sean Burnett	56.3	7.67	2.72	0.80	109	0.5	Chuck McElroy
Scott Downs	45.0	6.60	2.80	0.80	107	0.4	Vic Darensbourg
Kevin Jepsen	58.7	7.67	3.53	0.77	96	0.2	Brandon Kolb
LaTroy Hawkins	40.3	5.36	2.90	0.89	91	0.0	Boom-Boom Beck
Ryan Brasier	58.3	6.48	4.48	0.77	89	0.0	Joel Moore
Jason Isringhausen	38.0	6.87	4.03	1.18	85	-0.1	Jose Mesa
Steve Geltz	52.3	8.78	4.82	1.20	86	-0.1	Rafael Pimentel
David Carpenter	59.7	6.78	3.77	1.21	85	-0.2	Brendan Donnelly
Jo-Jo Reyes	82.0	5.60	3.07	1.32	74	-0.2	David Davidson
Mitch Stetter	26.0	7.27	4.85	1.38	74	-0.3	Eddie Oropesa
Michael Kohn	48.0	8.06	5.25	1.31	79	-0.4	Tom Shearn
Brandon Sisk	61.7	7.00	4.96	1.17	77	-0.5	Leo Vasquez
Garrett Richards	133.3	5.60	4.25	1.08	72	-0.6	Adam Russell
Sean White	51.0	4.59	5.47	0.88	70	-0.7	Jerry Johnson
Bobby Cassevah	62.0	4.65	4.65	1.02	73	-0.7	Mike Zimmerman
Barry Enright	146.7	5.15	3.80	1.60	70	-0.8	Brett Roberts
Brad Mills	121.3	5.71	3.71	1.34	69	-0.8	Mike Prochaska
Billy Buckner	119.3	4.60	4.00	1.36	69	-0.8	Mike Heathcott
Andrew Taylor	72.7	4.95	6.07	1.49	59	-1.7	Sean Whiteside

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.