2013 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
It’s probably not entirely correct to say that Robinson Cano is twice as good as any of his field-playing teammates. What does appear to be the case, however, is that — owing to a combination of offensive production, positional adjustment, and durability — Robinson Cano is likely to be twice as valuable in 2013 as any of those same teammates.

Elsewhere, there are a lot of rather low plate-appearance projections among the Yankees batting corps. Brett Gardner, Travis Hafner, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis: none is forecast to make even as many as 500 plate appearances. Of course, A-Rod’s mean projection by that account is already appearing to be rather an optimistic one: according to general manager Brian Cashman, the nominal starting third baseman is expected back from hip surgery in July, but could potentially miss the entire season.

Pitchers
Little has changed, so far as personnel is concerned, among the Yankees rotation. Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, and Andy Pettitte made the first-, second-, third-, fourth-, and sixth-most starts, respectively, for New York last season. As a group, they posted a 13.9 WAR over 856.2 innings. As a group, ZiPS projects them for a 12.6 WAR over 801.2 innings — not much different, really.

The bullpen appears to be a source of some strength for the Yankees — both so far as top-end talent and depth is concerned. The effects of Mariano Rivera’s return are perhaps understated here: despite Rivera’s perpetual excellence, Dan Szymborski’s math computer also probably has doubts about a 43-year-old pitcher who missed almost all of the previous season. Apart from Rivera, the Yankees actually have a real-live relief ace in David Robertson: the right-hander was fifth last season among relievers by xFIP-. Young-ish right-hander Cody Eppley and even younger right-hander Mark Montgomery are both projected to post park-adjusted ERAs better than league average.

Bench/Prospects
In outfielders Tyler Austin and Mason Williams the Yankees have two players who are both entering just their age-21 seasons, but yet are projected to produce the major-league equivalent of something like a win above replacement. Second baseman Corban Joseph is older, but his floor is quite high, and he was among the league leaders by regressed hitting at both Double- and Triple-A last season as a 23-year-old.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Robinson Cano	L	30	2B	672	94	184	42	3	29	100	5	3
Curtis Granderson	L	32	CF	626	94	133	20	6	33	93	13	5
Mark Teixeira	B	33	1B	574	73	126	27	1	26	90	2	1
Kevin Youkilis	R	34	3B	475	63	103	20	2	20	63	2	1
Brett Gardner	L	29	LF	342	50	76	11	5	3	24	28	7
Alex Rodriguez	R	37	3B	451	59	100	16	1	15	54	8	1
Derek Jeter	R	39	SS	555	69	139	20	4	6	53	13	6
Tyler Austin	R	21	RF	505	64	115	27	5	19	66	15	5
Casey McGehee	R	30	3B	500	50	115	22	1	15	71	1	2
Mason Williams	L	21	CF	535	59	136	21	5	13	52	27	19
Ichiro Suzuki	L	39	RF	628	84	168	26	5	10	61	29	7
Travis Hafner	L	36	DH	322	34	72	13	1	13	47	0	0
Corban Joseph	L	24	2B	579	64	125	30	5	12	59	2	4
Dan Johnson	L	33	1B	530	59	107	17	1	20	65	1	0
Gary Sanchez	R	20	C	466	49	100	20	1	19	62	8	4
Eduardo Nunez	R	26	SS	430	46	106	17	2	6	38	21	6
Andruw Jones	R	36	LF	254	28	51	9	0	13	37	2	0
Austin Romine	R	24	C	345	37	78	15	0	8	38	1	1
Chris Dickerson	L	31	CF	294	35	60	13	2	5	23	14	3
Francisco Cervelli	R	27	C	332	29	68	11	2	3	31	3	1
Chris Stewart	R	31	C	244	24	52	11	0	3	21	2	0
J.R. Murphy	R	22	C	466	44	102	25	2	10	47	2	3
David Adams	R	26	2B	354	35	81	20	1	6	38	3	3
Thomas Neal	R	25	RF	518	63	118	23	2	10	54	7	6
Juan Rivera	R	34	LF	417	44	99	17	0	13	66	2	2
Bobby Wilson	R	30	C	191	19	41	8	0	4	19	0	1
Jayson Nix	R	30	2B	318	32	65	15	1	10	33	6	2
Slade Heathcott	L	22	CF	340	38	71	15	2	8	27	14	9
Melky Mesa	R	26	CF	539	60	104	22	3	19	61	16	7
Gil Velazquez	R	33	SS	448	43	102	14	2	4	32	6	5
Zoilo Almonte	B	24	RF	533	52	116	23	3	19	68	12	6
Matt Diaz	R	35	LF	207	22	47	10	1	4	24	3	1
Ramon Flores	L	21	LF	628	61	137	26	4	13	57	14	7
Colin Curtis	L	28	RF	335	29	66	16	1	4	25	6	2
Doug Bernier	R	33	SS	259	23	45	9	1	0	14	2	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Robinson Cano	672	7.3%	12.8%	.221	.310	.301	.359	.522	.368
Curtis Granderson	626	10.5%	25.7%	.239	.279	.243	.329	.483	.346
Mark Teixeira	574	11.3%	17.1%	.217	.266	.256	.348	.474	.352
Kevin Youkilis	475	11.4%	21.1%	.208	.289	.256	.360	.464	.355
Brett Gardner	342	11.7%	17.0%	.102	.313	.259	.355	.362	.327
Alex Rodriguez	451	9.8%	22.0%	.159	.297	.253	.335	.412	.328
Derek Jeter	555	7.2%	13.5%	.092	.313	.277	.334	.369	.309
Tyler Austin	505	7.7%	27.5%	.204	.315	.249	.311	.453	.329
Casey McGehee	500	7.6%	18.0%	.152	.282	.253	.310	.404	.308
Mason Williams	535	4.3%	17.9%	.140	.312	.272	.306	.412	.303
Ichiro Suzuki	628	3.8%	9.1%	.111	.296	.282	.309	.393	.301
Travis Hafner	322	10.2%	20.2%	.194	.291	.258	.351	.452	.342
Corban Joseph	579	9.2%	20.0%	.147	.288	.242	.313	.389	.302
Dan Johnson	530	12.3%	18.9%	.174	.255	.235	.332	.409	.320
Gary Sanchez	466	5.8%	30.7%	.182	.295	.230	.277	.411	.298
Eduardo Nunez	430	4.9%	13.3%	.098	.293	.265	.302	.363	.292
Andruw Jones	254	11.0%	26.0%	.217	.264	.231	.323	.448	.334
Austin Romine	345	6.4%	19.7%	.122	.286	.245	.296	.367	.289
Chris Dickerson	294	10.2%	27.6%	.124	.314	.233	.312	.357	.300
Francisco Cervelli	332	7.5%	20.8%	.082	.291	.234	.308	.316	.276
Chris Stewart	244	7.0%	13.9%	.092	.268	.239	.303	.330	.278
J.R. Murphy	466	5.8%	18.5%	.136	.270	.236	.280	.372	.282
David Adams	354	6.5%	20.1%	.125	.304	.253	.312	.378	.301
Thomas Neal	518	6.4%	21.6%	.121	.308	.251	.313	.372	.299
Juan Rivera	417	6.5%	12.7%	.147	.268	.260	.309	.407	.307
Bobby Wilson	191	6.8%	16.2%	.119	.276	.244	.301	.363	.279
Jayson Nix	318	6.3%	25.5%	.164	.279	.227	.288	.392	.291
Slade Heathcott	340	6.2%	30.9%	.138	.317	.228	.287	.367	.284
Melky Mesa	539	5.9%	33.8%	.171	.284	.209	.265	.380	.281
Gil Velazquez	448	6.5%	15.2%	.074	.290	.250	.303	.324	.273
Zoilo Almonte	533	5.8%	28.3%	.173	.294	.233	.280	.406	.295
Matt Diaz	207	5.8%	20.8%	.126	.299	.247	.301	.374	.293
Ramon Flores	628	7.2%	20.9%	.127	.285	.238	.295	.365	.289
Colin Curtis	335	7.2%	21.5%	.098	.268	.216	.278	.315	.261
Doug Bernier	259	8.5%	27.4%	.048	.280	.195	.267	.242	.231

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Robinson Cano	672	7.2	133	3	6.0	Charlie Gehringer
Curtis Granderson	626	5.7	115	-5	3.0	Rick Monday
Mark Teixeira	574	6.0	118	5	2.9	Paul Konerko
Kevin Youkilis	475	6.1	120	-3	2.7	Sal Bando
Brett Gardner	342	5.2	94	10	2.0	Gene Richards
Alex Rodriguez	451	5.1	100	-1	1.9	Bob Elliott
Derek Jeter	555	4.6	89	-3	1.7	Luke Appling
Tyler Austin	505	5.2	102	1	1.6	Candy Maldonado
Casey McGehee	500	4.5	90	0	1.3	Jason Wood
Mason Williams	535	4.4	91	2	1.2	Rick Manning
Ichiro Suzuki	628	4.8	87	2	1.1	Sam Rice
Travis Hafner	322	5.8	114	0	1.1	Matt Stairs
Corban Joseph	579	4.2	87	-3	1.0	Boi Rodriguez
Dan Johnson	530	4.8	98	0	0.9	Kevin Barker
Gary Sanchez	466	4.0	82	-5	0.9	Josh Phelps
Eduardo Nunez	430	4.3	78	-4	0.8	Pedro Chavez
Andruw Jones	254	5.2	105	-1	0.7	Jeff Manto
Austin Romine	345	3.8	77	-2	0.7	Jason Hill
Chris Dickerson	294	4.2	79	0	0.6	Pat Sheridan
Francisco Cervelli	332	3.5	69	-1	0.5	Jeff Tackett
Chris Stewart	244	3.6	70	0	0.5	Dave Toth
J.R. Murphy	466	3.6	73	-4	0.5	Ryan Christianson
David Adams	354	4.2	85	-2	0.5	Leo Cardenas
Thomas Neal	518	4.1	83	4	0.4	Ruben Mateo
Juan Rivera	417	4.5	91	0	0.4	Mark Smith
Bobby Wilson	191	3.8	78	0	0.4	Dave Toth
Jayson Nix	318	4.0	80	-3	0.3	Caonabo Cosme
Slade Heathcott	340	3.5	74	2	0.3	Mel Hall
Melky Mesa	539	3.5	71	1	0.2	Chad Hermansen
Gil Velazquez	448	3.4	69	-4	0.0	Jorge Velandia
Zoilo Almonte	533	4.0	82	-1	-0.1	Kevin Roberson
Matt Diaz	207	4.1	80	-1	-0.1	Pedro Swann
Ramon Flores	628	3.8	76	-3	-0.5	Theron Todd
Colin Curtis	335	3.1	59	1	-0.6	Scott Seal
Doug Bernier	259	2.2	39	-5	-0.9	Ray Oyler

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
CC Sabathia	L	32	29	29	202.3	184	52	20	193	87	81
Hiroki Kuroda	R	38	29	29	186.0	136	45	26	192	94	88
Michael Pineda	R	24	20	20	120.0	102	43	16	117	63	59
Andy Pettitte	L	41	16	16	90.3	73	27	10	90	44	41
Phil Hughes	R	27	28	27	156.0	129	45	26	161	88	82
David Robertson	R	28	67	0	63.0	84	26	6	50	22	21
Ivan Nova	R	26	28	28	167.0	125	57	23	181	96	90
David Phelps	R	26	29	19	118.3	93	41	16	124	65	61
Freddy Garcia	R	36	24	18	109.7	73	34	16	120	64	60
Mark Montgomery	R	22	50	0	57.7	67	31	7	51	28	26
Boone Logan	L	28	70	0	52.0	58	22	6	47	25	23
Cody Eppley	R	27	65	0	57.0	46	22	5	57	28	26
Mariano Rivera	R	43	26	0	23.0	22	5	2	21	9	8
Clay Rapada	L	32	60	0	39.3	36	17	4	37	19	18
Joba Chamberlain	R	27	40	0	40.3	41	12	6	39	20	19
Derek Lowe	R	40	29	20	123.7	63	48	13	149	80	75
Jim Miller	R	31	50	0	64.7	54	27	10	67	37	35
Ryota Igarashi	R	34	52	0	53.7	49	30	6	55	31	29
David Aardsma	R	31	16	0	14.7	14	7	2	14	9	8
David Herndon	R	27	31	0	39.0	26	13	6	44	24	22
Cesar Cabral	L	24	27	0	42.0	31	22	5	47	27	25
Pat Venditte	B	28	29	0	45.7	33	22	7	51	30	28
Manny Banuelos	L	22	15	15	66.7	48	42	11	75	48	45
Jason Bulger	R	34	29	0	31.7	27	25	6	34	24	22
Adam Warren	R	25	25	25	131.0	72	60	20	158	92	86
Brett Marshall	R	23	26	25	132.7	82	58	25	155	95	89
Francisco Rondon	L	25	37	0	56.0	50	42	10	59	41	38
Shaeffer Hall	L	25	25	24	138.7	67	43	26	174	100	93
Nik Turley	L	23	21	20	95.7	67	53	20	111	73	68
Chase Whitley	R	24	43	2	76.7	49	39	16	90	59	55
Jose Ramirez	R	23	21	19	92.7	61	52	21	112	76	71
Dellin Betances	R	25	24	24	106.7	86	89	20	117	86	80

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
CC Sabathia	202.3	852	21.6%	6.1%	.294	3.60	3.48	86	83
Hiroki Kuroda	186.0	795	17.1%	5.7%	.284	4.26	4.33	101	103
Michael Pineda	120.0	520	19.7%	8.3%	.286	4.43	4.29	105	102
Andy Pettitte	90.3	388	18.7%	7.0%	.288	4.08	3.96	97	94
Phil Hughes	156.0	674	19.2%	6.7%	.288	4.73	4.56	112	108
David Robertson	63.0	266	31.5%	9.9%	.299	3.00	2.84	71	67
Ivan Nova	167.0	739	16.9%	7.7%	.301	4.85	4.56	115	108
David Phelps	118.3	520	17.9%	7.8%	.297	4.64	4.48	110	106
Freddy Garcia	109.7	483	15.1%	7.1%	.290	4.92	4.67	117	111
Mark Montgomery	57.7	254	26.4%	12.0%	.299	4.06	4.01	96	95
Boone Logan	52.0	225	25.6%	9.7%	.302	3.98	3.63	94	86
Cody Eppley	57.0	250	18.5%	8.8%	.294	4.11	3.88	97	92
Mariano Rivera	23.0	95	23.3%	5.0%	.291	3.13	2.93	74	70
Clay Rapada	39.3	172	21.1%	9.9%	.288	4.12	3.98	98	95
Joba Chamberlain	40.3	172	23.9%	6.9%	.300	4.24	3.91	101	93
Derek Lowe	123.7	568	11.0%	8.4%	.308	5.46	4.68	130	111
Jim Miller	64.7	288	18.7%	9.2%	.298	4.87	4.76	116	113
Ryota Igarashi	53.7	246	19.8%	12.3%	.311	4.86	4.65	115	110
David Aardsma	14.7	65	21.6%	11.2%	.284	4.91	4.50	117	107
David Herndon	39.0	174	14.8%	7.4%	.300	5.08	4.61	121	109
Cesar Cabral	42.0	195	15.8%	11.1%	.311	5.36	4.97	127	118
Pat Venditte	45.7	210	15.7%	10.6%	.302	5.52	5.27	131	125
Manny Banuelos	66.7	317	15.2%	13.2%	.304	6.08	5.89	144	140
Jason Bulger	31.7	154	17.8%	16.3%	.299	6.25	6.37	148	151
Adam Warren	131.0	610	11.8%	9.8%	.306	5.91	5.60	140	133
Brett Marshall	132.7	611	13.5%	9.5%	.296	6.04	5.84	143	139
Francisco Rondon	56.0	269	18.5%	15.7%	.298	6.11	6.02	145	143
Shaeffer Hall	138.7	633	10.5%	6.8%	.303	6.04	5.69	143	135
Nik Turley	95.7	451	14.8%	11.7%	.299	6.40	6.29	152	149
Chase Whitley	76.7	360	13.6%	10.9%	.298	6.46	6.23	153	148
Jose Ramirez	92.7	442	13.8%	11.8%	.301	6.90	6.69	164	159
Dellin Betances	106.7	526	16.4%	17.0%	.300	6.75	6.74	160	160

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
CC Sabathia	202.3	8.20	2.30	0.91	118	4.9	Bruce Hurst
Hiroki Kuroda	186.0	6.56	2.20	1.28	100	3.0	Mark Gardner
Michael Pineda	120.0	7.69	3.24	1.16	96	1.7	Jaret Wright
Andy Pettitte	90.3	7.23	2.73	1.03	104	1.6	Chuck Finley
Phil Hughes	156.0	7.45	2.59	1.47	90	1.6	Adam Eaton
David Robertson	63.0	11.95	3.77	0.81	142	1.5	Bryan Harvey
Ivan Nova	167.0	6.72	3.07	1.24	88	1.5	Chris Carpenter
David Phelps	118.3	7.07	3.09	1.21	92	1.3	Julio Valera
Freddy Garcia	109.7	6.00	2.80	1.32	86	0.8	Bob Walk
Mark Montgomery	57.7	10.46	4.78	1.06	105	0.6	Ryan Bukvich
Boone Logan	52.0	9.98	3.80	1.06	107	0.6	B.J. Ryan
Cody Eppley	57.0	7.32	3.48	0.86	104	0.6	Mark Lee
Mariano Rivera	23.0	8.64	1.85	0.83	136	0.5	Larry Andersen
Clay Rapada	39.3	8.30	3.90	0.94	103	0.4	Marshall Bridges
Joba Chamberlain	40.3	9.15	2.63	1.27	100	0.3	Mike Connolly
Derek Lowe	123.7	4.55	3.47	0.95	78	0.1	Burleigh Grimes
Jim Miller	64.7	7.51	3.71	1.34	87	0.0	Kevin Campbell
Ryota Igarashi	53.7	8.19	5.07	1.00	87	0.0	Heathcliff Slocumb
David Aardsma	14.7	8.66	4.48	1.37	87	0.0	Rich Croushore
David Herndon	39.0	5.95	3.00	1.33	84	-0.1	John Costello
Cesar Cabral	42.0	6.60	4.62	1.15	79	-0.2	Sal Urso
Pat Venditte	45.7	6.48	4.37	1.36	77	-0.3	Ken Vining
Manny Banuelos	66.7	6.50	5.67	1.45	70	-0.4	Norm Charlton
Jason Bulger	31.7	7.78	7.13	1.71	68	-0.5	Archie Corbin
Adam Warren	131.0	4.96	4.09	1.39	72	-0.6	Chris Buglovsky
Brett Marshall	132.7	5.58	3.92	1.71	70	-0.8	Frank Potestio
Francisco Rondon	56.0	8.00	6.81	1.56	70	-0.8	Peter Bauer
Shaeffer Hall	138.7	4.33	2.77	1.67	70	-0.8	Heath Phillips
Nik Turley	95.7	6.26	4.94	1.86	66	-1.0	Steve Bourgeois
Chase Whitley	76.7	5.75	4.59	1.84	66	-1.3	Jeff Robinson
Jose Ramirez	92.7	5.94	5.05	2.08	62	-1.5	Jonah Bayliss
Dellin Betances	106.7	7.28	7.54	1.70	63	-1.5	Miguel Jimenez

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.