2013 ZiPS Projections – Oakland Athletics

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below is the second set of 2013’s projections — for the AL West champion Oakland Athletics. Don’t hesitate to leave notes regarding format/presentation in the comments section, as the author frequently has no idea what he’s doing.

Batters
With his offseason acquisition of outfielder Chris Young (for Cliff Pennington and a minor leaguer), GM Billy Beane has created a good kind of the problem for the A’s: four of the team’s five best field players, per ZiPS — and four of the five team’s field players projected to record a WAR above 2.0 — are outfielders. Coco Crisp and Young both have positive career UZRs in center field; Reddick has the same in right. All three have pretty large sample sizes at their respective positions. Yoenis Cespedes has neither decent fielding numbers nor a sample that requires us to weight said numbers heavily. Still, based on the defensive reputations of all four players, it wouldn’t be shocking to see a lineup with Cespedes at DH and the other three playing the outfield.

Outside of that quadrumvirate — and newly signed Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima (about whom Jeff Sullivan recently made some shockingly intelligent comments) — ZiPS sees mostly pieces, but little impact.

Pitchers
Brett Anderson’s health is important to Oakland’s success next year, likely — and the lack of it over the last two-plus seasons is what has produced here a rather conservative projection for Anderson’s 2013. After him, there’s considerable youth. Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, and Dan Straily: together, they have 88 career starts. The first three, however, all posted FIP-minuses of 100 or lower in a starting role last season.

Despite the fact that he’s pitched professionally for all of one season (after converting from first base) and now has more major-league innings (47.1) than minor-league ones (26.0), it might not be entirely ridiculous to suggest that left-hander Sean Doolittle is the best relief pitcher on the A’s right now. He posted a 73 xFIP- and 1.6 WAR in 2012, while posting similar strikeout/walk differentials against lefties and righties. ZiPS projects Doolittle to post both the team’s highest strikeout rate and lowest FIP.

Bench/Prospects
Acquired from Boston in the Andrew Bailey trade, Miles Head is a player about whose offensive potential Marc Hulet had some positive things to say this past April — and for whose defensive potential Hulet reserved less glowing remarks. The A’s moved him back to third base this season after he’d played mostly first in the Boston system. ZiPS is optimistic about him — although, after splitting his 2012 season between High- and Double-A, Head is likely to spend most of 2013 in the minors.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the A’s, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Yoenis Cespedes	R	27	CF	625	90	155	25	4	23	84	13	5
Chris Young	R	29	CF	525	59	103	26	1	16	51	16	6
Coco Crisp	B	33	CF	462	63	109	21	6	8	42	32	5
Hiroyuki Nakajima	R	30	SS	626	78	156	25	3	8	81	13	8
Josh Reddick	L	26	RF	614	72	136	29	5	22	63	7	4
Josh Donaldson	R	27	3B	535	63	114	26	1	15	66	7	3
Stephen Drew	L	30	SS	451	53	96	19	5	8	43	4	3
Miles Head	R	22	3B	602	61	138	28	4	15	58	3	2
Brandon Moss	L	29	LF	532	65	113	26	1	21	70	5	4
Derek Norris	R	24	C	470	52	79	18	1	12	48	8	3
Chris Carter	R	26	1B	568	73	115	26	1	25	73	4	2
Andy Parrino	B	27	SS	462	51	88	20	3	6	39	5	2
Daric Barton	L	27	1B	496	57	95	22	2	7	43	5	2
Seth Smith	L	30	LF	445	53	95	21	3	13	47	4	2
Scott Sizemore	R	28	2B	453	54	93	20	2	9	43	6	3
Eric Sogard	L	27	2B	464	58	105	17	3	6	38	10	5
Collin Cowgill	R	27	CF	514	51	111	21	3	7	48	16	5
Jemile Weeks	B	26	2B	544	61	120	21	8	3	35	17	7
Brandon Inge	R	36	3B	428	38	83	16	2	11	48	1	2
George Kottaras	L	30	C	222	20	42	9	1	6	24	0	1
Adam Rosales	R	30	SS	352	39	75	15	2	7	37	3	2
Scott Moore	L	29	3B	437	47	91	20	1	11	49	2	2
Shane Peterson	L	25	LF	484	51	96	18	3	7	42	9	3
Jermaine Mitchell	L	28	CF	543	60	105	17	7	6	37	14	10
Michael Taylor	R	27	RF	538	63	112	23	2	10	56	12	4
Michael Choice	R	23	CF	511	50	104	19	2	12	48	5	4
Luke Montz	R	29	1B	397	40	72	15	0	14	47	2	2
Steve Parker	L	25	3B	525	51	106	21	3	7	49	3	2
Jason Jaramillo	B	30	C	287	23	55	12	0	2	24	1	1
Wes Timmons	R	34	2B	325	36	70	13	0	3	26	7	3
Josh Horton	L	27	2B	445	43	89	17	3	4	44	3	2
Grant Green	R	25	LF	634	67	147	28	3	9	56	8	7
Matt Rizzotti	L	27	1B	481	41	101	23	1	9	44	2	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Yoenis Cespedes	625	7.8%	16.6%	.179	.299	.273	.338	.452	.343
Chris Young	525	11.6%	23.4%	.167	.271	.225	.319	.392	.314
Coco Crisp	462	8.2%	12.3%	.137	.285	.263	.322	.400	.320
Hiroyuki Nakajima	626	5.6%	14.9%	.095	.306	.271	.316	.366	.298
Josh Reddick	614	7.7%	21.2%	.187	.275	.243	.300	.430	.311
Josh Donaldson	535	7.3%	22.1%	.149	.277	.234	.295	.383	.297
Stephen Drew	451	9.8%	20.2%	.132	.288	.238	.313	.370	.298
Miles Head	602	6.0%	27.1%	.145	.322	.247	.299	.392	.301
Brandon Moss	532	8.3%	25.8%	.190	.284	.236	.305	.426	.314
Derek Norris	470	13.0%	30.0%	.140	.267	.198	.307	.338	.290
Chris Carter	568	10.7%	29.2%	.208	.288	.231	.317	.439	.327
Andy Parrino	462	9.7%	27.5%	.108	.297	.217	.302	.325	.273
Daric Barton	496	14.7%	17.9%	.114	.276	.231	.351	.345	.312
Seth Smith	445	10.1%	21.1%	.169	.284	.242	.324	.411	.314
Scott Sizemore	453	9.3%	25.8%	.128	.305	.233	.313	.361	.296
Eric Sogard	464	8.2%	12.5%	.098	.277	.250	.314	.348	.292
Collin Cowgill	514	7.4%	20.6%	.103	.291	.238	.299	.341	.284
Jemile Weeks	544	8.1%	15.3%	.095	.290	.247	.314	.342	.290
Brandon Inge	428	8.2%	27.1%	.138	.276	.216	.286	.354	.279
George Kottaras	222	13.5%	22.5%	.153	.267	.221	.326	.374	.306
Adam Rosales	352	6.8%	21.3%	.125	.280	.234	.288	.359	.280
Scott Moore	437	8.0%	22.0%	.141	.280	.235	.306	.376	.295
Shane Peterson	484	9.9%	25.6%	.105	.299	.225	.311	.330	.286
Jermaine Mitchell	543	9.0%	27.3%	.101	.296	.216	.291	.317	.268
Michael Taylor	538	9.5%	22.9%	.118	.291	.233	.310	.351	.294
Michael Choice	511	7.0%	28.0%	.127	.293	.223	.286	.350	.277
Luke Montz	397	9.6%	27.5%	.161	.249	.204	.285	.365	.281
Steve Parker	525	7.8%	25.0%	.101	.291	.224	.289	.325	.270
Jason Jaramillo	287	7.0%	20.9%	.069	.262	.210	.272	.279	.246
Wes Timmons	325	8.6%	8.3%	.077	.261	.246	.326	.323	.292
Josh Horton	445	7.0%	23.4%	.085	.280	.218	.274	.303	.256
Grant Green	634	4.6%	21.1%	.103	.303	.247	.285	.350	.275
Matt Rizzotti	481	8.7%	28.3%	.120	.315	.232	.301	.352	.284

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Yoenis Cespedes	625	5.7	117	-6	3.2	Vernon Wells
Chris Young	525	4.4	96	5	2.3	David Cook
Coco Crisp	462	5.3	99	0	2.2	Stan Javier
Hiroyuki Nakajima	626	4.2	89	1	2.2	Julio Franco
Josh Reddick	614	4.6	99	7	2.1	Ryan Church
Josh Donaldson	535	4.0	86	3	1.7	Gary Gaetti
Stephen Drew	451	4.1	89	-1	1.4	Lou Collier
Miles Head	602	4.2	90	-3	1.4	Brook Jacoby
Brandon Moss	532	4.5	100	1	1.3	Luke Scott
Derek Norris	470	3.5	79	-3	1.2	Luke Montz
Chris Carter	568	4.9	107	-4	1.2	Mark Strucher
Andy Parrino	462	3.4	74	0	1.0	Nick Green
Daric Barton	496	4.3	94	2	0.9	Mike Twardoski
Seth Smith	445	4.7	102	-3	0.8	Ben Broussard
Scott Sizemore	453	4.0	86	-3	0.8	Mike Blowers
Eric Sogard	464	3.9	83	-2	0.8	Ed Giovanola
Collin Cowgill	514	3.8	77	0	0.8	Lou Collier
Jemile Weeks	544	3.9	82	-4	0.7	Nelson Liriano
Brandon Inge	428	3.4	76	2	0.7	Jason Wood
George Kottaras	222	4.1	94	-3	0.7	Mike Fitzgerald
Adam Rosales	352	3.6	78	-2	0.6	Nick Green
Scott Moore	437	4.0	88	-6	0.5	Matt Craig
Shane Peterson	484	3.7	78	3	0.4	Andy Tomberlin
Jermaine Mitchell	543	3.1	69	2	0.2	Herm Winningham
Michael Taylor	538	3.9	83	-2	0.2	Jordan Czarniecki
Michael Choice	511	3.4	75	-3	0.1	Lance Hallberg
Luke Montz	397	3.5	79	2	0.0	Ryan Jones
Steve Parker	525	3.2	70	-4	0.0	Chris Saunders
Jason Jaramillo	287	2.6	53	-2	-0.1	Chris Tremie
Wes Timmons	325	3.8	81	-7	-0.1	Ted Sizemore
Josh Horton	445	2.8	60	-1	-0.2	Jim Mason
Grant Green	634	3.5	75	2	-0.3	Rod Allen
Matt Rizzotti	481	3.7	81	-3	-0.4	Lyle Overbay

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jarrod Parker	R	24	33	33	195.7	153	69	14	190	88	82
Tommy Milone	L	26	29	29	173.3	130	31	17	185	81	76
Dan Straily	R	24	31	31	170.0	153	79	21	161	85	79
A.J. Griffin	R	25	31	31	171.3	121	47	22	170	86	80
Bartolo Colon	R	40	20	20	127.0	75	23	15	136	62	58
Sean Doolittle	L	26	61	0	71.3	83	27	6	57	27	25
Brett Anderson	L	25	15	15	83.3	57	20	8	86	40	37
Grant Balfour	R	35	61	0	57.3	57	21	5	47	21	20
Ryan Cook	R	26	67	0	68.3	66	31	5	58	28	26
Pat Neshek	R	32	57	0	56.7	48	17	4	56	24	22
Travis Blackley	L	30	26	13	88.0	61	34	9	88	46	43
Jerry Blevins	L	29	59	0	57.0	51	22	6	52	26	24
Jordan Norberto	L	26	48	0	55.3	53	30	5	49	26	24
Evan Scribner	R	27	52	0	59.0	50	22	7	58	30	28
Chris Resop	R	30	55	0	58.7	49	24	6	59	30	28
Mike Ekstrom	R	29	52	1	66.7	45	28	6	71	36	34
Jeremy Accardo	R	31	48	0	58.0	35	28	5	62	33	31
Pedro Figueroa	L	27	52	0	61.7	40	40	6	63	35	33
Jesse Chavez	R	29	41	9	88.0	62	31	13	98	55	51
Brad Peacock	R	25	27	24	128.3	101	71	17	142	83	78
Justin Thomas	L	29	51	0	62.3	41	28	8	69	39	36
Garrett Olson	L	29	33	15	89.7	58	56	11	106	64	60
Arnold Leon	R	24	45	0	63.0	45	32	10	74	43	40
Andrew Werner	L	26	26	26	132.3	79	49	23	170	98	92
Fabio Castro	L	28	26	17	90.7	54	65	16	120	79	74

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jarrod Parker	195.7	833	18.4%	8.3%	.290	3.77	3.53	94	88
Tommy Milone	173.3	725	17.9%	4.3%	.301	3.95	3.49	98	87
Dan Straily	170.0	740	20.7%	10.7%	.283	4.18	4.47	104	111
A.J. Griffin	171.3	721	16.8%	6.5%	.271	4.20	4.28	104	106
Bartolo Colon	127.0	531	14.1%	4.3%	.280	4.11	3.95	102	98
Sean Doolittle	71.3	293	28.3%	9.2%	.281	3.15	3.04	78	75
Brett Anderson	83.3	351	16.3%	5.7%	.290	4.00	3.84	99	95
Grant Balfour	57.3	235	24.3%	8.9%	.267	3.14	3.23	78	80
Ryan Cook	68.3	287	23.0%	10.8%	.284	3.42	3.52	85	87
Pat Neshek	56.7	238	20.1%	7.1%	.307	3.49	3.32	87	83
Travis Blackley	88.0	382	16.0%	8.9%	.279	4.40	4.30	109	107
Jerry Blevins	57.0	239	21.3%	9.2%	.282	3.79	3.83	94	95
Jordan Norberto	55.3	240	22.1%	12.5%	.284	3.90	3.98	97	99
Evan Scribner	59.0	254	19.7%	8.7%	.283	4.27	4.16	106	103
Chris Resop	58.7	251	19.5%	9.6%	.301	4.30	3.83	107	95
Mike Ekstrom	66.7	295	15.3%	9.5%	.298	4.59	4.31	114	107
Jeremy Accardo	58.0	259	13.5%	10.8%	.294	4.81	4.46	119	111
Pedro Figueroa	61.7	284	14.1%	14.1%	.284	4.82	5.10	120	127
Jesse Chavez	88.0	387	16.0%	8.0%	.296	5.22	4.80	130	119
Brad Peacock	128.3	590	17.1%	12.0%	.305	5.47	5.07	136	126
Justin Thomas	62.3	280	14.7%	10.0%	.295	5.20	4.94	129	123
Garrett Olson	89.7	425	13.7%	13.2%	.312	6.02	5.40	149	134
Arnold Leon	63.0	292	15.4%	11.0%	.304	5.71	5.44	142	135
Andrew Werner	132.3	607	13.0%	8.1%	.312	6.26	5.41	155	134
Fabio Castro	90.7	452	12.0%	14.4%	.319	7.35	6.55	182	163

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Jarrod Parker	195.7	7.04	3.17	0.64	103	3.0	Greg Maddux
Tommy Milone	173.3	6.75	1.61	0.88	99	2.3	Glendon Rusch
Dan Straily	170.0	8.10	4.18	1.11	93	1.8	Jeff Juden
A.J. Griffin	171.3	6.36	2.47	1.16	93	1.7	Mike Boddicker
Bartolo Colon	127.0	5.31	1.63	1.06	95	1.4	Mike Morgan
Sean Doolittle	71.3	10.48	3.41	0.76	124	1.3	Al Hrabosky
Brett Anderson	83.3	6.16	2.16	0.86	98	1.1	Justin Atchley
Grant Balfour	57.3	8.95	3.30	0.79	124	1.0	Eric Plunk
Ryan Cook	68.3	8.70	4.08	0.66	114	0.9	Bryce Florie
Pat Neshek	56.7	7.62	2.70	0.63	112	0.7	John Habyan
Travis Blackley	88.0	6.24	3.48	0.92	89	0.6	Scott Schoeneweis
Jerry Blevins	57.0	8.05	3.47	0.95	103	0.5	John Grabow
Jordan Norberto	55.3	8.63	4.88	0.81	100	0.4	Darren Oliver
Evan Scribner	59.0	7.63	3.36	1.07	91	0.1	Jerrod Riggan
Chris Resop	58.7	7.51	3.68	0.92	91	0.1	Roberto Giron
Mike Ekstrom	66.7	6.07	3.78	0.81	85	-0.1	Mike Bumstead
Jeremy Accardo	58.0	5.43	4.34	0.78	81	-0.4	Jake Robbins
Pedro Figueroa	61.7	5.83	5.83	0.88	81	-0.4	Dean Brueggemann
Jesse Chavez	88.0	6.34	3.17	1.33	75	-0.4	Brian Sweeney
Brad Peacock	128.3	7.08	4.98	1.19	71	-0.6	Doug Robertson
Justin Thomas	62.3	5.92	4.04	1.16	75	-0.8	Joe Beimel
Garrett Olson	89.7	5.82	5.62	1.10	65	-1.1	Kevin Rawitzer
Arnold Leon	63.0	6.43	4.57	1.43	68	-1.2	Jim Dorsey
Andrew Werner	132.3	5.37	3.33	1.56	62	-1.8	Nate Teut
Fabio Castro	90.7	5.36	6.45	1.59	53	-2.5	Corey Lee

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.

Dan Szymborski can be found on Twitter @DSzymborski.

***

Other 2013 Projections: Giants.