2013 ZiPS Projections!
2013 ZiPS Projections, courtesy of Dan Szymborski, are now available in the projections pages in the player pages!
Please note that WAR as calculated on the projection pages and the player pages will differ from the original 30 reports. The projection and player pages use our in-house WAR calculations, where the original reports included Dan Szymborski original WAR projections.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
Is there a difference in the woBA calculations also? For example, for Jose Bautista the original projection page has him at .395, the player page at .400.
Actually looking deeper, everything else appears the same except for BABIP, BA & OBP, the latter two which would be driven by the former.
Yeah, wOBA (and FIP, too) might be different. I was calculating those myself and the precise variables or park adjustments might vary — but probably only a bit.
Ok, but what about the BABIP difference? That’s what seems to be driving it. On the projection page, it has Bautista at .266, on his player page it has .270. The PA is the same, as are BB, K, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR.
Unless it’s because those projection pages didn’t have HBP factored in? If BIP was to PA – BB – K – HR on the projection page and is PA – BB – HBP – K – HR on the player pages that would push up BABIP, BA and OBP and account for the difference
This should now be corrected. SF were being excluded from the denominator in BABIP.
Re minor leaguers — are the projections raw data or are they MLB equivalents?
All ZiPS projections are projections of performance versus MLB competition. However, the play time should be sensibly adjusted.
I noticed the Pitchers aren’t able to be divided by RP/SP like hitters are divided by position is that usually the case? I can’t remember.
Adam Eaton…Ouch-21 HBPs
Grit!
Injury!
Welcome to The Show, son.
Hallelujah!
On the topic of projections, are there still plans to release long-term projections from Oliver? If so, is there an ETA?
Is there an article where I can read about the differences between Fangraphs’ in-house and Syzmborski WAR calculations?
I follow the White Sox, and was surprised to see the Fangraphs’ WAR total for our pitching staff (5 starters, 5 pen arms) was only about 50% of the WAR total projected in the original ZiPS article. That seems like a significant difference using the same stats.
My problem with some of these projections is trying to standardize the outliers. Joe Mauer has a career .345 BABiP. He’s not the only one with a larger sample size and a high career BABiP (Choo and Kemp to name a couple others). I’m pretty sure after thousands of PAs, it’s no longer a fluke. I’ll gladly bet the over .299 that ZiPS projects for Mauer. The same thing applies to pitchers. R.A. Dickey has pitched the last 600+ innings as a sub .280 BABiP. I’ll just ignore most of his projections.
It seems to me that you are not ignoring them, hence this post. If you create a system and you put the data in and when it doesn’t “look right” you just change those projections, then you might as well have just predicted from the gut in the first place.
I won’t ignore every single projection. I was talking about outliers. I suppose you have to factor in age and change of park factor as well, but when Mauer has 4500 PAs with a .345 BABiP, I think it’s fair to assume that’s close to who he is. That being said, I realize ZiPS has very conservative projections.
As for Dickey, there was an article here that discussed how FIP drastically underrates him. It discussed how his RAR is probably more accurate than his WAR. Knuckleballers historically have beaten FIP and BABiP projections. Even with his move to the AL East and the tougher park in Toronto, it’s an educated guess, not so much a gut instinct, that he’ll beat the .296 BABiP projection.
ZIPS has Miguel Cabrera winning a second straight Triple Crown. That’s gotta be a first.
Oliver does too, and Steamer has him missing by one homer to Pujols. As an aside, it should be clear that ZiPs (or any other system) is not actually predicting that Cabrera will win the triple crown.
What, there’s a difference between predictions and projections? Seems like there should be an article explaining the distinction between those things!
Is it even projecting that Cabrera will win the triple crown?
No, it doesn’t. It says the single most likely combination of leaders among the three categories is Miggy for all three. However, the chance that he actually wins all three is far less than likely.
Yes, it does.
Of all the American Leaguers listed, Miguel Cabrera is projected to have the most home runs, the most RBI, and the highest batting average. I don’t know what your book says, but mine says that’s a Triple Crown.
No one, including I, is saying that this projection constitutes a guarantee that Cabrera will win the Triple Crown. That would be a ludicrous claim to make. But no one, including you, can say that ZIPS is not projecting a Triple Crown for him. Because it obviously is.
If I ask you to pick a number 1-7, and I give you 4 chances, I’d guess that you’d get the number right on one of those 4 chances. Now if I repeated the exercise 3 times, each time giving you 4 chances, I’d predict that on at least one occasion you would fail to correctly guess the number, even though your chances are better than 50% each time.
Now, this is a perfect analogy, because in reality, ZiPs is not saying that there is a better than 50% chance that Cabrera will lead the league in homers, only that his median projection is the highest. But I still think the basic point should be understood that when you combine probabilities, the chances of multiple outcomes occurring is less than the chances of individual outcomes occurring. If you don’t understand that, you need to think about it until you do.
You’re talking about something completely different from what I’m talking about.
I’m just pointing out a simple matter of fact: ZIPS projects that Miguel Cabrera will hit the most home runs, bat in the most runs, and hit for the highest average in the American League. If every player performed exactly as they are projected to in ZIPS, Cabrera would win the Triple Crown. Simple as that.
Let’s be clear about something here: this is not me saying every player is going to perform exactly to his ZIPS projection. Maintaining that with a straigt face would be delusional. Not only am I not saying that will happen, I’m flat out saying that won’t happen. But even allowing for the certainty that that won’t happen doesn’t change the fact that ZIPS is projecting it. And that’s all I’m observing.
If you don’t understand that, you need to think about it until you do. 🙂
*isn’t a perfect amalogy
Whatever amalogy mean, if that’s good,? I’m that.
*analogy
It’s a subtle and interesting disagreement you are having. I guess another way to frame it is that ZIPS thinks that the most likely outcome is Cabrera leading the league in each of these categories. More likely than any other player, but not necessarily very likely (we haven’t been given a %, but obviously there’s a range of many possible outcomes among many talented players and all the related variables). If you extend that to winning all three categories, it’s even less likely. So if you “asked” ZIPS, Is Miguel Cabrera going to win the triple crown this year? The response would be, “I ZIPS think it is very unlikely, but of all the players in baseball he definitely has the best chance, and if everyone did what they’re most likely to do, then yes he’ll win it.”
Ouch. ZIPs is not kind to my Seattle Mariners.
The ZIPS projections between the Padres team page and the overall page now has changed SIGNIFICANTLY.
BeforeWAR/AfterWAR
Headley: 4.3/3.9
Venable: 1.8/1.4
Cabrera: 1.7/1.1
Alonso: 1.5/0.9
Amarista: 1.0/0.5
Marquis: -0.2/0.7 ?!?
Volquez: 1.3/1.9
Kelly: 0.8/1.5
What’s going on? Seems like a drastic change…
I know you’re using a different WAR calculation, but those are huge differences. Can’t seem to find where the difference in how you calculate is spelled out…can you elaborate more?
Thanks.
And before someone says the ‘playing time is adjusted’ pointing towards Cameron’s post about Steamer/ZIPS difference, that doesn’t explain how some pitchers have lost innings but gained significant WAR or how Marquis somehow becomes positive.
Just wondering what ZIPS uses or Fangraphs uses to calculate WAR that the other doesn’t.
Is WrC in the Zips numbers park adjusted?
Name/Sym WAR/fWAR
Lester/4.0/3.0
Dempster/2.4/1.9
Buchholz/2.8/1.5
Doubront/1.6/1.1
Webster/1.3/.0.9
The Red Sox rotation loses a whopping 3.7 wins between the two systems. Are the replacement levels of the two systems different?
Just curious, does a guy like Brennan Boesch get his stats updated for the park effect difference between Detroit and NYY? Or does the ZiPS projection for Boesch contain a Detroit park effect even though he’s technically listed on the NYY team page now?
Also, I’m super curious how park effects are being projected for San Diego and Seattle this year. With the fence adjustments, it’s not as if there is past data to give a rock-solid forecast for park effect?
Newbie here. Really intrigued at the statlines for Johnny Giavotella by ZiPS and Cairo…especially the 600+ AB’s, as I’m debating keeping him in AL Only for $6. How should one go about using this info because JG is likely only splitting time? Thanks.
It would seem like, in theory at least, that his “rate” stats (AVG, OBP, etc) would be a little higher, since he would be facing better match-ups as part of a platoon (as Getz is a left-hander), while his counting stats will likely be a lot lower. But Giavotella has struggled in limited playing time before, versus both left- and right-handers. He simply hasn’t shown an ability to hit major-league pitching. I root hard for Gia, as a big Royals fan, but Getz made adjustments in his swing before the 2012 season and has hit for a higher ISO since then. Getz is also the superior defender.
In general, my advice would be to let someone else take a risk on Gia.
When will the ZiPS ROS (rest of season) become available? I love that resource.
shouldnt it say 2014 ZIPS projections??
I’m still confused about how Zips can project full seasons for players who are still in the minors.