2013 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below is the first set of 2013’s projections — for the World Series champion San Francisco Giants. Don’t hesitate to leave notes regarding format/presentation in the comments section, as the author frequently has no idea what he’s doing.

Other thing: Szymborski himself will be chatting at Noon ET today in these very same electronic pages, and will happily answer any questions readers have regarding the projections themselves.

Batters
The Giants’ success is tied pretty strongly to the health and success of Buster Posey — not merely because only one player (i.e. Mike Trout) posted a higher WAR than Posey in 2012, but also because San Francisco’s catching corps lacks anything like impact talent. At 23, Hector Sanchez certainly has some promise, but even approaching Posey’s production would be a considerable challenge.

Of some interest will be how well the club is able to account for the departure of Melky Cabrera. While they were obviously able to win a championship following his suspension, Cabrera was also integral to the Giants’ regular-season performance, posting a 4.6 WAR in just 113 games (501 plate appearances). Manning the corners now will be Hunter Pence in right field and (likely) a platoon of Gregor Blanco and Andres Torres in left. ZiPS is optimistic neither about Blanco’s ability to match his career-high 2.4 wins from 2012, nor Pence’s ability to earn the entirety of the ca. $14 million he’s likely to receive in arbitration.

Pitchers
Allow the author to make all necessary caveats and disclaimers regarding, in particular, Matt Cain’s ability to prevent runs above and beyond those inputs for which WAR accounts. Adjudged solely by runs allowed per nine innings, Cain was worth 6.1 wins in 2012 — and has exceeded his WAR totals by ca. 10 wins by that measure over the course of his career. He’s good. Everyone acknowledges it. Huz-zah.

Otherwise, besides the departure of Brian Wilson (who was non-tendered) and a couple pieces maybe at the very back end of the bullpen, almost the entire pitching staff returns. Tim Lincecum’s No. 1 comparable player, Tom Gordon, is notable, perhaps: Gordon was an undersized right-hander who made 203 starts between his age-20 and -29 seasons before becoming a dominant reliever. Lincecum, who enters his own age-29 season, has made 188 starts. Despite an underwhelming season in the rotation, Lincecum was excellent out of the bullpen during the postseason.

Bench/Prospects
Mostly owing to their defensive acumen — which is substantiated by scouting reports — both outfielder Gary Brown and shortstop Ehire Adrianza profile as potentially useful pieces in the present, should injury or ineffectiveness elsewhere require their presence. Much of Joe Panik‘s profile — high-contact infielder who’s probably more appropriately deployed at second base than shortstop — resembles the recently re-signed Marco Scutaro’s. Now out of options, Conor Gillaspie will serve as depth at first and third (and maybe second) at the major-league level.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Giants, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Buster Posey	R	26	C	583	75	153	30	2	20	86	3	1
Pablo Sandoval	B	26	3B	547	68	141	30	3	18	76	2	3
Angel Pagan	B	31	CF	610	81	151	32	9	8	55	25	8
Brandon Belt	L	25	1B	544	63	124	28	5	13	67	12	5
Gary Brown	R	24	CF	654	78	151	30	6	6	52	29	16
Hunter Pence	R	30	RF	665	82	159	28	4	18	90	9	4
Andres Torres	B	35	CF	425	54	87	21	6	6	37	14	5
Joe Panik	L	22	SS	640	77	153	27	4	4	57	7	4
Marco Scutaro	R	37	2B	542	53	132	24	3	5	45	6	3
Conor Gillaspie	L	25	3B	566	59	132	23	5	8	57	2	4
Brandon Crawford	L	26	SS	475	49	99	21	4	6	42	4	5
Ehire Adrianza	B	23	SS	531	50	106	26	5	4	42	10	4
Hector Sanchez	B	23	C	362	34	88	20	1	6	57	0	1
Joaquin Arias	R	28	SS	371	39	90	15	3	4	35	6	1
Adam Duvall	R	24	3B	615	63	122	25	4	16	67	4	4
Gregor Blanco	L	29	RF	400	50	78	14	4	4	25	21	5
Brett Pill	R	28	1B	543	56	131	29	2	13	67	4	3
Nick Noonan	L	24	SS	548	55	121	21	3	4	47	6	4
Guillermo Quiroz	R	31	C	333	35	68	14	2	6	38	0	1
Freddy Sanchez	R	35	2B	224	23	55	11	1	3	24	1	1
Francisco Peguero	R	25	RF	515	56	129	17	9	4	54	13	6
Roger Kieschnick	L	26	LF	398	48	83	16	5	10	43	4	4
Aubrey Huff	L	36	1B	278	24	59	12	0	5	28	2	1
Todd Linden	B	33	1B	387	42	82	17	4	5	35	2	2
Juan Perez	R	26	RF	573	61	129	26	6	7	48	14	11
Ryan Theriot	R	33	2B	487	54	118	19	2	1	36	11	7
Tyler LaTorre	L	30	C	179	17	33	8	0	1	15	0	1
Xavier Nady	R	34	LF	254	22	51	10	0	4	23	1	0
Wes Hodges	R	28	1B	384	33	83	19	1	6	35	2	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Buster Posey	583	10.1%	15.6%	.184	.326	.299	.372	.482	.363
Pablo Sandoval	547	7.9%	13.7%	.182	.300	.285	.338	.467	.334
Angel Pagan	610	6.9%	14.4%	.132	.306	.270	.320	.403	.311
Brandon Belt	544	12.3%	22.8%	.164	.330	.264	.358	.429	.341
Gary Brown	654	5.5%	17.0%	.101	.303	.255	.314	.356	.293
Hunter Pence	665	7.4%	18.6%	.148	.299	.262	.317	.410	.316
Andres Torres	425	10.4%	22.8%	.136	.298	.233	.318	.369	.303
Joe Panik	640	7.2%	11.3%	.080	.290	.262	.318	.342	.292
Marco Scutaro	542	6.3%	7.9%	.092	.283	.269	.316	.360	.294
Conor Gillaspie	566	7.4%	15.9%	.111	.295	.256	.313	.367	.293
Brandon Crawford	475	7.6%	23.2%	.109	.293	.230	.292	.340	.272
Ehire Adrianza	531	6.8%	21.1%	.100	.279	.221	.280	.321	.262
Hector Sanchez	362	3.9%	20.7%	.117	.308	.257	.285	.373	.283
Joaquin Arias	371	3.2%	13.5%	.095	.288	.258	.285	.352	.275
Adam Duvall	615	7.0%	24.4%	.145	.268	.219	.283	.364	.281
Gregor Blanco	400	11.8%	22.0%	.099	.292	.227	.322	.326	.293
Brett Pill	543	4.1%	14.4%	.142	.280	.258	.295	.400	.298
Nick Noonan	548	6.4%	19.5%	.078	.295	.241	.290	.318	.264
Guillermo Quiroz	333	6.0%	25.5%	.118	.286	.223	.275	.341	.266
Freddy Sanchez	224	5.4%	14.7%	.107	.304	.268	.312	.376	.294
Francisco Peguero	515	2.5%	19.8%	.095	.320	.262	.283	.357	.276
Roger Kieschnick	398	6.0%	30.4%	.152	.303	.226	.274	.378	.279
Aubrey Huff	278	9.4%	15.8%	.109	.267	.239	.309	.348	.285
Todd Linden	387	8.0%	25.6%	.114	.310	.234	.302	.349	.286
Juan Perez	573	3.8%	23.6%	.109	.303	.238	.271	.346	.267
Ryan Theriot	487	6.0%	11.1%	.058	.297	.265	.312	.323	.277
Tyler LaTorre	179	8.4%	26.3%	.069	.286	.208	.282	.277	.246
Xavier Nady	254	5.5%	24.8%	.094	.278	.218	.272	.312	.258
Wes Hodges	384	3.6%	25.0%	.107	.291	.227	.258	.334	.259

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Buster Posey	583	6.9	139	5	6.5	Joe Torre
Pablo Sandoval	547	5.9	125	2	4.1	Jim Lefebvre
Angel Pagan	610	4.9	103	4	3.5	Mookie Wilson
Brandon Belt	544	5.7	121	1	2.7	Johnny Callison
Gary Brown	654	4.0	89	5	2.1	Lemmie Miller
Hunter Pence	665	4.8	104	-1	2.1	Gary Matthews
Andres Torres	425	4.2	94	4	2.1	Mitch Webster
Joe Panik	640	4.0	87	-6	1.9	Liu Rodriguez
Marco Scutaro	542	4.2	91	0	1.9	Mark Loretta
Conor Gillaspie	566	4.0	91	1	1.8	Ernest Riles
Brandon Crawford	475	3.3	78	6	1.7	Craig Cooper
Ehire Adrianza	531	3.2	69	3	1.5	Pedro Sanchez
Hector Sanchez	362	3.8	84	0	1.3	Rich Gedman
Joaquin Arias	371	3.8	79	-2	1.2	Luis Maza
Adam Duvall	615	3.5	82	-3	1.2	Corey Smith
Gregor Blanco	400	4.0	84	4	1.1	Reggie Williams
Brett Pill	543	4.3	94	0	1.0	Dan Rohrmeier
Nick Noonan	548	3.2	72	-5	0.7	Gregorio Petit
Guillermo Quiroz	333	3.2	73	-3	0.7	Chad Moeller
Freddy Sanchez	224	4.3	94	0	0.7	Mark Grudzielanek
Francisco Peguero	515	3.7	79	4	0.6	Alexis Rios
Roger Kieschnick	398	3.5	82	1	0.4	Matt Cimo
Aubrey Huff	278	3.8	86	0	0.4	Dave May
Todd Linden	387	3.7	84	0	0.3	Mitch Webster
Juan Perez	573	3.2	73	4	0.2	Drew Anderson
Ryan Theriot	487	3.6	80	-7	0.0	Brian Dallimore
Tyler LaTorre	179	2.5	59	-1	-0.3	Tom Nieto
Xavier Nady	254	3.0	65	0	-0.3	Chad Moeller
Wes Hodges	384	3.0	66	-1	-0.5	Nilson Robledo

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Matt Cain	R	28	31	31	210.7	179	55	17	179	75	70
Madison Bumgarner	L	23	33	33	209.0	195	49	19	190	80	75
Tim Lincecum	R	29	31	31	188.7	194	78	18	169	82	77
Ryan Vogelsong	R	35	28	27	163.7	130	57	15	155	72	67
Sergio Romo	R	30	66	0	52.0	64	11	4	39	14	13
Barry Zito	L	35	24	23	135.7	91	53	15	134	70	65
Santiago Casilla	R	32	60	0	56.3	51	24	5	49	22	21
Chris Heston	R	25	23	23	136.7	86	50	11	148	72	67
Jose Mijares	L	28	65	0	50.7	48	21	4	44	20	19
Jeremy Affeldt	L	34	58	0	55.0	48	22	4	50	22	21
Brian Wilson	R	31	47	0	48.0	49	23	3	42	19	18
Mike Kickham	L	24	25	24	123.3	99	64	11	123	65	61
Eric Surkamp	L	24	19	19	104.3	81	50	7	107	52	49
Javier Lopez	L	35	65	0	41.3	31	17	2	39	17	16
Brett Bochy	R	25	41	0	47.3	54	27	4	37	20	19
George Kontos	R	28	51	2	70.0	58	25	7	67	32	30
Clay Hensley	R	33	53	3	61.3	49	27	6	57	29	27
Heath Hembree	R	24	51	0	47.3	47	28	4	40	21	20
Chad Gaudin	R	30	37	3	63.7	49	23	6	64	31	29
Yusmeiro Petit	R	28	21	17	98.0	67	30	10	111	55	51
Dan Runzler	L	28	43	4	48.0	44	27	3	47	25	23
Brad Penny	R	35	22	10	73.0	37	25	7	82	41	38
Shane Loux	R	33	41	0	53.3	29	16	4	56	26	24
Dan Otero	R	28	48	0	59.0	38	12	5	65	29	27
Guillermo Mota	R	39	34	0	42.7	39	16	5	42	21	20
Boof Bonser	R	31	17	8	42.0	24	20	4	47	26	24
Jake Dunning	R	24	44	3	71.7	48	26	6	79	39	36
Clayton Blackburn	R	20	22	22	125.7	95	27	24	137	75	70
Mitch Lively	R	27	50	0	69.0	47	32	5	71	36	34
Scott Munter	R	33	38	1	49.3	36	27	4	53	29	27
Jean Machi	R	31	56	0	57.3	37	25	6	63	33	31
Steve Edlefsen	R	28	50	0	56.3	36	32	5	60	33	31
Brian Burres	L	32	24	21	107.3	65	50	15	126	72	67
Eric Hacker	R	30	27	24	134.0	75	55	15	166	88	82
Edwin Escobar	L	21	20	19	91.7	60	39	18	108	65	61

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Matt Cain	210.7	853	21.0%	6.5%	.265	2.99	3.30	78	86
Madison Bumgarner	209.0	850	23.0%	5.8%	.285	3.23	3.11	84	81
Tim Lincecum	188.7	800	24.3%	9.8%	.289	3.67	3.53	96	92
Ryan Vogelsong	163.7	689	18.9%	8.3%	.283	3.68	3.76	96	98
Sergio Romo	52.0	202	31.6%	5.4%	.279	2.25	2.33	59	61
Barry Zito	135.7	583	15.6%	9.1%	.273	4.31	4.36	112	114
Santiago Casilla	56.3	236	21.6%	10.2%	.277	3.36	3.66	88	95
Chris Heston	136.7	601	14.3%	8.3%	.300	4.41	4.18	115	109
Jose Mijares	50.7	213	22.6%	9.9%	.285	3.38	3.53	88	92
Jeremy Affeldt	55.0	232	20.7%	9.5%	.289	3.44	3.55	90	92
Brian Wilson	48.0	205	23.9%	11.2%	.296	3.38	3.24	88	84
Mike Kickham	123.3	551	18.0%	11.6%	.294	4.45	4.38	116	114
Eric Surkamp	104.3	464	17.5%	10.8%	.306	4.23	4.00	110	104
Javier Lopez	41.3	174	17.8%	9.8%	.296	3.48	3.24	91	84
Brett Bochy	47.3	201	26.9%	13.5%	.281	3.61	3.56	94	93
George Kontos	70.0	299	19.4%	8.4%	.282	3.86	3.94	101	103
Clay Hensley	61.3	263	18.6%	10.3%	.277	3.96	4.14	103	108
Heath Hembree	47.3	208	22.6%	13.5%	.278	3.80	4.17	99	109
Chad Gaudin	63.7	273	18.0%	8.4%	.295	4.10	3.96	107	103
Yusmeiro Petit	98.0	430	15.6%	7.0%	.309	4.68	4.16	122	108
Dan Runzler	48.0	215	20.5%	12.6%	.311	4.31	3.82	112	100
Brad Penny	73.0	321	11.5%	7.8%	.291	4.68	4.40	122	114
Shane Loux	53.3	228	12.7%	7.0%	.287	4.05	3.94	105	103
Dan Otero	59.0	250	15.2%	4.8%	.306	4.12	3.67	107	96
Guillermo Mota	42.7	183	21.3%	8.7%	.294	4.22	3.98	110	104
Boof Bonser	42.0	191	12.6%	10.5%	.297	5.14	4.76	134	124
Jake Dunning	71.7	316	15.2%	8.2%	.307	4.52	4.06	118	106
Clayton Blackburn	125.7	535	17.8%	5.0%	.279	5.01	4.90	130	128
Mitch Lively	69.0	306	15.4%	10.5%	.298	4.43	4.24	115	110
Scott Munter	49.3	224	16.0%	12.0%	.309	4.93	4.45	128	116
Jean Machi	57.3	256	14.5%	9.8%	.298	4.87	4.58	127	119
Steve Edlefsen	56.3	257	14.0%	12.4%	.296	4.95	4.78	129	125
Brian Burres	107.3	492	13.2%	10.2%	.300	5.62	5.24	146	136
Eric Hacker	134.0	614	12.2%	9.0%	.317	5.51	4.80	143	125
Edwin Escobar	91.7	418	14.4%	9.3%	.289	5.99	5.84	156	152

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Matt Cain	210.7	7.65	2.35	0.73	121	4.2	Freddy Garcia
Madison Bumgarner	209.0	8.40	2.11	0.82	112	3.5	Eric Milton
Tim Lincecum	188.7	9.25	3.72	0.86	98	2.2	Tom Gordon
Ryan Vogelsong	163.7	7.15	3.13	0.82	98	1.9	Mike Torrez
Sergio Romo	52.0	11.08	1.90	0.69	161	1.4	Ugueth Urbina
Barry Zito	135.7	6.04	3.52	0.99	84	0.6	Bob Knepper
Santiago Casilla	56.3	8.15	3.84	0.80	108	0.5	Doug Bochtler
Chris Heston	136.7	5.66	3.29	0.72	82	0.4	Mike LaCoss
Jose Mijares	50.7	8.52	3.73	0.71	107	0.4	Randy Choate
Jeremy Affeldt	55.0	7.85	3.60	0.65	105	0.4	Scott Schoeneweis
Brian Wilson	48.0	9.19	4.31	0.56	107	0.4	Mike MacDougal
Mike Kickham	123.3	7.23	4.67	0.80	81	0.3	Brandon Claussen
Eric Surkamp	104.3	6.99	4.31	0.60	82	0.3	John Daniels
Javier Lopez	41.3	6.76	3.70	0.44	104	0.3	Vic Darensbourg
Brett Bochy	47.3	10.27	5.14	0.76	100	0.2	Eric Cammack
George Kontos	70.0	7.46	3.21	0.90	94	0.2	Joey McLaughlin
Clay Hensley	61.3	7.19	3.96	0.88	91	0.1	Jim Czajkowski
Heath Hembree	47.3	8.94	5.33	0.76	95	0.1	Brad Voyles
Chad Gaudin	63.7	6.92	3.25	0.85	88	0.1	Steve Crawford
Yusmeiro Petit	98.0	6.15	2.76	0.92	77	0.0	Doug Waechter
Dan Runzler	48.0	8.25	5.06	0.56	84	-0.1	Steve Colyer
Brad Penny	73.0	4.56	3.08	0.86	77	-0.1	Jim Barr
Shane Loux	53.3	4.90	2.70	0.68	89	-0.1	Mike Barlow
Dan Otero	59.0	5.80	1.83	0.76	88	-0.2	Jeff Tam
Guillermo Mota	42.7	8.22	3.37	1.05	86	-0.2	Jose Mesa
Boof Bonser	42.0	5.14	4.29	0.86	70	-0.3	Elmer Riddle
Jake Dunning	71.7	6.03	3.26	0.75	80	-0.4	Rich DeLosSantos
Clayton Blackburn	125.7	6.80	1.93	1.72	72	-0.5	John Gardner
Mitch Lively	69.0	6.13	4.17	0.65	81	-0.6	Jose Segura
Scott Munter	49.3	6.57	4.93	0.73	73	-0.7	Ernie Camacho
Jean Machi	57.3	5.81	3.93	0.94	74	-0.9	Mike Sullivan
Steve Edlefsen	56.3	5.75	5.12	0.80	73	-0.9	Ryan Baker
Brian Burres	107.3	5.45	4.19	1.26	64	-1.2	Brian Barnes
Eric Hacker	134.0	5.04	3.69	1.01	66	-1.3	Dennis Tankersley
Edwin Escobar	91.7	5.89	3.83	1.77	60	-1.4	Greg Hibbard

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.

Dan Szymborski can be found on Twitter @DSzymborski.