2013 ZiPS Projections – St. Louis Cardinals

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters
The Cardinals have a number of hitters who’ve posted above-average offensive numbers over the last three years on the strength of high batting averages on balls in play. David Freese (.359 BABIP, 1200 PA), Jon Jay (.348, 1328), Matt Holliday (.333, 1879), and Allen Craig (.329, 857): each has posted a ball-in-play figure considerably above league average (which typically falls in the .290-.300 range).

The production of high BABIPs certainly can be a skill; however, as Dan Szymborski suggested recently with regard to Detroit’s Austin Jackson (who’s also posted high ball-play-numbers), it takes rather a large sample for that skill to reveal itself in the numbers. Accordingly, the ZiPS projections are going to appear conservative for players whose offensive value has been informed more considerably by his batted-ball profile.

Pitchers
Injuries have affected the Cardinals’ top-three starters considerably in recent years. Tommy John surgery, of course, prevented Adam Wainwright from pitching at all in 2011. Nerve and shoulder issues limited Chris Carpenter to just three regular-season starts in 2012. Jaime Garcia missed probably a little more than a third of his starts in 2012, as well, with shoulder trouble. ZiPS doesn’t know any of those details precisely, of course; what it does know is that the staff’s innings have been curtailed.

In light of Lance Lynn’s 2012 season, which saw him post a 180:64 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 92 xFIP-, and 2.9 WAR in 176.0 innings, his projection here might seem rather lacking in generosity. It’s worth noting, however, that he’s been considerably more proficient in his brief major-league career than he really ever was as a minor leaguer (which he was up to, and including much of, 2011). In 414.1 minor-league innings, Lynn posted strikeout and walk rates of 7.8 and 3.3, respectively, per nine innings. As a major leaguer, in fewer (210.2) innings, he’s posted strikeout and walk rates of 9.4 and 3.2, respectively, per nine innings. It’s generally not the case that pitchers’ raw numbers improve with a promotion to a higher level.

Bench/Prospects
The Cardinals’ young talent is the most noteworthy aspect of these ZiPS forecasts. Two of the club’s top-five field players by projected WAR, Oscar Taveras (2.6) and Kolten Wong (2.3), are likely to begin 2013 in the minors — probably at Triple-A Memphis, in both cases. It’s entirely possible — at just 21 and 22 years old, respectively — that their aging curves will bring them into All-Star territory before very long. Shortstops Greg Garcia and Ryan Jackson, meanwhile, both profile as competent infield depth — not a distinction to be overlooked. And while both scouting reports and ZiPS ask questions about the former’s (i.e. Garcia’s) defensive ability at short, he’s also young enough to improve his overall game at this point.

There are encouraging signs among the the Cardinals’ pitching prospects, as well. Per ZiPS, all three from Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller, and Trevor Rosenthal are capable of throwing something similar to league-average innings as a starter. With the relative fragility of the rotation, that hypothetical might become a reality.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Cardinals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Yadier Molina	R	30	C	545	51	142	25	0	14	70	9	4
Matt Holliday	R	33	LF	609	80	150	34	1	22	87	6	4
Oscar Taveras	L	21	CF	540	64	138	32	7	14	77	6	3
Carlos Beltran	B	36	RF	467	52	109	22	3	18	64	7	3
Kolten Wong	L	22	2B	598	67	153	25	6	8	53	19	12
Jon Jay	L	28	CF	548	69	138	26	3	8	48	14	7
David Freese	R	30	3B	439	47	107	19	1	13	62	2	2
Allen Craig	R	28	1B	489	66	126	28	1	19	82	3	1
Rafael Furcal	B	35	SS	465	61	110	18	4	7	44	11	4
Ryan Jackson	R	25	SS	559	48	123	24	3	5	44	3	2
Greg Garcia	L	23	SS	513	62	107	21	5	4	37	9	6
Adron Chambers	L	26	CF	515	58	113	16	7	5	41	15	7
Daniel Descalso	L	26	2B	485	55	109	21	5	5	43	5	3
Starlin Rodriguez	B	23	2B	493	52	113	21	5	7	45	10	9
Justin Christian	R	33	CF	463	59	105	20	4	5	37	23	4
Matt Adams	L	24	1B	486	51	120	26	1	16	66	2	1
Matt Carpenter	L	27	1B	496	53	110	24	4	8	53	4	2
Tony Cruz	R	26	C	277	24	62	15	1	4	28	0	2
Jermaine Curtis	R	25	3B	458	46	103	16	2	1	33	5	1
Pete Kozma	R	25	2B	595	58	122	23	4	8	62	7	3
Rob Johnson	R	28	C	228	26	44	11	1	4	25	2	0
Shane Robinson	R	28	RF	274	32	62	13	2	3	25	6	1
J.R. Towles	R	29	C	206	20	41	12	0	2	22	1	1
Jose Garcia	R	25	3B	470	46	108	16	1	4	34	15	7
Ty Wigginton	R	35	1B	418	42	89	16	1	11	48	2	1
Aaron Bates	R	29	1B	357	33	75	14	0	4	29	0	0
Luis Montanez	R	31	RF	331	30	72	12	2	3	31	2	3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Yadier Molina	545	7.5%	9.0%	.137	.296	.289	.348	.426	.332
Matt Holliday	609	10.5%	17.2%	.192	.312	.281	.365	.473	.358
Oscar Taveras	540	6.9%	13.5%	.178	.301	.279	.331	.457	.329
Carlos Beltran	467	10.7%	18.0%	.199	.291	.265	.345	.464	.338
Kolten Wong	598	6.4%	13.2%	.111	.310	.279	.328	.390	.311
Jon Jay	548	6.4%	14.8%	.115	.323	.282	.342	.397	.317
David Freese	439	8.4%	21.0%	.152	.323	.272	.340	.424	.332
Allen Craig	489	7.2%	18.2%	.195	.311	.283	.333	.478	.348
Rafael Furcal	465	8.2%	12.0%	.112	.287	.262	.325	.374	.305
Ryan Jackson	559	7.0%	18.8%	.089	.295	.243	.296	.332	.272
Greg Garcia	513	10.1%	18.7%	.097	.296	.239	.329	.336	.293
Adron Chambers	515	8.7%	22.7%	.099	.322	.249	.325	.348	.296
Daniel Descalso	485	8.2%	15.9%	.107	.296	.254	.322	.361	.293
Starlin Rodriguez	493	4.9%	23.1%	.115	.320	.252	.304	.367	.288
Justin Christian	463	5.4%	13.6%	.101	.276	.246	.292	.347	.285
Matt Adams	486	5.8%	22.0%	.168	.311	.265	.307	.433	.314
Matt Carpenter	496	11.3%	18.5%	.131	.306	.257	.346	.388	.321
Tony Cruz	277	5.4%	20.2%	.113	.290	.240	.283	.353	.272
Jermaine Curtis	458	9.0%	14.2%	.058	.305	.259	.346	.317	.298
Pete Kozma	595	7.2%	21.2%	.102	.277	.226	.281	.328	.265
Rob Johnson	228	7.9%	26.8%	.123	.286	.217	.288	.340	.275
Shane Robinson	274	6.6%	13.9%	.104	.281	.249	.305	.353	.289
J.R. Towles	206	6.8%	17.5%	.099	.267	.225	.299	.324	.276
Jose Garcia	470	5.5%	19.8%	.070	.308	.249	.298	.319	.272
Ty Wigginton	418	7.9%	19.4%	.135	.270	.236	.301	.371	.293
Aaron Bates	357	8.4%	23.8%	.081	.303	.233	.305	.314	.280
Luis Montanez	331	7.3%	15.1%	.083	.277	.240	.303	.323	.277

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Yadier Molina	545	5.6	112	7	4.4	Earl Battey
Matt Holliday	609	6.4	129	-2	3.4	Paul O’Neill
Oscar Taveras	540	5.7	115	-4	2.6	Ken Griffey Jr.
Carlos Beltran	467	5.9	121	0	2.3	Ellis Burks
Kolten Wong	598	4.7	98	2	2.3	Buddy Lewis
Jon Jay	548	5.1	103	1	2.3	Terry Whitfield
David Freese	439	5.3	110	0	2.2	Tim Naehring
Allen Craig	489	6.0	121	-2	2.1	Lamar Johnson
Rafael Furcal	465	4.5	92	-3	1.6	Tony Fernandez
Ryan Jackson	559	3.5	73	2	1.2	Tim Naehring
Greg Garcia	513	3.8	84	-3	1.2	Ernest Riles
Adron Chambers	515	4.1	86	0	1.1	Jeff Stone
Daniel Descalso	485	4.2	89	-2	1.0	Rance Mulliniks
Starlin Rodriguez	493	3.8	84	2	1.0	Manuel Lee
Justin Christian	463	4.0	76	1	1.0	Jim Busby
Matt Adams	486	4.9	101	-1	0.9	Adam LaRoche
Matt Carpenter	496	4.9	103	-2	0.9	Rusty Greer
Tony Cruz	277	3.4	74	4	0.9	David Duff
Jermaine Curtis	458	4.1	85	-3	0.8	Scott Campbell
Pete Kozma	595	3.2	68	4	0.7	Nate Frese
Rob Johnson	228	3.5	72	0	0.5	Danny Ardoin
Shane Robinson	274	4.1	81	2	0.4	Jake Weber
J.R. Towles	206	3.3	72	0	0.4	Bill Dobrolsky
Jose Garcia	470	3.4	71	-4	-0.1	Mike Champion
Ty Wigginton	418	4.0	85	-5	-0.4	Carl Everett
Aaron Bates	357	3.4	72	-1	-0.5	Juan Richardson
Luis Montanez	331	3.3	73	-3	-0.6	Alan Cockrell

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Adam Wainwright	R	31	27	27	173.7	157	46	14	165	71	66
Kyle Lohse	R	34	27	27	168.7	114	36	16	167	73	68
Jaime Garcia	L	26	27	27	160.7	130	45	13	165	73	68
Joe Kelly	R	25	33	28	168.3	109	62	13	176	82	77
Trevor Rosenthal	R	23	33	21	123.0	114	51	12	110	56	52
Lance Lynn	R	26	32	24	149.7	135	56	15	148	74	69
Chris Carpenter	R	38	13	13	91.7	73	21	7	93	41	38
Shelby Miller	R	22	26	26	132.7	128	71	10	126	65	61
Jason Motte	R	31	64	0	60.7	67	17	6	49	21	20
Jake Westbrook	R	35	25	25	152.0	91	52	14	164	80	75
Mitchell Boggs	R	29	66	0	70.0	57	23	6	65	29	27
Fernando Salas	R	28	66	0	65.0	67	24	6	57	27	25
Edward Mujica	R	29	66	0	67.0	55	12	8	63	28	26
Randy Choate	L	37	65	0	31.7	31	13	3	28	13	12
Brandon Dickson	R	28	26	23	143.7	92	41	19	162	82	77
Marc Rzepczynski	L	27	69	0	54.7	48	23	6	52	27	25
Maikel Cleto	R	24	60	0	67.0	70	34	7	61	33	31
Brian Fuentes	L	37	42	0	38.7	34	15	4	37	19	18
Tyler Lyons	L	25	28	20	116.7	82	49	14	125	68	64
Jess Todd	R	27	50	0	61.3	51	27	7	63	33	31
Eduardo Sanchez	R	24	43	0	41.0	38	31	4	37	24	22
Eric Fornataro	R	25	62	0	66.3	40	33	5	70	36	34
Victor Marte	R	32	53	0	55.0	42	25	6	58	31	29
John Gast	L	24	26	26	143.7	87	62	17	159	88	82
Sam Freeman	L	26	65	0	63.7	46	35	6	65	36	34
Keith Butler	R	24	53	0	52.0	44	35	6	52	31	29
Barret Browning	L	28	53	0	64.3	44	37	6	68	37	35
Kevin Siegrist	L	23	20	17	87.3	54	52	11	96	58	54
Jorge Rondon	R	24	53	0	53.7	41	42	5	55	34	32
Michael Blazek	R	24	35	15	95.0	73	67	14	103	66	62

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Adam Wainwright	173.7	732	21.4%	6.3%	.295	3.42	3.16	90	83
Kyle Lohse	168.7	709	16.1%	5.1%	.280	3.63	3.65	95	96
Jaime Garcia	160.7	692	18.8%	6.5%	.303	3.81	3.37	100	89
Joe Kelly	168.3	743	14.7%	8.3%	.295	4.12	3.98	108	105
Trevor Rosenthal	123.0	530	21.5%	9.6%	.284	3.80	3.95	100	104
Lance Lynn	149.7	653	20.7%	8.6%	.303	4.15	3.82	109	100
Chris Carpenter	91.7	389	18.8%	5.4%	.302	3.73	3.21	98	85
Shelby Miller	132.7	595	21.5%	11.9%	.307	4.14	3.93	109	103
Jason Motte	60.7	248	27.0%	6.9%	.275	2.97	3.01	78	79
Jake Westbrook	152.0	672	13.5%	7.7%	.294	4.44	4.16	117	109
Mitchell Boggs	70.0	298	19.1%	7.7%	.284	3.47	3.65	91	96
Fernando Salas	65.0	276	24.3%	8.7%	.288	3.46	3.25	91	85
Edward Mujica	67.0	276	19.9%	4.3%	.275	3.49	3.50	92	92
Randy Choate	31.7	136	22.8%	9.6%	.290	3.41	3.69	90	97
Brandon Dickson	143.7	634	14.5%	6.5%	.302	4.82	4.51	127	119
Marc Rzepczynski	54.7	239	20.1%	9.6%	.287	4.12	4.03	108	106
Maikel Cleto	67.0	296	23.6%	11.5%	.298	4.16	4.02	109	106
Brian Fuentes	38.7	168	20.2%	8.9%	.292	4.19	3.84	110	101
Tyler Lyons	116.7	524	15.6%	9.3%	.299	4.94	4.71	130	124
Jess Todd	61.3	274	18.6%	9.9%	.301	4.55	4.29	120	113
Eduardo Sanchez	41.0	191	19.9%	16.2%	.287	4.83	4.78	127	126
Eric Fornataro	66.3	302	13.2%	10.9%	.297	4.61	4.54	121	119
Victor Marte	55.0	248	16.9%	10.1%	.302	4.75	4.35	125	114
John Gast	143.7	652	13.3%	9.5%	.298	5.14	4.86	135	128
Sam Freeman	63.7	291	15.8%	12.0%	.295	4.81	4.62	126	121
Keith Butler	52.0	243	18.1%	14.4%	.299	5.02	5.10	132	134
Barret Browning	64.3	298	14.8%	12.4%	.298	4.90	4.76	129	125
Kevin Siegrist	87.3	410	13.2%	12.7%	.296	5.56	5.49	146	144
Jorge Rondon	53.7	258	15.9%	16.3%	.301	5.37	5.24	141	138
Michael Blazek	95.0	455	16.0%	14.7%	.302	5.87	5.75	154	151

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Adam Wainwright	173.7	8.13	2.38	0.73	111	3.2	Kevin Millwood
Kyle Lohse	168.7	6.08	1.92	0.85	104	2.7	Ken Forsch
Jaime Garcia	160.7	7.28	2.52	0.73	99	2.2	Glendon Rusch
Joe Kelly	168.3	5.83	3.32	0.70	92	1.6	Mike LaCoss
Trevor Rosenthal	123.0	8.34	3.73	0.88	99	1.6	Kelvim Escobar
Lance Lynn	149.7	8.12	3.37	0.90	91	1.3	Willie Banks
Chris Carpenter	91.7	7.16	2.06	0.69	101	1.3	Jon Lieber
Shelby Miller	132.7	8.68	4.82	0.68	91	1.3	Jason Schmidt
Jason Motte	60.7	9.93	2.52	0.89	127	0.9	Jerry Spradlin
Jake Westbrook	152.0	5.39	3.08	0.83	85	0.9	Steve Sparks
Mitchell Boggs	70.0	7.33	2.96	0.77	109	0.6	Cory Bailey
Fernando Salas	65.0	9.28	3.32	0.83	109	0.6	Heath Bell
Edward Mujica	67.0	7.39	1.61	1.07	108	0.6	Mark Huismann
Randy Choate	31.7	8.80	3.69	0.85	111	0.3	Tony Fossas
Brandon Dickson	143.7	5.76	2.57	1.19	78	0.1	Tim Harikkala
Marc Rzepczynski	54.7	7.90	3.78	0.99	92	0.0	David Rosario
Maikel Cleto	67.0	9.40	4.57	0.94	91	0.0	Billy Sadler
Brian Fuentes	38.7	7.91	3.49	0.93	90	0.0	Vic Darensbourg
Tyler Lyons	116.7	6.32	3.78	1.08	77	-0.1	Dean Hartgraves
Jess Todd	61.3	7.49	3.96	1.03	83	-0.3	Roy Corcoran
Eduardo Sanchez	41.0	8.34	6.80	0.88	78	-0.3	Josh Banks
Eric Fornataro	66.3	5.43	4.48	0.68	82	-0.4	Gary Ross
Victor Marte	55.0	6.87	4.09	0.98	80	-0.4	Jim Dedrick
John Gast	143.7	5.45	3.88	1.06	74	-0.4	Jake Woods
Sam Freeman	63.7	6.50	4.95	0.85	79	-0.5	Chad Brown
Keith Butler	52.0	7.62	6.06	1.04	75	-0.5	Pete Sikaras
Barret Browning	64.3	6.16	5.18	0.84	77	-0.6	Tom Doyle
Kevin Siegrist	87.3	5.57	5.36	1.13	68	-0.7	Brian Holliday
Jorge Rondon	53.7	6.87	7.04	0.84	70	-0.8	Heathcliff Slocumb
Michael Blazek	95.0	6.92	6.35	1.33	64	-1.3	Alonso Beltran

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.