2013 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants / Nationals.

Batters
Despite various trials and assorted tribulations, Josh Hamilton still posted the second-best WAR (4.4) among Rangers batters in 2012 — and averaged about 4.5 wins per season during his five years in Texas. Replacing Hamilton in 2013, barring any substantial acquisitions, will be a combination of David Murphy (in left field) and a platoon of Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry (in center) — although, because Murphy and Gentry received considerable playing time in 2012 (521 and 269 plate appearances, respectively), Martin is the only real new variable in the Rangers outfield equation.

By regressed batting, Martin was one of the best prospect-age batters (i.e. age 24 or younger) in the Pacific Coast League, exhibiting the capacity both to control the strike zone and hit for modest power. That’s certainly promising, but ZiPS indicates that Texas might still be at a deficit in the outfield owing to Hamilton’s departure.

Pitchers
After Detroit, the Texas pitching staff posted the highest WAR in the majors last season. ZiPS forecasts ace Yu Darvish actually to exceed his 5.1 WAR and 89 ERA- from 2012.

Despite the departures both of Scott Feldman (to the Cubs) and Koji Uehara (to the Red Sox), Texas still has some depth. That some of the most interesting pieces (Neftali Feliz, Colby Lewis, Joakim Soria) will begin the season on the disabled list, however, clearly isn’t entirely ideal. The acquisition of Soria in particular — who was signed to a two-year, $8 million contract in early December — has the potential to prove quite deft, should Soria approach his form from before Tommy John surgery.

Bench/Prospects
Shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar (a) turns 20 in February and (b) is already regarded by ZiPS as the team’s third-best field player. Unlike Leonys Martin (mentioned above), Profar really does seem like a player who could almost entirely mitigate the loss of Josh Hamilton — less by means of his power, of course, and more by his defensive skills and plate discipline. Finding a position for him is a question that exists for which the answer remains an unsolved mystery — almost like a television show hosted by Robert Stack about hitherto unsolved mysteries. Many of the things one might say about Profar can be said about Mike Olt, too — except that he’s from Curaçao, because he’s not.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Adrian Beltre	R	34	3B	574	72	158	31	1	28	89	2	1
Ian Kinsler	R	31	2B	644	90	151	32	4	20	70	20	7
Jurickson Profar	B	20	SS	610	65	143	31	6	13	60	17	7
Elvis Andrus	R	24	SS	702	81	170	28	6	3	54	29	11
Mike Olt	R	24	3B	487	53	106	17	2	19	61	5	1
Craig Gentry	R	29	CF	337	39	79	12	3	3	29	17	5
Nelson Cruz	R	32	RF	556	65	134	34	1	24	82	10	4
A.J. Pierzynski	L	36	C	474	47	123	22	2	14	59	1	1
David Murphy	L	31	LF	478	49	118	22	2	13	54	11	5
Geovany Soto	R	30	C	407	47	83	19	0	15	56	1	0
Leonys Martin	L	25	CF	388	43	95	21	3	8	42	15	11
Mitch Moreland	L	27	1B	503	54	120	25	1	17	64	3	2
Julio Borbon	L	27	CF	525	58	131	17	6	6	46	20	6
Yangervis Solarte	B	25	2B	497	51	128	25	1	7	43	3	2
Engel Beltre	L	23	CF	614	61	146	18	10	7	45	27	10
Leury Garcia	B	22	2B	512	50	124	17	7	2	34	28	11
Eli Whiteside	R	33	C	214	24	42	9	1	4	20	1	1
Brandon Allen	L	27	RF	459	51	90	19	3	16	61	7	2
Konrad Schmidt	R	28	C	423	34	92	21	1	7	42	2	2
Dusty Brown	R	31	C	237	21	46	14	0	5	23	1	1
Luis Martinez	R	28	C	329	30	70	15	1	2	29	1	1
Robinzon Diaz	R	29	C	234	23	61	11	1	4	24	0	1
Koyie Hill	B	34	C	130	11	24	5	1	1	8	0	0
Aaron Cunningham	R	27	CF	390	42	83	22	2	8	47	3	5
Matt Kata	B	35	3B	436	37	97	18	2	6	41	2	1
Chih-Hsien Chiang	L	25	RF	527	50	121	30	2	11	59	3	3
Val Majewski	L	32	LF	248	21	51	10	1	3	24	3	1
Ryan Spilborghs	R	33	LF	399	36	84	16	1	6	37	4	3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Adrian Beltre	574	5.1%	12.7%	.220	.296	.296	.334	.516	.357
Ian Kinsler	644	9.8%	12.1%	.177	.277	.266	.346	.443	.344
Jurickson Profar	610	8.5%	16.6%	.151	.299	.263	.331	.414	.322
Elvis Andrus	702	8.8%	13.0%	.080	.319	.276	.346	.356	.308
Mike Olt	487	10.7%	29.8%	.182	.325	.247	.331	.429	.328
Craig Gentry	337	5.6%	16.6%	.089	.309	.260	.321	.349	.298
Nelson Cruz	556	7.4%	21.4%	.212	.298	.264	.320	.476	.340
A.J. Pierzynski	474	3.8%	11.0%	.153	.285	.277	.311	.430	.314
David Murphy	478	9.0%	15.5%	.152	.303	.275	.341	.427	.330
Geovany Soto	407	9.8%	23.3%	.178	.270	.231	.313	.409	.313
Leonys Martin	388	7.0%	17.5%	.145	.313	.270	.326	.415	.313
Mitch Moreland	503	7.6%	19.1%	.171	.297	.264	.321	.435	.318
Julio Borbon	525	4.8%	13.5%	.097	.303	.269	.307	.366	.293
Yangervis Solarte	497	4.6%	9.5%	.103	.292	.275	.311	.378	.299
Engel Beltre	614	3.7%	22.0%	.103	.321	.255	.292	.358	.283
Leury Garcia	512	4.1%	23.0%	.078	.340	.259	.296	.337	.276
Eli Whiteside	214	6.1%	25.2%	.119	.275	.216	.274	.335	.262
Brandon Allen	459	10.2%	29.8%	.180	.290	.223	.307	.403	.308
Konrad Schmidt	423	4.7%	22.9%	.112	.292	.235	.280	.347	.271
Dusty Brown	237	9.3%	24.5%	.137	.272	.217	.291	.354	.282
Luis Martinez	329	7.6%	22.2%	.077	.301	.234	.298	.311	.271
Robinzon Diaz	234	2.1%	6.4%	.111	.274	.270	.288	.381	.287
Koyie Hill	130	6.2%	26.9%	.084	.274	.202	.250	.286	.224
Aaron Cunningham	390	7.4%	21.5%	.142	.285	.235	.297	.377	.288
Matt Kata	436	3.7%	14.9%	.098	.269	.240	.281	.338	.270
Chih-Hsien Chiang	527	4.0%	20.1%	.135	.286	.243	.278	.378	.282
Val Majewski	248	6.5%	21.4%	.091	.274	.222	.274	.313	.259
Ryan Spilborghs	399	7.5%	22.8%	.100	.293	.234	.297	.334	.279

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Adrian Beltre	574	6.6	120	8	4.8	Hank Majeski
Ian Kinsler	644	5.8	106	4	3.8	Mark Ellis
Jurickson Profar	610	5.1	95	4	3.2	D’Angelo Jimenez
Elvis Andrus	702	4.7	86	6	3.0	Steve Sax
Mike Olt	487	5.2	98	4	2.4	Mark Reynolds
Craig Gentry	337	4.3	77	15	2.0	Gene Clines
Nelson Cruz	556	5.6	106	0	1.9	Jermaine Dye
A.J. Pierzynski	474	5.0	93	-3	1.8	Brian Harper
David Murphy	478	5.4	101	3	1.6	Orlando Merced
Geovany Soto	407	4.5	88	-2	1.5	John Buck
Leonys Martin	388	4.8	93	2	1.2	Rick Manning
Mitch Moreland	503	5.1	97	0	0.9	Danny Lewis
Julio Borbon	525	4.3	76	2	0.9	Mike Spidale
Yangervis Solarte	497	4.4	81	0	0.8	Terry Tiffee
Engel Beltre	614	3.9	70	4	0.7	Nathan Haynes
Leury Garcia	512	3.8	66	4	0.6	Juan Bell
Eli Whiteside	214	3.1	59	4	0.5	Chad Moeller
Brandon Allen	459	4.4	85	0	0.4	Kevin Burns
Konrad Schmidt	423	3.4	64	-1	0.3	Salomon Manriquez
Dusty Brown	237	3.5	69	-2	0.2	Henry Blanco
Luis Martinez	329	3.2	61	-1	0.1	Dave Parrish
Robinzon Diaz	234	4.0	74	-4	0.0	Jeff Smith
Koyie Hill	130	2.4	41	-1	-0.2	Frank Charles
Aaron Cunningham	390	3.7	76	-4	-0.3	Adam Pavkovich
Matt Kata	436	3.4	62	-3	-0.5	Vinny Castilla
Chih-Hsien Chiang	527	3.7	71	1	-0.6	Jim Auten
Val Majewski	248	3.0	55	-2	-0.9	Marc Sagmoen
Ryan Spilborghs	399	3.4	66	-5	-1.2	Chris Pritchett

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Yu Darvish	R	26	29	29	193.0	226	86	15	158	78	73
Matt Harrison	L	27	30	30	191.3	120	57	21	196	92	86
Alexi Ogando	R	29	26	25	135.3	117	41	16	121	60	56
Neftali Feliz	R	25	21	21	118.0	105	48	12	104	51	48
Derek Holland	L	26	29	28	170.7	141	55	27	170	92	86
Colby Lewis	R	33	15	15	94.0	82	22	14	91	45	42
Roy Oswalt	R	35	22	18	111.3	85	28	14	119	59	55
Robbie Ross	L	24	60	0	65.3	46	25	5	62	29	27
Joe Nathan	R	38	52	0	49.3	53	13	7	45	21	20
Joakim Soria	R	29	49	0	49.0	47	14	6	47	22	21
Cory Burns	R	25	64	0	67.7	59	26	7	68	34	32
Josh Lindblom	R	26	70	0	69.0	63	31	11	67	37	35
Yoshinori Tateyama	R	37	43	0	49.7	44	15	7	49	26	24
Martin Perez	L	22	30	26	137.7	72	64	17	166	90	84
Michael Kirkman	L	26	40	11	94.7	81	58	12	99	59	55
Tanner Scheppers	R	26	53	0	57.3	45	20	7	63	32	30
Justin Miller	R	26	44	0	57.0	43	31	7	57	32	30
Joe Ortiz	L	22	54	0	58.7	34	15	9	66	33	31
Cody Buckel	R	21	25	20	108.7	83	56	18	118	72	67
Mark Lowe	R	30	40	0	39.3	34	15	6	40	21	20
Evan Meek	R	30	48	0	50.0	38	30	7	51	31	29
Matthew West	R	24	21	0	23.0	14	13	3	26	15	14
Willie Eyre	R	34	46	1	58.3	34	28	7	69	37	35
Justin Grimm	R	24	27	24	126.0	71	51	20	154	88	82
Randy Wells	R	30	23	19	110.3	63	45	19	133	77	72
Jeff Beliveau	L	26	55	0	62.0	56	33	11	66	40	37
Wilmer Font	R	23	58	0	53.3	58	39	10	50	34	32
Neal Cotts	L	33	24	0	28.3	21	18	4	32	19	18
Aaron Heilman	R	34	43	0	48.7	34	21	8	56	32	30
Sean Green	R	34	26	0	32.3	21	21	4	38	22	21
Ross Wolf	R	30	51	0	61.0	36	25	9	73	42	39
Coty Woods	R	25	50	0	54.0	37	25	10	62	37	35
Roman Mendez	R	22	25	17	90.7	61	47	16	109	66	62
Tommy Hottovy	L	31	43	0	55.7	38	29	11	65	41	38
Neil Ramirez	R	24	27	27	105.3	76	59	20	123	79	74
Collin Balester	R	27	46	1	68.0	51	32	14	77	49	46
Zach Simons	R	28	42	0	54.0	35	39	13	65	47	44
Greg Reynolds	R	27	25	22	125.0	47	42	23	180	103	96
Zach Jackson	L	30	27	18	117.0	44	62	21	165	100	93

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Yu Darvish	193.0	823	27.5%	10.4%	.294	3.40	3.24	80	77
Matt Harrison	191.3	827	14.5%	6.9%	.279	4.05	4.18	96	99
Alexi Ogando	135.3	568	20.6%	7.2%	.269	3.72	3.88	88	92
Neftali Feliz	118.0	506	20.8%	9.5%	.272	3.66	3.91	87	92
Derek Holland	170.7	737	19.1%	7.5%	.281	4.54	4.54	107	107
Colby Lewis	94.0	395	20.8%	5.6%	.282	4.02	4.12	95	97
Roy Oswalt	111.3	481	17.7%	5.8%	.300	4.45	4.04	105	96
Robbie Ross	65.3	283	16.3%	8.8%	.278	3.72	3.78	88	89
Joe Nathan	49.3	206	25.7%	6.3%	.290	3.65	3.64	86	86
Joakim Soria	49.0	208	22.6%	6.7%	.295	3.86	3.75	91	89
Cory Burns	67.7	297	19.9%	8.8%	.303	4.26	3.94	101	93
Josh Lindblom	69.0	305	20.7%	10.2%	.286	4.57	4.73	108	112
Yoshinori Tateyama	49.7	213	20.6%	7.0%	.289	4.35	4.06	103	96
Martin Perez	137.7	643	11.2%	10.0%	.310	5.49	5.22	130	124
Michael Kirkman	94.7	441	18.4%	13.1%	.306	5.23	5.00	124	118
Tanner Scheppers	57.3	255	17.7%	7.8%	.311	4.71	4.21	111	100
Justin Miller	57.0	259	16.6%	12.0%	.287	4.74	4.92	112	116
Joe Ortiz	58.7	257	13.2%	5.8%	.292	4.76	4.85	113	115
Cody Buckel	108.7	500	16.6%	11.2%	.298	5.55	5.43	131	128
Mark Lowe	39.3	173	19.7%	8.7%	.288	4.58	4.42	108	104
Evan Meek	50.0	231	16.5%	13.0%	.288	5.22	5.26	123	124
Matthew West	23.0	108	13.0%	12.0%	.299	5.48	5.40	130	128
Willie Eyre	58.3	272	12.5%	10.3%	.310	5.40	4.98	128	118
Justin Grimm	126.0	583	12.2%	8.7%	.309	5.86	5.44	139	129
Randy Wells	110.3	509	12.4%	8.8%	.302	5.87	5.44	139	129
Jeff Beliveau	62.0	285	19.6%	11.6%	.304	5.37	5.34	127	126
Wilmer Font	53.3	249	23.3%	15.7%	.294	5.40	5.83	128	138
Neal Cotts	28.3	135	15.6%	13.3%	.311	5.72	5.46	135	129
Aaron Heilman	48.7	223	15.2%	9.4%	.306	5.55	5.25	131	124
Sean Green	32.3	156	13.5%	13.5%	.315	5.85	5.26	138	124
Ross Wolf	61.0	281	12.8%	8.9%	.309	5.75	5.21	136	123
Coty Woods	54.0	249	14.9%	10.0%	.301	5.83	5.63	138	133
Roman Mendez	90.7	428	14.2%	11.0%	.313	6.15	5.80	145	137
Tommy Hottovy	55.7	261	14.6%	11.1%	.302	6.14	6.08	145	144
Neil Ramirez	105.3	498	15.3%	11.8%	.307	6.32	6.00	149	142
Collin Balester	68.0	313	16.3%	10.2%	.299	6.09	5.82	144	138
Zach Simons	54.0	266	13.2%	14.7%	.297	7.33	7.26	173	172
Greg Reynolds	125.0	597	7.9%	7.0%	.329	6.91	5.91	163	140
Zach Jackson	117.0	578	7.6%	10.7%	.325	7.15	6.47	169	153

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Yu Darvish	193.0	10.54	4.01	0.70	130	5.7	Bob Turley
Matt Harrison	191.3	5.65	2.68	0.99	110	4.1	Greg Hibbard
Alexi Ogando	135.3	7.78	2.73	1.06	119	3.4	Ben McDonald
Neftali Feliz	118.0	8.01	3.66	0.92	121	3.1	Tony Armas
Derek Holland	170.7	7.43	2.90	1.42	98	2.7	Cliff Lee
Colby Lewis	94.0	7.85	2.11	1.34	110	2.1	John Smoltz
Roy Oswalt	111.3	6.87	2.26	1.13	100	1.8	Bartolo Colon
Robbie Ross	65.3	6.34	3.45	0.69	119	1.2	Pat Clements
Joe Nathan	49.3	9.68	2.37	1.28	121	0.9	Lee Smith
Joakim Soria	49.0	8.63	2.57	1.10	115	0.8	Mike Schooler
Cory Burns	67.7	7.84	3.46	0.93	104	0.8	Alejandro Pena
Josh Lindblom	69.0	8.22	4.04	1.43	97	0.6	Bo Donaldson
Yoshinori Tateyama	49.7	7.97	2.72	1.27	102	0.5	Jeff Montgomery
Martin Perez	137.7	4.71	4.18	1.11	81	0.5	Greg Kubes
Michael Kirkman	94.7	7.70	5.51	1.14	85	0.5	Bobby Sprowl
Tanner Scheppers	57.3	7.07	3.14	1.10	94	0.4	Derek Hasselhoff
Justin Miller	57.0	6.79	4.89	1.11	94	0.3	Joel Moore
Joe Ortiz	58.7	5.21	2.30	1.38	93	0.3	Ryan Meaux
Cody Buckel	108.7	6.87	4.64	1.49	80	0.3	Joaquin Benoit
Mark Lowe	39.3	7.79	3.44	1.37	97	0.3	Matt Karchner
Evan Meek	50.0	6.84	5.40	1.26	85	0.0	Mike Cook
Matthew West	23.0	5.48	5.09	1.17	81	-0.1	Scott Munter
Willie Eyre	58.3	5.25	4.32	1.08	82	-0.1	Jason Childers
Justin Grimm	126.0	5.07	3.64	1.43	76	-0.1	Peter Bauer
Randy Wells	110.3	5.14	3.67	1.55	75	-0.1	Dennis Tankersley
Jeff Beliveau	62.0	8.13	4.79	1.60	83	-0.1	Jesus Pena
Wilmer Font	53.3	9.79	6.59	1.69	82	-0.1	Dana Ridenour
Neal Cotts	28.3	6.68	5.72	1.27	78	-0.2	Eddie Oropesa
Aaron Heilman	48.7	6.28	3.88	1.48	80	-0.2	Jason Childers
Sean Green	32.3	5.85	5.85	1.11	76	-0.2	Jerry Johnson
Ross Wolf	61.0	5.31	3.69	1.33	77	-0.4	Bob Scanlan
Coty Woods	54.0	6.17	4.17	1.67	76	-0.4	Billy Taylor
Roman Mendez	90.7	6.05	4.66	1.59	72	-0.4	Jeremy King
Tommy Hottovy	55.7	6.14	4.69	1.78	72	-0.6	Eddie Oropesa
Neil Ramirez	105.3	6.50	5.04	1.71	70	-0.7	Darrel Akerfelds
Collin Balester	68.0	6.75	4.24	1.85	73	-0.7	Bo Hall
Zach Simons	54.0	5.83	6.50	2.17	60	-1.4	Mumba Rivera
Greg Reynolds	125.0	3.38	3.02	1.66	64	-1.7	Bill King
Zach Jackson	117.0	3.38	4.77	1.62	62	-2.0	Chris Peters

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.