2013 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

by
December 28, 2012

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants / Nationals.

Batters
Despite various trials and assorted tribulations, Josh Hamilton still posted the second-best WAR (4.4) among Rangers batters in 2012 — and averaged about 4.5 wins per season during his five years in Texas. Replacing Hamilton in 2013, barring any substantial acquisitions, will be a combination of David Murphy (in left field) and a platoon of Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry (in center) — although, because Murphy and Gentry received considerable playing time in 2012 (521 and 269 plate appearances, respectively), Martin is the only real new variable in the Rangers outfield equation.

By regressed batting, Martin was one of the best prospect-age batters (i.e. age 24 or younger) in the Pacific Coast League, exhibiting the capacity both to control the strike zone and hit for modest power. That’s certainly promising, but ZiPS indicates that Texas might still be at a deficit in the outfield owing to Hamilton’s departure.

Pitchers
After Detroit, the Texas pitching staff posted the highest WAR in the majors last season. ZiPS forecasts ace Yu Darvish actually to exceed his 5.1 WAR and 89 ERA- from 2012.

Despite the departures both of Scott Feldman (to the Cubs) and Koji Uehara (to the Red Sox), Texas still has some depth. That some of the most interesting pieces (Neftali Feliz, Colby Lewis, Joakim Soria) will begin the season on the disabled list, however, clearly isn’t entirely ideal. The acquisition of Soria in particular — who was signed to a two-year, $8 million contract in early December — has the potential to prove quite deft, should Soria approach his form from before Tommy John surgery.

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Bench/Prospects
Shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar (a) turns 20 in February and (b) is already regarded by ZiPS as the team’s third-best field player. Unlike Leonys Martin (mentioned above), Profar really does seem like a player who could almost entirely mitigate the loss of Josh Hamilton — less by means of his power, of course, and more by his defensive skills and plate discipline. Finding a position for him is a question that exists for which the answer remains an unsolved mystery — almost like a television show hosted by Robert Stack about hitherto unsolved mysteries. Many of the things one might say about Profar can be said about Mike Olt, too — except that he’s from Curaçao, because he’s not.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Adrian Beltre R 34 3B 574 72 158 31 1 28 89 2 1
Ian Kinsler R 31 2B 644 90 151 32 4 20 70 20 7
Jurickson Profar B 20 SS 610 65 143 31 6 13 60 17 7
Elvis Andrus R 24 SS 702 81 170 28 6 3 54 29 11
Mike Olt R 24 3B 487 53 106 17 2 19 61 5 1
Craig Gentry R 29 CF 337 39 79 12 3 3 29 17 5
Nelson Cruz R 32 RF 556 65 134 34 1 24 82 10 4
A.J. Pierzynski L 36 C 474 47 123 22 2 14 59 1 1
David Murphy L 31 LF 478 49 118 22 2 13 54 11 5
Geovany Soto R 30 C 407 47 83 19 0 15 56 1 0
Leonys Martin L 25 CF 388 43 95 21 3 8 42 15 11
Mitch Moreland L 27 1B 503 54 120 25 1 17 64 3 2
Julio Borbon L 27 CF 525 58 131 17 6 6 46 20 6
Yangervis Solarte B 25 2B 497 51 128 25 1 7 43 3 2
Engel Beltre L 23 CF 614 61 146 18 10 7 45 27 10
Leury Garcia B 22 2B 512 50 124 17 7 2 34 28 11
Eli Whiteside R 33 C 214 24 42 9 1 4 20 1 1
Brandon Allen L 27 RF 459 51 90 19 3 16 61 7 2
Konrad Schmidt R 28 C 423 34 92 21 1 7 42 2 2
Dusty Brown R 31 C 237 21 46 14 0 5 23 1 1
Luis Martinez R 28 C 329 30 70 15 1 2 29 1 1
Robinzon Diaz R 29 C 234 23 61 11 1 4 24 0 1
Koyie Hill B 34 C 130 11 24 5 1 1 8 0 0
Aaron Cunningham R 27 CF 390 42 83 22 2 8 47 3 5
Matt Kata B 35 3B 436 37 97 18 2 6 41 2 1
Chih-Hsien Chiang L 25 RF 527 50 121 30 2 11 59 3 3
Val Majewski L 32 LF 248 21 51 10 1 3 24 3 1
Ryan Spilborghs R 33 LF 399 36 84 16 1 6 37 4 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Adrian Beltre 574 5.1% 12.7% .220 .296 .296 .334 .516 .357
Ian Kinsler 644 9.8% 12.1% .177 .277 .266 .346 .443 .344
Jurickson Profar 610 8.5% 16.6% .151 .299 .263 .331 .414 .322
Elvis Andrus 702 8.8% 13.0% .080 .319 .276 .346 .356 .308
Mike Olt 487 10.7% 29.8% .182 .325 .247 .331 .429 .328
Craig Gentry 337 5.6% 16.6% .089 .309 .260 .321 .349 .298
Nelson Cruz 556 7.4% 21.4% .212 .298 .264 .320 .476 .340
A.J. Pierzynski 474 3.8% 11.0% .153 .285 .277 .311 .430 .314
David Murphy 478 9.0% 15.5% .152 .303 .275 .341 .427 .330
Geovany Soto 407 9.8% 23.3% .178 .270 .231 .313 .409 .313
Leonys Martin 388 7.0% 17.5% .145 .313 .270 .326 .415 .313
Mitch Moreland 503 7.6% 19.1% .171 .297 .264 .321 .435 .318
Julio Borbon 525 4.8% 13.5% .097 .303 .269 .307 .366 .293
Yangervis Solarte 497 4.6% 9.5% .103 .292 .275 .311 .378 .299
Engel Beltre 614 3.7% 22.0% .103 .321 .255 .292 .358 .283
Leury Garcia 512 4.1% 23.0% .078 .340 .259 .296 .337 .276
Eli Whiteside 214 6.1% 25.2% .119 .275 .216 .274 .335 .262
Brandon Allen 459 10.2% 29.8% .180 .290 .223 .307 .403 .308
Konrad Schmidt 423 4.7% 22.9% .112 .292 .235 .280 .347 .271
Dusty Brown 237 9.3% 24.5% .137 .272 .217 .291 .354 .282
Luis Martinez 329 7.6% 22.2% .077 .301 .234 .298 .311 .271
Robinzon Diaz 234 2.1% 6.4% .111 .274 .270 .288 .381 .287
Koyie Hill 130 6.2% 26.9% .084 .274 .202 .250 .286 .224
Aaron Cunningham 390 7.4% 21.5% .142 .285 .235 .297 .377 .288
Matt Kata 436 3.7% 14.9% .098 .269 .240 .281 .338 .270
Chih-Hsien Chiang 527 4.0% 20.1% .135 .286 .243 .278 .378 .282
Val Majewski 248 6.5% 21.4% .091 .274 .222 .274 .313 .259
Ryan Spilborghs 399 7.5% 22.8% .100 .293 .234 .297 .334 .279

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Adrian Beltre 574 6.6 120 8 4.8 Hank Majeski
Ian Kinsler 644 5.8 106 4 3.8 Mark Ellis
Jurickson Profar 610 5.1 95 4 3.2 D’Angelo Jimenez
Elvis Andrus 702 4.7 86 6 3.0 Steve Sax
Mike Olt 487 5.2 98 4 2.4 Mark Reynolds
Craig Gentry 337 4.3 77 15 2.0 Gene Clines
Nelson Cruz 556 5.6 106 0 1.9 Jermaine Dye
A.J. Pierzynski 474 5.0 93 -3 1.8 Brian Harper
David Murphy 478 5.4 101 3 1.6 Orlando Merced
Geovany Soto 407 4.5 88 -2 1.5 John Buck
Leonys Martin 388 4.8 93 2 1.2 Rick Manning
Mitch Moreland 503 5.1 97 0 0.9 Danny Lewis
Julio Borbon 525 4.3 76 2 0.9 Mike Spidale
Yangervis Solarte 497 4.4 81 0 0.8 Terry Tiffee
Engel Beltre 614 3.9 70 4 0.7 Nathan Haynes
Leury Garcia 512 3.8 66 4 0.6 Juan Bell
Eli Whiteside 214 3.1 59 4 0.5 Chad Moeller
Brandon Allen 459 4.4 85 0 0.4 Kevin Burns
Konrad Schmidt 423 3.4 64 -1 0.3 Salomon Manriquez
Dusty Brown 237 3.5 69 -2 0.2 Henry Blanco
Luis Martinez 329 3.2 61 -1 0.1 Dave Parrish
Robinzon Diaz 234 4.0 74 -4 0.0 Jeff Smith
Koyie Hill 130 2.4 41 -1 -0.2 Frank Charles
Aaron Cunningham 390 3.7 76 -4 -0.3 Adam Pavkovich
Matt Kata 436 3.4 62 -3 -0.5 Vinny Castilla
Chih-Hsien Chiang 527 3.7 71 1 -0.6 Jim Auten
Val Majewski 248 3.0 55 -2 -0.9 Marc Sagmoen
Ryan Spilborghs 399 3.4 66 -5 -1.2 Chris Pritchett

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Yu Darvish R 26 29 29 193.0 226 86 15 158 78 73
Matt Harrison L 27 30 30 191.3 120 57 21 196 92 86
Alexi Ogando R 29 26 25 135.3 117 41 16 121 60 56
Neftali Feliz R 25 21 21 118.0 105 48 12 104 51 48
Derek Holland L 26 29 28 170.7 141 55 27 170 92 86
Colby Lewis R 33 15 15 94.0 82 22 14 91 45 42
Roy Oswalt R 35 22 18 111.3 85 28 14 119 59 55
Robbie Ross L 24 60 0 65.3 46 25 5 62 29 27
Joe Nathan R 38 52 0 49.3 53 13 7 45 21 20
Joakim Soria R 29 49 0 49.0 47 14 6 47 22 21
Cory Burns R 25 64 0 67.7 59 26 7 68 34 32
Josh Lindblom R 26 70 0 69.0 63 31 11 67 37 35
Yoshinori Tateyama R 37 43 0 49.7 44 15 7 49 26 24
Martin Perez L 22 30 26 137.7 72 64 17 166 90 84
Michael Kirkman L 26 40 11 94.7 81 58 12 99 59 55
Tanner Scheppers R 26 53 0 57.3 45 20 7 63 32 30
Justin Miller R 26 44 0 57.0 43 31 7 57 32 30
Joe Ortiz L 22 54 0 58.7 34 15 9 66 33 31
Cody Buckel R 21 25 20 108.7 83 56 18 118 72 67
Mark Lowe R 30 40 0 39.3 34 15 6 40 21 20
Evan Meek R 30 48 0 50.0 38 30 7 51 31 29
Matthew West R 24 21 0 23.0 14 13 3 26 15 14
Willie Eyre R 34 46 1 58.3 34 28 7 69 37 35
Justin Grimm R 24 27 24 126.0 71 51 20 154 88 82
Randy Wells R 30 23 19 110.3 63 45 19 133 77 72
Jeff Beliveau L 26 55 0 62.0 56 33 11 66 40 37
Wilmer Font R 23 58 0 53.3 58 39 10 50 34 32
Neal Cotts L 33 24 0 28.3 21 18 4 32 19 18
Aaron Heilman R 34 43 0 48.7 34 21 8 56 32 30
Sean Green R 34 26 0 32.3 21 21 4 38 22 21
Ross Wolf R 30 51 0 61.0 36 25 9 73 42 39
Coty Woods R 25 50 0 54.0 37 25 10 62 37 35
Roman Mendez R 22 25 17 90.7 61 47 16 109 66 62
Tommy Hottovy L 31 43 0 55.7 38 29 11 65 41 38
Neil Ramirez R 24 27 27 105.3 76 59 20 123 79 74
Collin Balester R 27 46 1 68.0 51 32 14 77 49 46
Zach Simons R 28 42 0 54.0 35 39 13 65 47 44
Greg Reynolds R 27 25 22 125.0 47 42 23 180 103 96
Zach Jackson L 30 27 18 117.0 44 62 21 165 100 93

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Yu Darvish 193.0 823 27.5% 10.4% .294 3.40 3.24 80 77
Matt Harrison 191.3 827 14.5% 6.9% .279 4.05 4.18 96 99
Alexi Ogando 135.3 568 20.6% 7.2% .269 3.72 3.88 88 92
Neftali Feliz 118.0 506 20.8% 9.5% .272 3.66 3.91 87 92
Derek Holland 170.7 737 19.1% 7.5% .281 4.54 4.54 107 107
Colby Lewis 94.0 395 20.8% 5.6% .282 4.02 4.12 95 97
Roy Oswalt 111.3 481 17.7% 5.8% .300 4.45 4.04 105 96
Robbie Ross 65.3 283 16.3% 8.8% .278 3.72 3.78 88 89
Joe Nathan 49.3 206 25.7% 6.3% .290 3.65 3.64 86 86
Joakim Soria 49.0 208 22.6% 6.7% .295 3.86 3.75 91 89
Cory Burns 67.7 297 19.9% 8.8% .303 4.26 3.94 101 93
Josh Lindblom 69.0 305 20.7% 10.2% .286 4.57 4.73 108 112
Yoshinori Tateyama 49.7 213 20.6% 7.0% .289 4.35 4.06 103 96
Martin Perez 137.7 643 11.2% 10.0% .310 5.49 5.22 130 124
Michael Kirkman 94.7 441 18.4% 13.1% .306 5.23 5.00 124 118
Tanner Scheppers 57.3 255 17.7% 7.8% .311 4.71 4.21 111 100
Justin Miller 57.0 259 16.6% 12.0% .287 4.74 4.92 112 116
Joe Ortiz 58.7 257 13.2% 5.8% .292 4.76 4.85 113 115
Cody Buckel 108.7 500 16.6% 11.2% .298 5.55 5.43 131 128
Mark Lowe 39.3 173 19.7% 8.7% .288 4.58 4.42 108 104
Evan Meek 50.0 231 16.5% 13.0% .288 5.22 5.26 123 124
Matthew West 23.0 108 13.0% 12.0% .299 5.48 5.40 130 128
Willie Eyre 58.3 272 12.5% 10.3% .310 5.40 4.98 128 118
Justin Grimm 126.0 583 12.2% 8.7% .309 5.86 5.44 139 129
Randy Wells 110.3 509 12.4% 8.8% .302 5.87 5.44 139 129
Jeff Beliveau 62.0 285 19.6% 11.6% .304 5.37 5.34 127 126
Wilmer Font 53.3 249 23.3% 15.7% .294 5.40 5.83 128 138
Neal Cotts 28.3 135 15.6% 13.3% .311 5.72 5.46 135 129
Aaron Heilman 48.7 223 15.2% 9.4% .306 5.55 5.25 131 124
Sean Green 32.3 156 13.5% 13.5% .315 5.85 5.26 138 124
Ross Wolf 61.0 281 12.8% 8.9% .309 5.75 5.21 136 123
Coty Woods 54.0 249 14.9% 10.0% .301 5.83 5.63 138 133
Roman Mendez 90.7 428 14.2% 11.0% .313 6.15 5.80 145 137
Tommy Hottovy 55.7 261 14.6% 11.1% .302 6.14 6.08 145 144
Neil Ramirez 105.3 498 15.3% 11.8% .307 6.32 6.00 149 142
Collin Balester 68.0 313 16.3% 10.2% .299 6.09 5.82 144 138
Zach Simons 54.0 266 13.2% 14.7% .297 7.33 7.26 173 172
Greg Reynolds 125.0 597 7.9% 7.0% .329 6.91 5.91 163 140
Zach Jackson 117.0 578 7.6% 10.7% .325 7.15 6.47 169 153

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
Yu Darvish 193.0 10.54 4.01 0.70 130 5.7 Bob Turley
Matt Harrison 191.3 5.65 2.68 0.99 110 4.1 Greg Hibbard
Alexi Ogando 135.3 7.78 2.73 1.06 119 3.4 Ben McDonald
Neftali Feliz 118.0 8.01 3.66 0.92 121 3.1 Tony Armas
Derek Holland 170.7 7.43 2.90 1.42 98 2.7 Cliff Lee
Colby Lewis 94.0 7.85 2.11 1.34 110 2.1 John Smoltz
Roy Oswalt 111.3 6.87 2.26 1.13 100 1.8 Bartolo Colon
Robbie Ross 65.3 6.34 3.45 0.69 119 1.2 Pat Clements
Joe Nathan 49.3 9.68 2.37 1.28 121 0.9 Lee Smith
Joakim Soria 49.0 8.63 2.57 1.10 115 0.8 Mike Schooler
Cory Burns 67.7 7.84 3.46 0.93 104 0.8 Alejandro Pena
Josh Lindblom 69.0 8.22 4.04 1.43 97 0.6 Bo Donaldson
Yoshinori Tateyama 49.7 7.97 2.72 1.27 102 0.5 Jeff Montgomery
Martin Perez 137.7 4.71 4.18 1.11 81 0.5 Greg Kubes
Michael Kirkman 94.7 7.70 5.51 1.14 85 0.5 Bobby Sprowl
Tanner Scheppers 57.3 7.07 3.14 1.10 94 0.4 Derek Hasselhoff
Justin Miller 57.0 6.79 4.89 1.11 94 0.3 Joel Moore
Joe Ortiz 58.7 5.21 2.30 1.38 93 0.3 Ryan Meaux
Cody Buckel 108.7 6.87 4.64 1.49 80 0.3 Joaquin Benoit
Mark Lowe 39.3 7.79 3.44 1.37 97 0.3 Matt Karchner
Evan Meek 50.0 6.84 5.40 1.26 85 0.0 Mike Cook
Matthew West 23.0 5.48 5.09 1.17 81 -0.1 Scott Munter
Willie Eyre 58.3 5.25 4.32 1.08 82 -0.1 Jason Childers
Justin Grimm 126.0 5.07 3.64 1.43 76 -0.1 Peter Bauer
Randy Wells 110.3 5.14 3.67 1.55 75 -0.1 Dennis Tankersley
Jeff Beliveau 62.0 8.13 4.79 1.60 83 -0.1 Jesus Pena
Wilmer Font 53.3 9.79 6.59 1.69 82 -0.1 Dana Ridenour
Neal Cotts 28.3 6.68 5.72 1.27 78 -0.2 Eddie Oropesa
Aaron Heilman 48.7 6.28 3.88 1.48 80 -0.2 Jason Childers
Sean Green 32.3 5.85 5.85 1.11 76 -0.2 Jerry Johnson
Ross Wolf 61.0 5.31 3.69 1.33 77 -0.4 Bob Scanlan
Coty Woods 54.0 6.17 4.17 1.67 76 -0.4 Billy Taylor
Roman Mendez 90.7 6.05 4.66 1.59 72 -0.4 Jeremy King
Tommy Hottovy 55.7 6.14 4.69 1.78 72 -0.6 Eddie Oropesa
Neil Ramirez 105.3 6.50 5.04 1.71 70 -0.7 Darrel Akerfelds
Collin Balester 68.0 6.75 4.24 1.85 73 -0.7 Bo Hall
Zach Simons 54.0 5.83 6.50 2.17 60 -1.4 Mumba Rivera
Greg Reynolds 125.0 3.38 3.02 1.66 64 -1.7 Bill King
Zach Jackson 117.0 3.38 4.77 1.62 62 -2.0 Chris Peters

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

26 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Pinstripe Wizard
13 years ago

Funny that John Smoltz and Tony Armas are both listed as comps here. It reminds me of a little joke Smoltzy told on a Braves broadcast one time.

Tony Armas is the leader of the Body Part All-Stars. Toe, Knee, Arm, ….

11
my jays are red
13 years ago
Reply to  Pinstripe Wizard

ass

-6
Pinstripe Wizard
13 years ago
Reply to  my jays are red

Yes. That was the … at the end.

3
baycommuter
13 years ago
Reply to  my jays are red

The joke is better when you don’t spell it out.

-2
Stuck in a slump
13 years ago

I don’t like to nitpick with the authors here, but couldn’t help but notice this:

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Nationals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

4
Buck Turgidson
13 years ago

Is Beltre moving to 1b/dh role? How will that effect his value? Instantly be the best 1b in the AL maybe. And how old is he?

Wow, Darvish for 6 wins and Harrison for 4? Dunno about that.

I think the Rangers are in a bit of a limbo. Lots of unanswered questions with the rotation, young infielders and plain old shitty outfielders and could be battling Seattle for 3d place.

-4
Boxkutter
13 years ago
Reply to  Buck Turgidson

Why would they move Beltre to 1B/DH? He is one of the best defensive 3B of this era.

10
Badspellr
13 years ago
Reply to  Boxkutter

Nothing is officially out there yet, but there is some indication that Kinsler will be moved to first, Profar to second, and the left side of the IF unchanged. Olt and Moreland will DH platoon or else spell one of the regulars in the field.

Barring a trade, this seems like the most efficient way to deploy the talent on hand.

-1
TKDC
13 years ago
Reply to  Buck Turgidson

Or they could sign Michael Bourn and actually have a decent outfield. I still think they will. They have the money.

1
Ivan Grushenko
13 years ago

Cliff Lee, John Smoltz, Bartolo Colon, Lee Smith, Jeff Montgomery….that’s a pretty awesome set of comps for guys who aren’t even among the top 3 starters. OTOH Mark Ellis, D’Angelo Jimenez, Hank Majeski…..ew.

1
Dan Szymborski
13 years ago
Reply to  Ivan Grushenko

Don’t forget, that comp is D’Angelo Jimenez, who had his career derailed considerably by a terrible car accident that nearly left him paralyzed. It was amazing that he got back onto the field so quickly, but he spent a few prime development years just getting back to where he was before the injury.

0
Tim A
13 years ago

Unless I am miistaken, Roy Oswalt is a FA , not there 5th best pitcher. I doubt he returns to Texas after the way his time went there last season.

-1
BobbyS
13 years ago
Reply to  Tim A

Free Agents are usually posted with their most recent team, until signed… as ZiPs gives a projection for one more year to guys that retire or move to Japan

0
Mike D
13 years ago

I asked this in the previous article… have pitcher wins been dropped from ZiPS projections?

0
Dan Szymborski
13 years ago
Reply to  Mike D

I still project them, but doesn’t appear that Generalissimo Cistulli fit those columns!

0
Mike D
13 years ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

OK – will they be on FanGraphs at some point then?

1
Baltar
13 years ago

Unofficial wins (not the official ZiPS projection) of 88. Sounds about right.

0
Calibar
13 years ago
Reply to  Baltar

88 with a different manager; 83 with Ron Washington as manager.

1
Izzy Hechkoff
13 years ago

Beltre has beat 4.8 WAR by a lot the last three years. What makes you think that he’ll decline this much. A simply 5/3/2 average over the past three years suggests a 6.3 WAR. Aging shouldn’t cause that much of a decline.

1
Dan Szymborski
13 years ago
Reply to  Izzy Hechkoff

Beltre’s risk, especially at 34, is fairly one-sided. There’s a *lot* more downside risk than upside risk – there are many more scenarios that would cause Beltre to miss his 3 year average by 3 wins than beat his 3 year average by 3 wins (or even 2).

4
Matt
13 years ago

I know it doesn’t matter too much, but its going to be funny to see some of the ridiculous batting orders Wash creates for this Rangers squad. Could be like the 2011 postseason, where the 6-7 hitters carried the club.

1
Tex Pantego
13 years ago

Now that Wash can’t put Young in the heart of the line-up, we’ll see if he catches on to the fact that Kinsler is not a leadoff hitter.

0
Tanner Scheppers
13 years ago

At least it’s Derek Hasselhoff, and not David…

0
Scot
13 years ago

Any chance of getting a projection for Berkman now tat he has signed?

1
mg
13 years ago

I thought you kept guys on their prior team until they signed elsewhere – where’s Mike Napoli? Do you have a ZiPS on him yet?

0
Antonio Bananas
13 years ago

Can there not be some sort of confidence number or range? I mean, 6 for Darvish seems like absolute upside. I’d say more of a 4-6 range. This also shows how stable a guy is (which is important). As opposed to say Verlander who I’d estimate is a 6.5-7.5 range. More likely to be great.

0