2013 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the NL East champion Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski

Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants..

Batters
The most interesting projection for the Nationals is probably Bryce Harper’s because one of the most interesting projections in all baseball is probably Bryce Harper’s. ZiPS forecasts Harper to approximate his Rookie of the Year campaign, when he posted a 4.9 WAR. Certain readers might consider said forecast pessimistic, given that Harper will be a year more experienced and a year closer to his peak in 2013. Still, he (i.e. Harper) is projected to be the best field player on a strong team as a 20-year-old.

As Szymborski noted via Twitter, one of Harper’s first three comparables* is Barry Bonds — which, that’s a thing. Of greater interest to the author, however, is Harper’s first overall comp, Kal Daniels — less because of what it signifies for Harper, probably, and more because it allows us to remember how excellent Daniels was.

Drafted by the Reds in 1982, Daniels made his major-league debut as a 22-year-old in 1986 and proceeded to slash .300/.402/.514 and post a 16.9 WAR over his first six seasons and 1,970 plate appearances — i.e. over five wins for every 600 plate appearances. However, injuries shortened his career considerably, and he retired after his age-28 season. The author had forgotten all of that, is mostly the point here.

*A very brief primer on comparables, courtesy Szymborski: “Comps are based on neutralized statistics over previous four years, both for distribution and quality, position, handedness, some indices like a modified speed score. I use some cluster analysis to get comp scores.”

Pitchers
ZiPS doesn’t know that Stephen Strasburg was handled cautiously by the Nats in 2012 and the innings projection for the right-hander is duly conservative in that regard. Even so, his per-inning figures (69 ERA-, 58 FIP-) are the best of the pitchers to have been projected so far, with the exception of Sergio Romo. Another thing ZiPS doesn’t know is that Dan Haren’s own team refused to extend to him a $13.3 million qualifying offer. If ZiPS, and not the Angels, are accurate in this regard, Washington will have a bit of a bargain in Haren.

The bullpen is composed almost exclusively of returnees from the 2012 squad, including Christian Garcia and his emasculating curveball.

To wit:

Bench/Prospects
Our Marc Hulet and also Baseball America have recently ranked third-base prospect Anthony Rendon as the second– and first-best prospect in the Washington system, respectively. ZiPS suggests that he’s also the most major-league ready, projecting him for a 1.9 WAR in just 358 plate appearances. The presence of Ryan Zimmerman raises the question of where his future home might be, however. Catcher Sandy Leon has a great defensive reputation and would, it seems, provide production on something like par with either Kurt Suzuki or Wilson Ramos, should either or both be unable to play. Third-base prospect Carlos Rivero, who turns 25 in May, has been all over the Venezuelan Winter League leaderboards this offseason.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Nationals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Batters, Rates and Averages

Batters, Assorted Other

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.