2013 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the NL East champion Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski

Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants..

Batters
The most interesting projection for the Nationals is probably Bryce Harper’s because one of the most interesting projections in all baseball is probably Bryce Harper’s. ZiPS forecasts Harper to approximate his Rookie of the Year campaign, when he posted a 4.9 WAR. Certain readers might consider said forecast pessimistic, given that Harper will be a year more experienced and a year closer to his peak in 2013. Still, he (i.e. Harper) is projected to be the best field player on a strong team as a 20-year-old.

As Szymborski noted via Twitter, one of Harper’s first three comparables* is Barry Bonds — which, that’s a thing. Of greater interest to the author, however, is Harper’s first overall comp, Kal Daniels — less because of what it signifies for Harper, probably, and more because it allows us to remember how excellent Daniels was.

Drafted by the Reds in 1982, Daniels made his major-league debut as a 22-year-old in 1986 and proceeded to slash .300/.402/.514 and post a 16.9 WAR over his first six seasons and 1,970 plate appearances — i.e. over five wins for every 600 plate appearances. However, injuries shortened his career considerably, and he retired after his age-28 season. The author had forgotten all of that, is mostly the point here.

*A very brief primer on comparables, courtesy Szymborski: “Comps are based on neutralized statistics over previous four years, both for distribution and quality, position, handedness, some indices like a modified speed score. I use some cluster analysis to get comp scores.”

Pitchers
ZiPS doesn’t know that Stephen Strasburg was handled cautiously by the Nats in 2012 and the innings projection for the right-hander is duly conservative in that regard. Even so, his per-inning figures (69 ERA-, 58 FIP-) are the best of the pitchers to have been projected so far, with the exception of Sergio Romo. Another thing ZiPS doesn’t know is that Dan Haren’s own team refused to extend to him a $13.3 million qualifying offer. If ZiPS, and not the Angels, are accurate in this regard, Washington will have a bit of a bargain in Haren.

The bullpen is composed almost exclusively of returnees from the 2012 squad, including Christian Garcia and his emasculating curveball.

To wit:

Bench/Prospects
Our Marc Hulet and also Baseball America have recently ranked third-base prospect Anthony Rendon as the second– and first-best prospect in the Washington system, respectively. ZiPS suggests that he’s also the most major-league ready, projecting him for a 1.9 WAR in just 358 plate appearances. The presence of Ryan Zimmerman raises the question of where his future home might be, however. Catcher Sandy Leon has a great defensive reputation and would, it seems, provide production on something like par with either Kurt Suzuki or Wilson Ramos, should either or both be unable to play. Third-base prospect Carlos Rivero, who turns 25 in May, has been all over the Venezuelan Winter League leaderboards this offseason.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Nationals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Bryce Harper	L	20	LF	641	89	156	29	7	26	70	21	8
Ryan Zimmerman	R	28	3B	607	83	152	31	2	23	87	4	1
Ian Desmond	R	27	SS	611	71	152	30	4	18	70	22	7
Danny Espinosa	B	26	2B	653	79	137	30	4	20	66	17	7
Denard Span	L	29	CF	568	68	141	27	8	4	42	17	5
Kurt Suzuki	R	29	C	509	54	123	26	1	12	62	3	1
Anthony Rendon	R	23	3B	358	44	77	17	5	9	46	1	1
Adam LaRoche	L	33	1B	478	53	106	24	1	19	72	1	1
Jayson Werth	R	34	RF	501	61	110	24	2	15	53	11	2
Steve Lombardozzi	B	24	2B	584	66	143	25	8	5	42	14	7
Wilson Ramos	R	25	C	311	32	74	14	1	9	34	0	1
Michael Morse	R	31	1B	481	58	121	22	1	21	73	1	2
Corey Brown	L	27	CF	534	62	111	19	8	17	58	10	5
Sandy Leon	B	24	C	374	34	81	17	2	4	34	2	3
Eury Perez	R	23	CF	589	59	156	16	4	0	44	45	17
Roger Bernadina	L	29	LF	369	39	82	14	2	9	31	18	4
Jhonatan Solano	R	27	C	264	24	61	13	0	5	28	1	1
Carlos Rivero	R	25	3B	567	54	134	27	2	9	56	4	4
Jarrett Hoffpauir	R	30	2B	424	41	97	20	3	6	39	3	1
Tyler Moore	R	26	1B	479	47	103	25	2	20	71	2	0
Cesar Izturis	B	33	SS	242	19	56	8	2	1	16	4	2
Jesus Flores	R	28	C	261	23	56	13	1	6	28	0	1
Rick Ankiel	L	33	CF	296	32	61	15	1	8	27	4	2
Will Rhymes	L	30	2B	482	52	114	15	5	4	32	9	7
Erik Komatsu	L	25	LF	400	41	91	16	2	4	30	11	7
Chad Tracy	L	33	1B	168	13	39	8	0	3	20	0	0
Carlos Maldonado	R	34	C	176	14	31	7	0	3	17	0	0
Jeff Kobernus	R	25	2B	424	42	99	13	2	3	33	29	10
Brian Bocock	R	28	2B	418	37	81	15	2	3	30	9	5
Destin Hood	R	23	RF	513	46	111	23	5	7	55	10	4
Manny Mayorson	R	30	3B	318	29	76	12	1	1	25	8	3
Chris Marrero	R	24	1B	476	45	110	23	1	9	50	1	2
Brett Carroll	R	30	RF	428	45	87	20	2	9	41	6	3
Mark DeRosa	R	38	3B	120	14	24	4	0	0	9	1	0
Seth Bynum	R	32	SS	408	36	76	16	2	9	40	6	2
Jason Michaels	R	37	LF	133	13	28	6	0	2	11	0	0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bryce Harper	641	9.8%	21.2%	.212	.316	.274	.346	.486	.357
Ryan Zimmerman	607	9.4%	17.6%	.191	.309	.280	.348	.471	.347
Ian Desmond	611	5.4%	20.6%	.163	.316	.269	.312	.432	.320
Danny Espinosa	653	7.7%	27.7%	.168	.304	.235	.308	.403	.307
Denard Span	568	7.6%	10.4%	.107	.301	.273	.330	.380	.313
Kurt Suzuki	509	5.1%	11.8%	.137	.277	.263	.308	.400	.305
Anthony Rendon	358	10.3%	22.1%	.170	.296	.242	.327	.412	.324
Adam LaRoche	478	9.8%	23.4%	.196	.291	.249	.322	.445	.325
Jayson Werth	501	11.6%	22.8%	.169	.307	.253	.345	.422	.334
Steve Lombardozzi	584	5.5%	13.2%	.105	.303	.267	.316	.372	.298
Wilson Ramos	311	6.8%	17.4%	.151	.291	.260	.314	.411	.305
Michael Morse	481	5.4%	22.5%	.195	.313	.272	.320	.467	.336
Corey Brown	534	7.9%	31.1%	.179	.312	.230	.296	.409	.302
Sandy Leon	374	7.8%	20.9%	.098	.298	.240	.300	.338	.276
Eury Perez	589	2.9%	16.1%	.043	.337	.281	.307	.324	.279
Roger Bernadina	369	8.1%	20.9%	.137	.297	.248	.317	.385	.309
Jhonatan Solano	264	4.2%	14.8%	.113	.272	.247	.281	.360	.276
Carlos Rivero	567	5.1%	20.6%	.110	.306	.254	.292	.364	.283
Jarrett Hoffpauir	424	6.6%	11.1%	.114	.269	.251	.303	.365	.291
Tyler Moore	479	5.8%	29.4%	.200	.289	.233	.280	.433	.306
Cesar Izturis	242	3.3%	9.9%	.066	.271	.247	.277	.313	.256
Jesus Flores	261	4.6%	24.1%	.134	.281	.229	.265	.363	.266
Rick Ankiel	296	7.4%	28.0%	.152	.294	.226	.288	.378	.287
Will Rhymes	482	6.6%	10.4%	.085	.285	.261	.314	.346	.286
Erik Komatsu	400	8.3%	14.3%	.090	.290	.254	.322	.344	.292
Chad Tracy	168	7.1%	16.1%	.111	.288	.255	.310	.366	.285
Carlos Maldonado	176	9.7%	27.3%	.103	.267	.200	.282	.303	.261
Jeff Kobernus	424	3.3%	20.3%	.065	.307	.248	.275	.313	.260
Brian Bocock	418	6.5%	22.2%	.073	.268	.211	.263	.284	.241
Destin Hood	513	6.4%	24.0%	.115	.303	.237	.294	.352	.285
Manny Mayorson	318	3.8%	7.5%	.057	.271	.252	.283	.309	.261
Chris Marrero	476	7.1%	21.6%	.119	.310	.253	.311	.372	.299
Brett Carroll	428	6.3%	24.1%	.131	.279	.224	.284	.355	.279
Mark DeRosa	120	10.0%	19.2%	.038	.289	.229	.311	.267	.266
Seth Bynum	408	5.6%	33.3%	.124	.285	.201	.251	.325	.252
Jason Michaels	133	5.3%	19.5%	.095	.265	.222	.263	.317	.257

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Bryce Harper	641	6.4	124	8	4.6	Kal Daniels
Ryan Zimmerman	607	6.2	121	1	4.3	Ken McMullen
Ian Desmond	611	5.1	101	0	3.4	Julio Lugo
Danny Espinosa	653	4.4	93	6	2.8	Sean Rodriguez
Denard Span	568	4.8	94	7	2.7	David DeJesus
Kurt Suzuki	509	4.6	92	0	2.2	Mark Poole
Anthony Rendon	358	4.8	100	3	1.9	Mark Bellhorn
Adam LaRoche	478	5.1	107	5	1.9	Lee Stevens
Jayson Werth	501	5.4	108	-2	1.8	Tim Salmon
Steve Lombardozzi	584	4.3	87	2	1.7	Joseph Thurston
Wilson Ramos	311	4.6	96	2	1.6	Javier Cordona
Michael Morse	481	5.5	112	-2	1.5	Xavier Nady
Corey Brown	534	4.3	90	-1	1.4	Brad Snyder
Sandy Leon	374	3.5	74	7	1.4	Dave Huppert
Eury Perez	589	4.0	73	4	1.1	Willy Taveras
Roger Bernadina	369	4.7	91	1	1.0	Pat Sheridan
Jhonatan Solano	264	3.6	74	3	0.8	Gustavo Molina
Carlos Rivero	567	3.8	78	-2	0.6	Jeff Moronko
Jarrett Hoffpauir	424	4.0	82	-3	0.6	Stu Cole
Tyler Moore	479	4.3	91	-1	0.5	John Sellick
Cesar Izturis	242	3.1	61	2	0.3	Tommy Thevenow
Jesus Flores	261	3.3	70	-1	0.3	Chris Curry
Rick Ankiel	296	3.8	80	-2	0.3	Dann Howitt
Will Rhymes	482	3.8	80	-5	0.3	Luis Figueroa
Erik Komatsu	400	3.9	82	1	0.2	Jorge Cortes
Chad Tracy	168	4.1	84	-2	0.2	Glenn Adams
Carlos Maldonado	176	2.9	60	-1	0.1	George Mitterwald
Jeff Kobernus	424	3.3	61	-1	0.1	Greg Tabor
Brian Bocock	418	2.5	50	5	-0.1	Jon Schuerholz
Destin Hood	513	3.7	76	0	-0.1	Xavier Paul
Manny Mayorson	318	3.2	62	-1	-0.1	Carlo Colombino
Chris Marrero	476	4.1	86	-3	-0.1	Ron Coomer
Brett Carroll	428	3.5	73	0	-0.2	Nick Gorneault
Mark DeRosa	120	3.0	60	-2	-0.2	Rene Gonzales
Seth Bynum	408	2.8	56	-4	-0.3	Trace Coquillette
Jason Michaels	133	2.9	58	-1	-0.4	Brian Jordan

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Gio Gonzalez	L	27	32	32	200.0	200	76	15	165	72	67
Stephen Strasburg	R	24	24	24	137.3	164	35	11	112	44	41
Jordan Zimmermann	R	27	26	26	152.7	119	33	15	147	62	58
Dan Haren	R	32	30	29	186.7	151	37	23	187	87	81
Ross Detwiler	L	27	27	23	130.3	84	43	12	135	63	59
Tyler Clippard	R	28	74	0	79.0	95	30	8	60	28	26
Craig Stammen	R	29	57	0	83.3	83	35	8	70	32	30
Drew Storen	R	25	59	0	56.3	52	17	5	49	21	20
Daniel Rosenbaum	L	25	26	25	142.3	81	50	13	161	79	74
Christian Garcia	R	27	59	0	62.3	61	24	8	53	27	25
Ryan Perry	R	26	46	6	76.3	51	29	7	78	39	36
Henry Rodriguez	R	26	52	0	51.7	58	33	5	40	22	21
Mike Gonzalez	L	35	43	0	36.7	38	14	4	33	16	15
Erik Davis	R	26	49	0	71.3	57	22	8	75	36	34
Ryan Mattheus	R	29	51	0	49.0	35	18	7	48	25	23
Brad Lidge	R	36	25	0	22.3	22	12	2	20	11	10
Fernando Abad	L	27	50	5	66.0	51	20	8	71	36	34
Nathan Karns	R	25	20	16	82.7	80	59	14	75	50	47
Bill Bray	L	30	47	0	32.0	29	18	3	30	17	16
Cole Kimball	R	27	25	0	29.3	27	18	4	27	16	15
Chien-Ming Wang	R	33	20	17	92.7	44	27	14	114	60	56
Jimmy Barthmaier	R	29	28	2	42.3	28	22	5	47	27	25
Mike MacDougal	R	36	43	0	38.7	25	23	4	45	25	23
Zach Duke	L	30	28	21	130.0	62	40	18	166	87	81
Yunesky Maya	R	31	18	18	99.3	42	35	17	121	68	64
Tanner Roark	R	26	25	23	121.7	74	50	16	152	83	78
Mitch Atkins	R	27	28	20	112.7	65	48	18	138	79	74

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Gio Gonzalez	200.0	818	24.4%	9.3%	.277	3.02	3.02	77	77
Stephen Strasburg	137.3	540	30.4%	6.5%	.297	2.69	2.26	69	58
Jordan Zimmermann	152.7	618	19.2%	5.3%	.283	3.42	3.24	87	83
Dan Haren	186.7	764	19.8%	4.8%	.285	3.91	3.50	100	89
Ross Detwiler	130.3	550	15.3%	7.8%	.291	4.07	3.73	104	95
Tyler Clippard	79.0	320	29.7%	9.4%	.267	2.96	3.04	76	78
Craig Stammen	83.3	344	24.1%	10.2%	.275	3.24	3.38	83	86
Drew Storen	56.3	227	22.9%	7.5%	.279	3.20	3.07	82	78
Daniel Rosenbaum	142.3	618	13.1%	8.1%	.304	4.68	3.94	119	100
Christian Garcia	62.3	254	24.0%	9.5%	.268	3.61	3.66	92	93
Ryan Perry	76.3	326	15.6%	8.9%	.289	4.24	3.88	108	99
Henry Rodriguez	51.7	223	26.1%	14.8%	.267	3.66	3.88	93	99
Mike Gonzalez	36.7	152	25.0%	9.2%	.291	3.68	3.38	94	86
Erik Davis	71.3	300	19.0%	7.3%	.304	4.29	3.62	109	92
Ryan Mattheus	49.0	204	17.2%	8.8%	.273	4.22	4.23	108	108
Brad Lidge	22.3	97	22.7%	12.4%	.289	4.03	3.83	103	98
Fernando Abad	66.0	282	18.1%	7.1%	.300	4.64	3.87	118	99
Nathan Karns	82.7	372	21.5%	15.9%	.262	5.12	5.30	131	135
Bill Bray	32.0	141	20.5%	12.7%	.287	4.50	4.13	115	105
Cole Kimball	29.3	129	20.9%	13.9%	.274	4.60	4.71	117	120
Chien-Ming Wang	92.7	405	10.9%	6.7%	.300	5.44	4.71	139	120
Jimmy Barthmaier	42.3	190	14.8%	11.6%	.302	5.31	4.63	135	118
Mike MacDougal	38.7	178	14.0%	12.9%	.317	5.35	4.67	136	119
Zach Duke	130.0	577	10.8%	6.9%	.312	5.61	4.58	143	117
Yunesky Maya	99.3	440	9.5%	8.0%	.287	5.80	5.28	148	135
Tanner Roark	121.7	550	13.5%	9.1%	.320	5.77	4.56	147	116
Mitch Atkins	112.7	510	12.7%	9.4%	.302	5.91	5.09	151	130

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Gio Gonzalez	200.0	9.00	3.42	0.68	132	5.3	Sam McDowell
Stephen Strasburg	137.3	10.75	2.29	0.72	148	4.2	Roger Clemens
Jordan Zimmermann	152.7	7.01	1.94	0.88	116	3.3	Shane Reynolds
Dan Haren	186.7	7.28	1.78	1.11	102	2.9	Kevin Tapani
Ross Detwiler	130.3	5.80	2.97	0.83	98	1.7	Dave Otto
Tyler Clippard	79.0	10.82	3.42	0.91	134	1.5	Juan Cruz
Craig Stammen	83.3	8.97	3.78	0.86	123	1.3	Frank Williams
Drew Storen	56.3	8.31	2.72	0.80	124	0.9	Heath Haynes
Daniel Rosenbaum	142.3	5.12	3.16	0.82	85	0.9	Jeff Mutis
Christian Garcia	62.3	8.81	3.47	1.16	110	0.7	Joey McLaughlin
Ryan Perry	76.3	6.02	3.42	0.83	94	0.5	Laddie Renfroe
Henry Rodriguez	51.7	10.10	5.74	0.87	109	0.5	Steve Sharts
Mike Gonzalez	36.7	9.32	3.43	0.98	108	0.4	Trever Miller
Erik Davis	71.3	7.19	2.78	1.01	93	0.2	Randy Messenger
Ryan Mattheus	49.0	6.43	3.31	1.29	94	0.2	John Kiely
Brad Lidge	22.3	8.88	4.84	0.81	99	0.1	Rudy Seanez
Fernando Abad	66.0	6.95	2.73	1.09	86	0.1	Jesse Carlson
Nathan Karns	82.7	8.71	6.42	1.52	78	0.0	Mo Sanford
Bill Bray	32.0	8.16	5.06	0.84	88	0.0	Mike Kinnunen
Cole Kimball	29.3	8.29	5.53	1.23	86	0.0	Franklyn German
Chien-Ming Wang	92.7	4.27	2.62	1.36	73	-0.3	Brian Tollberg
Jimmy Barthmaier	42.3	5.96	4.68	1.06	75	-0.3	Paul Giel
Mike MacDougal	38.7	5.81	5.35	0.93	74	-0.4	Ben Weber
Zach Duke	130.0	4.29	2.77	1.25	71	-0.7	Scott Downs
Yunesky Maya	99.3	3.81	3.17	1.54	69	-0.7	Steve Olin
Tanner Roark	121.7	5.47	3.70	1.18	69	-0.9	Adam Russell
Mitch Atkins	112.7	5.19	3.83	1.44	67	-1.1	Lee Rodney

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.