The hard-throwing, 24-year-old Matt Harvey has quickly become a must watch when he toes the rubber for the Mets. Called up in late July of last year, Harvey and his blistering fastball (94.6 average velocity) currently sport a 31.3% strikeout rate and an ERA- of 25 — no, not 75, 25. In 2013, Harvey has made four starts, lasting at least seven innings in each appearance. He has only allowed one home run and a paltry 10 hits in 29 innings.

Harvey does feature a number of pitches, but he’s heavily reliant on his four-seam fastball, throwing that pitch 60% of the time. That ranks him fifth among all qualified pitchers in 2013. And that fastball has been deadly.

According to the PITCHf/x leader boards at Baseball Prospectus (powered by Brooks Baseball), Harvey has induced a .042 ISO (2nd best) and a .167 BA (3rd best) against when using his fastball. David Golebiewski from Baseball Analytics recently wrote about Harvey’s ability to win with the high fastball. The numbers were eye-popping. Harvey so far this year has induced whiffs on high fastballs 48.4% of the time, and he’s throwing upstairs over 50% of the time.

I was curious how this compared to others this year and in previous years. So I did some digging.

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Declarative baseball statements on April 24 surely don’t have much of a track record, but let me be clear: this is not, and will not be, the Year of the Rookie. To pretend as though 2013 will hold a candle to 2012 in terms of on-field rookie impact would be a lie. But, our series forges on regardless, and in even in down rookie seasons like this one, there are still phenoms (Jose Fernandez) and there are still great stories (Jim Henderson). Though neither of those solid April performers cracked today’s list.

One thing we have noticed is very strange: the American League offers nothing to chew on. This list contains four names and all are National Leaguers, and frankly, the NL would offer at least 8 rookies before we’d be forced to consider a player from the AL. So, it’s a promise, this list is not biased in favor of the Senior Circuit. It’s just that we’re not yet too excited about Pedro Florimon or T.J. McFarland (your current AL ROY race). Onto this week’s edition…

1. Matt Adams, 1B/PH, St. Louis Cardinals

The key I see from Adams this season is the ability to make adjustments in the middle of an at-bat. Adams has a SwStr% more than five percent above league average, but the bulk of these are occurring early in an at-bat, and oftentimes we’ll see Adams adjust against the same pitch a few pitches later. Let’s track three great examples with the help of the Brooks Baseball Pitch F/X tool.
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Yes, well obviously Roberto Hernandez is not Fausto Carmona. The name Fausto Carmona belongs to someone else, and though the history of Cleveland Indians starting pitcher “Fausto Carmona” belongs to Roberto Hernandez, the two pitchers (the one pitcher) are not the same.

What I’m saying is: Roberto Hernandez is striking out batters.

He has a 22.5% K-rate right now. His previous career high was 17.1%, but that was mostly as a rookie reliever. As a starter, his highest K-rate was 15.6%. In fact, if we dig even deeper, we find his 22.5% K-rate is the highest strikeout rate he’s ever posted over a four game period:

His recent success — underscored and even underappreciated in his 3.75 FIP and 3.60 SIERA — appears to be the product of deliberate changes. That suggests he could maintain a new level of success.
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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Notable Florida State League Peformances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: High-A Florida State League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Three Notable Florida State League Peformances
The leaderboards for the High-A Florida State League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards — like who they are mostly, for example.

• Out-performing the rest of the FSL at the moment is Toronto infield prospect Andrew Burns. An 11th-round pick in 2011 by the Blue Jays out of the University of Arizona, Burns has posted an impressive 13:6 walk-to-strikeout ratio, while also hitting two home runs, for Dunedin. The plate-discipline figures represent a marked improvement over his previously established levels. While little digital ink has been spilled with regard to Burns, John Sickels did note in his top-20 prospect list for Toronto that “[i]f you want a sleeper, keep an eye on infielder Andy Burns, who showed a potent power/speed combo in Low-A before getting injured in July. He’s under the radar but he’s got tools and some skills to go with them.”

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Rarely do players successfully transition to more difficult positions, but the Cleveland Indians believe second base prospect Tony Wolters can be the next infielder to be successful converted into a catcher. It’s common for a player to move to a less valuable position when his abilities fall short of major league competency, but occasionally a player will increase his value by moving to a more demanding position. At Florida State University, Buster Posey played third base before permanently moving to catcher. Philadelphia’s backstop Carlos Ruiz was a second baseman before making the switch. Like Posey and Ruiz, the Indians think Wolters can be a starting catcher on a championship caliber team.

Wolters was selected in the third round of the 2010 Rule 4 draft out of Vista, Calif., and signed for $1.35 million, the equivalent of a mid-to-late first round bonus. He’s a grinder — an intense, hard working scrapper who plays above his tools — with a chatty demeanor that fits perfectly behind the plate. As a hitter, Wolters derives surprising power from his quick hands and aggressive line drive swing. When he starts swinging for the fences he isn’t as short to the ball, but generally he stays within himself with a crisp gap-to-gap approach.

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Monday night, Jesus Montero went where no man has gone before — at least in 2013 — with this mammoth home run to center field at Minute Maid Park. With the blast, Montero became the first player to homer to dead-center field at Minute Maid this season. Observe, all home runs at Minute Maid Park, with 2013 home runs in blue (Montero’s marked by a “+”):

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The third team to play while I was in Lexington was the Greenville Drive. Last year would have been the season to see this team as Garin Cecchini, Blake Swihart, Keury De La Cruz, Matt Barnes, Henry Owens, and others lined the roster. This season’s team definitely doesn’t have the star power, and I wasn’t terribly impressed by the overall level of talent. I will say, however, that the weather was cold – the low 50s/high 40s – and windy, but the team did not impress over the two games I saw them.
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The Fringe Five, in case you’re wondering and also don’t know, is a weekly exercise (introduced last Tuesday) wherein the author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and his own man-heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

“What precisely the hell do you mean by fringe?” a particularly combative reader might ask. To which query the author would reply: “Currently, a fringe prospect is one who was absent from all of three notable preseaon top-100 prospect lists.” And to which the author would continue responding as follows: “There is more discussion of the definition of fringe here.”

Being as this is merely the second installment of a column that is likely to run either (a) forever or (b) until the present author dies nobly in a Bloodsport-type combat situation, it’s fair to say that the criteria for inclusion among the Fringe Five is not entirely fixed at this point.

By way of illustration: four of the five players here are the same precise ones that appeared among the Fringe Five last week. That’s mostly because last year’s and this past winter’s performances are still very relevant. By way of even more illustration, the one player who’s departed from the Five (i.e. Joc Pederson) hasn’t been demoted for lack of performance, at all. In fact, Pederson has slashed something like .409/.500/.864 over the past week, with a 4:4 walk-to-strikeout ratio and two home runs.

Rather, the reason for Pederson’s exclusion has everything to do with how the author has parleyed with his True Self and found his True Self ultimately unmoved by Pederson. Does Joc Pederson have a future as a major leaguer? Almost certainly, yes, given his performance of late. Whatever he’s doing, however, is somehow not entirely consonant with the spirit of the Fringe Five.

Meanwhile, the player by whom Pederson has been replaced, Cardinals outfield half-prospect Mike O’Neill, is the sort whom we ought all to be celebrating constantly. One can read more about O’Neill below — and all the other members of this week’s Fringe Five.

Chase Anderson, RHP, Arizona (Profile)
After his considerable success in the Southern League last season — and also in the Arizona Fall League after that — right-hander Chase Anderson has done little to dispel the notion (if such a notion even exists) that he’s worthy of major-league baseball. Here’s his line from the past week, for example, in two Pacific Coast League starts: 10.0 IP, 12 K, 4 BB, 0 HR.

Also, here’s a changeup by Anderson to Trent Oeltjen from April 11th:

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Ben and Sam answer listener emails about whether PECOTA underestimates the Yankees, how to improve ERA, Coco Crisp the MVP candidate, and in-season stats vs. projections.

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