Archive for April, 2013

There’s Going to Be a Colby Rasmus Change

Colby Rasmus is amazing. Still just 26, and an elite-level talent, Rasmus is presently slugging .536. He’s a center fielder who clubs like a DH, and his slugging percentage is beating those of Albert Pujols and Anthony Rizzo. Rasmus owns a 135 wRC+, which was Joe Morgan’s career wRC+. It’s a better wRC+ than those being posted by Carlos Beltran, Andrew McCutchen, and Michael Morse. Rasmus is finally coming into his own, and he’s looking like the superstar the Blue Jays have wanted him to become.

Colby Rasmus is a nightmare. For every seven plate appearances, he’s struck out three times, whiffing more often than batters have whiffed against Max Scherzer. His on-base percentage is being supported by a lofty BABIP, and Rasmus has swung through the ball with nearly half of his swings. With nearly half of his swings! Rasmus’ approach has shown no signs of improvement, and it looks like he’s going to continue to be exploitable for as long as he’s a part of the game.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Amalgamates Three Things

Episode 328
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) a guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he combines or unites to form one organization or structure.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 39 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Appreciating Bill Freehan

Yesterday, I was doing some All-Star Game research. In doing so, I came across the name of Bill Freehan, and was surprised to find that he started for the American League at catcher for seven straight years. Doing some more digging, I realized he was essentially the best catcher of whom I had never heard. The classic “whole is greater than the sum of his parts” player, there wasn’t anything that Freehan did poorly.

Read the rest of this entry »


Anatomy of Brandon Phillips, RBI Machine

As Jeff Sullivan just pointed out, Shin-Soo Choo leads the majors in on base percentage, thanks to his willingness to endure pain for his team’s gain. #2 in the majors in OBP is teammate Joey Votto, Cincinnati’s star first baseman. The Reds acquired Choo to boost the top of their batting order, and in the first three weeks of the season, he has teamed with Votto to create havoc. Even with Zack Cozart and his .243 OBP in the #2 spot, the Reds lead the Majors in runs scored because of the sheer quantity of opportunities those two have created for their teammates.

And yet, because of how Major League Baseball has historically been covered and the numbers that are often used to tell the stories of the game, Brandon Phillips is the guy putting up numbers at an historic pace, as his 21 RBIs in 18 games put him on a trajectory to make a run at Hack Wilson’s all time RBI record. And now, his own manager is propagating the myth of who is really responsible for the Reds early success.

“On-base percentage is good. But RBIs are better,” (Dusty) Baker said.

You’re reading FanGraphs, so you’re probably predisposed to dislike that quote. Just for fun, though, let’s go through the numbers.

Read the rest of this entry »


Shin-Soo Choo: Human Bruise

You like factoids, so go ahead and choose your factoid. Shin-Soo Choo has already been hit by nine pitches. Shin-Soo Choo’s hit-by-pitch total is more than twice as high as that of the current runner-up. Shin-Soo Choo has accounted for 5.2% of the league’s hit-by-pitches while accounting for 0.4% of the league’s plate appearances. No non-Reds team in baseball has been hit by more pitches than Shin-Soo Choo this season. Shin-Soo Choo has reached base more often by hit-by-pitches than Jason Heyward has reached base by hits. Shin-Soo Choo already has the second-worst UZR in baseball, ahead only of a guy with the yips. Whoops, I don’t know how that got in there. The point is this: Shin-Soo Choo has been hit a lot, already. There is a variety of ways in which this point can be illustrated.

It’s not a total negative, or even that much of a partial negative, because Choo is leading off for the Reds and leadoff hitters are supposed to get on base. When you get hit by a pitch, you are entitled to a base! Through three weeks or so, Choo has made fewer outs than non-outs, and this is a guy in the Reds lineup who isn’t Joey Votto. As long as Choo can get hit and not get hurt, it’ll be an overall positive, and Choo hasn’t gotten hurt to date.

Read the rest of this entry »


One Inning, Two Defensible Bunts

Although the “bunt wars” may not rage on, they are at least still simmering. The older, stale debates about whether sacrifice bunts are good strategy or the wastes of outs often miss the point by leaving aside game situation, game theory, the skill of the bunter, and other considerations. Even when such things are taken into account, discussions can get a bit abstract. Concrete examples of bunts and the situations around them can illustrate what complexities are involved in deciding whether a bunt is the right call. So let’s make it concrete: the sixth inning of the Red Sox-Royals game on Saturday provided two bunts worth closer consideration.

Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Notes: Top Performances of the Carolina League So Far

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Notable Carolina League Peformances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: High-A Carolina League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Three Notable Carolina League Peformances
The leaderboards for the High-A Carolina League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards — like who they are mostly, for example.

• In addition to being on of the Carolina League’s youngest players, Baltimore infield prospect Nick Delmonico has also been one of its most offensively productive. Taken in the sixth round of the 2011 draft by Baltimore out of a Tennessee high school, Delmonico has produced an excellent slash-line (.325/.471/.600) thus far which, despite rather a high .407 BABIP, is supported by the regressed numbers, too. After splitting time between first and second base last season, he’s played mostly third base so far in this one.

Read the rest of this entry »


Jimmy Nelson’s Rising Stock

Does Jimmy Nelson have the best pure stuff in the Brewers organization? The answer is yes, or at least that’s what a source who has closely followed the right-handed pitcher’s career told me. And after hearing that, my curiosity was piqued — especially after Nelson faltered in the second half of 2012 and posted a 7.24 BB/9 in his first taste of Double-A.

Video after the jump Read the rest of this entry »


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/22/13

Transcript after the jump.

Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 186: Deceptive Starters/Matt Harvey’s Improvement/The Blue Jays and Waiver Claims

Ben and Sam discuss the short-lived success of starters without great stuff who rely on deception, then talk about Matt Harvey and the Blue Jays’ use (or abuse) of the waiver system.