Episode 332
Just 26, Bryan Smith has written about prospects off and on (and off and on) for about a decade. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 1 min play time.)

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With a month of the minor league season in the books, chat questions are already rolling in about who the top prospect will be in 2014. Each month, I’ll take a look at players who were close in 2013 (we’ll call them “Headliners”), plus fast risers who are staking an early claim to the top spot (we’ll call them “Opening Acts”).

To begin this exercise, it’s important to understand where the number one pick comes from. Since 1990, Baseball America has been releasing its top-100 prospects list. Below is a chart of the year, number-one prospect, and where he ranked the year previous. Read the rest of this entry »

The other day on our internal message board, the shockingly handsome David Laurila pointed out that the Reds had dropped down a sacrifice bunt in the first inning the other day, and that this had struck him as strange. In exploring the subject further, I found that the practice has not yet evaporated but this there is some hope that it is lessening this season. Or at least, there would be if not for the San Diego Padres, who piled up five sacrifice hits in the first inning during April.

Let’s break down the five plays, shall we?
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Two Double-A starting pitchers with volatile prospect values faced each other on May 1. Noel Arguelles of the Kansas City Royals and Seth Blair of the St. Louis Cardinals are in the midst of make-or-break seasons.

Cuban native Arguelles signed a massive five-year, big-league contract as an international amateur free agent in January of 2010. It will pay him $7 million over the life of the contract. The southpaw injured his shoulder before getting into an official game, underwent surgery and later made his debut in High-A ball in 2011. His stuff never fully rebounded, though, and his fastball went from averaging 89-93 mph to working more in the 87-90 mph range.

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The Mets’ farm system rates in the top third of baseball due to a plethora of pitching prospects. In addition to Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero and Cory Mazzoni in the upper minors, the organization’s Florida State League affiliate has the minor leagues’ best rotation. It features Noah Syndergaard, Domingo Tapia, Luis Mateo (who is on the disabled list with an elbow injury), Michael Fulmer (DL – Meniscus) and Hansel Robles. The Savannah Sand Gnats are stocked with intriguing arms as well. Mike Newman recently discussed Gabriel Ynoa and Rainy Lara with his audience, and I mentioned the resurgence of Steven Matz several weeks ago. Read the rest of this entry »

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: St. Louis at Milwaukee, 20:10 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: St. Louis at Milwaukee, 20:10 ET
Regarding the Cardinals, Who’s Starting for Them
In terms of who’s starting for the Cardinals tonight, it’s young and prized right-hander Shelby Miller.

Regarding Shelby Miller, His Performance to Date
Regarding Shelby Miller’s performance to date, it wouldn’t be inaccurate at all to characterize it as excellent. To wit: 5 GS, 30.2 IP, 27.1% K, 8.2% BB, 45.5% GB, 3.24 SIERA, 83 xFIP-, 0.5 WAR.

Regarding Miller, His Approach
One thing regarding Shelby Miller’s approach is his reliance on just two pitches, his fastball and curve — which pitches he’s throwing a combined 99% of the time, according to PITCHf/x data.

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Jed Lowrie has played for three organizations already, despite having accrued little more than two full seasons worth of Major League plate appearances. That might be because the oft-injured 29-year-old has never had so much as 400 plate appearances in a given season since his major league debut in 2008. Through it all, he’s been trying to shake off those injuries and prove himself as a young veteran in the league. Maybe we’re just getting to know the real Jed Lowrie now.

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There are few reversal of fortune so dramatic as the 0-2 home run. When pitchers corner a batsman into an 0-2 count, said batsman has hit .154/.160/.216 through the 2013 season. The following sample of at bats combine for an immaculate 1.000/1.000/4.000 slash.

Let’s take a look at them.
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I offered my explanation for Clay Buchholz’s success this season yesterday, citing improved fastball command and a recently harnessed but always nasty changeup. Jack Morris, now on the radio call for the Toronto Blue Jays, has other ideas:

I found out because the guys on the video camera showed it to me right after the game,” he said. “I didn’t see it during the game. They showed it to me and said, ‘What do you think of this?’ and I said, ‘Well, he’s throwing a spitter. Cause that’s what it is.

The scandal, if one can even call it such, involves video of rosin on Buchholz’s left forearm. The accusations are tenuous at best, and as Morris himself put it, “I can’t prove anything. I can’t prove anything.” Although Morris wasn’t the only one to accuse Buchholz of throwing a spitter — former pitcher Dirk Hayhurst, also with the Blue Jays radio team, joined in — it’s hard to imagine these accusations going anywhere.

However, Morris and Hayhurst give us an opportunity to revisit the spitball, in my opinion one of the most unique pieces of baseball history, from its time as a legal pitch in baseball’s early years to Gaylord Perry’s Hall of Fame spitball and everywhere in between.

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