Mike Newman Prospects Chat – 5/3/13

: Hello all, welcome to today’s chat. As I prepare a plate of delicious take-out Chinese food before we begin, please take a minute to check out my newsletter project at http://ROTOscouting.com.

Comment From e
Worried about Hultzen’s should? The mariners said it’s minor, but that’s how things always start. What’s your take?

: With Hultzen’s awkward mechanics, there’s quite a bit of, “I told you so” speculation happening right now. When I saw Hultzen last season, his mechanics were more across his body than during a pre-draft look. Unfortunately, he was so efficient in a spring training start (3 IP, 30 pitches), that I didn’t have a chance to follow up in Arizona. Not much more to do other than wait and see at this point. the Mariners don’t have a reputation for hiding injuries or anything.

Comment From Matt
Concerned at all about Bogaerts’ law of power thus far? The rest of his numbers seem alright, although his K rate is a tad worrisome. Thoughts?

: He’s young and still developing, so I’m not worried. I’m convinced his playing for the Netherlands, combined with the cold weather April has caused him to get off to a slow start. He’s heating up with the weather and I still consider him to be a top-5 prospect in baseball entering 2014.

Comment From Fish Food
Yelich before July?

: in all honesty, your guess is as good as mine right now. Marcell Ozuna is a good prospect, but I would have never expected him to be called up so fast. At this point, I have no idea what the Marlins have planned next.

Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety)
If Gausman were to earn a promotion around July after super-2 deadline as has been speculated what would you expect out of him? The K/BB ratio has been impeccable but he’s been hittable so far

: He’s likely to walk more batters at the MLB level, obviously. He’s also giving up more hits than innings pitched. The potential is there for him to limit damage initially and sustain, but I wouldn’t expect him to come right up and dominate or anything.

Comment From Snuggles
Will you be getting a chance to see Jake Cave this season, if so, approximately when?

: Yes, later this month. Charleston comes to Rome. I’ll keep an eye out for you.

Comment From e
Concerned about zunino’s strikeout rate? normal growing pains adjusting to a massive amount of breaking balls or is he going to be a batting average debilitating high strikeout guy?

: If you read what I’ve written about him previously, I’ve always had a slight concern at his propensity to swing through fastballs. My video of him has him cleanly swinging through at least half a dozen. Then, I saw him do the same in the Arizona Fall League. It’s definitely an area for him to work on.

Comment From JEB
Chicken Lo-Mein? mmmmmm I love lo-mein, dammit now I’m hungry!

: No, today was a wonton and dumpling day. Fried dumplings, wonton soup and fried wontons. I’m working on my girlish figure.

Comment From Evan C.
Yesterday in his chat, Keith Law said that RHP Rafael de Paula would end a reliever, according to scouts. Have you heard this? What are you hearing yourself as de Paula?

: If De Paula is in Charleston come the end of May, I hope to scout him in person.

Comment From Kyle
All of your thoughts on Stetson Allie!

: Seriously?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/stetson-allie-pirates-press-the-reset-button/

Comment From e
boegarts looks like money now that he’s put his early season struggles behind him. his plate discipline has normalized and his power is showing up again. do you think he’ll see AAA sometime after the all star break?

: That’s generally how the BoSox do things.

Comment From Jon
Can you shed some light on how fast you think B. Buxton will get to the majors and if his great start this year in A-ball has changed your opinion of his peak potential?

: His peak potential has always bordered on insanity. The question has always been when/if he’ll get there. Needless to say he’s far ahead of the curve right now. My latest piece going up later today (I hope) is a look at the top-5 prospects in baseball as of today. Buxton IS in the top-5.

Comment From Kyle
Is Kevin Plawecki overperforming? Will he get figured out at higher levels?

: You are messing with me. Right, Kyle?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/plawecki-working-to-prove-doubters-wrong/

Comment From crw
Do you think a reliever role is a good place for Carlos Martinez to first see big league pitching, or will this hamper his development as a future top of the rotation starter (that most think he can be)?

: Yes. For as many people who think he’s a future impact starter, there are those who believe he’ll be a high leverage reliever in the end.

Comment From CK
Assuming they let McCann walk, does Christian Bethancourt still figure to be Atlanta’s catcher of the future, given the emergence of Gattis’ bat. Bethancourt is a bit banged up right now and hasn’t played in 2 weeks, but has started 2013 off well, offensively, which was always a concern.

: It might be a great idea for the Braves to keep McCann for another year (if possible) and wait and see for another year. I would not be prepared to make that decision now, or in the winter if I were the Braves.

Comment From Milhouse
On a guy like Walding, how much time are you expecting to elapse before you see him take a leap in development? He’s obviously still very young.

: I expected it to already happen. He has been a disappointment, but age appropriate and producing at above the league average is not chopped liver.

Comment From Cameroon Diego
General Tao’s chicken vs Sesame beef? Who has more upside?

: I’ll take Hunan.

Comment From e
what do you make of profar’s AAA struggles? his plate discipline still looks excellent, but he’s not really hitting. legit concern or just a slow start?

: Slow start. Not a biggy.

Comment From Duhh
I have one spot open in my 10 team roto keeper.C.Martinez(Cards) or Graussman(orioles)?

: Give me Gausman.

Comment From Louis
What is Gallo’s ceiling? I assume his floor is non-existent at this point. Additionally, would you rank the Crawdads as one of the more exciting teams you could go see with the likes of Gallo, Brinson, Alfaro, etc?

: They come to Rome for a four-game set at the end of May. I’ll scout them then and see if I can do a few interviews as well. Hickory is a MUST SEE team for me every year. This roster alone will keep me writing for a month.

Comment From RyanW
Do you see 25+ hrs from Profar in the future? His hands are explosive…..is he a .380 OBP or a future .400OBP?

: I can see him pushing .300/.400 with 20 HR and 20 SB.

Comment From Ian
Any thoughts on how much longer Buxton should stay in low A? He’s killing that league.

: Some organizations consider 200 dominant plate appearances at a level reason for promotion. Buxton is halfway there. However, the Twins move their top guys pretty slowly. Expect him to have plenty of time to develop before pushing. If you check my Allie piece, A-GM Kyle Stark made a great point about the importance of building a foundation at the lower levels.

Comment From Trey
Have you seen or written anything up on Anthony Gose since 2009? Thoughts?

: I’ve only seen him on TV and spoken to contacts. Not much has changed really. The speed and defensive chops are elite, but the bat remains in question. Same stuff, different year.

Comment From RyanW
Archie Bradley…looks like he has figured out his control….are we looking at Jose Fernandez type ceiling?

: Last year, I had a scout see Bradley at the same time I saw Bundy. We compared notes and he could not believe a scenario where Bundy could be better. I’ll see Bradley’s next start in Chattanooga and I’m stoked.

Comment From Mike
How good is Lindor’s defense? Iglesias-good?

: Iglesias and Lindor are the two best. I’d prefer Lindor overall because of the bat even if his defense is a hair below the Red Sox product.

Comment From Joseph
With Mike Foltynewicz’s promotion to AA in mind, if he were to finish the year in AAA, where would be among the game’s top pitching prospects?

: Take it with a grain of salt. The Astros have been known to skip guys, or keep guys at their High-A affiliate for very little time. The place is a pitcher’s nightmare. Don’t get too excited.

Comment From Larry
Are you still a huge fan of Roman Quinn? Is he hitting enough?

: He has been a let down so far, but we forget he was a 17-year old draft pick. he’ll only be 20 this month. Still plenty of time for him to develop. I’ll give him a mulligan for now based on his elite athleticism.

Comment From byron from austin
yelich or zunino? for production this year.

: I’ll take Zunino because of opportunity and positional value. Let’s not get too excited though. Rookies rarely make a real impact on a fantasy roster.

Comment From bill billerson
Archie Bradley: time to get excited or do we still need to see some more consistency with control?

: You should have always been excited. Now, it’s OK to be even more excited.

Comment From Lenny
Is Cole still a great prospect or are his recent struggles at Triple A troubling since the Pirates wanted him up in June?

: He’s still a top prospect.

Comment From James
who’s your front-runner for the first overall pick in dynasty leagues? don’t say a pitcher!

: I’m not a big draft guy, but you obviously haven’t read enough of these chats if you thought I’d ever recommend taking a pitcher first.

Comment From Izzy
Top 5 2014 prospects: Sano, Buxton, Bogartes, Lindor, Bundy?

: I just finished a piece with my projected top-5. It will be something I update each month throughout the season. Look for it at FanGraphs.

Comment From Dionysus
Ranuado: too early to say or is he forcing himself back on some prospect lists?

: He’s forcing his way up Red Sox lists. If you twisted my arm and told me to suffer through writing a top-100, my gut says he’d be borderline.

Comment From Mark
Do you expect either Taveras or Myers to reach All-Star status by as soon as 2015?

: Taveras could do it. I’m still worried about Myers and his contact ability.

Comment From Kris
Does Castro move off SS or does Baez move to 2B or 3B?

: Their best defense might wind up being Baez at 3B, Alcantara at SS and Castro at 2B by 2015.

Comment From Kevin
Nick Franklin seems to have made progress based on his minor league swing% and contact%. Do you think it’s for real since this is only his first month in AAA, or more of a SSS thing? If real progress, when do you think he gets called up with the terrible nature of the Mariners middle infield?

: I like Franklin as a guy who could eventually hit .275 with 15-18 HR. However, i don’t think he’s a SS. 2B is much more likely. With that said, I don’t think the Mariners can pull the plug on Ackley. If they do, his value is destroyed.

Comment From Milhouse
Do you prefer answering questions about deep guys (Jake Cave? Never heard of him) or top 50 guys?

: I prefer questions about players I’ve seen, deep or not. If asked about some guy ripping up the CAL, my insight isn’t much better than if you did a Google search yourself.

Comment From Dustin
If I want to catch Buxton in Cedar Rapids, how long do I have? A trip to Ft Myers isn’t the worst idea, but Cedar Rapids is a 4 hour drive.

: I’d say you have until the All-Star break — at least.

Comment From Cameroon Diego
Why is it so hard to get a question answered on here?

: Two things, if you are asking questions about guys I haven’t seen, and I have nothing to add to the conversation, I keep going. Second, I receive approx. 300 questions in 90-minutes. I can’t possibly answer them all. It’s why I created a message board at ROTOscouting.com and have a comments section under the post in FanGraphs.

In your specific case, Asking for a Taijuan Walker comp in a rapid fire chat isn’t possible. I just can’t pull the info together that fast. Surprisingly, I’ve never really had Siracha, and I’ve only seen Puig, so I have no ability to compare the two prospects.

Comment From Kevin
Cameroon Diego- It’s only hard to get quesions answered if you have bad questions.

: That too!

Comment From Jeremy
If Allen Webster can harness his control, does he have ace potential?

: Not an ace, but his ceiling has moved higher. The potential is there for him to develop into a quality #2.

Comment From byron from austin
i like milhouse’s question.

: It was a good question. As my audience has grown, the scope of questions has grown too. In all honesty, nobody can cover prospects from coast-to-coast and see everybody. All prospect guys will have their sweet spots. My sweet spot is still the Southern League and South Atlantic League even though I’m now making it to Arizona and other places.

Comment From RyanW
worried about trevor story?

: No, I won’t start paying attention until the All-Star break. When I scouted Story on multiple occasions, I saw a great prospect. 100 PA’s and some K’s aren’t going to sway me.

Comment From Steve
Which are more telling at this point in the season: prospects’ stats or big leaguers’ stats? Or roughly the same?

: Big leaguers. Prospect stats are always bordering in silly. Many more variables.

Comment From Wyatt
What do you think of the Rangers high A pitching prospects, Jackson, Payano, and Eickhoff? How would you rank them?

: I saw Eickhoff and Payano late last year and was a little “meh” on them. Jackson was due to pitch the day my wife was due to give birth to our third child. Do I need to say who won that battle?

Comment From Bart
What do you expect from Arenado this season as far as production?

: I just wrote about this for my newsletter actually. Below is a link to the excerpt. I worked through his path to a productive 2013.

http://us6.campaign-archive2.com/?u=1b1dbdc646714eba0ffb4dde2&id=3b6aacc7fb

Comment From Too Many Joes
Nick Castellanos is walking more and striking out less in AAA than he did in AA last year. Can we say that he’s put his half-year struggles in AA and AFL behind him?

: Toledo comes to Gwinnett in a couple of weeks. If I can get Castellanos/Crosby, I’ll make the drive over and see for myself.

Comment From Trey
Have you seen Guerreri since you wrote him up in 2012 for Fangraphs? If so, was a second look any different than what you saw the first time that contrasted Sussman’s scouting report?

: A buddy, Chris Blessing, who writes for Bullpen Banter just saw Guerrieri last weekend. He started out as the same guy I saw, but finished the game in the upper-80’s. I’m sure he’ll write it up if he hasn’t already.

Comment From DBacks Fan
So what’s the deal with Skaggs? He is clearly serviceable, but will he ever be a star?

: No, probably not.

Comment From Chris
From a fantasy perspective do you shy away from pitchers with poor throwing motions? It’s getting frustrating when a guy like Bundy who has a fluid motion and a great workout regimen hurts his elbow and a guy like Chris Sale keeps churning along. I saw a photo of Wheeler’s throwing motion the other day and it did not look pretty. At what point do I ignore throwing motion and just realize they’re all risks.

: I like your last sentence. Eventually, pitchers get hurt. I’d much prefer and elbow to shoulder. I don’t worry too much about mechanics, but do look for efficiency and effort in a delivery. I’m no biomechanics expert and don’t try to be. To be honest, many who label themselves as experts simply aren’t.

Comment From Guest
Are you worried about Taijuan Walker?

: Why? He’s awesome.

Comment From zack
Is Billy Hamilton turning into the next Dee Gordon?

: Funny you mentioned that. I sat with a veteran scout last year who saw both in Double-A and thought Gordon had a better bat.

Comment From Trent
Do you think Matt Wisler is a sneaky up & coming prospect? I like his frame & repertoire personally. Have you or contacts seen him up close recently?

: Yes. I saw him in spring training and wrote him up at FG. I liked him quite a bit, and so does everybody else.

Comment From John
Curious about your opinion of Kyle (HokaHey) Stark. Is he more competent than the local press would have us believe?

: I spoke with him for 40-minutes and came away impressed. Their system and team is as strong as it has been in many years. I don’t understand what the griping is about.

Comment From Chuck (Chino)
Story has K’d 40 times in 100PA’s, still on his bandwagon?

: Yes, I’ll happily take him in every dynasty league for pennies on the dollar right now.

Comment From CK
Heard a lot of chatter of Nick Franklin coming up to help Seattle’s offensive woes. Where does Stefen Romero (.311/.354/.511 in AAA, SEA 2012 minor league player of the year) fit into the equation??

: Romero will receive a shot, but I see him as more of a guy who plays 4 times a week and shifts around. I don’t see Romero as a 2B.

Comment From John
Have you seen WV yet? Is there concern about the swing and miss in Josh Bell’s game. Also, is Eric Wood a decent prospect?

: I have seen WV. Bell is an unbridled hitter right now who needs to calm his approach. Wood is kind of blah.

Comment From James
Is Trevor Bauer ever going to be a legitimate starting option in the bigs? His stuff seems to have taken a hit and he can’t throw strikes.

: Yes, but he’s more of a guy who will max out as a #3.

Comment From Rick
Did you ever scout Didi G? He’s much bigger and leaner than I expected – but can he hit enough?

: Yes, and I thought the same. My gut tells me it’s the stat hounds driving the, “Didi can’t hit” chatter.

Comment From Steve
Sox farm system having a really nice year thus far. Whose starts should I be excited about: Cecchini, Workman, Ranaudo, Hazelbaker, Webster, Almanzar, Coyle, Mererro, Owens?

: I’d be most excited about Webster/Owens. Having seen all in person except Ranaudo, they had the best combination of talent and ceiling.

Comment From Innerlewd
Great call on picking Rosell Herrera as a breakout candidate .364/.434/.606 with 6HR looking like the guy they signed with a franchise record bonus

: Thanks, but it was not nearly as great a call when I did the same in 2012 before he bombed out of full season baseball.

Comment From Doctor Met
No longer a “real” rookie but what do you see from Segura ROS? In fantasy what kind of player in return would you expect if you wanted to trade him (dynasty league)? TIA!

: When I wrote up Segura last season, I saw a player with the potential to push .300 with 12-15 HR and 30 SB. Right now, I’m happy that’s posted somewhere.

Comment From James from Dallas
Has Cody Buckel experienced the most precipitous drop in prospect status in 9 innings in history? And rank the Rangers top SP prospects.

: No, Ankiel takes that title, and will probably never be beaten. However, Buckel’s loss of command/control is shocking. If I took all of the possible outcomes after watching him in person, this result never even crossed my mind.

Comment From Phil
Will the Mets still be calling Wheeler up in June despite his initial struggles?

: I’d like to see him called up soon. Vegas is a horrible place for top pitching prospects. It’s why the Blue Jays frequently pushed their top guys from Double-A to MLB.

Comment From Patrick
Any hope for Dorssssys Paulino, or is he this years Cheslor Cuthbert?

: Paulino has an excellent bat. If you can get him in a deep dynasty league, do it now.

Comment From Rhymenosaurus
P.S. Stolmy Pimentel is a great name

: Stolmy is a great name. I saw him in 2009 and thought he was nearly as good as Casey Kelly. Then, his production eroded. I’m not sure why that happens, but he had the stuff of a quality starter initially.

Comment From Innerlewd
Tom Murphy had a very nice debut last year(129wRC+) and is obliterating the Sally thoughts?

: I hope he’s still in Asheville later this month. Herrera and Murphy had days off when I went to Asheville to see West Virginia.

Comment From Adam
Are you ever cable to catch the Red Sox Salem affiliate? If so, what are your thoughts on Cecchini, Owens, and Coyle?

: To be honest, I don’t because I see them all in Greenville many times. All three are players I’ve written about at length on FanGraphs in the past.

Comment From dirck
Further to my scouts veracity question ,certain teams like the Yankess have consistently hyped the value of their prospects before trading them away . How do they do this ,is it done by scouts or someone else ,and if not scouts ,whom ?

: A number of teams are quite skilled at this. I’m not sure it’s done with devious intent, but major prospect outlets do often run with information from managers and scouts for teams the players are on. For example, would a Rangers minor league manager or scout ever go on record with negative information about Profar? Not if they want to keep a job.

Comment From JK
Any updates on Tommy Joseph? He’s off to a pretty slow start this year.

: I’ve never been much of a fan.

Comment From Fleer
Has Alex Wood done enough this season to reach the status of Braves’ top pitching prospect?

: No, but Wood is a guy I wish I had written more about. His scouting notes were on my IPhone and I kept forgetting to write him up at FanGraphs. I liked him quite a bit.

Comment From PaulM
Who has more upside Zunino or Hedges?

: I’ll take Zunino.

Comment From dirck
Of the currently disappointing looking prospects do you prefer Paulino or Story ?

: Please give me both for pennies on the dollar. if I had to choose one, then it’s story because I’m confident he sticks at SS. Paulino is more of a 2B in the end for me.

Comment From PaulM
Any chance Spangenberg regains that momentum from his first season as a pro? Or is he just a middling prospect?

: Not a big fan. I understand why the Padres would take him so high, but there’s no explosion to pair with the speed. For me, elite athletes need both.

Comment From Marcus A.
What tool would you say you overrate and have to adjust for? I know plenty of people overreact to velo or power, what’s yours?

: I don’t know if I overrate anything, but I have a tendency to not like big, hulking corner guys like Matt Davidson or Paul Goldschmidt. Sometimes, I have to will myself to like a guy more after missteps in the past.

Comment From Cameroon Diego
Your a fair arbiter of the chat and your reason flows like milk from the mothers breast!

: Compliment or creepy? You decide.

Comment From Bud
Thoughts on Melky Mesa? Fantasy relevant at some point?

: No, not for me. He K’s too much and is pretty old at this point. Mesa sure does look good in a uniform though. It’s difficult to not be excited about perceived potential.

Comment From dirck
Does Rubby make the Bosox rotation this year ? If so ,what should we expect ?

: I hope to see him in person next week. So far, the command hasn’t really come back. I’ve said this before, but I only worry about TJ guys when their control isn’t great to begin with. Rubby qualifies as one of those guys. However, I still like him long term.

Comment From Ned Colletti
When is Scott Van Slyke going to get a chance from any team? He’s tearing up the PCL

: No, he’s a good org. guy.

: 3-minute warning……

Comment From Steve
What level of offensive production would you need to expect from Iglesias to make him the everyday SS for the Sox?

: I have no idea why he’s not playing SS and hitting 9th for the Red Sox right now. I wouldn’t have signed Drew in their position.

Comment From RyanW
Is Bryce Harper surprising you this year? 40 bombs at his age…..Is this Mickey Mantle?

: No, he’s awesome. He and Stanton are the two most impressive prospects I’ve seen in person from an offensive standpoint.

Comment From Mike
This bogaerts is not doing well stuff is all over now. .309 ba. .820+ ops. Think if/when Drew gets injured, and Sox are still competitive, they bring him up? Feels like we’re looking at hanley ramirez part two perhaps right?

: Hanley was a crazy good athlete who stole bunches of bases. I don’t understand his being compared to Bogaerts.

Comment From Bill
What do you see from Puig in MLB? .300/.350/.550?

: I don’t see him as a .300 hitter, but I didn’t see Cespedes as one either. If Puig can learn to handle low and outside breaking stuff, the sky is the limit.

: Alright all, this has been fun. I have some things to do before heading to Rome for Brian Johnson vs. Maurico Cabrera. Let’s do this again next week! Don’t forget to check out my newsletter at ROTOscouting.com and keep reading at FanGraphs!