With several FanGraphs authors descending on Boston for the 2013 Saber Seminar, we’ve decided to put together a meet up. On Friday night, August 16th, we will be gathering at The Mead Hall in Cambridge beginning at 7 pm. The Mead Hall has over 100 beers on tap, and we’ll hang out in their upstairs area and watch the first game of the Red Sox/Yankees series.

Among the FanGraphs crew in attendance:

David Appelman
Dave Cameron
Paul Swydan
Bill Petti
Steve Slowinski
David Laurila
Carson Cistulli

Because a lot of smart baseball folks will be in town for the weekend conference, expect a few guests — perhaps some even named Bannister, Brooks, and Pavlidis, potentially — to be there as well. If you haven’t been to a FanGraphs meet up before, it’s a great time to just watch baseball and interact with others who generally think math is okay.

We look forward to seeing you guys there.

Brett Oberholtzer’s best pitch is his changeup. Well, that’s the one that gets the Astros’ starter his whiffs and has been his signature pitch. But it might be the curveball that best describes his approach on the mound. Because the curveball is two pitches. Brett Oberholtzer has a slider.

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That his pitching coach considered limiting the number of breaking pitches he could throw in a recent outing says a lot about Jake Thompson. It isn’t because the highly-regarded Detroit Tigers pitching prospect lacks quality secondary offerings, but rather that he needs to do a better job of establishing his fastball.

Drafted in the second round last summer out of Rockwall-Heath (Texas) High School, Thompson is currently honing his skills with the Low-A West Michigan Whitecaps. The 19-year-old right-hander talked about his development — including the fine-tuning of his multi-pitch mix — prior to his Aug. 9 start against the Lansing Lugnuts. Also weighing in was his pitching coach, former Detroit closer Mike Henneman. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam (mostly) celebrate the impending arrival of a new replay review system.

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You saw this post’s headline before you read this sentence. The headline’s a question, so you probably answered it. I’m guessing your answer is, “probably not, no.” Or maybe it’s, “well we have no way of possibly knowing.” Or maybe it’s both. And that’s perfectly fair — we don’t have any way of possibly knowing for sure, and there was a lot of baseball before 2013 Andrelton Simmons. But if you’re reading this post anyway, it means you’re curious. And curiosity requires an open mind. You’re willing to consider the possibility that Simmons is having the best defensive season ever, and that might say enough on its own.

The other day, Jose Iglesias did something amazing, and I wrote about it. I don’t think it’s the greatest defensive play by a shortstop I’ve ever seen, but a full write-up felt appropriate, given Iglesias’ reputation and given his importance to a contending Tigers team with the rest of the Tigers’ defensive infield. Eventually, it had to be noted that no matter how good we think Iglesias might be, there’s already an Andrelton Simmons. Iglesias, this year, has been a good shortstop for 318 innings. Simmons has been a good shortstop for more than a thousand. Iglesias is going to be hard-pressed to emerge as the best defensive shortstop in baseball, because Simmons pushes sensibility to the extremes, and with his 2013 in particular, we have to wonder: how does this stack up? Where does this season fit in all-time?

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On Wednesday, Jerry Crasnick posted a column at ESPN arguing that Carlos Beltran is worthy of the Hall of Fame. I wholeheartedly agree. But he has ample company in his era. How many of his peers are worthy of Cooperstown, and how many of them will make it?

Among players who have played the bulk of their careers since 1980, exactly 12 center fielders have amassed at least 44 WAR. Three of them are already in the Hall of Fame: Kirby Puckett, Andre Dawson, and Robin Yount (whom I’ll consider a centerfielder for my purposes). Here are the other nine:

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Major League Baseball is looking to expand its instant-replay review system in time for the 2014 regular season. This much has been known for a while, and it’s been discussed and debated several times over. I don’t know if there’s anyone out there who still has a fresh and original take on the matter of replay review. Opinions have been established. Minds have been made up. Now, though, we do get some details about a plan proposal. There’s been a meeting in Cooperstown, and I’ll allow Ken Rosenthal to take it away:

Baseball owners are considering a proposal under which managers would initiate replay reviews.
[…]
Under the proposed rules, managers will be allowed two challenges over the first six innings of games and one after the seventh inning. Calls that are challenged will be reviewed by a crew in MLB headquarters in New York City, which will make the final ruling.

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Do you want to see footage of Miguel Cabrera hitting a home run? Of course you do. You’re not a monster. Now let me  find the last time he — oh,  right, he hit a homer yesterday. Went yard off John Danks. Sixth time he’s homered in eight games, with two of those coming off Mariano Rivera. Neat little stretch. Here’s the Danks pitch Cabrera got rid of:

I know it’s kind of blurry, and I included a vertical red line for reference. Let’s watch this loop:

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per Steamer
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per Steamer
In May, the author examined those hitters and pitchers whose projections had most improved, up till that point, according to the Steamer and ZiPS systems. This week, in the Notes, we’re revisiting that effort.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, we looked at the most improved hitters according to Steamer and ZiPS, respectively. Below are the most improved pitchers according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest decrease in projected ERA.”

Note: pitchers who (a) are projected to make starts in fewer than 50% of their remaining appearances or (b) are absent currently from a major-league roster have been omitted from consideration.

5. John Lackey, RHP, Boston
Steamer (Pre): 143.0 IP, 5.89 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.42 ERA
Steamer (RoS): 43.0 IP, 7.47 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9, 3.77 ERA
Notes: Lackey’s present strikeout rate of 22.2% is the highest such figure he’s recorded since 2005, when he posted a 22.3% mark. His current 81 xFIP- would be the lowest of his career by that measure.

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