Episode 371
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses baseball’s waiver system (generally) and the Adam Rosales situation (specifically).

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 36 min play time.)

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When Adrian Beltre put up one of the best seasons in the history of baseball in 2004, it was labeled many things: an historic fluke, evidence of steroid usage, and/or the greatest example in history of a player trying to cash in on a big contract in his walk year. He went from hitting 23 home runs in 2003 to 48 in 2004, and posted a higher WAR in that one year than he had in the prior three seasons combined.

The narrative just got louder when he went to Seattle and regressed back to his prior levels in his first year under the new contract. It was called a fluke to end all flukes, or it was proof that Beltre just started juicing in order to land a huge paycheck, and then he stopped taking PEDs after he got rich off the deal. These are the conclusions people drew. These are the conclusions people still draw, 10 years later; Just do a twitter search for Chris Davis+steroids.

Well, maybe it’s time to reevaluate those conclusions, because Adrian Beltre has done it again.

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In 2003, the city of Boston wasn’t exactly desperate for the winter, but they were longing for one. Yes, the Patriots had won at 2002’s outset, but Boston has never been a Patriots town, and when they followed that up with a 9-7 season that ended without a playoff appearance, they lost their grip on the public. The Celtics and Bruins had reliably made the playoffs, but even though the Celtics put up a good fight in 2002, neither won their respective conferences.

So the eyes of Boston turned back, as they tend to do, to the Red Sox. And they were hopeful. The team had won 93 games in 2002, but that still left them six games shy of the postseason. Even under today’s new Wild Card rules they would have missed out, as the Twins finished 1.5 games ahead of them (of course, who knows what would have happened had the rules actually been different, I’m just saying there were lots of good teams that year).

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I’ve received more emails asking about Kyle Hendricks than any other prospect in recent weeks. Everyone seems to be curious about the Cubs’ right-handed pitching prospect who posted a 1.85 ERA in 21 Double-A starts. Due to popular demand, he leads off this edition of the Prospect Stock Watch.

Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Chicago Cubs: The hurler’s numbers immediately jump out: 1.85 ERA, 107 hits allowed in 126.1 innings (7.72 H/9) and just 26 walks (1.85 BB/9). The catch with Hendricks, though, is that he has a fringe-average fastball in the 87-91 mph range. He’s dominated hitters in the minors due to above-average control and command of his four-pitch repertoire (fastball, curveball, cutter, changeup).

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
In May, the author examined those hitters and pitchers whose projections had most improved, up till that point, according to the Steamer and ZiPS systems. This week, in the Notes, we’ll revisit that effort.

In this edition: the league’s most improved hitters, according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest increase in wOBA projection.”*

Note: only players with both a preseason and rest-of-season projection have been considered. Other note: any player absent currently from a major-league roster has been omitted from consideration.

5. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland
Steamer (Pre): 403 PA, .250/.315/.421 (.279 BABIP), .319 wOBA, 103 wRC+
Steamer (RoS): 166 PA, .264/.336/.441 (.294 BABIP), .340 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Notes: Despite hitting quite poorly in the first half of 2012, Donaldson produced a slash-line of .290/.356/.489 (.323 BABIP) and 136 wRC+ over 194 plate appearances in the second half. The third baseman has improved slighly even upon that in 2013 and is projected to post end-of-season WAR totals of 5.8 and 5.9 by ZiPS and Steamer, respectively.

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On July 31st, in need of a roster spot for newly acquired Alberto Callaspo, the A’s designated Adam Rosales for assignment. Two days later, he was claimed on waivers by the Texas Rangers, as they were scrambling for depth with the uncertainty surrounding Nelson Cruz’s suspension and appeal situation. After a brief weekend on the Rangers roster, Texas DFA’d Rosales on August 5th, and he was re-claimed on waivers by the A’s on August 8th, since they didn’t want to lose him in the first place. However, they still didn’t really have room for him on their big league roster, and when they needed a roster spot to promote Sonny Gray to pitch on Saturday, they DFA’d Rosales once again. Yesterday, he was re-claimed on waivers by the Rangers.

In two weeks, that’s two stints with the A’s and now two with the Rangers, who aren’t guaranteeing that they’ll keep him around this time either. Both teams like the positional flexibility and depth that Rosales provides, and would like to stash him in Triple-A so that they’ll have him around in case a need arises, but because Rosales is out of options, the only way to get him to Triple-A is to pass him through waivers. And Rosales is just good enough to tempt teams into claiming him so that they can then try and pass him through waivers themselves, while not being quite good enough for teams to commit to carrying him for longer periods of time.

Maybe this doesn’t all seem like a big deal, given that Adam Rosales has been getting paid the entire time, and is still on a big league roster. From that perspective, the system is working just fine, giving a Major League opportunity to a guy on the fringes of the talent pool. However, Rosales is a human being, and the practical implications of the DFA merry-go-round mean that he’s spent the last few weeks separated from his family and his belongings. There has to be a better way than this.

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I’m a big fan of games that summarize entire skillsets. To pick one example, on May 25, 2012, Adam Dunn DH’d and went 1-for-4 with a homer, a walk, and three strikeouts. To pick another example, on July 16, 2004, Wily Mo Pena went 1-for-4 with a homer, no walks, and three strikeouts. I like a game in which a player puts everything about himself on display, and Jose Iglesias had just such a game Monday night. Against the White Sox, Iglesias made two easy outs. In his third at-bat, he picked up an infield single. And though the White Sox emerged victorious by four, the game was of little consequence to either team; what most people are talking about is what Iglesias did to Josh Phegley in the bottom of the sixth.

It wasn’t anything mean, except that it kind of was. The Gameday play-by-play offers, understatedly:

Josh Phegley grounds out softly, shortstop Jose Iglesias to first baseman Prince Fielder. Jordan Danks to 2nd.

That doesn’t exactly do the play justice. Iglesias drew oohs and ahhs from the other team’s audience, and Phegley didn’t think to stage a protest. The out recorded, Iglesias got back on his feet and returned to his position. Ever the professional, at no point did Iglesias crack a smile. Most of the observers were simply too stunned. At the plate Monday night, Jose Iglesias was quiet. In the field Monday night, Jose Iglesias was an afterburner.

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The author attended a Double-A Eastern League game on Sunday between the Richmond Flying Squirrels (a San Francisco affiliate) and New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Toronto) in Manchester, NH (box). What follows is a brief examination of two Giants prospects from same.

Adam Duvall, 3B

The author had no intention of more closely examining — had, in fact, scarcely heard of — third-base prospect Adam Duvall prior to Sunday’s game. And yet, one finds his name here in bold type, suggesting that something of that sort is in the offing.

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