Archive for November, 2013

Yankees Re-Sign Derek Jeter, Lower Luxury Tax Calculation

Worth noting: Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests that pretty much everything written below is wrong.

It is certainly possible that I’ve interpreted the luxury tax calculations incorrect. The post will be updated once I have clarification.

Derek Jeter is going to stay with the Yankees, surprising absolutely no one. This was never really in doubt, especially because Jeter had the right to ensure he played 2014 in New York, thanks to a player option that was added to the end of his three-year, $51 million option on the deal he signed in 2010. He could have exercised his right to become a free agent, but heading into his age-40 season and coming off the worst year of his career, interest probably wouldn’t have been overwhelming. And it’s unlikely he wanted to end his career in any other uniform, so this was always the expected outcome.

However, the actual announcement sheds some fun light on the details of how the CBA works and how the luxury tax is calculated. The Yankees could have just let Jeter exercise his player option — listed as $8 million, but reported by Jon Heyman to actually be worth $9.5 million — but instead, they signed him to a new contract that will pay him $12 million next year instead. Why the $2.5 million to $4 million raise over what his own player option called for?

Three words: the luxury tax. The Yankees have been desperately trying to get under the $189 million threshold, and by paying Jeter more, their tax calculation is actually going to go down.

Read the rest of this entry »


2014 Free Agent Leaderboards

Thanks to the initial hard work from Steve Adams at MLB Trade Rumors, we were able to provide some custom leaderboards for free agents back in August. Well, with the postseason officially over and the hot stove season kicking off, we’re rolling out updated versions of these leaderboards, which also account for some of the transactions we’ve seen over the last few months; say goodbye to Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum, for instance.

These lists are still a bit fluid, as there are option decisions that still have to be made, so I’ve made some assumptions about which options are going to get picked up versus getting declined. Over the next few days, as players officially can put on or taken off the market, I’ll update these lists to reflect that information. Since these are manually created, there are almost certainly going to be some mistakes, so feel free and point out which players are on the list and shouldn’t be or which players are missing from the leaderboards.

Also, I’ve set the default viewing timeline as 2011 to 2013, as making a decision based on a player’s longer track record is better than simply targeting players who performed well in 2013. This also serves to list players who missed the entire 2013 season, and wouldn’t otherwise appear if the data only displayed most recent year. The great thing about the custom leaderboards, though, is that you can change all of this, and tweak it to display what you want to see.

Without further ado, the 2014 free agent custom leaderboards.

Read the rest of this entry »


The New National TV Contracts And 2014 Payrolls

Goodbye, 2013 season. Hello, Hot Stove. Stop sobbing. Really, stop. We’re going to get through this. There will be qualifying offers, declined options, over-the-top free agent signings and rumors galore. Before you know it, we’ll be complaining about beat writers’ spring training play-by-play tweets.

Today we’re going to talk about the effect of the new national TV contracts on 2014 payrolls:

  • The teams that have already built their 2014 payrolls on the revenue expected from those contracts.
  • The teams that haven’t already accounted for that revenue, and have money to play with this winter.
  • The teams that have revenues so high and payrolls so large that another $15 million means close to nothing.

Read the rest of this entry »


Finding Koji Uehara’s Worst Pitch of the Playoffs

On Oct. 1, 2011, Koji Uehara made his playoff debut and pitched in relief for the Rangers. He faced three batters, retiring none and allowing a dinger. In his next appearance in the playoffs, after ten days, he allowed a dinger. In his next appearance in the playoffs, he allowed a dinger. Uehara wouldn’t pitch again in that postseason, having completely lost Ron Washington’s trust. That is, if he ever had it. It felt like Uehara and the Rangers was never a marriage; rather, they were assigned lab partners, thinking wistfully of other lab partners. They didn’t work well together, and that’s half the reason the Rangers regret giving up Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis.

These days it’s impossible to imagine that version of Uehara ever existed. A vulnerable version, even if the extent of his vulnerability was a wee bit exaggerated. Uehara has always been good, but you might not even realize just how amazing he was with the Red Sox. He allowed a .400 OPS. His OPS allowed was almost half that down the stretch. FOX liked to show a graphic saying that Uehara had walked one batter since the All-Star break. That held true all the way through the playoffs, in which Uehara pitched 13 times, facing 46 batters, walking none, whiffing 16. In the playoffs he allowed a .413 OPS. That’s actually worse than what he allowed in the season.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Strongest (and Weakest) Rookie Classes of 2013

What a difference six months can make.

A Major League Baseball club can open the season in April with an impressive collection of players on its 25-man roster but that team’s picture will no doubt be significantly rearranged come September. Look to the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays for an example of this statement.

Prior to the season, the club was picked by many people — whose job it is to make these sorts of predictions, and make them well — as the favorites to win the American League East division. Instead, the club stumbled out of the gate and key players suffered significant injuries, while others were wildly inconsistent or down right disappointing.

Some big league organizations can easily rebound from catastrophe that was the Jays’ 2013 season. The Cardinals, for example, reached the World Series in ’13 while regularly utilizing seven rookies. The Dodgers reached the National League Championship Series despite injuries to key veterans Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp, thanks to strong contributions from June call-up Yasiel Puig and Korean import Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 320: Colin Wyers on Mathematical Modeling for the Astros and the Future of Public-Sector Sabermetrics

Ben and Sam talk to Colin Wyers about how he got hired by the Astros, working in baseball, and where sabermetrics is headed.