Ben and Sam revisit some predictions and discussions from prior episodes to see how their thoughts have changed.
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Since I write most everyday here at FanGraphs, I keep a running list of things to do that serves as a queue for future post topics. One of the things on my to-do list has been to build a custom leaderboard of all the potential trade targets as we head towards the July 31st deadline, so that you guys could easily compare and sort various players who might fit needs for the teams you root (or work) for.
Well, in a pretty happy coincidence, that was apparently also on Tim Dierkes’ to-do list, and he’s more motivated than I, so he beat me to the punch. Not that I’m complaining, as now I get to write about the custom leaderboard he made without having to do any of the work.
Note that this list is just position players, and as Dierkes noted, it is a highly subjective list of who might be available. There are probably players listed who aren’t as available as they might seem from the outside, and players not listed who will end up getting moved over the summer. Dierkes, though, definitely knows the pulse of the rumor mill, given that he runs MLB Trade Rumors, the baseball news behemoth of the internet.
For the purposes of this post, I’ve reproduced the list of top 30 players by past 365 day WAR, but you should click through to the entire leaderboard to look at the 63 names he came up with. From there, you can sort them however you’d like, including using multiple years of data, isolating positions, splits versus pitcher types, and all the other goodies you can find on the leaderboards here on FanGraphs.
You know who sucks at hitting? Pitchers. Boy, they just really suck. Pretty much always have, probably always will. Sure, every so often, a random pitcher will run into one and blast a dinger out of nowhere. But the same could be said of Munenori Kawasaki (now), and while pitchers aren’t automatic outs, they’re as close as you’re going to get to automatic outs in a regular major-league baseball game. Maybe this calls for a reminder that pitchers only suck relative to big-league position players. They’re better at hitting than us. But their numbers are always deplorable, and we don’t always have to be all fair-like. When a pitcher bats in a rally, you assume that the rally is over.
The designated hitter became a thing in 1973, following various proposals. From that point on, pitchers stopped hitting in the American League, while they continued hitting in the National League. In the previous sentence I have explained the most basic of rules. Thus, NL pitchers faced a lot of pitchers, while AL pitchers didn’t, even after the advent of interleague play. Unsurprisingly, then, since the DH came into existence, NL pitchers have posted a higher strikeout rate than AL pitchers. They’ve posted a higher strikeout rate every single season.
Last Thursday, on his 37th birthday, Carlos Lee announced his retirement. Reportedly, Mariano Rivera and Bruce Chen’s fellow Panamanian wanted to keep playing if he could get a two-year deal, but no such contract was forthcoming. That was hardly surprising given Lee’s recent offensive production; .261/.321/.410 (99 wRC+) was just not all that exciting for a first baseman, especially one in his late 30s.
While in recent years Lee may have stood out as a prime example of a bad contract for a team that should have been more serious about rebuilding at the time, Lee was a good player. I doubt anyone is going to be nominating him for the Hall of Very Good, and his defense, especially in his later years, was, shall we say, not great. But Lee was a productive hitter for most of the 2000s. He was a three-time All-Star, and, as Aaron Gleeman pointed out, despite being an consistently good power hitter in his prime, he never struck out all that much, and in the first half of his career stole a surprising number of bases. Lee also stood out from among most of his contemporaries by having a legitimately cool nickname.
Lee’s career numbers are easy enough to look up, so as we often do, let’s remember him by taking a look at his three biggest hits according to Win Probability Added (WPA).
The Tigers bullpen has been a running punchline for a while now, and if you were to identify a flaw on their team — besides corner infield defense, anyway — you’d point out their shaky ninth inning options when being asked to hold a lead. Bruce Rondon showed he wasn’t ready for the gig, then Jose Valverde tried and failed once more, so now it’s Joaquin Benoit’s chance to hold down the closer role.
However, the modern singular focus on the closer as representative of a team’s bullpen strength can be misleading, and Detroit is a prime example of why the guy getting the save doesn’t have to be your best relief pitcher. The Tigers might not have a closer, but in Drew Smyly, they have something even better: an old school relief ace.
| 12:02 |
: Let’s get this party started, slightly late!
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| 12:03 |
: I’d like to say that I was busy gallivanting around Europe like the stunning handsome playboy that I am, but in fact, I was playing with the tenor recorder I acquired last week.
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| 12:03 |
Hi Dan! Thanks for having another chat. I was just offered Wainwright for my Jose Bautista in a keeper league, straight-up. It would mean that Rizzo can join the line-up in my Utility slot, so I’m looking favorably on this offer. Snap keep or do I have room for asking for more to balance it? Thanks. |
| 12:04 |
: I’d do it, unless Bautista has positional considerations that have value to you (like 3B)
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| 12:04 |
How do you see the AL East race shaking out? |
| 12:04 |
: It’s going to be pretty close. The Blue Jays are now close enough that they’re suddnely dangerous again. I think all 5 teams have non-zero shots again, but I suspect Boston can hang on.
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Episode 353
On August 19, 1999, the author went to Fenway Park expecting to see Pedro Martinez beat the Oakland A’s handily. Instead, Martinez was outdueled by then-rookie right-hander Tim Hudson. Hudson discusses that start and other relevant matters on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 11 min play time.)
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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. SCOUT Leaderboards for Triple-A
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
SCOUT Leaderboards for Triple-A
A Brief Introduction
Featured in this edition of the Notes are the SCOUT leaderboards for Triple-A. Briefly stated, SCOUT represents an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available. Stated less briefly, is the explanation available here.
I don’t know what the top story in baseball actually is, because we don’t have a measurement for that. I guess it could be anything. What it should be, though, is the fact that the Toronto Blue Jays have won 11 consecutive games. If this were a simple 11-game winning streak, it’d be newsworthy, just because of the odds. But adding to the richness here is the identity of the team, and everything it’s been through. A team that was supposed to be good then was not good, then suddenly became impossibly good, climbing all the way back into the race. Just when people were ready to start officially writing the Blue Jays off as a bust, they picked themselves up in the fastest way possible.
The standings, now, are incredibly tight. In the American League East, five games separate first from fifth, which is also fourth. The Jays are three back in the wild card, and while there’s a point at which the gap is too large to fancy yourself a contender, the point’s a hell of a lot bigger than three. This is a team that’s been banged up, and this is a team that’s about to have the return of Jose Reyes. Unless things quickly reverse course, the Jays won’t soon be selling any pieces. They’ve erased much of their disadvantage.
Not so long ago, Tampa Bay’s Tim Beckham and Mike Montgomery (then with Kansas City) were the talk of the prospect world. Both originally acquired out of high school, Beckham, a shortstop, was the first overall selection in the 2008 amateur draft, while Montgomery, a left-handed starter, was nabbed with the 36th pick. But then a funny thing happened along the way to MLB stardom: The prospects struggled.
The Background
