| 8:57 |
: We might start this thing on time!
|
| 8:59 |
Doubt it. |
| 8:59 |
: One minute early!
|
| 8:59 |
: Hi guys!
|
| 9:00 |
are you a kluber believer? |
| 9:01 |
: As a good pitcher? Yeah, I’m there. As an ace pitcher? I’ll stay cautious, and maybe he’s pulling this year’s Kris Medlen, sort of.
|
It could have worked out so perfectly. The Yankees’ acquisition of Vernon Wells appeared to be unwise at the time, but they’d be looking to him as a backup, who needed only to fake it as a starter while Curtis Granderson was hurt. Pretty bad gamble, sure, but we’re given only one reality, and when Granderson debuted on May 14, Wells had an .875 OPS. It was up in four-digit territory through the first three weeks, and all the talk was about how Wells had found a new home, and a new life, more like his old one. Wells had done more than enough, and with Granderson healthy, he could be reduced to a role player.
Granderson got hurt again, and Wells hasn’t stopped playing. Wells has stopped hitting, even though he hasn’t stopped getting opportunities. Wells, now, owns the worst rate numbers of his career, a small step down even from what he did with the Angels. Wells didn’t just regress from his hot streak — his numbers over-corrected, such that he’s been more of a burden than a boon.
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Featured Game: New York NL at Atlanta, 19:10 ET
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Featured Game: New York NL at Atlanta, 19:10 ET
The Purpose of This Post, Predominantly
The purpose of this post predominantly is to prolong the author’s employment with FanGraphs, Inc., by another day.
“Nothing has ever come easy for me, especially the first time around,” — Oakland third baseman Josh Donaldson
Josh Donaldson played baseball for two high schools. Add to that college, two minor league sytems, and the pros, and he’s had to start over in a new place often over the course of his career. And, for the most part, he’s had a hard time at first. But with hard work and a few changes to his approach, he’s come back and been dominant. The process of acclimating, to Donaldson, is equal parts understanding himself and understanding the new situation.
Ben and Sam discuss their expectations for Zack Wheeler and other young pitchers, then talk about the true story behind the Dodgers signing Yasiel Puig.
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Episode 350
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he analyzes baseball complete-and-utterly.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 38 min play time.)
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Chris Davis has been playing out of his mind. In a different sort of way, Ike Davis was playing out of his mind, too, before getting demoted. If you already knew those things, you might not need to read the rest of this post. But things do get a little more complex.
We’re to the point, now, where a lot of players have amassed fairly significant sample sizes of regular-season data. Manny Machado, for example, has 323 plate appearances, and that makes for an awful lot of repetitions. What players have done so far should tell us something about what they’re going to do going forward. After all, the most recent past is the most important. But we also can’t yet discard the less recent past. This is the whole point behind rest-of-season projections, and we’ve got two of them right here in ZiPS and Steamer.
With two outs in the top of the sixth inning in a tied game and runner on second, a manager elects to intentionally walk a right-handed batter with his right-handed starter in order to have that same starter face another right-handed batter. Two singles follow, putting the manager’s team down by two, leading the team to defeat. An intentional walk leading to bad things for the pitching team is hardly a novelty or surprise, but the characters involved make it a bit more interesting.
This happened yesterday. The manager was the Rays’ Joe Maddon, and the batter was the Royals’ Jeff Francoeur. Jeff Francoeur’s game (and lack thereof) has been dissected and discussed to the point of pointlessness. I have made plenty of contributions to the field, so there is no need to belabor that point. Joe Maddon has a pretty good reputation as a manager, but analyzing any manager’s abilities as a whole is difficult for a variety of reasons. This particular sequence struck me as odd, particularly given the Rays’ reputation for trying to gain every little advantage they can.
Now that the draft is behind us and we’re only six weeks away from the trade deadline, we’re officially in rumor season. This time of year, we’ll be treated to an almost daily look at which teams might be buying or selling and what players could be changing uniforms before the end of July. The Phillies are probably the most interesting potential seller, because their roster is littered with big name players who would draw headlines if traded. Ruben Amaro has been clear that he does not intend to “blow up” the roster, but that doesn’t rule out making any trades at all, as he even noted that he didn’t think the Red Sox “blew up” their roster last year when they traded three of their most expensive players in one deal.
So, assuming the Phillies fall far enough back in the race to convince Amaro to be a seller, Jonathan Papelbon is probably going to be one of the most talked about trade targets of the summer. Contenders are always looking for bullpen help, and certain contenders — yes, Detroit, we’re talking about you — have glaring holes at the back end of their bullpen that could use a significant upgrade. Papelbon is still a terrific reliever, and his postseason track record will appeal to teams who put a lot of stock in experience in the ninth inning role.
However, I have a suggestion for any team that is considering giving up talent and taking on a good sized chunk of the roughly $34 million left on Papelbon’s deal; trade for Jesse Crain instead.
Ben and Sam discuss what Mariano Rivera’s retirement might cost us, then talk about whether it’s possible to evaluate scouts statistically.
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