2014 Top 100 Prospects by Marc Hulet February 11, 2014 This year’s Top 100 Prospects list comes with a warning: This might be the thinest compilation of the top 100 players, in terms of future ceilings, since I’ve been writing about prospects (approximately 10 years). Most teams are now more willing to save money by entrusting starting roles to rookies, rather than overpay for modest performances from established and overpaid (replacement level or worse) veterans. Although I don’t have specific numbers to back up the following comment, it seems as thought clubs, for the most part, are also more willing to aggressively push their top prospects (especially pitchers) through their systems — with players such as Jose Fernandez, Michael Wacha, Archie Bradley and Robert Stephenson as recent examples. In the case of the pitchers, it could be a matter of front offices wanting to ensure the players’ most effective seasons occur at the big league level during cost-controlled years while also ensuring the club can closely monitor their investments in an effort to mitigate injuries. It’s also possible that more of the top pitching talents are rising through the minors with premium velocity, which allows them to better hold their own as inexpensive, replacement-level talents (ie. No. 4/5 starters), or better, while working on their secondary offerings and command/control at the big league level. Click on the players’ names to see their player pages and full stats breakdown.The Top 10 1. Byron Buxton, OF, Twins: Buxton combines plus athleticism, tools and projection with outstanding results at a young age to earn the distinction as the top prospect in all of baseball. 2. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox: Bogaerts gave baseball fans a glimpse of what makes him so special when he earned a promotion to the big leagues late last year at the age of 20. He also posted an OPS just short of .900 with a 18% walk rate in the playoffs. 3. Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals: An ankle injury was probably the only thing that kept Taveras from graduating from the top prospects list in 2013. If the Cardinals can find a spot for him in 2014 then he could be an impact contributor from the get-go. 4. Javier Baez, SS, Cubs: Baez’s defense is surrounded by question marks — as is his ability to make consistent contact — but you can’t find many players that consistently produce the kind of power that Baez does… Plus, he performed exceptionally well in Double-A considering his age and limited professional experience. 5. Archie Bradley, RHP, Diamondbacks: Bradley edges Walker for the best pitching prospect in baseball because he’s a little bit safe and, frankly, I’m more fond of his delivery. Bradley, at the age of 21, could probably hold his own in The Snakes’ rotation right now. 6. Kris Bryant, 3B, Cubs: If Baez can somehow stick at shortstop, the Cubs could have unreal power output from the left side of the infield beginning in about a year’s time. Bryant could (and perhaps should) have been the top pick in the 2013 amateur draft. 7. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Mariners: Walker could break camp with the Mariners in 2014 and should form a dominating 1-2 punch with current ace Felix Hernandez — although the rookie may face some ups and downs in his freshman campaign. 8. Addison Russell, SS, Athletics: Russell has a chance to develop into a threat on both sides of the ball. In his prime, he could be capable of producing a few 20-20 seasons. He performed well in the Arizona Fall League at the age of 19. 9. Carlos Correa, SS, Astros: Speaking of teenagers, Correa produced an .872 OPS in Low-A ball in 2013 — as an 18 year old. The former first overall selection in the 2012 draft has an advanced (and mature) approach that belies his age. 10. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins: If anyone can claim to have more power than Baez, it might be Sano. The biggest concern with the Twins prospect is his elbow — which some fear might eventually require Tommy John surgery. Rounding Out the Top 25 11. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds 12. Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians 13. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Nationals 14. George Springer, OF, Astros 15. Eddie Butler, RHP, Rockies 16. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Rockies 17. Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates 18. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Mets 19. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles 20. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates 21. Albert Almora, OF, Cubs 22. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Blue Jays 23. Alex Meyer, RHP, Twins 24. Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Royals 25. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Orioles 26-50 26. Mark Appel, RHP, Astros 27. Maikel Franco, 3B/1B, Phillies 28. Corey Seager, 2B, Dodgers 29. Kyle Crick, RHP, Giants 30. Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers 31. Andrew Heaney, LHP, Marlins 32. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Twins 33. Yordano Ventura, RHP, Royals 34. Austin Hedges, C, Padres 35. Jackie Bradley, OF, Red Sox 36. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Orioles 37. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers 38. David Dahl, OF, Rockies 39. Travis d’Arnaud, C, Mets 40. Jesse Biddle, LHP, Phillies 41. Matt Wiser, RHP, Padres 42. Braden Shipley, RHP, Diamondbacks 43. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pirates 44. Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees 45. Clint Frazier, OF, Indians 46. Raul Mondesi, SS, Royals 47. A.J. Cole, RHP, Nationals 48. Austin Meadows, OF, Pirates 49. Jorge Soler, OF, Cubs 50. J.P. Crawford, SS, Phillies 51-75 51. Garin Cecchini, 3B, Red Sox 52. Arismendy Alcantara, SS/2B, Cubs 53. Lucas Sims, RHP, Braves 54. Jorge Alfaro, C, Rangers 55. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Astros 56. Marcus Stroman, RHP, Blue Jays 57. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Astros 58. Joc Pederson, OF, Dodgers 59. Mookie Betts, 2B, Red Sox 60. Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds 61. Max Fried, LHP, Padres 62. Matt Davidson, 3B, White Sox 63. Justin Nicolino, LHP, Marlins 64. Chris Owings, SS, Diamondbacks 65. Colin Moran, 3B, Marlins 66. Blake Swihart, C, Red Sox 67. Vincent Velasquez, RHP, Astros 68. Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Orioles 69. Jake Marisnick, OF, Marlins 70. D.J. Peterson, 1B, Mariners 71. Zach Lee, RHP, Dodgers 72. Henry Owens, LHP, Red Sox 73. Julio Urias, LHP, Dodgers 74. Alen Hanson, SS, Pirates 75. Nick Kingham, RHP, Pirates 76-100 76. Eddie Rosario, 2B/OF, Twins 77. Pierce Johnson, RHP, Cubs 78. C.J. Edwards, RHP, Cubs 79. Dominic Smith, 1B, Mets 80. Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals 81. Phillip Ervin, OF, Reds 82. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Orioles 83. Jorge Bonifacio, OF, Royals 84. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Rays 85. Christian Bethancourt, C, Braves 86. Alex Colome, RHP, Rays 87. Stephen Piscotty, OF, Cardinals 88. Enny Romero, LHP, Rays 89. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Rays 90. Reese McGuire, C, Pirates 91. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Brewers 92. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Rays 93. Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins 94. Rafael Montero, RHP, Mets 95. Miguel Almonte, RHP, Royals 96. Brian Goodwin, OF, Nationals 97. Luis Sardinas, SS, Rangers 98. Matt Barnes, RHP, Red Sox 99. Erik Johnson, RHP, White Sox 100. Mitch Nay, 3B, Blue Jays The Breakdown Catchers Austin Hedges, Padres Travis d’Arnaud, Mets Gary Sanchez, Yankees Jorge Alfaro, Rangers Blake Swihart, Red Sox Christian Bethancourt, Braves Reese McGuire, Pirates Notes: The Mets’ d’Arnaud is the only catcher on the list that figures to receive significant playing time at the big league level in 2014. With that said, if the Padres’ incumbent catcher, Yasmani Grandal, struggles to rebound from knee surgery, Hedges could become an intriguing freshman to watch during the coming season. With Brian McCann now in the Bronx, Sanchez could become tantalizing trade bait should the Yankees need to fill a hole in the roster later this year. First Basemen Jonathan Singleton, Astros D.J. Peterson, Mariners Dominic Smith, Mets Notes: First basemen are few and far between on the Top 100 list with both Peterson and Smith making the list as 2013 first round draft picks with high offensive ceilings. Singleton continues to be the best first base prospect in the game for a second straight season despite his struggles both off and on the field in 2013. Second Basemen Rougned Odor, Rangers Mookie Betts, Red Sox Jonathan Schoop, Orioles Kolten Wong, Cardinals Notes: Like with first basemen, it’s not easy to impress the fickle prospect ranking crowd if you’re a second baseman. Only four players made the cut in 2014 — the exact same number as in 2013. Both Schoop and Wong were on last year’s list while Odor and Betts are newcomers and have quite the momentum building for their young careers. Third Basemen Kris Bryant, Cubs Miguel Sano, Twins Maikel Franco, Phillies Nick Castellanos, Tigers Garin Cecchini, Red Sox Matt Davidson, White Sox Colin Moran, Marlins Mitch Nay, Blue Jays Notes: Anthony Rendon and Jedd Gyorko moved positions (both to second base interestingly enough) and graduated from the ’13 list. Frankly, it’s a much stronger list this season than last. Nay is probably the biggest surprise in the entire Top 100 (you probably won’t find him on anyone else’s list) but I’m going out on a limb with him much like I did with Michael Wacha last year and that worked out pretty well. Nay has a chance to be something very special with the bat and should hold his own defensively. Shortstops Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox Javier Baez, Cubs Addison Russell, Athletics Carlos Correa, Astros Francisco Lindor, Indians Notes: A whopping 13 shortstops made the Top 100 list in 2014 and the Top 5 have the potential to be superstars — much like the impressive wave of shortstop talents when the likes of Nomar Garciaparra, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter all came into the league in and around 1995. Bogaerts has a chance to be the best all-around player of the quintet (but don’t count out Correa) while Lindor could have the slickest glove and Baez the most potent offense. Corey Seager, Dodgers Raul Mondesi, Royals J.P. Crawford, Phillies Arismendy Alcantara, Cubs Chris Owings, Diamondbacks Alen Hanson, Pirates Hak-Ju Lee, Rays Luis Sardinas, Rangers Notes: The second tier of shortstops begins with Seager, who will likely move to third base, and Mondesi, who needs a little more polish to his game — but you can hardly blame him considering he’s just 18 with two pro seasons already under his belt. Lee could be the one player that really surprises the general baseball fan base; outside of his below-average power he features four potentially plus tools if he rebounds from serious knee surgery. Outfielders Byron Buxton, Twins Oscar Taveras, Cardinals George Springer, Astros Gregory Polanco, Pirates Albert Almora, Cubs Notes: For me, the top tier of outfielders includes the five names above with Buxton as the clear, undisputed No. 1. The Top 4 names could all reach the Majors in 2014 at various times throughout the season with Taveras being the most MLB ready. Jackie Bradley, Red Sox David Dahl, Rockies Clint Frazier, Indians Austin Meadows, Pirates Jorge Soler, Cubs Joc Pederson, Dodgers Billy Hamilton, Reds Notes: After Mitch Nay, Dahl could be the second most shocking ranking. Despite the 2013 injury and makeup concerns (which I believe are somewhat overblown considering he’s a teenager and teens do stupid things) his tools are impressive and he has an advanced hitting approach for his age. Both Frazier and Meadows could be big movers on this list within a year’s time. Jake Marisnick, Marlins Eddie Rosario, Twins Phillip Ervin, Reds Jorge Bonifacio, Royals Stephen Piscotty, Cardinals Brian Goodwin, Nationals Notes: Piscotty is probably the one outfielder that I’m most uncomfortable with in terms of where he ended up in the ranking — He might be too low. However, I’m just not sold that he’s going to hit with enough authority to develop into a premium corner outfielder. Pitchers Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks Taijuan Walker, Mariners Robert Stephenson, Reds Lucas Giolito, Nationals Eddie Butler, Rockies Jonathan Gray, Rockies Noah Syndergaard, Mets Dylan Bundy, Orioles Jameson Taillon, Pirates Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays Notes: The Top 10 is loaded with potential No. 1 and 2 starters. And about seven of those arms could graduate to the Majors in 2014 (excluding Giolito, Bundy, and Sanchez). The Rockies could have a nasty 1-2 punch in Butler and Gray, and I can only assume they don’t get more press because everyone expects them to falter due to the elevation. For me, Butler has a greater chance to succeed at home in Colorado because of his impressive ground-ball tendencies, whereas Gray is more of a fly-ball pitcher which doesn’t bode well for his splits. Out of the Top 10 arms, Taillon continues to be the most underrated but you really have to dig into the Pirates’ organizational philosophies to fully understand why his numbers aren’t quite as eye-popping as you might expect from someone with his stuff. Alex Meyer, Twins Kyle Zimmer, Royals Kevin Gausman, Orioles Mark Appel, Astros Kyle Crick, Giants Andrew Heaney, Marlins Kohl Stewart, Twins Yordano Ventura, Royals Eduardo Rodriguez, Orioles Jesse Biddle, Phillies Notes: For me, the three names that could really come on strong in 2014 and see their prospect values skyrocket are Zimmer, Stewart and Rodriguez. The Royals prospect almost got pushed further up the list but I decided to temper my enthusiasm — for now. The majority of these arms have a shot at graduating to the Majors in the coming season. Matt Wisler, Padres Braden Shipley, Diamondbacks Tyler Glasnow, Pirates A.J. Cole, Nationals Lucas Sims, Braves Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays Mike Foltynewicz, Astros Max Fried, Padres Justin Nicolino, Marlins Vincent Velasquez, Astros Notes: In a year from now, Foltynewicz’s ranking could seem low… Wisler, Shipley and Glasnow are three guys that I’m excited to follow in 2014. Both Wisler and Glasnow had breakout campaigns in ’13 while Shipley is a first round draft pick who is fairly new to full-time pitching and has crazy athleticism. Stroman’s lower-than-expected ranking is due to my continued expectation that he’s not long for starting (although I fully expect Toronto thinks he can remain a starter long term). Zach Lee, Dodgers Henry Owens, Red Sox Julio Urias, Dodgers Nick Kingham, Pirates Pierce Johnson, Cubs C.J. Edwards, Cubs Hunter Harvey, Orioles Jake Odorizzi, Rays Alex Colome, Rays Enny Romero, Rays Notes: It just so happened that I went on a run of four Rays pitchers in a row and Colome is an underrated arm. I might be light in my rankings on both Urias and Edwards but neither pitcher has much project ability left due to their respective frames. Owens, Kingham and Harvey have solid chances to see their values drastically increase in 2014. Taylor Guerrieri, Rays Jimmy Nelson, Brewers Jose Berrios, Twins Rafael Montero, Mets Miguel Almonte, Royals Matt Barnes, Red Sox Erik Johnson, White Sox Notes: Guerrieri would be much higher if not for his surgery and makeup concerns (much more troubling than Dahl’s). I like Nelson’s chances to be a significant contributor to the Brewers’ starting rotation over the next five or six years more so than sophomores Wily Peralta and Tyler Thornburg. Berrios and Almonte could be two pitchers to watch in 2014. Teams With the Most Top 100 Prospects 1t. Red Sox (7) 1t. Cubs (7) 1t. Pirates (7) 4t. Twins (6) 4t. Astros (6) 6t. Rays (5) 6t. Orioles (5) 6t. Royals (5) Teams With the Fewest Top 100 Prospects 30: Angels (0) 29t: Yankees (1) 29t: Tigers (1) 29t: Athletics (1) 29t: Brewers (1) 29t: Giants (1) 24t: Indians (2) 24t: White Sox (2) 24t: Mariners (2) 24t: Braves (2) Teams with the Most Pitching Prospects 1t. Rays (4) 1t. Orioles (4) 3t. Royals (3) 3t. Twins (3) 3t. Astros (3) 3t. Pirates (3) Teams with the Most Hitting Prospects 1t. Red Sox (5) 1t. Cubs (5) 3. Pirates (4) 4t. Twins (3) 4t. Astros (3) 4t. Rangers (3) 4t. Cardinals (3) Most Prospects by Division 1t. AL East (21) 1t. NL Central (21) 3. NL West (17) 4t. NL East (16) 4t. AL Central (16) 6. AL West (12) Below are links to all the lists that have been published to date. Click on the names to follow a link to each individual list. National League East Miami Marlins New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves–still to come Washington Nationals–still to come National League Central Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Chicago Cubs St. Louis Cardinals–up next Pittsburgh Pirates–still to come National League West San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers–still to come American League East Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays Boston Red Sox–still to come American League Central Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals Minnesota Twins Cleveland Indians Detroit Tigers–still to come American League West Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros Seattle Mariners Oakland Athletics–still to come Texas Rangers–still to come