2014 Trade Value: An Offseason Update
Every summer during the All-Star break, I run our annual Trade Value series. It’s a lot of fun, and a nice distraction from not having actual baseball for four days, and it makes some sense to publish it in the lead-up to the July 31st trade deadline, since that’s a time when we’re comparing the trade value of a lot of different players. However, there’s also a downside to running the trade value list in the middle of the season, as the list can look a little outdated pretty quickly based on things that happen in the second half of the year.
I’ve long tinkered with the idea of running something like an offseason update, looking at guys whose stock has changed dramatically in the last few months, and inspired by Jonah Keri’s take on the same subject, I’ve decided to do just that this year. If you haven’t checked out Jonah’s list, you should definitely do so, and for reference, I’ve noted his ranking for each of the guys who made my updated Top 50. I am not including contract data this time around, because you can find it all in the posts from this summer.
First, let’s look at the guys who appeared on the summer version of the list but have seen their stock fall enough that they’re out of my Top 50 at this point.
Gregory Polanco, #30
Polanco was a pretty significant disappointment for the Pirates after getting called up, failing to hit for power and playing surprisingly mediocre defense. There’s still plenty of potential there, but his short-term value looks lower than I assumed in the summer.
Billy Hamilton, #37
Hamilton hit surprisingly okay in the first half, and had a 105 wRC+ when the list was published, making his overall value more than just a speed-and-defense guy. He then posted a 42 wRC+ after the list was published, reminding everyone that his bat is a legitimate question mark.
Dustin Pedroia, #39
David Wright, #40
Players with great track records having down years are the toughest ones to rank. You don’t want to overreact to a few months of performance, but both were sliding down the list during a rough season, and neither one was able to turn it around. Now both are looking like post-prime players on not-so-cheap deals, and have been passed by younger talents with stronger futures.
Alex Cobb, #47
Edwin Encarnacion, #49
These two didn’t do anything to hurt their stock besides continue to play, but because neither one has a lot of team control remaining, even subtracting a half season of short-term value can cause them to lose a little bit of trade value. Both are on the fringes of the list, and so they didn’t move much, but because they were already close to the cut-off point, they took the hit when new guys forced their way in.
Now, for the guys who did make it, including the six new names. Keep in mind that this an update, not a complete redo, so I spent a lot less time evaluating things for this than I do for the big reveal in the summer. Don’t worry much about whether a guy is 23 or 28. The specific spots don’t matter so much, especially in the update. I was aiming for reasonable tiers more than anything else.
50. Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle
Previous Rank: 48
Jonah Keri Rank: 47
His $100 million extension might take a few teams out of the running for his services, but it didn’t affect his trade value much, as the deal was pretty fair by market standards.
49. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado
Previous Rank: NR
Jonah Keri Rank: 30
He might have ranked a few spots higher if we didn’t just see an elite third baseman who gets a lot of value from his glove traded for far less than what we would have expected. Arenado’s a very nice young player, but how much teams will pay for great 3B defense remains a bit of an open question.
48. Matt Carpenter, 3B, St. Louis
Previous Rank: 35
Jonah Keri Rank: NR
Another good defender at third who slides a bit due to last week’s trade. Carpenter’s a very good player signed to a cheap deal, but there’s an argument to be made that he’s not that different from Chase Headley.
47. Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago
Previous Rank: NR
Jonah Keri Rank: 44
Was a monster in 100 plate appearances after getting called up. Health track record still a bit of a question mark, but could move way up the list with a strong season in 2015.
46. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota
Previous Rank: 38
Jonah Keri Rank: 43
He just keeps getting hurt. The very high ceiling would create plenty of interest — look at the expected bidding for Yoan Moncada if you don’t think teams will pay significantly for upside — but he’s going to have to stay on the field pretty soon.
45. Marcus Stroman, SP, Toronto
Previous Rank: NR
Jonah Keri Rank: NR
Stroman was pretty freaking good for the Blue Jays last year, and established himself as one of the best young arms around. He still isn’t tall, but I think we can stop talking about him as a future reliever for a long while.
44. Jose Quintana, SP, Chicago
Previous Rank: 37
Jonah Keri Rank: NR
He still doesn’t look like a traditional ace, but his spectacular 2014 and his very team friendly contract make him one of the most unheralded assets in the game.
43. Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati
Previous Rank: 43
Jonah Keri Rank: 50
It’s right-handed power from a guy who can catch and is still young enough to get better. I remain comfortable with where he was ranked over the summer.
42. Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay
Previous Rank: 44
Jonah Keri Rank: NR
Jonah noted that an evaluator he talked to made a strong case for Archer to be on the list. I agree with that guy, whoever it was.
41. Yan Gomes, C, Cleveland
Previous Rank: 50
Jonah Keri Rank: 25
I’m not ready to be quite as aggressive as Jonah was, but 50 was probably a bit too low over the summer. Gomes’ stock is definitely trending upwards.
40. Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis
Previous Rank: 20
Jonah Keri Rank: 28
First half Wainwright was amazing; second half Wainwright was a bit of an enigma. Maybe he had arm problems, maybe he didn’t, but he wasn’t very good in October, and there are some indicators suggesting he’s heading for some decline.
39. Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta
Previous Rank: 45
Jonah Keri Rank: 27
Teheran just kept preventing runs in the second half, and while some of that may have had to do with the likes of Jason Heyward and Andrelton Simmons, he’s definitely got enough of a track record that teams would pay for what he’s done.
38. Lorenzo Cain, OF, Kansas City
Previous Rank: NR
Jonah Keri Rank: NR
He was the Royals best player this year, and clearly their best player in October, highlighting that he’s become more than just a good glove guy in center field. There’s enough athleticism there for teams to continue dreaming on even more upside even though he’s already 28, and he’s already quite good as it is.
37. Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh
Previous Rank: 49
Jonah Keri Rank: 38
After the list was published, Marte posted a 178 wRC+. Yeah, my prior ranking was too low.
36. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Toronto
Previous Rank: 17
Jonah Keri Rank: 22
And here lies the conundrum. Donaldson is an elite player making a fraction of his worth with four years of team control. By outside knowledge, he should be much higher than this, but he just got traded for far less than we all thought he’d go for. Maybe the A’s screwed up, but we have to at least acknowledge that he’s worth less than we think.
35. Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami
Previous Rank: 34
Jonah Keri Rank: 24
I still don’t know what to do with injured pitchers. Jonah was more aggressive with them than I have been. Maybe he’s right. Maybe teams wouldn’t give up anything close to this kind of value for a guy with a busted elbow. I have no idea, really.
34. Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee
Previous Rank: 33
Jonah Keri Rank: 37
One of the best players in the National League, and still signed to a super friendly contract. I affirm his midsummer ranking.
33. Yordano Ventura, SP, Kansas City
Previous Rank: 32
Jonah Keri Rank: 35
The arm scare in October seemed like a reminder of the inherent risk with guys like this, but then he went on and pitched really well anyway. With the risk comes plenty of reward.
32. Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore
Previous Rank: 8
Jonah Keri Rank: 42
A perfect example of why the update is useful; Machado getting hurt again after the list was published did a number on his trade value, and while he’s still one of the game’s brightest young talents, he no longer looks like he’ll ever play shortstop again.
31. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta
Previous Rank: 28
Jonah Keri Rank: 32
As Jonah said, a very hard guy to peg. Some teams would pay a lot for elite defense and youth, while others wouldn’t be that interested in a guy who doesn’t hit much at all. There are enough teams that value SS defense that I think the bidding would be pretty strong, however.
30. Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto
Previous Rank: 27
Jonah Keri Rank: 48
Right-handed power is crazy expensive right now. Bautista is one of the very best right-handed bats in the game. Yeah, it’s only a couple more years of team control for an aging player, but I think he’d extract a serious return based on his skillset.
29. Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis
Previous Rank: 22
Jonah Keri Rank: 29
Didn’t hit much at all after coming back from injury, and then was pretty lousy in the postseason too. Still one of the very best players in baseball, but his second half was a reminder that he might not be that for too much longer.
28. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado
Previous Rank: 6
Jonah Keri Rank: 31
Another guy whose value took a hit from getting hurt in the second half. The contract isn’t cheap and he’s not durable, but when healthy, Tulo is a top three player in the sport. If the Rockies trade him, they’re going to get a ton in return.
27. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay
Previous Rank: 9
Jonah Keri Rank: 21
The former King of Trade Value went from having a down first half to having a down year, and so he slides quite a bit more than he did over the summer. This might be an overreaction for a guy who is still just 29, but again, an elite third baseman didn’t seem to cost what we thought it would last week.
26. Michael Brantley, OF, Cleveland
Previous Rank: 41
Jonah Keri Rank: 15
A monster season means I was a bit low on him this summer, especially given his team-friendly contract, but the track record doesn’t support a repeat performance. Odds are Brantley either looks way too low or way too high at this time next year, depending on how much of his 2014 season he can sustain.
25. Mookie Betts, 2B/OF, Boston
Previous Rank: NR
Jonah Keri Rank: 40
Betts was in the running for the end of the list over the summer, then went on to put up a 130 wRC+ in a couple hundred big league plate appearances down the stretch. For those focused solely on upside, this might be a bit too aggressive, but Betts is probably a top five second baseman in the big leagues right now, and he’ll be a valuable piece in the outfield if Boston keeps him.
24. Christian Yelich, OF, Miami
Previous Rank: NR
Jonah Keri Rank: 23
I whiffed on this one. Tip of the hit to Mr. Keri for shining a light on one of the game’s most unheralded young stars. Yelich should have been on this summer’s list, and this might even look low in a year or two.
23. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington
Previous Rank: 26
Jonah Keri Rank: 36
It’s only two more years of team control, but they’re not going to be too terribly expensive, and Strasburg is a legitimate #1 starter. For a team who wanted an ace without taking on a huge financial commitment, Strasburg would be one of the most appealing options around.
22. Yu Darvish, SP, Texas
Previous Rank: 16
Jonah Keri Rank: 17
Another case of what to do with a pitcher who ended the year on the DL. I don’t know how much teams would discount Darvish’s value. I don’t know that the teams themselves even know how much of a discount is necessary, because guys like this never get traded. We’re basically just throwing darts here.
21. Sonny Gray, SP, Oakland
Previous Rank: 31
Jonah Keri Rank: 34
He might not be a traditional front-of-the-rotation guy, but I think I was a little low on him over the summer. Strikes, groundballs, and a hint of a weak contact skillset would have Gray in very high demand if the A’s put him on the blocks.
20. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston
Previous Rank: 23
Jonah Keri Rank: 41
Yeah, I know, it seems weird to move him up based on his second half performance, but the Red Sox have confirmed his status as their shortstop, and there’s still plenty of upside left in the bat. The dearth of good hitting middle infielders means that Bogaerts still has elite potential, even if he hasn’t shown it in the big leagues quite yet.
19. Matt Harvey, SP, New York
Previous Rank: 25
Jonah Keri Rank: 13
Another great arm coming off an injury. I still don’t know what to do with these guys.
18. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle
Previous Rank: 19
Jonah Keri Rank: 20
The second best pitcher in baseball isn’t cheap, but he’s still really, really good. And the Mariners still aren’t trading him.
17. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago
Previous Rank: 29
Jonah Keri Rank: 18
He’s basically big league ready at this point, and there are few players in the game who can match his power from the right side. I’ve had one executive tell me that he’s Troy Glaus. Sounds about right, and seems like one of the most valuable young talents in the game.
16. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta
Previous Rank: 24
Jonah Keri Rank: 26
Freeman’s contract keeps him out of the top 15, but he’s still one of the best young hitters in the sport. And with prices going the way they are in free agency, the contract that looked so surprisingly high a year ago looks like a pretty smart move now.
15. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco
Previous Rank: 21
Jonah Keri Rank: 11
At the summer list, Posey was coming off a full year of mediocre offensive performance, and was starting to slide in the same way Pedroia and Wright were. He turned things around in a huge way down the stretch, though, reminding us of why we shouldn’t overreact to small samples. Posey is still one of the game’s very best players, even if his days at catcher are probably going to end in a few years.
14. Corey Kluber, SP, Cleveland
Previous Rank: 42
Jonah Keri Rank: 16
You saw his second half, and now he’s a Cy Young winner. Few people have raised their stock as quickly as Kluber, and I was just too slow to catch up over the summer. Kluber’s awesome. Good call, Cistulli.
13. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee
Previous Rank: 14
Jonah Keri Rank: 12
Still one of the best two-way players in baseball, adding significant value on both offense and defense. Teams still aren’t paying a premium for catcher framing, though, so he probably wouldn’t command as much in return as he’s worth to the Brewers.
12. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington
Previous Rank: 13
Jonah Keri Rank: 9
Status mostly unchanged. He remains one of the best young hitters in baseball, and has proven he can be a defensive asset at either third base or second base.
11. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco
Previous Rank: 18
Jonah Keri Rank: 5
That was some kind of October, and clearly, his value is up since the publication of the list this summer. Jonah makes the case for him as a top five player, but I can’t quite get there yet. Pitchers still break too often, and teams still discount their value based on the chance of having a premium asset suddenly on the shelf.
10. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago
Previous Rank: 12
Jonah Keri Rank: 7
The fall of Machado and Tulowitzki move him up somewhat by default. I’m still a big fan, of course.
9. Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City
Previous Rank: 7
Jonah Keri Rank: 19
His second half was miserable, posting a 61 wRC+ after the list was published, and he was an easy out in October, so perhaps I’m being stubborn by not moving him down further. But when you look at what Russell Martin got, and then you remember that Perez is due just $18.6 million in total over the next five years, it’s easy to remember why he ranked so highly over the summer.
8. Chris Sale, SP, Chicago
Previous Rank: 11
Jonah Keri Rank: 4
I still don’t like putting pitchers in the top 10, but Sale combines elite performance in a hitter’s park in the American League with an absurdly team-friendly contract. He’s not quite the best pitcher in baseball, but he’s close, and he’s now making just a hair more than Zach Duke.
7. Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles
Previous Rank: 5
Jonah Keri Rank: 10
The shoulder problems that limited his power in the second half might be the biggest concern, but there’s always personality questions surrounding Puig as well. He’s not a low-risk guy, but the performance/cost ratio remains among the highest in the game.
6. Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago
Previous Rank: 10
Jonah Keri Rank: 8
Few players offer more right-handed power than Abreu, and unlikely many of the others, he comes with very few red flags. He’s a monster, and everyone just missed the boat on him last winter. Everyone but the White Sox, anyway.
5. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami
Previous Rank: 15
Jonah Keri Rank: 14
Yeah, $325 million in guaranteed money would scare off plenty of teams, but for those with significant revenues, I think the contract actually raises his trade value. The uncertainty of losing him after four years is now gone, and the backloaded deal makes the present value of the contract less than the big scary $325 million number. Teams like the Red Sox and Yankees would give up a ransom to acquire Stanton, and maybe even a larger one than they would have before he signed his new deal.
4. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington
Previous Rank: 4
Jonah Keri Rank: 6
I had him at #4 when he had an 85 wRC+ at the All-Star break; he rewarded the confidence with a 131 wRC+ afterwards. I still think he’s going to challenge Mike Trout for title of best player in baseball at some point in the future.
3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona
Previous Rank: 3
Jonah Keri Rank: 3
Ended the year on the DL, but no real reason to move him down. Still an elite player signed to a hilariously team friendly contract.
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh
Previous Rank: 2
Jonah Keri Rank: 2
Yup, he’s still the best player in the National League. No reason to move him anywhere.
1. Mike Trout, OF, Anaheim
Previous Rank: 1
Jonah Keri Rank: 1
You weren’t expecting anyone else, were you?
Overall, most players stock isn’t going to move that much in a few months, but there was enough movement with some guys that I felt the update was justified. And now you can compare Jonah’s rankings with mine on a slightly more even playing field. Jonah likes injured pitchers. I liked Boston’s young hitters. There’s plenty of room for difference of opinion here, and I’m glad we both get to take part in this exercise.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
if you love Mookie Betts so much, why don’t you just marry him?
Don’t feed the troll.
He’ll have to ask my permission first. I’ve adopted him.
Funny how Betts is suddenly “proven” after 200 ABs, while DC preaches SSS at every opportunity. Also Funny how Jona has Hamels having same value as Betts and DC wouldn’t trade Betts for him even if the Phillies sent 110$ mil along. Quite a difference of opinion.
The Hamels ranking/group on Jonah’s was hilarious.
If by hilarious you mean right on the money, you’re right.
don’t advocate for Hamels here or you risk much anger.
Rankings: Xander (41), Betts (40), Hamels (39)
“In the end, it’s tough to see the Red Sox trading Betts or, especially, Bogaerts for Hamels or anyone else, but it’s a fun thought experiment.”
Wouldn’t Xander and Betts be above Hamels then? I certainly agree with DC that they’re both more valuable than Hamels if the Sox take on the entire contract.
The weird thing is, if you see the Red Sox as all-in for 2015 and the Phillies looking past 2015, the thought process should be something like this:
Red Sox – we’re OK with adding on more payroll, but not wrecking it with seven expensive years for Scherzer. So even though we’re giving up a lot of future value, let’s offer Betts for Hamels to fill our biggest need, and throw in a lesser prospect if needed.
Phillies – we need to get younger and cheaper, and get some more payroll flexibility a couple of years down the road. Let’s offer Hamels for Betts straight up, and pay $10-15 million of his contract if needed.
Teams in different situations really should have way different trade values for player depending upon their situation. That’s why any trade value list should be taken with a grain of salt.
I really don’t understand why Dave is so down on Hamels. If Hamels were a free agent, he’d get something like what Lester is about to sign for, about $50,000,000 than he’s currently signed for. How is that gap not worth a top prospect?
“I really don’t understand why Dave is so down on Hamels…”
If it was $50M more in the same years, maybe… but in his case, it’d be roughly the same AAV for two more years, so the ‘discount’ isn’t that he’s cheaper as much as he’s off the books sooner.
How much excess value does Betts have? Steamer thinks he’s close to a 4-win player given 600 plate appearances; let’s conservatively say he’s closer to 3 wins. Since he just turned 22, that’s not likely to fall off much over the next few years. So while he’s under team control, he could produce about $100M worth of wins on the free agent market, while getting paid a fraction of that. He probably won’t get 600 plate appearances next season, and there’s even more uncertainty about his future value than there is for anyone else, but it’s not remotely clear that what Hamels saves them is worth giving up Betts.
Keri seems to value actual production and years of control more than Fangraphs while Fangraphs values potential and low salary more. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle and really relies on how important salary efficiency is to a club.
I do think the idea that if the Sox were offered Hamels straight up for their 6th best prospect that they’d have to think it over is absurd and just a little out of touch with reality, though.
For a guy like hamels we need to understand that return on value is not a straight line, yet salaries are generally much closer to linear.
Teams will pay more for a marginal win this year than they will for a marginal win in 3 years. Hamels gets a bump for likely producing next year at a high level (at a position every team could use him).
so instead of saying a guy that is a 2 war player this year is worth 10m AAV, it may be more logical to say he is worth 10m next year. A guy that will miss next year and play the following is only worth 7m if i signed him now (since a win in the future is worth less). Extrapolating that, i think we can see why Hamels holds more value than most of us think since you are not paying a premium for later wins (when they should be costing less). The way the AAV are structured do not reflect what teams are purchasing each season, but a contract that escalates is simply buying marginal wins now on future credit.
The 200 plate appearances were just confirmation of what any pseudo-intelligent sabermetricians mind knows. Guys that produce awesome K/BB ratios in the minors while putting up otherwise really good stats when they are much younger than their competition translate well to the big leagues. Add in some health and athleticism which Mookie has and he’s close to a no-brainer. Admittedly I’m a Red Sox fan but I also would not have had Bogearts on this list. Betts case is special and people need to realize that. Actually they already do……look at the ridiculous trade requests floating around.
Why do you hate my team you stupid prick!
Thanks for the update, Dave. This was like a surprise party for my offseason.
Donaldson – I struggled with the same issue when looking at Jonah’s list. Normally the lists are predicated on theoretical value… but JD just realized his actual trade value and it was not terrible high.
Perhaps it’s not that you’re valuing Donaldson differently than Beane, but rather he’s valuing what he received in return differently. Is it not possible that Donaldson should be higher on this list AND he’s worth what he was traded for?
I just find it odd that Dave ranked him lower than he thought he should be because of the trade when he should be ranking him relative to the other people on the list. I can look at several people ranked better on his list that I would never trade Donaldson for.
Ya Brett Lawrie isn’t even on this list and I would never trade Donaldson for him.
Brett Lawrie is a fraction of the total return.
I heart you and I heart your trade value series
Yup, Stanton year 1-4, top 10. After that, NR.
For the sake of “just sayin'”, Royals Review did a full-roster trade value series, and ranked Hosmer, Davis, Holland, Gordon, Duffy, and Brandon Finnegan over Lorenzo Cain, due to LoCain’s inconsistent and injury-riddled past years. Discuss.
For the sake of “just sayin,'” I’m not going to discuss the stupidity that the Royals Review spit out.
You already did.
Dave is crazy high on Cain. But Cain is crazy hard to rank and Dave can have his own crazy opinion. Plus it seems like he just likes some guys – Cain and Betts jump out. Very hard not to let personal preference affect a couple of rankings in an overall decent list..
So we are not going to mention the fact that the contract is just a giant loan now against his future earnings to the team. He gets more than he is worth in later years to have a cheap salary now.
Curious if Kole Calhoun ever got consideration. 5 years of control, type of player who might be relatively underpaid in arbitration, +4.8 WAR in last 759 PA. Though is older than most guys with 5 years of control
if Calhoun got serious consideration, then guys like Juan Lagares [similar PA, also five years of control, more fWAR] would be way up the list…
What did I ever do to you, Dave?
He hates the Phillies…and the Mariners…and [insert any team or player here].
nelson cruz
Are you suggesting Ken Giles should be on this list?
He just posted a FIP- of 36 as a 24-year-old with 5 years of team control left and he’s got no injury history. I get that he’s a reliever, but seems like a pretty obvious snub to me.
only one I completely don’t get is Tulo. maybe you’re acknowledging that you ranked him too highly mid-season, but otherwise you’re bumping him down 20+ spots for doing what he’s done every year, getting hurt.
I agree with the other comments. these are always a lot of fun to read.
“I still think he’s going to challenge Mike Trout for title of best player in baseball at some point in the future.”
lol
Haha, thank you!!
What was that, Alice?
Surprised to not see Gerrit Cole here. Seems like he woudl have favorable trade value over many here, at least similar to Ventura.
I thought I would see him on here as well, but the more I look at the list, the more I think I would trade cole straight up for anyone on it. with the exceptions of Jose Bautista and Lorenzo Cain. I don’t think Cain belongs on this list. I would rather have Polanco than Cain.
Completely agree. We are talking about a guy who averages 96-97 and up to 100 on the fastball,has two plus breaking balls,a real nice sinker, and an average changeup. He is a former 1-1 pick which teams love. They also love his body as being durable.
that feels high for Bogaerts and very low for Brantley.
also, Jake deGrom says hi.
Dave is a Red Sox homer except when he hates the Red Sox. And he does hate the Indians except when he is an Indians homer. And everybody hates deGrom.
A guy with 4 plus pitches who throws 98 with great command, who can k 8 players in a row. I hate that he is on another team too
this statement makes perfect sense
Freeman was 26 on Keri’s list, not 8th.
Kershaw?
Clayton?
Maybe?
Call me?
Kershaw can opt out if he is traded. This is mentioned in Keri’s (part 1) trade value piece
” but the clause in his contract that grants him free-agency rights at year’s end if he’s traded in-season or the same rights at the end of a full campaign if he’s dealt in the offseason substantially undercut his trade value”
Also, Dave is a Dodgers homer (unless it “changes” tomorrow when he likes their 4 yr, $68 mil signing of Chase Headley).
His contract allows him to opt out after being traded, but I think teams would still be willing to give up a great deal to get him
Along with injured pitchers, I struggle with what to do with the guys drafted out of college and are top prospects but haven’t seen time in the majors (so, yeah, Kris Bryant). Clearly he belongs on the list and six years of team control is obviously fantastic. However, he around the same age as as a lot of the guys who are at the top of the list (Trout, Harper, Puig, Bogaerts, Betts, Arenado, Soler, Machado). We know that the younger you reach the majors and perform well, the better. Bryant having an age 23 season that Bogaerts put up at age 21 would be much more concerning. However, I also recognize that the Cubs held Byrant back for service time reasons last year, so it’s also totally unfair to penalize him for not playing in the majors last year. So I have no clue where to put him.
I do think Bryant is ranked a little too high because I doubt every MLB team sees him as a third baseman down the line, depressing his value a bit. But again, that pushes him to what, high 20s? Low 30s?
There were rumors that the Cubs were nearing a deal to send Kris Bryant to the Astros in return for Carlos Correa, Mark Appel, and Vince Velazquez. If that answers your question.
Started by the same Cub fans who aren’t worried about Baez, I assume.
Cubs fans already have Baez in the hall of fame
Are these the same Cubs fans who think Schwarber is going to play catcher in the majors?
So did you consider the opt-out for Jose Abreu that allows him to enter arbitration? Did you consider the extra year of team control that the Dodgers have with Puig? I’d think these things would make Abreu less valuable and Puig more valuable, but there value actually went in opposite directions than what that would suggest. Just curious, how exactly could Harper be more valuable than Puig. Puig has been clearly better, will make less money during arbitration years, and the Dodgers have him for an extra year. And every “character issue” with Puig could be said about Harper, too.
Yeah, I tend to agree with this. The two year difference in age between Puig and Harper is unlikely to matter for the duration of their team control.
I think the “how good will Harper be” and the “how valuable is his contract” get conflated. As good as he may be, and the increased chances of improvement that come from him only being 22 next year don’t really matter for the Nats aside from the next 4 years. If there seemed to be a chance for a Mike Trout like extension, it would matter. But there doesn’t.
I was wrong about one thing; Puig can also opt into arbitration. I also said “there” instead of “their” which is embarrassing. Puig still seems way more valuable. He’s been better, the youth angle doesn’t apply (Puig will be 28 in his last year of team control), and you get an extra year.
Also, one other advantage is that Puig is not basically on record saying he will go to free agency while Harper is.
Feels like the guys who haven’t proven they’re quality major leaguers are too high – Boegarts, Betts, Bryant and Buxton. (What’s with all the Bs?)
Boargarts has yet to produce and is down to five years of control, to value him this highly places a high probability on him making a leap that hasn’t happened yet. It might, but it’s at least equally possible he levels out at league average or a little below. Same thing for the other three – this seems like it overrates the possibility that these guys become Trout or McCuth. That just doesn’t happen all that often. Lawrie, Profar and Machado are recent “middle of the road” examples, and there have certainly been enough Delmon Youngs and Brandon Woods to see total bust potential.
Bogaerts is overrated, but Betts, Bryant, and Buxton all have a 15% chance of becoming a Mike Trout-level player and a 70% chance of becoming a consistent 5+ WAR player and a 95% chance of becoming a consistent 3+ WAR player.
if those percentages were accurate, those 3 guys would be in the top 5 of this list.
Yeah, given that Trout’s had one of the best 3 year runs in history putting more than even a 1% chance on that outcome is a bit ridiculous. And 95% chance of 3+ WAR doesn’t add up, either. Scroll through BAs historical top 100 prospect rankings. I’ve not done the math, but there’s a substantial percentage (must be 30 – 40%) of top 10 prospects who don’t get any 3 WAR seasons, let alone get there consistently. Consistent 5 WAR players are … maybe 15 – 20 in all of MLB?
Using those benchmarks, percentage is probably more like .2% Trout / 5% consistent 5 WAR / 60% consistent 3 WAR.
I agree with all 3 at the 0.2% for Trout. But I would put Bryant and Betts in the 20% 5+ WAR and 80% 3+ WAR. And Buxton at 15% and 60%.
In other words I think its a little over 50-50 that 1 will be a 5+ WAR guy and 2 will be a 3+ WAR guys.
You just pulled these numbers out of thin air.
Steamer projects Betts to 2.5 WAR next year despite only giving him 89 games because of playing time concerns.
Hmmm. More like 1% chance of being Trout, 70% chance of 3.5+ WAR per year over their prime 5 seasons, and 95% chance of long MLB careers with at least 15 total WAR.
Trout is distinctly better than anyone since the days of Schmidt and Morgan. He’s headed for triple digit career WAR barring catastrophic injury. McCutchen has played like a first ballot HOFer for the last three years and hasn’t really been close to as valuable as Trout — that’s how rare Trout is.
Betts doesn’t really have a defensive position yet, Bryant fans a LOT, and Buxton has been hurt quite a bit lately. So there is some risk in each case.
He’s better than Bonds, Arod, And Griffey? Griffey maybe, but bonds was a better hitter.
Hahahaha what
Altuve just posted a +5 win season at age 24. He is being paid $25M over the next 5 years. Not AAV, total. $5M per year for ages 25-29. That he doesn’t make the list is lunacy.
buncha height discriminators
I beg to differ!
Because 2014 could be a BABIP-powered blip, and because he isn’t great on defense, and a lot of his value is baserunning, which will decline as he gets older?
He’s a great player, but top 50 trade value?
Every GM in the game today would take Altuve and his contract over Pedroia and his remaining contract.
I’ll bet Ben Cherington wouldn’t.
Jim from Fangraphs comments, inside line to every GM in baseball
As he gets older? He’ll be 29 when his final option year runs out. Steamer projects him for three wins next season with a .321 BABIP and just one baserunning run above average. Without those factors he’s still a first division starter with five years of team control at a very low rate.
He’s just leaving him off out of stubbornness at this point. He led the AL in hitting and stole 50+ bases. Every GM in baseball would take him right now with his very cheap contract but the argument is “his base running value will erode”, Billy Hamilton was on the last list for &%$# sake.
Hmm.. I wonder what steamer projected Altuve would do every year so far?
You Stat nerds need to be hit upside the head with reality from time to time. The fact that you still look at projections for a player who has defied all projections shows us why you guys still aren’t taken more seriously. Have fun with your projections. I’ll be the guy laughing at you when yet again not a single glee projection comes close to true.
Sonny Gray feels very high. I feel is product of environment more than pure stud.
I feel like you’re wrong. He’s very good, very young, and very inexpensive.
26 years old, 7.52 K/9, 3.47 xFIP, 8.7% swinging strike rate
Does that warrant the 21st most valuable trade chip?
I wouldn’t deal Kyle Seager for him.
I agree he is a bit high, but his 56% GB-rate will play anywhere.
I’m not sure I see why Goldschmidt is so much higher than Rizzo. Rizzo is two years younger, has two more years of super cheap team control, and had his breakthrough season at a younger age than Goldschmidt.
The same could be said for Abreu as well. Abreu is going to cost $50.5 million for the next five years where he’ll be 28 through 32 and Rizzo is going to cost $35 million for the same amount of time and his age 25 through 29 seasons, plus he has two $14 million team options after that. and on top of all that, Rizzo was more valuable last year and isn’t a liability on the field or basepaths.
To Recap:
Goldschmidt: Signed for five years, ages 27-31 for $43.45 million ($30.95 guaranteed)
Abreu: Signed for five years, ages 28-32 for $59.334 million (all guaranteed)
Rizzo: Signed for seven years, ages 25-31 for $64 million ($36 guaranteed)
Now, I know that there isn’t a huge difference between 3rd and 10th places, but I think that Rizzo has such a team friendly contract that he could easily be placed ahead of the other two first basemen, especially since I’m not convinced there’s a huge talent gap between the three of them.
Rizzo also was an average first baseman in ’12 and ’13 and saw a huge increase in ISO last year. Needs to do it again in order to jump those guys imo; and if he does, he’ll probably be top three.
Wouldn’t the same have to be said for Abreu? He’s only shown 600 PAs that he can hit.
Also, at the ages Rizzo was putting up league average seasons Goldschmidt was in the minor leagues, so I’m not sure I buy that in the Goldschmidt case either. Also, Rizzo isn’t coming off a season where he missed a third of the games due to a broken hand, which is an injury that can sap power.
If money was no object, I would personally rate the three Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Abreu, but in trade value money obviously is a huge issue, and Rizzo’s added years for not much extra moneyand his youth makes me think he would net a bigger return than the other two.
So freeman is better?
I’m inclined to agree with JayT. Also, lets point out Rizzo’s solid walk rate and lack of great babip luck, and he has a lower K% than goldschmidt, for example (last year 18.8%, 23% for goldy). Goldy is a beast, but how many more times can he post .360+ BABIPs?
otm
Man, I just can’t see Giancarlo Stanton having more trade value than he did before. You’ve taken SO many teams out of the picture financially now.
If there was a 100% guarantee he’d opt-out, I’d say his trade value ranking is about right. But the real chance that he gets hurt enough to derail his career means the team trading for him might be on the hook for all that back-loaded money with no value to show for it.
So I have to agree with you, the contract should have lowered his trade value, not raised it.
Totally agree. I actually think it was a bad contract. I am not sure I even put him in the top 50 anymore. Probably in the minority on that one though.
I just can’t see how so many teams are out of the picture when the Marlins are the one currently paying the deal.
Now there’s plenty of teams who wouldn’t do that deal on principle, but 3/4 of the league could afford to do so and still field a reasonably paid team.
If mookie betts was offered in a trade for tulo, the rockies would ask for more. The idea that any prospect is worth more than tulo is ridiculous on its face. betts would be shipped out of town yesterday if he could bring back a package with value remotely comparable to what tulo would bring.
If both teams were in the win-now mode, absolutely. If the Rockies were looking past 2015 to rebuild for the future, then Betts’s value over the longer term might actually make this an even trade from Colorado’s perspective.
Of course, as Dave points out, the big issue with Tulo being ranked where he is is his injury history. If he had a clean bill of health he’d be up in the top five with ease.
Yeah, and also not to harp on it, but Betts costs practically nothing and will for a while. So while some teams will NEVER be able to afford Tulo-like value on the open market, they can convert fungible major/minor-league assets into Betts.
Put another way, Tampa Bay couldn’t trade for Tulo simply because they probably couldn’t afford him and the cost would be too dear (desperately needed minor leaguers). Whereas they could put Longoria and Jennings (or whatever) in a package to get Betts.
At this point it would be hilarious to see Betts fall on his face just because of how much fangraphs is hyping him up.
Somebody else said it best. When a guy does the same stuff at 21 that Pedroia did when he was 24, it’s a sign that he’s a special player.
I always try to look at the risks of a young player not panning out, but with Betts the only risk I see is injury risk, just like everyone else.
Some here might find it hilarious if Hamels were to blow out his elbow tomorrow just because of how much you’re hyping him.
I don’t understand why any player with a large contract would even be on this list. There may be some validity to the notion that Stanton could outperform his current contract, but I could surely come up with more than four players all but guaranteed to provide more surplus value.
It seems like list should be populated almost exclusively by players with multiple years of initial team control (i.e., first six years of service time) remaining.
Agree on Stanton. See above.
Disagree. The goal of the game is to win, not to get value. Value is definitely the driving factor behind return on trades, but actual production is another.
It’s getting tougher to sign top flight players in free agency because of deals like Stanton’s and Trout’s. I have no doubt that high payroll teams would give up a lot for the right to pay.
That said I was a little surprised to see Stanton up so high.
Is Clayton Kershaw un-ranked or did I miss him on the the list?
Stanton signs mega-deal – increase his trade value. Kershaw signs his, remove him off entirely.
Because Kershaw has a clause that say that he can opt out of his contract if he gets traded.
So what? Value is value, whether the player is traded or not.
What is the word in the title of this article right before “value”?
So does this list exclude everyone with a NTC? Of course not, “Trade Value” is just the most common term for “Surplus Value”
Not when the list is trade value.
Again, then it should exclude everyone with a No Trade Clause, right? Because I’m sure many of these guys have one.
Equating a no-trade clause to an opt-out clause makes no sense. A no-trade clause doesn’t change what the team would be willing to offer in trade, it just means the player has the right to nix the deal regardless of whether his current club would accept it. However, the opt-out clause would absolutely impact the trade offers on Kershaw because you have to conservatively assume that you might be getting a one-year rental instead of many years of a lockdown ace.
I concur steex.
A guy with a no-trade clause simply has veto power. He could waive it – guys have done it in the past! It doesn’t void the terms of the contract, it just prevents trades without the player’s consent.
The opt-out triggers automatically and there’s nothing a team can do about it. So it discourages trades. And more importantly, the player has NO INCENTIVE to waive it like they would a no-trade clause. They wanna get paid.
@Nik, do u even logic bro?
A no – trade clause is not the same as an automatic opt-out. There’s not player on the trade deadline list who would be a free agent at the end of the season and there won’t be one on the list this July.
It gives me comfort that you’re the only one unable to figure this out.
You seem to need it spelled out for you so…
Team trades their top five prospects for Kershaw. Kershaw gets there and says “hey, guys. You seem nice, but I would rather play somewhere else. I am terminating my contract and becoming a free agent where many teams (maybe you, too) will fight for the right to pay me large fractions of a billion dollars over the next few years to play baseball. Sorry you crippled your farm system and mortgaged your future for 10 of my starts and 80 innings.”
This is the opposite of “value.”
Do you think in order to acquire all 50 of these guys you’d have to cripple the farm system? Nobody’s saying he should be #1, but half a season of Kershaw is crazy valuable.
Josh Donaldson did not just realize his true trade value. Beane didn’t even shop him around. You can’t allow something stupid like that to ruin the integrity of your whole list. Evaluate Donaldson on the Jays the same way you evaluated Donaldson last year on the Athletics. Stop all this, “Oh, baseball teams know things we don’t and never make mistakes” crap.
If the Jays suddenly put Donaldson on the market, what do you think his trade value would be. Seriously, he goes from 17 to 36 even though nothing about him has changed?
“Beane didn’t even shop him around.”
Source?
It still ruins the integrity of the list, regardless of what Beane did. I am not convinced Donaldson should fall from 17 to 36. If anything, the trade should have readjusted the perceived value of the 17th slot, not reordered Donaldson’s placement. He is still the same freaking player he’s always been.
So, you initially based your conclusion on an unfounded claim. Then, when I asked you for the source of your claim, you gave up that claim, but reasserted your conclusion.
So, now you are holding on to your conclusion with no premises supporting it.
If he puts up a 5.6 WAR season (as he’s projected too), and remains extremely cheap relative to his value (Jays don’t sign him to a long term albatross deal), how the heck can Dave possibly justify keeping him at 36? Will he? No. He’ll shoot him back up to 17.
No what if he puts up a 6.4 or 7 WAR season like he has the last two years?
Dave is definitely way too impressionable in this instance. Who cares what Beane did?
It’s a trade value list. Whether or not Donaldson’s the same player is irrelevant. His trade value is, by definition, determined by what other GM’s will pay.
Argue that Lawrie + the others really has more value than Dave is suggesting if you believe Donaldson should be higher. Arguing that his trade value is higher than was just demonstrated factually is just being obtuse.
I don’t know someone in the know, so my sources are squat.
With that said, if Beane had been shopping Donaldson to media circus franchises (Boston, New York, LA ect…) somebody would have heard and there likely would have been rumours. You might not buy that, and I don’t entirely either, but it is a possibility. How well covered are the Moss and Shark trade rumors? Pretty well covered.
Further, Beane made it pretty clear to the Jays in initial discussions that Donaldson was off the table. That leads me to assume he told other teams this as well.
Further, Beane got the return he got from the Jays. He didn’t get the return he almost certainly would have gotten from a big boy franchise. You’ll no doubt quibble with this, and argue that the Jays’ offer was the best offer among a whole host of offers, or that the Jays were the only one’s interested in Donaldson (please don’t argue that), but c’mon dude. Do you really think the Dodgers or Red Sox or Yankees or Cardinals or Pirates or whoever (who all need or needed 3B) wouldn’t have offered more? C’mon dude
If you think the Cardinals or Pirates need a 3b, you just haven’t been paying attention.
The Cards’ third baseman is on this list, for crying out loud.
This list has no integrity if a trade knocks Donaldson 20 slots downward.
By Dave’s logic every player that was behind Donaldson in value last year (above 17) should have also been knocked back about 20 slots.
All the trade told us is what the worth of the 17th slot was.
And don’t tell me the Cards wouldn’t love to put Donaldson at 3rd and Carpenter back at 2nd. Carp is avg at third; they would have parted with Wong, Miller, and whoever to get Donaldson.
And the PIRATES DON’T NEED a 3B???? Alvarez is done, and Harrison is a huge ? buddy. And the pirates have fantastic pieces to trade, so don’t act like they didn’t belong on that list.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/al-central-notes-plouffe-donaldson-hahn.html
The Indians were told Donaldson wasn’t available.
The only ranking I take issue with is Salvador Perez. Yes he’s cheap for a long time, but not convinced he’s that good and his approach is pitiful. Martin career OBP 40 pts better. Doesn’t help that Yost ran him into the ground this year, but if/when the defense falters he’s A.J. Pierzynski.
Steamer projects that he’ll bounce back to his 2013-level offense, which would make him one of the most, if not THE most, valuable catchers in baseball. If only he’d work on pitch selection (KC hitting coaches have probably spent the bulk of their time trying to ‘fix’ Moose and Hosmer).
Curious to see how far Derek Holland was from making the list. Knee injury aside, he’s posted 11.1 fWAR in 623.1 IP since becoming a full-time starter in 2011 (averaging 3.6 fWAR per 200 IP), and his ERA matches his FIP and xFIP almost exactly. He has four years of control remaining at just under $10M AAV, and the latter two years are club options. Steamer is probably justified in thinking his home run rate will increase next year, but a lot of that results from Holland’s extremely inflated home run rate back when Arlington was more homer-friendly.
I am 100% baffled by how much hype Mookie Betts is getting from the Fangraphs staff. 213 PAs! 213! I guy who was a fringe top 5 prospect in baseball has 213 good PAs, and now he has more trade value than 3 years of Michael Brantley or 5 years of Starling Marte? Did I take a wrong turn from my kitchen to my computer and end up in crazy town?
He plays for Boston, man. Playing for a big market automatically raises the value of any player. I was surprised he wasn’t rated number two. Can’t believe they soiled this list with small-town chumps like McCutchen.
Yeah, Fangraphs has jumped all over a bunch of fancy looking minor-league stats from some kid who just turned 22.
They get so worked up over stuff like these offensive numbers from his last four minor league stops:
.296/.418/.477, 58/40 BB/K, 166 wRC+
.341/.414/.551, 23/17 BB/K, 166 wRC+
.355/.443/.551, 35/20 BB/K, 177 wRC+
.335/.417/.503, 26/30 BB/K, 158 wRC+
I’m not sure what they think about his plus defense at 2B or his 85%+ SB success rate, but they’re just way too crazy about the bum.
Nice.
Also, bear in mind that a cup of coffee isn’t proof he’s gonna be a superstar – but if he failed, it’d indicate he MIGHT not hack it in the bigs. But Succeeding in 1/3 of a full season’s worth of PAs is proof (small proof) that the minor league stats might not be a mirage.
It’s not definitive, but it’s encouraging.
Exactly. His good start in the majors isn’t proof that he’ll succeed in the majors, but it adds yet another data point to the growing body of evidence pointing to a nice MLB future.
Polanco’s last four minor league stops: 146 wRC+, 112 wRC+(deflated due to a .282BABIP), 139 wRC+, 149 wRC+.
The only reason Polanco was left off the list is because of a BABIP of .272 in the MLB, about 80 points below his typical minor league BABIP.
But according to this list I’d rather have Chris Archer than him.
@Jeff You’re arguing that clearly his less than .350 babip’s were bad luck compared to his “true talent” .350 babip’s in the minors? AND that his major league babip should have been .350???
You can’t ignore his lower babip seasons as “bad luck” and pretend his .350+ babip seasons weren’t “good luck.” His true talent is likely somewhere in between. While I think his MLB babip will rise (possibly to around .310-.320), it’s insane to think he will maintain a .350 babip.
Also, you’re ignoring his surprisingly mediocre defense in the outfield and his lack of power. Even if we regress his babip to around .300, he still wouldn’t have performed that well.
My favorite Betts chat reply:
Comment From JJB
Phillies would need to pay home much $ in order for a Hamels-for-Betts swap to work?
12:26
Dave Cameron: All of it. $110 million. And even then, I’m not sure Boston should do it.
If Dave truly means what he said right there, then I know there really IS someone higher on Mookie Betts than I am. Which is saying a lot.
Higher on something anyway.
Among players age 21 and younger, he had the 13th best rookie season (average rWAR and fWAR per 150 games, minimum 200 PA) of all time, despite losing value by playing at an unfamiliar position down the defensive spectrum. The top 30 list of such seasons is pretty stunning; more than two-thirds of them had HOF-caliber careers. And Betts ranks among the handful who had the least prior minor league experience. All this after a minor league career that was pretty stunning: low-A to that rookie season in a two year span, after just one year of short-season ball.
You want scouts? Over at BP, Chris Mellen and Al Skorupa had his tools as 6+ or 7+ potential hit, 7 run, 7 or 7+ potential glove, 5+ potential power.
I think he and Bogaerts are the two best Sox position player prospects since at least Tony Conigliaro.
Betts was 8.4 runs above average with his bat for Boston last year, just ahead of Jacoby Ellsbury and Nick Markakis despite playing less than half a season.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17%2cd
Of course, when a guy leads his last three minor league teams in both OBP and SLG while being the youngest player on the roster, we might expect him to have a bit of talent with the bat.
That 200 PA cut off is awfully convenient.
Not really, make the cutoff 0 PA if you want. The only player who produced more wRAA in less plate appearances was Michael McKenry.
Carlos Correa makes my top 30.
Still no Altuve? All star player on probably the most team friendly contract in the game. What a joke!
Based on your comments for Josh Donaldson, and since the pitchers in that trade were not top prospects; shouldn’t Brett Lawrie be somewhere on this list 40-50.
Watching Perez catch in the post-season, I was shocked at how mediocre his receiving looked for a guy with his defensive tools and reputation. Then I checked the data and discovered that BP/Dan Brooks has his pitch framing at a career -1.1 WAR per 120 games, and that StatCorner for 2014 had him even worse. Even regressing these pitch-framing metrics halfway to zero (just for caution), at Steamer 3.4 – 0.6 = 2.8 WAR, he projects to be considerably less valuable next year than Martin (3.2 + 1.2 = 4.4), or for that matter, Christian Vazquez (1.9 + 1.7 = 3.6). Not all teams are attending to this data, but a good number are. You have him way, way, too high.
My takeaway from all the comments here is that Dave is a homer for every single team in baseball, except when he’s not.
If I was a GM today with a solid 35-year-old middle reliever, I’d offer him to Boston for Mookie Betts.
On basic framework: Xander to the Rockies,Tulo to the Mets, Harvey to the Red Sox. Assume both Mets and Red Sox send some prospects as well.
Who says no? A Red Sox get an young ace. Rockies get a guy they can sell the fans on AND save $100M+, and the Mets get a elite SS to contend in 2015.
If the Mets weren’t hamstrung by the Madoff settlement, I think this could be the core of a legit blockbuster deal. Just not sure they’d take on those $ left on Tulo’s deal because of it.
Say in lieu of a prospect, The Red Sox eat Batolo’s contract?
Interesting.
If nothing else, it would be great to see Colon and Panda attacking the post-game spread together lol.
I wouldn’t see the Sox eating my contract – I tried but it doesn’t taste very good.
Do you seriously think Boston’s going to play Hanley at SS?
There’s no doubt they say no, if only for that reason. Harvey’s good, and while he might be as good at SS as Hanley, he’s not the answer either.
No. They would play Betts at SS freeing up a spot for Victorino in the OF. Once Marrero is ready in maybe 2016, Betts has a spot in the OF.
I’ll quote Al Skorupa before you deny this
” Mookie probably doesn’t grade all *that* far behind Xander at SS. The big difference is arm. Xander’s arm lets him get away with some of his clunky actions and slow jumps at shortstop. Mookie has great range in the infield, but he can’t make the throw from the hole that Xander can”
Alex Wood is more than a year younger than Gray, and has a lower FIP than Gray in only 50 fewer innings. Even if you isolate Wood’s numbers as a starter, he has a lower FIP than Gray. Maybe teams wouldn’t pay for upside the way they would with Gray, because of his pedigree. But has Alex Wood done anything to prove he’s not as valuable as a guy like Gray?
I understand that market perception is a part of this, so I have no problem with Alex Wood being left off the list – he does fly under the radar a bit. But he seems to be every bit as good as some of the other guys on this list, he’s only 23, and he’s cheap.
Wood is criminally underrated, seemingly even by his own team.
It’s the whacky delivery.
“He was the Royals best player this year” he was? Alex Gordan WAR – 6.6, Lorenzo Cain WAR – 4.9
It’s interesting that Dave is so enamored with Cain. The guy had a 380 BABIP last year and his rate stats were very similar to the seasons before. He could easily go back to having a 250/315/400 line and being a sub-three win guy. If he gets fewer defensive opportunities, boom his defense rating drops and he’s like a 2.5 win player.
But Dave likes him a lot. No talk of regression.
Can you really say that Perdroia is expensive?
I’m being a Pirates homer here, but I don’t see how Strasburg should be ranked higher than Starling Marte. (Partly in response to Keri’s column, which had them next to each other and explicitly considered the question.) Strasburg projects half a win better than Marte for next year, and Marte has outperformed him by a big margin for the last two years; and while Marte has injury concerns Strasburg is a pitcher who’s already had TJ. Which might put Strasburg a bit ahead… except he has two pricey arb years left and Marte is on a cheap contract for years. Strasburg would have to be farther ahead of Marte to make up for that contract.
Pitcher #1 is 25 years old, and accrued 5.3 fWAR in 2014 and 3.7 in 2013.
Pitcher #2 is 26 years old, and tallied 4.3 fWAR in 2014 and 3.3 in 2013.
They’re both healthy, and they threw almost exactly the same number of innings over the past two years. Pitcher #1 will make (Austin Powers voice) one million dollars in 2015, then a bit under $4MM in 2016.
Pitcher #2 (arbitration) will be payed roughly $8MM and $12MM in 2015 and 2016 respectively, and then barring a contract extension enter free agency.
Pitcher #1 meanwhile will make $6MM in 2017 and $8.8MM in 2018. Then his team has a pair of options for 2019 and 2020 at $10.5MM apiece.
So how on Heaven or Earth does #2 have more trade value than #1?
definitely and interesting comparison when you remove the names. without spoiling the mystery players for anyone, I can think of 2 main reasons why #2 has more trade value:
– HR/FB… fWAR is based on FIP which doesn’t normalize HR/FB. #2’s HR/FB was over 2.5x higher than #1’s this year. if all else were equal, I don’t think anyone would take #1 over #2 but clearly it’s closer than it looks at first.
– pedigree/name brand value/sexy K numbers. these lead to 2 things: (a) since #1 is over-achieving and #2 is sort of under-achieving relative to expectations, it’s easy to conclude #2 has more upside remaining, and (b) I think it’s hard to make a case that teams would actually pay more for #1 than for #2 just based on these factors alone.
Dave seems to be trying to answer the question of “which players would get the greatest return in a real life trade?” rather than “which players would fetch the greatest return if a Dave Cameron clone was the GM of every team.” I would estimate #2 to be one of the more overrated trade commodities and #1 to be one of the more underrated commodities.
It’s a Dr. Evil voice, not Austin Powers.
Thanks for the responses! And it’s indeed Dr. Evil, of course. Well, as Shrek would say, I was just a cotton-headed ninny muggins.
Anyhow, I’m sure you’re correct in your comments, Josh. There’s a reality/perception schism with Jose Quintana that’s driven by his non-expectations as he progressed through the minors — as well as his 2nd fiddle status with Chris Sale in the same rotation.
I’m not going to be as gracious as you, though, and let Dave and Jonah K. off the hook. (Keri didn’t even list Quintana in his top 50.) I expect guys smarter than I am to tell me subtle things I don’t know about player values relative to costs, rather than gauge industry perceptions. Fact is, Jose’s a roughly top 15-20 pitcher right now, not meaningfully better or worse than Bumgarner, Strasburg, Greinke, and several other profoundly more publicized twirlers.
And Quintana’s contract is a potential boon of nine figures in surplus value over the next 6 years. Say, 3.5 WAR per year, at $7MM per win, that’s $24.5MM X six years, or $147MM. And he’ll make around $40MM. He’s a top 10 trade guy for sure; maybe the very best among all pitchers.
what i find funny about the betts-as-guaranteed-star hype is that bogaerts’ first 213pa this year were significantly better than betts’ 213pa this year, and that didn’t stop xander from crashing the rest of the year and putting his future star status immediately in doubt in most sox fans’ minds. betts could easily do the same at the plate, and he’s not an SS.
all the raving stats comp to other best 21yr old seasons completely miss the point of sample size.
and hey, if you want to see a REALLY impressive ~200pa performance by a 21yr old, check out brett lawrie. you know, the guy who just knocked donaldson 20 spots down this list by getting traded for him.
this
but we get it a lot of R.Sox fanboys on this site.
Lawrie’s debut is a great comp for Betts – more power and a bit less speed/contact hitting, but he sure looked great coming up.
That’s why the one big risk I see with Betts’s future is his growth being slowed by injuries, like what’s happened with Lawrie and Heyward. And of course, he could have growing pains like Bogaerts as the league has a chance to adjust to him.
Your argument is that we should ignore Betts’ numbers because Bogaerts struggled after doing well initially? We should give less credence to Betts numbers, but we shouldn’t ignore them or boost up Bogaerts because we happen to have more information on him.
Projecting prospects is based on probabilities, not actualities. If we’re looking at Bowler A and he gets five strikes in a row, we can create a probability of how good of a bowler I am. If Bowler B gets five strikes and then ten gutter balls, we can create a probability around that. But we don’t mark down Bowler A just because Bowler B performed to the lowest probability based on the outcomes from five strikes in a row. Bowler B is only one outcome and is not a large enough sample to say anything about the original probability. Likewise, if Bowler B got ten strikes in a row, we wouldn’t increase the original probability just because of one outcome that was already accounted for.
my argument is that a) there are countless players who dropped off in a big way after a hot 50gm start to their career and b) most of those comps would be invisible to a data search comparing betts to players who played full rookie seasons.
But there have been something like 3000 players who got 100-300 PA in their rookie seasons. The best seasons by WAR (average fWAR and rWAR) per 150 games:
Brett Lawrie, 2011
Willie McCovey, 1959
Jeff Francoeur, 2005
Mookie Betts, 2014
Babe Ruth, 1915 (OF only)
Joe Mauer, 2004
Salvador Perez, 2011
David Wright, 2004
Jose Reyes, 2003
Adam Dunn, 2001
Of the 9 modern players, only Mauer had fewer ml PA, and only Perez had fewer PA in full-season ball.
Of course, that list is for players ages 21 and younger, of which there have been c. 336 such seasons.
Betts (full MLB season) 213 PAs, 291/368/444, .361 wOBA, 130 wRC+, 12 2B, 5 HR, 21 BB – 31 K
Bogaerts (first 214 PAs), 296/388/425, .365 wOBA, 132 wRC+, 13 2B, 3 HR, 23 BB – 48 K
I contend if Bogaerts got hurt after that small sample size his stock would be dramatically higher. Like Kiley has said prospects need to go through failure for the first time.
The numbers give a good picture, but they don’t tell the whole story. If you watch Betts play, you will see he has an uncanny ability to barrel up on pitches. He reads pitches incredibly well, and has a fast compact swing. He’s rarely fooled and he rarely misses when he swings.
Betts BB/K rates speak to these abilities, but in such a small sample the numbers don’t have strong stock. My eyes tell me that his numbers reflect his true ability, and that his talents will prevent him from going into prolonged slumps.
I will even go one further and say that watching Betts play, I find it easy to imagine his career ending in the hall of fame. Needless to say, I think Betts’ trade value will only continue to rise.
I think it’s clear Betts is a lock for the HOF at this point
His ceiling looks something like a mix of Pedroia and Raines.
Which probably means he’d be as good as you can get without making the HOF….
I agree
didn’t Boegarts also have like a .400 BABIP at that point?
Beat me to it.
That wasn’t Bogaerts first 214 PA’s in his career, he had 50 less impressive PA’s in 2013. And if you compare there numbers this year like you did, their BABIP’s were Bogaerts 385 and Betts 323. That explains why they were similar. Betts was more impressive and sustainable.
And in their first career 213-214 PA’s…..
Betts OPS-.812
Bogaerts-.736
xander topped out at around .860ops at around the 250pa or so mark this year, iirc.
X.Bogarts #20 ?
“Donaldson is an elite player making a fraction of his worth with four years of team control. By outside knowledge, he should be much higher than this, but he just got traded for far less than we all thought he’d go for. Maybe the A’s screwed up”
Ain’t no maybe about it. They screwed the pooch BAD with that trade.
yeah, dave would do himself a favor by standing behind his rankings and calling out gms for bad trades, instead of instantly reneging on his rankings when a gm makes a conflicting move. doesn’t inspire much confidence in his rankings when he does this.
especially when he doesn’t even consider other possibilities – like, say, that maybe lawrie and barreto are two grade A young talents that he underrates – but instead just panics and rewrites his rankings.
and i can’t help but think dave would have stuck with his rankings if a less respected gm made that trade.
Somebody agrees with me! Could have used you guys backing me up higher in the comments section.
Yea I agree, Dave was pretty impressionable in this instance.
Age 17
F.Barreto (Rk): 194pa, 6.7bb%, 21.6k%, .230iso, .375babip, 161wrc+
X.Bogaerts (Rk): 280pa, 10.7bb%, 13.2k%, .109iso, .353babip, 145wrc+
F.Barreto (Rk+): 58pa, 3.4bb%, 24.1k%, .130iso, .275babip, 71wrc+
Age 18
F.Barreto (A-): 328pa, 7.9bb%, 19.5k%, .170iso, .378babip, 141wrc+
X.Bogaerts (A): 296pa, 8.4bb%, 24.0k%, .249iso, .291babip, 123wrc+
Age 19
X.Bogaerts (AA): 97pa, 1.0bb%, 21.6k%, .272iso, .373babip, 159wrc+
X.Bogaerts (A+): 435pa, 9.9bb%, 19.5k%, .203iso, .353babip, 144wrc+
B.Lawrie (A): 423pa, 9.7bb%, 16.5k%, .180iso, .302babip, 124wrc+
M.Betts (A-): 292pa, 11.0bb%, 10.3k%, .040iso, .298babip, 103wrc+
B.Lawrie (AA): 53pa, 0.0bb%, 26.4k%, .038iso, .368babip, 63wrc+
Age 20
X.Bogaerts (AAA): 256pa, 10.9bb%, 17.2k%, .169iso, .320babip, 133wrc+
X.Bogaerts (AA): 259pa, 13.5bb%, 19.7k%, .192iso, .378babip, 153wrc+
M.Betts (A+): 211pa, 10.9bb%, 8.1k%, .211iso, .346babip, 166wrc+
M.Betts (A): 340pa, 17.1bb%, 11.8k%, .181iso, .322babip, 160wrc+
B.Lawrie (AA): 609pa, 7.7bb%, 19.4k%, .164iso, .350babip, 117wrc+
X.Bogaerts (MLB): 50pa, 10.0bb%, 26.0k%, .114iso, .323babip, 86wrc+, +0.2df
Age 21
B.Lawrie (MLB): 171pa, 9.4bb%, 18.1k%, .287iso, .318babip, 157wrc+, +5.5df
M.Betts (MLB): 213pa, 9.9bb%, 14.6k%, .153iso, .327babip, 140wrc+, +0.6df
B.Lawrie (AAA): 329pa, 7.9bb%, 16.1k%, .308iso, .383babip, 163wrc+
M.Betts (AAA): 211pa, 12.3bb%, 14.2k%, .168iso, .380babip, 158wrc+
M.Betts (AA): 258pa, 13.8bb%, 7.9k%, .196iso, .366babip, 177wrc+
X.Bogaerts (MLB): 594pa, 6.6bb%, 23.2k%, .123iso, .296babip, 82wrc+, -4.8df
Age 22
B.Lawrie (MLB): 536pa, 6.2bb%, 16.0k%, .132iso, .311babip, 97wrc+, +6.3df
Age 23
B.Lawrie (MLB): 448pa, 6.8bb%, 15.4k%, .142iso, .280babip, 93wrc+, +0.1df
Age 24
B.Lawrie (MLB): 282pa, 5.7bb%, 17.4k%, .174iso, .260babip, 101wrc+, +5.0df
Now there’s no argument that lawrie/barreto are as valuable as betts/bogaerts at this moment, but there is an argument that at the same ages, these have all been similar level performers, with similar upside. and even then, a guy like lawrie may have had his rep tarnished, but remember he never has had a year anywhere near as bad as bogaerts just had, was better than betts at 21, and has elite defense while neither betts nor bogaerts realistically projects to have that.
i think we can all agree that it would be ludicrous for the sox to trade betts/bogaerts for donaldson…..but is it really a stretch to think that Beane saw this as as an opportunity to grab two betts/bogaerts level talents, just a couple years outside of the prospect sweet spot (i.e. with a full milb track record but without much taint of mlb failure yet) that betts/bogaerts are in now ?
If that’s your argument then 19 year old with a good season in the low minors can be considered betts/bogaerts level talents, just a couple years outside of the prospect sweet spot.
Maybe Beane is more sure of Barreto’s future success over other prospects in similar range, but the consensus is that Barreto is something like a top 75~100 level prospect (50~75 level if you’re more bullish on him), and it’s disingenuous to argue that he’s suddenly at betts/bogaerts level just because Beane traded a elite-level asset for him. Barreto could easily flame out as soon as next year.
then *every* 19 year old
I already said it would be ludicrous to trade bogaerts/betts for donaldson.
Lawrie/barreto could be significantly lesser value – despite their similarity at the same ages – and still be a good enough return that donaldson shouldn’t fall 20 spots on this list.
I’m kind of with everdiso on this course of thought. Maybe not so much on Barreto being a sure thing because he hasn’t gotten past low A ball yet, but he’s done great already at a super young age (kind of like Adames who went in the Price deal). But I was surprised that the Jays parted with Lawrie simply because he’s still young but has upside if he can shake off the injuries (like Heyward). I didn’t see the deal as being atrocious for Oakland by any means, though the Jays are smart on doubling down on the next few years with the core they have now.
And even if the deal WAS a crappy return for Donaldson, I don’t think Dave should have downgraded his trade value ranking based on that “evidence”. Especially if Oakland was willing to trade Donaldson for less than full value because of extenuating circumstances with Beane.
I don’t think you have to admit anything with regards to Donaldson Dave.
He is worth more than Billy beane traded him for. Even if he’s only a 3 WAR player next year and you drop him .5 WAR per year from there, he’s STILL worth more than Beane traded him for. Billy screws up sometimes. This is one of those times.
A conversation that will never happen:
Terry Ryan: Rick, we need some help in the rotation. Is Quintana available?
Rick Hahn: Yes, you just need to give me Buxton and some more stuff. Because Quintana is more valuable than Buxton, Buxton alone is not going to be enough to get this deal done.
I realize the Twins would never do this trade based on their team situation, but would any GM in the game trade Buxton for Jose Quintana (or about half of the guys listed above him on the list, for that matter)? If Xander Bogaerts and his basically replacement-level production is the 20th best value (having already wasted some of his cheap time), I don’t see how a GM would trade Buxton when he projects to be as good as Bogaerts with the bat but adds in elite speed and elite defense in CF.
Hi Dave/Jeff- I’ve been doing a lot of thinking lately about Hamels trade value lately, particularly in the context of a potential Sox-Phillies trade. The estimates you guys have been giving for his trade value have been significantly lower than anything I’ve seen from anyone else. It’s seems to me like the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I was really hoping Dave would address this issue in his trade value update. Since he didn’t, I thought I’d take some time to chime in. I realize that this comment is WAY too long and you’ll probably never respond to any of it; but I wanted to put it out there just in case.
One the one hand, you’re obviously right that giving up elite talent AND taking on major money would be insane. I completely agree with Dave’s statement from the 11/26 chat: The only way Sox should even consider swapping Betts for Hamels straight-up is if the Phillies covered the full $110 million. And, personally, I wouldn’t do it even then. Betts has every chance to be just as good of a player as Hamels over the next 5 years and elite, up-the-middle position players are much more scarce/expensive than elite SPs. From my perspective, this same principle holds true for Bogaerts and possibly Swihart as well.
The idea of giving up major talent for Hamels seems even more ridiculous when you consider the current market. If the Sox are willing to take on $25 million in AAV for an elite SP, then they should either pony up for Lester (or Scherzer) or wait until next year’s ridiculous FA pitching class (Price, Zimmerman, Cueto, Greinke, etc.).
Having said that, I do understand the counter-arguments: The best of those 2015 FAs are going to get at least 6-7 year deals at an AAV in the same range as Hamels. And, depending on whom Hamels is traded to, he’ll only require a 4 or 5 year commitment. There’s a ton of value in having 2-3 fewer years on the back-end of contract that lasts into a pitcher’s mid-to-late 30s. Furthermore, when you compare Hamels to the other trade options out there he looks even better: who the hell would want to give up the 2-3 top-10 prospects that it would take to pry Price or Zimmerman, only watch them spurn your 7-year $160 million extension offers and test the open market? I’d rather offer give up 1-2 extra prospects for 5y/$110 of Hamels than take that kind of a gamble.
Relating all of this back to the Sox’ context: The bottom line is that they really want to be WS contenders in 2015 and need at least 2 frontline starters in order to make that a realistic possibility. Ideally, they’ll get one of Lester or Scherzer (please not Shields!), who will only cost them money and a possibly 3rd-round pick. But even if they do get one of those guys, they should and will be extremely active in the trade market. And among pitchers who are known to be available, Hamels is probably the best combination of skill level and years under contract. So, how much should they be willing to give up for him?
In my opinion, the Sox absolutely should not give up any of their potentially elite, up-the-middle young guys (Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Vazquez). These guys just mean too much to the Sox; both in 2015 and in the future. I also think they should extremely hesitant to give up any of their high-ceiling guys in the low minors (Margot, Devers, Chavis, Ball, etc.). Same goes for the high-minors SP prospects that have top-of-the-rotation potential (Owens, Rodriguez). The Red Sox have the personnel to make virtually any trade they want without including any of these players. Consider this: By my count, they have at least 13 prospects and big-league growth assets that share the following characteristics:
1) They are either big league ready now or project to be within the next year
2) They project to be at least league average at their respective positions
3) Assuming the Sox add 2-3 SPs this offseason, they will be completely blocked on the current roster to the point that they would likely be forced to start the year in the minors.
Here are the guys I’m talking about: De la Rosa, Johnson, Webster, Barnes, Workman, Ranaudo, Escobar, Middlebrooks, Holt, Bradley Jr., Marrero, Cecchini, Coyle.
The Sox’ offer for Hamels should start with 5-6 of these players. I’d even be willing to go up to 7-8 of them if the Phillies cover 15-20% of Hamels’ contract. If they want to bring any one of Owens/Rodriguez/Margot/Devers into the conversation, they’ll need to cover to at least 40% and they’ll only get 4 -5 of the other guys.
From the Sox perspective this kind of a deal makes sense because 1) they really don’t need any of the players next year or beyond (although they should definitely keep some of them for depth purposes), 2) stashing them all in triple-A is a high-risk, low-reward proposition: they have the greater potential to diminish their trade value (via injury or underperformance) than they do to enhance it.
And I know I’m just a biased Sox fan, but if I were a team looking to rebuild, this is exactly the kind of deal I would want to make. These guys may not have high ceilings but there is some upside there. And the fact they are all in triple-A or higher means that 1) there is lower risk that they will totally bust and 2) whoever trades for them will likely know within the next 2 years or so which of them fit into the long term plan and which do not. Not to mention the fact that their cumulative annual cost should be about 20 million less that Cole Hamels’ for at least the next 3-4 years.
So basically, I’m proposing the Sox trade from depth and offer quantity over quality. Do you guys think it’s an overpay? I know the RAJ probably doesn’t think it’s nearly enough. Seems like a happy medium to me.
Lol at this list. You’re telling me that none of Lagares, d’Arnaud, Wheeler, deGrom, or Syndergaard have more value than Jose Quintana? Quintana’s 5.3 WAR is a good symbol for the many problems with pitcher fWAR:
Overvaluing AL pitchers. AL pitchers accumulated 242.3 WAR compared to 187.7 for NL pitchers, 29% more without an explanation as to why that is the case.
Using runs park factors for a FIP-based ERA.
Using FIP as a basis for WAR when FIP only accounts for 30% of balls in play and doesn’t normalize HR/FB%. bbFIP is a much better basis for WAR.