2014 World Series Game Six Live Blog
| 7:59 |
: The season either ends tonight, or we get a winner-take-all Game 7 tomorrow. Drama!
|
| 7:59 |
: Royals
|
| 8:00 |
: Jeff Sullivan and I have the action tonight. Let’s get this party started.
|
| 8:03 |
: Interesting to see all the notes that both managers are planning on early hooks for their starters. Buster Olney says Herrera could come in as early as the 3rd inning, while Bumgarner’s availability tomorrow means Petit pitches again today.
|
| 8:03 |
: When it’s win-or-go-home, roles go out the window, I guess.
|
| 8:04 |
: Baseball chat!
|
| 8:04 |
Predictions? |
| 8:05 |
: I’ll take the Royals, since Yost is apparently willing to get 6 outs from Davis/Holland if need be.
|
| 8:05 |
: Innings 1-3
|
| 8:05 |
: I’ll take the Royals, since there’s something I want to do in Portland tomorrow night so I expect to not be able to do it
|
| 8:06 |
If this game goes stupid innings, would either team actually let a position player pitch? |
| 8:06 |
: Not unless they just ran out of pitchers and the last guy was physically able to keep going.
|
| 8:06 |
: physically unable.
|
| 8:06 |
: Who would be the best position player pitching?
|
| 8:06 |
: I’ll say Escobar
|
| 8:06 |
: Posey?
|
| 8:06 |
: Hope we find out!
|
| 8:07 |
FG odds have the Royals at 26.3% chance of winning this series. Any reason to believe it’s greater or less than that? |
| 8:07 |
: Not by more than a few percentage points
|
| 8:07 |
: Two 50/50 shots, basically.
|
| 8:07 |
Belt was drafted as a pitcher I think? |
| 8:07 |
: Yeah, he was.
|
| 8:08 |
: He never pitched anywhere professionally
|
| 8:08 |
: No, but he was highly thought of as a pitching prospect.
|
| 8:08 |
: James Loney was the same way.
|
| 8:09 |
: Really upsetting to see the words written on Ventura’s hat
|
| 8:10 |
: Gotta be even tougher for a guy his age, at a similar point in his career.
|
| 8:10 |
: Seems like an awful lot of people in the game were at least fairly close with Taveras
|
| 8:10 |
: …boy was Blanco ever beneath that fastball
|
| 8:10 |
: He didn’t even really get that close.
|
| 8:11 |
: Somehow he seemed ahead of it?
|
| 8:11 |
I didn’t know they’re allowed to write stuff on their hats? Ventura was evidently extremely close to OT. |
| 8:11 |
: Maybe white’s permitted. Sweat stains are white anyway
|
| 8:11 |
: That looked like a hit off the bat.
|
| 8:11 |
: But Royals D.
|
| 8:11 |
: Playing hurt!
|
| 8:11 |
: And Dave is ahead of me a few seconds
|
| 8:11 |
He overran it 🙂 |
| 8:12 |
What’s wrong with Lorenzo? |
| 8:12 |
: Lower body injuries
|
| 8:12 |
: Everyone’s hurt but he’s a little extra hurt
|
| 8:12 |
Stingy low strike zone… |
| 8:12 |
: In that there is actually a bottom edge, unlike the last few games.
|
| 8:12 |
It doesn’t seem to impact his defense though. |
| 8:12 |
: Nor his sprinting speed, yet
|
| 8:13 |
: Looks like Posey missed one there.
|
| 8:13 |
: 3-1 fastball down the middle.
|
| 8:13 |
What to make of Posey’s recent lack of extra base hits? |
| 8:13 |
: I don’t like that you’re ahead of me!
|
| 8:14 |
: Sorry. How far ahead?
|
| 8:14 |
: I’ll type slower.
|
| 8:14 |
: 2-3 seconds
|
| 8:14 |
: Okay, I’ll buffer myself.
|
| 8:14 |
I’m almost certain that the players aren’t allowed to write things on their uniforms. But I can’t imagine MLB enforcing this. They’d appear to be ogres. |
| 8:14 |
: Fining Ventura for this would be abominable PR.
|
| 8:15 |
: NFL would do it
|
| 8:15 |
The NFL would fine him and not think twice |
| 8:15 |
: Agree with David S!
|
| 8:15 |
NFL actually is trying to fine him. |
| 8:15 |
: I laughed.
|
| 8:16 |
: Of note — Ventura topped out at 97 in that inning. So either he’s showing some restraint and not overthrowing from adrenaline, or he’s a little cranky again
|
| 8:16 |
: I said on Jonah Keri’s podcast today that the combination of low postseason K% and leaving a start with shoulder issues scared me a bit.
|
| 8:17 |
: Yeah, it’s crazy that he’s back. Herrera, too. Things could’ve been so much worse for them this month
|
| 8:17 |
They finally swapped Infante and Moose! My OCD really wanted it to be alternating L-R throughout. So neat, so clean! |
| 8:17 |
: 9-1 are both right-handed
|
| 8:18 |
They need to find some way to piss Peavey off |
| 8:18 |
: Regular baseball seems to do it
|
| 8:18 |
: Maybe by misspelling his name?
|
| 8:18 |
More like “Peevey” amirite? |
| 8:18 |
do i watch game 7 if i need to be up at 3:30 AM the next morning? |
| 8:18 |
: You always watch Game 7
|
| 8:19 |
Apparently, Tavares was going to spend time at Yordano Ventura’s house this winter as soon as the World Series was over. I can’t imagine going to work with so much grief in my heart. |
| 8:19 |
: For some people this is the best possible way to heal
|
| 8:19 |
: How in the heck did Aoki hit that
|
| 8:19 |
: Weird swing didn’t work twice.
|
| 8:19 |
: (Did I delay enough?)
|
| 8:19 |
: haha what was that
|
| 8:19 |
Where is Marlins Man? |
| 8:20 |
: I can’t possibly imagine giving a shit
|
| 8:20 |
What could possibly happen in Game 6 that would provoke enough public interest that Game 7 out-rates Thursday Night Football this week? Anything? |
| 8:20 |
: No
|
| 8:20 |
: Maybe one of the managers putting a bounty on another guy’s head
|
| 8:21 |
Football game during God Bless America |
| 8:21 |
Aoki’s a free agent after the season, right? What kind of deal do you see him getting? |
| 8:21 |
: huh. 2/15?
|
| 8:21 |
: Crowdsourcing results coming tomorrow!
|
| 8:21 |
: What a deal he’s been
|
| 8:22 |
Is there still time to get in my crowdsourcing? When is the deadline to get mine in? |
| 8:22 |
: Deadline has passed.
|
| 8:22 |
: Feels like it’s taken a minute between Peavy pitches for some reason here
|
| 8:23 |
Any chance Aoki returns to Japan? Seems like it’s not really worth it to stay at 2/15ish when he could prob get a healthy portion of that in NPB. |
| 8:23 |
: He’s channeling Luke Gregerson.
|
| 8:23 |
: Huh?
|
| 8:23 |
: Why would…
|
| 8:23 |
Can you imagine getting as visibly angry at your place of work as some pitchers do at theirs? |
| 8:23 |
Aoki’s probably over here in the first place because he wants the challenge of playing at the highest level. |
| 8:24 |
: I watched Carlos Beltran slide into Felix Hernandez from my desk at my old biotech and beat the crap out of my cubicle wall
|
| 8:24 |
: Kind of forgot where I was
|
| 8:24 |
I can’t even imagine wearing short sleeves and a cup to work like they do |
| 8:24 |
I cursed at AutoCAD pretty loud today when it crashed and I lost a bunch of work |
| 8:25 |
Does it seem like the royals have gotten gunshy about running? |
| 8:25 |
: The Orioles were great about managing the running game, and the Giants are no slouches themselves
|
| 8:25 |
: Ishikawa takes pride in his defense.
|
| 8:25 |
: Royals watering down the outfield
|
| 8:25 |
: Cain held when he was getting the go ahead sign. Interesting.
|
| 8:26 |
: WILL THAT COST THE ROYALS THE GAME?!??!?!
|
| 8:26 |
Very late go sign |
| 8:26 |
HR was right about the bad positioning of the 3B coach. |
| 8:26 |
Is/how is catcher blocking quantified in runs? Seems like its value is so context dependent as to be hard to quantify reliably. |
| 8:26 |
: We know the value of extra bases
|
| 8:27 |
And Cain was looking at the ball almost the whole time. He may have picked up the signal if he had his eye on the coach instead. |
| 8:27 |
Will Major Leaguers get chewed out by the manager for ignoring base coaches signs, or is the presumption that they’re recommendations and the final decision is best left to the player? |
| 8:27 |
: I’m sure they’ll ask him why he stopped. If he has a good reason, it will be fine.
|
| 8:28 |
: I’d probably trust Cain’s judgment over the coach anyway
|
| 8:28 |
which defense is better. 3 Michael Morses, or 2 Cains |
| 8:28 |
: it’s probably 3 Morses but I don’t want it to be
|
| 8:29 |
: About the question on pitch blocking: http://www.hardballtimes.co…
|
| 8:29 |
: I’m not sure it is.
|
| 8:29 |
: It’s close
|
| 8:29 |
: I have no mathematical way of trying to solve this
|
| 8:29 |
: The problem for the 2 Cains is the lines. They would be screwed on any ball hit down the line.
|
| 8:29 |
I’m suffering from a herniated disc and I have a new found respect for athletes that play through injury. |
| 8:30 |
: Back injuries are funny and pathetic until you have one
|
| 8:30 |
The Giants like keeping their WS teams intact, but they can’t keep Morse for another year in LF, right? |
| 8:30 |
: He’ll be someone’s 1B next year.
|
| 8:31 |
Morse -> Brewers |
| 8:31 |
: I could see that.
|
| 8:31 |
: If the Padres are done with Alonso at any point…
|
| 8:32 |
I have to take my son to basketball practice. Should I follow the game on Gameday or just follow the live blog? |
| 8:32 |
: Live blog probably won’t give you enough gameplay details
|
| 8:32 |
Am I the best defensive outfielder you’ve seen play? |
| 8:32 |
: 2009 Franklin Gutierrez, dang it
|
| 8:33 |
: Well that was well-placed
|
| 8:33 |
That hit was the Hunter Penceiest hit ever. |
| 8:33 |
: Best possible way to hit that pitch
|
| 8:33 |
: That at-bat went 99 – 93 – 94. Curious
|
| 8:34 |
: How long has Ventura been cutting the ball?
|
| 8:34 |
Is Pence the fastest guy not thought of as a speed guy, and also the guy with the most power who’s not thought of as a power guy? |
| 8:35 |
: Probably. His top speeds on the bases have been equal to guys like Cain’s.
|
| 8:35 |
: That was embarrassing
|
| 8:35 |
: Pablo Sandoval, hitting coach
|
| 8:36 |
: Interesting route, but he gets there.
|
| 8:36 |
: How does he do that
|
| 8:36 |
: What a fun player to watch
|
| 8:36 |
: Glad he’s not on my favorite team, but he is not dull
|
| 8:36 |
: I don’t think I’d enjoy watching him every day.
|
| 8:37 |
: Only on a team that’s already bad
|
| 8:37 |
Would you let Hunter Pence be alone with your children? He seems like he might like to eat them. |
| 8:37 |
: I think he seems nice
|
| 8:37 |
: He’s rich. He’d probably buy them neat things.
|
| 8:37 |
: Yeah. He’d be a wonderful babysitter!
|
| 8:38 |
Even tradionalistas, as Tom Tango calls them, have to realize that it’s silly to show a player’s World Series batting average, right? |
| 8:38 |
: Frtios chilli pizza immediately followed by “Better Ingredients. Better Pizza.”
|
| 8:38 |
: Depends what you’re showing the numbers for. If you want to indicate some probability of a hit, it’s silly. If you just want to show something recent, then, whatever
|
| 8:38 |
Fritos Chili Pizza? I feel like I’m going to be sick. |
| 8:38 |
: That’s how that pizza was invented.
|
| 8:39 |
: It’s just a Frito pie on a pizza. It’s stupid but I’m sure it tastes fine
|
| 8:39 |
: Like, a chorizo/black bean pizza is amazing
|
| 8:39 |
: Chorizo is good. Black beans are good.
|
| 8:39 |
: Fritos are not, and I’m betting Papa Johns chili sucks too.
|
| 8:39 |
: Agree, but I bet you could make an edible version at home
|
| 8:40 |
: While we’re talking about food, that gelato that’s $10 to ship? A Salt & Straw pint from a few blocks away is $9.
|
| 8:40 |
What would Morse’s UZR/150 be right now if he went back to his original position of SS? |
| 8:40 |
: Gotta love capitalism.
|
| 8:40 |
: -all of the WAR
|
| 8:41 |
Should baseball be concerned with low playoff ratings or shoud it just keep harvesting the gane’s popularity on a local level? |
| 8:41 |
: Baseball is making record revenues. World Series ratings are mostly irrelevant.
|
| 8:41 |
: That was smoked.
|
| 8:42 |
: Peavy getting smoked, but he did this last start too.
|
| 8:42 |
: And the Giants bullpen gets warm.
|
| 8:42 |
: Okay so actually *that’s* how you hit that pitch down and away
|
| 8:43 |
hot take: the i don’t think this game is ending 0-0 |
| 8:43 |
I find chorizo far too greasy. Is something wrong with me? |
| 8:43 |
: soyrizo is good
|
| 8:44 |
On one hand, the BT Sport broadcast isn’t saddling me with the ever-annoying Joe Buck…..but on the other hand, they are saddling me with the ever-annoying Rick Sutcliffe. |
| 8:44 |
: Looked like Belt should have gotten that.
|
| 8:44 |
: Sutcliffe is the worst
|
| 8:44 |
: #lineupmagic
|
| 8:44 |
: He mistimed the dive.
|
| 8:44 |
: Mound visit already
|
| 8:44 |
: Took an extra step, it looked like.
|
| 8:44 |
: Not a bad pitch. Pitch before was a bad pitch
|
| 8:45 |
: Yeah, extra step, and dove too late. Not an easy play, but he should have made that.
|
| 8:45 |
: Reverse-line Donaldson play
|
| 8:46 |
: Awful swing by Infante. That wasn’t close.
|
| 8:46 |
Is there a second-time-through-the-World Series penalty? |
| 8:46 |
: You’d think a hurt Infante would swing less often than usual
|
| 8:46 |
: Wonder when the last time is that Javier Lopez was warming in the second inning
|
| 8:47 |
: Infante is getting himself out.
|
| 8:47 |
: Brutal at-bat, Omar.
|
| 8:47 |
: Oh god, that was as bad as the Alcides Escobar strikeout from Game 1
|
| 8:48 |
: Maybe worse!
|
| 8:48 |
: Same pitch four times in a row
|
| 8:48 |
I don’t have shoes on and I’ve had 3 beers and I could’ve had a better AB |
| 8:49 |
: Bad pitch, good result. Escobar swung through a meatball.
|
| 8:50 |
: Ehhh, a little too far away to be a meatball
|
| 8:50 |
: Not a good inning for Brandon Belt.
|
| 8:50 |
: That was…
|
| 8:50 |
: That was something, all right
|
| 8:50 |
: These kinds of plays are the worst way to lose.
|
| 8:51 |
: Like the Matt Adams inning a few weeks ago
|
| 8:51 |
The very rare case where sliding into first was the right play. |
| 8:51 |
Mound visit seems premature given that they’re basically being BABIPed to death, not that Peavy is pitching bad. |
| 8:51 |
To be fair, plays like that are how the Giants got here in the first place. |
| 8:51 |
: Not just about correcting bad pitching; also about calming a guy down. Bad hits are frustrating and Peavy runs high-temper
|
| 8:52 |
: I’d have had Lopez in here.
|
| 8:52 |
: You need this out.
|
| 8:52 |
: MIght not want to use him on a guy without much of a platoon split. I don’t know
|
| 8:53 |
: Lopez’s platoon split overrides Aoki’s, I think.
|
| 8:53 |
: Both, of course, are factors
|
| 8:53 |
One wonders if Peavy is 100% healthy here, since even if reports say he is, that doesn’t mean it’s the case. |
| 8:53 |
: I don’t think he’s ever 100% healthy
|
| 8:53 |
Peavy is done after this right? |
| 8:53 |
: Absolutely.
|
| 8:54 |
: That’s probably called a strike if the count isn’t 0-2.
|
| 8:54 |
is there any data to show when balls are more likely to be called strikes? like the comment you just made? |
| 8:54 |
: Really trying hard to elevate a fastball here and he’s not elevating enough
|
| 8:54 |
: Yeah, the zone changes by count.
|
| 8:55 |
: Shrinks with 2 strikes, grows in 3-0/3-1 situations.
|
| 8:56 |
: Same thing. Trying to go high, didn’t go high enough. Like five times in that at-bat
|
| 8:56 |
: So why stick with Peavy against the LHB if you’re going to pull him with the RHB coming up?
|
| 8:56 |
: Second time Bochy’s done that in the series
|
| 8:57 |
Peavey has stood near the mound on every hit. That throw nearly got by Posey. |
| 8:57 |
: Royals win expectancy up to 83%.
|
| 8:57 |
| 8:59 |
Dave: I asked this to someone else the other day, but that WP model assumes run environment of regular season, right? If so, shouldn’t it be even higher for this postseason game (lower run env. usually)? |
| 8:59 |
: Yeah, but environment isn’t that much lower.
|
| 8:59 |
Would you add a couple ticks to that Royals WE, given their bullpen? (Man it’d be cool if you had customized WE for teams during the WS.) |
| 8:59 |
: It makes only very small differences to the WE%
|
| 8:59 |
: Yeah, you could bump it up a little bit, but still not going to change much.
|
| 8:59 |
Why has Petit not started over Peavy or Vogelsong? |
| 9:00 |
: Because he just pitched two days ago?
|
| 9:00 |
: I think he means during the playoffs
|
| 9:01 |
I would think the Giants’ bullpen now is gonna be a bit worn out for game 7 if this stays close |
| 9:01 |
: Adrenaline will get them over anything
|
| 9:01 |
: Would be interesting to see at what point Bochy would punt today and play for tomorrow.
|
| 9:01 |
: If this gets to 5-0 or 6-0, maybe then we get 3 innings of Hunter Strickland.
|
| 9:01 |
: 6+ run deficit in the 6th+ inning
|
| 9:02 |
: And Strickland, also, isn’t bad!
|
| 9:02 |
HanRam to the yanks? |
| 9:02 |
: Have to ask, why would you bring this up in a world series chat?
|
| 9:02 |
extended Strickland over extended Lincecum? |
| 9:02 |
: If you’re punting, you want Lincecum for an inning or two tomorrow.
|
| 9:02 |
Does seeing lots of pitches in an AB make a significant difference in the outcome? |
| 9:03 |
: I believe hitters get better results as plate appearances get longer and longer
|
| 9:03 |
: This is some kind of big inning
|
| 9:03 |
: Not over yet. But headed that direction.
|
| 9:03 |
: One ball hit with real authority
|
| 9:03 |
Game over |
| 9:03 |
KC must have made same sacrifice to BABIP Gods that they did before the Orioles series… |
| 9:03 |
Giants getting a big ol’ taste of their own “crappily hit balls falling for hits” medicine. |
| 9:04 |
So Giants will get crushed and go into game 7 with Hudson tomorrow and no Petit |
| 9:04 |
: They have Bumgarner tomorrow.
|
| 9:04 |
Just got here, is Bumgarner available tonight? |
| 9:04 |
: They’re saving him
|
| 9:05 |
why did Giants start peavy in game 2/5 in stead of hudson? wouldn’t you prefer to have peavy for one game in AT&T park more? |
| 9:05 |
: Hudson was pretty bad in the second half.
|
| 9:06 |
: Not sure I’ve ever seen a time-out with a pitch AND a swing
|
| 9:06 |
: Yeah, me either.
|
| 9:06 |
: That was pretty great. And it was a hit!
|
| 9:06 |
How many pitches could Bumgarner go, realistically, in a Game 7? |
| 9:06 |
: ~50ish.
|
| 9:07 |
Does Jeff get paid overtime for these extra chats? |
| 9:07 |
: I just do my other work worse
|
| 9:07 |
: Haha.
|
| 9:07 |
: This is hilarious.
|
| 9:07 |
: Unbelievable
|
| 9:08 |
: You can’t predict baseball because baseball has a mental disorder
|
| 9:08 |
So how does that show up on the field trackers? A 6-inch double? |
| 9:08 |
NotGraphs lives another day!!! |
| 9:09 |
A very very Royals inning |
| 9:09 |
: In fairness, also a very Giants inning, if they were the ones scoring
|
| 9:09 |
: They’ve had this coming
|
| 9:09 |
Still a lot of game left |
| 9:09 |
: probably four hours’ worth for some reason
|
| 9:10 |
Royals chances to win it all at 50 % yet? |
| 9:10 |
: probably about on the nose
|
| 9:10 |
: So when do we just call this a night and say see you tomorrow?
|
| 9:10 |
: Whenever you like! I’ve already chatted three hours today!
|
| 9:10 |
NO CAMERON YOU MAKE SULLIVAN WORK |
| 9:10 |
COUNTRY BREAKFAST |
| 9:11 |
Time to talk about ice cream again |
| 9:11 |
: Or just eat some
|
| 9:11 |
: That quieted a lot of the people asking about starting Petit
|
| 9:11 |
: Hey, Belt makes a play.
|
| 9:11 |
: A blowout at least makes things better for bullpen health tomorrow
|
| 9:12 |
oh yeah there was only 1 out |
| 9:12 |
Pull Ventura now? Save him for tomorrow? Surely Duffy can finish this. |
| 9:12 |
: No way he’s able to come back tomorrow on 0 days rest after having a shoulder problem two weeks ago.
|
| 9:12 |
: better to just have Duffy tomorrow
|
| 9:13 |
This series has been awesome. |
| 9:13 |
: one game decided by fewer than five runs
|
| 9:13 |
: sooooo
|
| 9:14 |
Do you now pull Petit so you have him tomorrow? |
| 9:14 |
: Probably have Lincecum go in the third
|
| 9:15 |
: Liberty just went outside and took a dump, or as we call it around here, a Peavy.
|
| 9:15 |
: That’s also what they call it in October in San Diego!
|
| 9:15 |
So um, how about HanRam to the, uh, Yanks was it? |
| 9:15 |
: General baseball chat!
|
| 9:15 |
: Hanley Ramirez to New York for 10/252!
|
| 9:15 |
: Fair warning: I have a Fox piece to write tonight, so I might make you do this yourself in the not too distant future.
|
| 9:16 |
: Wait, there’s a cooking show with children?
|
| 9:16 |
: Why are you so unkind to me
|
| 9:16 |
Wait, they’re cooking children? |
| 9:16 |
Can I just say #MarlinsMan is possibly my favorite thing about this postseason? |
| 9:16 |
: This isn’t new, though. He’s done this before
|
| 9:17 |
Royals go HDH 7-9 even if it’s 6-0, right? |
| 9:17 |
: Hah, I hadn’t seen Belt fell down at the end of that bad play.
|
| 9:17 |
: Actually I doubt it? Not unless they need to
|
| 9:17 |
: I’m not sure he could have done more things wrong tehre.
|
| 9:17 |
: Two minutes please, just knocked over a glass of water
|
| 9:18 |
Is Ventura allowed to write on his hat? |
| 9:18 |
“Fielder’s Choice” is being generous. I don’t think baseball has an acronym for “Fielder’s OH GOD WHAT IS HAPPENING” |
| 9:18 |
: They need a new designation.
|
| 9:18 |
: Fielding Brain Fart.
|
| 9:18 |
FOOTBLAN? |
| 9:18 |
Fielding Flub |
| 9:18 |
A juniors game I once played featured the official scorer just writing “Lots of Errors” in the little box |
| 9:18 |
fielder’s bad choice |
| 9:19 |
on track for a brisk 5-hour, 9 inning game |
| 9:19 |
Tomorrow’s Royals pitchers….Herrera, Davis, Holland for 3 innings each. How awesome/insane would that be? |
| 9:19 |
: Probably a little too aggressive. 2 each.
|
| 9:19 |
kind of amazing that Jeremy Guthrie is going to start Game 7 of the World Series |
| 9:20 |
What is the Giants WE atm? |
| 9:20 |
: 3%
|
| 9:21 |
: This is an example of how pitchers suck at strikes
|
| 9:21 |
: Absolutely no reason to not be pounding teh zone right now
|
| 9:21 |
: I can’t think of a scenario where you want to throw strikes more.
|
| 9:21 |
Lance Lynn batting. Throw more strikes. |
| 9:21 |
: Yusmeiro Petit batting
|
| 9:22 |
How long does an inning have to go for it to be like sitting through a rain delay for the starter |
| 9:22 |
: Bedard long
|
| 9:23 |
I’ll try this one again! Thoughts on Brandon Phillips becoming best defensive 2nd basemen of all time based on fielding percentage? |
| 9:23 |
: Not even one single thought
|
| 9:23 |
Who is the first FA to sign? |
| 9:23 |
: Somebody third-tier
|
| 9:23 |
Cameron nice job on Jonah’s podcast! I raked leaves listening to you today. |
| 9:23 |
: Thanks, I think.
|
| 9:24 |
Fielding percentage is a load of bullpeavy |
| 9:25 |
: Yeah, what this game needs is more too-long plate appearances
|
| 9:25 |
: I’m going to miss the playoffs, but I”m not going to miss the four hours of one game of the playoffs each day
|
| 9:26 |
If a pitcher can throw 100MPH normally, he can throw a strike 99% of the time at _____ MPH. |
| 9:26 |
: none of them. can’t do it at any velocity
|
| 9:26 |
: Another walk.
|
| 9:26 |
: Amazing.
|
| 9:26 |
: Incredible. How
|
| 9:26 |
Yost is leaving |
| 9:26 |
: Coming up on an hour and a half! If the Giants don’t do something to make this game interesting now I’m going to be steamed
|
| 9:26 |
Where are you Duffy? |
| 9:27 |
: Well that’ll work for me I guess
|
| 9:27 |
: I’m not one who says “make a pitcher throw strikes”, but a first pitch swing there?
|
| 9:27 |
: That was surprising. Wasn’t even a clear strike
|
| 9:27 |
Would people riot in Kc if the Giants came back? On a 1-10 how shocked would you guys be |
| 9:28 |
: Funny you ask that
|
| 9:28 |
That’s unfair – isn’t a ball in front of the plate supposed to bounce over the fielder’s head? |
| 9:28 |
: Hypothetically, let’s say the Royals force Game 7, lead in the 9th, and then Greg Holland melts down and the Royals lose. Are people still thankful for the playoff run? if so, how long until they realize it?
|
| 9:28 |
: Very quickly, I think.
|
| 9:28 |
: Interesting
|
| 9:29 |
: It would probably take me some weeks
|
| 9:29 |
: How long did 1995 take you?
|
| 9:29 |
: I was a child. Who cares what I thought?
|
| 9:29 |
: Fair.
|
| 9:29 |
: The music is super annoying, but I like this MLB commercial.
|
| 9:30 |
: Jean Machi in. So that answers the question about when Bochy punts.
|
| 9:30 |
: When do we punt
|
| 9:30 |
If Madison Bumgarner gives up 52 straight HRs, he’ll still have a lower career postseason ERA than Jake Peavy. |
| 9:30 |
: I’m going to write my Fox piece in a few innings if this doesn’t get closer.
|
| 9:31 |
Is “the ball just sounds different coming off his bat” not as stupid as I think it is? Or is it just as stupid as I think it is? It cannot be more stupid than I think it is. |
| 9:31 |
: Not as stupid, but a little stupid, perhaps?
|
| 9:31 |
So are the Royals the favorite in tomorrow’s game? |
| 9:31 |
: It’s real and overused, I think.
|
| 9:31 |
: yeah, probably 55-45
|
| 9:31 |
longest game everrrrr… and now there’s hardly any reason to keep watching |
| 9:32 |
: I think some people, well trained scouts, probably can pick up subtle differences in sound. I think announcers probably cannot.
|
| 9:32 |
: Double whammy
|
| 9:32 |
: This is Game 6 of the 2001 World Series. Hopefully tomorrow is Game 7
|
| 9:32 |
: “Seven run inning was huge.”
|
| 9:32 |
: Insight!
|
| 9:33 |
: So with a Game 7, Yost gets his wish!
|
| 9:33 |
It’s actually harder to throw strikes once you decrease velocity/effort beyond a certain point. Need a certain level of speed to maintain mechanics |
| 9:33 |
: Infante hits a pitch.
|
| 9:33 |
: Which is why a lot of guys throw pretty normal when issuing an intentional walk
|
| 9:34 |
Are you rooting for the Giants Jeff? Is it a west coast thing |
| 9:34 |
: I was rooting for something interesting. I’m not getting it tonight!
|
| 9:34 |
: You could turn this into a Volcano chat, if that would be more interesting.
|
| 9:34 |
: That would give me an excuse to leave.
|
| 9:34 |
: Well obviously it would be more interesting
|
| 9:34 |
: But like hell am I letting you get out of here
|
| 9:35 |
So about Bumgarner going on short rest, I know pitchers usually pitch worse on short rest but are there measurable things that pitchers usually do worse on short rest? For example, maybe less velocity, less pitch movement? |
| 9:35 |
: I have a Fox piece to write. Have pity on me!
|
| 9:35 |
: We don’t really know — they just generally do worse. But Bumgarner working out of the bullpen would offset some of that
|
| 9:35 |
: Yeah, yeah, I know, it’s hard, writing for Fox can be inconvenient. You go when you feel it’s appropriate to go
|
| 9:36 |
: Haha I don’t know
|
| 9:36 |
: Just rewrite what I wrote about home-field advantages
|
| 9:36 |
: which was a rewrite of what Petriello wrote about home-field advantages
|
| 9:36 |
: The poll is a joke. Suggestions are seriously welcome, though.
|
| 9:36 |
: Because analyzing this game seems pointless.
|
| 9:36 |
is there a world in which Ventura is pulled after 2 and starts again tomorrow? |
| 9:36 |
: Not a world we’ve discovered
|
| 9:37 |
Does your Fox piece actually have to be about Game 6? |
| 9:37 |
: It does not. Game 7 suggestions valid too.
|
| 9:37 |
How do baseball writers like you guys deal with boring, lopsided games like this? The average schmuck like me can turn the game off and do other things, but this is your job. Is this the part of the job that sucks, or is it something else? |
| 9:37 |
: We’re going to have nothing but Game 7 content tomorrow because what can you write about this
|
| 9:37 |
: This is part of the job that sucks. But every job has sucky parts, and relatively, this is not that sucky.
|
| 9:37 |
: If we weren’t livechatting I’d be making dinner and hardly paying attention right now
|
| 9:38 |
: What are you going to have for dinner instead?
|
| 9:38 |
One easy suggestion would be to draw out your ideal pitching orders for each team. |
| 9:38 |
: Leaning that way too.
|
| 9:38 |
: I tried a different pulled pork recipe with a mustard-based sauce. It’s good
|
| 9:38 |
: Basically living out of my crockpot during October
|
| 9:38 |
: I braised mine in apple cider the other day, then used apple sauce as the spread on the bun when I made the sandwich. Recommended.
|
| 9:39 |
Tell me you’re not bastardizing it in the crockpot |
| 9:39 |
oh |
| 9:39 |
: Noted for the weekend!
|
| 9:39 |
: I’m a blogger, the hell else am I supposed to do
|
| 9:39 |
: Order a fritos chili pizza.
|
| 9:39 |
: I’ll take honest pulled pork recommendations if you people have something better than a slow cooker
|
| 9:40 |
I think EW podcast had a guy on about bat sounds earlier this year. |
| 9:40 |
: Hey look, more runs!
|
| 9:40 |
: It was a very interesting analysis!
|
| 9:40 |
: I don’t see Blanco’s horse anywhere
|
| 9:41 |
has there been a worse CS/WS game 7 SP matchup than Hudson/Guthrie? |
| 9:41 |
Dave, re: FOX piece: maybe short-rest penalty (to start MadBum or not)? That has to be a topic that a lot of people are interested in, and Saber community has a decent answer for… |
| 9:41 |
: Difference being neither one will last more than 2-3 innings
|
| 9:41 |
: Yeah, a good suggestion too.
|
| 9:42 |
2 hours for 3 innings. Oh baseball |
| 9:42 |
: This is so pointless. I know I sound complainy but this is a waste of all of our attention and time
|
| 9:42 |
The name ‘Gregor Blanco’ means ‘To Watch out for Whitey’. |
| 9:43 |
: good advice
|
| 9:43 |
I liked the Giants better when Buster Posey was still playing for them. |
| 9:43 |
Volcano chat. We actually have volcano happenings. |
| 9:43 |
: Sulfur dioxide levels off the charts in regions of Iceland!
|
| 9:44 |
: Plume hasn’t gotten high enough to have global consequences but it could head toward Scandinavia
|
| 9:44 |
The lava flow from the Kilauea volcano, burning everything in its path, advanced more than 80 metres in the past 24 hours towards the town of Pahoa, on the eastern tip of the island, officials are reporting. |
| 9:44 |
: People are afraid of lava. It’s funny. Lava has killed basically like zero people in the recorded history of the planet.
|
| 9:44 |
So is it safe to say that the painfully awkward San Francisco Giants showed up tonight? |
| 9:45 |
: Oh no, lava is over there, I better very slowly pack up all of my belongings and leave in a week or two.
|
| 9:45 |
hey, a game 6 2001 stat! |
| 9:45 |
Most interesting volcano fact? |
| 9:45 |
: Another first pitch swing.
|
| 9:46 |
: Most interesting volcano fact is like asking about most beautiful sunset
|
| 9:46 |
: I like informing people that the Yellowstone hotspot has moved over the course of a few million years from the southeastern border of Oregon
|
| 9:47 |
: Man I hope tomorrow’s game is close
|
| 9:47 |
So, Kyle Zimmer had shoulder surgery– think he helps the ROyals next year? |
| 9:47 |
: Not at least until July
|
| 9:47 |
: Probably not until September
|
| 9:47 |
Dave’s got nothing on volcanoes? |
| 9:48 |
: Less than nothing.
|
| 9:48 |
: use “pyroclastic” in a sentence
|
| 9:48 |
: My friend was a pyroclastic, so he got arrested.
|
| 9:48 |
: atta boy
|
| 9:49 |
I won my 8th grade spelling bee with the word “pyroclastic”. |
| 9:49 |
: I thought you might go with “I don’t know what pyroclastic means”
|
| 9:49 |
“I do not know what pyroclastic means”. |
| 9:49 |
: bingo
|
| 9:49 |
Pyroclastic is a word with 11 letters. |
| 9:49 |
: This chat has turned around 180 degrees!
|
| 9:49 |
“World Series winning manager” could be on Ned Yost’s resume and ultimately in his obituary. Wow. |
| 9:49 |
: Bob Brenly’s already been there
|
| 9:50 |
how is it only the 4th inninng |
| 9:50 |
I wish this game would move more pyroclastically |
| 9:50 |
I really liked the movie Volcano. That’s…relevant to the discussion, right? |
| 9:50 |
: That movie, while ridiculous, featured relatively accurate portrayals of lava as a substance!
|
| 9:50 |
Lava doesn’t kill people because we’ve been playing ‘The Floor Is Lava’ since we were old enough to stand. |
| 9:51 |
What has looked worse? This game, or that fritos chili pizza? |
| 9:51 |
Can you do a poll of Volcano, Dante’s Peak, and Pompeii? |
| 9:51 |
: The game has at least had funny moments
|
| 9:51 |
Dave should write about volcanos for Fox tomorrow. |
| 9:51 |
: Wasn’t there a Joe Vs the Volcano movie too?
|
| 9:51 |
: yeah 🙁
|
| 9:51 |
RE: Game 7 Matchups: How about the 2006 NLCS with Oliver Perez vs. Jeff Suppan for worst of all time? |
| 9:51 |
If Yellowstone blows are we all gonna die? |
| 9:52 |
: not even like five of you
|
| 9:52 |
Whose chatting tmrw? |
| 9:52 |
: Us!
|
| 9:52 |
: I hope nobody actually reads this chat transcript when it’s posted
|
| 9:52 |
: I might not even post it.
|
| 9:52 |
: I can’t blame you
|
| 9:52 |
I’m so bored I’m so bored I’m so bored I’m so bored I’m so bored I’m so bored I’m so bored I’m so bored I’m so bored I’m so bored I’m so bored I’m so bored I’m so bored |
| 9:52 |
 The floor is hot lava! |
| 9:52 |
Just replace it with a THIS POST DELETED BY ADMINISTRATOR. |
| 9:52 |
Its not lava that kills people. Its usually the smoke and cinder that is the result of an eruption. There has been some lava kills but usually people walking on semi-cooled lava and fall in ie dumb people. I come from a place where walking on ground that melts your shoes is a tourist attraction. |
| 9:53 |
@Dave: How about trying to look into why pitchers are worse on short rest, even if it just ends up with you throwing your arms up? |
| 9:53 |
Are managers actually more aggressive with their bullpens in game 7 scenarios or is that just something we accept as fact because it makes the most sense? |
| 9:53 |
: When there’s no tomorrow, they go pretty nuts
|
| 9:53 |
: It’s a good study for FG, but probably not for Fox’s audience.
|
| 9:53 |
: Writing for Fox can be weird like that
|
| 9:53 |
: Tomorrow is Wednesday, so yes.
|
| 9:53 |
I forget Jeff’s answer last time I mentioned the SimCity 2000 scenario where a volcano erupts in downtown Portland. |
| 9:53 |
: We’re over a lava field! It’s called the Boring lava field. That is true
|
| 9:54 |
Do you have any info on the demographics of the fangraphs audience versus, say, the Fox audience, or the ESPN audience, etc? |
| 9:54 |
: We don’t have demographic numbers for those guys, but I bet we skew younger.
|
| 9:55 |
: Any minute now we should hear from that couple where the guy bought the girl a dog after the WC game
|
| 9:55 |
Why are they interviewing these people? |
| 9:55 |
: Have you seen the game?
|
| 9:55 |
: I haven’t for 40 minutes
|
| 9:55 |
8-0. Interview everyone! |
| 9:55 |
: God knows they have time
|
| 9:56 |
“Hello, how are sales?” – to the cotton candy salesman |
| 9:56 |
Whoa, did you see this? The Associated Press is reporting that volcanoes are for people who are lame. |
| 9:56 |
: it’s not true!!
|
| 9:57 |
Has there ever been any sort of saber metric study on how much of a difference pitch tipping makes? Can’t be an easy thing to study, but Verduccis comment a few moments ago made me wonder |
| 9:57 |
: We don’t have a database of pitch-tippers.
|
| 9:57 |
: It’s basically impossible to ever spot or confirm
|
| 9:57 |
I’m in to see if a position player pitches. |
| 9:57 |
Gun to your head: Dante’s Peak or Volcano and don’t make some quip about the necessity of the gun |
| 9:57 |
: Dante’s Peak
|
| 9:57 |
This game is way better than fritos chili pizza. It has Ishikawa falling on his ass and Hunter Pence. |
| 9:58 |
Score? |
| 9:58 |
: Too much to too little, KC on top
|
| 9:58 |
I just want to see my name on here |
| 9:58 |
: Brandon Belt is not having a good day.
|
| 9:58 |
: Belt did all he could, except catch the baseball
|
| 9:59 |
Dave, post this transcript as your Fox piece |
| 9:59 |
isn’t yellowstone a supervolcano though? not that i have any idea what a supervolcano is |
| 9:59 |
: Ben wants us to get fired.
|
| 9:59 |
: If Yellowstone erupts the overwhelming likelihood is that the eruption is small and contained within the caldera
|
| 9:59 |
I don’t care how boring this is; better than any NFL game this season. |
| 9:59 |
: yeah, down with football!
|
| 10:00 |
If Yellowstone erupts…would it become Firestone? 🙂 |
| 10:00 |
: oh good, American Authors, that makes the game less completely shitty
|
| 10:00 |
So you guys are chatting tomorrow even if there’s no game? |
| 10:00 |
: At this rate we’ll be chatting tomorrow today
|
| 10:00 |
: We will not be chatting at midnight, barring a miracle comeback.
|
| 10:01 |
: Either the game will be over or we will have thrown in the towel.
|
| 10:01 |
: 39-pitch at bat from Joaquin Arias
|
| 10:01 |
: I’d gif ’em all.
|
| 10:01 |
What in the world is Bochy gonna do to fill in the next 6 innings? Will we see Vogelsong? |
| 10:02 |
: Bochy’s gonna nap, but some pitcher will designate himself as the subsequent mop-up man
|
| 10:02 |
While Yost bashing is all the rage… he’s actually been pretty decent in the postseason no? And not any worse than guys like Matheny and Williams? |
| 10:02 |
: Yost hasn’t made the Williams/Matheny crippling mistakes
|
| 10:02 |
: Conservative PAC runs attack ad in NC against incumbent senator, comparing her to Obama. I’ll give you one guess on the racial makeup of the people used in the ad.
|
| 10:03 |
: That ad could only have been whiter if it was filmed on BYU’s campus.
|
| 10:03 |
: I love when Dave gets bitey
|
| 10:03 |
Dave I don’t understand the point you’re trying to make |
| 10:03 |
: That PAC was apparently sponsored by bleach.
|
| 10:04 |
It’s seems somewhat ambiguous and ill-defined, but Jeff, when does a hill became a mountain? In a scientific sense not a philosophical one. |
| 10:04 |
: I like Ventura’s leg kick. /baseball commentary.
|
| 10:04 |
: There is no scientific threshold, but a lot of people consider the line at 2000 feet above sea level
|
| 10:04 |
: Will Carroll would say it’s wasted momentum that doesn’t go toward home plate
|
| 10:05 |
: Yeah, because Yordano Ventura is definitely missing a few ticks on his fastball.
|
| 10:05 |
: Maybe with a few more he’d actually start getting strikeouts
|
| 10:05 |
on Netflix: The Englishman who went up a Hill (and came down a mountain) goes into the subject of hill v mountain in depth. |
| 10:05 |
Harold Reynolds Stories are the best |
| 10:05 |
In the Hugh Grant movie “The Man Who Went Up a Hill but Came Down a Mountain” I believe it’s 1,000 ft (http://www.imdb.com/title/t…) |
| 10:05 |
Jeff, interview a volcano right now. |
| 10:06 |
: I would love to
|
| 10:06 |
was there any discussion about how unusual it is that MLB let Ventura write on his cap? |
| 10:06 |
: Nothing meaningful. Basically, if MLB came down on him for it, they’d never hear the end of it
|
| 10:06 |
: For them it’s probably not too different from Weaver writing Adenhart’s initials on the mound each time he throws
|
| 10:07 |
: At least this is moving along finally.
|
| 10:07 |
: You’re going to make me look up
|
| 10:07 |
: Here’s a teenager to sell cars
|
| 10:07 |
How much is your enjoyment of the game diminished by having to pay attention to the chat? |
| 10:07 |
: This game, not at all
|
| 10:07 |
: Are you kidding? The chat is the only reason the game is still on.
|
| 10:08 |
I think the game is actually taking away from the enjoyment of the chat |
| 10:08 |
: Generally, the chat is good, but it does take away from my complete attention. We chatted the AL WC playoff and that was great, albeit super long
|
| 10:08 |
: Yeah, it can be awesome.
|
| 10:08 |
: Whoever chatted the NL WC game got the royal screwjob
|
| 10:08 |
: We had an absolutely monstrous traffic spike from that too.
|
| 10:08 |
: although that game was almost over by now
|
| 10:09 |
How pissed would you be as a Giant fan at the K right now? Knowing you could have sold your ticket for a sizable profit but instead sitting through this. I have been there before with hockey and to the this day regret not selling game 7 tickets for $700 profit, instead seeing my team down 6-0 in the 2nd. Not fun. |
| 10:09 |
: Being a sports fan is gambling. It’s that simple
|
| 10:09 |
A couple more 1 pitch outs. How many does that make now? |
| 10:09 |
: Jeff, this feels like a post for you.
|
| 10:10 |
: Tremendous!
|
| 10:10 |
: 1 pitch ABs by leverage bucket.
|
| 10:10 |
: I can probably do that! And then MGL will yell at me!
|
| 10:10 |
Hey at least this game makes more sense than starting the NBA season with the Magic and Pelicans |
| 10:10 |
: The first game of this season had the Diamondbacks in it
|
| 10:10 |
: He might yell at you for that comment.
|
| 10:11 |
: I am not smart enough to be able to exist on his wavelength a lot of the time
|
| 10:11 |
“The distinction between a hill and a mountain is unclear and largely subjective, but a hill is generally somewhat lower and less steep than a mountain. In the United Kingdom geographers historically regarded mountains as hills greater than 1,000 feet (300 m) above sea level, which formed the basis of the plot of the 1995 film The Englishman Who Went Up a Hill But Came Down a Mountain. In contrast, hillwalkers have tended to regard mountains as peaks 2,000 feet (610 m) above sea level”–Wikipedia. I really love that the Hugh Grant movie is included. |
| 10:11 |
Gun to your head what motivator would you prefer to “Gun to your head” |
| 10:11 |
: Carrot Top ringing the doorbell
|
| 10:12 |
So, MLBTR just ran their free agent profile for Jake Peavy. Think their prediction of 2/28 sounds about right? |
| 10:12 |
Why would Carrot Top ring the doorbell. He would just barge in and not be funny. |
| 10:12 |
: Feels like too much
|
| 10:12 |
: Yeah, I’ll take the under.
|
| 10:12 |
: Hey, runs.
|
| 10:12 |
: Imagine being King Midas only instead of gold everything you touch turns into Carrot Top
|
| 10:13 |
Why did Infante run through the stop sign up 8-0? Oh well, whatever |
| 10:13 |
: Royals bullpen didn’t even react to that
|
| 10:13 |
: Feels like that broke an unwritten rule
|
| 10:13 |
HOW CAN THE WE BE AT 100%?! |
| 10:13 |
: Rounding.
|
| 10:14 |
: In this game, a hitter made contact with a pitch after a time-out, and a runner rounded behind a base coach
|
| 10:14 |
Wow… there is NO WAY he should have scored on that. It actually was a halfway decent throw by Ishikawa too (well, for him). |
| 10:14 |
: Hunter Strickland. Because we haven’t had any dingers in a while.
|
| 10:14 |
IF you couldn’t chat with anyone right now, would you lose your mind? |
| 10:15 |
: I’d make dinner and talk to my girlfriend. Dave would play with his dog or talk to his wife.
|
| 10:15 |
: Dog and wife are both in bed. I’d be working.
|
| 10:15 |
: oh, right, Fox
|
| 10:15 |
There are reports that Jose Canseco shot himself in the hand while cleaning his gun. |
| 10:16 |
: I understand he’s shot himself a bunch of times
|
| 10:16 |
You should wake up your wife so you can talk to her. |
| 10:16 |
: Yeah, you’re clearly not married.
|
| 10:16 |
All else equal, should I move to Albuqueque or Portland? Why? |
| 10:17 |
: Portland if you can afford an increasingly expensive market
|
| 10:17 |
: Albuquerque is cheaper.
|
| 10:17 |
When does Rainier erupt? |
| 10:17 |
: Crazy play by Crawford there.
|
| 10:17 |
: Something will happen within 100 years
|
| 10:17 |
: Holy moly.
|
| 10:17 |
: Oh my goodness
|
| 10:17 |
: Though Cain might not have been busting it down the line.
|
| 10:17 |
: And Moustakas made that dive with the score 8-0. Players are still playing!
|
| 10:18 |
: Looks like Cain was sprinting
|
| 10:18 |
: Amazing.
|
| 10:18 |
: That is some kind of arm strength.
|
| 10:18 |
: Belt should’ve just dropped the ball, taken off his glove, and left the field
|
| 10:18 |
Why are commercials only scrutinized during the Superbowl? |
| 10:18 |
: Only time people watch them
|
| 10:19 |
Rob Lowe has been scrutinized |
| 10:19 |
We got some political ad scrutiny here earlier |
| 10:19 |
So, it’s 2015 and you’re building your playoff rotation. Do either of you take Bumgarner over Kershaw, given the choice? How much longer would past history have to repeat before you do? |
| 10:19 |
: Of course not.
|
| 10:19 |
: Not close
|
| 10:20 |
Who has a better 2015, Belt or Hosmer? I’m still Team Belt, but could go either way. |
| 10:20 |
: Hosmer.
|
| 10:20 |
What if Kershaw pitches like playoff Kershaw all next season? |
| 10:21 |
: There’s no way this guy got too drunk to drive home on Budweiser
|
| 10:21 |
: Then he’d get an MRI and go on the DL in May.
|
| 10:21 |
: Fun fact: playoff Kershaw had a 37% strikeout rate
|
| 10:21 |
For the record, Kershaw’s xFIP this postseason is 1/2 of Bumgarner’s |
| 10:22 |
Is Ventura’s secondary stuff good enough to be a top of the rotation starter for a while ?(if/when he starts losing a little velocity) |
| 10:22 |
: Not right now. Given his velocity, he kind of sucks
|
| 10:22 |
: Not presently.
|
| 10:22 |
: Funny thing about Bumgarner’s World Series: if it were like July or something, we’d be saying “yeah he pitched well, but then, it was the Royals”
|
| 10:23 |
: Yep.
|
| 10:23 |
: Their Game 5 lineup was never going to score
|
| 10:24 |
: Hey, that’s kind of a neat graphic, Fox.
|
| 10:24 |
: Why not give us those every game?
|
| 10:24 |
: Hey that was great!
|
| 10:24 |
Why not compare it to AT&T? |
| 10:25 |
0-25% |
| 10:25 |
Loved the overlay there. It really gets the message across. |
| 10:25 |
: So why is it that good defensive outfielders might not be more valuable in big outfields, like MGL says he’s found?
|
| 10:26 |
You chatted the NL WC Jeff. |
| 10:26 |
: Did I really?
|
| 10:26 |
: I did!
|
| 10:26 |
: Wow!
|
| 10:26 |
: Because humans can only cover so much ground, and it’s less than the size of even the smallest OF?
|
| 10:26 |
: what a memorable experience that obviously was
|
| 10:26 |
: But don’t you care about the % of the outfield that you can cover?
|
| 10:27 |
: It doesn’t really matter if there are 20 or 50 feet behind you if you can only run 15 feet before the ball lands.
|
| 10:27 |
: I guess the big outfields are bigger in terms of depth, not really width, so then you’re just looking at dingers or doubles
|
| 10:28 |
Why doesn’t Yordano strike people out? |
| 10:28 |
: I don’t know enough to make any firm statements about this.
|
| 10:28 |
: Not good enough
|
| 10:29 |
Is there rational reason to start Hudson over Bum tomorrow? |
| 10:29 |
: But it seems like adding more room for a ball to drop in shouldn’t change an OFs value too much, given that he can’t get to that extra area anyways.
|
| 10:29 |
: Hudson won’t go long enough for it to really be a normal start
|
| 10:29 |
So offensive parks suppress singles and doubles, but allow more HRs, right? |
| 10:30 |
: Colorado elevates everything.
|
| 10:30 |
: Because the OF is huge and the ball carries.
|
| 10:30 |
Tomorrow night is gonna be a kitchen sink game anyway. Doesn’t really matter who starts; everyone should be available. |
| 10:30 |
: Correct.
|
| 10:30 |
: Watch both teams run out of pitchers by the 10th
|
| 10:31 |
is Hudson a HOFer? |
| 10:31 |
: Have we agreed that Game 7 is going to end on a Rule 7.13 review
|
| 10:31 |
: Not with the current BBWAA standard for pitchers.
|
| 10:31 |
: If Mussina/Schilling can’t get in, Hudson has no chance.
|
| 10:31 |
what about on Dave Cameron’s ballot? |
| 10:32 |
: Borderline. Probably not, but I could be convinced.
|
| 10:32 |
Do all Japanese players swing like Ichiro and Aoki? Is that a reason why there aren’t more NPB players in the MLB? |
| 10:32 |
: I think there will be as teams prioritize contact and being unshiftable
|
| 10:33 |
What is the pet that requires the least amount of effort to keep alive |
| 10:33 |
: a cat will just keep itself alive
|
| 10:33 |
: they’re basically unkillable
|
| 10:33 |
A pet rock |
| 10:33 |
Isn’t moving expensive? |
| 10:33 |
pet rock |
| 10:33 |
Pet rock |
| 10:33 |
: some volcanoes are extinct
|
| 10:33 |
pet rock, duh |
| 10:33 |
: look at all the pet rock shoutouts
|
| 10:34 |
Ichiro for HOF? If not, do you think we’ve seen the first player with NBP experience to get in? (Darvish, Tanaka, etc…) |
| 10:34 |
: Ichiro is an easy HOFer.
|
| 10:34 |
: yeah
|
| 10:34 |
Is there a baseball game on tonight? |
| 10:34 |
: not right now
|
| 10:35 |
Ichiro should NOT be in the HOF. Stats don’t support it. |
| 10:35 |
: 55 WAR in 14 years. Passes the greatness test easily, just didn’t have longevity due to NPB rules.
|
| 10:35 |
: No reason to hold that against him.
|
| 10:36 |
Is it just me, or did every pitcher traded away in the Boston fire sale implode on themselves? |
| 10:36 |
: Just you
|
| 10:36 |
: Lackey was fine, Lester was good
|
| 10:37 |
: It was 83 here today. The weather guy just told us we might get snow this weekend.
|
| 10:37 |
: Cousins in Golden told me it snowed there in, like, June
|
| 10:37 |
: Last weekend it was 80 and spectacular
|
| 10:37 |
Jeff took a lot of heat the last time he said Ventura sucked on Twitter |
| 10:37 |
WeatherGraphs? |
| 10:37 |
: I would actually read this.
|
| 10:37 |
: I said that Herrera is not an elite reliever, and he incidentally is not an elite reliever
|
| 10:37 |
: I kind of like meteorology.
|
| 10:38 |
Predictions on when we see either Bumgarner or Shields tomorrow, and how long they’ll go? |
| 10:38 |
: Bumgarner for three, Shields for 1.
|
| 10:38 |
: Bumgarner should…start the fourth or so
|
| 10:39 |
Race to the bullpen situation |
| 10:39 |
: I have decided to write about this for Fox, by the way.
|
| 10:39 |
: Thanks for the suggestions.
|
| 10:40 |
Do you guys hang out at the winter meetings together? |
| 10:40 |
: I didn’t go last year, Dave isn’t going this year
|
| 10:40 |
: missing my wingman 🙁
|
| 10:40 |
: But you get to drink your way around San Diego.
|
| 10:40 |
: I did that for like four years
|
| 10:40 |
: Nostalgia.
|
| 10:40 |
: Truth
|
| 10:41 |
: Ventura is gesticulating a lot.
|
| 10:41 |
: And yes, I just wanted to say gesticulating.
|
| 10:41 |
: Did he just almost fall backwards?
|
| 10:41 |
: There’s Harold singing…
|
| 10:41 |
Is Ventura really reminiscent of Pedro? |
| 10:41 |
: NO
|
| 10:41 |
: Not to me.
|
| 10:41 |
: GOD
|
| 10:42 |
There’s a topic for FOX. Ventura not strike out dudes. |
| 10:42 |
: Feels like an offseason thing. As soon as this is over nobody cares about Ventura and everyone cares about Game 7
|
| 10:42 |
: Ventura hitting 100 in the 7th up by 9.
|
| 10:43 |
: He’s paced himself!
|
| 10:43 |
What is the most batters a pitcher should face tomorrow (if only a 9 inning game)? |
| 10:43 |
: 9ish for Bumgarner
|
| 10:43 |
: more if there are still lefties remaining
|
| 10:44 |
: Yordano Ventura: nice pitcher, not Felix Hernandez.
|
| 10:44 |
: they’re really doubling down on this Ventura stuff
|
| 10:45 |
I know this place is for cynics, but if a rookie with a 3.60 FIP and 2.8 WAR sucks… |
| 10:45 |
: Ventura doesn’t suck; he sucks relative to what he ought to be given what he throws
|
| 10:45 |
: His stuff is absurd, so he’s doing something wrong
|
| 10:47 |
Ichiro has hit over 400 OBP and gotten close to it a few times. He’s only topped 7.0 BB% once. Ichiro was sort of crazy good at hitting! |
| 10:47 |
: Ichiro was a rare pleasure. He strung together seasons of Aoki’s best games, with superior defense too
|
| 10:47 |
Jeff got unfollowed on twitter for saying Hunter Strickland is homer-prone. Twitter. |
| 10:47 |
: I won that guy back!
|
| 10:48 |
Mainstream populace is loving the speed/defense idea thanks to Royals’ success. Would an A’s run like this circa 2000 have aided the adoption of the first wave of Moneyball inefficiencies? |
| 10:48 |
: the casual fan would’ve been more receptive
|
| 10:48 |
: Okay, I think I’m going to peace out and go work on my Fox piece now.
|
| 10:48 |
: Enjoy the volcano chat, Jeff.
|
| 10:48 |
: Farewell. At least things have picked up the pace
|
| 10:49 |
: See you tomorrow! Right here! When this chat is still going.
|
| 10:49 |
Do you think that if the Giants had the option to call the game now, would they? |
| 10:49 |
: Yes
|
| 10:49 |
kind of morbid, but who’s the next pitcher to have TJ surgery? I wanna hear some suggestions |
| 10:49 |
: Tanaka?
|
| 10:50 |
Speaking of which: Pedro 1999/2000… the best pitcher I’ve ever seen, or the best pitcher any of us have ever seen? |
| 10:50 |
: probably the latter
|
| 10:50 |
What’s Ventura’s pitch count up to? |
| 10:50 |
: 100 even
|
| 10:51 |
“Dominant bullpen arm” has to be Ventura’s ceiling, if even that, no? |
| 10:51 |
: Huh? Absolutely not. He’s already an acceptable starter
|
| 10:52 |
Do you guys think the Mariners thought Smoak would clear waivers or were they finally done? |
| 10:52 |
: Done. Didn’t want to pay him $3 million
|
| 10:52 |
The Game Graph for tonight’s game has not featured any leverage index bars since the bottom of the third inning. As in, this game has been unwatchable since then. |
| 10:52 |
: I’m looking at my laptop with the game muted
|
| 10:53 |
Any chance he fixes whatever’s wrong and becomes a monster? |
| 10:53 |
: Yeah, Ventura has crazy potential, but most pitchers don’t realize it
|
| 10:53 |
Kind of like Nathan Eovaldi. He throws really hard, and he’s ok, but he should be striking out way more guys |
| 10:54 |
: Eovaldi’s fastball doesn’t have swing-and-miss movement.
|
| 10:54 |
: no way
|
| 10:54 |
: are you serious? another one?
|
| 10:54 |
: Breaking ball this time. Strickland is incredible.
|
| 10:55 |
as bad as hosmer’s haircut is, i think it will take at least a decade to appreciate just how bad it is. |
| 10:55 |
: like most haircuts
|
| 10:55 |
Royals next season around .500? |
| 10:55 |
: Sounds about right to me. I think the Indians win the division
|
| 10:56 |
Here’s a fun impossible post, what is the biggest number that the speed of the pitch has been the same as the pitch count? |
| 10:56 |
: Ventura or Verlander I bet!
|
| 10:56 |
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/offi… MLB rules say a team can forfeit at any time, if they want, by just refusing to continue playing. But the MLB would never actually allow it even if the rules allow it, I bet. Imagine the outrage! |
| 10:57 |
Any opinion on Smoak being a Jay now? |
| 10:57 |
: he’s not good
|
| 10:57 |
Ventura or Danny Salazar for Career WAR? |
| 10:57 |
: huh. Ventura
|
| 10:57 |
What about Strickland? Does he look like he could be an elite reliver? |
| 10:58 |
: I don’t care for the way his fastball moves. I mean, if his command gets better then he’ll be as good as anyone, but I don’t think his strikeouts will quite match his velocities
|
| 10:58 |
Since we were talking about Pedro earlier. A team of peak Pedro, peak Ruth and peak Bonds steps onto the field, every other player is replacement level. Can they make the playoffs? |
| 10:58 |
: wild-card contender
|
| 10:59 |
Can we invoke the mercy rule, please? |
| 10:59 |
in 10 years some people will look up these player’s WS stats and have the wrong impression |
| 11:00 |
Worst last 2 weeks? I’ll take Hunter Strickland. |
| 11:00 |
: Dreadful, but at least it hasn’t really cost the Giants very much
|
| 11:00 |
Is Strickland basically unpitchable tomorrow? |
| 11:00 |
: Before the 12th inning, yeah
|
| 11:00 |
Is Hunter Strickland exactly the kind of pitcher you don’t want to use xFIP for? |
| 11:00 |
: Nah, this isn’t him. Going forward, he’s a fine reliever
|
| 11:01 |
“You just hit a home run in the World Series!” It is 10-0 and it was off Hunter Strickland. |
| 11:01 |
any chance the royals splurge for a good strater in free agency? |
| 11:01 |
: Not ace-good, but they’ll find an arm somewhere with name value
|
| 11:01 |
My grandma can hit as well as Smoak |
| 11:01 |
: your grandma is amazing
|
| 11:02 |
Unwritten rules of baseball say you shouldn’t try to hit home runs up 10-0 in the World Series? (the convo on TV just a minute ago) It’s the World Series! You should try to score 50 runs! |
| 11:02 |
: I don’t think you have to try to hit a homer against Strickland to hit a homer against Strickland right now
|
| 11:02 |
do you think the KC fans are still having fun or getting bored? |
| 11:03 |
: Lots of smiles, limited actual excitement. The sobering-up process is beginning and there’s nervousness for tomorrow
|
| 11:03 |
What is an example of good fastball movement, aside from someone like Jansen, or an extreme sinkerballer? Like, what counts as great four-seamer movement? They tend to be pretty straight |
| 11:03 |
: pfz value around 10+
|
| 11:04 |
: Below that, you seem to see more contact
|
| 11:04 |
Question: How is every qualified 1st Basemen (who actually played 1st Base, sorry Todd Frazier) have a negative value defensively? That means that some were above-average defensively, but since they are lower on the defensive spectrum lost value, correct? |
| 11:04 |
: Yeah, really good defenders don’t end up as first basemen.
|
| 11:06 |
Baseball player’s last name that sounds like it could be a volcano? |
| 11:07 |
: for some reason I think Melancon
|
| 11:07 |
Is Wade Davis: Starter completely over and done with? |
| 11:07 |
: yep
|
| 11:07 |
As a KC fan, fireworks have been going off in my neighborhood for about 90 minutes. |
| 11:07 |
Does Bochy start to contemplate asking Bumgarner if he can throw game 7… as in start. |
| 11:07 |
: no. he’ll get his three innings or so regardless
|
| 11:08 |
SO.. what have I missed tonight? |
| 11:08 |
: nothing for the last couple hours
|
| 11:08 |
are either of you guys effectively wild listeners? |
| 11:08 |
: Sometimes. Dave is gone!
|
| 11:08 |
Goal this game: Pinch Hit Erik Kratz |
| 11:08 |
: Sign Adam Dunn, get him in there for a hack
|
| 11:09 |
The read on young Pujols was that he could have played 3rd no? |
| 11:09 |
: He did play third, and some outfield
|
| 11:10 |
If Vogelsong pitches the 9th, does that mean Bochy has more faith in Lincecum tomorrow than Vogelsong? Strange for a guy who’s barely pitched this postseason. |
| 11:10 |
: If Vogelsong pitches the 9th today, maybe there isn’t even a game tomorrow
|
| 11:10 |
How real is the rivalry between BP and fangraphs? |
| 11:10 |
: I like Sam a lot
|
| 11:10 |
Pujols turned an unassissted double or triple play in junior college |
| 11:11 |
Greatest non-Mariner game you’ve ever watched? |
| 11:11 |
: Rangers/Cardinals Game 6
|
| 11:11 |
What the hell does pujols have to do with this? |
| 11:11 |
: Good defenders and first base
|
| 11:12 |
So what’s the pitching strategy for SF tomorrow? Start Hudson, then bring in Bumgarner if Hudson gets into trouble? |
| 11:12 |
: I don’t think Bumgarner is entering in the middle of an inning by any means. If Hudson gets in a jam, they’ll get through it situationall and then Bumgarner will start the following frame
|
| 11:12 |
Are there players who can actually play better at harder positions than at easier ones? For example: Is there a gold glove 2B that would struggle in LF? |
| 11:12 |
: In the beginning, yes!
|
| 11:13 |
God we’re still in the 8th. This game is gonna be 4 hours |
| 11:13 |
: Considering where we were after two hours this now is kind of a miracle
|
| 11:14 |
If you took the mound in the top of the 9th: who would win? |
| 11:14 |
: Royals. I can give up fly balls
|
| 11:14 |
Does each team have a pitcher warming in the 1st tomorrow? |
| 11:15 |
: They’d prefer not to! But it won’t take much
|
| 11:15 |
: …six…more…outs…
|
| 11:15 |
Jeff, I am guessing this chat is fairly quiet so I wanted to thank you for everything you wrote this season. As someone who has attempted some writing and analysis of my own, I truly appreciate the work put into many of your often GIF heavy posts. All of that makes a difference and makes reading your work essential for someone trying to learn more and more about the game. |
| 11:15 |
: You are kind! Many of you are kind.
|
| 11:16 |
Do you do predictions? What’s your prediction for tomorrow? |
| 11:16 |
: I don’t do predictions, aside from my prediction that tomorrow’s game will be more entertaining
|
| 11:16 |
Can you think of any super slow runners who would be terrible outfielders but are good at 2b/ss/3b? |
| 11:16 |
: Jhonny Peralta?
|
| 11:17 |
If Bumgarner has to come in early tomorrow it’s going to be serious trouble anyway. Tomorrow is a 6 inning game regardless of score. The big KC guns will be coming in. |
| 11:17 |
: Herrera is beatable and the other day Juan Perez hit a two-run double off Wade Davis. Weird shit happens, like the Royals winning this game 10-0
|
| 11:17 |
off the top of your head, who would have the best avg UZR if they played a representative sample at every position? |
| 11:17 |
: Gotta think Simmons
|
| 11:18 |
I have a friend who feels like the degree of difficulty between infield and outfields is not comparable. It seems to me that an infielder could probably play decent outfield, but I would think a lot of outfielders, even good ones, could not play infield at all |
| 11:18 |
: I think I agree with that
|
| 11:18 |
how many games would the nationals, minus one fielder (they get to pick which fielder at any given time) win against the astros over 162 games? |
| 11:18 |
: I’ll go with 85-90!
|
| 11:18 |
Can you throw a strike? |
| 11:18 |
: I used to pitch so I sure as hell hope so
|
| 11:19 |
I recently watched an old game on YouTube, and I must say, without commercials, even an extra inning game is refreshingly fast. I can see what made this game catch on in the early 1900s! |
| 11:19 |
I’m not kind |
| 11:19 |
watch as all our bumgarner expectations are wrong and hudson pitches a CGSO |
| 11:19 |
Where do I find predicted WE for tomorrow? |
| 11:19 |
: Here, tomorrow http://www.fangraphs.com/li…
|
| 11:20 |
: It’s going to tell you something like 55% Royals
|
| 11:20 |
Who’s chatting tomorrow night? |
| 11:20 |
: Dave and I will return to close out the season
|
| 11:20 |
I would like to predict that the Giants will win tomorrow and I would also like to attach this prediction to my reputation |
| 11:20 |
What’s the ideal way to handle a pitching staff in-game assuming you didn’t have to go 5 innings as a starter to get the win? |
| 11:21 |
: Most “starting” pitchers only get 18 batters. The best get 27. Bigger selection of guys who can throw 1-3 innings
|
| 11:22 |
arismendy alcantera is a good example of the infield vs outfield difficulty curve |
| 11:22 |
Juan lagers got moved out of the infield |
| 11:22 |
: And he plays the outfield like the infield! Most aggressive outfielder I’ve seen
|
| 11:23 |
What is your best pitch? |
| 11:23 |
: Two-seam fastball that moves sometimes
|
| 11:23 |
There are a lot of 3Bs that probably would be terrible in the OF — Donaldson, Callaspo, old Beltre of the top of my head |
| 11:23 |
I think the Bumgarner thing is overhyped and it won’t be a major factor in tomorrow’s game. |
| 11:23 |
: I think he’ll probably be a good reliever for a few innings but as usual the game is going to depend on a variety of things, or something completely unforeseen
|
| 11:23 |
Some sportsbook lines are out and have KC about 54% |
| 11:24 |
So how many innings from Hydra tomorrow? 4? 5? |
| 11:24 |
: Should try for 5
|
| 11:24 |
What if we’re living inside a volcano right now!? |
| 11:24 |
: You’re probably safe! And you have extremely fertile soil
|
| 11:24 |
Brandon belt has killed the Giants again tonight. That and the fact that the Royals hit Jake Peavy like he is filled with candy. |
| 11:24 |
: and the no runs part is bad
|
| 11:25 |
: hey the end is in sight!
|
| 11:25 |
: Two away!
|
| 11:25 |
: So thankful that this game has sped up
|
| 11:25 |
Herrera is another guy who has Ventura syndrome. His peripheral results don’t really match his velocity. |
| 11:25 |
: He went from 30% strikeouts to 20% strikeouts without improving his walks. Weird and problematic
|
| 11:25 |
: I believe in that more than I believe in the no dingers allowed
|
| 11:26 |
Ned Yost hates Salvador Perez. Absolutely hates him. There is no explanation. |
| 11:26 |
: Or he just doesn’t know how to properly love. Loves him too much. Can’t say no to him.
|
| 11:26 |
How well would George Brett do if he suited up and tried to play tomorrow? |
| 11:26 |
: He’d be terrible! How embarrassing!
|
| 11:26 |
What was the hardest you ever threw? or thought you threw? |
| 11:26 |
: Might’ve topped out at 80. I was not good
|
| 11:27 |
You guys probably have been through this, but Peavy’s numbers are just incredible in the post-season. http://www.baseball-referen… |
| 11:27 |
: One out away!
|
| 11:27 |
: I don’t even know who’s pitching
|
| 11:27 |
Did you pitch in college Jeff? Any video us readers can look at? |
| 11:28 |
: I could’ve but since I wasn’t good I decided to focus on school instead
|
| 11:28 |
Giants get mid 90s bonds to start tomorrow, but they also have to start Barry Zito, and like Barry Zito from today |
| 11:28 |
Ned Yost hates Perez like the Red Sox coaching staff hates Cespedes. |
| 11:28 |
: No, I think some Sox coaches are legitimately annoyed. I think Yost is just too deep in love
|
| 11:28 |
What is to stop the Giants from DLing Peavy, Machi, & Strickland after the game? |
| 11:28 |
: I honestly don’t know!
|
| 11:28 |
Even with all of the snark, this game has been more entertaining than most other things I do with my time. Even blowout baseball is fun! |
| 11:29 |
literally can’t believe that of all pitchers, herrera is being singled out as problematic |
| 11:29 |
: No, that’s not the point. The point is that he doesn’t belong with Davis/Holland as part of the untouchables
|
| 11:29 |
: He’s good! He is! He also has a worrying thing about him, is all.
|
| 11:30 |
Apparently Holland is warming up. So Ned Yost also hates Greg Holland. |
| 11:30 |
: We did it!
|
| 11:30 |
: We have a World Series Game 7!
|
| 11:30 |
: Featuring Jeremy Guthrie and Tim Hudson!
|
| 11:31 |
How trashe will Eno get you at the winter meetings? |
| 11:31 |
: less than himself
|
| 11:31 |
And, since they consider Herrera as good as them, they may put too much trust in him tomorrow |
| 11:31 |
Thanks for chatting Jeff! Made this much more enjoyable for me |
| 11:31 |
: Thanks to everybody! This was somehow a pleasure!
|
| 11:31 |
Who is chatting tomorrow |
| 11:31 |
: Dave and I will be back!
|
| 11:32 |
: Take care everybody, and tomorrow will be crazy! or terrible
|
| 11:32 |
: be well and see you then!
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Is this Game Two or Game Six blog? There are two separate, distinct titles appearing on the blog. It’s slightly confusing. Call me crazy, but I am particularly interested in Game Six…
FanGraphs fails to expect the Spanish Inquisition.
In all fairness, no one does.