2014 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians by Carson Cistulli December 9, 2013 After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Boston / Philadelphia / St. Louis. Batters Just as was the case in 2013, Cleveland is likely to enter 2014 with a number of useful players rotating between multiple positions. Carlos Santana, for example, will very probably make starts at catcher, first base, and DH — even moreso at the latter two positions if Yan Gomes is able to approximate his 2013 campaign. Nick Swisher, as he did this past season, will likely record starts at first and right and DH. Mike Aviles — again, despite not having a starting position, per se — is a candidate to make a number of appearances defensively at third and short. As for right-handed-batting Ryan Raburn and Drew Stubbs, their roles are perhaps less clear than in the recently completed season — at least so long as both of them are employed by the Indians. While the former makes little enough ($2.25 million) for the club to retain him in merely an outfield platoon (in which role he posted a 2.5 WAR in 2013), Stubbs is projected to make about $1.5 million more than that via arbitration and is probably regarded by some teams as a possible starting option. Cleveland tendered him a contract recently, but it wouldn’t be surprising to find him involved in a deal (for pitching help, perhaps) at some point in the near future. Pitchers Cleveland entered 2013 with what appeared to be an alarming lack of quality in the rotation. “Appeared,” I say. In fact, with the return to form of Ubaldo Jimenez and (even more significantly) Scott Kazmir, the emergence of Corey Kluber, and the development of Danny Salazar — with all that, the roation became a decided strength for the club. By the end of the season, it was possible for manager Terry Francona to utilize Justin Masterson as a relief ace upon the side-armer’s return from injury. The current offseason has seen the departures both of Jimenez and Kazmir, however, to free agency (and, in Kazmir’s case, on to Oakland) thus creating rotation trouble for Cleveland again as 2014 approaches. As noted above, a surplus of outfield depth might be one means to adding another starting pitcher. If Cleveland has designs on the playoffs again, then some sort of acquisition likely necessary. As for the bullpen, it was not a strength in 2013, recording fewer than two wins as a group. There’s a possible instance of real-live addition by subtraction here, however: closer Chris Perez, since released, posted a -0.9 WAR, worst among the club’s relief corps. Bench/Prospects As noted above, a number of players not expressly included on the depth chart below are still likely to record significant playing time, including (but not limited to) Mike Aviles, Ryan Raburn, and Drew Stubbs. Jason Giambi, meanwhile — re-signed already for 2014 — is another candidate to receive at-bats, even if ZiPS isn’t entirely enthusiastic about the outcome of this at-bats. Among prospects, both of Cleveland’s young middle-infield tandem, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, are projected to record something better than replacement level. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Clevelanders, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Jason Kipnis L 27 2B 659 88 152 29 6 17 83 25 6 Carlos Santana B 28 1B 608 77 131 33 2 21 81 4 2 Yan Gomes R 26 C 406 49 96 22 2 13 48 2 0 Michael Bourn L 31 CF 642 83 150 23 7 6 51 34 12 Asdrubal Cabrera B 28 SS 609 75 142 33 2 17 75 11 4 Lonnie Chisenhall L 25 3B 461 55 110 23 2 13 57 2 0 Nick Swisher B 33 1B 583 66 124 26 1 18 66 1 1 Francisco Lindor B 20 SS 539 59 120 21 4 4 38 18 9 Michael Brantley L 27 LF 619 73 156 29 4 9 68 15 6 David Murphy L 32 LF 457 46 107 24 2 11 45 7 4 Jose Ramirez B 21 2B 506 60 125 17 4 4 38 22 12 Ezequiel Carrera L 27 CF 567 64 131 18 5 4 42 33 9 Mike Aviles R 33 3B 465 54 113 20 1 10 52 12 7 Ronny Rodriguez R 22 SS 530 56 121 21 4 11 54 9 5 Drew Stubbs R 29 RF 540 68 108 19 2 12 46 23 5 Nate Spears L 29 2B 366 38 71 14 2 6 31 6 2 Ryan Raburn R 33 RF 317 36 67 18 1 11 41 1 1 Kelly Shoppach R 34 C 210 20 36 8 0 6 18 0 0 Lou Marson R 28 C 188 20 35 7 1 1 8 3 1 Cedric Hunter L 26 LF 418 46 94 20 3 7 44 6 4 Tyler Naquin L 23 CF 464 48 99 19 3 7 40 9 10 Matt LaPorta R 29 1B 373 38 80 17 1 12 45 0 1 Tim Fedroff L 27 CF 586 61 128 17 4 5 46 11 6 Jason Giambi L 43 DH 165 15 30 7 0 5 22 0 1 Ryan Rohlinger R 30 3B 410 39 81 14 1 5 31 2 2 Jeremy Hermida L 30 RF 431 43 84 16 2 10 40 1 1 Jason Kubel L 32 LF 405 39 81 16 1 14 57 0 1 Erik Gonzalez R 22 3B 469 45 98 20 4 6 41 8 5 Luis Hernandez B 30 2B 381 31 82 12 2 4 30 5 3 Omir Santos R 33 C 203 15 43 7 1 2 16 0 0 Jesus Aguilar R 24 1B 580 60 121 25 1 16 69 0 1 Dorssys Paulino R 19 SS 469 46 101 21 2 6 40 10 7 Matt Carson R 32 RF 500 52 105 22 1 12 46 9 3 Chun-Hsiu Chen R 25 1B 530 52 108 22 2 10 52 5 2 Carlos Moncrief L 25 RF 515 52 98 20 4 12 47 11 6 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Jason Kipnis 659 9.7% 20.5% .158 .311 .263 .337 .421 .334 Carlos Santana 608 15.0% 18.8% .197 .290 .258 .370 .455 .356 Yan Gomes 406 5.9% 23.4% .176 .311 .259 .313 .435 .327 Michael Bourn 642 7.6% 21.8% .095 .327 .257 .317 .352 .299 Asdrubal Cabrera 609 6.9% 18.6% .160 .295 .258 .318 .418 .320 Lonnie Chisenhall 461 5.4% 19.5% .155 .298 .258 .307 .413 .315 Nick Swisher 583 12.2% 22.3% .163 .295 .247 .342 .410 .330 Francisco Lindor 539 7.2% 16.5% .084 .291 .245 .307 .329 .281 Michael Brantley 619 7.3% 11.6% .113 .302 .278 .331 .391 .314 David Murphy 457 8.1% 14.9% .146 .282 .257 .317 .403 .313 Jose Ramirez 506 5.5% 10.5% .079 .292 .267 .308 .346 .287 Ezequiel Carrera 567 5.8% 19.0% .077 .311 .252 .301 .329 .283 Mike Aviles 465 3.9% 12.5% .120 .277 .261 .289 .381 .289 Ronny Rodriguez 530 2.5% 20.2% .122 .281 .239 .260 .361 .269 Drew Stubbs 540 8.7% 30.9% .122 .313 .223 .295 .345 .288 Nate Spears 366 8.7% 23.5% .110 .274 .218 .291 .328 .276 Ryan Raburn 317 7.3% 26.5% .185 .289 .233 .297 .418 .310 Kelly Shoppach 210 7.6% 36.2% .140 .288 .195 .279 .335 .271 Lou Marson 188 11.7% 23.4% .073 .286 .215 .310 .288 .276 Cedric Hunter 418 6.7% 13.9% .123 .271 .245 .298 .368 .291 Tyler Naquin 464 5.2% 27.8% .106 .309 .229 .276 .335 .267 Matt LaPorta 373 6.7% 21.7% .162 .271 .235 .292 .397 .300 Tim Fedroff 586 8.0% 21.5% .075 .306 .242 .304 .317 .277 Jason Giambi 165 11.5% 26.7% .156 .266 .213 .315 .369 .301 Ryan Rohlinger 410 7.3% 20.5% .084 .270 .221 .286 .305 .262 Jeremy Hermida 431 9.0% 30.4% .129 .298 .217 .292 .346 .284 Jason Kubel 405 9.4% 29.6% .165 .289 .223 .296 .388 .294 Erik Gonzalez 469 3.4% 26.4% .103 .288 .219 .246 .322 .248 Luis Hernandez 381 3.9% 17.8% .079 .272 .231 .263 .310 .248 Omir Santos 203 2.0% 22.7% .078 .279 .223 .244 .301 .238 Jesus Aguilar 580 6.7% 28.3% .141 .296 .228 .286 .369 .288 Dorssys Paulino 469 4.1% 23.9% .097 .294 .230 .266 .327 .258 Matt Carson 500 5.0% 28.0% .130 .296 .226 .274 .356 .277 Chun-Hsiu Chen 530 7.4% 30.8% .116 .313 .224 .285 .340 .279 Carlos Moncrief 515 7.2% 32.4% .135 .291 .208 .267 .343 .270 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Jason Kipnis 659 5.5 114 -1 4.0 Ray Durham Carlos Santana 608 6.1 133 -2 3.1 Mark Teixeira Yan Gomes 406 5.0 110 2 3.1 Dave Engle Michael Bourn 642 4.2 90 8 2.9 Vince Coleman Asdrubal Cabrera 609 4.9 107 -7 2.8 Khalil Greene Lonnie Chisenhall 461 4.7 102 1 2.1 Kevin Kouzmanoff Nick Swisher 583 5.0 113 3 2.1 Ken Henderson Francisco Lindor 539 3.6 81 4 1.8 Omar Infante Michael Brantley 619 4.9 105 0 1.8 Del Unser David Murphy 457 4.6 103 5 1.7 Derek Lee Jose Ramirez 506 3.9 86 4 1.5 Harold Reynolds Ezequiel Carrera 567 3.9 79 2 1.5 Alex Sanchez Mike Aviles 465 4.0 89 1 1.2 Billy Martin Ronny Rodriguez 530 3.3 74 -1 0.7 Luis Hernandez Drew Stubbs 540 3.8 81 3 0.7 Justin Ruggiano Nate Spears 366 3.4 76 -1 0.5 Trace Coquillette Ryan Raburn 317 4.3 101 -4 0.4 Gene Schall Kelly Shoppach 210 3.1 74 -2 0.4 George Mitterwald Lou Marson 188 3.1 72 -2 0.3 Erik Pappas Cedric Hunter 418 3.9 88 0 0.3 David Murphy Tyler Naquin 464 3.0 73 1 0.2 Kevin Wiggins Matt LaPorta 373 4.0 94 -3 0.2 Chris Widger Tim Fedroff 586 3.4 77 -6 0.2 Kevin Koslofski Jason Giambi 165 3.8 94 -2 0.1 Harmon Killebrew Ryan Rohlinger 410 3.0 69 2 0.1 Keith Johns Jeremy Hermida 431 3.5 81 -3 0.0 Orsino Hill Jason Kubel 405 3.9 93 -4 0.0 Damon Minor Erik Gonzalez 469 2.7 60 4 -0.2 Santiago Henry Luis Hernandez 381 2.8 62 -1 -0.3 Jose Olmeda Omir Santos 203 2.6 54 -3 -0.4 Frank Charles Jesus Aguilar 580 3.7 85 -1 -0.4 Jon Benick Dorssys Paulino 469 3.0 68 -7 -0.4 Diory Hernandez Matt Carson 500 3.5 77 -3 -0.5 Chad Mottola Chun-Hsiu Chen 530 3.4 77 -2 -0.9 Rick Sofield Carlos Moncrief 515 3.1 72 -4 -1.0 Brian Dubose *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Ubaldo Jimenez R 30 30 30 173.0 190 73 16 154 75 70 Justin Masterson R 29 32 30 195.3 179 72 15 180 88 82 Danny Salazar R 24 26 26 153.0 162 55 15 141 67 63 Corey Kluber R 28 26 26 161.0 148 38 18 162 77 72 Zach McAllister R 26 27 27 153.3 113 44 13 160 74 69 Scott Kazmir L 30 17 17 90.7 89 32 11 90 46 43 Cody Allen R 25 73 0 69.0 82 27 7 60 28 26 Bryan Shaw R 26 72 0 73.0 73 27 6 64 30 28 Vinnie Pestano R 29 60 0 57.0 66 24 6 49 25 23 Josh Tomlin R 29 17 15 80.3 46 14 11 89 45 42 C.C. Lee R 27 31 0 33.3 35 14 3 31 15 14 Rich Hill L 34 43 0 31.7 38 17 3 27 15 14 Matt Albers R 31 57 0 60.0 48 24 6 58 29 27 Marc Rzepczynski L 28 69 0 61.0 49 25 6 60 30 28 Austin Adams R 27 46 0 55.0 61 29 6 50 28 26 Trey Haley R 24 36 0 43.7 41 31 3 40 22 21 Blake Wood R 28 38 0 40.7 36 23 4 40 21 20 Matt Capps R 30 28 0 26.3 17 6 4 29 15 14 Clay Rapada L 33 50 0 32.7 26 16 4 33 18 17 J.C. Romero L 38 22 0 19.0 14 9 3 21 12 11 Giovanni Soto L 23 15 10 51.7 39 28 7 54 32 30 Brett Myers R 33 31 10 76.7 57 21 13 83 45 42 Chris Jakubauskas R 35 24 5 48.3 31 21 5 54 29 27 Chris Perez R 28 61 0 58.3 57 21 9 57 31 29 Nick Hagadone L 28 52 0 55.7 56 32 6 52 30 28 Carlos Carrasco R 27 26 21 115.3 85 43 15 127 70 65 Preston Guilmet R 26 54 0 59.0 46 19 7 62 32 30 T.J. House L 24 27 27 145.3 96 65 17 162 89 83 Scott Barnes L 26 33 5 59.7 55 34 9 60 37 35 Bryan Price R 27 41 1 65.0 51 24 9 69 39 36 Frank Herrmann R 30 41 0 52.3 36 19 8 59 32 30 Mike Zagurski L 31 49 0 51.0 50 31 8 51 32 30 Boof Bonser R 32 13 10 51.3 25 28 8 61 37 35 Jerry Gil R 31 43 0 49.7 35 32 6 54 33 31 J.C. Ramirez R 25 50 0 68.3 48 38 9 75 44 41 Trevor Bauer R 23 25 25 125.3 104 97 18 131 87 81 Joe Martinez R 31 27 20 126.0 66 40 20 155 87 81 Tyler Cloyd R 27 30 27 152.3 99 48 32 184 110 103 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Ubaldo Jimenez 173.0 746 25.5% 9.8% .298 3.64 3.67 94 95 Justin Masterson 195.3 838 21.4% 8.6% .296 3.78 3.82 97 98 Danny Salazar 153.0 655 24.7% 8.4% .303 3.71 3.72 96 96 Corey Kluber 161.0 683 21.7% 5.6% .305 4.02 3.79 104 98 Zach McAllister 153.3 664 17.0% 6.6% .301 4.05 3.93 104 101 Scott Kazmir 90.7 394 22.6% 8.1% .305 4.27 4.12 110 106 Cody Allen 69.0 294 27.9% 9.2% .299 3.39 3.42 87 88 Bryan Shaw 73.0 310 23.5% 8.7% .290 3.45 3.61 89 93 Vinnie Pestano 57.0 244 27.0% 9.8% .297 3.63 3.77 94 97 Josh Tomlin 80.3 344 13.4% 4.1% .288 4.71 4.54 121 117 C.C. Lee 33.3 145 24.2% 9.7% .308 3.78 3.86 97 99 Rich Hill 31.7 139 27.3% 12.2% .300 3.98 3.60 103 93 Matt Albers 60.0 262 18.3% 9.2% .286 4.05 4.25 104 109 Marc Rzepczynski 61.0 268 18.3% 9.3% .293 4.13 4.30 106 111 Austin Adams 55.0 244 25.0% 11.9% .303 4.25 4.24 110 109 Trey Haley 43.7 202 20.3% 15.3% .296 4.33 4.56 112 118 Blake Wood 40.7 185 19.4% 12.4% .300 4.43 4.48 114 115 Matt Capps 26.3 114 14.9% 5.3% .291 4.78 4.71 123 122 Clay Rapada 32.7 147 17.7% 10.9% .293 4.68 5.00 121 129 J.C. Romero 19.0 87 16.1% 10.3% .305 5.21 5.66 134 146 Giovanni Soto 51.7 237 16.4% 11.8% .294 5.23 5.40 135 139 Brett Myers 76.7 334 17.1% 6.3% .290 4.93 4.92 127 127 Chris Jakubauskas 48.3 220 14.1% 9.5% .306 5.03 4.84 130 125 Chris Perez 58.3 253 22.5% 8.3% .295 4.47 4.53 115 117 Nick Hagadone 55.7 251 22.3% 12.7% .297 4.53 4.51 117 116 Carlos Carrasco 115.3 516 16.5% 8.3% .304 5.07 4.76 131 123 Preston Guilmet 59.0 258 17.8% 7.4% .301 4.58 4.40 118 113 T.J. House 145.3 663 14.5% 9.8% .305 5.14 5.07 133 131 Scott Barnes 59.7 273 20.1% 12.4% .300 5.28 5.42 136 140 Bryan Price 65.0 288 17.7% 8.3% .300 4.98 4.87 128 126 Frank Herrmann 52.3 235 15.3% 8.1% .300 5.16 5.10 133 132 Mike Zagurski 51.0 235 21.3% 13.2% .301 5.29 5.36 136 138 Boof Bonser 51.3 243 10.3% 11.5% .298 6.14 6.27 158 162 Jerry Gil 49.7 235 14.9% 13.6% .302 5.62 5.56 145 143 J.C. Ramirez 68.3 318 15.1% 12.0% .300 5.40 5.37 139 138 Trevor Bauer 125.3 604 17.2% 16.1% .301 5.82 6.09 150 157 Joe Martinez 126.0 573 11.5% 7.0% .308 5.79 5.50 149 142 Tyler Cloyd 152.3 689 14.4% 7.0% .303 6.09 5.86 157 151 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Ubaldo Jimenez 173.0 9.88 3.80 0.83 104 2.5 Bobby Witt Justin Masterson 195.3 8.25 3.32 0.69 100 2.4 Tom Gordon Danny Salazar 153.0 9.53 3.24 0.88 102 2.1 Tim Hudson Corey Kluber 161.0 8.29 2.13 1.02 94 1.6 Charles Nagy Zach McAllister 153.3 6.63 2.58 0.76 93 1.4 Mike Scott Scott Kazmir 90.7 8.83 3.18 1.09 88 0.6 Randy Wolf Cody Allen 69.0 10.70 3.52 0.91 111 0.5 Mark Wohlers Bryan Shaw 73.0 9.00 3.33 0.74 109 0.5 Manny Delcarmen Vinnie Pestano 57.0 10.42 3.79 0.95 104 0.3 Jorge Vasquez Josh Tomlin 80.3 5.16 1.57 1.23 80 0.1 Vern Ruhle C.C. Lee 33.3 9.46 3.78 0.81 100 0.1 Charlie Hough Rich Hill 31.7 10.79 4.83 0.85 95 0.0 Marshall Bridges Matt Albers 60.0 7.20 3.60 0.90 93 0.0 Mike Koplove Marc Rzepczynski 61.0 7.23 3.69 0.89 91 -0.1 Matt Dunbar Austin Adams 55.0 9.98 4.75 0.98 89 -0.2 Ryan Bukvich Trey Haley 43.7 8.44 6.38 0.62 87 -0.2 Brad Voyles Blake Wood 40.7 7.96 5.09 0.88 85 -0.2 Marc Pisciotta Matt Capps 26.3 5.82 2.05 1.37 79 -0.2 Dave Eilers Clay Rapada 32.7 7.16 4.40 1.10 81 -0.3 Pedro Borbon J.C. Romero 19.0 6.63 4.26 1.42 72 -0.3 Pete Appleton Giovanni Soto 51.7 6.79 4.87 1.22 72 -0.3 Todd James Brett Myers 76.7 6.69 2.46 1.53 77 -0.3 Mark Ross Chris Jakubauskas 48.3 5.78 3.91 0.93 75 -0.3 Bob Scanlan Chris Perez 58.3 8.80 3.24 1.39 84 -0.3 Jim Mann Nick Hagadone 55.7 9.05 5.17 0.97 83 -0.3 Greg McCarthy Carlos Carrasco 115.3 6.63 3.36 1.17 74 -0.4 Mickey Callaway Preston Guilmet 59.0 7.02 2.90 1.07 83 -0.4 Justin Kaye T.J. House 145.3 5.95 4.03 1.05 73 -0.6 Greg Kubes Scott Barnes 59.7 8.29 5.13 1.36 72 -0.6 Mike Bumatay Bryan Price 65.0 7.06 3.32 1.25 76 -0.7 Jentry Beckstead Frank Herrmann 52.3 6.20 3.27 1.38 73 -0.7 Jason Karnuth Mike Zagurski 51.0 8.82 5.47 1.41 71 -0.8 Mark Davis Boof Bonser 51.3 4.39 4.91 1.40 62 -0.8 Evan Thomas Jerry Gil 49.7 6.34 5.79 1.09 67 -1.0 Jarod Juelsgaard J.C. Ramirez 68.3 6.33 5.01 1.19 70 -1.1 Sean Green Trevor Bauer 125.3 7.47 6.97 1.29 65 -1.5 Ivan Montane Joe Martinez 126.0 4.71 2.86 1.43 65 -1.5 R.A. Dickey Tyler Cloyd 152.3 5.85 2.84 1.89 62 -2.3 Kyle Middleton *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.