2014 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Boston / Philadelphia / St. Louis.

Batters
Just as was the case in 2013, Cleveland is likely to enter 2014 with a number of useful players rotating between multiple positions. Carlos Santana, for example, will very probably make starts at catcher, first base, and DH — even moreso at the latter two positions if Yan Gomes is able to approximate his 2013 campaign. Nick Swisher, as he did this past season, will likely record starts at first and right and DH. Mike Aviles — again, despite not having a starting position, per se — is a candidate to make a number of appearances defensively at third and short.

As for right-handed-batting Ryan Raburn and Drew Stubbs, their roles are perhaps less clear than in the recently completed season — at least so long as both of them are employed by the Indians. While the former makes little enough ($2.25 million) for the club to retain him in merely an outfield platoon (in which role he posted a 2.5 WAR in 2013), Stubbs is projected to make about $1.5 million more than that via arbitration and is probably regarded by some teams as a possible starting option. Cleveland tendered him a contract recently, but it wouldn’t be surprising to find him involved in a deal (for pitching help, perhaps) at some point in the near future.

Pitchers
Cleveland entered 2013 with what appeared to be an alarming lack of quality in the rotation. “Appeared,” I say. In fact, with the return to form of Ubaldo Jimenez and (even more significantly) Scott Kazmir, the emergence of Corey Kluber, and the development of Danny Salazar — with all that, the roation became a decided strength for the club. By the end of the season, it was possible for manager Terry Francona to utilize Justin Masterson as a relief ace upon the side-armer’s return from injury.

The current offseason has seen the departures both of Jimenez and Kazmir, however, to free agency (and, in Kazmir’s case, on to Oakland) thus creating rotation trouble for Cleveland again as 2014 approaches. As noted above, a surplus of outfield depth might be one means to adding another starting pitcher. If Cleveland has designs on the playoffs again, then some sort of acquisition likely necessary.

As for the bullpen, it was not a strength in 2013, recording fewer than two wins as a group. There’s a possible instance of real-live addition by subtraction here, however: closer Chris Perez, since released, posted a -0.9 WAR, worst among the club’s relief corps.

Bench/Prospects
As noted above, a number of players not expressly included on the depth chart below are still likely to record significant playing time, including (but not limited to) Mike Aviles, Ryan Raburn, and Drew Stubbs. Jason Giambi, meanwhile — re-signed already for 2014 — is another candidate to receive at-bats, even if ZiPS isn’t entirely enthusiastic about the outcome of this at-bats. Among prospects, both of Cleveland’s young middle-infield tandem, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, are projected to record something better than replacement level.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Clevelanders, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Jason Kipnis	L	27	2B	659	88	152	29	6	17	83	25	6
Carlos Santana	B	28	1B	608	77	131	33	2	21	81	4	2
Yan Gomes	R	26	C	406	49	96	22	2	13	48	2	0
Michael Bourn	L	31	CF	642	83	150	23	7	6	51	34	12
Asdrubal Cabrera	B	28	SS	609	75	142	33	2	17	75	11	4
Lonnie Chisenhall	L	25	3B	461	55	110	23	2	13	57	2	0
Nick Swisher	B	33	1B	583	66	124	26	1	18	66	1	1
Francisco Lindor	B	20	SS	539	59	120	21	4	4	38	18	9
Michael Brantley	L	27	LF	619	73	156	29	4	9	68	15	6
David Murphy	L	32	LF	457	46	107	24	2	11	45	7	4
Jose Ramirez	B	21	2B	506	60	125	17	4	4	38	22	12
Ezequiel Carrera	L	27	CF	567	64	131	18	5	4	42	33	9
Mike Aviles	R	33	3B	465	54	113	20	1	10	52	12	7
Ronny Rodriguez	R	22	SS	530	56	121	21	4	11	54	9	5
Drew Stubbs	R	29	RF	540	68	108	19	2	12	46	23	5
Nate Spears	L	29	2B	366	38	71	14	2	6	31	6	2
Ryan Raburn	R	33	RF	317	36	67	18	1	11	41	1	1
Kelly Shoppach	R	34	C	210	20	36	8	0	6	18	0	0
Lou Marson	R	28	C	188	20	35	7	1	1	8	3	1
Cedric Hunter	L	26	LF	418	46	94	20	3	7	44	6	4
Tyler Naquin	L	23	CF	464	48	99	19	3	7	40	9	10
Matt LaPorta	R	29	1B	373	38	80	17	1	12	45	0	1
Tim Fedroff	L	27	CF	586	61	128	17	4	5	46	11	6
Jason Giambi	L	43	DH	165	15	30	7	0	5	22	0	1
Ryan Rohlinger	R	30	3B	410	39	81	14	1	5	31	2	2
Jeremy Hermida	L	30	RF	431	43	84	16	2	10	40	1	1
Jason Kubel	L	32	LF	405	39	81	16	1	14	57	0	1
Erik Gonzalez	R	22	3B	469	45	98	20	4	6	41	8	5
Luis Hernandez	B	30	2B	381	31	82	12	2	4	30	5	3
Omir Santos	R	33	C	203	15	43	7	1	2	16	0	0
Jesus Aguilar	R	24	1B	580	60	121	25	1	16	69	0	1
Dorssys Paulino	R	19	SS	469	46	101	21	2	6	40	10	7
Matt Carson	R	32	RF	500	52	105	22	1	12	46	9	3
Chun-Hsiu Chen	R	25	1B	530	52	108	22	2	10	52	5	2
Carlos Moncrief	L	25	RF	515	52	98	20	4	12	47	11	6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jason Kipnis	659	9.7%	20.5%	.158	.311	.263	.337	.421	.334
Carlos Santana	608	15.0%	18.8%	.197	.290	.258	.370	.455	.356
Yan Gomes	406	5.9%	23.4%	.176	.311	.259	.313	.435	.327
Michael Bourn	642	7.6%	21.8%	.095	.327	.257	.317	.352	.299
Asdrubal Cabrera	609	6.9%	18.6%	.160	.295	.258	.318	.418	.320
Lonnie Chisenhall	461	5.4%	19.5%	.155	.298	.258	.307	.413	.315
Nick Swisher	583	12.2%	22.3%	.163	.295	.247	.342	.410	.330
Francisco Lindor	539	7.2%	16.5%	.084	.291	.245	.307	.329	.281
Michael Brantley	619	7.3%	11.6%	.113	.302	.278	.331	.391	.314
David Murphy	457	8.1%	14.9%	.146	.282	.257	.317	.403	.313
Jose Ramirez	506	5.5%	10.5%	.079	.292	.267	.308	.346	.287
Ezequiel Carrera	567	5.8%	19.0%	.077	.311	.252	.301	.329	.283
Mike Aviles	465	3.9%	12.5%	.120	.277	.261	.289	.381	.289
Ronny Rodriguez	530	2.5%	20.2%	.122	.281	.239	.260	.361	.269
Drew Stubbs	540	8.7%	30.9%	.122	.313	.223	.295	.345	.288
Nate Spears	366	8.7%	23.5%	.110	.274	.218	.291	.328	.276
Ryan Raburn	317	7.3%	26.5%	.185	.289	.233	.297	.418	.310
Kelly Shoppach	210	7.6%	36.2%	.140	.288	.195	.279	.335	.271
Lou Marson	188	11.7%	23.4%	.073	.286	.215	.310	.288	.276
Cedric Hunter	418	6.7%	13.9%	.123	.271	.245	.298	.368	.291
Tyler Naquin	464	5.2%	27.8%	.106	.309	.229	.276	.335	.267
Matt LaPorta	373	6.7%	21.7%	.162	.271	.235	.292	.397	.300
Tim Fedroff	586	8.0%	21.5%	.075	.306	.242	.304	.317	.277
Jason Giambi	165	11.5%	26.7%	.156	.266	.213	.315	.369	.301
Ryan Rohlinger	410	7.3%	20.5%	.084	.270	.221	.286	.305	.262
Jeremy Hermida	431	9.0%	30.4%	.129	.298	.217	.292	.346	.284
Jason Kubel	405	9.4%	29.6%	.165	.289	.223	.296	.388	.294
Erik Gonzalez	469	3.4%	26.4%	.103	.288	.219	.246	.322	.248
Luis Hernandez	381	3.9%	17.8%	.079	.272	.231	.263	.310	.248
Omir Santos	203	2.0%	22.7%	.078	.279	.223	.244	.301	.238
Jesus Aguilar	580	6.7%	28.3%	.141	.296	.228	.286	.369	.288
Dorssys Paulino	469	4.1%	23.9%	.097	.294	.230	.266	.327	.258
Matt Carson	500	5.0%	28.0%	.130	.296	.226	.274	.356	.277
Chun-Hsiu Chen	530	7.4%	30.8%	.116	.313	.224	.285	.340	.279
Carlos Moncrief	515	7.2%	32.4%	.135	.291	.208	.267	.343	.270

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Jason Kipnis	659	5.5	114	-1	4.0	Ray Durham
Carlos Santana	608	6.1	133	-2	3.1	Mark Teixeira
Yan Gomes	406	5.0	110	2	3.1	Dave Engle
Michael Bourn	642	4.2	90	8	2.9	Vince Coleman
Asdrubal Cabrera	609	4.9	107	-7	2.8	Khalil Greene
Lonnie Chisenhall	461	4.7	102	1	2.1	Kevin Kouzmanoff
Nick Swisher	583	5.0	113	3	2.1	Ken Henderson
Francisco Lindor	539	3.6	81	4	1.8	Omar Infante
Michael Brantley	619	4.9	105	0	1.8	Del Unser
David Murphy	457	4.6	103	5	1.7	Derek Lee
Jose Ramirez	506	3.9	86	4	1.5	Harold Reynolds
Ezequiel Carrera	567	3.9	79	2	1.5	Alex Sanchez
Mike Aviles	465	4.0	89	1	1.2	Billy Martin
Ronny Rodriguez	530	3.3	74	-1	0.7	Luis Hernandez
Drew Stubbs	540	3.8	81	3	0.7	Justin Ruggiano
Nate Spears	366	3.4	76	-1	0.5	Trace Coquillette
Ryan Raburn	317	4.3	101	-4	0.4	Gene Schall
Kelly Shoppach	210	3.1	74	-2	0.4	George Mitterwald
Lou Marson	188	3.1	72	-2	0.3	Erik Pappas
Cedric Hunter	418	3.9	88	0	0.3	David Murphy
Tyler Naquin	464	3.0	73	1	0.2	Kevin Wiggins
Matt LaPorta	373	4.0	94	-3	0.2	Chris Widger
Tim Fedroff	586	3.4	77	-6	0.2	Kevin Koslofski
Jason Giambi	165	3.8	94	-2	0.1	Harmon Killebrew
Ryan Rohlinger	410	3.0	69	2	0.1	Keith Johns
Jeremy Hermida	431	3.5	81	-3	0.0	Orsino Hill
Jason Kubel	405	3.9	93	-4	0.0	Damon Minor
Erik Gonzalez	469	2.7	60	4	-0.2	Santiago Henry
Luis Hernandez	381	2.8	62	-1	-0.3	Jose Olmeda
Omir Santos	203	2.6	54	-3	-0.4	Frank Charles
Jesus Aguilar	580	3.7	85	-1	-0.4	Jon Benick
Dorssys Paulino	469	3.0	68	-7	-0.4	Diory Hernandez
Matt Carson	500	3.5	77	-3	-0.5	Chad Mottola
Chun-Hsiu Chen	530	3.4	77	-2	-0.9	Rick Sofield
Carlos Moncrief	515	3.1	72	-4	-1.0	Brian Dubose

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Ubaldo Jimenez	R	30	30	30	173.0	190	73	16	154	75	70
Justin Masterson	R	29	32	30	195.3	179	72	15	180	88	82
Danny Salazar	R	24	26	26	153.0	162	55	15	141	67	63
Corey Kluber	R	28	26	26	161.0	148	38	18	162	77	72
Zach McAllister	R	26	27	27	153.3	113	44	13	160	74	69
Scott Kazmir	L	30	17	17	90.7	89	32	11	90	46	43
Cody Allen	R	25	73	0	69.0	82	27	7	60	28	26
Bryan Shaw	R	26	72	0	73.0	73	27	6	64	30	28
Vinnie Pestano	R	29	60	0	57.0	66	24	6	49	25	23
Josh Tomlin	R	29	17	15	80.3	46	14	11	89	45	42
C.C. Lee	R	27	31	0	33.3	35	14	3	31	15	14
Rich Hill	L	34	43	0	31.7	38	17	3	27	15	14
Matt Albers	R	31	57	0	60.0	48	24	6	58	29	27
Marc Rzepczynski	L	28	69	0	61.0	49	25	6	60	30	28
Austin Adams	R	27	46	0	55.0	61	29	6	50	28	26
Trey Haley	R	24	36	0	43.7	41	31	3	40	22	21
Blake Wood	R	28	38	0	40.7	36	23	4	40	21	20
Matt Capps	R	30	28	0	26.3	17	6	4	29	15	14
Clay Rapada	L	33	50	0	32.7	26	16	4	33	18	17
J.C. Romero	L	38	22	0	19.0	14	9	3	21	12	11
Giovanni Soto	L	23	15	10	51.7	39	28	7	54	32	30
Brett Myers	R	33	31	10	76.7	57	21	13	83	45	42
Chris Jakubauskas	R	35	24	5	48.3	31	21	5	54	29	27
Chris Perez	R	28	61	0	58.3	57	21	9	57	31	29
Nick Hagadone	L	28	52	0	55.7	56	32	6	52	30	28
Carlos Carrasco	R	27	26	21	115.3	85	43	15	127	70	65
Preston Guilmet	R	26	54	0	59.0	46	19	7	62	32	30
T.J. House	L	24	27	27	145.3	96	65	17	162	89	83
Scott Barnes	L	26	33	5	59.7	55	34	9	60	37	35
Bryan Price	R	27	41	1	65.0	51	24	9	69	39	36
Frank Herrmann	R	30	41	0	52.3	36	19	8	59	32	30
Mike Zagurski	L	31	49	0	51.0	50	31	8	51	32	30
Boof Bonser	R	32	13	10	51.3	25	28	8	61	37	35
Jerry Gil	R	31	43	0	49.7	35	32	6	54	33	31
J.C. Ramirez	R	25	50	0	68.3	48	38	9	75	44	41
Trevor Bauer	R	23	25	25	125.3	104	97	18	131	87	81
Joe Martinez	R	31	27	20	126.0	66	40	20	155	87	81
Tyler Cloyd	R	27	30	27	152.3	99	48	32	184	110	103

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Ubaldo Jimenez	173.0	746	25.5%	9.8%	.298	3.64	3.67	94	95
Justin Masterson	195.3	838	21.4%	8.6%	.296	3.78	3.82	97	98
Danny Salazar	153.0	655	24.7%	8.4%	.303	3.71	3.72	96	96
Corey Kluber	161.0	683	21.7%	5.6%	.305	4.02	3.79	104	98
Zach McAllister	153.3	664	17.0%	6.6%	.301	4.05	3.93	104	101
Scott Kazmir	90.7	394	22.6%	8.1%	.305	4.27	4.12	110	106
Cody Allen	69.0	294	27.9%	9.2%	.299	3.39	3.42	87	88
Bryan Shaw	73.0	310	23.5%	8.7%	.290	3.45	3.61	89	93
Vinnie Pestano	57.0	244	27.0%	9.8%	.297	3.63	3.77	94	97
Josh Tomlin	80.3	344	13.4%	4.1%	.288	4.71	4.54	121	117
C.C. Lee	33.3	145	24.2%	9.7%	.308	3.78	3.86	97	99
Rich Hill	31.7	139	27.3%	12.2%	.300	3.98	3.60	103	93
Matt Albers	60.0	262	18.3%	9.2%	.286	4.05	4.25	104	109
Marc Rzepczynski	61.0	268	18.3%	9.3%	.293	4.13	4.30	106	111
Austin Adams	55.0	244	25.0%	11.9%	.303	4.25	4.24	110	109
Trey Haley	43.7	202	20.3%	15.3%	.296	4.33	4.56	112	118
Blake Wood	40.7	185	19.4%	12.4%	.300	4.43	4.48	114	115
Matt Capps	26.3	114	14.9%	5.3%	.291	4.78	4.71	123	122
Clay Rapada	32.7	147	17.7%	10.9%	.293	4.68	5.00	121	129
J.C. Romero	19.0	87	16.1%	10.3%	.305	5.21	5.66	134	146
Giovanni Soto	51.7	237	16.4%	11.8%	.294	5.23	5.40	135	139
Brett Myers	76.7	334	17.1%	6.3%	.290	4.93	4.92	127	127
Chris Jakubauskas	48.3	220	14.1%	9.5%	.306	5.03	4.84	130	125
Chris Perez	58.3	253	22.5%	8.3%	.295	4.47	4.53	115	117
Nick Hagadone	55.7	251	22.3%	12.7%	.297	4.53	4.51	117	116
Carlos Carrasco	115.3	516	16.5%	8.3%	.304	5.07	4.76	131	123
Preston Guilmet	59.0	258	17.8%	7.4%	.301	4.58	4.40	118	113
T.J. House	145.3	663	14.5%	9.8%	.305	5.14	5.07	133	131
Scott Barnes	59.7	273	20.1%	12.4%	.300	5.28	5.42	136	140
Bryan Price	65.0	288	17.7%	8.3%	.300	4.98	4.87	128	126
Frank Herrmann	52.3	235	15.3%	8.1%	.300	5.16	5.10	133	132
Mike Zagurski	51.0	235	21.3%	13.2%	.301	5.29	5.36	136	138
Boof Bonser	51.3	243	10.3%	11.5%	.298	6.14	6.27	158	162
Jerry Gil	49.7	235	14.9%	13.6%	.302	5.62	5.56	145	143
J.C. Ramirez	68.3	318	15.1%	12.0%	.300	5.40	5.37	139	138
Trevor Bauer	125.3	604	17.2%	16.1%	.301	5.82	6.09	150	157
Joe Martinez	126.0	573	11.5%	7.0%	.308	5.79	5.50	149	142
Tyler Cloyd	152.3	689	14.4%	7.0%	.303	6.09	5.86	157	151

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Ubaldo Jimenez	173.0	9.88	3.80	0.83	104	2.5	Bobby Witt
Justin Masterson	195.3	8.25	3.32	0.69	100	2.4	Tom Gordon
Danny Salazar	153.0	9.53	3.24	0.88	102	2.1	Tim Hudson
Corey Kluber	161.0	8.29	2.13	1.02	94	1.6	Charles Nagy
Zach McAllister	153.3	6.63	2.58	0.76	93	1.4	Mike Scott
Scott Kazmir	90.7	8.83	3.18	1.09	88	0.6	Randy Wolf
Cody Allen	69.0	10.70	3.52	0.91	111	0.5	Mark Wohlers
Bryan Shaw	73.0	9.00	3.33	0.74	109	0.5	Manny Delcarmen
Vinnie Pestano	57.0	10.42	3.79	0.95	104	0.3	Jorge Vasquez
Josh Tomlin	80.3	5.16	1.57	1.23	80	0.1	Vern Ruhle
C.C. Lee	33.3	9.46	3.78	0.81	100	0.1	Charlie Hough
Rich Hill	31.7	10.79	4.83	0.85	95	0.0	Marshall Bridges
Matt Albers	60.0	7.20	3.60	0.90	93	0.0	Mike Koplove
Marc Rzepczynski	61.0	7.23	3.69	0.89	91	-0.1	Matt Dunbar
Austin Adams	55.0	9.98	4.75	0.98	89	-0.2	Ryan Bukvich
Trey Haley	43.7	8.44	6.38	0.62	87	-0.2	Brad Voyles
Blake Wood	40.7	7.96	5.09	0.88	85	-0.2	Marc Pisciotta
Matt Capps	26.3	5.82	2.05	1.37	79	-0.2	Dave Eilers
Clay Rapada	32.7	7.16	4.40	1.10	81	-0.3	Pedro Borbon
J.C. Romero	19.0	6.63	4.26	1.42	72	-0.3	Pete Appleton
Giovanni Soto	51.7	6.79	4.87	1.22	72	-0.3	Todd James
Brett Myers	76.7	6.69	2.46	1.53	77	-0.3	Mark Ross
Chris Jakubauskas	48.3	5.78	3.91	0.93	75	-0.3	Bob Scanlan
Chris Perez	58.3	8.80	3.24	1.39	84	-0.3	Jim Mann
Nick Hagadone	55.7	9.05	5.17	0.97	83	-0.3	Greg McCarthy
Carlos Carrasco	115.3	6.63	3.36	1.17	74	-0.4	Mickey Callaway
Preston Guilmet	59.0	7.02	2.90	1.07	83	-0.4	Justin Kaye
T.J. House	145.3	5.95	4.03	1.05	73	-0.6	Greg Kubes
Scott Barnes	59.7	8.29	5.13	1.36	72	-0.6	Mike Bumatay
Bryan Price	65.0	7.06	3.32	1.25	76	-0.7	Jentry Beckstead
Frank Herrmann	52.3	6.20	3.27	1.38	73	-0.7	Jason Karnuth
Mike Zagurski	51.0	8.82	5.47	1.41	71	-0.8	Mark Davis
Boof Bonser	51.3	4.39	4.91	1.40	62	-0.8	Evan Thomas
Jerry Gil	49.7	6.34	5.79	1.09	67	-1.0	Jarod Juelsgaard
J.C. Ramirez	68.3	6.33	5.01	1.19	70	-1.1	Sean Green
Trevor Bauer	125.3	7.47	6.97	1.29	65	-1.5	Ivan Montane
Joe Martinez	126.0	4.71	2.86	1.43	65	-1.5	R.A. Dickey
Tyler Cloyd	152.3	5.85	2.84	1.89	62	-2.3	Kyle Middleton

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.