2014 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis.

Batters
Each of the four positions within Detroit’s opening-day infield this coming season will very likely be occupied by a different player than on opening day in 2013. Part of the reason for that is because of how Miguel Cabrera returns to first base, a role to which his defensive abilities are more well suited. Another part of the reason is owing to the departures both of Prince Fielder (via trade) and Omar Infante (via free agency) this offseason. Despite the changes, the probable infield contingent for 2014 (as depicted in the depth-chart image below) ought to rival, in terms of wins, any of those belonging to the last three iterations of the Detoit Tigers, each of which has qualified for the playoffs.

In a recent piece here, Jeff Sullivan explored possible destinations for free-agent outfielder Nelson Cruz. Detroit he classified as a “stretch” — making it actually one of the more likely clubs, relatively speaking, to sign Cruz. So far as ZiPS is concerned, corner outfield and designated hitter are the only positions at which Detroit is likely to receive below-average production.

Pitchers
There are few, if any, clubs which could have dealt a four-win pitcher this offseason, made basically no other alterations to its starting rotation, and still appeared likely to enter the 2014 season with a rotation full only of league-average starters or better. It appears as though Detroit is such a club, however. This isn’t to suggest, of course, that the trade of Doug Fister wasn’t curious in its way. It does suggest, though, that Detroit was working from a position of strength in this regard.

There is likely something to be learned about human behavior from Detroit’s relationship with Jose Valverde over the last year-plus. The club signed the gentleman reliever to a minor-league contract at the beginning of April, promoted him to the majors after just 3.0 innings of work at High-A Lakeland, and then re-installed him as closer before the beginning of May — this after Valverde demonstrated all manner of warning sign in 2012. None of this immediately concerns the Tigers bullpen in 2014 — unless Detroit acquires Valverde again, of course. Which, if they do that, he’ll pitch at replacement level, according to ZiPS.

Bench/Prospects
The Tigers aren’t presently teeming with what anyone would call a “surplus” of young talent. Nick Castellanos is decidedly the most impressive prospect in the system, and he’ll very likely be starting the season with the parent club. After Castellanos, there’s less in the way of impact talent, however. Catcher Bryan Holaday is rookie-eligible and looks promising as a backup catcher. Shortstop Eugenio Suarez is also not entirely without merit — but also unlikely to produce anything much in the majors in 2014.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Detroitoisie, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Miguel Cabrera	R	31	1B	648	92	177	32	1	38	119	3	1
Ian Kinsler	R	32	2B	629	84	151	32	3	15	68	16	9
Austin Jackson	R	27	CF	662	91	154	28	9	14	54	13	6
Alex Avila	L	27	C	455	43	92	19	2	13	55	1	0
Nick Castellanos	R	22	3B	643	67	166	31	3	18	64	5	3
Jose Iglesias	R	24	SS	520	48	126	15	2	5	38	11	5
Torii Hunter	R	38	RF	586	71	156	28	3	14	76	4	2
Andy Dirks	L	28	LF	455	57	111	19	3	11	41	9	2
Bryan Holaday	R	26	C	346	30	75	15	1	5	27	2	1
Ramon Cabrera	B	24	C	498	48	119	25	3	2	48	3	2
Victor Martinez	B	35	DH	516	52	137	27	0	12	69	1	1
Eugenio Suarez	R	22	SS	633	58	138	26	4	8	48	11	13
Steve Lombardozzi	B	25	2B	483	52	119	20	4	4	38	10	5
James Mccann	R	24	C	394	33	90	19	1	5	37	3	3
Don Kelly	L	34	3B	236	28	51	6	1	6	22	2	0
Daniel Fields	L	23	CF	508	49	120	21	4	7	42	20	8
Hernan Perez	R	23	2B	527	52	132	21	3	5	41	21	6
Rajai Davis	R	33	LF	410	52	98	18	3	5	33	39	10
Ronny Paulino	R	33	C	199	16	46	9	0	2	15	0	0
Ben Guez	R	27	RF	489	50	101	19	3	12	47	9	9
Ramon Santiago	B	34	2B	253	23	54	8	1	3	19	0	1
Mike Cervenak	R	37	3B	350	35	86	14	0	6	31	1	1
Danny Worth	R	28	2B	374	33	73	16	2	4	26	9	4
Craig Albernaz	R	31	C	122	10	23	4	0	1	7	1	0
Matt Tuiasosopo	R	28	LF	371	42	71	12	1	9	44	3	2
Brad Davis	R	31	C	249	21	49	11	1	3	22	2	0
Tyler Collins	L	24	LF	522	49	115	25	2	12	57	8	4
Steven Moya	L	22	RF	399	38	88	17	3	12	44	6	2
Mike Hessman	R	36	1B	416	49	78	20	0	20	59	0	1
Jordan Lennerton	L	28	1B	585	55	116	23	1	14	53	0	2
Francisco Martinez	R	23	3B	479	44	105	17	1	3	31	18	5
Kevin Russo	R	29	3B	457	38	96	20	2	3	32	10	5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Miguel Cabrera	648	12.5%	14.8%	.264	.324	.317	.404	.581	.403
Ian Kinsler	629	9.1%	11.0%	.149	.285	.271	.344	.420	.335
Austin Jackson	662	9.4%	23.6%	.150	.333	.262	.335	.412	.327
Alex Avila	455	13.2%	27.3%	.160	.311	.237	.340	.397	.325
Nick Castellanos	643	5.6%	18.2%	.152	.316	.277	.320	.429	.327
Jose Iglesias	520	4.8%	14.2%	.071	.303	.265	.311	.336	.286
Torii Hunter	586	4.6%	18.9%	.140	.334	.287	.325	.427	.328
Andy Dirks	455	6.8%	17.6%	.139	.305	.266	.320	.405	.318
Bryan Holaday	346	4.9%	19.9%	.102	.287	.237	.285	.339	.273
Ramon Cabrera	498	7.4%	12.2%	.082	.297	.262	.319	.344	.293
Victor Martinez	516	7.4%	9.3%	.134	.300	.291	.341	.425	.328
Eugenio Suarez	633	6.3%	23.2%	.100	.305	.239	.297	.339	.279
Steve Lombardozzi	483	4.8%	13.7%	.090	.303	.267	.307	.357	.288
James Mccann	394	3.6%	20.8%	.097	.296	.243	.277	.340	.271
Don Kelly	236	8.5%	14.4%	.124	.262	.243	.312	.367	.302
Daniel Fields	508	5.7%	26.2%	.107	.339	.255	.304	.362	.296
Hernan Perez	527	3.0%	14.8%	.084	.302	.265	.288	.349	.281
Rajai Davis	410	5.1%	17.3%	.103	.302	.257	.301	.360	.300
Ronny Paulino	199	5.5%	18.6%	.080	.295	.246	.286	.326	.269
Ben Guez	489	7.8%	25.6%	.140	.295	.231	.305	.371	.296
Ramon Santiago	253	7.5%	14.6%	.086	.277	.243	.309	.329	.278
Mike Cervenak	350	5.1%	12.6%	.098	.286	.265	.303	.363	.291
Danny Worth	374	7.5%	26.2%	.095	.290	.215	.278	.310	.263
Craig Albernaz	122	5.7%	25.4%	.063	.275	.207	.258	.270	.237
Matt Tuiasosopo	371	10.0%	29.6%	.126	.295	.217	.303	.343	.290
Brad Davis	249	5.2%	26.1%	.095	.277	.211	.254	.306	.250
Tyler Collins	522	6.1%	20.9%	.135	.283	.239	.291	.374	.293
Steven Moya	399	3.3%	31.8%	.155	.311	.230	.261	.385	.283
Mike Hessman	416	6.7%	33.9%	.210	.260	.205	.264	.415	.294
Jordan Lennerton	585	9.6%	28.9%	.128	.297	.221	.297	.349	.287
Francisco Martinez	479	5.0%	25.5%	.063	.316	.235	.278	.298	.260
Kevin Russo	457	5.0%	20.8%	.078	.283	.227	.271	.305	.256

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Miguel Cabrera	648	9.3	164	-4	5.3	Manny Ramirez
Ian Kinsler	629	5.3	106	4	3.5	Bill Doran
Austin Jackson	662	5.1	101	0	2.8	Marlon Byrd
Alex Avila	455	4.8	100	-3	2.4	Chris Iannetta
Nick Castellanos	643	5.1	101	-6	2.0	Joe Crede
Jose Iglesias	520	3.9	76	7	1.7	Gary DiSarcina
Torii Hunter	586	5.3	102	-1	1.3	Lee Lacy
Andy Dirks	455	4.9	95	4	1.3	Dave Martinez
Bryan Holaday	346	3.4	69	5	1.1	Matt Morgan
Ramon Cabrera	498	4.0	80	-5	1.0	Steven Clevenger
Victor Martinez	516	5.5	107	0	0.9	David Segui
Eugenio Suarez	633	3.3	72	3	0.9	Marcus Lemon
Steve Lombardozzi	483	4.0	80	1	0.7	Alberto Gonzalez
James Mccann	394	3.3	67	2	0.6	Eli Whiteside
Don Kelly	236	4.2	84	-1	0.4	Dan Rohn
Daniel Fields	508	4.1	80	-4	0.4	Mike Neill
Hernan Perez	527	3.9	72	1	0.3	Gary Cates
Rajai Davis	410	4.5	79	1	0.3	Calvin Murray
Ronny Paulino	199	3.4	66	-1	0.1	Shawn W00t3n
Ben Guez	489	3.8	82	2	0.0	Mike Berger
Ramon Santiago	253	3.5	74	-1	0.0	Edgar Caceres
Mike Cervenak	350	4.0	80	-5	-0.2	Frank Malzone
Danny Worth	374	3.0	60	2	-0.2	Scott Sheldon
Craig Albernaz	122	2.5	44	-1	-0.3	Charlie Greene
Matt Tuiasosopo	371	3.5	75	0	-0.4	Mike Richardson
Brad Davis	249	2.8	51	-2	-0.4	Frank Charles
Tyler Collins	522	3.9	79	-2	-0.5	Rafael Alvarez
Steven Moya	399	3.6	72	-1	-0.7	Doug Frobel
Mike Hessman	416	3.7	81	-1	-0.7	Deron Johnson
Jordan Lennerton	585	3.5	75	3	-0.8	Todd Mensik
Francisco Martinez	479	3.1	57	-3	-0.9	Danny Ainge
Kevin Russo	457	2.9	56	-2	-1.0	Jhonny Carvajal

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Justin Verlander	R	31	32	32	216.7	225	60	19	186	79	74
Max Scherzer	R	29	31	31	193.7	225	55	21	165	77	72
Anibal Sanchez	R	30	30	30	184.3	186	52	18	175	77	72
Rick Porcello	R	25	32	29	175.7	129	41	18	194	91	85
Drew Smyly	L	25	25	25	135.0	127	41	16	130	65	61
Joe Nathan	R	39	57	0	52.7	61	16	4	43	18	17
Drew VerHagen	R	23	20	18	87.7	45	40	8	100	52	49
Al Alburquerque	R	28	48	0	49.0	71	33	6	38	22	21
Kyle Lobstein	L	24	27	27	139.3	99	64	16	158	87	81
Bruce Rondon	R	23	63	0	57.0	59	29	5	53	28	26
Ian Krol	L	23	60	0	56.3	51	17	7	56	28	26
Luke Putkonen	R	28	50	0	62.3	52	28	6	63	31	29
Octavio Dotel	R	40	27	0	26.0	24	8	2	25	12	11
Jose Valverde	R	36	49	0	45.7	40	21	5	44	24	22
Phil Coke	L	31	57	0	46.3	40	18	5	48	25	23
Blaine Hardy	L	27	36	4	72.0	60	32	10	76	42	39
Joba Chamberlain	R	28	38	0	37.7	33	15	5	39	21	20
Justin Miller	R	27	40	0	47.7	40	24	6	49	27	25
Jose Valdez	R	24	42	0	36.3	36	28	4	34	21	20
Jon Link	R	30	29	6	59.0	31	21	9	70	39	36
Jose Ortega	R	25	47	0	56.7	58	38	8	57	34	32
Melvin Mercedes	R	23	48	0	55.7	30	22	7	64	34	32
Evan Reed	R	28	43	0	55.7	41	30	6	61	34	32
Eduardo Sanchez	R	25	41	0	43.3	34	30	5	44	28	26
Michael Morrison	R	26	39	0	53.3	40	35	6	56	34	32
Jair Jurrjens	R	28	23	23	123.0	56	45	19	155	86	80
Jose Alvarez	L	25	28	23	131.3	78	44	24	159	91	85
Will Startup	L	29	32	0	52.3	28	19	9	63	36	34
Jeremy Bonderman	R	31	25	17	111.7	52	44	18	138	81	76
Robbie Weinhardt	R	28	38	0	63.0	36	31	10	75	45	42
Casey Crosby	L	25	19	19	87.7	61	75	13	100	68	64
Pat Misch	L	32	18	16	90.3	44	30	21	120	74	69
Shawn Hill	R	33	20	19	108.3	41	47	23	146	92	86

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Justin Verlander	216.7	896	25.1%	6.7%	.284	3.07	3.36	75	81
Max Scherzer	193.7	801	28.1%	6.9%	.291	3.35	3.42	81	83
Anibal Sanchez	184.3	780	23.8%	6.7%	.301	3.52	3.52	85	85
Rick Porcello	175.7	762	16.9%	5.4%	.309	4.35	4.02	106	97
Drew Smyly	135.0	576	22.0%	7.1%	.294	4.07	4.06	99	98
Joe Nathan	52.7	217	28.1%	7.4%	.289	2.91	2.95	71	71
Drew VerHagen	87.7	403	11.2%	9.9%	.302	5.03	5.08	122	123
Al Alburquerque	49.0	218	32.6%	15.1%	.302	3.86	4.07	94	99
Kyle Lobstein	139.3	640	15.5%	10.0%	.314	5.23	5.06	127	123
Bruce Rondon	57.0	253	23.3%	11.5%	.304	4.11	4.12	100	100
Ian Krol	56.3	242	21.1%	7.0%	.295	4.15	4.13	101	100
Luke Putkonen	62.3	278	18.7%	10.1%	.300	4.19	4.45	102	108
Octavio Dotel	26.0	111	21.6%	7.2%	.299	3.81	3.38	92	82
Jose Valverde	45.7	202	19.8%	10.4%	.293	4.34	4.54	105	110
Phil Coke	46.3	205	19.5%	8.8%	.303	4.47	3.87	108	94
Blaine Hardy	72.0	324	18.5%	9.9%	.304	4.87	5.06	118	123
Joba Chamberlain	37.7	167	19.7%	9.0%	.301	4.78	4.59	116	111
Justin Miller	47.7	216	18.5%	11.1%	.300	4.72	5.01	115	122
Jose Valdez	36.3	171	21.1%	16.4%	.297	4.95	5.27	120	128
Jon Link	59.0	268	11.6%	7.8%	.300	5.49	5.57	133	135
Jose Ortega	56.7	265	21.9%	14.3%	.312	5.08	5.27	123	128
Melvin Mercedes	55.7	253	11.9%	8.7%	.300	5.17	5.38	125	130
Evan Reed	55.7	258	15.9%	11.6%	.311	5.17	5.13	125	124
Eduardo Sanchez	43.3	204	16.7%	14.7%	.296	5.40	5.43	131	132
Michael Morrison	53.3	251	15.9%	13.9%	.300	5.40	5.52	131	134
Jair Jurrjens	123.0	569	9.8%	7.9%	.308	5.85	5.76	142	140
Jose Alvarez	131.3	597	13.1%	7.4%	.305	5.82	5.80	141	141
Will Startup	52.3	239	11.7%	8.0%	.300	5.85	5.79	142	141
Jeremy Bonderman	111.7	517	10.1%	8.5%	.302	6.13	5.82	149	141
Robbie Weinhardt	63.0	295	12.2%	10.5%	.304	6.00	6.01	146	146
Casey Crosby	87.7	438	13.9%	17.1%	.307	6.57	6.69	159	162
Pat Misch	90.3	421	10.5%	7.1%	.309	6.87	6.63	167	161
Shawn Hill	108.3	518	7.9%	9.1%	.308	7.14	6.92	173	168

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Justin Verlander	216.7	9.34	2.49	0.79	138	6.1	Roger Clemens
Max Scherzer	193.7	10.45	2.56	0.98	126	4.8	Kevin Appier
Anibal Sanchez	184.3	9.08	2.54	0.88	120	4.2	Rick Sutcliffe
Rick Porcello	175.7	6.61	2.10	0.92	97	2.2	Chris Holt
Drew Smyly	135.0	8.47	2.73	1.07	104	2.2	Jeff Francis
Joe Nathan	52.7	10.42	2.73	0.68	146	1.0	Larry Andersen
Drew VerHagen	87.7	4.62	4.10	0.82	84	0.4	Mike Torrez
Al Alburquerque	49.0	13.04	6.06	1.10	110	0.4	Ryne Duren
Kyle Lobstein	139.3	6.40	4.13	1.03	81	0.3	Harold Allen
Bruce Rondon	57.0	9.32	4.58	0.79	103	0.3	Saul Rivera
Ian Krol	56.3	8.15	2.72	1.12	102	0.2	Tom Gorman
Luke Putkonen	62.3	7.51	4.04	0.87	101	0.2	Roy Corcoran
Octavio Dotel	26.0	8.31	2.77	0.69	111	0.2	Doug Brocail
Jose Valverde	45.7	7.88	4.14	0.98	98	0.1	Rich DeLucia
Phil Coke	46.3	7.78	3.50	0.97	95	0.0	Eric Gunderson
Blaine Hardy	72.0	7.50	4.00	1.25	87	0.0	C.J. Nitkowski
Joba Chamberlain	37.7	7.88	3.58	1.19	89	-0.1	Derrick Turnbow
Justin Miller	47.7	7.55	4.53	1.13	90	-0.1	Matt Palmer
Jose Valdez	36.3	8.93	6.94	0.99	85	-0.2	Josh Banks
Jon Link	59.0	4.73	3.20	1.37	77	-0.3	Bob Scanlan
Jose Ortega	56.7	9.21	6.03	1.27	83	-0.4	Chris Schroder
Melvin Mercedes	55.7	4.85	3.55	1.13	82	-0.5	Jose Santiago
Evan Reed	55.7	6.62	4.85	0.97	82	-0.5	Ryan Baker
Eduardo Sanchez	43.3	7.07	6.24	1.04	78	-0.5	Jeff Smith
Michael Morrison	53.3	6.75	5.91	1.01	78	-0.6	Pete Sikaras
Jair Jurrjens	123.0	4.10	3.29	1.39	72	-0.7	Nelson Figueroa
Jose Alvarez	131.3	5.35	3.02	1.65	73	-0.7	John Shea
Will Startup	52.3	4.82	3.27	1.55	72	-0.9	Juan Alvarez
Jeremy Bonderman	111.7	4.19	3.55	1.45	69	-1.1	Ryan Jensen
Robbie Weinhardt	63.0	5.14	4.43	1.43	71	-1.1	Ryan Cummings
Casey Crosby	87.7	6.26	7.70	1.33	64	-1.2	Mike King
Pat Misch	90.3	4.39	2.99	2.09	62	-1.6	Rick Krivda
Shawn Hill	108.3	3.41	3.91	1.91	59	-2.3	Bill Dietrich

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.